Niloko wrote:

texl1649 wrote:

Niloko wrote:

The 777-300ER/200LR did feature new generation GE90, bigger wing with raked wing tips and many more improvements allowing for extra range, mtow and efficiency. It's called the second generation of the 777 for a reason.
Because of these all improvements, the 777-9 and A350-1000 only give around 10-13% less fuel burn from 777-300ER compared to something like 20-25% less fuel burn of 787-10 and A350-900 vs 777-200.

Ok, but it did all of that 20+ years ago. It’s not really an apt comparator to the A350-1000 as it…is basically the older generation now (779 being functionally a half generation newer based on the engines alone). I guess it could be said that the A350-1000 was also launched in 2006...15 years ago, yet only about 56 are in service/delivered. It is odd how poorly this model has sold.

Well I think the 777-300ER did hurt the A350-1000 a little bit considering it got dozens of orders in the mid to late 2010s from airlines who wanted a large sized airplane faster and for cheaper.

The 35K is selling poorly probably because the 77W is still very capable and fairly new. Majority of the airlines who have a place for large aircraft in their fleet have the 777-300ER and haven't planned it's retirement/replacement yet. And out of the few airlines that have planned retirements for 777-300ER almost all have ordered the 777-9 to do so. The current largest A350 operators have also chosen 777-9 to replace their 77W over A350-1000.

I think the A350-1000 and 777-9's main attraction for airlines is being a replacement of the very successful 777-300ER and it looks like the 777-9 does a better job at it. Only very few airlines will be there who will order the A350-1000 or 777-9 without the purpose of replacing the 77W/ 346/744.But you can expect a boost of sales for both A350-1000 and 777-9 in around mid - late 2020s when most full service carriers will start to think about retirements of 77W.

I think it'd be more accurate to say that the 779 will replace most of the 77W's flying, but quite a few airlines (CX, SQ, AF, QR for example) have replaced 77Ws with A359s and in some cases 789s, even prior to the pandemic. The A359 and 789 being capable and right-sized has eroded the 779's appeal somewhat. The 779 being larger also takes away a few orders with there being smaller options available.

MrHMSH wrote:

Niloko wrote:

texl1649 wrote:

Ok, but it did all of that 20+ years ago. It’s not really an apt comparator to the A350-1000 as it…is basically the older generation now (779 being functionally a half generation newer based on the engines alone). I guess it could be said that the A350-1000 was also launched in 2006...15 years ago, yet only about 56 are in service/delivered. It is odd how poorly this model has sold.

Well I think the 777-300ER did hurt the A350-1000 a little bit considering it got dozens of orders in the mid to late 2010s from airlines who wanted a large sized airplane faster and for cheaper.

The 35K is selling poorly probably because the 77W is still very capable and fairly new. Majority of the airlines who have a place for large aircraft in their fleet have the 777-300ER and haven't planned it's retirement/replacement yet. And out of the few airlines that have planned retirements for 777-300ER almost all have ordered the 777-9 to do so. The current largest A350 operators have also chosen 777-9 to replace their 77W over A350-1000.

I think the A350-1000 and 777-9's main attraction for airlines is being a replacement of the very successful 777-300ER and it looks like the 777-9 does a better job at it. Only very few airlines will be there who will order the A350-1000 or 777-9 without the purpose of replacing the 77W/ 346/744.But you can expect a boost of sales for both A350-1000 and 777-9 in around mid - late 2020s when most full service carriers will start to think about retirements of 77W.

I think it'd be more accurate to say that the 779 will replace most of the 77W's flying, but quite a few airlines (CX, SQ, AF, QR for example) have replaced 77Ws with A359s and in some cases 789s, even prior to the pandemic. The A359 and 789 being capable and right-sized has eroded the 779's appeal somewhat. The 779 being larger also takes away a few orders with there being smaller options available.

Agree that it is fair to say the 77W replacement market is, especially post-Covid/2020, going to be quite fragmented.

MrHMSH wrote:

Niloko wrote:

texl1649 wrote:

Ok, but it did all of that 20+ years ago. It’s not really an apt comparator to the A350-1000 as it…is basically the older generation now (779 being functionally a half generation newer based on the engines alone). I guess it could be said that the A350-1000 was also launched in 2006...15 years ago, yet only about 56 are in service/delivered. It is odd how poorly this model has sold.

Well I think the 777-300ER did hurt the A350-1000 a little bit considering it got dozens of orders in the mid to late 2010s from airlines who wanted a large sized airplane faster and for cheaper.

The 35K is selling poorly probably because the 77W is still very capable and fairly new. Majority of the airlines who have a place for large aircraft in their fleet have the 777-300ER and haven't planned it's retirement/replacement yet. And out of the few airlines that have planned retirements for 777-300ER almost all have ordered the 777-9 to do so. The current largest A350 operators have also chosen 777-9 to replace their 77W over A350-1000.

I think the A350-1000 and 777-9's main attraction for airlines is being a replacement of the very successful 777-300ER and it looks like the 777-9 does a better job at it. Only very few airlines will be there who will order the A350-1000 or 777-9 without the purpose of replacing the 77W/ 346/744.But you can expect a boost of sales for both A350-1000 and 777-9 in around mid - late 2020s when most full service carriers will start to think about retirements of 77W.

I think it'd be more accurate to say that the 779 will replace most of the 77W's flying, but quite a few airlines (CX, SQ, AF, QR for example) have replaced 77Ws with A359s and in some cases 789s, even prior to the pandemic. The A359 and 789 being capable and right-sized has eroded the 779's appeal somewhat. The 779 being larger also takes away a few orders with there being smaller options available.

I think the examples you gave aren't really the best. Cathay has ordered enough 777-9 to replace all their first class 77W and enough A350-1000 to replace non first class 77W. Qatar has ordered more than enough 777-9 and -8 to replace 77W and 77L. SQ has ordered more 777-9 than what their 77W fleet's size was because it'll be replacing both 77W and 388. These airlines are the ones who like to maintain a very new fleet so probably retired a few of the "old" 77W and used the small 359 and 789 as temporary replacements until their 777-9 arrive.

And for Air France I have heard 0 news about them retiring 777-300ER. They're replacing the retired 772* not 77W with 359 and 789.

texl1649 wrote:

MrHMSH wrote:

Niloko wrote:

Well I think the 777-300ER did hurt the A350-1000 a little bit considering it got dozens of orders in the mid to late 2010s from airlines who wanted a large sized airplane faster and for cheaper.

The 35K is selling poorly probably because the 77W is still very capable and fairly new. Majority of the airlines who have a place for large aircraft in their fleet have the 777-300ER and haven't planned it's retirement/replacement yet. And out of the few airlines that have planned retirements for 777-300ER almost all have ordered the 777-9 to do so. The current largest A350 operators have also chosen 777-9 to replace their 77W over A350-1000.

I think the A350-1000 and 777-9's main attraction for airlines is being a replacement of the very successful 777-300ER and it looks like the 777-9 does a better job at it. Only very few airlines will be there who will order the A350-1000 or 777-9 without the purpose of replacing the 77W/ 346/744.But you can expect a boost of sales for both A350-1000 and 777-9 in around mid - late 2020s when most full service carriers will start to think about retirements of 77W.

I think it'd be more accurate to say that the 779 will replace most of the 77W's flying, but quite a few airlines (CX, SQ, AF, QR for example) have replaced 77Ws with A359s and in some cases 789s, even prior to the pandemic. The A359 and 789 being capable and right-sized has eroded the 779's appeal somewhat. The 779 being larger also takes away a few orders with there being smaller options available.

Agree that it is fair to say the 77W replacement market is, especially post-Covid/2020, going to be quite fragmented.

I don't think so with how almost everyone retiring 77W has ordered 779, some like Singapore Airlines have even increased their order for it this pandemic. Also don't forget that the cargo capabilities of the 777-300ER is one of the big reasons why it became a hit. Airlines who can't even fill 787 properly currently this pandemic are using 77W in some routes for cargo, even if they'll barely fill the passenger seats. Another role the 77W fills in many airlines is being the flag ship aircraft with first class. Most fairly big carriers will definitely order either 351 or 779 as it's replacement because of those reasons. And the future for 351 as 77W replacement for now doesn't seem too bright with many major 351 operators ordering 779 to replace 77W. The biggest 351 customer who ordered 6 dozen 777X to replace their 77L/W fleet even said the 351 can't match the 777-9. (in terms of things like passenger and cargo capacity I assume is what he meant)

Niloko wrote:

MrHMSH wrote:

Niloko wrote:

Well I think the 777-300ER did hurt the A350-1000 a little bit considering it got dozens of orders in the mid to late 2010s from airlines who wanted a large sized airplane faster and for cheaper.

The 35K is selling poorly probably because the 77W is still very capable and fairly new. Majority of the airlines who have a place for large aircraft in their fleet have the 777-300ER and haven't planned it's retirement/replacement yet. And out of the few airlines that have planned retirements for 777-300ER almost all have ordered the 777-9 to do so. The current largest A350 operators have also chosen 777-9 to replace their 77W over A350-1000.

I think the A350-1000 and 777-9's main attraction for airlines is being a replacement of the very successful 777-300ER and it looks like the 777-9 does a better job at it. Only very few airlines will be there who will order the A350-1000 or 777-9 without the purpose of replacing the 77W/ 346/744.But you can expect a boost of sales for both A350-1000 and 777-9 in around mid - late 2020s when most full service carriers will start to think about retirements of 77W.

I think it'd be more accurate to say that the 779 will replace most of the 77W's flying, but quite a few airlines (CX, SQ, AF, QR for example) have replaced 77Ws with A359s and in some cases 789s, even prior to the pandemic. The A359 and 789 being capable and right-sized has eroded the 779's appeal somewhat. The 779 being larger also takes away a few orders with there being smaller options available.

I think the examples you gave aren't really the best. Cathay has ordered enough 777-9 to replace all their first class 77W and enough A350-1000 to replace non first class 77W. Qatar has ordered more than enough 777-9 and -8 to replace 77W and 77L. SQ has ordered more 777-9 than what their 77W fleet's size was because it'll be replacing both 77W and 388. These airlines are the ones who like to maintain a very new fleet so probably retired a few of the "old" 77W and used the small 359 and 789 as temporary replacements until their 777-9 arrive.

And for Air France I have heard 0 news about them retiring 777-300ER. They're replacing the retired 772* not 77W with 359 and 789.

When I say 'replace 77W flying' I mean that some routes that were flown by 77Ws are now flown by A359s. Doesn't mean the 77W has been retired or replaced entirely. Some of the 779s will take up A380 flying as you say, but quite a few routes have been downgauged, and that's a trend I see continuing as the 77W was widely popular, but the 779 has a narrower appeal. I see a fair few airlines that had 77Ws going for A359s or 787s in the long term.

MrHMSH wrote:

Niloko wrote:

MrHMSH wrote:

I think it'd be more accurate to say that the 779 will replace most of the 77W's flying, but quite a few airlines (CX, SQ, AF, QR for example) have replaced 77Ws with A359s and in some cases 789s, even prior to the pandemic. The A359 and 789 being capable and right-sized has eroded the 779's appeal somewhat. The 779 being larger also takes away a few orders with there being smaller options available.

I think the examples you gave aren't really the best. Cathay has ordered enough 777-9 to replace all their first class 77W and enough A350-1000 to replace non first class 77W. Qatar has ordered more than enough 777-9 and -8 to replace 77W and 77L. SQ has ordered more 777-9 than what their 77W fleet's size was because it'll be replacing both 77W and 388. These airlines are the ones who like to maintain a very new fleet so probably retired a few of the "old" 77W and used the small 359 and 789 as temporary replacements until their 777-9 arrive.

And for Air France I have heard 0 news about them retiring 777-300ER. They're replacing the retired 772* not 77W with 359 and 789.

When I say 'replace 77W flying' I mean that some routes that were flown by 77Ws are now flown by A359s. Doesn't mean the 77W has been retired or replaced entirely. Some of the 779s will take up A380 flying as you say, but quite a few routes have been downgauged, and that's a trend I see continuing as the 77W was widely popular, but the 779 has a narrower appeal. I see a fair few airlines that had 77Ws going for A359s or 787s in the long term.

Like I mentioned in the above comment, one of the big appeals of 777-300ER is it's cargo capabilities for many airlines and they use the 77W in many routes where they can barely fill the passenger seats because of it. And another appeal is the 77W being big enough to justify being the flag ship of many airlines and having first class seats. So for most airlines I really don't see the 359 and 789 replacing 77W with them. Sure, few like you said definitely will but in return there will be a few non 77W operators ordering the 779, airlines like Lufthansa for example.

Niloko wrote:

MrHMSH wrote:

Niloko wrote:

I think the examples you gave aren't really the best. Cathay has ordered enough 777-9 to replace all their first class 77W and enough A350-1000 to replace non first class 77W. Qatar has ordered more than enough 777-9 and -8 to replace 77W and 77L. SQ has ordered more 777-9 than what their 77W fleet's size was because it'll be replacing both 77W and 388. These airlines are the ones who like to maintain a very new fleet so probably retired a few of the "old" 77W and used the small 359 and 789 as temporary replacements until their 777-9 arrive.

And for Air France I have heard 0 news about them retiring 777-300ER. They're replacing the retired 772* not 77W with 359 and 789.

When I say 'replace 77W flying' I mean that some routes that were flown by 77Ws are now flown by A359s. Doesn't mean the 77W has been retired or replaced entirely. Some of the 779s will take up A380 flying as you say, but quite a few routes have been downgauged, and that's a trend I see continuing as the 77W was widely popular, but the 779 has a narrower appeal. I see a fair few airlines that had 77Ws going for A359s or 787s in the long term.

Like I mentioned in the above comment, one of the big appeals of 777-300ER is it's cargo capabilities for many airlines and they use the 77W in many routes where they can barely fill the passenger seats because of it. And another appeal is the 77W being big enough to justify being the flag ship of many airlines and having first class seats. So for most airlines I really don't see the 359 and 789 replacing 77W with them. Sure, few like you said definitely will but in return there will be a few non 77W operators ordering the 779, airlines like Lufthansa for example.

First Class has been diminishing, many airlines just have better Business Class and that effectively replaces First. Some airlines at massive hubs will of course still have it, but for quite a few airlines offering a better or larger First Class is decreasing in importance, as relatively few cities can sustain it. I'm sure the airlines that run partially full 77Ws would rather fly a right-sized aircraft with less cargo space, but they might as well use what's available to them now so the 77W has an important role still.

On the other hand, the 779 only has orders from 2 airlines that didn't have A380s (NH and CX), some airlines like KL, AA and UA will probably order them, but for the most part 777X customers will have been A380 customers at some point, and that's not a tremendously wide appeal. A lot of airlines that used the 77W used it because it was small enough, had great efficiency and very good long range capabilities, now there are 2 well-established options that are smaller. Given that we see a long-term trend for smaller aircraft flying more direct routes I just don't see how the 777X will achieve the wide appeal and sales that the 77W did.

That airlines with 777X orders are deferring and there have been rumours about downsizing (CX, EK, EY) is far from good news for the program. The A35K won't suffer from the same problem as it can leverage the A359 line, if it's not selling then the A359 will pick up the slack, not a luxury afforded to the 779. They could even not have orders for A35Ks but still have it on offer.

MrHMSH wrote:

Niloko wrote:

MrHMSH wrote:

When I say 'replace 77W flying' I mean that some routes that were flown by 77Ws are now flown by A359s. Doesn't mean the 77W has been retired or replaced entirely. Some of the 779s will take up A380 flying as you say, but quite a few routes have been downgauged, and that's a trend I see continuing as the 77W was widely popular, but the 779 has a narrower appeal. I see a fair few airlines that had 77Ws going for A359s or 787s in the long term.

Like I mentioned in the above comment, one of the big appeals of 777-300ER is it's cargo capabilities for many airlines and they use the 77W in many routes where they can barely fill the passenger seats because of it. And another appeal is the 77W being big enough to justify being the flag ship of many airlines and having first class seats. So for most airlines I really don't see the 359 and 789 replacing 77W with them. Sure, few like you said definitely will but in return there will be a few non 77W operators ordering the 779, airlines like Lufthansa for example.

First Class has been diminishing, many airlines just have better Business Class and that effectively replaces First. Some airlines at massive hubs will of course still have it, but for quite a few airlines offering a better or larger First Class is decreasing in importance, as relatively few cities can sustain it. I'm sure the airlines that run partially full 77Ws would rather fly a right-sized aircraft with less cargo space, but they might as well use what's available to them now so the 77W has an important role still.

On the other hand, the 779 only has orders from 2 airlines that didn't have A380s (NH and CX), some airlines like KL, AA and UA will probably order them, but for the most part 777X customers will have been A380 customers at some point, and that's not a tremendously wide appeal. A lot of airlines that used the 77W used it because it was small enough, had great efficiency and very good long range capabilities, now there are 2 well-established options that are smaller. Given that we see a long-term trend for smaller aircraft flying more direct routes I just don't see how the 777X will achieve the wide appeal and sales that the 77W did.

That airlines with 777X orders are deferring and there have been rumours about downsizing (CX, EK, EY) is far from good news for the program. The A35K won't suffer from the same problem as it can leverage the A359 line, if it's not selling then the A359 will pick up the slack, not a luxury afforded to the 779. They could even not have orders for A35Ks but still have it on offer.

I don't see how the airline owning A380 is relevant tbh because the main use of 779 in their fleet is replacing 77W. Also remember that the 777-300ER continued to get orders even after the 789 and 359 came even from airlines that already operated one of these 2 or both. Because of that there's a very realistic chance that multiple airlines for eg KLM, Swiss, Kuwait, Ethiopian when their 77W starts getting older will order the 777-9.And no, airlines didn't buy the 777-300ER because it was small enough. A lot of them bought it because it was the closest thing to a 747 replacement. It was a very large aircraft that had unbeatable efficiency in the early 2000s, had very good range and cargo capabilities. Airlines who wanted a small enough but capable plane ordered the A330 or 772 to fulfill that need.For many full service carriers, first class is still an important part of the airline.Sure it's not something that most planes have but it's still very common in flag ship airplanes of fcc.

Yes I agree reaching the wide appeal that the 777W did doesn't seem too possible for 777X or A350-1000 but the plane should easily be able to cross 500 orders by late 2020s (when many airlines will start thinking about replacing older 77W) and be a successful program.

The biggest things that I can tell that the 779X has going for it right now over the A35k is the space available in the cabin for first if required, the overall capacity and the capital cost per seat. My estimates put the A35k at a price of 137m and the 779X at ~149m however the because of the lack of a useful sibling the cost 'can' be pushed lower and still make cash sense for Boeing.

The 779X has no payload, range or fuel burn per seat advantage over the A350 as it stands.

Fred

Fred

Niloko wrote:

I don't see how the airline owning A380 is relevant tbh because the main use of 779 in their fleet is replacing 77W. Also remember that the 777-300ER continued to get orders even after the 789 and 359 came even from airlines that already operated one of these 2 or both. Because of that there's a very realistic chance that multiple airlines for eg KLM, Swiss, Kuwait, Ethiopian when their 77W starts getting older will order the 777-9.And no, airlines didn't buy the 777-300ER because it was small enough. A lot of them bought it because it was the closest thing to a 747 replacement. It was a very large aircraft that had unbeatable efficiency in the early 2000s, had very good range and cargo capabilities. Airlines who wanted a small enough but capable plane ordered the A330 or 772 to fulfill that need.For many full service carriers, first class is still an important part of the airline.Sure it's not something that most planes have but it's still very common in flag ship airplanes of fcc.

Yes I agree reaching the wide appeal that the 777W did doesn't seem too possible for 777X or A350-1000 but the plane should easily be able to cross 500 orders by late 2020s (when many airlines will start thinking about replacing older 77W) and be a successful program.

The point is that very large aircraft have a limited appeal, not too many airlines that didn't order A380s will be 779 customers. There will of course be some, but not a huge number. There will be airlines that don't need the size and some that go for the A35K (and this is an option as the A359 is established at many 777 operators).

The 77W in the 2010s sold mainly on the strength of its availability, commonality and amortised production line allowing lower purchase costs. The A330 profited in the same way.

500 units without considering 77W replacements seems pretty ambitious to me, especially considering that there may be downsizing of the current orderbook.

MrHMSH wrote:

Niloko wrote:

I don't see how the airline owning A380 is relevant tbh because the main use of 779 in their fleet is replacing 77W. Also remember that the 777-300ER continued to get orders even after the 789 and 359 came even from airlines that already operated one of these 2 or both. Because of that there's a very realistic chance that multiple airlines for eg KLM, Swiss, Kuwait, Ethiopian when their 77W starts getting older will order the 777-9.And no, airlines didn't buy the 777-300ER because it was small enough. A lot of them bought it because it was the closest thing to a 747 replacement. It was a very large aircraft that had unbeatable efficiency in the early 2000s, had very good range and cargo capabilities. Airlines who wanted a small enough but capable plane ordered the A330 or 772 to fulfill that need.For many full service carriers, first class is still an important part of the airline.Sure it's not something that most planes have but it's still very common in flag ship airplanes of fcc.

Yes I agree reaching the wide appeal that the 777W did doesn't seem too possible for 777X or A350-1000 but the plane should easily be able to cross 500 orders by late 2020s (when many airlines will start thinking about replacing older 77W) and be a successful program.

The point is that very large aircraft have a limited appeal, not too many airlines that didn't order A380s will be 779 customers. There will of course be some, but not a huge number. There will be airlines that don't need the size and some that go for the A35K (and this is an option as the A359 is established at many 777 operators).

The 77W in the 2010s sold mainly on the strength of its availability, commonality and amortised production line allowing lower purchase costs. The A330 profited in the same way.

500 units without considering 77W replacements seems pretty ambitious to me, especially considering that there may be downsizing of the current orderbook.

Yes I get your point but what I'm trying to say is that there are a lot of airlines that replaced the very popular jumbo 747-400 with 777-300ER and will be looking at a plane equally big to fulfill that role. And 777-9 is perfect for that. The 747-400 passenger had a role of being the premium aircraft and the main cargo plane in those airlines and the 789 and 359 simply can't fulfill this role nearly as well.

I agree with your point about 77W in 2010s having lower purchase costs but still airlines wouldn't have bought this airplane which is still the biggest twin flying commercially if they didn't have a place for large planes in their fleet. Airlines who wanted a smaller airplane still got the A330ceo even in the 2010s and airlines who saw a potential for a large plane got the 77W.

Also 500 is definitely realistic even if some down size their orders now. A few of many examples of big airlines that I think have a very high chance to purchase 777-9 are Turkish, Kuwait, United, KLM, Korean. Sure orders from some of these airlines might not come until even early 2030s but they do have a good place for large aircraft in their fleet.

Niloko wrote:

And for Air France I have heard 0 news about them retiring 777-300ER. They're replacing the retired 772* not 77W with 359 and 789.

AF/KL is the second largest 777 operator. It is very likely there will be 777X s in the future, even if it may take until 2030 or later.

Please continue discusss 777X sales prospects here:

Boeing 777X Sales Campaign and Prospects - 2021

Purpose of this thread is to discuss technical aspects of 777-300ER vs. A350-100 (vs. 777X). Thanks.