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keesje
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:07 pm

Ozair wrote:
keesje wrote:
I still expect we haven't seen the last of the Rafale in de Canadian context. "NORAD" isn't a magical wall that can never be pulled down into a workable compromise.

This isn't 1983 & the French are on the fence.

Participation of Canadian industry in the Airbus/Dassault next gen stealth fighter can add up to the increasingly succesfull A220 program.

Keesje, the only way a Rafale can enter the competition is if the current competition is scrapped completely and restarted. While that is possible it is highly highly unlikely, the can has been pushed down the road too many times. Dassault withdrew and as per the conditions of the current tender they cannot re-enter.

Even then, the longer the competition is delayed the more likely an F-35 win as the F-35 only gets cheaper and more capable compared to its competitors. Any nation today who banked on FCAS coming in on time or being able to offer the industrial work that is available for the F-35 program is fooling themselves...


The purchase procedure is not stronger than (changing) politics, as we know and have seen in this project also.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Ozair
Posts: 4638
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:28 pm

keesje wrote:
Ozair wrote:
keesje wrote:
I still expect we haven't seen the last of the Rafale in de Canadian context. "NORAD" isn't a magical wall that can never be pulled down into a workable compromise.

This isn't 1983 & the French are on the fence.

Participation of Canadian industry in the Airbus/Dassault next gen stealth fighter can add up to the increasingly succesfull A220 program.

Keesje, the only way a Rafale can enter the competition is if the current competition is scrapped completely and restarted. While that is possible it is highly highly unlikely, the can has been pushed down the road too many times. Dassault withdrew and as per the conditions of the current tender they cannot re-enter.

Even then, the longer the competition is delayed the more likely an F-35 win as the F-35 only gets cheaper and more capable compared to its competitors. Any nation today who banked on FCAS coming in on time or being able to offer the industrial work that is available for the F-35 program is fooling themselves...


The purchase procedure is not stronger than (changing) politics, as we know and have seen in this project also.

How’s that working out for you Keesje?
1. Trudeau says we won’t buy F-35 but the F-35 is now likely the favourite to win the competition.
2. Canada could have easily removed the F-35 from the competition by stating a requirement for two engines, but because it is an open and fair competition it couldn’t. That would have also removed the final remaining Eurocanard.
3. Canada could have politically removed the SH from the competition because of Bombardier issues, but it didn’t and now the SH is clearly the second favourite to win the selection.
4. Because of an MOU signed to participate in the JSF program Canada couldn’t exclude the F-35 due to industry offset clauses. Politically the Trudeau Government could have withdrawn from the JSF partnership, making the F-35 cost potentially higher and therefore giving other aircraft a better chance but they didn’t because the loss of industrial work would have sent a terrible political message.
5. Even if Canada had politically been successful in excluding the F-35, Dassault and Eurofighter would still have withdrawn because they wouldn’t have been able to meet NORAD requirements within a cost structure that was competitive or likely within the budgetary cap for Canada. The only way those airframes were ever going to be competitive is if no US airframe was available for selection. That is another political fail.

Time to wake up to reality Keesje, political issues as TObound has also pointed out are no longer a factor in this competition. In this case yes the purchase procedure has clearly demonstrated it is stronger than changing politics.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1329
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:07 am

Ozair wrote:
Time to wake up to reality Keesje, political issues as TObound has also pointed out are no longer a factor in this competition. In this case yes the purchase procedure has clearly demonstrated it is stronger than changing politics.

At the end of the day, it's still politicians who provide a budget, who sign the contracts, who are the public face of the purchase, and who put their career (as politicians) on the line. There is no automatism. Deciding is not the job of beaurocrats.
On the other hand, the requirements are reviewed by politicians as well. Clearly, the competition favors the F-35. Somebody didn't see the contradiction between that and saying "we won't buy the F-35". Probably a sucessful politician. At least Canada now knows that they got the best offers from all competitors, and has no reason to complain about the price again.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:40 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Ozair wrote:
Time to wake up to reality Keesje, political issues as TObound has also pointed out are no longer a factor in this competition. In this case yes the purchase procedure has clearly demonstrated it is stronger than changing politics.

At the end of the day, it's still politicians who provide a budget, who sign the contracts, who are the public face of the purchase, and who put their career (as politicians) on the line. There is no automatism. Deciding is not the job of beaurocrats.

Deciding is the job of bureaucrats, that is why Governments employ tender evaluation teams full of subject matter experts, and few if any politicians put their careers on the line when it comes to defence purchases. No one remembers the individual politicians who sign for the equipment, especially given it is often years later when the equipment is actually delivered.

mxaxai wrote:
On the other hand, the requirements are reviewed by politicians as well.

No mate, that is most certainly not the case, there isn't a politician in the western world who reviews the requirements. They might read the two page overview but to read requirements documents that are literally hundreds and sometimes thousands of pages is a clearly wrong.

mxaxai wrote:
Clearly, the competition favors the F-35.

LOL, how does the competition favour the F-35? If you mean the competition favours the most capable aircraft then yes you are correct. I'm not sure how that can be a bad thing to want the best aircraft for your military and in this case also the one that comes at the cheapest cost.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1329
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:31 pm

Ozair wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
On the other hand, the requirements are reviewed by politicians as well.

No mate, that is most certainly not the case, there isn't a politician in the western world who reviews the requirements. They might read the two page overview but to read requirements documents that are literally hundreds and sometimes thousands of pages is a clearly wrong.
So why do we have elected politicians if they aren't held responsible for the decisions they make? Politicians are the public face of such transactions, and the only thing a politician cares about is getting reelected. Do you really believe that they can't afford more than five minutes to study what they're spending billions of tax monies on?
Ozair wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
Clearly, the competition favors the F-35.

LOL, how does the competition favour the F-35? If you mean the competition favours the most capable aircraft then yes you are correct. I'm not sure how that can be a bad thing to want the best aircraft for your military and in this case also the one that comes at the cheapest cost.
There is no contradiction here. It's just that a brief look at the specs on Wikipedia, or this forum, would've returned the same results for much less cost. Why say "We won't buy X" and then create a competition where X is the obvious winner?
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:54 am

mxaxai wrote:
So why do we have elected politicians if they aren't held responsible for the decisions they make?

What knowledge or skill do most politicians bring to their portfolios? Do you think most of them, or even a few of them know the first thing about in this case defence? Do you think if they decided to read a thousand page requirements document that they could actually add any value?

Tell me, what experience in the defence sector does Ursula von der Leyen bring? How about Florence Parly? Robert Wallace for the UK at least served as a Captain in the British Army but that hardly qualifies him to review and comment of the requirements for a fighter jet. The Canadian Defence Minister Harjit Saijin served with the Canadian Army as well before moving to policing. His experience in the Army still doesn’t qualify him to make informed comment on a thousand page fighter jet requirements document.

mxaxai wrote:
Politicians are the public face of such transactions, and the only thing a politician cares about is getting reelected. Do you really believe that they can't afford more than five minutes to study what they're spending billions of tax monies on?

Again, Defence departments employ large numbers of highly skilled and knowledgeable staff to make recommendations that a Minister would approve. Not only is a minister busy with public engagements, actually appearing in parliament but also the width and breadth of managing a department that is often larger than most fortune 500 companies. A defence minister does more than just sign acquisition docs, they manage the affairs of current military deployments, changing legislation, are concerned with raise, train and sustain efforts, are involved in inquiries about things going wrong, preparing the next years military budget, promotions etc. To expect them to be all over every aspect of a procurement, even one as large as a fighter jet, is simply not possible.

mxaxai wrote:
Why say "We won't buy X" and then create a competition where X is the obvious winner?

The answer to that is very simple. It is easy to say “we won’t buy X” when you are in opposition trying to win majority government. It is a far different matter to then actually run a competition, or manage the budget etc according to legislation and established Government policy when you are in Government…
 
Ozair
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Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:59 am

A poorly researched article in the F-35 and its visit to Ottawa and how this impacts the Canadian fighter competition.

The high-speed hard sell: why the F-35 is coming to a Canadian air show

The F-35, the warplane Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised not to buy four years ago, touched down in Ottawa on Wednesday — on the eve of a federal election — as one of the leading contenders in the competition to replace the air force's aging CF-18 jet fighters.

The stealth jet's demonstration team will perform this weekend at an air show in Gatineau, Que., giving many of the capital's movers and shakers their first up-close look at an aircraft that has consumed a lot of oxygen in Canadian politics.

During the last election, the Liberals famously (or infamously) promised not to buy the F-35 and said they would opt instead for a cheaper aircraft, using the savings to refit the navy.

The jet's manufacturer, Lockheed Martin — the world's largest defence contractor — is among the bidders in the $19 billion competition launched by the Liberals in July to supply Canada with 88 jets. Lockheed Martin is making its case both behind closed doors and through a marketing campaign that includes billboards throughout the capital region and a heavy social media presence.

...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/f35-ca ... -1.5270600

Interesting to note that Saab don’t consider the tender to be rigged I favour of the F-35,

That led to speculation about whether the other European competitor — Saab — would also drop out. The company's CEO, in an interview with Swedish media a few weeks ago, said his company does not believe the fix is in for the F-35.
"In the last process that was closed, we had the same view, that is, it was very rigged for U.S. F-35," said Hakan Buskhe, who was quoted in July by Dagensindustri (Di), a business and finance publication.
"The countries that have chosen F-35 have had almost the same procurement document. We do not have the same view today, but we have the view that it is an open procurement."

 
YIMBY
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Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:32 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:13 pm

Ozair wrote:


For heaven's sake, in democratic countries the politicians, representing the electorate, have the final say. And should have.

The bureaucrats give the facts, and the politicians evaluate the facts, compare with their values and interests, make compromises and finally decisions. It is not a perfect system as many politicians (if not the most, at least where I live) are inept and untrustable, but it is the very best system tried so far. Who misses a military dictatorship?

Making major decisions of military hardware is never a purely technical issue, never. There are always several social, civil, economic and political aspects beyond the military expertise. In the best cases these are taken into account beforehand, incorporated in the rules given in the RFB, but situations change. Even the desired capability is a political issues as it depends on the mission profiles whose emphases are at least partly political.

The democracy does have a drawback as even honest politicians may make superficial decisions depending partly on whose face they like, who has insulted them and who pays most on their district. And the parliament has a full authority to make even stupid decisions, like changing the rules afterwards. It requires just a simple majority, as it is not a constitutional issue. But there is no significantly better alternative on this planet (details on democracies may vary).
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:07 am

This maybe connected to the current fighter competition:

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/abbotsf ... ring-plant

US firm considering $830 million aircraft manufacturing plant in Lower Mainland
Kenneth Chan
|
Sep 12 2019, 5:35 pm

BC’s Lower Mainland is in the running as a possible site for the development of a new major aircraft manufacturing plant with the potential to employ thousands of people.

In an economic investment and growth update, a report by staff with the City of Abbotsford notes the municipality is being considered by an unnamed US aerospace firm “as a Canadian site” for the new plant.

There are two development options of varying scale; the smaller plant would produce a $125-million investment with 7,000 new jobs, while the large plant would result in an $830-million investment and 10,000 or more jobs.

Such a facility would of course require a very significantly-sized site, but no locations have been publicly identified at this time. The plant would certainly bolster the Fraser Valley’s economy, and likely create a further upward demand in housing.

The report will be reviewed by city council next week, and the next round of engagement is scheduled to occur in January 2020.

Major US aerospace firms include Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Gulfstream Aerospace, and Boom Supersonic.


AFAIK, the only major aerospace company in the region is Cascades Aerospace, which has ties to Lockheed Martin; they are only one of two Lockheed Martin-approved service and heavy maintenance centers for the C-130 Hercules. I can easily see Lockheed Martin expanding their presence in the region due to the ties.
 
Ozair
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Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:18 am

The article clarifies a few facts but also gets a few things wrong.

First the assertion that Airbus, Saab or Dassault had no access to the requirements for the CAN/US system used for NORAD. It would certainly be possible to detail what is required within the tender documents without giving away any classified information, or that the respective bidders could hire staff who have sufficient clearance to access that information and make a determination.

Second that stealth is not useful for the NORAD mission. Stealth is most certainly not simply an offensive strike advantage but plays a big role in OCA and DCA. Being able to detect, track and engage an adversary without being observed remains the most successful A2A tactic and the F-35, with its stealth features and advanced sensors, brings that huge advantage to the NORAD mission.

Will other firms withdraw from fighter jet competition leaving F-35 last plane standing?

Shortly before he retired, Pat Finn, the Department of National Defence’s procurement chief, told this newspaper there was always a risk that some companies would drop out of the future fighter jet competition but that extra efforts had been made to ensure the process was fair. “We’re not getting all kinds of signals that (companies are) losing interest” in bidding, Finn said in an interview July 23.

On Aug. 30, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence and Airbus Defence and Space informed the Canadian government of their decision to withdraw from Canada’s future fighter competition. Airbus had been offering Canada the Eurofighter.

At the time the Canadian Press news service reported the Eurofighter withdrawal was a surprise.

It wasn’t.

...

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national ... e-standing
 
ThePointblank
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Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:23 am

Skies Magazine has this article from Alan Stephenson (Col ret’d) up regarding the CF-18 replacement program:

https://www.skiesmag.com/features/errat ... ment-plan/
 
Ozair
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Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:57 pm

Boeing is still committed to the Canadian competition and has submitted its proposal to meet the security requirements for NORAD Two eyes information.

Boeing confirms it is taking part in Canada’s future fighter jet competition

Boeing officials tell Defence Watch that the company will indeed be bidding on Canada’s future fighter jet program.

The firm will offer the Super Hornet for the Royal Canadian Air Force.

There had been questions in the defence and aerospace industry about whether Boeing would proceed in the competition as concerns mount the procurement is rigged towards the F-35.

But a Boeing official told Defence Watch on Thursday that the company is “100 per cent in.”

The firm has submitted to the federal government the required information that outlines how it will meet various security requirements so the aircraft can operate within the U.S.-Canadian system.

In July Boeing released a statement that it was still participating in the process but it had yet to make any final decisions on whether to take part in the Canadian competition. “We look forward to continuing to provide comments, reviewing the final RFP, and determining next steps at that time,” Boeing noted at the time.

...

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national ... ompetition
 
strfyr51
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:43 am

johns624 wrote:
Canada just keeps kicking the can down the road, both with the fighters and the navy frigates.

Canada KNOW good and Damn Well that if they get in a Scrape? The USA will be there in a flash either with the TFW from Alaska or the wings near the Canadian Border including McChord ,and across the US North. No way in Hell the US would Let Canada be in a Jam and they KNOW it !! And that's With or without Trump!!
 
stratable
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:22 pm

Tried to skim through this thread and couldn't find anything on it. Any idea why the F15X is not in the mix?
A313 319 320 321 332 333 343 359 Q100/300/400 B734 738 742 744 744M 752 753 763ER 772 77E 77W 787-8/-9 CRJ900 CS300 ERJ-145
 
Ozair
Posts: 4638
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:20 pm

stratable wrote:
Tried to skim through this thread and couldn't find anything on it. Any idea why the F15X is not in the mix?

Same reason Canada rejected it in the early 80s, it is too costly for them to acquire and operate. Boeing had the option to offer an F-15 derivative, the X is really a very new development compared to how long this competition has been going on, but with the RCAF operating the classic Hornet it makes far more sense to offer the SH.

Boeing hasn't offered the F-15X, or any F-15 derivative, to any of the other competitions going on or just completed, for example Finland, Switzerland, India, Belgium, Japan (which was an F-15 operator but was offered the SH in 2011) etc except for South Korea. Where it has won is sole source selection prestige victories, such as Qatar or with existing operators like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Boeing and global militaries don't see a long term future in the F-15, Boeing at least does with the SH. Maybe now the development and likely operation by the USAF of the X changes that but I doubt it.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:21 am

Canada won’t be conducting a fly-off of the three remaining competitors for its fighter competition. If they wanted they could probably seek some information from other operators on how the aircraft perform in cold weather conditions but Canada has a pretty good awareness of the conditions they will operate in and would likely only confirm what they already know.

Unlike Finland, Canada nixes cold-weather tests, fly-off among competing fighter jets

Canada won’t conduct a fly-off between fighter jets competing to become the country’s new warplane nor conduct testing to see how such aircraft perform under cold weather conditions.

The decision not to proceed with such tests under Canada’s $19-billion future fighter procurement program stands in contrast to Finland, which is considering the same aircraft as Canada, for its new jet fleet. Each competing aerospace company is required to provide Finland with two aircraft to test at low temperatures and be evaluated in real world operating conditions.

Public Services and Procurement Canada has confirmed that Canada will not do any fly-offs among competing jet or tests for cold-weather operations like Finland has underway.

“We do not have plans for an exercise of this nature,” stated department spokeswoman Stéfanie Hamel.

Finland and Canada are considering the Boeing Super Hornet, Lockheed Martin F-35 and Saab Gripen. The Finnish Air Force is also testing the Dassault Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon, both of which pulled out of the Canadian competition because of worries the process was rigged to favour the F-35.

Finland hopes to buy 64 aircraft. Canada will purchase 88 aircraft.

Canadian aerospace industry representatives say the competing companies as well as allied air forces could provide Canada with results from tests they have conducted on the competing aircraft.

Finland could have taken the same route but its procurement staff want to ensure the country is getting value for money since the project will cost around $14 billion.

...

https://www.saltwire.com/news/canada/un ... ts-398359/
 
ThePointblank
Posts: 3306
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:39 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:29 am

More money being thrown at the existing fleet of CF-18's to keep them operational:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fighte ... -1.5426860

The federal government is planning to invest hundreds of millions of dollars more to ensure Canada's aging CF-18s can still fight while the country waits for replacement jets, which were originally expected years ago.

The extra money comes after the federal auditor general warned in late 2018 that Canada's fighter jets risked being outmatched by more advanced adversaries due to a lack of combat upgrades since 2008 and will result in new weapons, sensors and defensive systems for the fleet.

Royal Canadian Air Force commander Lt.-Gen. Al Meinzinger estimated the added cost will be around $800 million, which is on top of the $3 billion the government has already set aside to extend the lives of the CF-18s and purchase 18 secondhand fighter jets from Australia.

"Canada has a history of upgrading their fighter aircraft," Meinzinger said in a recent interview with The Canadian Press. "It's a consequence of the fact that over time, threats ... advance as technology advances."

Thirty-six out of the air force's 76 CF-18s and 18 soon-to-be-delivered secondhand Australian F-18s will receive the full suite of upgrades.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:44 am

Probably no other reason for the delay other than typical Government timeframes but have a sneaking suspicion that this delay is related to the submission by Saab for the Gripen. Potentially they are trying to keep the Gripen in the competition but it may struggle to meet the security and interoperability requirements and therefore will likely not submit a final bid.

Fighter jet competitors still wait to hear if they meet Canada’s interoperability requirements

Firms competing in Canada’s future fighter jet program have not yet heard back from the federal government on the security and interoperability requirements documentation they filed at the beginning of October as a prelude to submit their bids.

The companies submitted the paperwork in which they show how they can meet Canada’s requirements in the area of security and interoperability. Public Services and Procurement Canada was supposed to inform the firms whether or not they met the criteria; without that approval submitting a bid for the $19 billion fighter jet program is pretty much a waste of time.

Some aerospace industry officials are questioning why there is a delay considering bids are due at the end of March. Their argument is that the security requirements/interoperability documents are pretty straight forward so they wonder why it has taken more than three months so far for PSPC to review the material. Others have questioned whether the delay means that the lone European fighter jet in the competition, the Gripen, might be having trouble meeting the requirements which are geared towards interoperability/security requirements with the U.S.

But PSPC spokeswoman Michèle LaRose tells Defence Watch that feedback for the aerospace firms is coming. It is expected by the end of this month.

“The feedback provided to suppliers is intended to help them respond to the Request for Proposals with offers that meet Canada’s security requirements,” she noted in an email.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national ... quirements
 
Ozair
Posts: 4638
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:58 pm

The RCAF have used the opportunity to fly back an ex RAAF Hornet after using their C-17 to deliver supplies to assist Australian Firefighting efforts. Obviously the picture is from the Canadian Base where the jet is being unloaded, not too much snow in Australia right now…
C-17 Brings Home F-18

The RCAF made the most of its show of support for the Australian firefighting effort last month. The C-17 transport that carried supplies to the southern hemisphere came back with reinforcements for the RCAF. Tucked in the cavernous cargo hold for the return trip was one of the 25 retired Royal Australian Air Force F-18s the RCAF has purchased to shore up its fighter forces while it waits for new equipment. The RCAF posted images of a crew unloading the fighter on Friday.

The RCAF paid $90 million for the 25 Hornets but only 18 will be flown. The others will be used for parts. The RAAF has phased out its F-18s as it converts fighter squadrons to the F-35. Canada is years away from flying a new fighter. The F-35, F/A-18 Super Hornet and Saab Gripen are competing to become Canada’s next frontline fighter.

https://canadianaviator.com/c-17-brings-home-f-18/

Image
 
SuperiorPilotMe
Posts: 106
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:23 pm

What do you mean no snow in Australia? It’s only 40 degrees!

Of course that’s not snow, that’s ash from bush fires.
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman

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