APYu
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:31 am

BA will have no interest in LHR-SYD non stop. Theyd make more money doing two / three trips over the atlantic in that time.
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vhtje
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:32 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:

QF clearly want to do the Sunrise flights ASAP, and I'm not doubting that whatsoever. But Qantas makes their biggest profits in the Australian domestic market, and could also use the 797 on several short/medium-haul international routes. If the 797 can further increase their domestic/short-haul-international profitability then that could be a huge boon for Qantas, enough to make QF willing to wait on Sunrise.


Are you suggesting that Boeing is tying the 777X/Sunrise aircraft with an order for the 797? An aircraft that isn't even designed yet, yet alone launched? Don't be daft. However... I can see Boeing tying the Sunrise aircraft to a sweetheart deal on the 737-8/9 - QF need replacement domestic aircraft soon, and Boeing could do with a an additional boost to the 737 programme a la the recent IAG order.

On the other hand, Airbus could equally be offering QF a sweetheart deal on the A350XULR and A320neos....
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olle
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:18 am

If the decision is made in 2027 I can imagine that the A350 is close getting neo. With another 10% improvement that would give a quit normal layout of the seatmaps.
 
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keesje
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:15 am

I think it is likely QF will commit to 20-40 HGW / ULR A350-1000s that can each do the required >8000NM with a good margin. Other flights would benefit from additional cargo payload opportunity.

Maybe they would operate two cabin lay-outs, one more optimized for real long flights, in terms of catering, crew rests and passenger comfort. The other better optimized for dense intra asia flights.

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Because A350-900LR's are basically reconfigurated standard A350-900s, those could be leased to open up the ULH routes early on, say from ~2022. They could be converted back to standard A350-900s, when suitable A350-1000 LR's become available. A low risk approach.
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moa999
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:01 am

keesje wrote:
I think it is likely QF will commit to 20-40 HGW / ULR A350-1000s that can each do the required >8000NM with a good margin. .


Way too many. Remember QF is an end of line carrier with a relatively small population.
Current LH fleet.
12 A380s, 7 747s, 8 787s, 10 333s, 8 332s (so 45 aircraft) - and for various tax reasons they keep aircraft for 20 years.
(Excludes 10 332s which are notionally domestic, and the 737s some of which to SH Asia).
The 747s are gone in the next 12 months replaced by another 6 787s. The 12 A380s are just getting a refurb so will stay 8-10 years

Once the 747s are gone the only aircraft that need replacing in the next 5 years are the 333s (2003-2005 deliveries).

I'd see a fleet of 8-12 initially opening some new routes and possibly cascading some A380s to Asia, with a possibility of some 359s or 789s (of which QF still has cheap options) for the remaining 333s.

Then you've got a second set of options on a 350neo1000 for 2029/30 to replace the A380s which can probably do the ULR routes with less restrictions so cascaded the Sunrise aircraft to shorter routes.

And sometime over this period they also need to start putting $s into the narrowbody fleet.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:29 am

oceanvikram wrote:
Agreed that Joyce wants to launch these direct flights before he leaves. Will it happen, I doubt it, currently there are too many uncertainties with the global economy. And Qantas being a very conservative airline when it comes to new services and/or products, the decision would most likely be made in 2027.


Yes we can expect Joyce and the QF board to take a cautious approach to new investment. But I don't think they will see the project as too much of a risk, especially as this will de facto become the A380 replacement as well.

The only novelty is that Sunrise might require a subfleet (seven aircraft?) for SYD/MEL-LHR and maybe NYC. We might be talking about aircraft with sealed forward hold and an aft ACT for the extreme range sectors. But they will still, like the A359ULR, be convertible to a standard frame, so risk is minimal.

And in fleet terms it means filling a gap for a 77W-size aircraft that can comfortably do SYD/MEL not just to US west coast but also point to point to DFW, ORD, NYC etc as well as GRU. Like their neighbours in NZ QF know that monopoly routes deliver great yields. We are looking at A35K becoming the dominant long haul type for QF, likely a fleet of 20+.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:56 am

tealnz wrote:
Yes we can expect Joyce and the QF board to take a cautious approach to new investment. But I don't think they will see the project as too much of a risk, especially as this will de facto become the A380 replacement as well.


The 777-200LR, dubbed the Worldliner, with a range of 8,555 nautical miles completed its first flight on March 8, 2005. From 2006 through 2014 59 were delivered. It can't have had a massive impact on the bottom line.

With half the company in danger right now, I can't imagine Boeing executives putting that high a priority on this projeg.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:52 am

Let's not pretend this sort of contest is just about money. There's all sorts of corporate and even national/regional pride bound up in these sorts of projects. Honestly I think Airbus sped through some warning signs on the A380 partly because its management wanted to prove that it could be dominant on the world stage. Boeing, for its part, really wanted to knock the A340-500 out of the longest-range spot, and developed the 777-200LR with few orders even after it became clear that the 777-300ER was long-legged enough to fly many near-ULH and even ULH missions. Boeing obviously has to get its MAX house back in order before it can indulge that type of project again, but I don't think it will be willing to concede all of ULH to the two A350 ULR variants for the next 10 years, even if the spreadsheets show a low expected return.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:14 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Yes we can expect Joyce and the QF board to take a cautious approach to new investment. But I don't think they will see the project as too much of a risk, especially as this will de facto become the A380 replacement as well.

The 777-200LR, dubbed the Worldliner, with a range of 8,555 nautical miles completed its first flight on March 8, 2005. From 2006 through 2014 59 were delivered. It can't have had a massive impact on the bottom line. With half the company in danger right now, I can't imagine Boeing executives putting that high a priority on this projeg.

Can't follow your point. Boeing has its own problems to worry about it.

QF is in the business of making money. Joyce is driving a strategy change that is all about premium traffic and offering point to point non-stop ULH service to destinations that will deliver higher yields. PER-LHR has shown the way. There is a limit to what they can do with the 789 so the next step is a fleet of true ULH aircraft that can do London, New York etc non-stop from SYD/MEL. I wouldn't bet against the success of that strategy.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:53 pm

If Qantas delays project sunrise to wait for the 778, I guess Airbud will get the message loud and clear: don't bother ....
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
jagraham
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:05 pm

Stitch wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
So I guess the Freighter will likely be based on the -9X instead of the -8X? Or the -8X becomes solely a Freighter once 777F orders dwindle to the point a production shift becomes viable?


The 777-8 makes the most sense as a replacement for the 777 Freighter. 777 Freighter sales are still decent at the moment and Boeing needs them to keep the 777 FAL moving while they get the 777X FAL into a normal production cadence. As such, the market for a 777-8 freighter is probably deeper into the next decade and Boeing need not have a passenger version of the 777-8 before they have a freighter so they can halt development on the passenger model indefinitely and only focus on a freighter version.


As for this "compelling offer" to Qantas, I definitely do not see 777-200LRs as fitting that description. Last decade Qantas issued RFPs for the 777-200LR and A340-500 for PER-LHR, PER-HNL and SYD-LHR. I recall that for LHR-SYD, the 777-200LR was under 200 seats and the A340-500 was 120 seats so QF decided against launching those routes.

I believe that Boeing is receiving strong signals that their existing 777-8 order book is going to contract a significant amount and are now evaluating if there are enough frames left to justify the expense of offering the model. As with the 777-200LR, which also saw it's development suspended for a time due to low orders, Boeing might be hoping that a strong 777-9 flight test result would boost confidence in the 777-8 and in turn increase interest in the frame (either to recover pre-existing orders that were lost or to secure new orders to replace them).

Pure speculation on my part, but if Qantas is thinking of pushing Project Sunrise back (the world economy is starting to look shaky as trade wars are looming), that would give Boeing the window they would like to re-evaluate the general market interest in the 777-8. So I could see part of this "compelling offer" to Qantas offering incentives for them to delay Project Sunrise a few years to keep the 777-8 in the running, even if the A350-1000ULR would be available by then, as well.



The 777LR was designed to do PER-LHR. With aux tanks. Per the ACAP, the 77L will carry 30 t 9500 nm with 2 aux tanks. And I don't think that includes the last PIP that the 77W got.
So 30t pax and bags, 150t fuel, and alternate westbound routing, and it works. 300 pax, no cargo, and a whole lot of fuel. But the 77L can do it. The last PIPs (last update on the ACAP is 2015) are icing on the cake.

Still I don't think that 777LRs even with discounts to account for the extra fuel is what the alternative will be. After all, QF could be flying SYD to LHR with 77Ls now. I vote for a 787 package.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:14 am

tealnz wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
The 777-200LR, dubbed the Worldliner, with a range of 8,555 nautical miles completed its first flight on March 8, 2005. From 2006 through 2014 59 were delivered. It can't have had a massive impact on the bottom line. With half the company in danger right now, I can't imagine Boeing executives putting that high a priority on this projeg.

Can't follow your point. Boeing has its own problems to worry about it.

My point is the last time (777-200LR) Boeing delivered 59 ULH jets over an 8 year period. This time (777-8) has only 45 orders so far.
From an economic viewpoint, this project can't be that significant. As one of the last frontiers of commercial aviation, it has huge prestige value.
 
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AAlaxfan
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:44 am

It's been 11 months since this thread started. Is QF ACTUALLY CLOSE to making a decision?
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aussie747
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:53 am

AAlaxfan wrote:
It's been 11 months since this thread started. Is QF ACTUALLY CLOSE to making a decision?


We may know more when FY details are released on 22nd August and again at the time of the AGM on the 25th October , although AJ has advised publicly that a decision would be made before the end of the year .
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:59 am

aussie747 wrote:
AAlaxfan wrote:
It's been 11 months since this thread started. Is QF ACTUALLY CLOSE to making a decision?


We may know more when FY details are released on 22nd August and again at the time of the AGM on the 25th October , although AJ has advised publicly that a decision would be made before the end of the year .


Actually they've even walked back slightly from the end of the year: they [b]hope[b\] to make a decision by the end of the year.

In addition to the technical requirements and the bids submitted by Airbus and Boeing, which has been discussed at length in this thread, they also need to reach an agreement with AIPA. There are still a lot of balls up in the air.
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Scotron12
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:23 am

Agreement with AIPA surely should't impact the choice of aircraft, no?
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:25 am

AAlaxfan wrote:
It's been 11 months since this thread started. Is QF ACTUALLY CLOSE to making a decision?

No but we’ve managed to chalk up nearly 6000 posts worth of prognostications. Heaven help us if they announce they’re delaying a decision!

V/F
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:04 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Agreement with AIPA surely should't impact the choice of aircraft, no?


No, but there's no point ordering either if the pilots refuse to fly for 22 hours.
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:01 pm

Boeing could be offering QF some 787 enhancements to cover the delay in the 778, below is a rumour only but worthy of bringing it up

I don't know what to make of this but perhaps someone else can, this rumour (that's what I will refer to it as of now until something more solid comes of it, though the source of this had been fairly reliable in the past) posted on Executive Traveller (formally AusBT) forum and is related to the temporary reduction in EK services in November

Apparently this could be a trial for possible trial for fleet deployment to be allocated next year and here is the big news with QF to announce a 787 order at the next AGM to replace some EK services to Europe, either via PER or SIN

Whilst this does correspond to scheduled downtime in the EK fleet, there are murmurings that this will also constitute a trial of the possible fleet deployment next year - in anticipation of a relatively large QF 787 order that will allegedly come next AGM (with possible Sunrise tidbits).
Pundits have already predicted a shrinking presence from Middle Eastern airlines due to the falling oil price, however the rumours regarding QF 787 deployment to Europe to fill in the gaps(unknown if this will be ex PER or SIN) are certainly starting to spread around airline ops rooms!



https://www.executivetraveller.com/comm ... nouncement

Again Im not sure what to make of this as only about 10 days ago AJ said they would not order any more 787's until Project Sunrise was resolved but given the latest developments on the 778 being pushed back, however is Boeing offering 787's to QF with further enhancements to tie them over till 778's are available. The term with possible Sunrise tidbits, is that referring to the 787 or something else?
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tealnz
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:46 pm

It would be a surprise. We still lack any hard information on any enhancements NZ were given to persuade them to take the 78Js. Superior fuel efficiency from the GEnX was clearly part of it, and we have seen speculation about both weight reduction and higher weight. But nothing solid on any major engineering effort by Boeing of a scale that would be required to make the 787 a contender for UK/Europe routes out of SYD/MEL. In the meantime Luxon has clarified that the 78Js will be used mainly on Asian routes, notwithstanding a.net fantasies about the 78J becoming a 77W replacement. Looks to me as if we'll need to wait for a neo version before the 787 becomes a true Sunrise contender.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:52 pm

qf789 wrote:
Boeing could be offering QF some 787 enhancements to cover the delay in the 778, below is a rumour only but worthy of bringing it up

I don't know what to make of this but perhaps someone else can, this rumour (that's what I will refer to it as of now until something more solid comes of it, though the source of this had been fairly reliable in the past) posted on Executive Traveller (formally AusBT) forum and is related to the temporary reduction in EK services in November

Apparently this could be a trial for possible trial for fleet deployment to be allocated next year and here is the big news with QF to announce a 787 order at the next AGM to replace some EK services to Europe, either via PER or SIN

Whilst this does correspond to scheduled downtime in the EK fleet, there are murmurings that this will also constitute a trial of the possible fleet deployment next year - in anticipation of a relatively large QF 787 order that will allegedly come next AGM (with possible Sunrise tidbits).
Pundits have already predicted a shrinking presence from Middle Eastern airlines due to the falling oil price, however the rumours regarding QF 787 deployment to Europe to fill in the gaps(unknown if this will be ex PER or SIN) are certainly starting to spread around airline ops rooms!



https://www.executivetraveller.com/comm ... nouncement

Again Im not sure what to make of this as only about 10 days ago AJ said they would not order any more 787's until Project Sunrise was resolved but given the latest developments on the 778 being pushed back, however is Boeing offering 787's to QF with further enhancements to tie them over till 778's are available. The term with possible Sunrise tidbits, is that referring to the 787 or something else?


If QF is delaying the decision on Sunrise and this coincides with the aircraft from Boeing for this RFP being delayed as well it seems clear to me they are waiting for the aircraft from Boeing before committing. As much as I think it all points towards Airbus right now, the fact that all of a sudden the long haul economics are being debated again when it was all go and only a aircraft decision (minus pilot contract) needed to be made does point for me towards Boeing having to work extremely hard to lose this order.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:54 pm

tealnz wrote:
It would be a surprise. We still lack any hard information on any enhancements NZ were given to persuade them to take the 78Js. Superior fuel efficiency from the GEnX was clearly part of it, and we have seen speculation about both weight reduction and higher weight. But nothing solid on any major engineering effort by Boeing of a scale that would be required to make the 787 a contender for UK/Europe routes out of SYD/MEL. In the meantime Luxon has clarified that the 78Js will be used mainly on Asian routes, notwithstanding a.net fantasies about the 78J becoming a 77W replacement. Looks to me as if we'll need to wait for a neo version before the 787 becomes a true Sunrise contender.



Could it be that the enhancements were all paper, i.e. more favourable terms for NZ, and thus the silence on other improvements?
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:27 pm

There must have been some improvements on payload/range – Luxon referred to game-changing elements of the offer and their statement talked of the 78J being able to handle similar routes to the 77E. The question is whether we are talking about anything more than a minor improvement on fuel burn (from the switch to GEnX), slightly lower OEW and maybe a minor increase in MTOW, all part of the regular process of incremental improvements, or whether Boeing have quietly been engineering some more substantial improvements that are still hidden from public view. The comment about the 78Js being destined mainly for Asian routes suggests that the 78Js NZ has contracted for do not incorporate any transformational improvement in capability.
 
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:28 pm

duplicate
 
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Stitch
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:16 pm

tealnz wrote:
The comment about the 78Js being destined mainly for Asian routes suggests that the 78Js NZ has contracted for do not incorporate any transformational improvement in capability.


Or it could be that is where the immediate need is for a high-capacity, high-efficiency frame. I don't know where Air New Zealand sends their 777-200ERs, but it looks like they might not send them too far afield - I saw a site that said they use them on RAR-LAX and AKL-HNL and both should be within the current 787-10's performance envelope.
 
tealnz
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:25 am

Sure. My point is that, a.net myth notwithstanding, we have not seen hard evidence that the 78J is now offering 77E-type capability (even though it will be able to do some long-haul routes with lighter payloads).
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:33 am

tealnz wrote:
Sure. My point is that, a.net myth notwithstanding, we have not seen hard evidence that the 78J is now offering 77E-type capability (even though it will be able to do some long-haul routes with lighter payloads).


Exactly and NZ have since the order dialled back their comments on where the 78J will operate. Also said 77X and A350 are being considered for long haul routes.
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Stitch
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:03 am

Not trying to be argumentative for the sake of being argumentative here (honestly), but we might want to consider what is "777E-type capability" in today's age?

Airbus has claimed for some time that the HGW models of the A330-300 could cover some 90% of the 777-200ER's scheduled missions and the A333's payload-range chart is not as robust as the 777-200ER's. So it sounds like the majority of flights are not in what I would call "B-Market" missions with stage lengths between 6000 and 8000 nautical miles, but instead more likely at or below 5,000nm. So the 787-10 might very well have sufficient payload-range for the plurality, if not majority, of the 777-200ER fleet's missions.

Of course, NZ also has the 777-300ER in their fleet operating with higher payloads on stage lengths closer to the upper end of the B-Market, which would make sense why they are considering the 777-9 and A350-1000.
 
Etheereal
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:17 am

Olddog wrote:
If Qantas delays project sunrise to wait for the 778, I guess Airbud will get the message loud and clear: don't bother ....

If QF is seriously waiting for the 778, that means some people that were laughing earlier on the A350 UXLR thread were wrong? :duck:
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tealnz
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Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:32 am

Stitch wrote:
Not trying to be argumentative for the sake of being argumentative here (honestly), but we might want to consider what is "777E-type capability" in today's age?

Airbus has claimed for some time that the HGW models of the A330-300 could cover some 90% of the 777-200ER's scheduled missions and the A333's payload-range chart is not as robust as the 777-200ER's. So it sounds like the majority of flights are not in what I would call "B-Market" missions with stage lengths between 6000 and 8000 nautical miles, but instead more likely at or below 5,000nm. So the 787-10 might very well have sufficient payload-range for the plurality, if not majority, of the 777-200ER fleet's missions.

Of course, NZ also has the 777-300ER in their fleet operating with higher payloads on stage lengths closer to the upper end of the B-Market, which would make sense why they are considering the 777-9 and A350-1000.

Fair question. For routes from A/NZ it is a real-world issue: QF struggled with their AKL-LAX A332 service because it didn’t quite have the legs and for some years NZ were firm in saying the 78J wasn’t viable as a 77E replacement for the same reason. The 77E is a very capable aircraft, just too heavy and thirsty to compete with modern types. The NZ decision to replace the 77E with the 78J was a surprise in some respects but your suggestion – that the 78J has the range for most current 77E missions – might be the answer. In NZ’s case we have to assume that most of the North American sectors will be carried by 77W or 789 once the 77Es go.

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