Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
AirbusMDCFAN
Topic Author
Posts: 497
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:51 am

Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Mon May 08, 2017 10:29 pm

Partial free/partial subscription - link/Source: http://atwonline.com/airframes/emirates ... 790f2e2800


"Emirates Airline president Tim Clark said 115 Airbus A380s is the “absolute maximum” aircraft its Dubai International Airport hub will be able to handle. Clark told ATW the Dubai-based carrier’s 115 aircraft order “will be [completed] in the middle of 2019.”

How many A380s does Emirates currently operate, and why not start sending some A380s into DWC instead of DXB.
 
User avatar
KTPAFlyer
Posts: 764
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 8:08 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Mon May 08, 2017 10:39 pm

Why not build a new Concourse? Problem solved. :D
 
NichCage
Posts: 916
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 6:43 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Mon May 08, 2017 11:16 pm

DXB is getting pretty busy, and there is not a lot of space for new gates I would think. No airline like EK itself has so many A380's.
 
Ruscoe
Posts: 1752
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 1999 5:41 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Mon May 08, 2017 11:27 pm

Tim Clark also said a move to DWG was not possible for 10 years.
Is he saying to Airbus, no matter how good the deal, we cannot take any more 380 after mid 2019, when the 115th will arrive. If so it is very good of him to announce this publicly, giving it weight, thus allowing Airbus to make decisions about the 380, with confidence, they know the situation as it is. ( not being facetious)

Ruscoe
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 27445
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 12:02 am

Ruscoe wrote:
Tim Clark also said a move to DWG was not possible for 10 years.
Is he saying to Airbus, no matter how good the deal, we cannot take any more 380 after mid 2019, when the 115th will arrive. If so it is very good of him to announce this publicly, giving it weight, thus allowing Airbus to make decisions about the 380, with confidence, they know the situation as it is. ( not being facetious)

Ruscoe

Or TC and Airbus have talked privately (as one would presume that they would do, instead of communicating via the media) and TC knows that a decision is already made, and he's "allowing" (your word) Airbus to use this "news" as a way to cushion the impact of such a decision (which many have already seen coming). We shall see...
 
User avatar
KTPAFlyer
Posts: 764
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2015 8:08 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 12:08 am

I'm sure there's some logic behind this, but I find it amazing that 115 is the limit for DXB. I have no doubt that this number factors in how many are in the air and on the ground at peak time, but I have flown into DXB on multiple occasions when it is almost ghostly empty. It's possible that it's this empty because there are placeholder slots EK plans to fill in later as the fleet grows, but even then, a substantial part of the fleet is always parked on the harstands. DXB's banking system is pretty inefficient as an artificial (and unnecessary) cap on flights where you can have the airport bursting at the seams one hour and empty the next. If they want to expand, rebank it.
 
User avatar
Btblue
Posts: 707
Joined: Thu Mar 18, 2004 4:57 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 12:13 am

115 aircraft may well be the limit but they will need to replace older frames as and when the time comes... IF they still need them. But this does sound like they (Airbus and Emirates) are prepping the landscape for a possible end to A380 production if the Neo isn't realistic enough.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 11271
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 12:31 am

Btblue wrote:
this does sound like they (Airbus and Emirates) are prepping the landscape for a possible end to A380 production if the Neo isn't realistic enough.

....prepping the landscape for who....financial markets that may take a hit on the cost related to ceasing production?
The A380 is a big bird, hard to imagine "nostalgia" purchases if and when the announcements comes.
 
User avatar
Clipper101
Posts: 697
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 1:07 am

I would say it is a hint towards the timeframe [2019] when operators would be asked to start vacating DXB and move towards DWC and make room for EK to be sole operator in DXB before EK itself moves to DWC sometime in 2020’s. The 115 A380’s by then could be the maximum that DXB can handle in mixing operations between VLA (A380) and other smaller types such as A320/B737 in terms of air separation & setting ATC handling priorities.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23927
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 2:27 am

Revelation wrote:
Ruscoe wrote:
Tim Clark also said a move to DWG was not possible for 10 years.
Is he saying to Airbus, no matter how good the deal, we cannot take any more 380 after mid 2019, when the 115th will arrive. If so it is very good of him to announce this publicly, giving it weight, thus allowing Airbus to make decisions about the 380, with confidence, they know the situation as it is. ( not being facetious)

Ruscoe

Or TC and Airbus have talked privately (as one would presume that they would do, instead of communicating via the media) and TC knows that a decision is already made, and he's "allowing" (your word) Airbus to use this "news" as a way to cushion the impact of such a decision (which many have already seen coming). We shall see...

I'm with your interpretation Revelation. Airbus cannot modify the A380 in a timely manner prior to EK's move to DWC. Because of that, the bridge to the next A380 is unlikely.

I think we've just found a adios to the A380 production. Many years in advance, but once EK stops accepting the type, the type is done.

Lightsaber
 
User avatar
Clipper101
Posts: 697
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 3:02 am

Clipper101 wrote:
I would say it is a hint towards the timeframe [2019] when operators would be asked to start vacating DXB and move towards DWC and make room for EK to be sole operator in DXB before EK itself moves to DWC sometime in 2020’s. The 115 A380’s by then could be the maximum that DXB can handle in mixing operations between VLA (A380) and other smaller types such as A320/B737 in terms of air separation & setting ATC handling priorities.


Now I also got to remember that the last 50 A380 order was split into two batches, so we have 115 A380 which will be delivered by 2019 and should include only the first 25 A380’s from the first batch (90 [from earlier orders]+25 [1st batch of the last order of 50] = 115). Therefore, still EK should be expecting a further second 25 A380 batch from AI (may be after 2020 in-time for DWC)!
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5371
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 3:25 am

Will leasers be offering terms for extending leases such that newer planes will not be needed? Or if EK retires planes at the 12 year mark how many will they be taking and for how long? When would it quit being enough to continue 380 production?
 
AA737-823
Posts: 5589
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2000 11:10 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 4:14 am

Clipper101 wrote:
Clipper101 wrote:
I would say it is a hint towards the timeframe [2019] when operators would be asked to start vacating DXB and move towards DWC and make room for EK to be sole operator in DXB before EK itself moves to DWC sometime in 2020’s. The 115 A380’s by then could be the maximum that DXB can handle in mixing operations between VLA (A380) and other smaller types such as A320/B737 in terms of air separation & setting ATC handling priorities.


Now I also got to remember that the last 50 A380 order was split into two batches, so we have 115 A380 which will be delivered by 2019 and should include only the first 25 A380’s from the first batch (90 [from earlier orders]+25 [1st batch of the last order of 50] = 115). Therefore, still EK should be expecting a further second 25 A380 batch from AI (may be after 2020 in-time for DWC)!


This.
OF NOTE, Wikipedia shows 94 in fleet, with 48 on order. That's far more than 115.

Interesting, however, that 115 is the EXACT number of 777-9X on order...
 
User avatar
RL777
Posts: 651
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:43 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 4:35 am

Like I've posted in a few different EK/A380 Program discussions, I firmly believe their order book and strategy will be modified sooner rather than later. With DWC seemingly being pushed further and further back its going to restrict EKs growth given the problems they face at DXB couple that with the fact they have too much capacity within their network right now (see US flight cuts) and what you get is the need to dial back a little bit. I think we will see a portion of either their A380 or 779 order converted into either A359s or 789s.

As per the A380 program future and whether this announcement is part of a larger program announcement coming remains to be seen however my two cents on that matter is that the program will be winding down soon. Now I also believe Airbus will revisit the A380 or VLA segment sometime down the road, I think the A380 is a fantastic aircraft that came far ahead of the market for it. In 10-17 years when more of the worlds airports are congested it simply won't be an option for a lot of them to expand and surely many governments will not be willing to fork over the capital to build a new airport. The A380 will be a factor however right now its proven to be problematic for many carriers who can't fill it and with its poor underbelly capacity your essential then flying around dead weight.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 10417
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 4:54 am

The poor underbelly capacity is the least of the problems, considering the small revenue (if any at all) underbelly cargo makes at the moment with huge space available in the market.
 
sierra3tango
Posts: 587
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:59 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 6:34 am

Would have thought EK will want to replace (at the very least) the first 25 frames delivered before any production cessation.
But DWC now 10 years away, delayed again...wonder why, could it be lack of money/
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12955
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 7:17 am

Ok, A380 limits, but why mentioning the A380 only, they have tons of B77W. So what is the problem? Gate restricted, slot restricted, the capacity of the terminals themselves?
 
User avatar
JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1997
Joined: Fri May 25, 2007 7:24 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 7:18 am

My recollection of EK's most recent order for 50 RR frames was that 25 were earmarked for growth and 25 for replacement. Their oldest EA frame will be 12 in 2020, allowing for the replacement cycle to commence after the 115th is delivered in 2019. I'm not sure there is anything new here.
 
r2rho
Posts: 3096
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 10:13 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 9:14 am

I don't believe this necessarily means the end of the program. The reason EK has some many A380s is that they have grown at the expense of, mostly, EU carriers, which have stagnated due to hogh costs, lack of runways, etc. Hence, EU majors have around 12 A380s each, while EK is approaching 100. These A380s are carrying real people, moving real traffic flows. If EK cannot grow beyond 2019 due to DXB restrictions, any growth in those traffic flows will simply go elsewhere. Which means that the A380 could become a viable option again for other airlines, whether ME, EU or other, to capture those traffic flows that DXB will no longer be able to handle. And in a way it could be good for the A380 as it would diversify its customer portfolio.
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 9:19 am

Nothing new here, Tim Clark said exactly the same in 2013 when Emirates ordered the last batch A380s.
 
User avatar
Channex757
Posts: 2423
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:07 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 9:30 am

Dutchy wrote:
Ok, A380 limits, but why mentioning the A380 only, they have tons of B77W. So what is the problem? Gate restricted, slot restricted, the capacity of the terminals themselves?

A combination of factors. Runway and stand capacity, as well as air traffic control.

EK could also be implying that the only way to grow past this hard limit is to grow the A380 itself. Instead of the spin above, is Sir Tim agitating for the A380-900NEO again? Might this even indicate some deal has been done with Airbus to push forward with the modest stretch and re-engine project?

Unlikely at this stage but as with anything in Dubai and with Emirates, who knows?
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 9:35 am

I agree that there is not much news here.115 sounds about right for airport capacity - and - frankly it's as much (if not more) than they need anyway for the operating fleet.The final 25 on order (2020-2021) will (as stated above) be replacements for the first gen (heavy) machines.The bigger question might be 'what then?'Will they continue to replace the earlier aircraft,move to a different aircraft or a mixture of both?
I don't suppose even they know and they have the luxury of 'wait and see',which is the obvious and sensible route.
If I had to guess I would see production coming to an end circa 2025.The aircraft is not '10 years ahead of its time' -for most airlines it's simply too big.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 12955
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 9:44 am

Channex757 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Ok, A380 limits, but why mentioning the A380 only, they have tons of B77W. So what is the problem? Gate restricted, slot restricted, the capacity of the terminals themselves?

A combination of factors. Runway and stand capacity, as well as air traffic control.

EK could also be implying that the only way to grow past this hard limit is to grow the A380 itself. Instead of the spin above, is Sir Tim agitating for the A380-900NEO again? Might this even indicate some deal has been done with Airbus to push forward with the modest stretch and re-engine project?

Unlikely at this stage but as with anything in Dubai and with Emirates, who knows?


If that is the case, it will be interesting to watch. A much talked about A380-850Neo won't be done before 2023, if they started work now and Airbus wants some guarantee that they will recover their money by doing this, which means a very big (at least 200) launching order and a relatively low investment.

I don't see it happening in the current climate, but who knows.
 
Noshow
Posts: 3234
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 9:46 am

So when will EK need A380 fleet replacement orders as their aircraft are said to be leased for around twelve years each?
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 10:02 am

Revelation wrote:
Ruscoe wrote:
Tim Clark also said a move to DWG was not possible for 10 years.
Is he saying to Airbus, no matter how good the deal, we cannot take any more 380 after mid 2019, when the 115th will arrive. If so it is very good of him to announce this publicly, giving it weight, thus allowing Airbus to make decisions about the 380, with confidence, they know the situation as it is. ( not being facetious)

Ruscoe

Or TC and Airbus have talked privately (as one would presume that they would do, instead of communicating via the media) and TC knows that a decision is already made, and he's "allowing" (your word) Airbus to use this "news" as a way to cushion the impact of such a decision (which many have already seen coming). We shall see...


Emirates has no plans to operate more than 115 A380s before the carrier moves to DWC in 2025.

As mentioned in 2013, the remaining 25 A380s on order are meant for replacement. The first A380 should leave the fleet around 2020, that's when the 116th A380 comes and starts replacing the older A380s.
 
behramjee
Posts: 5203
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 10:06 am

isn't FZ moving a part of its current S17 operation to DWC in W17 on a more permanent basis thus freeing up many slots at DXB? or is this just a myth?
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 10:22 am

S17 ops.Yes they said they were,but they are not A380 slots.Emirates have been increasingly 'loud' about buying smaller aircraft.Indeed they even mentioned narrowdody aircaft (but I find this hard to believe).But these 'spare slots' will no doubt be welcome for such operations.
 
User avatar
PHBVF
Posts: 188
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:45 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 10:25 am

Maybe they could place them at FCO/MXP to fill the void AZ will leave :duck:
 
User avatar
N717TW
Posts: 611
Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:24 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 12:22 pm

KTPAFlyer wrote:
Why not build a new Concourse? Problem solved. :D


no need. Just add more connecting banks. DXB is more or less the world's best example of a connecting hub airport, so its all about creating times to connect flights rather than meeting local traffic--plus its a 24 hour airport. Correct me if I'm wrong but EK has only four main banks of flights. Granted, a bank based with 77W and A380s probably requires 2+ hours compared to your more standard 75 minute AMS/FRA/CDG/ATL/ORD/DFW bank. That said, EK can probably squeeze in another bank.
 
User avatar
Channex757
Posts: 2423
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:07 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 12:35 pm

behramjee wrote:
isn't FZ moving a part of its current S17 operation to DWC in W17 on a more permanent basis thus freeing up many slots at DXB? or is this just a myth?

Again, you have to make the distinction between slots and gate space. One can't work without the other. Narrowbody gates are not a lot of use for super widebody class aircraft as they either don't fit or if modified for joint use, need up to two narrowbody stands.

There is also the third issue, which is ATC slots. The region is becoming more and more congested as DXB, DWC, AUH, SHJ and other airports all operate in a relatively small corridor. Emirates is starting to come up against serious limits to expansion caused by physical limits, which is why I think Sir Tim might be negotiating in public for the re-engined and higher capacity A380NEO once again.

It's his style and the timing fits, no matter what the cheerleaders have to say on it. This latest round could even be another Clark-Leahy production that tries to shake out some extra A380NEO support by waving the flag for it publicly. John Leahy would like a big win to finish his career with and this could be his biggest yet.
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2957
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 12:46 pm

Btblue wrote:
115 aircraft may well be the limit but they will need to replace older frames as and when the time comes... IF they still need them. But this does sound like they (Airbus and Emirates) are prepping the landscape for a possible end to A380 production if the Neo isn't realistic enough.


When half of the 380's will probably be parked at the airport, sitting and doing nothing, than 115 will definitely be the limit. Unless of course, the UAE government kicks in its usual dose of government subsidies to keep those half empty planes flying.
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 12:50 pm

The 380 NEO?I can't see it myself.The raft of internal changes recently released can add 15% more seating whilst still retaining X10 econ seating.I would have thought that this was more than enough to be getting on with.Love to see some blended winglets however!
But I really can't see a re engine .
 
User avatar
zkojq
Posts: 4937
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 1:04 pm

jumbojet wrote:
Btblue wrote:
115 aircraft may well be the limit but they will need to replace older frames as and when the time comes... IF they still need them. But this does sound like they (Airbus and Emirates) are prepping the landscape for a possible end to A380 production if the Neo isn't realistic enough.


When half of the 380's will probably be parked at the airport, sitting and doing nothing, than 115 will definitely be the limit. Unless of course, the UAE government kicks in its usual dose of government subsidies to keep those half empty planes flying.

You've got it wrong, the money flows the other way. Last year EK paid a 700,000,000 divided to the government!

Also can I please have a source on your half-empty comment? Every time I've flown EK in the last couple of years the A380s have been very full. Have you even flown EK?
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2957
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 1:15 pm

zkojq wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
Btblue wrote:
115 aircraft may well be the limit but they will need to replace older frames as and when the time comes... IF they still need them. But this does sound like they (Airbus and Emirates) are prepping the landscape for a possible end to A380 production if the Neo isn't realistic enough.


When half of the 380's will probably be parked at the airport, sitting and doing nothing, than 115 will definitely be the limit. Unless of course, the UAE government kicks in its usual dose of government subsidies to keep those half empty planes flying.

You've got it wrong, the money flows the other way. Last year EK paid a 700,000,000 divided to the government!

Also can I please have a source on your half-empty comment? Every time I've flown EK in the last couple of years the A380s have been very full. Have you even flown EK?


Just take a look at DXB-SEA-DXB. Worse than half empty, both flights are like 75% empty. No airline that counts on their own money to survive would keep both flights let alone one of them.
 
User avatar
KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 1:19 pm

jumbojet wrote:
Just take a look at DXB-SEA-DXB. Worse than half empty, both flights are like 75% empty. No airline that counts on their own money to survive would keep both flights let alone one of them.


One flight don't set the standard. According to Emirates' financial reports, average load factors are in line with industry standards.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20773
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 1:24 pm

jumbojet wrote:
Just take a look at DXB-SEA-DXB. Worse than half empty, both flights are like 75% empty. No airline that counts on their own money to survive would keep both flights let alone one of them.


I recently flew LAS-OAK on WN, the flight had about 40 pax. :shock:

Taking one flight or route in isolation and claiming it represents something is beyond pointless. But hey, why let an opportunity to bash EK pass?
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2957
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 1:24 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
Just take a look at DXB-SEA-DXB. Worse than half empty, both flights are like 75% empty. No airline that counts on their own money to survive would keep both flights let alone one of them.


One flight don't set the standard. According to Emirates' financial reports, average load factors are in line with industry standards.


No way you buy hundreds of the most expensive commercial planes in the world, fly a good portion of them at way less than capacity, charge ridiculously low fares yet pay your staff competitive wages and make all that money they say they make to give back to the UAE government. Just think about that for a second. No way they survive without regular financial handouts from its government, no way.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 1:40 pm

zkojq wrote:
You've got it wrong, the money flows the other way. Last year EK paid a 700,000,000 divided to the government!


IMHO, Those days of paying dividends thru SLB transactions are long gone. Now with probably no lessor ready to lease these frames, DAE(may be AWAS) has to run these leases thru their system as a face saving measure.

Unfortunately AWAS is a private equity owned. Had it been a publicly traded American Inc., DAE/Emirates can load it up and run it thru Chapter 11 cycle. That way we not only subsidize the initial purchase thru Boeing discounts, Washington State incentives and EXIM financing, but also help wipe their debt.

Just my opinion, not a fact.
 
emiratesdriver
Posts: 294
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:04 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 1:56 pm

No way you buy hundreds of the most expensive commercial planes in the world, fly a good portion of them at way less than capacity, charge ridiculously low fares yet pay your staff competitive wages and make all that money they say they make to give back to the UAE government. Just think about that for a second. No way they survive without regular financial handouts from its government, no way.


Jumbojet, clearly you haven't got a clue, EK is merely another money making entity of Dubai Inc, just like the artificially controlled real estate market and all the businesses that require a "Local" licensee.
EK is far from flying at waaay less than capacity, yes in my opinion they have too many 380s operating on routes they are ill suited for, more out of organisational hubris than good sense but they still make money for Dubai, not the other way round.
This statement is yet another pre-emptive message to smooth the way for the 380 project to end, it will be considered in time as TCs folly he took so many.
Structurally DXB will have no trouble coping with 115 frames...but if EK wants to survive and evolve they will do their best to get the fleet back to 60-80 as quickly as leasing allows.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 17196
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 2:00 pm

I was half expecting you to say that the limit was 115 as they is all they can park on the ground at any one time.
 
Strato2
Posts: 648
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 2:26 pm

emiratesdriver wrote:
This statement is yet another pre-emptive message to smooth the way for the 380 project to end, it will be considered in time as TCs folly he took so many.
Structurally DXB will have no trouble coping with 115 frames...but if EK wants to survive and evolve they will do their best to get the fleet back to 60-80 as quickly as leasing allows.


For a supposed insider you seem to know very little. EK's plan never was to operate more than 115 frames at a time. The latest A380 order for Emirates is for 50 aircraft out of which 25 are for replacements which will make 115 as the active fleet. It is of course nothing new here when the A380 is considered that many members will make their own interpretations on what has been said regardless of what actually has been said.
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 4351
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 3:08 pm

jumbojet wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
Just take a look at DXB-SEA-DXB. Worse than half empty, both flights are like 75% empty.


One flight don't set the standard.


No way you buy hundreds of the most expensive commercial planes in the world, [...] No way [...] no way.

Per seat they are not "the most expensive commercial planes in the world".

Regarding the topic: as KarelXWB and other members already pointed out, that's what they said when they ordered the last 50 airframes.
 
User avatar
Clipper101
Posts: 697
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 3:40 pm

AA737-823 wrote:
OF NOTE, Wikipedia shows 94 in fleet, with 48 on order. That's far more than 115.


The two additional A380’s Wiki is talking about should be those two A380’s destined for Skymark. I would not be surprised if these should make for the early retirement of oldest two from EK fleet, A6-EDA/B (MSN011 & 013) both delivered 2008; so the count with delivery of the first 25 batch from the latest 50 A380 order should be by 2019 equal to 115 (90+2-2+25=115).

EK A380 fleet practically look new to me: Last of the ED-Line was delivered 2012, EE-Line started to be delivered 2012; the earliest that could be slotted for retirement when the second batch start to arrive are 5 A380’s (deliveries 2008 through 2009) [these are minus A6-EDA/B talked about above], then 13 A380’s (deliveries 2010 - 2011), before A380’s delivered 2012 onward start to kick in.
 
emiratesdriver
Posts: 294
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:04 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 3:58 pm

Strato2 wrote:
emiratesdriver wrote:
This statement is yet another pre-emptive message to smooth the way for the 380 project to end, it will be considered in time as TCs folly he took so many.
Structurally DXB will have no trouble coping with 115 frames...but if EK wants to survive and evolve they will do their best to get the fleet back to 60-80 as quickly as leasing allows.


For a supposed insider you seem to know very little. EK's plan never was to operate more than 115 frames at a time. The latest A380 order for Emirates is for 50 aircraft out of which 25 are for replacements which will make 115 as the active fleet. It is of course nothing new here when the A380 is considered that many members will make their own interpretations on what has been said regardless of what actually has been said.


Strato, the numbers are largely irrelevant, it doesn't take an insider nor a rocket scientist to understand where the mouth music is leading. Appearances in the Middle East can be decidedly deceiving, I've been at EK since the 310 days so for TC to come out and reiterate his position whilst HRH speaks about changes in the fleet makeup is laying the ground work for a significant change in direction and focus, for me that seems a fairly obvious end to the 380 in any form along with a change in business strategy.
For context consider this, EK have prided themselves on innovation and leading the pack, the fact is from a revenue and hard consistent product perspective they are trailing their competitors and losing ground.
TC is oft quoted but rarely does he repeat specific details.

4 x 380s and 5 x 777's resting this week..."awaiting essential maintenance"
Watch this space, from Costa or anywhere else if you choose.
 
blrsea
Posts: 1950
Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 2:22 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 4:07 pm

jumbojet wrote:
Just take a look at DXB-SEA-DXB. Worse than half empty, both flights are like 75% empty. No airline that counts on their own money to survive would keep both flights let alone one of them.



I have taken this flight around 4 times in last 15 months, including middle of the week, and it was almost full both ways. Only once did I see a few seats in the back empty. I dont know how many days data you are looking at now. May is a bit slow month, but after June 10th, the fares go up pretty much across the board from US due to summer vacation of schools. Fares to India used to be pretty high in summer usually.
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 4:19 pm

Please correct me if I am wrong (as I may be) but I thought that BA was the first airline to receive A380's with 'all' the weight taken out and the new wing (revised twist).Possibly also with an engine PIP..If So Emirates have 20 A380 a/c that could be described as sub optimal.They were all delivered 2011 or earlier.Not old by any stretch of the imagination but I guess these would be the obvious ones to 'retire' when the time comes.i have no idea how many were leased/bought.
As for the 115 working fleet.Yup that was always the plan.But sometimes plans change (sometimes they don't).But one can't help feeling that Emirates had hoped to get more A380 destinations/frequencies into NW Europe but they have been blocked,the same is true of India and China.Now with the US and their 'regional electronics ban'.Add it all up and it may well be that the 115 figure has to be revised down a little -but only they know.
As for load factors.Yes I could say I have flown them twice out of Heathrow and they were rammed.But of course it proves nothing.However their published load factors are industry average so why not leave it at that.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 4:57 pm

Looking at the delivery history, it is very difficult for Airbus to maintain such low production rates going forward.

If one has to believe EK will take and maintain 115, A380 production rate will be 2017-6, '18-12, '19-5, '20-4, '21-3, '22-8, '23-5, '24-11 or it has to run the line at 6/year for next eight years to smooth it out. Either way ball is in Airbus court.

Year__B777, A380
1998 - 1,0
1999 - 2,0
2001 - 1,0
2002 - 3,0
2003 - 0,0
2004 - 0,0
2005 - 10,0
2006 - 12,0
2007 - 11,0
2008 - 12,4
2009 - 17,3
2010 - 3,8
2011 - 12,5
2012 - 22,11
2013 - 11,13
2014 - 14,13
2015 - 11,15
2016 - 16,20
2017 - 12,6(98)
2018 - 12, 12(110)

Year__B777X, A380(net,cumulative)
2019 - 1, 5 (115)
2020 - 1, 4 (115,119)
2021 - 6, 3 (115,122)
2022 - 12, 8 (115,130)
2023 - 12, 5 (115,135)
2024 - 12, 11(115,146)
 
User avatar
BobPatterson
Posts: 3416
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:18 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 5:18 pm

emiratesdriver wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
emiratesdriver wrote:
This statement is yet another pre-emptive message to smooth the way for the 380 project to end, it will be considered in time as TCs folly he took so many.
Structurally DXB will have no trouble coping with 115 frames...but if EK wants to survive and evolve they will do their best to get the fleet back to 60-80 as quickly as leasing allows.


For a supposed insider you seem to know very little. EK's plan never was to operate more than 115 frames at a time. The latest A380 order for Emirates is for 50 aircraft out of which 25 are for replacements which will make 115 as the active fleet. It is of course nothing new here when the A380 is considered that many members will make their own interpretations on what has been said regardless of what actually has been said.


Strato, the numbers are largely irrelevant, it doesn't take an insider nor a rocket scientist to understand where the mouth music is leading. Appearances in the Middle East can be decidedly deceiving, I've been at EK since the 310 days so for TC to come out and reiterate his position whilst HRH speaks about changes in the fleet makeup is laying the ground work for a significant change in direction and focus, for me that seems a fairly obvious end to the 380 in any form along with a change in business strategy.
For context consider this, EK have prided themselves on innovation and leading the pack, the fact is from a revenue and hard consistent product perspective they are trailing their competitors and losing ground.
TC is oft quoted but rarely does he repeat specific details.

4 x 380s and 5 x 777's resting this week..."awaiting essential maintenance"
Watch this space, from Costa or anywhere else if you choose.


Good to see you resurface after (hiding?) for a number of days.

Perhaps you will be good enough to respond to requests by several persons at this EK380 thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1361741&start=50 for a list of the tail numbers "resting, parked, or out of service" on any given date (preferably three different days) so that we may properly evaluate your claims.

There must be a reason why you persist in ignoring such requests.

PS: If you wish, also add a list of the 777s.
 
User avatar
zkojq
Posts: 4937
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 9:36 pm

jumbojet wrote:
fly a good portion of them at way less than capacity

You haven't presented any evidence of this. EK's overall loads aren't too bad considering the capacity that they're adding.

Image
Image

jumbojet wrote:
charge ridiculously low fares

Competitive =/= ridiculuously low and it is well known that softening revenues is a worldwide problem. It affects the US3 and EU3 also and is particularly prevalent in Asia (just ask CX or SQ). In EK's case they've lowered costs over the previous period which has helped them to improve their margins.

jumbojet wrote:
pay your staff competitive wages

A lot of EK pilots would dispute that one. :lol:

Also, you forgot to answer my question as to if you've ever flown EK before?

dtw2hyd wrote:
Now with probably no lessor ready to lease these frames, DAE(may be AWAS) has to run these leases thru their system as a face saving measure.

Unfortunately AWAS is a private equity owned.

How many of EK's A380s does AWAS finance? TBH I wasn't aware of them financing any A380s, EK or otherwise. I could well be wrong on this though.

Clipper101 wrote:
The two additional A380’s Wiki is talking about should be those two A380’s destined for Skymark. I would not be surprised if these should make for the early retirement of oldest two from EK fleet, A6-EDA/B (MSN011 & 013) both delivered 2008

Good point, the oldest few will have a higher OEW than later builds, though EK's eldest A380 is actually A6-EDF (MSN007). I asked an EK FO about this, they confirmed it but pointed out that since the latest A380s have a different crew rest compartment configuration to the rest of the A380-ULR fleet it's hard to make an apples for apples comparison.

As an aside, I flew in A6-EDB two months ago and the cabin was immaculate (though there was a big water leak in the galley just after we took off).

parapente wrote:
Please correct me if I am wrong (as I may be) but I thought that BA was the first airline to receive A380's with 'all' the weight taken out and the new wing (revised twist).Possibly also with an engine PIP.

BA was the first to receive the higher MTOW A380. Not sure if that is or isn't associated with the incremental developments you mention above.
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 4459
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

Tue May 09, 2017 11:40 pm

blrsea wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
Just take a look at DXB-SEA-DXB. Worse than half empty, both flights are like 75% empty. No airline that counts on their own money to survive would keep both flights let alone one of them.



I have taken this flight around 4 times in last 15 months, including middle of the week, and it was almost full both ways. Only once did I see a few seats in the back empty. I dont know how many days data you are looking at now. May is a bit slow month, but after June 10th, the fares go up pretty much across the board from US due to summer vacation of schools. Fares to India used to be pretty high in summer usually.

I concur - the numbers I've seen on the days I am at SEA volunteering do not support jumbojet's statements. Have never seen the flight anywhere near only 25% full. Unless he has some hard evidence, going assume he has an axe to grind with EK and is pulling figures out of thin air

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos