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b777900
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:52 pm

Any update from AA on expansion out of PHX to ASIA? I see AA has cut some service out of ORD but have not heard on PHX growth?
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FA9295
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:39 pm

I heard at one point that PHX-NRT had a possibility of commencing, but IDK much beyond that...
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:05 pm

It might be JAL rather than AA to operate NRT-PHX, and I would bet on JAL doing NRT-PHL before AA but its anyone's guess if and when.
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Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
KICT
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:25 am

Is this a recent rumor? I don't think nonstop to Asia had been discussed since US looked at purchasing the ex-Air Canada A340-500s.
People are saying. Believe me.
 
Cointrin330
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:35 am

Very unlikely. AA's TPAC focus is on building out LAX further as a gateway alongside DFW. I see JAL starting PHX-NRT on the 787-8 but it is a long shot.
 
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b777900
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:50 pm

AWW I see I thought they were in talks to expand to NRT so Jal will go first any ideas when>?
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LAXdude1023
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:53 pm

b777900 wrote:
AWW I see I thought they were in talks to expand to NRT so Jal will go first any ideas when>?


My question would be why? JAL and AA have a joint venture and AA offers a great deal of Asia service from LAX which is geographically positioned nicely to serve PHX.

You could probably fill a plane 3x weekly, but I seriously question the fare premiums PHX could provide.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
MO11
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:55 pm

On the first day that Sky Harbor records a 6-inch snowfall....
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:59 pm

A little bit off topic but could a passenger fly on one ticket from PHX to HNL on AA and then HNL to Japan on JL in lieu of flying AA PHX to LAX to Japan? I am too lazy tonight to try this routing on the AA site...LOL.
 
nmdrdh787
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:02 pm

so to put some thought into this.

Two years ago now (I believe), PHX put out an RFP looking for an Air Services Consultant that was focused on international expansion, specifically Asia. I wonder who got it and if they are making any progress.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:20 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
A little bit off topic but could a passenger fly on one ticket from PHX to HNL on AA and then HNL to Japan on JL in lieu of flying AA PHX to LAX to Japan? I am too lazy tonight to try this routing on the AA site...LOL.


Sure, if you want a broken fare, and to fly 900 miles out of the way.
 
910A
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:24 pm

b777900 wrote:
Any one have any updates on ASIA expansion for AA out of PHX?

I haven't hear anything since about 2011. DL agreed to give US a slot at NRT in exchange for some slots at LGA or was it DCA? US was going to operate a 332 from PHX, but in the end US decided to accept a slot to GIG, which they operated a 762 out of CLT. Didn't work out.
 
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:35 pm

b777900 wrote:
Any update from AA on expansion out of PHX to ASIA? I see AA has cut some service out of ORD but have not heard on PHX growth?

No, because it's not happening.

FA9295 wrote:
I heard at one point that PHX-NRT had a possibility of commencing, but IDK much beyond that...

That was several years ago, and prior to the merger. US floated plans for NRT when the A359 arrived. But then the merger happened, and the A359s aren't coming, so it's back to square one. Before that, there was briefly a crazy idea of acquiring a couple of A346s to serve PEK, but fortunately rational thought took over. The best PHX can hope for is LHR on AA metal as a second daily to BA service.

MO11 wrote:
On the first day that Sky Harbor records a 6-inch snowfall....

Pretty much! The phrase "A snowball's chance in hell" has never been more applicable :lol:
 
flyguy84
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:45 pm

FA9295 wrote:
I heard at one point that PHX-NRT had a possibility of commencing, but IDK much beyond that...

"I heard" = "I read on Airliners.net"
SFO
 
flyguy84
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:47 pm

TUSDawg23 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
b777900 wrote:
AWW I see I thought they were in talks to expand to NRT so Jal will go first any ideas when>?


My question would be why? JAL and AA have a joint venture and AA offers a great deal of Asia service from LAX which is geographically positioned nicely to serve PHX.

You could probably fill a plane 3x weekly, but I seriously question the fare premiums PHX could provide.


LAS is a low-yield market and they don't seem to have a problem getting service to places like ICN and PEK. PHX has a strong business market year round, has the Grand Canyon and Sedona just a few hours drive away, and has tons of resorts and things to do. the Japanese love to travel and I don't see why this can't work, at the very least as a seasonal route a la what Condor is doing with PHX-FRA.


Most foreigners who visit the Grand Canyon fly into LAS... they do it as a combined trip.
SFO
 
TUSDawg23
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:47 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
b777900 wrote:
AWW I see I thought they were in talks to expand to NRT so Jal will go first any ideas when>?


My question would be why? JAL and AA have a joint venture and AA offers a great deal of Asia service from LAX which is geographically positioned nicely to serve PHX.

You could probably fill a plane 3x weekly, but I seriously question the fare premiums PHX could provide.


LAS is a low-yield market and they don't seem to have a problem getting service to places like ICN and PEK. PHX has a strong business market year round, has the Grand Canyon and Sedona just a few hours drive away, and has tons of resorts and things to do. the Japanese love to travel and I don't see why this can't work, at the very least as a seasonal route a la what Condor is doing with PHX-FRA.
 
910A
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:48 pm

atcsundevil wrote:

FA9295 wrote:
I heard at one point that PHX-NRT had a possibility of commencing, but IDK much beyond that...

That was several years ago, and prior to the merger. US floated plans for NRT when the A359 arrived. But then the merger happened, and the A359s aren't coming, so it's back to square one. Before that, there was briefly a crazy idea of acquiring a couple of A346s to serve PEK, but fortunately rational thought took over. The best PHX can hope for is LHR on AA metal as a second daily to BA service.


ATC couple of issues here, Scott Kirby remember him, anyways he spoke in front of us at a Greater Phoenix Economic Council gathering (2009-2010ish), the plan was FRA in 2011 and NRT in 2012. (I guessing that they delayed part of the 332 order which played a factor). It wasn't a 346 but they were trying to obtain two 345 from AC or TG. TG was asking the moon for their planes. The business and state government community was putting pressure for US to start service to Asia and Europe in hopes of improving the economy in Phoenix.
 
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FA9295
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:09 am

flyguy84 wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
I heard at one point that PHX-NRT had a possibility of commencing, but IDK much beyond that...

"I heard" = "I read on Airliners.net"

Well yeah, that's kind of what I meant there. Now, by no means at all did I say that what "I heard" was credible... ;)
 
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:10 am

910A wrote:
ATC couple of issues here, Scott Kirby remember him, anyways he spoke in front of us at a Greater Phoenix Economic Council gathering (2009-2010ish), the plan was FRA in 2011 and NRT in 2012. (I guessing that they delayed part of the 332 order which played a factor). It wasn't a 346 but they were trying to obtain two 345 from AC or TG. TG was asking the moon for their planes. The business and state government community was putting pressure for US to start service to Asia and Europe in hopes of improving the economy in Phoenix.

I remember FRA being discussed, but even that would have been more probable than NRT, and now it's virtually off the table. Regardless of whatever comments were made by Kirby or Parker, US then and AA now has made no tangible move towards long haul service. People have floated grandiose ideas on these forums for years about intl service from PHX, and none of it has even come close to fruition. Heck, EK even expressed interest to the Phoenix Economic Council about five or six years ago, and that's about as likely to happen.

Fact is, PHX loses out due to a number of factors: low yields, lack of significant international business ties, a hub airline not committed to anything outside of domestic service, proximity to LAX, and the fact that any European or Asian service is 10-12+ hours. Long flights plus low yields don't make money. People will continue with the grandiose ideas, but the best PHX can hope for is increased service to LHR and an increase from Condor. Anything else is wishful thinking.
 
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FA9295
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:24 am

atcsundevil wrote:
910A wrote:
ATC couple of issues here, Scott Kirby remember him, anyways he spoke in front of us at a Greater Phoenix Economic Council gathering (2009-2010ish), the plan was FRA in 2011 and NRT in 2012. (I guessing that they delayed part of the 332 order which played a factor). It wasn't a 346 but they were trying to obtain two 345 from AC or TG. TG was asking the moon for their planes. The business and state government community was putting pressure for US to start service to Asia and Europe in hopes of improving the economy in Phoenix.

I remember FRA being discussed, but even that would have been more probable than NRT, and now it's virtually off the table. Regardless of whatever comments were made by Kirby or Parker, US then and AA now has made no tangible move towards long haul service. People have floated grandiose ideas on these forums for years about intl service from PHX, and none of it has even come close to fruition. Heck, EK even expressed interest to the Phoenix Economic Council about five or six years ago, and that's about as likely to happen.

Fact is, PHX loses out due to a number of factors: low yields, lack of significant international business ties, a hub airline not committed to anything outside of domestic service, proximity to LAX, and the fact that any European or Asian service is 10-12+ hours. Long flights plus low yields don't make money. People will continue with the grandiose ideas, but the best PHX can hope for is increased service to LHR and an increase from Condor. Anything else is wishful thinking.

To be perfectly honest, I'm kind of surprised that AA's PHX hub is doing as well as it is today (maybe it isn't doing well, but they still have expanded service on at least some sustainable level). For pretty much an "all-domestic hub" (including Canada and Mexico), and the proximity of the airport to LAX, it seems like PHX has gotten pretty lucky. I would have figured that the majority of service there would have been consolidated to LAX (although LAX is a much more competitive environment for obvious reasons).

On the topic of long-haul ops, I agree that it'll very likely just stay as BA to LHR and seasonal DE to FRA. As I said earlier, the only TPAC/Asia flight out of PHX that I could see would be to NRT, which would more likely be on JAL, rather than AA. I'm not from the Phoenix area, and I haven't traveled through Sky Harbor for quite awhile, but it seems like flowing the PHX-originating traffic to/from Asia through LAX is the right way for AA to go.
 
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:35 am

atcsundevil wrote:
910A wrote:
Fact is, PHX loses out due to a number of factors: low yields, lack of significant international business ties, a hub airline not committed to anything outside of domestic service, proximity to LAX, and the fact that any European or Asian service is 10-12+ hours. Long flights plus low yields don't make money.


I agree that a carrier like AA or JL would struggle making this route work year round if they base it on high yield and connecting traffic. But I do believe that if NRT were to get a low cost longhaul carrier, the economics could definitely make sense. Someone like a Scoot or AirAsia X.

I dispute the claim that long flights and low yields can't make money. I think traditional carriers are not structured that way to make money, but newer entrants in the market with much lower labor and operating costs are making a compelling case that you can if you can get a lot of butts in the seats and generate sufficient ancillary revenues.
 
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:37 am

atcsundevil wrote:
b777900 wrote:
Any update from AA on expansion out of PHX to ASIA? I see AA has cut some service out of ORD but have not heard on PHX growth?

No, because it's not happening.

FA9295 wrote:
I heard at one point that PHX-NRT had a possibility of commencing, but IDK much beyond that...

That was several years ago, and prior to the merger. US floated plans for NRT when the A359 arrived. But then the merger happened, and the A359s aren't coming, so it's back to square one. Before that, there was briefly a crazy idea of acquiring a couple of A346s to serve PEK, but fortunately rational thought took over. The best PHX can hope for is LHR on AA metal as a second daily to BA service.

MO11 wrote:
On the first day that Sky Harbor records a 6-inch snowfall....

Pretty much! The phrase "A snowball's chance in hell" has never been more applicable :lol:

Previous US plans (approved Authority) for both NRT (767) and PEK (343) were from PHL. Here's a bit of a summary: viewtopic.php?t=702183
HP did fly from PHX to Nagoya for a little over a year (they could not get Tokyo or Osaka authority), with a stop in HNL. The route was not successful.
 
910A
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:58 am

acentauri wrote:
Previous US plans (approved Authority) for both NRT (767) and PEK (343) were from PHL. Here's a bit of a summary: viewtopic.php?t=702183
HP did fly from PHX to Nagoya for a little over a year (they could not get Tokyo or Osaka authority), with a stop in HNL. The route was not successful.


Here is an article from back in 2012. http://www.philly.com/philly/business/2 ... ional.html

I couldn't imagine US being competitive to NRT using an old 762ER. When US got the authority in 2007 to PEK there was very few used 343. If I remember right AirAsiaX, Swiss and Tam took all eleven of AC's 343.
 
hz747300
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:28 am

Jetstar Japan, as long as I could earn Asia Miles, that is fine...
Keep on truckin'...
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:16 pm

TUSDawg23 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
b777900 wrote:
AWW I see I thought they were in talks to expand to NRT so Jal will go first any ideas when>?


My question would be why? JAL and AA have a joint venture and AA offers a great deal of Asia service from LAX which is geographically positioned nicely to serve PHX.

You could probably fill a plane 3x weekly, but I seriously question the fare premiums PHX could provide.


LAS is a low-yield market and they don't seem to have a problem getting service to places like ICN and PEK. PHX has a strong business market year round, has the Grand Canyon and Sedona just a few hours drive away, and has tons of resorts and things to do. the Japanese love to travel and I don't see why this can't work, at the very least as a seasonal route a la what Condor is doing with PHX-FRA.


Not the same.

LAS has about 5 million international O&D passengers. PHX has about 1.8 million and about half of those come from Mexico and Canada.

When you reach a critical mass like LAS has, its much easier to make it work.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:29 pm

Sorry, but I can't see PHX being a gateway to Asia for the foreseeable future.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
ScottB
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:55 pm

TUSDawg23 wrote:
LAS is a low-yield market and they don't seem to have a problem getting service to places like ICN and PEK.


LAS isn't necessarily as low-yielding as you think. If you're from outside the U.S. and able to drop tens of thousands at one of the casinos, you can probably afford business class and a suite at one of the hotels. Obviously PHX can attract some of the same demographic with Scottsdale, Sedona, and golf, but the size of the market for LAS is much larger and Phoenix doesn't command the same notoriety. There's quite a bit more competition for warm weather & golf; not so much for the combination of gaming & entertainment that Vega$ offers.

acentauri wrote:
HP did fly from PHX to Nagoya for a little over a year (they could not get Tokyo or Osaka authority), with a stop in HNL. The route was not successful.


Calling HP's PHX-HNL-NGO "not successful" is like calling Hurricane Katrina a bit of high wind and minor flooding. It was more like a colossal dumpster fire and was a key reason America West filed for bankruptcy in mid-1991.

atcsundevil wrote:
PHX loses out due to a number of factors: low yields, lack of significant international business ties, a hub airline not committed to anything outside of domestic service, proximity to LAX, and the fact that any European or Asian service is 10-12+ hours.


In the end, PHX doesn't offer significant/logical connectivity for Europe or Asia flying in the AA network that isn't served as well or better via LAX, DFW, or ORD. Non-stops from PHX will only make sense if there is significant O&D and they don't steal traffic from the aforementioned hubs.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:56 pm

Another thing that stands in the way of flights to and from Asia is that AA does not have any flights to South America that travelers from Asia can connect to, unlike DFW and LAX.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:02 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
TUSDawg23 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

My question would be why? JAL and AA have a joint venture and AA offers a great deal of Asia service from LAX which is geographically positioned nicely to serve PHX.

You could probably fill a plane 3x weekly, but I seriously question the fare premiums PHX could provide.


LAS is a low-yield market and they don't seem to have a problem getting service to places like ICN and PEK. PHX has a strong business market year round, has the Grand Canyon and Sedona just a few hours drive away, and has tons of resorts and things to do. the Japanese love to travel and I don't see why this can't work, at the very least as a seasonal route a la what Condor is doing with PHX-FRA.


Not the same.

LAS has about 5 million international O&D passengers. PHX has about 1.8 million and about half of those come from Mexico and Canada.

When you reach a critical mass like LAS has, its much easier to make it work.


If I was living overseas and planning a trip to the United States I would much rather visit Las Vegas than Phoenix hands down.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:57 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
TUSDawg23 wrote:

LAS is a low-yield market and they don't seem to have a problem getting service to places like ICN and PEK. PHX has a strong business market year round, has the Grand Canyon and Sedona just a few hours drive away, and has tons of resorts and things to do. the Japanese love to travel and I don't see why this can't work, at the very least as a seasonal route a la what Condor is doing with PHX-FRA.


Not the same.

LAS has about 5 million international O&D passengers. PHX has about 1.8 million and about half of those come from Mexico and Canada.

When you reach a critical mass like LAS has, its much easier to make it work.


If I was living overseas and planning a trip to the United States I would much rather visit Las Vegas than Phoenix hands down.


I wouldn't. There are very few places in the world I find less appealing than Las Vegas. What a s**t hole. LAS is good for one thing only - getting out of town as fast as possible and getting to fine places like Death Valley, Zion National Park, or the north rim of the Grand Canyon.

PHX is the gateway to the more popular south rim of the Grand Canyon and places like Sedona. Plus, in general there is a lot more to do on Arizona than Nevada for Tourism - other than gambling in a casino.

If I had the choice between PHX and Arizona vs LAS, it would be an easy choice. PHX hands down.
 
phxsanslcpdx
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:16 pm

If some of the rosier growth projections hold true (more than 12 million people in the Phoenix-Tucson area by 2050, for example: http://www.america2050.org/arizona_sun_corridor.html), I think the area is likely to see nonstop service to Asia. But I don't think it's coming within the next couple years.

BoeingGuy wrote:
If I had the choice between PHX and Arizona vs LAS, it would be an easy choice. PHX hands down.


There are plenty of folks who feel the same way. But still, I think everyone traveling internationally for leisure to either market does have that choice now... and far more choose to visit LAS.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:30 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
dfwjim1 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

Not the same.

LAS has about 5 million international O&D passengers. PHX has about 1.8 million and about half of those come from Mexico and Canada.

When you reach a critical mass like LAS has, its much easier to make it work.


If I was living overseas and planning a trip to the United States I would much rather visit Las Vegas than Phoenix hands down.


I wouldn't. There are very few places in the world I find less appealing than Las Vegas. What a s**t hole. LAS is good for one thing only - getting out of town as fast as possible and getting to fine places like Death Valley, Zion National Park, or the north rim of the Grand Canyon.

PHX is the gateway to the more popular south rim of the Grand Canyon and places like Sedona. Plus, in general there is a lot more to do on Arizona than Nevada for Tourism - other than gambling in a casino.

If I had the choice between PHX and Arizona vs LAS, it would be an easy choice. PHX hands down.


Thats fine that you feel that way. My wifes whole family lives in Vegas and I personally hate the place.

That said, the overwhelming majority of people internationally disagree with you.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
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compensateme
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:37 pm

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
If some of the rosier growth projections hold true (more than 12 million people in the Phoenix-Tucson area by 2050, for example: http://www.america2050.org/arizona_sun_corridor.html), I think the area is likely to see nonstop service to Asia. But I don't think it's coming within the next couple years.


Population is loosely correlated to air service. Compare the level of air service of Singapore to Mexico, for example. What matters is the number of seats purchased up front.

Also, I’d take any long term population projection with a grain of salt. In the late 1960s, then Midwest was projected to double in population by 2000; instead, the population has remained stagnant for roughly 50 years. While advances in technology (water, a/c, etc.) have lead to people moving toward warmer, sunnier areas, the strain on resources and swelling real estate market will likely become detriments to population growth in the future.
Last edited by compensateme on Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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spinotter
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:40 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
dfwjim1 wrote:

If I was living overseas and planning a trip to the United States I would much rather visit Las Vegas than Phoenix hands down.


I wouldn't. There are very few places in the world I find less appealing than Las Vegas. What a s**t hole. LAS is good for one thing only - getting out of town as fast as possible and getting to fine places like Death Valley, Zion National Park, or the north rim of the Grand Canyon.

PHX is the gateway to the more popular south rim of the Grand Canyon and places like Sedona. Plus, in general there is a lot more to do on Arizona than Nevada for Tourism - other than gambling in a casino.

If I had the choice between PHX and Arizona vs LAS, it would be an easy choice. PHX hands down.


Thats fine that you feel that way. My wifes whole family lives in Vegas and I personally hate the place.

That said, the overwhelming majority of people internationally disagree with you.


Then the overwhelming majority of people internationally are challenged intellectually and aestetically if they prefer a desert sewer like Las Vegas.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:44 pm

PHX also suffers from the fact that OW is almost singularly a one and a half hub show in Europe. There's LHR.....and MAD-ish, which is a giant fall off. Star has FRA, MUC, and ZRH, and Skyteam has AMS and CDG.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:11 pm

spinotter wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

I wouldn't. There are very few places in the world I find less appealing than Las Vegas. What a s**t hole. LAS is good for one thing only - getting out of town as fast as possible and getting to fine places like Death Valley, Zion National Park, or the north rim of the Grand Canyon.

PHX is the gateway to the more popular south rim of the Grand Canyon and places like Sedona. Plus, in general there is a lot more to do on Arizona than Nevada for Tourism - other than gambling in a casino.

If I had the choice between PHX and Arizona vs LAS, it would be an easy choice. PHX hands down.


Thats fine that you feel that way. My wifes whole family lives in Vegas and I personally hate the place.

That said, the overwhelming majority of people internationally disagree with you.


Then the overwhelming majority of people internationally are challenged intellectually and aestetically if they prefer a desert sewer like Las Vegas.


Which desert sewer are we talking about? Phoenix or Vegas?
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
grbauc
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:15 am

atcsundevil wrote:
910A wrote:

Fact is, PHX loses out due to a number of factors: low yields, lack of significant international business ties, a hub airline not committed to anything outside of domestic service, proximity to LAX, and the fact that any European or Asian service is 10-12+ hours. Long flights plus low yields don't make money. People will continue with the grandiose ideas, but the best PHX can hope for is increased service to LHR and an increase from Condor. Anything else is wishful thinking.



AA proximity to LAX and the many AA options there makes PHX international not necessary. When and if international Flying becomes more profitable maybe we'll see some PHX routes. I always Thought HP/US and Now AA should Use PHX for some Mexico, Central America flying.
 
Byrdluvs747
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:36 am

GSP psgr wrote:
PHX also suffers from the fact that OW is almost singularly a one and a half hub show in Europe. There's LHR.....and MAD-ish,....


I've always wondered if there's enough traffic to support PHX-MAD, or would that cannibalize any PHX-LHR-MAD traffic.
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cathay747
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:45 pm

As well said above by referring to snowfall, it ain't gonna happen until PHX could generate enough O&D traffic to support it, which it currently can't. And connecting traffic couldn't make up such a huge shortfall in O&D due to the fact that you can connect from virtually anywhere on the AA domestic network to NRT via either DFW, ORD or LAX (OK, except maybe FLG & YUM...and how many PDEW from either point to NRT???). A JL 788 might get decent loads in Y at say only a 3x/week op., but there wouldn't be enough, if any, premium traffic to fill J to make the route profitable. Gotta have that premium traffic.
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cathay747
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:54 pm

Byrdluvs747 wrote:
GSP psgr wrote:
PHX also suffers from the fact that OW is almost singularly a one and a half hub show in Europe. There's LHR.....and MAD-ish,....


I've always wondered if there's enough traffic to support PHX-MAD, or would that cannibalize any PHX-LHR-MAD traffic.


Yes it would, but that wouldn't be the main issue. Losing LHR-MAD connecting traffic would not even make BA blink. The issue would be is that you can connect to WAY MORE places from LHR than from MAD, so there's just no need for it, and being able to connect into BA's much bigger global network at LHR is what makes the PHX-LHR route viable. And to switch PHX from BA over LHR to IB over MAD would be suicidal, again due to loss of lots of beyond-hub connecting traffic.
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flyfresno
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:41 pm

I look to SAN more than LAS as an example of how I’m a bit surprised that PHX doesn’t have a NRT nonstop. PHX has several advantages over SAN (or so it seems), but SAN has a couple reasons why it should have service “over” PHX as well:

1) Phoenix metro has about a million more people than San Diego.
2) PHX has about double the enplanements of SAN.
3) PHX is Oneworld hub. SAN is not.
4) SAN might have a larger “catchment area” with (otherwise) no flights to NRT/HND if you include Southern parts of the OC and Inland Empire (you could include Tijuana in this, although passengers from there are likely minimal and they already have flights to two cities in Asia).
5) SAN might have more business and cultural ties to Japan (although I’m not sure about this).
6) PHX doesn’t offer many connection “advantages” over LAX/DFW (but people in Yuma and Flagstaff would be happy!)

Anyway, I see SAN as a better comparison than LAS. I’m not arguing that NRT is a slam dunk for PHX (although I could see it, especially on a JAL 787).
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:08 pm

flyfresno wrote:
I look to SAN more than LAS as an example of how I’m a bit surprised that PHX doesn’t have a NRT nonstop. PHX has several advantages over SAN (or so it seems), but SAN has a couple reasons why it should have service “over” PHX as well:

1) Phoenix metro has about a million more people than San Diego.
2) PHX has about double the enplanements of SAN.
3) PHX is Oneworld hub. SAN is not.
4) SAN might have a larger “catchment area” with (otherwise) no flights to NRT/HND if you include Southern parts of the OC and Inland Empire (you could include Tijuana in this, although passengers from there are likely minimal and they already have flights to two cities in Asia).
5) SAN might have more business and cultural ties to Japan (although I’m not sure about this).
6) PHX doesn’t offer many connection “advantages” over LAX/DFW (but people in Yuma and Flagstaff would be happy!)

Anyway, I see SAN as a better comparison than LAS. I’m not arguing that NRT is a slam dunk for PHX (although I could see it, especially on a JAL 787).


MSA is a terrible way to determine route viability though. San Diego pulls from itself and parts of Orange County which generate way more demand to Asia than Phoenix.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
Adipocere
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:40 pm

PHX has many disadvantages economically, culturally and geographically. Until it can grow up a notch or two On those parameters, I don’t see major international expansion there.

From an economy perspective, even though PHX boasts 5 million people - about 2 million of them are recent arrivals from Mexico and areas south of the border. I wouldn’t put them on the list for major international O&D travel beyond the areas of MEX already connected to PHX. Then there are close to 2 million Midwestern retirees and Canadian snowbirds who are in PHX looking for cheap housing and cheap golf while awaiting the inevitable. That leaves about a million or so Paradise Valley/ Scottsdale/ Biltmore types - the cream of that crop already has their own private jet parked on call at Deer Valley and have no use for commercial airlines. So the actionable market is quite limited in PHX which unfortunately also does not boast many F100 HQ’s or significant large corporations with operations requiring frequent global travel (Intel has a manufacturing site - not likely to drive global travel as much as its Sales & Corporate functions in the Bay Area).

Culturally Phoenix is not part of the nations zeitgeist - it has nothing to show for Austin’s SXSW ,Portland, OR, Boston or New Orleans.

Geographically it’s too close to LAX.
 
jetwet1
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:48 am

TUSDawg23 wrote:
LAS is a low-yield market and they don't seem to have a problem getting service to places like ICN and PEK.


Except it's not, if you look at actual prices compared to A'Net myth, you will find that LAS is at the same level as PHX, LAX and SFO, there is a post floating around on here where I took a random date 4 months out and compared published fares. Of course some markets fluctuate, but it should be noted that PHX has BA to LHR, LAS has BA to LHR and VS switching (finally) from LGW (14 seats in upper) to LHR ( 31 seats in Upper), so the yields cannot be that bad.

BoeingGuy wrote:

I wouldn't. There are very few places in the world I find less appealing than Las Vegas. What a s**t hole. LAS is good for one thing only - getting out of town as fast as possible and getting to fine places like Death Valley, Zion National Park, or the north rim of the Grand Canyon.

PHX is the gateway to the more popular south rim of the Grand Canyon and places like Sedona. Plus, in general there is a lot more to do on Arizona than Nevada for Tourism - other than gambling in a casino.

If I had the choice between PHX and Arizona vs LAS, it would be an easy choice. PHX hands down.


I'm not going to spend a longtime defending my city, but lets put it like this, everyone is free to their opinions and free to make choices, with that said, Arizona managed to bring in 42 million tourists, that's not PHX, that is the whole state and includes day trippers to the Grand Canyon etc (guess what the largest market for the Grand Canyon is, hint, it's in Nevada not Arizona) LAS by itself brought in the same number.... Or to put it into a slightly different light...Tourists to Arizona spent $22.7b last year, Las Vegas by itself was just over $60b.....

So yes, Las Vegas may be a s**thole, but it is a very popular s**hole and as one city it matches or beats an entire state in every metric.

spinotter wrote:

Then the overwhelming majority of people internationally are challenged intellectually and aestetically if they prefer a desert sewer like Las Vegas.


MAPA ? Make Phoenix Great again ?

When it comes down to it, PHX doesn't really have the businesses to support a lot of international (not counting Mexico or Canada), with LAX a one hour hop away the US3 (mostly AA) will funnel people heading west through there or through DFW if you are heading east, or you could always hop up to Vegas where we have lots of international flights, not just to London or Frankfurt (but only on Monday and Fridays)......But yeah, Vegas is a s**hole....
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:18 am

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/new ... ck-in.html

14182 pax depart from PHX to Tokyo , or 39 pax daily --- still have 1 seat left when all put into JL B77W PY section
 
Samfam1000
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:08 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2018/04/20/flight-plan-sky-harbor-has-seen-an-uptick-in.html

14182 pax depart from PHX to Tokyo , or 39 pax daily --- still have 1 seat left when all put into JL B77W PY section



Wasn't able to read the article as it requires a subscription but the title "Flight plan: Sky Harbor has seen an uptick in international air service, but there still is a push for more" makes me laugh. Condor adds 2x weekly season service and BA adds 3x weekly additional season service and thats considered a "uptick?" PHX attempt to get more service is a joke as SAN, SJC and other similar markets go screaming past it with overseas flights. PHX has been described as Vegas without the casinos and Los Angeles without the beaches. No wonder no overseas carrier wants to fly there.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:51 pm

Samfam1000 wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2018/04/20/flight-plan-sky-harbor-has-seen-an-uptick-in.html

14182 pax depart from PHX to Tokyo , or 39 pax daily --- still have 1 seat left when all put into JL B77W PY section



Wasn't able to read the article as it requires a subscription but the title "Flight plan: Sky Harbor has seen an uptick in international air service, but there still is a push for more" makes me laugh. Condor adds 2x weekly season service and BA adds 3x weekly additional season service and thats considered a "uptick?" PHX attempt to get more service is a joke as SAN, SJC and other similar markets go screaming past it with overseas flights. PHX has been described as Vegas without the casinos and Los Angeles without the beaches. No wonder no overseas carrier wants to fly there.


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910A
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:18 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2018/04/20/flight-plan-sky-harbor-has-seen-an-uptick-in.html

14182 pax depart from PHX to Tokyo , or 39 pax daily --- still have 1 seat left when all put into JL B77W PY section


Shouldn't the question be how many people depart from PHX to various Asia cites daily? One needs to take in account all the PHX passengers that fly to TPE, ICN, MNL, HKG etc that could use NRT as a connecting point rather than LAX. Every time that I have crossed the Pacific to LAX, the HP/US/AA flight from LAX as had a seriously high number of pacific connecting passengers on it.
 
910A
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:38 pm

Adipocere wrote:
From an economy perspective, even though PHX boasts 5 million people - about 2 million of them are recent arrivals from Mexico and areas south of the border. .


Define what a recent arrival is? Is it 200yrs, 50yrs, last week? As for population PHX only has a population of 1.5m. You have a number of bedroom communities that are lily white such as Gilbert, which which reported in 2015 having the #1 median income in the United States. Then you have Chandler and Scottsdale which also are well to do cities.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/lo ... /75067456/
http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/gil ... cs-8269232
https://www.point2homes.com/US/Neighbor ... phics.html

As for "zeitgeist" what do you think baseball spring training is, which brings thousands and thousands of fans from the United States and Asia to the Valley for eight weeks every year. ANA has brought a couple of 77W of baseball fans over the couple of seasons.
 
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chunhimlai
Posts: 460
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Re: Will AA in PHX add NS to Asia expansion?

Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:59 pm

910A wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2018/04/20/flight-plan-sky-harbor-has-seen-an-uptick-in.html

14182 pax depart from PHX to Tokyo , or 39 pax daily --- still have 1 seat left when all put into JL B77W PY section


Shouldn't the question be how many people depart from PHX to various Asia cites daily? One needs to take in account all the PHX passengers that fly to TPE, ICN, MNL, HKG etc that could use NRT as a connecting point rather than LAX. Every time that I have crossed the Pacific to LAX, the HP/US/AA flight from LAX as had a seriously high number of pacific connecting passengers on it.


NRT is declining in terms of international transit on tecent years

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... ine-215202

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