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PacoMartin
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A320neo vs B737max

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:52 pm

I was thinking about a hypothetical startup airline that is offered an A320neo or a B737max for the exact same price and the same delivery date, with the appropriate LEAP engine. This hypothetical contract is before the MAX crashes.

In this hypothetical case, it seems to me that the A320neo would always win the contract given the huge advantage of having the engines with the much larger fan diameter. This advantage would overwhelm any other pros or cons comparing the jets.

LEAP-1A 78.0 in (198 cm) Airbus A320neo family 24,500–35,000 lbf (109–156 kN) 2 Aug 2016
LEAP-1B 69.4 in (176 cm) Boeing 737 MAX 23,000–28,000 lbf (100–120 kN) 22 May 2017

Unless someone can provide information to disabuse me of this notion, the only real reason to purchase the MAX is commonality with existing NG fleet (and possibly some price advantage).
 
MIflyer12
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:56 pm

Why do you think fan diameter is the key metric? It's understood that the Max 8, with a few more seats than a 320neo, has a lower casm.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:56 pm

How about price, how about the number of seats, the 738 is bigger than the A320. Route length, there are small differences in performance between the two, so one is better suited for a specific route than the other. Etc.

It isn't as easy as you make it seem here.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:11 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
I was thinking about a hypothetical startup airline that is offered an A320neo or a B737max for the exact same price and the same delivery date, with the appropriate LEAP engine. This hypothetical contract is before the MAX crashes.

In this hypothetical case, it seems to me that the A320neo would always win the contract given the huge advantage of having the engines with the much larger fan diameter. This advantage would overwhelm any other pros or cons comparing the jets.
.


The 737-800 has consistently had sale and lease rates that are about 5% higher than the A320. 737MAX-8 pricing also has been a little higher than A320neo pricing, but data is limited.

If the 737-8 has a higher market value than the A320neo (before the crashes) it can be implied that if it is offered at the same price as the A320neo, Airlines will favor the 737-8.

A320neo - $42 - 50M, $310-370,000
B737MAX-8 - $52.0M, $310-380,000

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422705

The scenario is flipped for A321 vs 737-900ER.
Last edited by Weatherwatcher1 on Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:13 pm

Errr.. The MAX has earlier delivery dates.
Price won't be the same. Boeing has been pushing hard to reduce costs.

There is a reason both sell.

Lightsaber
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PatrickZ80
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:16 pm

It's also not a case of "bigger is better". You just got to look what is sufficient. For example the Leap-1A for the A320 is more powerful than the Leap-1B for the 737, but if that Leap-1B is powerful enough then there is no need to go even more powerful. Look at how much power you need to do the job you had in mind for the aircraft, as long as that amount of power is met the rest doesn't matter.

On the other hand the 737MAX offers a few seats more than the A320NEO, but do you need those seats? Here as well, bigger is not always better. You estimated a certain number of needed seats, not "as much as possible". What good are more seats if those seats go empty and therefor don't make money? Then perhaps you want a few seats less.
 
Eyad89
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:27 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
I was thinking about a hypothetical startup airline that is offered an A320neo or a B737max for the exact same price and the same delivery date, with the appropriate LEAP engine. This hypothetical contract is before the MAX crashes.

In this hypothetical case, it seems to me that the A320neo would always win the contract given the huge advantage of having the engines with the much larger fan diameter. This advantage would overwhelm any other pros or cons comparing the jets.
.


The 737-800 has consistently had sale and lease rates that are about 5% higher than the A320. 737MAX-8 pricing also has been a little higher than A320neo pricing, but data is limited.

If the 737-8 has a higher market value than the A320neo (before the crashes) it can be implied that if it is offered at the same price as the A320neo, Airlines will favor the 737-8.

A320neo - $42 - 50M, $310-370,000
B737MAX-8 - $52.0M, $310-380,000

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422705

The scenario is flipped for A321 vs 737-900ER.


738 is bigger than A320, and A321 is bigger than 739. So, price is scaling with size, which isn’t surprising.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:41 pm

I asked a hypothetical question removing price and delivery dates. I was not aware that casm was considered higher on the A320neo.

Given that the advertised ranges are so similar, is there a reason why nobody has tried to institute a commercial flight over 6000km in an A320neo?
6,500 km Airbus A320neo
6,570 km Boeing 737 MAX 8

Longest Commercial routes
5,444km Airbus A320neo Brisbane- Bandar Seri Begawan Royal Brunei Airlines RB 10
6,112km Boeing 737 MAX 8 Brasília Orlando Gol Transportes Aéreos G3 7602
 
triple3driver
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:51 pm

Given the conditions listed by the OP, it would depend largely on the types of routes that the airline would want to fly, and whether they would be looking at operating just the specific variants or other members as well, all of which may or may not offset the MAX 8's CASM, maintenance, and value advantages.

If the airline wishes to operate just the specific aircraft on shorter routes, it is a sure win for the MAX due to it's fuel burn advantage on shorter routes.

If the airline plans to operate a large amount of medium haul routes the A320NEO gains an advantage, but not enough IMO. What could give the NEO the decision is if the airline decides that they want a larger plane as well i.e. 737 MAX 10/A321NEO, then that will prove a win for Airbus

That's not to say that the A321NEO is the god of all NB airplanes. It would take both factors of a large number of medium haul routes and the desire for a larger aircraft to upgauge capacity for the A320 to win the deal, but if both factors are present, then this would add orders to the NEO backlog rather than the MAX. If they want a larger aircraft but don't wish to operate as many longer routes, then the MAX 10 will do suffice.

Overall, there's plenty of reason to operate both, and while few are ballsy enough to order the MAX right now, in the future, there will be more than enough MAX orders as well as NEO orders in the future
If you can walk away from it intact, it was a good landing!
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:32 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
I asked a hypothetical question removing price and delivery dates. I was not aware that casm was considered higher on the A320neo.

Given that the advertised ranges are so similar, is there a reason why nobody has tried to institute a commercial flight over 6000km in an A320neo?
6,500 km Airbus A320neo
6,570 km Boeing 737 MAX 8

Longest Commercial routes
5,444km Airbus A320neo Brisbane- Bandar Seri Begawan Royal Brunei Airlines RB 10
6,112km Boeing 737 MAX 8 Brasília Orlando Gol Transportes Aéreos G3 7602


Probably because range is never a given, it is subject to a lot of factors. For example load factors, a fully loaded plane has less range than a less loaded plane. But also winds can influence the range. The average range might be 6000 km, but fully loaded and with headwinds this can easily be reduced to 4500 km. On the other hand, with only a light payload and tailwind the range could be up to 7500 km.

But the most important factor is that prestige is not an issue in aviation. In other words, you don't want to do something "because it's possible".

Let's say you have a route of 4000 km that needs to be served. So what if the plane can do 2000 km more, that's irrelevant. The route just isn't any longer than 4000 km. As long as the plane can do that, it's fine. Don't look at whatever it can do more as it doesn't have to do more.
 
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:14 am

Price being equal, I would order Max 8 and a combination of A321NEO and A321XLR.

The Max 8 burns about 1.4% more fuel, which is negligible in the grand scheme of things but the hige difference is revenue potential.
Due to the longer fuselage, I can fit 16F at 40" pitch and 144Y at roughly 33" pitch in the 800/Max 8. With the same seat pitch in the A320NEO, I can fit 12F 138Y. While it's only 10 seats, at a nearly 90% load factor, that's a lot of revenue that the A320NEO leaves behind every day.

The A321NEO is more fuel efficient, carries more payload, has better field performance and more revenue potential than the Max 9, but only similar revenue potential as the Max 10.
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RawSushi
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:27 am

The 737 MAX 8 weighs about the same as the A320neo but carries more passengers. That's how it remains competitive, at least for some mission profiles.
 
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:31 am

PacoMartin wrote:
I was thinking about a hypothetical startup airline that is offered an A320neo or a B737max for the exact same price and the same delivery date, with the appropriate LEAP engine. This hypothetical contract is before the MAX crashes.

In this hypothetical case, it seems to me that the A320neo would always win the contract given the huge advantage of having the engines with the much larger fan diameter. This advantage would overwhelm any other pros or cons comparing the jets.

LEAP-1A 78.0 in (198 cm) Airbus A320neo family 24,500–35,000 lbf (109–156 kN) 2 Aug 2016
LEAP-1B 69.4 in (176 cm) Boeing 737 MAX 23,000–28,000 lbf (100–120 kN) 22 May 2017

Unless someone can provide information to disabuse me of this notion, the only real reason to purchase the MAX is commonality with existing NG fleet (and possibly some price advantage).


Simply put, your premise is inaccurate and isn’t true.
Whatever
 
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:43 am

The 737-8 burns less fuel per passenger than the A320NEO.

It burns roughly 2% more fuel but carries 5-7% more passengers when using the same seat area on both aircraft. That is a huge advantage to the 737-8.

The 737-8 can also fly further than the than the A320NEO. Between 5-10% further depending on who you ask.

I would definitely pick the 737-8 if they were the same price.

However if I had to pick one narrowbody model for a hypothetical airline it would be the A321XLR. I would have two cabin layouts for both short and long haul. A higher density cabin for short haul with say 210 seats with basic recliner seat business class. A low density cabin with say 120 seats with lie flat beds for long haul allowing range to near 5000nm.
 
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:47 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The 737-8 can also fly further than the than the A320NEO. Between 5-10% further depending on who you ask.
.

can you provide any reliable data?
 
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:08 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The 737-8 can also fly further than the than the A320NEO. Between 5-10% further depending on who you ask.
.

can you provide any reliable data?

The Boeing ACAP lists 3480nm range with 37,000lb of payload. That is 168 passenger.

The Airbus ACAP lists 3450nm with 34,000lb of payload. Add the same 37,000lb of payload and it flies 300nm less than the 737-8.

Fit a single ACT to the A320NEO and it gets worse as you are adding extra empty weight and unless you are flying over 3500nm you cant fill the tank up. It can carry only 33,000lb of payload the same distance as the 737 can carry 37,000lb. Add 37,000lb of payload to the A320NEO and it can fly 450nm less than the 737-8.

This is shown in real life service as the 737-8 has flown a dozen routes that are longer than the longest A320NEO flight.
 
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:14 am

RJMAZ wrote:
However if I had to pick one narrowbody model for a hypothetical airline it would be the A321XLR. I would have two cabin layouts for both short and long haul. A higher density cabin for short haul with say 210 seats with basic recliner seat business class. A low density cabin with say 120 seats with lie flat beds for long haul allowing range to near 5000nm.


That could be a wrong choice given that on short routes the A321XLR burns more fuel than the regular A321NEO. It's also more expensive to purchase, but doesn't give you any additional value. After all, you don't use the extra range it has.

You don't want to maximize things out, you want to tailor them to the purpose you have for them. If you fly short routes, you want a plane that is optimized for short routes. That isn't the A321XLR. It could be the A321NEO if that's the right size of aircraft for the route.

RJMAZ wrote:
The 737-8 can also fly further than the than the A320NEO. Between 5-10% further depending on who you ask.


Again, this is irrelevant if you don't fly routes of that distance which is mostly the case. Range is rarely maxed out. You just want an aircraft that can serve a certain route the most economical, and mostly that route is quite a bit shorter than the aircraft range. Therefor, any range further than the given route is irrelevant and might even turn out negative (higher fuel burn on shorter routes).
 
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:18 am

PacoMartin wrote:
I was thinking about a hypothetical startup airline that is offered an A320neo or a B737max for the exact same price and the same delivery date, with the appropriate LEAP engine. This hypothetical contract is before the MAX crashes.

In this hypothetical case, it seems to me that the A320neo would always win the contract given the huge advantage of having the engines with the much larger fan diameter. This advantage would overwhelm any other pros or cons comparing the jets.

LEAP-1A 78.0 in (198 cm) Airbus A320neo family 24,500–35,000 lbf (109–156 kN) 2 Aug 2016
LEAP-1B 69.4 in (176 cm) Boeing 737 MAX 23,000–28,000 lbf (100–120 kN) 22 May 2017

Unless someone can provide information to disabuse me of this notion, the only real reason to purchase the MAX is commonality with existing NG fleet (and possibly some price advantage).


Hei PacoMartin,

I see your point of view and question logic.
From the replies it seems more information are needed to better asses the question. Main one is: what is the mission like?

If the typical flying mission is withing 1.5-2.000nm range (average intra-European flight), the needs are different than if the typical flying mission is +2.000nm (average transcon in the USA).
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:53 am

triple3driver wrote:
Given the conditions listed by the OP, it would depend largely on the types of routes that the airline would want to fly, and whether they would be looking at operating just the specific variants or other members as well, all of which may or may not offset the MAX 8's CASM, maintenance, and value advantages.

If the airline wishes to operate just the specific aircraft on shorter routes, it is a sure win for the MAX due to it's fuel burn advantage on shorter routes.


You would think that Allegiant, acnd Spirit would have certainly chosen the MAX

Average Domestic stage length
WN 808 Southwest
G4 897 Allegiant
DL 962 Delta
NK 1,034 Spirit
AA 1,075 American
HA 1,094 Hawaiian
F9 1,108 Frontier
B6 1,155 JetBlue
UA 1,262 United
AS 1,355 Alaska Air
SY 1,423 Sun Country
 
Armadillo1
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:46 am

please tell me about "max advantage on shorter routes"
 
astuteman
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:48 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
The 737-8 can also fly further than the than the A320NEO. Between 5-10% further depending on who you ask.
.

can you provide any reliable data?



If you look at both OEM's ACAP documents (Airbus A320NEO ACAP Feb 19 and Boeing 737MAX ACAP June 2019), they show that the inflection point on the range/payload chart at MTOW and max fuel for both is just over 3 400Nm - i.e. the same.
To get there,
the A320NEO tanks 23 850 litres
the MAX8 tanks 25 817 litres
i.e. the 737-8 takes 8.2% more fuel to make the same distance.

Edit - don't fixate on that number too much - in the post below I explain why it is probably the worst case point for the MAX, being a very long range example

The A320NEO took off at 79t MTOW
The 737-8 took off at 82.2t MTOW

Assuming a fuel density of 0.8kg/l
The A320NEO will have a ZFW of 60t
The 737-8 will have a Zero Fuel Weight of 61.5t

Wiki lists the OEW of the 737 MAX8 as 45.07 tonnes
It lists the OEW of the A320NEO as 44.3 tonnes

The OEM's don't list the OEW figures
If we stick with the Wiki OEW numbers (for no other reason than they are numbers, not lines on a graph),
By calculation

The A320NEO carries 15.6t payload plus DOW "add-ons" (e.g. catering, crew) at that 3 400Nm range
The 737 MAX8 carries 16.4t payload plus DOW "add-ons" (e.g. catering, crew) at that 3 400Nm range

To make up the difference in payload, the A320NEO would have to reduce range by about 200nm.

The reality is that most of these aircraft today fly in much denser configurations.

The relative advantages that the 737-8 has are
*its slightly higher capacity (2 seat rows),
*its higher MTOW (82.2t vs 79t)
*its higher fuel capacity (25 817 litres vs 23 850 litres, or 8.2%

So the trade off being made here is heavier MTOW and higher fuel burn of the 737-8 vs its higher payload/range capability.

The reality in the marketplace is that these trade-off are so close that other factors like
*price
*availability
*commonality with existing fleet

outweigh the performance trade-off.

The higher MTOW and higher fuel capacity of the MAX8 do explain why it sees the longer sectors at the extreme.

Hope this helps
Last edited by astuteman on Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:17 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
astuteman
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:06 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
please tell me about "max advantage on shorter routes"


A poster called Mandala499 very kindly posted images of FCOM's for 737-800 (with winglets) and A320CEO (without sharklets) on here a long time ago.
They showed that the 737-800 had a slight fuel burn advantage (c.4%) at very short ranges, which balanced out to 0 at c. 800nm and became a 5% disadvantage at 2 500Nm
Without an FCOM we can only guess what adding sharklets to the A320CEO would have done, but on the basis that it improved fuel burn on the A320 by 4% at long range, we can surmise that the short range advantage of the 737-800 would not change much, but the long range delta would increase from a c. 5% disadvantage to the 737-800 to a c. 9% disadvantage (the R/P charts in the ACAP's seem to be close to this)

I've never seen FCOMs for a NEO or a MAX, but see no reason to believe that the pattern will be much different to the CEO vs 737-800

It would seem that the lower weight of the shorter gear and smaller engine of the 737 confer an advantage at short range, but turn into a disadvantage at long range (presumably due to SFC primarily)

Rgds
 
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:29 am

astuteman wrote:
It would seem that the lower weight of the shorter gear and smaller engine of the 737 confer an advantage at short range, but turn into a disadvantage at long range (presumably due to SFC primarily)


Isn't the higher installed thrust on A320 mostly due the changed certification environment
( increased obstacle clearance and initial climb rate, one engine out )?

From the "Mandala Papers" I took away that the A320 ( CEO, old cabin setup ) uses 10% less block fuel
for similar OEW while providing 10% less capacity.
i.e. on first blush a per seat match that shew imbalance ( advantage A320 ) over longer ranges.
( unsurprising: more area/surface but still better aero and engine specs )
Murphy is an optimist
 
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SQ22
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:21 am

I have moved this interesting discussion into Technical/Operations Forum hoping some experts will join the discussion.
 
Armadillo1
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:26 am

WIederling wrote:
while providing 10% less capacity.

i thought capacity can be compared as 180 - to - 189 - about 5%, not 10.
 
WIederling
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:51 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
while providing 10% less capacity.

i thought capacity can be compared as 180 - to - 189 - about 5%, not 10.

yup. my error.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:26 am

If the startup airlines operates from terminal 5 at Heathrow then it has to choose A320neo because 737 cannot take containerized baggage.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:29 pm

Delta ordered 100 A321neo aircraft to replace its aging 757s and MD-90s. These new A321neo aircraft are expected to be delivered starting in 2020, and will continue deliveries through 2023.

astuteman wrote:
The reality in the marketplace is that these trade-off are so close that other factors like
*price
*availability
*commonality with existing fleet
outweigh the performance trade-off.


But Delta will also have to retire it's 62 A320s starting in two years. What would you expect them to purchase (assuming the MAX-8 is back on the market)?


Avg. Age Number Delta Single-Aisle Fleet
28.7 70 McDonnell Douglas MD-80
24.0 62 Airbus A320
22.3 33 McDonnell Douglas MD-90
22.0 127 Boeing 757
18.0 77 Boeing 737-800
17.9 91 Boeing 717
17.5 57 Airbus A319
10.6 10 Boeing 737-700
3.0 130 Boeing 737-900
1.5 88 Airbus A321
0.4 21 Airbus A220
15.2 766 Total
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:02 pm

FriscoHeavy wrote:
Simply put, your premise is inaccurate and isn’t true.


That may well be, which is why I was asking the question.

From simple observation the four USA customers of the MAX (Southwest, American, United and Alaska Air) are all legacy users of the Next Generation. Jetblue, Spirit , Frontier, and Allegiant do not currently fly Boeing jets and did not place MAX orders. Hawaiian has all A321neos, Delta has no Boeing jets on order, and Sun Country has not made any upgrade decisions.

Of the four airlines in Mexico only AeroMexico (a diehard Boeing customer) has ordered the MAX. The three airlines that are less than 15 years old are building their fleets on Airbus.

Lion Air has only flown B737 NG. Westjet in Canada has always flown the B737.

Air Canada is an exception. They did not fly the B737 classic or the next generation, and had an all Airbus single aisle fleet. But they purchased the MAX.

I haven't looked at all the worldwide customers, but it seems as if most MAX customers are legacy Boeing users.
 
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keesje
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:11 pm

Air Canada has low profile (no announcements) been adding A321s from AF, recently from WoW, maybe Air Transat later. AC uses AKH container infrastructure for A320s, A321s.

The LEAP-A has probably ~4% better tsfc over the -B. Mostly because of it's higher BPR. But other factors play a role in aircraft fuel efficiency. It is why Airbus didn't put a lighter 69 inch LEAP on the NEO and Boeing went to extremes to get every (im)possible inch of fan on the MAX. Leading to the MAX stability issues later on.

Coming back to the OP, advantages of the A320 have traditionally been
- engine choice
- final assembly on 3 continents
- cargo pallet/ container option
- full commonality with, conversion options to A321
- A330/340 cockpit commonality
- wider seats for longer flights
- spacier, quieter cabin/ cockpit
- part of a family with longer term development potential

I seems the industry (airlines, suppliers, MRO's) hate the reality of one NB OEM being so much on top at this stage. It's considered bad for healthy competition. A justified concern IMO.

It is sinking in slowly this is more than a software fix already worked on, everybody forgets & business as usual in 4-6 weeks.

Denial / living in the past won't help Boeing, I hope for some NB innovation soon, overdue.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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reidar76
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:01 pm

British Airways and Lufthansa have 180 seats in their A320neo aircraft. Low cost carriers have 189 seats in their 737-8 MAX, that's 5 % more seats.

A320neo low cost carriers have between 186 seats (most) and 194 seats (Cebu Pacific). In some configurations the A320neo would actually have more seats than the 737-8 MAX.

When the A320neo family is beeing compared to the 737 MAX, I think it is correct to allow the wider seats to compensate for reduced seat pitch. In other words, the same space for each passenger.

The 737-200 MAX can have 198 seats. The difference to 194 seats on the A320neo is only 2 %.

Conclusion: The difference in number of seats on the 737-8 MAX and A320neo is not huge. It depends on preference of individual airlines.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:14 pm

keesje wrote:
Denial / living in the past won't help Boeing, I hope for some NB innovation soon, overdue.


It would be interesting to go through this MAX customer list, and see which airlines were not Next Generation owners.

Air Canada 61 North America
Southwest Airlines 280
United Airlines 137
WestJet Airlines 55
Alaska Airlines 32
American Airlines 100
Air Lease Corporation 168
Aviation Capital Group 103
Boeing Capital Corporation 75
Business Jet / VIP Customer(s) 22
CIT Aerospace LLC 37
GECAS 176
Jackson Square Aviation 30
Jetlines 5
Avolon Aerospace Leasing Limit 75 Caribbean
Goshawk Aviation Limited 20
Aeromexico 60 Central America and Mexico
Copa Airlines 61
Aerolineas Argentinas 11 South America
GOL Linhas Aereas 135

AerCap 100 Europe
Air Europa 20
Avolon - Ireland 20
Blue Air 6
CDB Financial Leasing 1
Enter Air Sp. z o.o. 6
Icelandair 5
Norwegian Air Shuttle 110
Ryanair 135
SkyUp Airlines 7
Smartwings, a.s. 8
SMBC Aviation Capital 91
SunExpress Airlines 32
TAROM Romanian Air Transport 5
Timaero Ireland Limited 22
TUI Travel PLC 72
Turkish Airlines 75
UTair Aviation 28

ALAFCO 40 Middle East
flydubai 251
Oman Air (SAOC) 20
Qatar Airways 5

Air Niugini 4 Oceania
Fiji Airways 5
Virgin Australia Airlines 40

Jet Airways 125 South Asia
SpiceJet 136
SCAT Airlines 1 Central Asia
Turkmenistan Airlines 3
9 Air 1 East Asia
Air China 15
CALC 50
China Development Bank Fin. 78
China Eastern Airlines 14
China Southern Airlines 50
Donghai Airlines 25
Hainan Airlines Holding 7
ICBC Leasing 5
Jeju Air 40
JIA 10
Korean Air 30
Okay Airways Company Limited 9
Ruili Airlines 36
Shandong Airlines 6
Shenzhen Airlines 5
Xiamen Airlines 9
BOC Aviation Limited 87 Southeast Asia
Garuda Indonesia 50
Lion Air 201
Malaysia Airlines 25
Nok Air 6
SilkAir 37
VietJet Air 200

Air Peace 10 Africa
Arik Air 8
Comair Limited 8
Ethiopian Airlines Group 30
Mauritania Airlines 1
Royal Air Maroc 1

Unidentified Customer(s) 942 Unidentified
 
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PacoMartin
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Posts: 370
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:14 pm

Partial check of data shows that every airline in Americas and Europe who ordered a MAX operated a sizeable number of B737s in the past. The number in parenthesis represents current + historic jets in the fleet. Only Air Canada operated just 44 "original" B737s, skipping the classic and next generation models.

It's difficult to draw iron-tight conclusion since there are so many older B737s, and many of these airlines also operated A320ceo family jets, but it looks like if you have a clean-sheet an airline tends to go with Airbus jets instead of Boeing MAX.

North America
Air Canada 61 (44 Boeing 737-200)
WestJet Airlines 55 (157)
Southwest Airlines 280 (1003)
United Airlines 137 (624)
American Airlines 100 (350)
Alaska Airlines 32 (223)

Central America and Mexico
Copa Airlines 61 (113)
Aeromexico 60 (79)

South America
GOL Linhas Aereas 135 (196)
Aerolineas Argentinas 11 (123)

Europe
Ryanair 135 (437)
TUI Travel PLC 72 (180)
Turkish Airlines 75 (143)
Norwegian Air Shuttle 110 (123)
Smartwings, a.s. 8 (97)
SunExpress Airlines 32 (97)
Air Europa 20 (96)
UTair Aviation 28 (57)
Blue Air 6 (49)
TAROM Romanian Air Transport 5 (21)
SkyUp Airlines 7 (12)
Icelandair 5 (8)

MIflyer12 wrote:
Why do you think fan diameter is the key metric? It's understood that the Max 8, with a few more seats than a 320neo, has a lower casm.

I was thinking that the larger your fan is, the more efficient your engine. I still am having trouble finding a reference that compares casm.
 
Flow2706
Posts: 193
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:20 pm

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:53 pm

I don't have any experience on the NEO, but from my experience the A320CEO does seem to be more limited than the NG on very long flights. On a 2200nm flight with full passenger loads we were really maxed out with an A320CEO (without sharklets). Fuel tanks were filled to capacity (this specific aircraft was not equipped with ACTs), Takeoff Weight was MTOW and even at Cost Index 0 we didn't really have much extra fuel. An other airline operating the same route with 737NG does not seem to have issues with that flight. This is just my subjective experience on a specific route, but I guess it would be similar for most very long routes.
 
FlyHappy
Posts: 1044
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:35 am

PacoMartin wrote:
I was thinking that the larger your fan is, the more efficient your engine. I still am having trouble finding a reference that compares casm.


And increases frontal drag.
And increases engine weight.

CASM isn't that meaningful, RASM so much more so.
In other words, the two airframes (now and in the past) have been so directly cost competitive that the technical handwringing we engage in is of little importance to most airlines; they are more adaptable then we are. They will retrain pilots and mechanics; they will bulk or container load; they care not a whit about 5" of cabin width difference, or length of landing gear/size of fan - they will buy from either based on a holistic evaluation which is different for every airline.
Both aircraft serve up a good platform for which to sell tickets, fly routes, and make money. All of which is dependant on the still unchanging fact that paying customers don't know and don't care about the aircraft.

[all of this of course ignores the massive and deadly snafu astoundingly perpetrated by Boeing]
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3005
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:22 am

FlyHappy wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
I was thinking that the larger your fan is, the more efficient your engine. I still am having trouble finding a reference that compares casm.


And increases frontal drag.
And increases engine weight.


Every single manufacturer is putting bigger fans on their aircraft. Even the Embraer E2 has bigger fans than the 737MAX. If the myth that smaller fans somehow gave the 737MAX an advantage on shorter flights, why do true shorthaulers like the E190/195E2 and A220 feature even bigger fans than the 737MAX?

It is clear that the 737MAX has suboptimal engines. It was a compromise from day 1.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8888
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:02 am

VSMUT wrote:
It is clear that the 737MAX has suboptimal engines. It was a compromise from day 1.


That started with the NG already. Only not as pronounced as with the MAX.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Zeke2517
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 4:29 pm

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:44 am

What if I was LeBron James?
 
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keesje
Posts: 13173
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:29 am

Flow2706 wrote:
I don't have any experience on the NEO, but from my experience the A320CEO does seem to be more limited than the NG on very long flights. On a 2200nm flight with full passenger loads we were really maxed out with an A320CEO (without sharklets). Fuel tanks were filled to capacity (this specific aircraft was not equipped with ACTs), Takeoff Weight was MTOW and even at Cost Index 0 we didn't really have much extra fuel. An other airline operating the same route with 737NG does not seem to have issues with that flight. This is just my subjective experience on a specific route, but I guess it would be similar for most very long routes.


The 737 NG/MAX has bigger wings/fuel tanks than A320, compensating it burns more.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 370
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:04 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
In other words, the two airframes (now and in the past) have been so directly cost competitive that the technical handwringing we engage in is of little importance to most airlines; they are more adaptable then we are. They will retrain pilots and mechanics; they will bulk or container load; they care not a whit about 5" of cabin width difference, or length of landing gear/size of fan - they will buy from either based on a holistic evaluation which is different for every airline.
Both aircraft serve up a good platform for which to sell tickets, fly routes, and make money. All of which is dependant on the still unchanging fact that paying customers don't know and don't care about the aircraft.


However, the A321 consistently outsold the B737-900/900ER. It seems like if you are one of the three new airlines in Mexico you want the A321 for the capacity and the range, so you might as well stick with the A320 for compatibility.

Most airlines seem to buy the MAX if they already have a fleet of Next-Generation B737s and they want compatibility with the existing fleet. So Airbus seems to be able to convert some single-aisle Boeing customers (like Delta), but Boeing is not converting any Airbus customers. There may be some exceptions to the trend. I mentioned Air Canada which only had a small fleet of B737-200s, but purchased the MAX.

B739 --- A321ceo (deliveries)
21 2001 49
08 2002 35
11 2003 33
06 2004 35
06 2005 17
ER 2006 30
09 2007 51
30 2008 66
28 2009 87
15 2010 51
24 2011 66
44 2012 83
67 2013 102
70 2014 150
73 2015 184
52 2016 222
37 2017 183 <-> the A321neo began delivering
34 2018 99
17 2019 16
 
triple3driver
Posts: 130
Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:24 pm

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:36 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
triple3driver wrote:
Given the conditions listed by the OP, it would depend largely on the types of routes that the airline would want to fly, and whether they would be looking at operating just the specific variants or other members as well, all of which may or may not offset the MAX 8's CASM, maintenance, and value advantages.

If the airline wishes to operate just the specific aircraft on shorter routes, it is a sure win for the MAX due to it's fuel burn advantage on shorter routes.


You would think that Allegiant, acnd Spirit would have certainly chosen the MAX

Average Domestic stage length
WN 808 Southwest
G4 897 Allegiant
DL 962 Delta
NK 1,034 Spirit
AA 1,075 American
HA 1,094 Hawaiian
F9 1,108 Frontier
B6 1,155 JetBlue
UA 1,262 United
AS 1,355 Alaska Air
SY 1,423 Sun Country

That doesn't account for the fact that Airbus likely offered a better price or better delivery times which is likely a far larger factor then the MAX's fuel burn advantage on such routes. Also, Allegiant and Spirit already operate A320CEOs, so Boeing would have to offer an insane price to offset the cost savings.
If you can walk away from it intact, it was a good landing!
 
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keesje
Posts: 13173
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:11 pm

It could be the A320NEO has a bigger backlog than the 737-8. Butt we don't know because Boeing only communicates MAX orders. And how solid they are is also not entirely clear anymore. Contracts with liberal bail out & conversion conditions often qualify more as commitments or options. It's a grey area.

Price is determined mostly by slot availability, demand and competition. Let's not forget the A220 washed away the A319 and 737-7 replacement markets after A took over from BBD. Both seem dead programs.

Airlines suffer from the current situation. Growth is tempeted, MRO costs go up, Airbus is sitting pretty, Trump is irritating Xi on a daily basis and investing in 737MAX fleets for the next 25 years increasingly looks like a weak business case for any operator.


Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
I was thinking about a hypothetical startup airline that is offered an A320neo or a B737max for the exact same price and the same delivery date, with the appropriate LEAP engine. This hypothetical contract is before the MAX crashes.

In this hypothetical case, it seems to me that the A320neo would always win the contract given the huge advantage of having the engines with the much larger fan diameter. This advantage would overwhelm any other pros or cons comparing the jets.
.


The 737-800 has consistently had sale and lease rates that are about 5% higher than the A320. 737MAX-8 pricing also has been a little higher than A320neo pricing, but data is limited.

If the 737-8 has a higher market value than the A320neo (before the crashes) it can be implied that if it is offered at the same price as the A320neo, Airlines will favor the 737-8.

A320neo - $42 - 50M, $310-370,000
B737MAX-8 - $52.0M, $310-380,000

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422705

The scenario is flipped for A321 vs 737-900ER.



Higher lease rates can indicate the lessors expect a quicker economical write-off and or a lower rest value. They have to secure ROI quicker. Availability plays a role too.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3005
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:03 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Most airlines seem to buy the MAX if they already have a fleet of Next-Generation B737s and they want compatibility with the existing fleet. So Airbus seems to be able to convert some single-aisle Boeing customers (like Delta), but Boeing is not converting any Airbus customers. There may be some exceptions to the trend. I mentioned Air Canada which only had a small fleet of B737-200s, but purchased the MAX.


:checkmark:

Airbus has converted more 737NG customers to the A320NEO than Boeing has converted A320CEO customers to the 737MAX. Not only that, but it has often been revealed that Boeing often has to go pretty far in order to convince airlines.

Boeing won Monarch, Silk Air and Air Canada, and got a foot in the door at VietJet.

With Monarch it was very obviously a lifeline in the form of a loan that kept Monarch running for another year or so that made the decision. The aircraft had very little to do with it. It has been widely reported that Air Canada received a massive discount on the 737MAX and its engines as a result of some outstanding compensations from Boeing and GE.


Airbus on the other hand has won following 737NG operators:
China Airlines
Qantas
Pegasus

Has won following airlines that operated mixed A320CEO and 737NG fleets:
SAS
Aeroflot

Gained a foothold at following previous all-737NG/non-A320 operators:
American Airlines
Korean Airlines
Norwegian (remains to be seen if it will happen)
Lion Air group

So the tally is something like 660 Airbus to 300 Boeing orders across the line, with 1 737MAX customer constituting 2 thirds of Boeings tally.
 
Vladex
Posts: 360
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:07 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
I asked a hypothetical question removing price and delivery dates. I was not aware that casm was considered higher on the A320neo.

Given that the advertised ranges are so similar, is there a reason why nobody has tried to institute a commercial flight over 6000km in an A320neo?
6,500 km Airbus A320neo
6,570 km Boeing 737 MAX 8

Longest Commercial routes
5,444km Airbus A320neo Brisbane- Bandar Seri Begawan Royal Brunei Airlines RB 10
6,112km Boeing 737 MAX 8 Brasília Orlando Gol Transportes Aéreos G3 7602


Anyone that wants to do long haul is taking A321 NEO because it is much more efficient than A320 NEO and Airbus is only developing A321 NEO anyway. A320 is just a legacy airplane at this point and something for smaller airlines.
 
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keesje
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:30 pm

SQ22 wrote:
I have moved this interesting discussion into Technical/Operations Forum hoping some experts will join the discussion.


Thanks, it also decimates views & reponses as you know. But maybe lots of experts that don't visit Civil now will tune into this.

Thanks Paco for the factual statistics.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Weatherwatcher1
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:14 pm

Re: A320neo vs B737max

Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:00 pm

keesje wrote:

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
I was thinking about a hypothetical startup airline that is offered an A320neo or a B737max for the exact same price and the same delivery date, with the appropriate LEAP engine. This hypothetical contract is before the MAX crashes.

In this hypothetical case, it seems to me that the A320neo would always win the contract given the huge advantage of having the engines with the much larger fan diameter. This advantage would overwhelm any other pros or cons comparing the jets.
.


The 737-800 has consistently had sale and lease rates that are about 5% higher than the A320. 737MAX-8 pricing also has been a little higher than A320neo pricing, but data is limited.

If the 737-8 has a higher market value than the A320neo (before the crashes) it can be implied that if it is offered at the same price as the A320neo, Airlines will favor the 737-8.

A320neo - $42 - 50M, $310-370,000
B737MAX-8 - $52.0M, $310-380,000

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422705

The scenario is flipped for A321 vs 737-900ER.



Higher lease rates can indicate the lessors expect a quicker economical write-off and or a lower rest value. They have to secure ROI quicker. Availability plays a role too.


Nice try, but resale prices reflect the same trend as lease rates where 737-800 and 737-8 values have exceeded the A320 and A320neo rates by a few percent
 
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PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 370
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:24 am

keesje wrote:
Thanks Paco for the factual statistics.


Appreciate that.

I did find another exception besides Air Canada.

Qatar Airways has 40 current jets from the A320 family and 20 historical ones, and only a single B737-200 from a long time ago. But they put an order in for 5 MAXes.

I don't know if that is a technical decision or a political one. Qatar Airways has an office in Trump's building in NYC and the order was placed only 7 weeks after Trump was elected POTUS.

There are anecdotal stories that champagne was flowing in the Airbus executive offices in summer 2011 when Boeing abandoned the NSA program and announced the MAX program. Even without the MAX crashes it looks like Airbus is destined to be the market leader in single-aisle jets. If Boeing is mostly selling the smaller jet (MAX-8) to existing customers, and Airbus is developing a commanding lead in the longer length and longer range variants, by the year 2030 they should have the lion's share of the market.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 10865
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:39 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Nice try, but resale prices reflect the same trend as lease rates where 737-800 and 737-8 values have exceeded the A320 and A320neo rates by a few percent


given the number Airbus customers pay more per seat though....... 50 Million / 180 ~278k USD, 52 Million/189 ~275k USD.

It would appear they are really close in the customers view ...

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:31 am

The first A320 was delivered to Air France in March 1988. The first delivery to a USA airline was a lease four years later on 2 Apr 1992 to America West. USA airlines have since ordered over 2000 narrow-body jets from Airbus (according to their database).


Narrow Body @ June 2019
477 DELTA AIR LINES + NORTHWEST AIRLINES
471 AMERICAN AIRLINES+ US AIRWAYS+ AMERICA WEST AIRLINES
348 JETBLUE AIRWAYS
265 FRONTIER AIRLINES
153 UNITED AIRLINES
135 SPIRIT AIRLINES
60 MOXY
57 VIRGIN AMERICA (not clear what Alaska Air will do with this order)
40 REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS
16 HAWAIIAN AIRLINES
13 ALLEGIANT AIR
2,035 all

By ceo/neo/A220
1,162 ceo
608 neo
265 A220

By length
784 A321
703 A320
283 A319
265 A220
 
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PacoMartin
Topic Author
Posts: 370
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Re: A320neo vs B737max

Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:34 pm

In comparison to the single-aisle Airbus orders listed in the previous post, the B737 orders:

B737 orders from USA airlines
1068 Southwest Airlines
759 UNITED AIRLINES
541 AMERICAN AIRLINES+ US AIRWAYS+ AMERICA WEST AIRLINES
316 DELTA AIR LINES + NORTHWEST AIRLINES
217 Alaska Airlines
35 Frontier Airlines
15 Aloha Airlines

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