aruba
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:18 am

Is there ever going to be a non stop flight from New York to Sydney? Could any aircraft even do that? Airbus 340-500?
If it could do that, why not have a non stop.
Will O.
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LockstockNL777
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:21 am

A related but off topic follow up question Big grin : Is there (free) software available to calculate route distances?
 
sq452
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:28 am

Quoting LockstockNL777 (Reply 1):
A related but off topic follow up question Big grin : Is there (free) software available to calculate route distances?

Yup, great circle mapper: http://gc.kls2.com/

My guess is you will see it someday, once range is improved on some of the new next generation airliners. just thinking off hand, 787 can't do this route at present range levels correct? (I'd go look it up but I gotta run):

http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gcmap?PATH=JFK-SYD

Distance is only 9,950 miles (8646 nautical miles)

[Edited 2008-04-03 03:29:57]
SIN > CVG > BOS
 
wumzi
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:41 am

There was a thread not too long ago about Delta wanting extra range from the 777 so that they could service this type of route. I dug it up for ya,

https://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...chid=3899722&s=delta+777#ID3899722
 
LockstockNL777
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:55 am



Quoting SQ452 (Reply 2):
Yup, great circle mapper: http://gc.kls2.com/

Aaww great thanks!!

Quoting SQ452 (Reply 2):
http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gcmap?PATH=JFK-SYD

Distance is only 9,950 miles (8646 nautical miles)

I guess some ETOPS restrictions will apply here  Wink
 
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pylon101
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 12:18 pm

Aircraft are built without AU and NZ in mind.
After all the region is not that populated.
Population of AU is less than 20 million.

If it were a kind of super national goal to reach NY without a stop Qantas could order an aircraft with additional tanks, I guess - and DO IT.

But I wouldn't like to travel like a day long in Y class - whatever good it is Smile
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Gemuser
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 12:47 pm



Quoting Pylon101 (Reply 5):
If it were a kind of super national goal to reach NY without a stop Qantas could order an aircraft with additional tanks, I guess - and DO IT.

Not and carrry enough payload to make money they couldn't!

Gemuser
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Stitch
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 12:57 pm

A number of widebody planes can fly between JFK and SYD. The problem is that they have to leave all (or almost all) of the passengers and cargo behind because they need to both load the tanks and lower the TOW to allow that fuel to take them the distance.

The 777-200LR would pretty much be the only plane that can fly the mission with a "usable" payload. Based on a 10,000nm flight (Great Circle shows 9950 at ETOPS-180), that would limit the 77L to about 35 tons of payload - about half of her 64t maximum payload. So you'd have to fly the plane in a low-density layout which will drive up your CASM and therefore require a high RASM to make economically justifiable and there just may not be enough demand.

The first plane likely to make true ULR ops economically sustainable over the long-term will be the 787-8LR - a 787-8 with a ~250t MTOW. It should be able to carry it's maximum structural payload out to ~10,000nm, though that payload will be smaller then a baseline 787-8 since the -LR will almost assuredly need to trade LD3 positions for auxiliary tanks since the plane is currently fuel-volume limited for such a flight.

[Edited 2008-04-03 06:03:40]
 
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sunrisevalley
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 12:59 pm



Quoting LockstockNL777 (Reply 4):
I guess some ETOPS restrictions will apply here Wink

http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gcmap?PATH=JFK-SYD

When you are in the screen of the above link, check mark ETOPS180 and the area outside this standard will be darkened.
In any event there are no ETOPs restrictions between city pairs in the USA and Eastern Australia. Furthermore ETOPS is essentially dead with the EROPS and EDTO standards being adopted which effectively treat twins and quads the same .
 
NAV20
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:04 pm



Quoting SQ452 (Reply 2):
Distance is only 9,950 miles (8646 nautical miles)

I like the 'only'  Smile - but it can be 'longer' than that because the winds over the Pacific are pretty fierce, particularly at certain times of year. I believe that, nevertheless, the 772LR could make the distance right now - but not with a full payload. Same problem that arose when Boeing had their 'near miss' trying to persuade Qantas to set up nonstop 772LR services to Heathrow from Sydney/Melbourne - nearly but not quite.

Quoting LockstockNL777 (Reply 4):
guess some ETOPS restrictions will apply here

No ETOPS problems as far as I know, Qantas are already planning to use the 787 to LA/San Francisco.

Quoting Pylon101 (Reply 5):
Population of AU is less than 20 million.


Australia is also the business hub of the South Pacific; and that role is mushrooming due to the resources boom. Plenty of business and tourist traffic Oz-USA year-round both ways - Heathrow and LAX are Qantas' busiest destinations. Filling flights direct to NYC would be no problem, especially 300-seaters.

Quoting Pylon101 (Reply 5):
But I wouldn't like to travel like a day long in Y class - whatever good it is

One has to put it in context - as it happens, my usual destination when visiting the USA is New York, the only current option is 14-plus hours to LAX, go through immigration and hang around there for a while, and then endure another four hours or so to Kennedy or Newark. Usually the best part of 24 hours 'gate to gate.' Conversely, non-stop would only be say 18 flying hours.

Qantas' CEO described Heathrow nonstop as Qantas' 'Holy Grail' - I reckon that NYC nonstop wouldn't be far behind. But someone has first to produce an aeroplane that will do both trips nonstop with a full load at any time of year. So far no-one's succeeded.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
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sunrisevalley
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 1:23 pm



Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 8):
Furthermore ETOPS is essentially dead with the EROPS and EDTO standards being adopted which effectively treat twins and quads the same .

For those interested in the Australian EDTO standard the following link allows you to peruse the various .pdf files covering the process of arriving at the standard. N.Z. is working on theirs, it will be in harmony with the Australian standard since there was a joint committee working on the task.

http://www.casa.gov.au/newrules/ops/edto/nfrm0608os.htm
 
YULYMX
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 2:38 pm

SYD-JFK could be done today with A345 and B772LR but no way JFK going west would work
 
B752OS
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 2:47 pm



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 9):
One has to put it in context - as it happens, my usual destination when visiting the USA is New York, the only current option is 14-plus hours to LAX, go through immigration and hang around there for a while, and then endure another four hours or so to Kennedy or Newark. Usually the best part of 24 hours 'gate to gate.' Conversely, non-stop would only be say 18 flying hours.

Qantas' CEO described Heathrow nonstop as Qantas' 'Holy Grail' - I reckon that NYC nonstop wouldn't be far behind. But someone has first to produce an aeroplane that will do both trips nonstop with a full load at any time of year. So far no-one's succeeded.

Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't SYD-JFK pass SIN-EWR for the longest non-stop in the world? Wouldn't the flying time on SYD-JFK be somewhere around 18.5-19 hours? I am guessing the flight time on SYD-LHR, longer than SYD-JFK in distance would be over 20 hours. This is just me, but I don't see the appeal of sitting on a plane for 20-21 hours regardless of what class. That cnnot be healthy for pax of crew to be couped up for the long.
 
NAV20
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 3:13 pm



Quoting B752OS (Reply 12):
Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't SYD-JFK pass SIN-EWR for the longest non-stop in the world? Wouldn't the flying time on SYD-JFK be somewhere around 18.5-19 hours? I am guessing the flight time on SYD-LHR, longer than SYD-JFK in distance would be over 20 hours.

I don't know for certain, B752OS, but my guess is that, flying direct MEL/SYD-JFK, they could pretty well follow the Great Circle route all the way (except maybe for a slight detour to go over San Diego instead of getting into Mexican airspace, which I understand is expensive). Going via LAX you couldn't follow the most direct route, LAX is way north of that - and even then you'd waste the best part of two hours letting down, lining up, landing, taxiing in, disembarking, re-embarking, taking off, climbing to height, letting down, lining up.......and so on and so on......

Probably the same sort of thing SYD/LHR. As far as I know the Great Circle route in that case doesn't go anywhere near the current 'traditional' stop (Singapore) - it winds way to the north over China and Sinkiang.

So nonstop carries the advantage that they could use the shortest routes. Anyway, as I say, I don't know for certain - I'll do a bit of research.  Smile
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OldAeroGuy
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 3:22 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
Based on a 10,000nm flight (Great Circle shows 9950 at ETOPS-180), that would limit the 77L to about 35 tons of payload - about half of her 64t maximum payload. So you'd have to fly the plane in a low-density layout which will drive up your CASM and therefore require a high RASM to make economically justifiable and there just may not be enough demand.

A 35t payload is more than enough to carry full pax (and a little cargo) on this route with standard 772LR airline seating arrangements (270 to 280 pax). There would be no need for a low density layout.

Boeing would need to provide more fuel volume than the current 3 aux. tanks though.

The biggest draw back for the route, at least according to the Aussies in the prior thread, would be lack of demand.

I'm not sure if the demand from the US side is being considered though.

https://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...chid=3899722&s=delta+777#ID3899722
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AFKLMLHLX
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JFK - SYD... Ever? possible?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 5:56 pm

Isn't this supposed to be in the Civ forum? 100 years ago nobody could even go up in a plane so it seems like it is inevitable that the JFK-SYD route will be flown. You can basically go anywhere assuming you can cross over some pole so the next step is creating a range that can be flown over the fattest/widest part of the Earth. Also, the route probably wouldn't be that out of range if they went over the North Pole as it is probably only 6 hours or so further than HKG. Also, HKG-SYD is like 8 hours but it is probably more like four hours longer as HKG is a little out of the way from SYD on a polar routing from JFK.
 
mirrodie
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RE: JFK - SYD... Ever?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:10 pm



Quoting B752OS (Reply 12):
Wouldn't the flying time on SYD-JFK be somewhere around 18.5-19 hours?

That is my main question. Having done the route twice and enjoyed the stopovers, not sure 19 hours straight is gonna be great. But then again, how long is SIN-EWR? 14 hours? Whats anohter 4-5?  Wink

Quoting AFKLMLHLX (Reply 15):
Isn't this supposed to be in the Civ forum?

No. Good question though. This topic is about a/c and the limitations of doing the route. Definitely a technical, operations type of question.
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LAXdude1023
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RE: JFK - SYD... Ever?

Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:40 pm

Its really not a question of if they could. There are planes that can make the distance. The question is can they do it and make it economically profitable. The answer is probably not. They would have to take a huge payload penalty and the flight would be super expensive to operate. Maybe when the 787 comes out it might work. But it will still be tough.
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grozzy
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RE: JFK - SYD... Ever?

Fri Apr 04, 2008 7:45 am

A slightly related question - is it possible for QF to do a A380 delivery to SYD nonstop? It'd be a good bit of publicity
 
Gemuser
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RE: JFK - SYD... Ever?

Fri Apr 04, 2008 12:18 pm



Quoting Grozzy (Reply 18):
A slightly related question - is it possible for QF to do a A380 delivery to SYD nonstop? It'd be a good bit of publicity

Yes, a A380 with bugger-all payload will do in excess of 9500nm. TLS-SYD is 9290 nm GC. So east bound should not be a problem, but they couldn't return one to TLS for maintance/modification non stop.

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thegeek
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RE: JFK - SYD... Ever?

Sat Apr 05, 2008 10:08 am

When Geoff Dixon looked at this a couple of years ago, his comment was that it wouldn't be economic.

One factor in this is that QF don't operate the B777, so this would mean a special type for the SYD-JFK/LHR trips. Not to be encouraged.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: JFK - SYD... Ever?

Sat Apr 05, 2008 12:13 pm



Quoting Pylon101 (Reply 5):
Aircraft are built without AU and NZ in mind.
After all the region is not that populated.
Population of AU is less than 20 million.

You can't look just at raw numbers. "Only" 20 million, but in a relative sense they are very well off people with strong ties to another rich country, the UK. Meaning lots and lots of high value air travel. Also as NAV20 mentions, Australia is quite a business hub.

It's like comparing New York and Mexico City by raw numbers. Mexico City has roughly 2-3 times the population and yet it gets far less air traffic.

Quoting B752OS (Reply 12):
This is just me, but I don't see the appeal of sitting on a plane for 20-21 hours regardless of what class. That cnnot be healthy for pax of crew to be couped up for the long.

For every person who says that, there another one who will happily avoid the stops.

Having done a 17½ hour flight which with a delay prior to start became 18½ hours on the plane, I would happily do it again rather than stop on the way. Traveling with a toddler and a baby only increased this desire to avoid stops. The thought of stopping en route, then getting on another flight, is enough to give me the shivers.
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Zkpilot
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RE: JFK - SYD... Ever?

Sun Apr 06, 2008 5:08 am



Quoting Aruba (Thread starter):
Is there ever going to be a non stop flight from New York to Sydney? Could any aircraft even do that? Airbus 340-500?
If it could do that, why not have a non stop.

77L, and 78L (probably based on the -9). NZ is aparently considering AKL-JFK with its 787s in the future which is a little shorter (I'd say about 70mins flighttime shorter).
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zeke
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RE: JFK - SYD... Ever?

Sun Apr 06, 2008 6:10 am



Quoting Grozzy (Reply 18):
A slightly related question - is it possible for QF to do a A380 delivery to SYD nonstop? It'd be a good bit of publicity

Not a problem at all, they have flown A330s TLS-MEL on delivery flights non stop. They could do LHR-AKL, that would be more of an achievement.
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sovietjet
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RE: JFK - SYD... Ever?

Sun Apr 06, 2008 7:12 am



Quoting YULYMX (Reply 11):
SYD-JFK could be done today with A345 and B772LR but no way JFK going west would work

Why would going west not work?
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: JFK - SYD... Ever?

Sun Apr 06, 2008 12:20 pm



Quoting Sovietjet (Reply 24):

Quoting YULYMX (Reply 11):
SYD-JFK could be done today with A345 and B772LR but no way JFK going west would work

Why would going west not work?

Prevailing winds are working against you. That's why, for example, westbound LHR-JFK takes 45-60 minutes longer than eastbound JFK-LHR.
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