seat1a wrote:

Wondering two things: (1) Can the 787 or 350 do Tokyo-Miami nonstop? The distance is about 7,400 miles, less than ORD-AUK which is about 8,200 miles, so appears doable. Next obvious question is (2) is there market here for Japan Airlines, ANA or American on a daily basis or slightly-less daily basis?

STT757 wrote:

Absolutely the range is there for the 787, A350 and probably the 77W. However, it has always been my belief that the first Japan-Florida route will be Orlando. The flights would rely on Japanese point of sale which will be leisure. One day we will find out. Florida is not the most diverse state outside of Hispanic culture, there's probably more demand for flights to the Philippines from Florida than anywhere else in Asia due to the cruise industry.

x1234 wrote:

It would be either JL/AA. Also I heard that the lucrative East Asia-Latin America traffic is routed mostly via Europe/Middle East. EK serves GRU, GIG and EZE while QR serves GRU and EZE. Of course you have the European majors flying to everywhere in Latin America. If they want to transit Northern Latin America ANA and AM already fly NRT-MEX daily and I heard its a very lucrative route for ANA. AM has pushed MEX-ICN to 2024. Of course you can transit through Canada (YYZ/YUL mostly) with a eTA. Also CM already flies SFO/LAX/JFK/ORD-PTY and AV flies LAX-BOG if you want to transit the US. If you want Deep South America you can of course transit through DFW/IAH/IAD/ORD/JFK/EWR.

Flogskipari wrote:

STT757 wrote:

Absolutely the range is there for the 787, A350 and probably the 77W. However, it has always been my belief that the first Japan-Florida route will be Orlando. The flights would rely on Japanese point of sale which will be leisure. One day we will find out. Florida is not the most diverse state outside of Hispanic culture, there's probably more demand for flights to the Philippines from Florida than anywhere else in Asia due to the cruise industry.

Any reason for thinking Orlando will be the first destination? As far as I know, it's a lower-yield destination than Miami, with fewer corporate clients than Miami, and definitely fewer connection possibilities to South America (mainly São Paulo and Lima matter here) than Miami. The major draw of Orlando is Disney. There's one of those right in Tokyo...

SCFlyer wrote:

Orlando would seem to be the better port for O&D / Tourism Attractions, despite the lower yield.
Miami would be better for connections plus the strong O&D to complement that.

BWIAirport wrote:

Wasn't there a TYO-MIA charter for the World Baseball Classic in March on a JL 789? I would think that is pretty representative of a typical passenger flight

STT757 wrote:

Flogskipari wrote:

STT757 wrote:

Absolutely the range is there for the 787, A350 and probably the 77W. However, it has always been my belief that the first Japan-Florida route will be Orlando. The flights would rely on Japanese point of sale which will be leisure. One day we will find out. Florida is not the most diverse state outside of Hispanic culture, there's probably more demand for flights to the Philippines from Florida than anywhere else in Asia due to the cruise industry.

Any reason for thinking Orlando will be the first destination? As far as I know, it's a lower-yield destination than Miami, with fewer corporate clients than Miami, and definitely fewer connection possibilities to South America (mainly São Paulo and Lima matter here) than Miami. The major draw of Orlando is Disney. There's one of those right in Tokyo...

You said it, Disney. If it's driven by leisure demand Disney is the major draw in Florida. Yes, the beaches are nice, Hawaii's are better and significantly closer. I don't see Miami as a major draw for tourists from Japan, MCO is the busiest airport in Florida for a reason.

Flogskipari wrote:

STT757 wrote:

Flogskipari wrote:

Any reason for thinking Orlando will be the first destination? As far as I know, it's a lower-yield destination than Miami, with fewer corporate clients than Miami, and definitely fewer connection possibilities to South America (mainly São Paulo and Lima matter here) than Miami. The major draw of Orlando is Disney. There's one of those right in Tokyo...

You said it, Disney. If it's driven by leisure demand Disney is the major draw in Florida. Yes, the beaches are nice, Hawaii's are better and significantly closer. I don't see Miami as a major draw for tourists from Japan, MCO is the busiest airport in Florida for a reason.

But again: There's a Disneyland right in Tokyo. I don't have the numbers, I tried to find them but couldn't, but how many Japanese fly to the other side of the world to go to Disney in Orlando instead of the one at home in Japan? When they go to the US, they probably also stop in California or New York, or some other major tourist site, so I dare a guess that very few just fly into Orlando to go to Disney and then fly out to Japan again.

STT757 wrote:

Flogskipari wrote:

STT757 wrote:

You said it, Disney. If it's driven by leisure demand Disney is the major draw in Florida. Yes, the beaches are nice, Hawaii's are better and significantly closer. I don't see Miami as a major draw for tourists from Japan, MCO is the busiest airport in Florida for a reason.

But again: There's a Disneyland right in Tokyo. I don't have the numbers, I tried to find them but couldn't, but how many Japanese fly to the other side of the world to go to Disney in Orlando instead of the one at home in Japan? When they go to the US, they probably also stop in California or New York, or some other major tourist site, so I dare a guess that very few just fly into Orlando to go to Disney and then fly out to Japan again.

Walt Disney World would be similar to Las Vegas, there are closer versions of each to Japan, yet both get plenty of Japanese visitors each year. Although, as of now, it has not translated into nonstops. I believe during the Haneda applications someone, maybe DL?, applied for HND-LAS as one of their options.

STT757 wrote:

SCFlyer wrote:

Orlando would seem to be the better port for O&D / Tourism Attractions, despite the lower yield.
Miami would be better for connections plus the strong O&D to complement that.

The only demand from Japan further beyond Florida would be Peru and Brazil. For Peru, California and Texas would be better for connections while Brazil EWR/JFK would be better. In fact, JAL used to fly JFK-GRU.

This has been discussed many times, it's been established that Orlando has a higher PDEW from Japan than Miami.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1436399

Flogskipari wrote:

STT757 wrote:

Flogskipari wrote:

But again: There's a Disneyland right in Tokyo. I don't have the numbers, I tried to find them but couldn't, but how many Japanese fly to the other side of the world to go to Disney in Orlando instead of the one at home in Japan? When they go to the US, they probably also stop in California or New York, or some other major tourist site, so I dare a guess that very few just fly into Orlando to go to Disney and then fly out to Japan again.

Walt Disney World would be similar to Las Vegas, there are closer versions of each to Japan, yet both get plenty of Japanese visitors each year. Although, as of now, it has not translated into nonstops. I believe during the Haneda applications someone, maybe DL?, applied for HND-LAS as one of their options.

Do they? Have you got the numbers for Japanese visitors to Walt Disney World in Orlando? I tried to find it but couldn't.

Japanese tourists visit Orlando and the Disney attractions more than any other part of Florida, but no agency keeps accurate statistics on the number of Japanese tourists that visit various cities in the state, Chryst said.

STT757 wrote:

Absolutely the range is there for the 787, A350 and probably the 77W. However, it has always been my belief that the first Japan-Florida route will be Orlando. The flights would rely on Japanese point of sale which will be leisure. One day we will find out. Florida is not the most diverse state outside of Hispanic culture, there's probably more demand for flights to the Philippines from Florida than anywhere else in Asia due to the cruise industry.

Judge1310 wrote:

There is no need for a nonstop when a customer out of Japan would, literally, be over-flying every other hub in the US and Canada.

dennypayne wrote:

Judge1310 wrote:

There is no need for a nonstop when a customer out of Japan would, literally, be over-flying every other hub in the US and Canada.

Yeah because I hate it when airlines try to get me to my destination 4 hours quicker and make me miss out on running through a second airport hoping my bags transfer properly.

seat1a wrote:

Wondering two things: (1) Can the 787 or 350 do Tokyo-Miami nonstop? The distance is about 7,400 miles, less than ORD-AUK which is about 8,200 miles, so appears doable. Next obvious question is (2) is there market here for Japan Airlines, ANA or American on a daily basis or slightly-less daily basis?

Thank you!

dennypayne wrote:

Judge1310 wrote:

There is no need for a nonstop when a customer out of Japan would, literally, be over-flying every other hub in the US and Canada.

Yeah because I hate it when airlines try to get me to my destination 4 hours quicker and make me miss out on running through a second airport hoping my bags transfer properly.

Judge1310 wrote:

dennypayne wrote:

Judge1310 wrote:

There is no need for a nonstop when a customer out of Japan would, literally, be over-flying every other hub in the US and Canada.

Yeah because I hate it when airlines try to get me to my destination 4 hours quicker and make me miss out on running through a second airport hoping my bags transfer properly.

Your response tells me that you truly don't understand how airline economics actually works.

dennypayne wrote:

Judge1310 wrote:

dennypayne wrote:

Yeah because I hate it when airlines try to get me to my destination 4 hours quicker and make me miss out on running through a second airport hoping my bags transfer properly.

Your response tells me that you truly don't understand how airline economics actually works.

Of course I understand that most city pairs will be pushed through a hub - but "how airline economics work" is that they will run the numbers and maximize profit - nonstops almost always will command a yield premium, so saying that there is "no need" for one because hubs exist is shortsighted if the PDEW is sufficient. My tongue-in-cheek response was intended to show that there are customers that value nonstops and will pay a premium for them.

seat1a wrote:

Wondering two things: (1) Can the 787 or 350 do Tokyo-Miami nonstop? The distance is about 7,400 miles, less than ORD-AUK which is about 8,200 miles, so appears doable. Next obvious question is (2) is there market here for Japan Airlines, ANA or American on a daily basis or slightly-less daily basis?

Thank you!

x1234 wrote:

Yeah I forgot, TK now flies to MEX, CUN, PTY, BOG, HAV, CCS, GRU and EZE in Latin America.

N1120A wrote:

seat1a wrote:

ORD-AUK is 2876nm, so the range is there. Departing a 787 or 350 off a 4000' by 75' runway might be a bit tough

[.

Judge1310 wrote:

dennypayne wrote:

Judge1310 wrote:

Your response tells me that you truly don't understand how airline economics actually works.

Of course I understand that most city pairs will be pushed through a hub - but "how airline economics work" is that they will run the numbers and maximize profit - nonstops almost always will command a yield premium, so saying that there is "no need" for one because hubs exist is shortsighted if the PDEW is sufficient. My tongue-in-cheek response was intended to show that there are customers that value nonstops and will pay a premium for them.

Sure, for those customers that value nonstops, then they can fly private. But the PDEW isn't enough to warrant the economic viability of such a route. That's simply it.

LAX772LR wrote:

Judge1310 wrote:

dennypayne wrote:

Of course I understand that most city pairs will be pushed through a hub - but "how airline economics work" is that they will run the numbers and maximize profit - nonstops almost always will command a yield premium, so saying that there is "no need" for one because hubs exist is shortsighted if the PDEW is sufficient. My tongue-in-cheek response was intended to show that there are customers that value nonstops and will pay a premium for them.

Sure, for those customers that value nonstops, then they can fly private. But the PDEW isn't enough to warrant the economic viability of such a route. That's simply it.

No offense, but if this is your manner of assessment, then you really don't have much room to be chastising anyone else about lack of comprehension for airline economics. IJS.

I have the 2019 IATA data compiled by DemandARC, and as of immediately prior to the pandemic, MCO had 132 PDEW to Tokyo, making it second after LAS at 192, and distantly ahead of PHX (51) for unserved markets in the USA. For comparison, MIA was at 32, tied with SLC and BNA, and only 2PDEW ahead of AUS and IND.

132 doesn't sound like much, but it's actually about where SAN was when it got its TYO flight, and ahead of LAS when it got its ICN. Why? Because market stimulation will easily triple that number or more, as per common trend. What matters is, as was already explained to you, the number of pax willing to pay a premium for the nonstop, vis-a-vis the opportunity cost for use of the aircraft; the latter being a greater impediment for Florida's location, as even a single aircraft would be unable to reliably operate a 24hr turnaround.

N1120A wrote:

seat1a wrote:

Wondering two things: (1) Can the 787 or 350 do Tokyo-Miami nonstop? The distance is about 7,400 miles, less than ORD-AUK which is about 8,200 miles, so appears doable. Next obvious question is (2) is there market here for Japan Airlines, ANA or American on a daily basis or slightly-less daily basis?

Thank you!

ORD-AUK is 2876nm, so the range is there. Departing a 787 or 350 off a 4000' by 75' runway might be a bit tough

Oh jees, forgive me for that error on my part. AKL!!! AUK is some small public airport. Yikes.

x1234 wrote:

Yeah I forgot, TK now flies to MEX, CUN, PTY, BOG, HAV, CCS, GRU and EZE in Latin America.

CUN is both a tech stop and a destination, so they split the loads there. Seems to do well for them though.