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acroairfun
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Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Wed Aug 27, 2008 4:21 pm

Hi!

I have a question: Why so many aircrafts crashes in August or July every year?
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BAE146QT
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:08 pm

Hmm.

Do you have statistics on this? Do they show a significant deviation for those months, or is your question based on perception?

Also: What constants are you applying to the statistics (if any)? Number of flights, flight miles, flight hours?

For example: Are there more flights in those months during the Northern Hemisphere's summer holiday season - July-August - which would skew the figures upward?
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soon7x7
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:10 pm



Quoting AcroAirFun (Thread starter):

Pilots on vacation...?
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:33 pm

Speak to some Brazialian crew.They feel its a bad month for aviation.

But to the rest its just a coincidence I guess.
regds
MEL
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soon7x7
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:09 pm

If your observations are true, the possible answer is that its not one answer...all joking aside...summer months are typically weather extreme months, high travel months, high vacation months, which will of course all put a strain on the entire system and equipment at every level...Civily, alot more planes flying, airshows ...etc....Maybe this all has collective influence...
 
Sasha
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:47 am

A Tu154 pilot in his book highlighted August as indeed a dangerous month for aviation (at least in Russia) when high volume of pax travel south to the sea shores and then fly back north. There's the weather extreme in the equation but above all he explained how crews are overworked, as airlines are operating inhumanly tight schedules and there's the lack of sleep with all the consequences and stress induced.  Sad
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ALexeu
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:55 am

My relative told me a rumour that whenever there is one aircrash, soon several more will follow. And it has proven correct in case of this month (Spanair, ItekAir, Ryanair incident, Sunair hijacking.
I hope it stops !

[Edited 2008-08-28 02:56:47]
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:08 am

Coincidence!

Quoting AlexEU (Reply 6):
My relative told me a rumour that whenever there is one aircrash, soon several more will follow. And it has proven correct in case of this month (Spanair, ItekAir, Ryanair incident, Sunair hijacking.
I hope it stops !

Also coincidence. Ask a statistics professor (heck, as his students). These kinds of streaks are not unexpected in series or random events. Not that air crashes are really random. And not there are really enough that happen for similar causes as to make terribly good statistics.

Quoting SashA (Reply 5):
A Tu154 pilot in his book highlighted August as indeed a dangerous month for aviation (at least in Russia) when high volume of pax travel south to the sea shores and then fly back north. There's the weather extreme in the equation but above all he explained how crews are overworked, as airlines are operating inhumanly tight schedules and there's the lack of sleep with all the consequences and stress induced.

Sounds like a plausible explanation, but I'd still like to see statistics.  Wink
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SlamClick
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:37 pm



Quoting AlexEU (Reply 6):
told me a rumour

That is what it is - a rumour. As in, unsubstantiated, as in not verified, as in perceived but not necessarily true. Not true - "plane crashes always come in threes"

I read many years ago that a multi-year study of police emergency calls and emergency room admissions showed that there was no correlation between full moon and crimes. "Everybody knew" that full moons made people a little crazy. The more rational would explain the higher number of crimes as just better light with a full moon - easier to be out doing mischief if you can see. Truth is, none of the above.

Pretty much the same with plane crashes. Summer months may see an increase in thunderstorm/microburst events, winter months will see icing or contaminated runway type of incidents but that is about it.

What does happen is this: A major accident will catch the attention of both the news media and the viewing public. Then when there is another crash somewhere in the world they will report on that too and everyone from journalists to joe lunchbox will be waiting for the third one. It will come along in a few weeks because plane crashes happen every few weeks - year in, year out. You can take any three and make a "cluster" of them if you wish but it is only when they have a common cause that they are related.

Not everyone will believe this. I'm still unable to convince my brother that the water doesn't actually "taste better" if you hold onto the tap. He believes that it does and will not be persuaded otherwise.
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BAE146QT
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:15 pm



Quoting SlamClick (Reply 8):
What does happen is this: A major accident will catch the attention of both the news media and the viewing public. Then when there is another crash somewhere in the world they will report on that too and everyone from journalists to joe lunchbox will be waiting for the third one. It will come along in a few weeks because plane crashes happen every few weeks - year in, year out. You can take any three and make a "cluster" of them if you wish but it is only when they have a common cause that they are related.

The human mind is notorious for inventing patterns. It wants to see them.

Here's anothoer factor; in the UK at least, our government goes into recess during the summer. No juicy political gossip, usually.

The press call this "silly season" because in order to fill up papers, they report on just about any damned thing they can. Plagues of moths. Underinflated car tyres. Plane crashes...

Quod, methinks, Erat Demonstratum.
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Starlionblue
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:36 pm



Quoting SlamClick (Reply 8):
Not everyone will believe this. I'm still unable to convince my brother that the water doesn't actually "taste better" if you hold onto the tap. He believes that it does and will not be persuaded otherwise.

Not to make fun of your brother but  rotfl  . How does he "explain" his theory?
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474218
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:50 am



Quoting AlexEU (Reply 6):
My relative told me a rumour that whenever there is one aircrash, soon several more will follow. And it has proven correct in case of this month (Spanair, ItekAir, Ryanair incident, Sunair hijacking.
I hope it stops !

It seems like after an accident, several more accidents or incidents follow soon after, the reason for this is that the news reports every incident no matter how small or insignificant!
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:24 am

When a serious Accident in Aviation occurs & gets media highlighted....The attention is so focussed on that topic that other smaller incidents get covered gtoo.
Remember Qantas news articles on every incident last few weeks.
regds
MEL
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SlamClick
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:53 pm



Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 10):
How does he "explain" his theory?

He never did but then he's the guy who wanted to be buried in the corner of the cemetary so that in case of an earthquake he could be the first one out! My explanation is: you are very hot, you come into the house for a glass of water, it also feels good to hold onto the cold faucet. More refreshing = "better" water.
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David L
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:03 pm



Quoting SlamClick (Reply 8):
What does happen is this: A major accident will catch the attention of both the news media and the viewing public. Then when there is another crash somewhere in the world they will report on that too and everyone from journalists to joe lunchbox will be waiting for the third one. It will come along in a few weeks because plane crashes happen every few weeks - year in, year out. You can take any three and make a "cluster" of them if you wish but it is only when they have a common cause that they are related.

Bingo. Minor incidents also get far more attention shortly after a major accident thus making things seem far worse than they actually are, only because most people are unaware that these minor incidents happen all the time and are no big deal.

Quoting BAe146QT (Reply 9):
Quod, methinks, Erat Demonstratum

"Which was the devil layer"? "Quod erat demonstrandum", perhaps.  duck 
 
atlturbine
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:48 pm

Perhaps it is purely statistical. Airlines have traditionally increased there schedules during the busy summer travel season. Delta Airlines 2 crashes @ DFW both occurred in August.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ents_involving_commercial_aircraft
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mirrodie
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Mon Sep 01, 2008 3:26 am

as asked already,is there a statistic that suggests this?

If not, perhaps this thread shouldn't even exist??
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atlturbine
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Mon Sep 01, 2008 6:42 pm

Pardon me but I am bored today (its a holiday in the U.S.) According to the list of accidents and incidents involving commercial aircraft on Wikipedia there have been 2972 fatalities from commercial accidents since 1970. (It does not list that total you have to do the math) Of those 520 were from JAL flight 123 on August 12th 1985. Still the worst single aircraft crash.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ents_involving_commercial_aircraft
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BAE146QT
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every

Mon Sep 01, 2008 6:57 pm



Quote:
"Which was the devil layer"? "Quod erat demonstrandum", perhaps.

Oh, lordy. You're right of course. I don't know what I was thinking.  Wink
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FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: Why So Many Aircrafts Crashes In August Every Year

Tue Sep 02, 2008 9:34 am



Quoting AlexEU (Reply 6):

you know what they say; bad things happen in threes.

Quoting Atlturbine (Reply 15):
Perhaps it is purely statistical. Airlines have traditionally increased there schedules during the busy summer travel season. Delta Airlines 2 crashes @ DFW both occurred in August.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...craft

I would say that I am a rather superstitious person I guess. American's flight 191 was also headed for LA...
What gets measured gets done.

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