Maybe we are seeing a rationalizing of the M3, to M1 1/2 (EK and somewhat QR) . For some time, many posters here have stated watch out for Turkey, and with the new airport coming online we will see. It may spur the Dubai to move its mega airport plans up some. And I agree, I think we will start seeing some WB deferrals for Airbus and Boeing from QR and Ethiad.[/quote]
I don't think QR will defer deliveries as there ego will stop them, especially with the ongoing crisis with the neighbors. QR won't show that they are in a weak position.[/quote]
Very interesting post.
I agree the ME3 are due for a correction. The 787 and A350 are allowing bypass. There is no need for four hubs so close to each other. Istanbul has high O&D. Dubai has decent O&D by enabling an environment conducive to international business. But Qatar and Abu Dhabi didn't ask 'how do we need to change to attract business.'. Dubai built golf courses, zoned úchurches/synagogues, encouraged foreign supper market chains, allowed the sale of alcohol, allowed their airport to be a wayport early, and saw the opportunity.
The reality is EY never achieved the same network. Nor did QR. In this case, EY is giving up freighters when rates are elevated. That tells me the have a lack of network. The 77W is a modern combined. Since EK has scale, they can take freight (say food) from Europe and distribute through Asia (heck, there are been threads on racing cars). EY just doesn't have the scale.
Perhaps the flower warehouse at DXB is a better example. Tim Clark's team found a niche unfilled for perishable goods. That grew to the regional pharmaceutical distribution as the cold transport processes we're already in place.
Here on a.net there is a lot of dismissal of first mover advantage. Yes, many first movers are overcome, but only if they do not grow quickly. When was the last EK isn't growing fast enough thread?
Ironically, EK stopped growing quick at just the right time as DXB is limited stock times people (and thus accompanying cargo below deck), wanted to fly. Dubai didn't have the funds to fast track DWC either.
So EY and QR grew when EK was constrained and it should have been more profitable. Instead both are bleeding 'investment money' while EK was forced to conserve cash for DWC.
Instead of fast DWC construction, EK was spared dire straights (by not spending on DWC) when oil prices plumetted while EY and QR over committed.
Sorry for the long post, but quirks on expansion timing and oil prices played an interesting hand to Saudia, EK, EY, QR, and even the Indian airlines.
Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good and that wasn't either for EY.
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