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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:40 am

aerokiwi wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-queensland-refuse-to-join-transtasman-travel-bubble/6UUSY4FB57T4SI5Y2UQE7OXTBQ/

Australia has moved on. I said this a few weeks ago, they've now opened to domestic markets and very close to some Asia bubbles.

I think we can rule this out until vaccine plays a part in the 2nd quarter of calendar year 2021.


Huh? The Queensland premier has something like zero say on international borders and she is no friend to the federal government. I'm not even sure she's allowed to impose restrictions on flights arriving into Brisbane or Coolangatta, though perhaps there is some scope there.

Regardless, she's also just announced the opening of her own little kingdom to Victoria and NSW, meaning that the existing one way bubble allowing Kiwis into Australia quarantine free now envelops Queensland, or will do from 1 December. Even if she resists QLD airports opening up somehow, Kiwis will be well within their rights to transfer via MEL or SYD.

As per with that particular premier, it's inconsistent and lacks a sturdy logic. But it wouldn't surprise me if New Zealand does resist a border until a vaccine, given the government's ineptitude and painfully slow "effort" to date. I mean, aside from an occasional response to a media enquiry, are they even trying?

Qantas has exerted considerable pressure here to do away with internal borders quickly when it's safe by most reasonable measures. I wonder if Air NZ is going the same or if, as majority government owned and beholden to them for cash, they're keeping mum. Probably. Wonderful.


I'll think you'll find she can lock out Kiwis, I mean she locked out the rest of Australia so I can't see why she couldn't lock out foreign nationals. She may not be locking them out of "Australia" per say as that'll be a federal level decision, but she could prevent them entering Queensland as she has previously done.

It would be as simple as; if you've not been in NSW, ACT, NT, SA, WA for the last 14 days you cannot enter QLD. So if Kiwis want to go to NSW visit family for a fortnight then head on up, the welcome mat will be rolled out. That'll be the equivalent of self isolation.

Enforcing it on the ground could be a challenge, I mean is she going to continue with secure land borders just for some stray Kiwis? Or will it be deterred by hefty fines, arrest and no air links.

That aside, I didn't put much logical thought into it. The point of my post was highlighting what appears to be a changing view in Australia, by some parties at least. It wasn't too long ago Australia were crying out for Kiwi visitors now, well. I think it's clear to some we're not that serious or we're too scared so they're better off using their own home market and explore some safe places in Asia.

NZ I know are in a "Be ready" state but are predicting a 2nd quarter 2021 for any services at best.
 
GW54
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sat Nov 28, 2020 2:41 am

I see B777-319 ZK-OKM has recently ferried to Victorville to join others from the fleet in storage. I did read somewhere that originally OKM,N and O were the three that were to remain in Auckland. Currently it seems OKN,OKO and OKQ (Painted in the Black livery) are the three in Auckland. Will they remain or has the strategy changed and they will also depart for storage in the not to distant future?
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:50 am

NZ6 wrote:
aerokiwi wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-queensland-refuse-to-join-transtasman-travel-bubble/6UUSY4FB57T4SI5Y2UQE7OXTBQ/

Australia has moved on. I said this a few weeks ago, they've now opened to domestic markets and very close to some Asia bubbles.

I think we can rule this out until vaccine plays a part in the 2nd quarter of calendar year 2021.


Huh? The Queensland premier has something like zero say on international borders and she is no friend to the federal government. I'm not even sure she's allowed to impose restrictions on flights arriving into Brisbane or Coolangatta, though perhaps there is some scope there.

Regardless, she's also just announced the opening of her own little kingdom to Victoria and NSW, meaning that the existing one way bubble allowing Kiwis into Australia quarantine free now envelops Queensland, or will do from 1 December. Even if she resists QLD airports opening up somehow, Kiwis will be well within their rights to transfer via MEL or SYD.

As per with that particular premier, it's inconsistent and lacks a sturdy logic. But it wouldn't surprise me if New Zealand does resist a border until a vaccine, given the government's ineptitude and painfully slow "effort" to date. I mean, aside from an occasional response to a media enquiry, are they even trying?

Qantas has exerted considerable pressure here to do away with internal borders quickly when it's safe by most reasonable measures. I wonder if Air NZ is going the same or if, as majority government owned and beholden to them for cash, they're keeping mum. Probably. Wonderful.


I'll think you'll find she can lock out Kiwis, I mean she locked out the rest of Australia so I can't see why she couldn't lock out foreign nationals. She may not be locking them out of "Australia" per say as that'll be a federal level decision, but she could prevent them entering Queensland as she has previously done.

It would be as simple as; if you've not been in NSW, ACT, NT, SA, WA for the last 14 days you cannot enter QLD. So if Kiwis want to go to NSW visit family for a fortnight then head on up, the welcome mat will be rolled out. That'll be the equivalent of self isolation.


Qld was only locked to Greater Sydney, Greater Adelaide and Victoria until the recent announcement.

All other states has been open to/from Queensland for months now.
 
PA515
Posts: 1649
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sat Nov 28, 2020 3:53 pm

GW54 wrote:
I see B777-319 ZK-OKM has recently ferried to Victorville to join others from the fleet in storage. I did read somewhere that originally OKM,N and O were the three that were to remain in Auckland. Currently it seems OKN,OKO and OKQ (Painted in the Black livery) are the three in Auckland. Will they remain or has the strategy changed and they will also depart for storage in the not to distant future?


I was surprised when I saw OKM was going to LAX as NZ6012. I was expecting OKQ to be next when it's horizontal stabilizer was repaired. A few months ago Greg Foran was quoted as saying three of the 300ERs would be remaining in AKL as they were due for undercarriage replacement. OKN has not flown since 01 Jul, OKO since 22 Aug, and OKQ since 30 Jun. The 300ERs were being used for cargo flights, but the 789s are doing this now.

PA515
 
NZ6
Posts: 1803
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:02 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
aerokiwi wrote:

Huh? The Queensland premier has something like zero say on international borders and she is no friend to the federal government. I'm not even sure she's allowed to impose restrictions on flights arriving into Brisbane or Coolangatta, though perhaps there is some scope there.

Regardless, she's also just announced the opening of her own little kingdom to Victoria and NSW, meaning that the existing one way bubble allowing Kiwis into Australia quarantine free now envelops Queensland, or will do from 1 December. Even if she resists QLD airports opening up somehow, Kiwis will be well within their rights to transfer via MEL or SYD.

As per with that particular premier, it's inconsistent and lacks a sturdy logic. But it wouldn't surprise me if New Zealand does resist a border until a vaccine, given the government's ineptitude and painfully slow "effort" to date. I mean, aside from an occasional response to a media enquiry, are they even trying?

Qantas has exerted considerable pressure here to do away with internal borders quickly when it's safe by most reasonable measures. I wonder if Air NZ is going the same or if, as majority government owned and beholden to them for cash, they're keeping mum. Probably. Wonderful.


I'll think you'll find she can lock out Kiwis, I mean she locked out the rest of Australia so I can't see why she couldn't lock out foreign nationals. She may not be locking them out of "Australia" per say as that'll be a federal level decision, but she could prevent them entering Queensland as she has previously done.

It would be as simple as; if you've not been in NSW, ACT, NT, SA, WA for the last 14 days you cannot enter QLD. So if Kiwis want to go to NSW visit family for a fortnight then head on up, the welcome mat will be rolled out. That'll be the equivalent of self isolation.


Qld was only locked to Greater Sydney, Greater Adelaide and Victoria until the recent announcement.

All other states has been open to/from Queensland for months now.


That's not really what I'm highlighting, however for the record it has been done previously in the pandemic which is all I was referring too, oh and that it's actually possible.

So if QLD can close to other states (all or selected) who are citizens of the country, I'm not seeing any reason why they couldn't close for foreign nationals.

Costs and logistics around enforcing it would be impractical in my own opinion.

But the original point I made was around the changing stance of Kiwis and the "Bubble" in Australia. Should Australia open some Asia safe zones, we'll be even more hesitant to form a bubble.

Personally, I gave up on the Bubble idea a month or two ago. It won't happen. We can't even do it with the Islands.

We'll only see it once we're at a set point in any vaccine rollout. At this point the government will likely make lots of noise and commentary around the bubble and getting tourism moving. It'll be made out that they delivered on the bubble.

Optimistic timeline, April. Pessimistic timeline, Aug-Sep.

Likely somewhere in the middle but forever hopeful.

PS: I'm actually a supporter of this government. I just believe we've not done enough in this space. Tourism has been hit in excess of $1 Billion per month. So when someone suggests, it's not as bad as people make out. Well, it's hard to argue with facts like this.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7804
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:48 pm

PA515 wrote:
GW54 wrote:
I see B777-319 ZK-OKM has recently ferried to Victorville to join others from the fleet in storage. I did read somewhere that originally OKM,N and O were the three that were to remain in Auckland. Currently it seems OKN,OKO and OKQ (Painted in the Black livery) are the three in Auckland. Will they remain or has the strategy changed and they will also depart for storage in the not to distant future?


I was surprised when I saw OKM was going to LAX as NZ6012. I was expecting OKQ to be next when it's horizontal stabilizer was repaired. A few months ago Greg Foran was quoted as saying three of the 300ERs would be remaining in AKL as they were due for undercarriage replacement. OKN has not flown since 01 Jul, OKO since 22 Aug, and OKQ since 30 Jun. The 300ERs were being used for cargo flights, but the 789s are doing this now.

PA515


While I can’t say with any certainty, I can’t see the 77W flying again.
 
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VCVSpotter
Posts: 1757
Joined: Mon May 04, 2020 6:10 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:39 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
PA515 wrote:
GW54 wrote:
I see B777-319 ZK-OKM has recently ferried to Victorville to join others from the fleet in storage. I did read somewhere that originally OKM,N and O were the three that were to remain in Auckland. Currently it seems OKN,OKO and OKQ (Painted in the Black livery) are the three in Auckland. Will they remain or has the strategy changed and they will also depart for storage in the not to distant future?


I was surprised when I saw OKM was going to LAX as NZ6012. I was expecting OKQ to be next when it's horizontal stabilizer was repaired. A few months ago Greg Foran was quoted as saying three of the 300ERs would be remaining in AKL as they were due for undercarriage replacement. OKN has not flown since 01 Jul, OKO since 22 Aug, and OKQ since 30 Jun. The 300ERs were being used for cargo flights, but the 789s are doing this now.

PA515


While I can’t say with any certainty, I can’t see the 77W flying again.


I (personally) think that any of the leased ones have pretty much no chance of returning, MAYBE the ones that are out-right owned could return, but I doubt it.

They’ve got the 789s, and with the reduced demand for travel, I doubt that they’ll really need to return. Just my 2 cents.
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zkncj
Posts: 4166
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 29, 2020 1:50 am

VCVSpotter wrote:
While I can’t say with any certainty, I can’t see the 77W flying again.


There is more chance of the owned 77W’s returning as 77W-BCF’s, than passenger aircraft.

The 789 (and on order 781) are more than enough to cover demand in the next 5-10 years on the passenger front.

Would expect airfreight demand to be high for the next 5 or more year, as passenger flights slowly rebuilt.

NZ is sending 2x 789s most days just on freight runs.
 
DavidByrne
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Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:54 am

With 787-10s on order, and a vastly under-utilised 789 fleet for the foreseeable future, I find it almost impossible to believe that the 77Ws will ever see service again with NZ. I’m not even convinced they will need all the 789s for some years.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ321
Posts: 1380
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Sun Nov 29, 2020 3:51 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
With 787-10s on order, and a vastly under-utilised 789 fleet for the foreseeable future, I find it almost impossible to believe that the 77Ws will ever see service again with NZ. I’m not even convinced they will need all the 789s for some years.


Roughly what is the hit from not returning these aircraft to service - they would have to sell the owned 77W aircraft that need to be disposed of - and what would it cost them to exit the existing leases? Are we able to quantify this? Seems like a hell of a waste.

787-10 order - is it confirmed and on track or deferred? There has been little news of this order since it was first announced with much fanfare and hints of a performance improvement package for the 787-9 and 10 to slightly improve the range / payload capability of both frames. I am wondering if the 787-9 improvements constitute the software changes which UA are rolling out on their latest 787-9 aircraft that will be performing some particularly challenging missions - such as SFO-BLR.
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ZK-NBT
Posts: 7804
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:43 am

NZ321 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
With 787-10s on order, and a vastly under-utilised 789 fleet for the foreseeable future, I find it almost impossible to believe that the 77Ws will ever see service again with NZ. I’m not even convinced they will need all the 789s for some years.


Roughly what is the hit from not returning these aircraft to service - they would have to sell the owned 77W aircraft that need to be disposed of - and what would it cost them to exit the existing leases? Are we able to quantify this? Seems like a hell of a waste.

787-10 order - is it confirmed and on track or deferred? There has been little news of this order since it was first announced with much fanfare and hints of a performance improvement package for the 787-9 and 10 to slightly improve the range / payload capability of both frames. I am wondering if the 787-9 improvements constitute the software changes which UA are rolling out on their latest 787-9 aircraft that will be performing some particularly challenging missions - such as SFO-BLR.


While it is a waste what else are they meant to do? Other than wait how many years for things to return to 'normal', they could probably hold on to the owned frames until someone wants to buy them for Freighter conversion.

Pretty sure the 781 is deferred or will be, the aircraft aren't at the production stage yet.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:58 am

NZ321 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
With 787-10s on order, and a vastly under-utilised 789 fleet for the foreseeable future, I find it almost impossible to believe that the 77Ws will ever see service again with NZ. I’m not even convinced they will need all the 789s for some years.


Roughly what is the hit from not returning these aircraft to service - they would have to sell the owned 77W aircraft that need to be disposed of - and what would it cost them to exit the existing leases? Are we able to quantify this? Seems like a hell of a waste.

787-10 order - is it confirmed and on track or deferred? There has been little news of this order since it was first announced with much fanfare and hints of a performance improvement package for the 787-9 and 10 to slightly improve the range / payload capability of both frames. I am wondering if the 787-9 improvements constitute the software changes which UA are rolling out on their latest 787-9 aircraft that will be performing some particularly challenging missions - such as SFO-BLR.

7810 has been deferred by 3 years I believe.
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deconz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:24 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Qld was only locked to Greater Sydney, Greater Adelaide and Victoria until the recent announcement.

All other states has been open to/from Queensland for months now.


I really wish you would do some basic research. I am a Kiwi living in Brisbane and this is totally false! QLD only opened to regional NSW (all but greater SYD) on 03/11/20 ...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-30/ ... e/12802652

So much for "for months now"

And all of VIC opens for the first time "in months" tomorrow, along with greater SYD
 
Mr AirNZ
Posts: 922
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2002 10:24 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Mon Nov 30, 2020 7:02 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
With 787-10s on order, and a vastly under-utilised 789 fleet for the foreseeable future, I find it almost impossible to believe that the 77Ws will ever see service again with NZ. I’m not even convinced they will need all the 789s for some years.


Roughly what is the hit from not returning these aircraft to service - they would have to sell the owned 77W aircraft that need to be disposed of - and what would it cost them to exit the existing leases? Are we able to quantify this? Seems like a hell of a waste.

787-10 order - is it confirmed and on track or deferred? There has been little news of this order since it was first announced with much fanfare and hints of a performance improvement package for the 787-9 and 10 to slightly improve the range / payload capability of both frames. I am wondering if the 787-9 improvements constitute the software changes which UA are rolling out on their latest 787-9 aircraft that will be performing some particularly challenging missions - such as SFO-BLR.

7810 has been deferred by 3 years I believe.

That is incorrect.

If you reference both the FY19 and FY20 annual results, you'll see no deferrals have occurred for 787 frames (they have for other machines).

The next 787 (already reflected in the Boeing order books as being changed to a 787-9), is on order for FY23 which is the second half of calendar year 2022.

This topic was discussed at the annual results. Depending on the recovery in various markets, the 787 orders can be used to supplement exisiting frames (the current 787 and 77W fleet) or, if International recovery is slower, effectively replace the 77W (if that better fits with the demand profile across the network). Jeff McDowall stressed flexibility was key as no one yet knows what things in the future will look like.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:29 am

Mr AirNZ wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NZ321 wrote:

If you reference both the FY19 and FY20 annual results, you'll see no deferrals have occurred for 787 frames (they have for other machines).

The next 787 (already reflected in the Boeing order books as being changed to a 787-9), is on order for FY23 which is the second half of calendar year 2022.

This topic was discussed at the annual results. Depending on the recovery in various markets, the 787 orders can be used to supplement exisiting frames (the current 787 and 77W fleet) or, if International recovery is slower, effectively replace the 77W (if that better fits with the demand profile across the network). Jeff McDowall stressed flexibility was key as no one yet knows what things in the future will look like.


So this next 787 and subsequent is with the GEnx-1B correct?
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - November 2020

Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:20 am

Christmas 2020 edition is here viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1454765
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