patrickjp93
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:49 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
given those regions are expanding passenger loads on long haul far faster than Singapore or the Middle East 3, there is a trend toward larger jets than the A321XLR and B787 being needed. .


Again you need the barest amount of quantitative analysis. Take PVG: Per wikipedia, ~146 pax/movement. So the average aircraft at PVG is 737-800 or A320-sized. Traffic needs to roughly triple - absent any airfield improvement - until the average aircraft needs to be 777-9 sized.

Incorrect. You need both mean and median to do a worthwhile analysis on that. Plenty of wide bodies land there daily from overseas for business travel, and that WILL continue to increase. So regional traffic aside, given trunk routes are also growing constrained, what do we see in this affecting the VLA market future?
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:57 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
given those regions are expanding passenger loads on long haul far faster than Singapore or the Middle East 3, there is a trend toward larger jets than the A321XLR and B787 being needed. .


Again you need the barest amount of quantitative analysis. Take PVG: Per wikipedia, ~146 pax/movement. So the average aircraft at PVG is 737-800 or A320-sized. Traffic needs to roughly triple - absent any airfield improvement - until the average aircraft needs to be 777-9 sized.

Incorrect. You need both mean and median to do a worthwhile analysis on that. Plenty of wide bodies land there daily from overseas for business travel, and that WILL continue to increase. So regional traffic aside, given trunk routes are also growing constrained,


Explain why the median tells us something dramatically more important than the mean.
Re overseas widebodies - what percentage of PVG's movements are they?

patrickjp93 wrote:
what do we see in this affecting the VLA market future?


What do YOU see? Please make an argument. So far you're just stating the obvious fact that traffic is increasing without making a direct logical connection between increasing traffic and a compelling need for 500pax/movement. Lots of smart people have tried this argument in the past (see Airbus 1990-2018); it didn't go well for them.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:02 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:

Again you need the barest amount of quantitative analysis. Take PVG: Per wikipedia, ~146 pax/movement. So the average aircraft at PVG is 737-800 or A320-sized. Traffic needs to roughly triple - absent any airfield improvement - until the average aircraft needs to be 777-9 sized.

Incorrect. You need both mean and median to do a worthwhile analysis on that. Plenty of wide bodies land there daily from overseas for business travel, and that WILL continue to increase. So regional traffic aside, given trunk routes are also growing constrained,


Explain why the median tells us something dramatically more important than the mean.
Re overseas widebodies - what percentage of PVG's movements are they?

patrickjp93 wrote:
what do we see in this affecting the VLA market future?


What do YOU see? Please make an argument. So far you're just stating the obvious fact that traffic is increasing without making a direct logical connection between increasing traffic and a compelling need for 500pax/movement.

I see someone either never took or barely scraped by in Statistics 101. Let's take a nice round number of 101 movements total, ordered from smallest to largest. The 51st is the median movement and its associated size. The sum of all seats in all the movements divided by the number of movements is the mean.

So you can have 50 50-seater jets, 1 100-seater jet, and another 50 350-seater jets. The median is 100. The mean is (2500+100+17500)/101 = 199.009...

Being told "the average" is one of the oldest tricks in the book of "lies, damn lies, and statistics."

As China and India develop and business travel overseas increases dramatically with their rising economies, the already-packed A350s flying for the big 3-4 government-owned airlines will no longer be enough as Hong Kong and PVG in particular run out of slots. HKG is at much lower risk of this as Hong Kong Airlines is likely to dissolve at this point, but PVG is getting fairly well constrained now.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:06 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
Statistics 101


Yeah thanks for telling me the difference between median and mean.

I asked for an argument. You still have not made one. You're citing a "lies, damn lies" in the manner of a person who has seen one Youtube video.

Nor have you responded to the other poster who has told you how mistaken you are about aerodynamics.

You're digging in on ignorance, as I expected (though I had held out hope).

You have no logically-driven case for why the world needs a 500-seater, just open-ended statements about traffic increases and requests that other people do your thinking for you.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:08 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
Statistics 101


Yeah thanks for telling me the difference between median and mean.

I asked for an argument. You still have not made one.

Nor have you responded to the other poster who has told you how mistaken you are about aerodynamics.

You're digging in, as I expected (though I had held out hope).

You have no logically-driven case for why the world needs a 500-seater, just open-ended statements about traffic increases and requests that other people do your thinking for you.

I see you didn't remotely read my post. Try again. I made an argument specific to the Indian and Chinese markets on expanding business travel when the A350s for China and 787s for India are already packed to the damn gills. It's not like there are lots of slots available at LAX, SFO, ORD, IAH, DFW, JFK, EWR, and ATL, not to mention HKG and PVG, though HKG might be getting some with HKA looking ready to implode.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:17 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
A350s for China and 787s for India are already packed to the damn gills


I stand corrected. You haven't made zero arguments; you've partially made at least one transparently stupid argument.
To complete this bad argument, your next step would be, "given that these [fish, apparently] have no gill-space remaining, China and India must buy larger planes and have no room simply to add more longhaul 787/A350 flights."

You see the problem with your argument, right?
Let me help you out: How many 777-9's do China and India expect to receive over the next five or so years of growth?
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:23 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
A350s for China and 787s for India are already packed to the damn gills


I stand corrected. You haven't made zero arguments; you've partially made at least one transparently stupid argument.
To complete this bad argument, your next step would be, "given that these [fish, apparently] have no gill-space remaining, China and India must buy larger planes and have no room simply to add more longhaul 787/A350 flights."

You see the problem with your argument, right?
Let me help you out: How many 777-9's do China and India expect to receive over the next five or so years of growth?

Cathay Pacific will have 21 in all by 2024. The government-controlled airlines probably will avoid buying another american plane as long as they can after the MAX fiasco, and most of the world is waiting on EASA's word on the 777X since it's insisting on a joint certification this time. And the VLA market future, as I assume we'd all think, is most certainly a prospect long beyond 2025.

Also, did I not just say there is a shortage or outright lack of available slots at a lot of big hubs India and China would be flying to? LHR and AMS are full, CDG is almost full, and FRA is almost full too, to be inclusive of our European friends.

If I'm transparently stupid you really could use a mirror. And in accordance with the forum rules, you might want to cool your jets mon frere.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:33 pm

patrickjp93 wrote:
If I'm transparently stupid you really could use a mirror. And in accordance with the forum rules, you might want to cool your jets mon frere.


I've said nothing about you personally, only your argument. In fact, I've said that many very smart people made your bad argument during decades of A380 marketing. If I didn't have at least some hope that you're smart enough to realize you're making a bad argument, I wouldn't try.

most of the world is waiting on EASA's word on the 777X since it's insisting on a joint certification this time.


That's a possible defense to what I think is the obvious counterargument you need to address, but for your defense to work you'd have to show at least some evidence that airlines are chomping at the bit to order 777X but EASA/FAA just won't unleash the pent up demand. Is there any such evidence? Aside from EK, whose orders are dubious anyway, a small portion of 77W operators have ordered 779.

LHR and AMS are full, CDG is almost full, and FRA is almost full too


Same was true a couple years ago when they could have ordered gobs of cheap A380's to address this fullness. Yet it didn't happen. Despite all those very smart Airbus folks making the same exact argument over decades of fullness that you are making now. Have you at least pondered that fact?

And the VLA market future, as I assume we'd all think, is most certainly a prospect long beyond 2025.


Indeed. And I'm maybe the biggest VLA advocate on this entire forum.
I just think there are good and bad arguments for VLA's and I have seen the bad arguments damage VLA prospects for at least a generation. I'd rather see the industry not make the same mistake twice.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:43 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
If I'm transparently stupid you really could use a mirror. And in accordance with the forum rules, you might want to cool your jets mon frere.


I've said nothing about you personally, only your argument. In fact, I've said that many very smart people made your bad argument during decades of A380 marketing. If I didn't have at least some hope that you're smart enough to realize you're making a bad argument, I wouldn't try.

most of the world is waiting on EASA's word on the 777X since it's insisting on a joint certification this time.


That's a possible defense to what I think is the obvious counterargument you need to address, but for your defense to work you'd have to show at least some evidence that airlines are chomping at the bit to order 777X but EASA/FAA just won't unleash the pent up demand. Is there any such evidence? Aside from EK, whose orders are dubious anyway, a small portion of 77W operators have ordered 779.

LHR and AMS are full, CDG is almost full, and FRA is almost full too


Same was true a couple years ago when they could have ordered gobs of cheap A380's to address this fullness. Yet it didn't happen. Despite all those very smart Airbus folks making the same exact argument over decades of fullness that you are making now. Have you at least pondered that fact?

And the VLA market future, as I assume we'd all think, is most certainly a prospect long beyond 2025.


Indeed. And I'm maybe the biggest VLA advocate on this entire forum.
I just think there are good and bad arguments for VLA's and I have seen the bad arguments damage VLA prospects for at least a generation. I'd rather see the industry not make the same mistake twice.

As Boeing has stated previously, their belief is that the prospects of the 777X program improve over time. A lot of the 777-300ERs flying today are fairly young, and there are plenty of delivery slots open, so no one needs to rush to order it. Though I do have it on good authority Air Canada will place an order 10 or fewer in the next six months as long as CASA and EASA are happy with the 777X's compliance and progress on certification as the flight campaign begins.

LHR basically chipped away at NBs flying into it for the last 5 years and kept making more gate modifications for wide bodies. When a narrowbody can no longer land there, will that be enough for you to be convinced? BA almost exclusively flies A380, 747, A350, and 787-10 out of LHR these days. I don't see demand from New York, Chicago, and Atlanta reducing in the wake of Brexit, rather increasing, so those trunk route birds will also be under greater pressure. Luckily, BA has ordered the 777-9 to step in for the A350s where higher capacity is needed and in for the 747-8I as it retires.

The A380 also had specific technical problems such as reinforced runway requirements and F gates that even some trunk airports lacked or had no way of addressing. Those are where the 747-8 flies to since the A380 can't.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:45 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
A350s for China and 787s for India are already packed to the damn gills


I stand corrected. You haven't made zero arguments; you've partially made at least one transparently stupid argument.
To complete this bad argument, your next step would be, "given that these [fish, apparently] have no gill-space remaining, China and India must buy larger planes and have no room simply to add more longhaul 787/A350 flights."

You see the problem with your argument, right?
Let me help you out: How many 777-9's do China and India expect to receive over the next five or so years of growth?

Cathay Pacific will have 21 in all by 2024. The government-controlled airlines probably will avoid buying another american plane as long as they can after the MAX fiasco, and most of the world is waiting on EASA's word on the 777X since it's insisting on a joint certification this time. And the VLA market future, as I assume we'd all think, is most certainly a prospect long beyond 2025.

Also, did I not just say there is a shortage or outright lack of available slots at a lot of big hubs India and China would be flying to? LHR and AMS are full, CDG is almost full, and FRA is almost full too, to be inclusive of our European friends.

If I'm transparently stupid you really could use a mirror. And in accordance with the forum rules, you might want to cool your jets mon frere.


Long-haul routes flying to-and-from China have generally been loosing money for the airlines involved, with crap yields, over capacity and awful load factors being the norm. I don't see appetite to upguage these routes unless the route economics change, no matter what growth projections say.

India as an emerging market is also very, very price-sensitive, I reckon the growth in international air travel demand there will be better served by stuffing 370+ seats in A330s/787s rather than the premium + high-demand flying which is conducive to VLAs.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:04 am

JustSomeDood wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:

I stand corrected. You haven't made zero arguments; you've partially made at least one transparently stupid argument.
To complete this bad argument, your next step would be, "given that these [fish, apparently] have no gill-space remaining, China and India must buy larger planes and have no room simply to add more longhaul 787/A350 flights."

You see the problem with your argument, right?
Let me help you out: How many 777-9's do China and India expect to receive over the next five or so years of growth?

Cathay Pacific will have 21 in all by 2024. The government-controlled airlines probably will avoid buying another american plane as long as they can after the MAX fiasco, and most of the world is waiting on EASA's word on the 777X since it's insisting on a joint certification this time. And the VLA market future, as I assume we'd all think, is most certainly a prospect long beyond 2025.

Also, did I not just say there is a shortage or outright lack of available slots at a lot of big hubs India and China would be flying to? LHR and AMS are full, CDG is almost full, and FRA is almost full too, to be inclusive of our European friends.

If I'm transparently stupid you really could use a mirror. And in accordance with the forum rules, you might want to cool your jets mon frere.


Long-haul routes flying to-and-from China have generally been loosing money for the airlines involved, with crap yields, over capacity and awful load factors being the norm. I don't see appetite to upguage these routes unless the route economics change, no matter what growth projections say.

India as an emerging market is also very, very price-sensitive, I reckon the growth in international air travel demand there will be better served by stuffing 370+ seats in A330s/787s rather than the premium + high-demand flying which is conducive to VLAs.

from what historical data I can find, Chinese airlines have really only been losing money recently in the wake of Hong Kong and now Taiwan's mini rebellions.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:40 am

patrickjp93 wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
Cathay Pacific will have 21 in all by 2024. The government-controlled airlines probably will avoid buying another american plane as long as they can after the MAX fiasco, and most of the world is waiting on EASA's word on the 777X since it's insisting on a joint certification this time. And the VLA market future, as I assume we'd all think, is most certainly a prospect long beyond 2025.

Also, did I not just say there is a shortage or outright lack of available slots at a lot of big hubs India and China would be flying to? LHR and AMS are full, CDG is almost full, and FRA is almost full too, to be inclusive of our European friends.

If I'm transparently stupid you really could use a mirror. And in accordance with the forum rules, you might want to cool your jets mon frere.


Long-haul routes flying to-and-from China have generally been loosing money for the airlines involved, with crap yields, over capacity and awful load factors being the norm. I don't see appetite to upguage these routes unless the route economics change, no matter what growth projections say.

India as an emerging market is also very, very price-sensitive, I reckon the growth in international air travel demand there will be better served by stuffing 370+ seats in A330s/787s rather than the premium + high-demand flying which is conducive to VLAs.

from what historical data I can find, Chinese airlines have really only been losing money recently in the wake of Hong Kong and now Taiwan's mini rebellions.


Chinese Airlines haven't lost money as a whole, but their international routes sure have been loosing money for a good while https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1434035&hilit=Zoedyn. That figure is after the substantial local subsidies that airlines may receive to open such routes.

Its no better for foreign carriers as well, witness AA taking an axe to nearly every TPAC route ex-Chicago, United ending a ton of their routes to second-tier Chinese cities, and Delta outsourcing a lot of their Asia flying to KE. The shine has worn off the China growth story and airlines are adjusting as a result.
 
patrickjp93
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:39 pm

JustSomeDood wrote:
patrickjp93 wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:

Long-haul routes flying to-and-from China have generally been loosing money for the airlines involved, with crap yields, over capacity and awful load factors being the norm. I don't see appetite to upguage these routes unless the route economics change, no matter what growth projections say.

India as an emerging market is also very, very price-sensitive, I reckon the growth in international air travel demand there will be better served by stuffing 370+ seats in A330s/787s rather than the premium + high-demand flying which is conducive to VLAs.

from what historical data I can find, Chinese airlines have really only been losing money recently in the wake of Hong Kong and now Taiwan's mini rebellions.


Chinese Airlines haven't lost money as a whole, but their international routes sure have been loosing money for a good while https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1434035&hilit=Zoedyn. That figure is after the substantial local subsidies that airlines may receive to open such routes.

Its no better for foreign carriers as well, witness AA taking an axe to nearly every TPAC route ex-Chicago, United ending a ton of their routes to second-tier Chinese cities, and Delta outsourcing a lot of their Asia flying to KE. The shine has worn off the China growth story and airlines are adjusting as a result.

Well subsidizing an industry long-term never works out well. CX being able to run BNE-KHG-JFK for $1350 AUD vs. the 1850+ for BNE-LAX/YVR-(PHL/JFK)/EWR couldn't hold up for long.

AA not being able to compete with JAL, Fiji, Thai, and Philippine airlines isn't surprising either, and United is probably being charged hefty fees at secondary Chinese cities to make it easier for chinese airlines to compete.
 
LH707330
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:11 am

Matt6461 wrote:
LH707330 wrote:
My guess is that practical considerations like maintenance, etc. kill the business case, even if the math were to work out a few % better.


I can totally see that being the case; I'm not convinced either. To be convinced, I'd need a squad of engineers, accountants, and management analysts, as would any CEO reviewing this proposal. I'm just putting up an idea whose detailed analysis I haven't seen analyzed elsewhere. I'd love to read about it if you've seen it analyzed elsewhere...

I can see several factors changing the calculus from the the '90's, if in fact such a proposal was seriously considered back then:

1. Power by the Hour contracts in today's marketplace make the maintenance of different types more manageable. An OEM could write a PBH contract for just the smaller engine or, more likely, tie such a PBH agreement into a marketing pitch for an airline's broader fleet that would, presumably, include many of the smaller engines mounted on NB's.
2. Technology burden, especially the economic preponderance of LLP's, has increased since the 90's. Whereas most maintenance used to be spent on labor, it's now spent on LLP's. Because this proposal involves a positive delta to labor mx expense and negative delta to LLP mx expense, the landscape may be different.

To know whether "maintenance etc." would outweigh the couple % performance benefit, we'd need to know something about the maintenance delta. Any idea on how to estimate that? Frankly I don't have such an idea, but I can't see it how it'd be huge. For four identical engines you need, say 20 mx personnel, for two pair of different engines, do you 25 personnel? Even if (1) the disparate pair is 10% lower in total thrust than would be the quadruplets and (2) the smaller engines are universal types like PW1100 or LEAP? I would expect the PW1100/LEAP mx expense being significantly lower, per lb-T, than the quadruplets. You have the LLP factor plus the sheer scale of NB engine mx infrastructure. That would mean you'd need a significant management/other delta for the administrative complexity added.

It's not like the OEM's are incapable of missing things or of making huge mistakes (see, e.g., MAX and A380).

Well, what if the quadruplets were the cheap engines? Around 2006, Airbus had started testing the GTF, so it's not completely out of the ordinary that they would have considered a 340neo back then. How big was PBH back then? The single-source on the OEO is one of the main things that killed the 340-300 from an acquisition cost standpoint against the three-engine choice 777, so giving the idea another go with engine choices would have been under consideration. I speculated about that in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1435995 I'd be curious to get your thoughts on the back-of-the-napkin 340neo, but that's getting slightly OT.

I've not looked into the concept of the two-pair quad more myself, hence the speculation about it. If you look at this article, it suggests 10-20% of DOC is engines. If you make that more complex and add 1 pp to save 1% in fuel, you're probably going backward. Then there's a scale effect: by the same argument that two different engine types in a fleet maxes sense above X units, you could notionally make the same point about the two-pair idea, you just need a fleet of X for it to make sense, provided of course that it has an advantage. Now it's trickier to lease out, etc.

Where's Lightsaber, I'd be curious for his take on the topic.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Future VLA Market?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:55 am

LH707330 wrote:
Well, what if the quadruplets were the cheap engines?


Could totally change the equation, especially if there weren't somewhat "off-the-shelf" larger and smaller engines.

LH707330 wrote:
If you look at this article, it suggests 10-20% of DOC is engines. If you make that more complex and add 1 pp to save 1% in fuel, you're probably going backward.


I scanned the article but not sure what "10-20% of DOC" means. Is that cost of engine purchase and mx? Engine's contributions to fuel burn (through parasite drag and weight)? Engine's knock-on effects on overall frame size/expense, compared to a towed glider?

I'm sure it doesn't include not the towed glider comparative hypo, but unless an analysis accounts for the system-level impact of my proposal's claimed (from first principles only) negative delta to fin size, it would be incomplete.

Re complexity - this might be repeating myself but we have to disaggregate administrative and technical complexity. Compared to a normal quad, the proposal should reduce technical complexity: you have to mount/fuel/maintain four engines regardless and I'm just turning two of those engines into simpler, more robust NB types rather than the fine-tuned thoroughbreds mounted on WB's. On the tech side, there should be less complexity. Administratively, yes, it's more complex. But with the shift from labor to LLP within the mx cost burden (a shift that wasn't as marked for the 717 discussed in your doc, btw), the administrative/labor issues are less salient. Engine mx in total doesn't exceed 10% of DOC, afaics. Given a 2:1 ratio of parts to labor/admin within engine mx (~3% DOC for labor), you'd need a transformative adminstrative quandary for my layout to cause a 1% DOC delta.

LH70730 wrote:
Where's Lightsaber, I'd be curious for his take on the topic.


IIRC I've pushed this proposal at him a couple times and he either thinks it's too dumb for his time or has responded and I'm too dumb to understand. :)

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