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Flyingsottsman
Topic Author
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 9:06 am

Hello everyone, first of all I am sorry if a thread like this has been done before or threads like this. In the Christmas new Year peorid of 1982/83, I had my first ever trip to the USA in those days flying up from Australia we had to stop of at HNL for refueling and did our customs there, I remember seeing the big carriers there like Northwest Orient, Pam Am, TWA,Delta,United,Continental, etc etc, once we got to LAX, I remember seeing Western,Eastern, American Airlines, I saw the Branniff fleet parked at DFW after they went bankrupt. Though out the 80s, 90s I have traveled to the USA a number of times and up to my last trip in 2001, each couple of years some of the famous airlines have left out skys.

Pan Am - Liquidated
Eastern - Liquidated
Western merged into Delta
TWA merged into American
America West merged into US Air
and most recent NorthWest merged into Delta and Continental merged into United not to mention all the small airlines that have been merged or got into liquidation.
9/11 and the Sars virus, and most recent the Global Financal Crisis has changed the Avaition industry for ever,
So as we are into 2011 I was woundering what are your thoughts on a couple of questions I would like to ask

1. Who do u think out of the mega carriers will still be flying under their on banners in 2021?
2. Do any of you think that the USA will have just one flag carrier representing the US at overseas airports?
3. Will the smaller airlines like AS or WN get as big as the likes of Delta or American?

Sorry for the long winded question but it was something I have been thinking about.Looking forward to some of your responces.
 
brons2
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RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 9:44 am

1. UA, DL, AA, US internationally. Maybe AA and US merge, but it's not really a good fit.
2. No, there will always be at least two.
3. WN already carries the most passengers domestically. They have over 500 737s. They are a huge airline.
Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
 
Flyingsottsman
Topic Author
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 11:17 am

Quoting brons2 (Reply 1):
3. WN already carries the most passengers domestically. They have over 500 737s. They are a huge airline.

wow I didnt know they had that many ac and I must admit I didnt know they were that huge I knew they were big.
 
travelavnut
Posts: 1327
Joined: Wed May 12, 2010 1:35 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 11:57 am

United American Delta Airlines? of course with the low-cost subsidiary Virgin West Blue

[Edited 2011-02-21 03:58:09]
Live From Amsterdam!
 
NWADC9
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Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2004 12:33 am

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 12:27 pm

United, American, Delta, and Southwest will most certainly prevail amongst all of the merges.
I get paid to convert dead dino juice into noise.
 
Norlander
Posts: 138
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:39 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 1:03 pm

In light of the recent news, I must say I'll not be surprised if American doesn't survive the decade. Either that or a "Frank Lorenzo" revival.
Longtime Lurker
 
RamblinMan
Posts: 1027
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2010 3:57 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:20 pm

There will be 2: Southwest, and whatever the combined-company name is for everything else.

If nothing else, comparison shopping ought to be easy!
 
BoeingGuy
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Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:29 pm

Alaska will still be around, despite some of the naysayers. In my mind, they are the Kansas City Southern Railroad of the aviation industry - a small surivor and grower surrounded by mega-mergers.

In 1998 I was told that AS will soon be absorbed. It's closer to 2021 than it was to then.
 
na
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Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:36 pm

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Thread starter):


Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021  

If the international carriers keep ordering new planes at the pace of the last ten years - none 

I could see that Southwest aquiring an international operation of whatever kind. Or the other way around. Same with Jetblue perhaps.
 
N623JB
Posts: 77
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 3:22 am

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:51 pm

Quoting na (Reply 8):

I agree. By 2021, JetBlue will already be aquiring widebodies for sure.They should be ordering widebodies between 2011-2015. Maybe flights to Europe and other regions of the world too.
Bring JetBlue To Mexico City! (TLC and/or MEX would be great)
 
joeljack
Posts: 649
Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2005 12:38 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 5:53 pm

Look, over the years new airlines come and become big. I would venture to guess there will be a new big carrier in the us.

1) Virgin America? something like over 100 planes on order I believe
2) Frontier? Planes on order, just merged with Midwest Airlines
3) JetBlue? Planes on order and expanding at modest rate
4) Allegiant? Expanding by leaps and bounds and profitable. At at 15% growth rate, this airline will be 3 times bigger in 10 years...interesting. You still won't find me on them though! No flexibility, limited schedule, no recline and 1" of leg room!
5) Spirit...don't know much about them as I'm from the midwest.

I would bet that some of the above combine somehow and that with growth, we get a new carrier that's really large.

What if 1, 2 and 3 above all merge over the next 10 years? That would be a pretty big airline.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 6:01 pm

Quoting na (Reply 8):
I could see that Southwest aquiring an international operation of whatever kind.

They already have. FL flies internationally to the Caribbean and Mexico.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
N623JB
Posts: 77
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 3:22 am

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 6:02 pm

Quoting joeljack (Reply 10):

In terms of merging/combining forces, I think that a JetBlue/Virgin America and/or JetBlue/Frontier merger would be great.(under the jetBlue name)
If its with Frontier, then they would have most of the U.S. including cities in the Midwest, which is what jetBlue needs to add on their route map. They say they are America's favorite airline, but they dont fly to the Midwestern section of the U.S....not yet anyway. They should act like it if they claim they are.
Bring JetBlue To Mexico City! (TLC and/or MEX would be great)
 
SyrAlex
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2010 2:53 am

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 7:13 pm

Quoting Norlander (Reply 5):
In light of the recent news, I must say I'll not be surprised if American doesn't survive the decade. Either that or a "Frank Lorenzo" revival.

Yeah I have a feeling American might not survive myself.
 
swa4life
Posts: 94
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2009 11:20 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Mon Feb 21, 2011 7:50 pm

Let's analyse the possible merger of AA and US specifically..

For AA. Their operation as it stands today is NOT profitable. They operate an old fuel guzzling fleet of MD aircraft. And NOBODY wants to inherit their labor mess. For another airline to decide to get into bed with AA, you have to ask what would be in it for them. And do the possible pros of doing so outweigh the issues they would inherit?

On the other hand, you could make the case that US's labor mess is even worse so what's a little more labor strife? Perhaps even by forcing yet another Union SLI between groups, it might "hit the reset button" so to speak where by the US and HP groups might finally consolidate the two amicably and refocus the tribalism towards the AA groups  .

As was mentioned before. We're all aware that this merger does not totally make sense. But reminiscent of grade school scenarios of being forced to "pair up", all the popular kids have paired and someone has to get stuck with the kid with the gimpy leg in the corner. Consolidation is the direction the industry is headed, and the remaining "odd" airlines will simply be crushed by the new mega airlines. One way or the other AA has to make a move. They're not even successful as the airline they are today, let alone facing bigger and stiffer competition.

[Edited 2011-02-21 11:56:08]
 
Flyingsottsman
Topic Author
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Tue Feb 22, 2011 10:24 am

Quoting swa4life (Reply 14):
Let's analyse the possible merger of AA and US specifically

Thanks for the responces very interesting reading. I had no idea that AA was in a little bit of trouble.
 
delimit
Posts: 840
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:08 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Wed Feb 23, 2011 4:21 pm

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 15):
Thanks for the responces very interesting reading. I had no idea that AA was in a little bit of trouble.

AA is disadvantaged by significantly higher labor costs.

However, a lot of the coversation about AA & US seems somewhat...reactionary. It seems to go along the lines of, AA is now smaller than DL and UA so AA must become larger, while totally ignoring the fact that AA is something of a behemoth already. They don't really need a merger to upsize themselves. They could do the same through simple, organic growth.
 
flyerboy1990
Posts: 137
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:06 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:05 pm

I'm not so sure how long US will be around. IMO, they are just...there. The only good thing they will bring to the airline that will acquire them is the east coast operation. And because of trying to tie up with DL and UA before, I just don't think they will last. I think the perfect scenario would be for the assets to be broken up between the other airlines. Not sure what that would do to all of the workers...sorry.

I don't understand why B6 didn't acquire F9 before RAH. I was sure it was going to happen! They seem to be fairly similar and would give each airline the presence it needs in their opposite markets (B6 in midwest, F9 in east).

WN will be around forever!

[Edited 2011-02-23 13:07:36]
Flown in: 712, 722, 73G, 738, 752, DC10, CR2, CR9, A319, A320 Want to fly in: A330, 767, 777, MD80, E170 series
 
MadameConcorde
Posts: 9265
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 5:08 pm

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:25 pm

There will be Lufthansa, Lufthansa and Lufthansa.

Germany is buying off the New York Stock Exchange.
The US are going broke. Lufthansa will buy all the major US carriers.

     
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
robo65
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 4:53 am

RE: Which US Mega Carriers Will Be Flying In 2021

Sun Feb 27, 2011 3:41 am

That is a tough question to answer for something that is 10 years away. Awhile back a lot of people were saying 3-4 big carriers and then maybe a couple smaller ones and some people thought that was hard to believe but we are getting awful close with the DL/NW and UA/CO.

It also really depends on how the economy is the next 10 years also. If the cost of oil continues to rise you never no who will be forced to file bankruptcy or be forced to merge. Wouldn't it be nice to have a crystal ball.

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