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StrandedAtMKG
Topic Author
Posts: 304
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2015 5:51 pm

PNR/Itinerary On-Time Completion?

Fri Apr 15, 2016 4:17 am

We're always hearing about flight on-time statistics at the carrier and airport level from US DoT and other entities, but I had a question: I'm wondering if anyone's ever compiled or seen hard data on what percentage of passenger PNR's/itineraries are actually completed as scheduled? Looking at whether passengers actually completed the flights they originally booked on time would give a clearer picture of how people are being impacted by delays/cancellations/misconnects/etc.

Just curious! Please be gentle!
 
RushmoreAir
Posts: 90
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2011 4:29 am

RE: PNR/Itinerary On-Time Completion?

Fri Apr 15, 2016 4:46 pm

I doubt there's any publicly available hard data on passenger delay and if there is, I'd love to see it! However, linked below is an extensive study on trying to estimate/model actual passenger/PNR delay.

http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/89059

The data is from 2007, so it's a little dated, and flight delays have gone down since then. So their estimates are likely high, but I think still provide some interesting insight into misconnection rates. The results start on page 20 of the paper - the rest is the math behind the model specification. Here are some of the key findings:

Quote:
While average flight delay in 2007 was 15.3 mins, average pax delay was 30.2 min. Once disrupted by a cancellation or misconnect, the average affected passenger experiences 449 min (7.5 hrs) of delay.
Quote:
The ratio of average passenger delay to average flight delay is maximum for regional carriers and minimum for low-cost carriers, owing primarily to the cancellation rates and the connecting passenger percentages.
Quote:
Passengers scheduled to transfer in one of 6 airports: Newark (EWR), Chicago O’Hare (ORD), New York La Guardia (LGA), Washington Dulles (IAD), New York Kennedy (JFK) or Philadelphia (PHL), were exposed to the longest average connecting passenger delays. For each of these airports, over 10% of scheduled connecting passengers had their itineraries disrupted. These 6 airports were also among the worst airports with respect to both average delays for departing flights and departure cancellations.
Quote:
Domestic passenger connections are highly concentrated at the top three transfer airports: Atlanta (ATL), Chicago O’Hare (ORD), and Dallas / Fort Worth (DFW), representing approximately 43.2% of planned passenger connections. As such, ATL, ORD, and DFW are responsible for more than 40% of domestic missed connections, and contribute to more than 43% of all delays to connecting passengers.
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The views and opinions as expressed in this post are entirely my own and are not those of my employer, Hawaiian Airlines, Inc

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