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lightsaber
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Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:21 am

I didn't see a thread and found this interesting.
More recently, the airline has been working to shed its older, more encumbered Embraer E-Jets, and in Jul-2018 it signed a letter of intent for an additional 21 Embraer E2 jets. Now Azul aims to shed its older E-195 E1 jets by 2021.


https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... e1s-433988


I find it very interesting that the E1s are being replaced even faster than JetBlue's (replacement 2020 through 2025):
https://pointmetotheplane.boardingarea. ... 190-fleet/


Now this doesn't mean the E-jets are in danger. Republic is the #1 operator of E-jets.
But this has the #1 and #2 operators of the E190/195 retiring the planes early. We will find out what the resale market truly is. One replaced with better gauge E2-195s, one with A220s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_E ... _operators
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:38 am

I think it will be hard to give away old E190s.
 
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:05 am

Could the E 190 be used for cargo ??
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:30 am

Either they are going to be losing some capacity or EMbraer is really ramping up production.
 
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:39 am

lightsaber wrote:
But this has the #1 and #2 operators of the E190/195 retiring the planes early.


Early? These will be approaching 15 years by the time of replacement. Plenty of 737 and A320 operators replace their fleets at that age or less. And it isn't as if a much more economical plane didn't just come out ;)

impilot wrote:
I think it will be hard to give away old E190s.


I doubt they will be given away, but the price for a 15 year old short-hauler obviously won't be high. IMHO, they will be popular.

NAC has announced that they are going to focus more on E-jets, they are a logical buyer. There are indications that cheap secondhand E-jets are going to be popular outside the west. TAROM is rumoured to be looking for E-jets, and several African airlines are building fleets of them too. Old E-jets will make good replacements for older 737-200, -300 and -500 fleets, and are the natural upgrade for ATR, CRJ-100/200, Avro RJ, Fokker and Dash-8 operators looking for more capable and/or newer aircraft. They could even end up in Iran.
 
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:24 am

VSMUT wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
But this has the #1 and #2 operators of the E190/195 retiring the planes early.


Early? These will be approaching 15 years by the time of replacement. Plenty of 737 and A320 operators replace their fleets at that age or less. And it isn't as if a much more economical plane didn't just come out ;)

impilot wrote:
I think it will be hard to give away old E190s.




There's a very robust secondary market for used 320s and 737s, with (in the U.S. alone) Delta, American, Southwest and United playing. To lightsaber's point, I guess we'll see what market exists for 15-year old 190s.
 
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:05 am

How are they planning to replace them exactly? There is no way they'll have taken all 51 E195 E2s by 2021. Are they downsizing? Also why are they retiring them so soon?
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:24 pm

VSMUT wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
But this has the #1 and #2 operators of the E190/195 retiring the planes early.


Early? These will be approaching 15 years by the time of replacement. Plenty of 737 and A320 operators replace their fleets at that age or less. And it isn't as if a much more economical plane didn't just come out ;)

impilot wrote:
I think it will be hard to give away old E190s.


I doubt they will be given away, but the price for a 15 year old short-hauler obviously won't be high. IMHO, they will be popular.

NAC has announced that they are going to focus more on E-jets, they are a logical buyer. There are indications that cheap secondhand E-jets are going to be popular outside the west. TAROM is rumoured to be looking for E-jets, and several African airlines are building fleets of them too. Old E-jets will make good replacements for older 737-200, -300 and -500 fleets, and are the natural upgrade for ATR, CRJ-100/200, Avro RJ, Fokker and Dash-8 operators looking for more capable and/or newer aircraft. They could even end up in Iran.

Some A320 and 737 operators do replace early. But I'm not aware of the #1 and #2 operators of those types cycling out. Even Indigo is now buying A320NEOs. :hyper:

When the #1 operator cycles out a type, it crunches down the resale value. This was true of Easyjet disposing of A319s and with both the #1 and #2 quickly rotating out their fleets, this will create a much steeper value proposition. Airlines aren't buying A319s because they are made out of unicorn horn, they are buying because the used price enables profitable low utilization operation.

Just as with the A319 buyers, E-190/195 buyers will be saving airframes from scrappers, but some airframes will go there. :( The reality is the maintenance costs have not met expectations. Maintenance is one big improvement of the E2 family, there is a reason many of the sub-systems have been replaced.

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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 2:53 pm

OA940 wrote:
How are they planning to replace them exactly? There is no way they'll have taken all 51 E195 E2s by 2021. Are they downsizing? Also why are they retiring them so soon?

Why couldn't they replace by 2021? Embraer hasn't sold enough E2s to not offer fast delivery slots. 51 in 2019, 2020, and 2021 is easy. A rate of 2 per month would easily allow the fleet turnover in that timeline. Heck, it could almost be a leisurely 1.5X per month; a small surge of deliveries in 2021 at 2X per month would do it.

Why? Money. The CF-34 is not an efficient engine. It wasn't at EIS and it certainly isn't now. Despite the bad press, the Pratt's have lower maintenance bills too. Most of all, the subsystems have lower promised maintenance bills. Due to a poor start of E2 sales, Azul would have been able to set the terms. The E-190/195 just isn't aging well. I've seen the difference in Embraer interface documents between the two and, in my opinion, the company has grown up. The original E-jet documents missed design points for longevity. In my opinion the E2 documents were the best in the industry (even better than GE/CFM, the prior best definition).

In no way is the E-jet production line operating at capacity. All of that new automation will allow faster production and yet the line is at a moderate pace and yes I'm aware of the E-175 sales. This is a jump start of E2 sales that helps both parties.

The E2-195 will be, in my opinion, the top selling E2 model. I will be shocked if less than two thirds of all E2 sales are not the E2-195 (in the long run). Due to JetBlue's issues being the fleet leader on the E-190, airlines demand:
1. Someone else operate and debug the airframe with an 18+ month head start.
2. That someone else be a relatively intense operator to ensure they find issues prior to other airlines.
3. Enough are in service to statistically have an understanding of the issues.

Azul gives Embraer this leg up. In return, they are taking on risk of unknown future issues, so the pricing must be excellent.

Winderoe is playing that role on the E2-190. So that reduces the risk quite a bit for Azul. But as JetBlue found out, the smaller models do not 100% translate to the larger. Cest la vie.

I'm glad there are buyers for the aircraft,

But compare, the newer E-190/195 have 92% of aircraft in service (EIS 2005 with JetBlue) versus the older A319 (1996 EIS) with 93%:
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-e190.htm
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-a319.htm

For such a young aircraft, having 60 not active isn't acceptable. For reference, the 737NG has 97% of aircraft in service. Having 3% on the market is fully acceptable for a circa 1997 EIS.
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-b737ng.htm

This implies there is a disproportionate number of E190/195 already looking for new homes Basic supply and demand theory tells us that lowers the resale price. With Azul rotating the type out by 2021 and Jetblue starting in 2020 (thru 2025), I wouldn't want to be the leasing company holding onto the asset. Note that Azul's are leased, so there is little impediment to rapid retirement. In fact, with the wingspar issues (see thread link below), I believe Azul is avoiding having to pay for that costly repair. For with aircraft, there is an escrow account for estimated maintenance costs billed as a monthly rent; the E-jets maintenance costs are exceeding the estimate so that if the airline is holding onto the aircraft at a maintenance check where a finding is discovered, they have to bear the expense. By retiring early, Azul saves paying for expensive repairs (including engine overhauls that, for example when Indigo leased CFM-56 powered A320s, they were hit with a rash of overhaul bills despite only recently leasing the planes).

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1403321

So a long winded reply that it is wise for Azul to rotate out the E2-195s early and why I believe Embraer would have signed the contract to deliver early.
What I haven't seen is the final order for 51 E2s from Azul. Right now it is at 30, but what can Embraer do? Force Azul to buy Bombardier? :duck: Mutual terms will be found and I suspect in Azul's favor.

Just look at the order book:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E ... ily#Orders

Of 240 firm, the 100 to Skywest just cannot happen. I hope scope clause changes, but so far only AS and outside the US airlines may operate the E2-175 with regional divisions. At this time, Azul is the only significant operator of the E2 who can diagnose and find solutions to issues. Negotiating advantage Azul. But by having Azul that operator, I'm certain other orders will be finalized.

Current bids:
1. Alaska (well, Horizon sub-division). Best change for launch operator for the E2-175
2. UA vs. A220, for about 50.
3. Kenya vs. A220, for an undisclosed number.

I'm sure there are others, I just haven't seen PR for an RFQ.
Losing Moxie and JetBlue hurt the E2. :( Recoverable, but orders need to be finalized. Profit Shark needs to bring in orders. :spin:

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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:19 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I didn't see a thread and found this interesting.
More recently, the airline has been working to shed its older, more encumbered Embraer E-Jets, and in Jul-2018 it signed a letter of intent for an additional 21 Embraer E2 jets. Now Azul aims to shed its older E-195 E1 jets by 2021.


https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... e1s-433988


I find it very interesting that the E1s are being replaced even faster than JetBlue's (replacement 2020 through 2025):
https://pointmetotheplane.boardingarea. ... 190-fleet/


Now this doesn't mean the E-jets are in danger. Republic is the #1 operator of E-jets.
But this has the #1 and #2 operators of the E190/195 retiring the planes early. We will find out what the resale market truly is. One replaced with better gauge E2-195s, one with A220s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_E ... _operators


Your first link also states:
The plan to accelerate the exit of E1s from Azul’s fleet was driven in part by financing arrangements for those jets (forged during the company’s start-up phase) that are unfavourable now that Azul is celebrating a decade of service in 2018.


Although maintenance costs are certainly a contributing factor to the decision of retiring the E1 early, there are apparently other issues that have contributed to Azul's decision to retire its E1 fleet early. At the same time, this was an opportunity for Embraer to beef-up its E2 order book and to ramp-up its production rate in a very short term. This looks like a truely win-win deal.
 
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:36 pm

tomcat wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I didn't see a thread and found this interesting.
More recently, the airline has been working to shed its older, more encumbered Embraer E-Jets, and in Jul-2018 it signed a letter of intent for an additional 21 Embraer E2 jets. Now Azul aims to shed its older E-195 E1 jets by 2021.


https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... e1s-433988


I find it very interesting that the E1s are being replaced even faster than JetBlue's (replacement 2020 through 2025):
https://pointmetotheplane.boardingarea. ... 190-fleet/


Now this doesn't mean the E-jets are in danger. Republic is the #1 operator of E-jets.
But this has the #1 and #2 operators of the E190/195 retiring the planes early. We will find out what the resale market truly is. One replaced with better gauge E2-195s, one with A220s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_E ... _operators


Your first link also states:
The plan to accelerate the exit of E1s from Azul’s fleet was driven in part by financing arrangements for those jets (forged during the company’s start-up phase) that are unfavourable now that Azul is celebrating a decade of service in 2018.


Although maintenance costs are certainly a contributing factor to the decision of retiring the E1 early, there are apparently other issues that have contributed to Azul's decision to retire its E1 fleet early. At the same time, this was an opportunity for Embraer to beef-up its E2 order book and to ramp-up its production rate in a very short term. This looks like a truely win-win deal.

Yes, there are a series of costs driving the change:
1. Lease costs
2. Fuel costs
3. Maintenance costs

When the combination pays for the replacement and some, then a quick retirement.

And yes, a very win-win deal. However, at this time Azul has the negotiating authority.
I'm already curious who will operate the used E1-195s.

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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:27 pm

impilot wrote:
I think it will be hard to give away old E190s.


Being that UA desperately needs/wants to replace more 50-seaters with 76-seaters, these older E190/195 could provide UA some relatively inexpensive lift while still meeting the ALPA scope requirements. UA could pick up a boatload of them, put then ALL in one domicile/hub and run back-and-forth flights all day with them thereby exposing the new A/C type to only one domicile. On relatively short flights, CASM isn't going to be the best anyway so these older planes could work just fine.

UA could put them all at LAX and run up and down the coast all day or put them at IAD and do the same. 100-seat A/C with no middle seats would be very business-passenger-friendly compared to anything with 3-across.

I think there's a prime candidate for these used 190s IMO
 
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:19 pm

jetblastdubai wrote:
impilot wrote:
I think it will be hard to give away old E190s.


Being that UA desperately needs/wants to replace more 50-seaters with 76-seaters, these older E190/195 could provide UA some relatively inexpensive lift while still meeting the ALPA scope requirements. UA could pick up a boatload of them, put then ALL in one domicile/hub and run back-and-forth flights all day with them thereby exposing the new A/C type to only one domicile. On relatively short flights, CASM isn't going to be the best anyway so these older planes could work just fine.

UA could put them all at LAX and run up and down the coast all day or put them at IAD and do the same. 100-seat A/C with no middle seats would be very business-passenger-friendly compared to anything with 3-across.

I think there's a prime candidate for these used 190s IMO

There will be a market. The question is at what price? UA, among others, crunches the numbers and is more willing to take an unpopular type. Not as much as DL...

I wonder if AA might turn around and buy E195s used?

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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:33 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Now this doesn't mean the E-jets are in danger. Republic is the #1 operator of E-jets.
But this has the #1 and #2 operators of the E190/195 retiring the planes early. We will find out what the resale market truly is. One replaced with better gauge E2-195s, one with A220s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_E ... _operators


Also the # 3? E90 operator AC are also going to accelerate the retirement of their E90 fleet by keeping 319s longer while the CS3/A23 arrive on scene.

Add to that the # 5? operator AA's E90s face an uncertain future...unless AA suddenly scoops up all the retirements and becomes a large E90 E1 operator.
 
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:31 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Now this doesn't mean the E-jets are in danger. Republic is the #1 operator of E-jets.
But this has the #1 and #2 operators of the E190/195 retiring the planes early. We will find out what the resale market truly is. One replaced with better gauge E2-195s, one with A220s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_E ... _operators


Also the # 3? E90 operator AC are also going to accelerate the retirement of their E90 fleet by keeping 319s longer while the CS3/A23 arrive on scene.

Add to that the # 5? operator AA's E90s face an uncertain future...unless AA suddenly scoops up all the retirements and becomes a large E90 E1 operator.

Please see Wikipedia,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_E ... _operators

If we compare to airfleets for E9x:
https://www.airfleets.net/exploit/production-e190.htm
#1 Azul
#2 JetBlue
#3 is TIanjin.
#4 is Aeromexico
#5 is KLM
#6 is Austral
#7 is AC (not #3)
#8 is AA

Per AirFleets, 693 are operating. So Azul is 63 of 693 or 9.09% of the E9x fleet
JetBlue is 60 of 693 or 8.65% percent fo the fleet.
AC is only 3.6% of the fleet
AA is but 2.88% of the E9x fleet.

These two fleets retiring should about double the E9x turnover 2020-2025 (a crude 'thumb in the wind' estimate by myself).

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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:59 am

How badly are maintenance costs of the CF-34 going to hamper the E190E1's prospects on the used market?

One of the reasons that the 737 in particular has historically had such success with second and third tier operators is it's 'toughness', reliability and the ease at which spare parts can be sourced. With Jetblue and AirCanada having had so many maintenance and operational issues with them as the aircraft age, this is hardly a vote of confidence in them.
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:43 am

lightsaber wrote:
But I'm not aware of the #1 and #2 operators of those types cycling out. Even Indigo is now buying A320NEOs. :hyper:


The biggest and second biggest A320 and 737 operators also operate 10 times as many of them as the biggest E-jet operators. But since you brought it up, Indigo is replacing it's fleet at a very similar rate to what Azul has now announced, even if they haven't publically announced it.
EasyJet has been rolling out it's A319 fleet, and if it wasn't for the A320NEO delays, would probably have had them out at a very similar timeframe too. GOL and Ryanair are also up there, phasing out 737s at a much younger age than these E-jets will be.
Considering the RJ nature of the E-jet, they are also likely to do more cycles, so will in any case age faster. If we compare to something like the ATR, we have seen loads of airlines replacing relatively newish -500s with -600s. In fact, AZUL did the exact same with its ATRs.


MIflyer12 wrote:
There's a very robust secondary market for used 320s and 737s, with (in the U.S. alone) Delta, American, Southwest and United playing. To lightsaber's point, I guess we'll see what market exists for 15-year old 190s.


Most of these are 195s though. But if the phase-out of Azuls past E-jets is any indication, they will find new homes quite fast. Of 25 retired, 6 went to LOT, 3 to BA Cityflyer and 13 to Portugalia.
The E-190 and E-195s are still highly popular. The recent orders for BA and NAC are an indication of this. They never worked in the US, but lets not forget that in the rest of the world, it is far the most popular E-jet variant.
 
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:37 pm

Per SEC filing Azul just appointed Azorra Aviation to remarket its E-jet fleet

https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filin ... 34214.html

São Paulo, September 24, 2018 – Azul S.A., "Azul" (B3: AZUL4, NYSE: AZUL) announced today that it has engaged Azorra Aviation LLC (“Azorra”) to remarket its entire Embraer E190/E195 fleet. Azorra’s team has a wealth of experience in marketing, sales and leasing of E-Jets and a proven track-record of supporting Azul. With this partnership, Azul expects to accelerate the transition of its current E1 fleet to Embraer’s next generation E195-E2s, contributing to a significant reduction in operating costs.
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:05 pm

With JetBlue, Air Canada, and now Azul dumping their "legacy" 190/195 fleets, I suspect places like Kingman will become permanent Embraer graveyards.
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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:32 pm

KICT wrote:
With JetBlue, Air Canada, and now Azul dumping their "legacy" 190/195 fleets, I suspect places like Kingman will become permanent Embraer graveyards.

Rumor is AC isn't marketing but scrapping. Anyone have better information?

Only Azul is buying E2s... I think Embraer was a few years late with the E2.

Such a high fraction of the fleet being marketed... This is like when Easyjet was returning leased A319s faster than the market could absorb them. Quite a few were scrapped until Allegiant, AA, and UA stepped in at the discount pricing.

What concerns me is many will be retired when NEO, MAX, and A220 production hits stride. I'm thinking until the usedspare market is saturated, prices will drop quickly. JetBlue has made it clear they are returning leased examples last.

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Re: Azul to replace E-195s by 2021 with E2-195s

Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:47 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Per SEC filing Azul just appointed Azorra Aviation to remarket its E-jet fleet

https://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filin ... 34214.html

São Paulo, September 24, 2018 – Azul S.A., "Azul" (B3: AZUL4, NYSE: AZUL) announced today that it has engaged Azorra Aviation LLC (“Azorra”) to remarket its entire Embraer E190/E195 fleet. Azorra’s team has a wealth of experience in marketing, sales and leasing of E-Jets and a proven track-record of supporting Azul. With this partnership, Azul expects to accelerate the transition of its current E1 fleet to Embraer’s next generation E195-E2s, contributing to a significant reduction in operating costs.

What I find interesting read is remarketing the entire E-190 and 195 fleet to accelerate conversion.

It seems like no one is happy with CF-34-10 maintenance costs. In general, the maintenance costs of the E-190 have a reputation for being high, but I cannot produce a link. :(

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