IF anything be worried about the new "Broken Arrow" ballots that that same twirp who approved the "Butterfly ballots' has just approved for Palm Beach.

BTW: She was elected to her job as elections supervisor, and is a registered democrat so don't blame Jeb for her idiocy

California isn't a toss-up in any respectable poll. That's just GOP wishful thinking, if ever I heard it.

As for the question. To be honest, I don't have a clue.   It's going to come down to two states-Florida and Ohio. If Bush wins both, he wins another close election. If Kerry wins both, he will win the election. I don't think either candidate wins if they only take one of the two.

I think Bush gets a decent bounce from the RNC, but I think it settles by the end of September, and we're right back where we've been for months-dead even.

It will come down to the final week, and how a handful of independents vote. I think it plays out a lot like '92. Let me explain.

About 3 weeks out, Clinton held a good 8 or 9 point lead over George H.W. Bush. But then Newsweek, TIME, USAToday, started to do "How Will 'President Clinton' govern?" type stuff. And, 10 days out, some of those undecideds started to get sqishy on Clinton, and the race got very, very tight. Then, in the last 3 or 4 days, many of those that had wavered looked over and were reading articles about "4 more years of Bush", and, for most of them, doubts about 4 more years under GHWB outweighed any misgivings about Governor Clinton.

It's going to be the same thing, but with a narrower margin of error. It's going to depend on what a small percentage of indpendent voters do: do they get hairs standing on the back of their neck when they see "President Kerry" spelled out, or when they read "4 more years" spelled out.

About 93% of us have made up our minds, I think. That 7 percent, who won't make up their mind till the last week-or till they walk into that voting booth, will make the difference. And, frankly, I don't think anyone will know till that night.

IF anything be worried about the new "Broken Arrow" ballots

WHAT???? If the morons in Florida can't figure out that type of ballot, then Florida needs to be kicked out of the USA. That is the EASIEST form of balloting...how hard is it to fill in the arrow, for god's sake? We have that here in WA, and it's a 'no brainer'.

CNN: Bush holds slight lead in Electoral College

NEW YORK (CNN) -- President Bush heads into the Republican National Convention next week with a small lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the all-important Electoral College, according to a new CNN analysis of state polling, advertising buys and interviews with campaign strategists and neutral analysts.

Bush would receive 274 electoral votes to Kerry's 264 if the election were held today, less than 10 weeks before November 2 and three days before the opening of the GOP convention in Madison Square Garden. If Kerry were to pick up a state as small as Nevada, the electoral vote would be tied, throwing the election into the House of Representatives.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/27/bush.electoral/index.html

Kaz can't be president..... she wasnt born here....didnt you guys learn anything from those stupid president of beers ads and the budweiser frogs rebuttals? Come on people....... I vote Herman Munster

didnt you guys learn anything from those stupid president of beers ads and the budweiser frogs rebuttals?

Nope...I was one of the few people was awake in US History/Civics, and learned it there.

One question I do have, related to this:
- Can someone foriegn-born be elected a US Senator or Governor of a state?
If so, Kaz for Governor of Washington State!!!!  

Kaz can't be president..... she wasnt born here....didnt you guys learn anything from those stupid president of beers ads and the budweiser frogs rebuttals?

Those kind of rules were just made to be broken, you know.  

One question I do have, related to this:
- Can someone foriegn-born be elected a US Senator or Governor of a state?


Arnold. Enough said.

Umm, Steven...

Where was Conan, governer of KALIFORNIA born?

Kratz Austria, if memory serves and George Bulter wasn't lying in the movie, "Pumping Iron"

The end of a long, tough week....my brain stopped thinking evidently. Now that I think about it more, Gov. Jennifer Granholm, D-MI, was born in Canada.

Thanks, L-188.

Anyone know of a foreign-born US Senator?

Despite his many failings, Bush will eke out a slim victory because Kerry has failed to inspire as a candidate and really attack Bush where he's vulnerable. Kerry's seemingly shaky convictions on too many issues have cast serious doubt on his leadership abilities. The Vietnam service questions alone cast serious doubt on his honesty and were I not SO convinced Bush is leading us in the wrong direction, I'd never support Kerry. For me, he's simply a mediocre apple as opposed to a bad one. We don't even know at this point, exactly what he intends to do, if elected. But I'll still vote for him because at least he hasn't trashed a bunch of civil liberties and environmental laws, not to mention getting us into a war of dubious merit, even though he, yes, voted for the war, along with the rest of the duped Congress.

L-188: Where was Conan, governer of KALIFORNIA born?
Kratz Austria, if memory serves and George Bulter wasn't lying in the movie, "Pumping Iron"

Correct, but the governator´s home town is spelled Graz.  

Thanks for the correction.

But I will own up to getting the wrong town.

Nosedive: Come on people....... I vote Herman Munster

Wasn´t he also born ... um ... assembled in "the old country"...? 

Without going into specifics I'll just go out on a limb and predict that Bush will win both popular and electoral.

Relative to voting machines and such, PPGMD mentioned "electronic voting that produces some sort of a receipt" to negate fraud. In Michigan (and every other state I've visited that has a lottery), the bettor has a slip he/she has filled out, it's inserted into the machine which gives you your picked numbers, date, time down to the exact second, a confirmation number, bar code and a host of other information, including the vendor where you purchased your ticket at (this takes but a few seconds time). Many tickets contain up to five wagers of seven numbers each, including the option of letting the master computer randomly pick your numbers for you. If you are too lazy to check your numbers against the winning digits, a clerk will slide your ticket back into the machine, give your ticket back to you along with another ticket with confirmation that you are or are not a winner. Why bore you with all this? Well, if the states can do this flawlessly tens of millions of times per day, surely someone can devise an electronic voting machine that will WORK. No? Regards..Jack

Addendum to my previous post (reply 63):

Perhaps I have, in fact, missed the point that although people rarely complain about how to figure out their lottery ticket, there will always be those that complain about how to figure out how to vote. Regards...Jack

Ok, I think I figured this out!

On the overall map, I've moved Colorado, Missouri, West Virgina and Florida to the Bush column, but all as tossups. I have not moved anyone from Bush to Kerry, although a lot of Bush states continue to be tossups.



Under this scenario, Kerry gets 284 Electoral votes, and Bush 254

When you look at my "confidence map", you can see why I feel, short of some dramatic even or faux pas from one of the two men, this race will go down to the final days.



With the confidence map, the Dems have 206 Electors, the GOP 181, and 151 are tossups.

[Edited 2004-08-28 16:25:27]

Kaz can't be president..... she wasnt born here

Oh anyone can be president! We've resolved to make Kaz Grand Empress of the World. She's guaranteeing us free drink and chocolate!

Jasepl,

not forgetting free kilts for the scots  

Ah yes, Kaz. Forgot about that... Kilts for the Scots! And the non-Scots too - mustn't forget Superfly!

Cheers!

Jason

And Jasepl, even supplying underwear on request  

Oh, my God. You guys are taking this thread into uncharted territory.

Young lady (and I say that with much respect), you're getting the young males on here VERY, uh, high in altitude. Ahem.  

Alpha,

KANSAS A TOSSUP?!!?!?!? KANSAS?! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! You know, I think Massachusetts just might go Bush this year! It's gonna be close!

L.1011, you're going to laugh at ANYONE, when you call California a TOSSUP? You're smoking something very serious. And that map of yours, what a fantasy. So you can laugh all you want, but you don't have a freaking clue. That doesn't mean I don't think Bush might not win, but he won't win in a landslide like you think. The nation is just too damned divided for that to happen.

You really need to start growing up a bit.

Jesus...we should really be embarrassed to have such poor choices as President...I mean, I think George Bush has done an overall DREADFUL job, but John Kerry is also an ABYSMAL Democratic candidate...to be honest with you, if Ralph Nader is floating around the 5% popular vote mark required to reach government funding for the Green Party, I may well vote for him, in the hopes that he gets that 5%...as far as who wins the election, I live in an area that is largely pro-Democrat, and if you did a non-scientific poll of people living in my Congressional District (for example) you'd probably think that Ralph Nader had a better chance at being President than George Bush did at getting reelected...

It will be close whoever wins, that's all I can predict. If Bush wins, he'll have received the most love and hate combined of any president in history when all is said and done. If Kerry wins, I hate to say this but I don't think he'll be remembered for anything spectacular, just another president who skated through four or eight years until the next batch of candidates came up.


Disclaimer, didn't say Kerry will destroy the nation, just said he won't be known for anything spectacular unless there's another terrorist attack or botched one.

If Kerry wins, I hate to say this but I don't think he'll be remembered for anything spectacular

If you look through history, MOST U.S. presidents aren't remember for anything spectacular, good or bad.

Alpha, why would Alaska vote for Bush...?

He wants to drill for oil under a wildlife refuge  

Oil would not be an issue if I were elected, I would make it so everything ran on vinegar.

Bush and Kerry, word of advice...

Alpha, I'm basing CA on an actual poll. Where, exactly, is your evidence that there is any chance in hell that Kansas will go Dem?


Kansas 2000


Kansas 1996


Kansas 1992


Kansas 1988


Kansas 1984


Kansas 1980


Kansas 1976 (still an 8 point Ford victory)


Kansas 1972

1964 would be the last election Kansas went Dem. Willing to bet against 40 years of history Alpha? California, by contrast, has only 3 elections of Dem voting, with 1964 being the last time before that it went Dem, and I have a poll backing me up. I don't believe it will go Republican, but it looks damn close.

If Kerry were to pick up a state as small as Nevada, the electoral vote would be tied, throwing the election into the House of Representatives.

I think Bush 269 - Kerry 269 is a real possibility. If you thought the last election was contentious, just wait until the House gets to decide it! The nightmare scenario:




Hopefully whoever wins will do so by a big enough margin to avoid another recount circus. Right now it's awfully close. It will be interesting to see what kind of bounce Bush gets from the RNC Convention.

--B2707SST

And Jasepl, even supplying underwear on request

How could I have forgotten! Of course, but on request only. Or maybe we can decide who gets it ans who doesn't?

Yes that is wise Jasepl, how about being my Minister of defense?  

Yes that is wise Jasepl, how about being my Minister of defense?

Why I'd be honoured Kaz! And it is a good move, considering the world's gonna need plenty of defending from threads containing the words Election, Political, Bush, Kerry, Israel, Iraq, Saddam, etc, etc... And an army to ensure Superfly keeps his kilt on!

Alpha, why would Alaska vote for Bush...?

Well, they're for that in Alaska, and I'm not against it either, as long as decent enviornmental safeguards are in place.

B2707SST, what you posted is damn interesting, that's for sure. But I just can't imagine a tie election with one of the competitors (Bush, in your scenario) winning Texas, Florida AND Ohio. That scenario is almost impossible, but God knows this year.

Another interesting site is the TradeSports.com political futures market. There's real money on the line here, so the participants should be using every scrap of public information to make their bets (the efficient market hypothesis at work):

http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?z=1093746764171&grpID=70

Note that the traders are currently pricing in a Bush electoral college victory but a Kerry popular vote victory. Lord, not again...

The Iowa Electronic Markets also trade political futures, but only on a national electoral college basis.

http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html

--B2707SST

Note that the traders are currently pricing in a Bush electoral college victory but a Kerry popular vote victory. Lord, not again...

Just think, George Bush, if that holds, will go down in history as the first U.S. president to not win the popular vote in Two elections. Not that it won't stop him from "governing" like he won a landslide.

One cannot win the popular vote by 5% and lose the electoral college. The only time one will see a loss in one and a win in the other is when the popular vote is within 1%-2%.

As for an electoral tie, it is possible but I doubt it. Due to changes following the 2000 Census, Bush states have more electoral votes than they did in 2000 while the states that Gore won have less. However, in the event of a 269-269 tie, President Bush will still win reelection. The House will pick the President but they vote by state delegation. So a person needs 26 votes to win the Presidency in the House. As of right now Republicans control far more than 26 state delegations and will add at least one more (Texas) in the new Congress which is who would decide the election. In the event of an electoral tie, the Senate would be responsible for picking the Vice-President.

Right now the polls a showing a trend toward President Bush. In the battleground states, he has pulled ahead of Kerry or Kerry's lead has shrunk or disappeared.

Florida- Two polls several weeks ago showed Kerry ahead (although one was the known liberal biased ARG poll) but 3 more recent ones have shown Bush ahead by up to 5% (I think one had Bush up by 8% but I can't find it right now to reference.)

Ohio- Same a Florida. Several polls showed Kerry ahead but recent ones including Gallup have given Bush a lead up to 5% which is what he won Ohio by in 2000

Michigan- Multiple polls earlier had Kerry up by up to 12% while several polls over the last week, including one by ARG, have shown Kerry up at most by 3% which is well within the margin of error.

Wisconsin and Iowa- Won by Gore in 2000 but recent polls have shown either a tie or Bush ahead by several points

Minnesota- Won by Gore in 2000 and Kerry had been well ahead until recent polls shown up by a few points or tied.

Pennsylvania- Kerry has also been leading in Penn. for months, sometimes by as much as 15%. However, recent polls have shown it closer including a Pew Poll (another usual left leaning pollster) that had Kerry only ahead by 1%. (Of course this doesn't include Democrat voter fraud like occurred in 2000 where some districts of Philadelphia had 125% voter turnout.)

Oregon- Kerry and Bush have moved back and forth over the last few months with neither candidate taking a continual lead. However, with a state constitutional amendment on the ballot that would prohibit homosexual marriage, a larger conservative turnout is anticipated which would favor the President.

Maine- Won by Gore in 2000 but recent polls have shown it close with Bush probably winning at least one of Maine's electoral votes. (Maine is one of two states that divides it electoral votes)

Colorado- One poll has shown it a tie but without more to confirm or refute it there is no way to tell if the poll is correct or an outlier.

Arkansas- A couple of polls shortly after the Democrat convention had it close or tied but Bush has lead here all year long and more recent polls have confirmed this.

Now why are the polls, both national and state, showing a movement away from Kerry and either into the undecided or for Bush category? Well, probably for two reasons. One would be the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth have shown people how sleazy Kerry is. Whether or not people think the SBVT for truth are being fronted by the Bush campaign, which of course they're not, their book "Unfit for Command" has been selling so fast that the publisher cannot keep up with the demand. This book was selling well before the SBVT ads ever ran and Kerry's implosion over the SBVT have just increased sales. The other reason is something that has been known for months now. Kerry is better off when he is promoted by his surrogates at the DNC, ACT, Moveon.org etc. Whenever he opens his mouth, he turns people off (except for the hardcore liberal base) as he doesn't appeal to the average American.

As I mentioned with Oregon, one issue that cannot be factored into the election polls are the states with constitutional amendments to ban homosexual marriage. Oregon is one while it should be on the ballot in Ohio and possibly Michigan but that is being stalled by Democrats on the state election board. A fairly good number of other states also have it on the ballot in November but they're states that are considered lockups by one candidate or the other. Just remember that every poll in Missouri said that their constitutional amendment banning homosexual marriage would get around 50% of the vote. It passed with over 70% of the vote. It is an issue which brings people to the polls; people which will mostly vote for President Bush come November.

My prediction at this time (just remember that anything can happen between now and November 2nd) is that George Bush will win the popular vote by at least 5% and the electoral college with around 315 EC votes.

Just think, George Bush, if that holds, will go down in history as the first U.S. president to not win the popular vote in Two elections.

The national popular vote means nothing, sorry. That's not the way our system works here. It does mean something at the state level, though...as that's what determines which set of electors cast their votes in the Electoral College in Congress.

Like Maine, the HUGE wildcard this year is Colorado...on Nov. 2nd, there is a measure there that would abolish the 'winner take all' system in that state...and guess what? If passed, that would take effect immediately, including THIS YEAR'S ELECTION...so, if it passes, Kerry wins Denver and in the end, forget Florida and Ohio...Colorado could make all the difference.

Oregon is huge also...they've been trending GOP in federal elections, and Gordon Smith (R-OR) easily won reelection due to his very moderate stance on issues. This state almost joined FL in a recount in 2000. As part of the Northwest block, totalling 18 electoral votes (11-WA, 7-OR) usually OR and WA vote together, last time they broke was 1972, when WA went for Humphrey and OR went for Nixon. Last time either state voted GOP for President was the Reagan landslide 20 years ago. GHWB lost twice in both states, and GWB lost in both in 2000. So, Dubya has his work cut out for him, but OR has a better chance of going GOP, especially with a homosexual marriage ban on the ballot.

Florida- Two polls several weeks ago showed Kerry ahead (although one was the known liberal biased ARG poll) but 3 more recent ones have shown Bush ahead by up to 5%

And are those appropriately RWAK-approved polls, B757300? I just saw a poll the other day that showed Kerry up by 4 to 5%. Now, you tell me, what does all that mean? It means the race is probably dead even.

As for the rest, B757300, you must be reading polls your making up. I saw one recent poll in Ohio, showed Bush up by 2 points, another Kerry by 3. Seen them in Michigan, most show Kerry up by a few points, same in Pennsylvania.

Again, this race will go down to the last week. If the Swift Boat Veterans of Lies had really had an impact, Kerry would be dropping a lot in the polls. He's not. He's either dropped a small bit, or not at all in most polls, which shows that those who are inclinded to vote for Kerry, are still inclined to do so, and those who were inclinded before these dishonorable vets put out this crap, to not vote for Kerry, still won't. Nothing has changed.

Bush will get a little bounce, but I think you'll find, by end of September, the "soufle" will have settled, and we'll be right back where we've been for months-dead even.

There is a real chance that Alpha1 is correct on the "no bounce" because minds are allready set prediction.

Which is sad, because americans really need to see what a weasel Kerry is.


And Alpha1, what is the deal with all these pet names for anti-kerry groups that bring up good points about him? Really just waters down your own arguements from any creditbility whatsoever.

There is a real chance that Alpha1 is correct on the "no bounce" because minds are allready set prediction.

That's what I'm thinking. I saw a quote from a Republican pollster, who feels Bush will get no more of a bounce than Kerry. Could be lowering of expectations, but he sounded pretty sincere. His point was, as you might correctly surmise, L-188, that most people-probably well over 90% have their minds made up.

That's why the SBVT campaign, devistating as it was, didn't really hurt Kerry much in the polls. In a year where there were more minds to be made up, it might have been crippling, but in a year where people seem to be locked in, it just doesn't have a long-term effect.

Maybe I give you shit, L-188, but, unlike some other members on the right, you at least put some thought into SOME of your threads. Excellent point here.

Alpha 1, make sure you have some extra-strength Bayer handy on election day. You might need it in the case of a heart attack if you heard the god awful news that GWB has won.

 



-NWA742