Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Thenoflyzone wrote:AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.
Thenoflyzone wrote:AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.
Thenoflyzone wrote:AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.
skipness1E wrote:What's the plan for the likes of YOW-LHR and YHZ-LHR once the B763s are gone? The B787-8 is too much aircraft IMHO so will these routes be rouged or dropped? Or is the B737 MAX the solution?
NichCage wrote:How is Air Canada doing on YOW-FRA? It was turned from year round to seasonal, but is it profitable? What traffic does the route serve?
hkcanadaexpat wrote:yow-lhr is going nowhere . too much government contract flying. it will go 788/333 like all other TATL routes I believe. but a few 763s will be around for next 24 months or so, so not imminent. I assume yhz-lhr the same. the one that should go Rouge is YYC-OGG, surprised it hasn't done so yet.
longhauler wrote:The only exception might be YHZ-LHR. Rumours are running that when the MAX-8 is delivered, YHZ-LHR will be replaced by two MAX-8s flying YHZ-LHR and YHZ-FRA.
Thenoflyzone wrote:AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.
Dominion301 wrote:NichCage wrote:How is Air Canada doing on YOW-FRA? It was turned from year round to seasonal, but is it profitable? What traffic does the route serve?
When operating, YOW-FRA typically pulls loads in the 80s. I personally think the only reasons why it went seasonal is a) due to AC's massive build-up at their hubs (AC has cut YOW in recent years to pump up yields to offset yield dilution at their hubs), b) a lack of competition at YOW and c) like longhauler said delays in 787 deliveries resulting in aircraft shortages at AC.
I took YOW-FRA many times when it used to operate both year-round and as a full summer-seasonal and I was never on a flight with a load under 85%. AC due to the YOW airport authority's abysmal track record with air service development knows they can get away with "highway robbery" at YOW by cutting capacity while they increase it practically everywhere else. YOW-LHR can easily handle a 788. They used a 333 on the route a few summers ago when they had an incentive to help put YOW-based Zoom out of business.
I think YHZ-LHR will go 737 in winter to allow for year-round daily service and be a 788 in summer. YHZ-FRA on a 737 interesting idea! Condor wouldn't be happy about that!
aemoreira1981 wrote:This is where an A321neoLR lease should be considered with Air Lease Corporation or some other lessor for faster delivery...with some direct orders down the line. They could also be used on transcon routes.
1900Driver wrote:Dominion301 wrote:NichCage wrote:How is Air Canada doing on YOW-FRA? It was turned from year round to seasonal, but is it profitable? What traffic does the route serve?
When operating, YOW-FRA typically pulls loads in the 80s. I personally think the only reasons why it went seasonal is a) due to AC's massive build-up at their hubs (AC has cut YOW in recent years to pump up yields to offset yield dilution at their hubs), b) a lack of competition at YOW and c) like longhauler said delays in 787 deliveries resulting in aircraft shortages at AC.
I took YOW-FRA many times when it used to operate both year-round and as a full summer-seasonal and I was never on a flight with a load under 85%. AC due to the YOW airport authority's abysmal track record with air service development knows they can get away with "highway robbery" at YOW by cutting capacity while they increase it practically everywhere else. YOW-LHR can easily handle a 788. They used a 333 on the route a few summers ago when they had an incentive to help put YOW-based Zoom out of business.
I think YHZ-LHR will go 737 in winter to allow for year-round daily service and be a 788 in summer. YHZ-FRA on a 737 interesting idea! Condor wouldn't be happy about that!
Sadly I don't think the MAX8 will be within YOW-FRA's range. The 321LR would be had AC ordered that. At this point, I just hope that YOW-FRA returns to a full IATA summer season in 2018.
Perhaps, but I think you're over looking the main problem with air travel out of Canada & that's seasonality. Practically anything (within reason) could work to Europe in the summer & Xmas holiday. Was YOW-FRA profitable during the winter months? Perhaps/perhaps not? Did AC feel that the opportunity cost of utilizing that 763 was too great relative to somewhere else in the network? Maybe? I personally believe that the route would still be there if was achieving their fiscal targets.
It would be nice to see it come back. Perhaps Max8 would render it viable year round?
Dominion301 wrote:1900Driver wrote:Dominion301 wrote:
I don't know whether the 737-8 has the range to do YOW-FRA, especially eastbound in winter. The 321LR probably would have.
dr1980 wrote:longhauler wrote:The only exception might be YHZ-LHR. Rumours are running that when the MAX-8 is delivered, YHZ-LHR will be replaced by two MAX-8s flying YHZ-LHR and YHZ-FRA.
I have to say as a Haligonian I find that very interesting!
Thenoflyzone wrote:AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.
1900Driver wrote:Let's add another dynamic variable to this discussion. Suppose BA or AF/KLM enters the market? How would AC react?
beechnut wrote:Dominion301 wrote:1900Driver wrote:
I think you meant westbound. Eastbound in winter should be a cinch. But westbound is another matter.
Beech
skipness1E wrote:What's the plan for the likes of YOW-LHR and YHZ-LHR once the B763s are gone? The B787-8 is too much aircraft IMHO so will these routes be rouged or dropped? Or is the B737 MAX the solution?
Alexdk wrote:aemoreira1981 wrote:This is where an A321neoLR lease should be considered with Air Lease Corporation or some other lessor for faster delivery...with some direct orders down the line. They could also be used on transcon routes.
I was quite surprised when I found out that AC did not order them or any new Airbus.
1900Driver wrote:Thenoflyzone wrote:AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.
They did originally, but converted the balance of the orders to 789. I could see yow going 333 & yyc-nrt perhaps back to 788? The max 8 or 9 should be able to handle yhz-lhr with a full load according to their specs (& depending on stops cert). Though, I am not sure how much cargo business they will have to give up??
bmacleod wrote:1900Driver wrote:Thenoflyzone wrote:AC should have ordered more than just 8 B788s. Had they done that, YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR/FRA and YHZ-LHR would have the 788 by now.
They did originally, but converted the balance of the orders to 789. I could see yow going 333 & yyc-nrt perhaps back to 788? The max 8 or 9 should be able to handle yhz-lhr with a full load according to their specs (& depending on stops cert). Though, I am not sure how much cargo business they will have to give up??
Cargojet flies 763s into YHZ. Assuming the 737-MAX-9 did takeover YHZ-LHR; theoretically the Cargojet 763 could takeover cargo operations for that route as AC have an operations arrangement with them...
http://www.cargojet.com/pressReleases/2016/2016-09.htm
bmacleod wrote:Cargojet flies 763s into YHZ. Assuming the 737-MAX-9 did takeover YHZ-LHR; theoretically the Cargojet 763 could takeover cargo operations for that route as AC have an operations arrangement with them...
longhauler wrote:bmacleod wrote:Cargojet flies 763s into YHZ. Assuming the 737-MAX-9 did takeover YHZ-LHR; theoretically the Cargojet 763 could takeover cargo operations for that route as AC have an operations arrangement with them...
Not for very much longer.
An extension is being considered, but even if allowed, it would not extend past this year.
bmacleod wrote:Until then one option is two have 4-5 days 788 YHZ-LHR service, and remaining 2-3 days going YHZ-YUL-LHR or YHZ-YOW-LHR.
jfk777 wrote:using a 787 from Halifax or St. John to London or Europe is silly, an overkill. This is the type of route a 737 Max was designed for.
sixtyseven wrote:As for them all being ETOPS that is not my understanding. I think only about a dozen will be delivered ETOPS.
longhauler wrote:bmacleod wrote:Until then one option is two have 4-5 days 788 YHZ-LHR service, and remaining 2-3 days going YHZ-YUL-LHR or YHZ-YOW-LHR.
It would appear though, that both YUL and YOW can each support a 787, so adding YHZ to the mix would just dilute yield.
jfk777 wrote:Air Canada at one time had an A319 to LHR, its only about 2,200 miles, not a long distance for any commercial plane made today. The Canadian Maritime Provinces are so close to London that a morning flight is viable as is an overnight one. Two 737 Max flights are viable daily but using a 787 from Halifax or St. John to London or Europe is silly, an overkill. This is the type of route a 737 Max was designed for.
longhauler wrote:jfk777 wrote:using a 787 from Halifax or St. John to London or Europe is silly, an overkill. This is the type of route a 737 Max was designed for.
Not if you can fill 280+ seats and 30,000 kgs of cargo. The 787 can fly 15 hours, it doesn't have to! In other words, one 787 can do the job cheaper than 2 MAX-8s.
And who knows ... YHZ-LHR might just be one small leg of 5 days of worldwide flying .... YVR-BNE-YVR-LHR-YHZ-LHR-YYC etc etc etc. And YHZ-LHR is quite a bit longer than a few present 787 routes ... YYZ-YVR, YYZ-SFO, YYZ-LAXsixtyseven wrote:As for them all being ETOPS that is not my understanding. I think only about a dozen will be delivered ETOPS.
Yes, that was not worded well. The point I was making, is that the ones that are ETOPS equipped, will arrive from Boeing with the certification already intact. With a new airframe/engine/airline combination, Transport Canada paused, looked closely at the specs, then allowed it. Boeing publicly announced that achievement. So, if AC chose, the innagural flight could be YHZ-FRA.
dr1980 wrote:longhauler wrote:The only exception might be YHZ-LHR. Rumours are running that when the MAX-8 is delivered, YHZ-LHR will be replaced by two MAX-8s flying YHZ-LHR and YHZ-FRA.
I have to say as a Haligonian I find that very interesting!
jfk777 wrote:What type of Cargo for 30,000 kgs. is carried ? Fresh Fish and perishables or can it go via Toronto ?
longhauler wrote:jfk777 wrote:What type of Cargo for 30,000 kgs. is carried ? Fresh Fish and perishables or can it go via Toronto ?
Of course it can go through Toronto. But why? When you have a daily wide body from YHZ already. Why try to make the whole operation more difficult when the solution already exists?
Remember, that the 787 was chosen as a 767-300 and A330-300 replacement. We really shouldn't be surprised when that happens.
SaschaYHZ wrote:dr1980 wrote:longhauler wrote:The only exception might be YHZ-LHR. Rumours are running that when the MAX-8 is delivered, YHZ-LHR will be replaced by two MAX-8s flying YHZ-LHR and YHZ-FRA.
I have to say as a Haligonian I find that very interesting!
Same here! I have some family in FRA and not having to connect via YYZ or YUL would be kinda nice and save me a few hours.
bmacleod wrote:Condor flies seasonal 763 from YHZ-FRA, that leaves winter open but I still don't see a profitable decent market even for AC to jump in with a MAX-8 on that route...yet.
bmacleod wrote:SaschaYHZ wrote:dr1980 wrote:
I have to say as a Haligonian I find that very interesting!
Same here! I have some family in FRA and not having to connect via YYZ or YUL would be kinda nice and save me a few hours.
Condor flies seasonal 763 from YHZ-FRA, that leaves winter open but I still don't see a profitable decent market even for AC to jump in with a MAX-8 on that route...yet.
As for rumors of YHZ losing wide-body service to LHR those rumors will likely fade away as both pax and cargo yields will continue to remain strong.