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LAXintl
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Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:21 pm

Back by multiple request, here is a Fall 2016 update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

As before, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also based on oldest to newest airframes for some common models.

A319 – $7.2 - 36.1M, $70-260,000
A320 – $1.9 - 43.1M, $40-335,000
A321 – $14.5 - 50.0M, $165-395,000
A330-200 – $23.9 - 85.3M, $260-740,000
A330-300 - $14.5 - 100.8M, $220-890,000
A380-800 - $114.7 - 224.5M, $900-1,900,000
B737-700 - $10.3 - 35.9M, $125-225,000
B737-800 - $14.6 - 45.6M, $180-350,000
B737-900ER - $26.0 - 46.9, $275-365,000
B747-400 – $3.6 – 9.1M, $90-175,000
B747-8i - $110.9 - 150.0, $825,000-1,150,000
B757-200 – $2.7 – 14.2M, $55-200,000
B767-300ER – $5.0 – 41.3M, $95-365,000
B777-200ER – $12.5 – 50.4M, $200-405,000
B777-300ER – $56.2 – 154.7M, $600-1,200,000
B787-8 - $80.9 - 117.4M, $650-900,000
B787-9 - $115.6 - 145.7, $950-1,100,000
CRJ200 – $1.5 - 3.2M, $40-57,000
CRJ700 – $7.5 – 17.8M, $90-200,000
CRJ900 - $8.9 – 25.4M, $135-235,000
Q400 – $7.1 – 20.6M, $95-195,000
ERJ145 – $1.6 – 4.0M, $44-60,000
EMB170 – $11.1 – 27.3M, $95-235,000
EMB190 – $14.7 – 34.7M, $160-280,000
ATR-72 – $4.8 – 20.0M, $60-175,000

The information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuations and is current as of August 2016.

Sources: IBA/Ascend
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:47 pm

How is it the ERJ-190 holds up so strong against the 73G and A319s?
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mercure1
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 4:24 pm

Thank you for providing such threads again. I always find them of interest.


Any pricing for large freighters? Also anything on A340 series?
Last edited by mercure1 on Wed Oct 12, 2016 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TNST3B
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 4:26 pm

STT757 wrote:
How is it the ERJ-190 holds up so strong against the 73G and A319s?


The oldest E190 is much newer than the oldest 73G or A319.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 5:12 pm

A332F – $61.6 - 94.9M, $575-800,000
B744F - $22.4 - 49.8M, $235-445,000
B748F - $114.9 - $181.0M, $950-1,450,000
B763F - $18.5 - $62.3M, $240-580,000
B777F – $91.8 - 161.1M, $800-1,150,000
MD-11F - $5.7 - 9.7M, $105-155,000
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:42 pm

Any data on A350 or is it still too new?
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:44 pm

Thank you for the update.

Any info on the A340?
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:48 pm

A343 - $3.4 - 15.9M, $100-185,000
A346 - $12.4 - 19.8M, $240-330,000

Nothing really on A350 as very few secondary transactions have occurred, though Finnair in last couple weeks did sell a few frames in sale/leaseback deal. I'd say give it to spring 2017 for models valuation to become better established.
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:53 pm

Lol, $3.4 million for an A340-300. Even the B767-300ER is more expensive!
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:01 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Back by multiple request, here is a Fall 2016 update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

B747-8i - $110.9 - 150.0, $825,000-1,150,000



First, awesome thank you again.

Second, have there *been* any secondary market sales of the 747-8i?
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:03 pm

And 77W also keeps declining: from $93m in 2012 to $88m in 2013, $76m in 2014, $60m in 2015 and now as low as $56m.
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:22 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Second, have there *been* any secondary market sales of the 747-8i?


Both CA, KE and atleast 1 VIP frame have done sale/lease backs

With dire future for the model, I would not want to be an airline holding the asset in another decade. Might as well collateralize it today while a new airframe than take risk on the asset value down the road.
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32andBelow
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:25 pm

LAXintl wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Second, have there *been* any secondary market sales of the 747-8i?


Both CA, KE and atleast 1 VIP frame have done sale/lease backs

With dire future for the model, I would not want to be an airline holding the asset in another decade. Might as well collateralize it today while a new airframe than take risk on the asset value down the road.

As long as there is a conversion program it shouldn't be too bad.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:32 pm

This is the first time that I have seen 787 prices.

It isnt surprising to me that ERJ145 and CRJ200 prices are so low. Older 757s, A320s and 747-400s are worth no more than scrap value either. It looks like none of the 737NGs have dropped that low in value yet. 767s are getting close.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:36 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
This is the first time that I have seen 787 prices.


viewtopic.php?t=567063
viewtopic.php?t=587137
viewtopic.php?t=597827

etc
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:07 pm

LAXintl wrote:
B744F - $22.4 - 49.8M, $235-445,000
B748F - $114.9 - $181.0M, $950-1,450,000


Interesting to me that at the high end of the scale you can get three 744Fs for the price of one 748F.

Shows why Boeing is having a hard time shifting 748Fs...

The disparity is far greater on the passenger side:

LAXintl wrote:
B747-400 – $3.6 – 9.1M, $90-175,000
B747-8i - $110.9 - 150.0, $825,000-1,150,000


Seems to indicate that all the 744s on the market are pretty clapped out?
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:14 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Lol, $3.4 million for an A340-300. Even the B767-300ER is more expensive!


...and a lot lot lot less than a G650. :P
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:35 pm

I always enjoy these threads, thank you.


Revelation wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
B744F - $22.4 - 49.8M, $235-445,000
B748F - $114.9 - $181.0M, $950-1,450,000


Interesting to me that at the high end of the scale you can get three 744Fs for the price of one 748F.

Shows why Boeing is having a hard time shifting 748Fs...

The disparity is far greater on the passenger side:

LAXintl wrote:
B747-400 – $3.6 – 9.1M, $90-175,000
B747-8i - $110.9 - 150.0, $825,000-1,150,000


Seems to indicate that all the 744s on the market are pretty clapped out?

I love the 747, but those prices indicate the pax models are not finding buyers. Sad, but it was time.

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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:02 am

Revelation wrote:
Shows why Boeing is having a hard time shifting 748Fs.


Data for the 748 is inflated because of the in-house Boeing Credit deals. If those were open market, values would be even lower.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 13, 2016 8:56 am

I would appreciate if you could share the following aircraft data:

MD82
MD83
MD90
B717
B733
B734
B753 (if there is any data at all?)
B764 (if there is any data at all?)
SSJ100
EMB120
Fokker 50
CL415, by any chance?

Thank you.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:20 am

LAXintl wrote:
Back by multiple request, here is a Fall 2016 update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

As before, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also based on oldest to newest airframes for some common models.

...


Very interesting thread, thank you LAXintl. I don't really know what to say about it, but I like these pure number threads. I once made a very comprehensive list of all available biz jets on the market and their list prices, prices for only a few month old planes for sale and for 3 year old birds. But that was in 2010, so the list is now outdated.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:52 am

32andBelow wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:


Both CA, KE and atleast 1 VIP frame have done sale/lease backs

With dire future for the model, I would not want to be an airline holding the asset in another decade. Might as well collateralize it today while a new airframe than take risk on the asset value down the road.

As long as there is a conversion program it shouldn't be too bad.


Not sure about that. Extended upper deck, and a soft-selling B748F. In 15-20 years time supporting such a small fleet (<100 aircraft?) will be tough. A B778F will probably be more attractive
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:02 am

With certain widebody aircraft being available for peanuts, I wonder if we will see any increase in widebody private jets?

An A340 could be bought, overhauled and fitted out for ~$20 million (please correct me if wrong), while a new G650 costs $65 million.

Even with the increased operating costs, an A340 could be a cheaper VVIP jet than a Gulfstream in the long run.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:20 am

KaiTak747 wrote:
With certain widebody aircraft being available for peanuts, I wonder if we will see any increase in widebody private jets?

An A340 could be bought, overhauled and fitted out for ~$20 million (please correct me if wrong), while a new G650 costs $65 million.

Even with the increased operating costs, an A340 could be a cheaper VVIP jet than a Gulfstream in the long run.


There's a lot of airports that it will be difficult/impossible to get the A340 into that the G650 will have no problems with.

It can also cruse at 51,000 ft whereas the Airbus stays at 43,000.

Since we're filthy rich, let's get one of each! :-)
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:25 am

Yet most A340s are heading to the knacker's yard for part out. I suppose the spare parts have more value than $3.4 million.
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ExDubai
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:46 am

KaiTak747 wrote:
With certain widebody aircraft being available for peanuts, I wonder if we will see any increase in widebody private jets?

An A340 could be bought, overhauled and fitted out for ~$20 million (please correct me if wrong), while a new G650 costs $65 million.

Even with the increased operating costs, an A340 could be a cheaper VVIP jet than a Gulfstream in the long run.

There are not that many A340 VVIP out there. The total cost of ownership is the big issue. Not an issue for a government, but a wealthy owner is looking at that point.
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miller22
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:53 am

Without ages, the list is irrelevant. You can't compare the value of an 8 year-old E190 with a 15 year-old A319.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
KaiTak747 wrote:
With certain widebody aircraft being available for peanuts, I wonder if we will see any increase in widebody private jets?

An A340 could be bought, overhauled and fitted out for ~$20 million (please correct me if wrong), while a new G650 costs $65 million.

Even with the increased operating costs, an A340 could be a cheaper VVIP jet than a Gulfstream in the long run.


There's a lot of airports that it will be difficult/impossible to get the A340 into that the G650 will have no problems with.

It can also cruse at 51,000 ft whereas the Airbus stays at 43,000.

Since we're filthy rich, let's get one of each! :-)


Good idea Revelation :D
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:55 pm

Any guesses if MAX and NEO models will destroy existing narrowbody pricing, or should the older models still remain valuable due to their popularity relative efficiency still?
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:17 pm

Hello,

Do you have any information on the BAe-146/RJ, both passenger and the QT? Thank you in advance and have a nice day.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:02 am

mercure1 wrote:
Any guesses if MAX and NEO models will destroy existing narrowbody pricing, or should the older models still remain valuable due to their popularity relative efficiency still?

In general, new aircraft reduce the resale value of old until the same return on Capitol is achieved (assuming dispatch reliability and maintenance costs.


So the older aircraft will retain value, but the depreciation rate will increase. The issue for used aircraft are the uncertainty (condition). So there is always a premium for new. The NEO and MAX also significantly increase range and are fitted with the latest lavatories and gallies which allow 2 more rows of seats.

All used aircraft need some refurbishment, so they sell discounted for the down time.

There will be a price decline for CEOs and NGs, but not a plummet. It take 30%+ of the fleet being at the new economics to effect competition. Considering there are 14,000+ narrowbodies in the fleet. It will take until 2020 to see new planes really driving down prices.

What is impacting prices is the need to keep the factories going. Rumors of $25 million per plane sales, if true, will drive down resale prices.

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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:10 pm

Numbers for some of the aircraft requested in post above;

MD-82 – $0.4 - 0.9M, $15-30,000
MD-90 – $2.7 - 3.9M, $65-75,000
B717 - $9.0 - 10.8M, $115-135,000
B733 - $1.2 - 3.5M, $30-68,000
B734 - $1.9 - 5.0M, $50-78,000
E120 - $0.4 - 1.2M, $15-26,000
F-50 - $0.9 - 2.1M, $26-36,000
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:24 pm

Thank you so much, very appreciated.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 19, 2016 3:22 am

LAXintl wrote:
A343 - $3.4 - 15.9M, $100-185,000
A346 - $12.4 - 19.8M, $240-330,000

Nothing really on A350 as very few secondary transactions have occurred, though Finnair in last couple weeks did sell a few frames in sale/leaseback deal. I'd say give it to spring 2017 for models valuation to become better established.

Anything on the A345, or are they too rare?
AS350, B733/4/7/8, B744/8, B762/3, B77E/L/W, B789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A346, A380, AT73/5/6, Q300, Q400, CR2/7, E190, S340, B1900C/D, E110 (E for epic)
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 19, 2016 5:04 pm

Below is the paper A345 valuation, though I doubt reality would be anywhere even close with near entire fleet grounded looking for homes. In other words the type is largely scrap value at the moment.

A345 - $12.2 - 18.3M, $250-320,000
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:57 pm

Don't think anyone wants a A345. Look at the all the aborted attempts TG have had to sell their frames. At the end they have now transferred one of them Thai Air Force as VIP transport.
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:35 pm

I'm surprised the Q400 is still holding up compared to the E170/175
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:21 pm

Recently I heard about a lease offer for an A330-900 which was in the low $700k's/month (10y contract). (I don't know what a 787-9 or -10 goes for the same terms, it would be interesting though!)
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Sun Oct 30, 2016 6:00 pm

alasizon wrote:
I'm surprised the Q400 is still holding up compared to the E170/175


Yes intersting especially considering how many Q400 frames are parked.
Though I guess we need to remember the Q400 price to start with was always more costly (compared to ATR72 for example), so even as it depreciate, the headline value is higher.
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:29 pm

sf260 wrote:
Recently I heard about a lease offer for an A330-900 which was in the low $700k's/month (10y contract). (I don't know what a 787-9 or -10 goes for the same terms, it would be interesting though!)


789 is listed in the main post.

LAXintl wrote:
B787-9 - $115.6 - 145.7, $950-1,100,000
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:52 pm

Yes, I know, that's why I've written 'on the same terms'. Of course we don't know the conditions of the 950k or the 1100k rate, it can be a 6y or 15y contract (and/or whatever additional terms).
In your initial post, you also quote a 890k rate for an (I presume, brand new) A330-300. I would be very surprised if that rate is higher than a A330-900 on the same terms. If you were a fleet manager and your were offered a lower rate for an A339 than an A333, that's a no-brainer, isn't it?

In short, the figures in your opening post are pretty much worthless without the proper T&C, they only give a (very) rough indication of the market (ok, we all know the age of the oldest A333 and B789)
Nevertheless, I love them, so please keep posting them in the future. I just thought to share the information I have available. ;)
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:01 pm

sf260 wrote:
If you were a fleet manager and your were offered a lower rate for an A339 than an A333, that's a no-brainer, isn't it?


Launch prices are usually a bit lower.
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:47 am

Hi,

first of all thank you for these useful information.
i'm beginner airliner so i have couple of question if you don't mind

B747-400 – $3.6 – 9.1M, $90-175,000

you mean here the market value of 747-400 if between $3.6-9.1M?
and the lease value between $90,000-175,000? is it wet or dry lease? if it is dry is there any way i can compute the wet lease cost?

if there any resources regarding aircraft valuation and leasing you can help me with i will be thankful

Thanks
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:39 am

No way that this is wet-lease. The staff cost alone might be in that range...
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:09 am

LAXintl wrote:
sf260 wrote:
Recently I heard about a lease offer for an A330-900 which was in the low $700k's/month (10y contract). (I don't know what a 787-9 or -10 goes for the same terms, it would be interesting though!)


789 is listed in the main post.

LAXintl wrote:
B787-9 - $115.6 - 145.7, $950-1,100,000


So, about 20 tons of JP worth cheaper per day........

best regards
Thomas
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:10 pm

CARST wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Back by multiple request, here is a Fall 2016 update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

As before, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also based on oldest to newest airframes for some common models.

...


Very interesting thread, thank you LAXintl. I don't really know what to say about it, but I like these pure number threads. I once made a very comprehensive list of all available biz jets on the market and their list prices, prices for only a few month old planes for sale and for 3 year old birds. But that was in 2010, so the list is now outdated.

If you update you're list of business jet prices, I would be interested. In particular after the sharp depreciation we've seen over the last two years.


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benbeny
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:50 pm

So you can actually sell your B738, buy B744 and still have spare cash to spend on another widebody...
BTW is there any transactions for MAX or NEO?
 
A388
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:45 pm

Thank you very much for these updated numbers LAXintl!!! I always love reading these and I have saved all the prices since 2014!!! Very valuable information.

LAXintl, do you have the values and lease rates for the F70?


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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Nov 10, 2016 4:19 pm

SASQ wrote:
you mean here the market value of 747-400 if between $3.6-9.1M?
and the lease value between $90,000-175,000? is it wet or dry lease? if it is dry is there any way i can compute the wet lease cost?

Its basic dry lease. Without any additional accruals reserves for maintenance of airframe/engine/landing gear/apu/life limited parts, or insurance.

For wetlease, suspect you are looking at $9,000+ per block hour with a monthly minimum, plus fuel cost.

benbeny wrote:
So you can actually sell your B738, buy B744 and still have spare cash to spend on another widebody...
BTW is there any transactions for MAX or NEO?

I'm sure there have been a few sale/leasebacks, but data points are limited.
Once airplanes are in service and second hand transactions become more common the market valuation will be better established.

A388 wrote:
LAXintl, do you have the values and lease rates for the F70?
A388

Sorry on F-70, but the F-100 value is $0.8-2.1 and $40-49,000 for the lease.
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tommy1808
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Fall 2016

Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:47 pm

sf260 wrote:
In your initial post, you also quote a 890k rate for an (I presume, brand new) A330-300. I would be very surprised if that rate is higher than a A330-900 on the same terms. If you were a fleet manager and your were offered a lower rate for an A339 than an A333, that's a no-brainer, isn't it?


You can have your A333 theoretically tomorrow, you can't have your A339 before 2018.
If you need an WB aircraft quickly...

Best regards
Thomas
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