Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
USAirALB wrote:Competition from AS/DL? I know within the last several years they seemed to distance themselves from shorter segments...
USAirALB wrote:My apologies if this has been discussed before (I'm sure it probably was already in some WN-related thread).
I seemed to recall that WN once had a somewhat robust intra-PNW network. I recall them flying:
GEG-PDX/SEA/SLC
SLC-BOI/RNO/SEA/PDX
PDX-BOI/RNO
BOI-SEA/RNO
RNO-SEA
What caused WN to discontinue these routes? Competition from AS/DL? I know within the last several years they seemed to distance themselves from shorter segments (some of the intra-Florida routes come to mind, like the discontinued TPA-PBI).
Varsity1 wrote:Makes me wonder if AS is going to put a damp rag on WN's Hawaii ambitions. AS has a lower CASM on the -900ER's than anything WN owns.
Varsity1 wrote:Makes me wonder if AS is going to put a damp rag on WN's Hawaii ambitions. AS has a lower CASM on the -900ER's than anything WN owns.
USAirALB wrote:My apologies if this has been discussed before (I'm sure it probably was already in some WN-related thread).
GEG-PDX/SEA/SLC
SLC-BOI/RNO/SEA/PDX
PDX-BOI/RNO
BOI-SEA/RNO
RNO-SEA
What caused WN to discontinue these routes? Competition from AS/DL? I know within the last several years they seemed to distance themselves from shorter segments (some of the intra-Florida routes come to mind, like the discontinued TPA-PBI).
ridgid727 wrote:DL had not entered the SEA market as a hub and spoke operator at the time that WN retrenched. It had more to Southwest placing emphasis on and building up Denver than anything.
USAirALB wrote:My apologies if this has been discussed before (I'm sure it probably was already in some WN-related thread).
I seemed to recall that WN once had a somewhat robust intra-PNW network. I recall them flying:
GEG-PDX/SEA/SLC
SLC-BOI/RNO/SEA/PDX
PDX-BOI/RNO
BOI-SEA/RNO
RNO-SEA
What caused WN to discontinue these routes? Competition from AS/DL? I know within the last several years they seemed to distance themselves from shorter segments (some of the intra-Florida routes come to mind, like the discontinued TPA-PBI).
airzona11 wrote:Varsity1 wrote:Makes me wonder if AS is going to put a damp rag on WN's Hawaii ambitions. AS has a lower CASM on the -900ER's than anything WN owns.
But WN isn't flying from PacNW to Hawaii. AS 739 seats 178, WN 738 seats 175. AS operates many 738s to the islands as well. Not sure that is a big factor, WN is going to fly to the islands where they have a strong FF base. If CASM was the key to beating WN, every airline moved up from 73G sized planes but WN, that is their bread and butter.
PacNW is dominated by Seattle, then PDX, and is out of the way from everywhere else. This turns it into a strong hub position for AS. WN seems relegated to the larger O/D stations into PacNW. In addition, the high frequency AS pulls connecting traffic from all the small outstations.
BoeingGuy wrote:airzona11 wrote:Varsity1 wrote:Makes me wonder if AS is going to put a damp rag on WN's Hawaii ambitions. AS has a lower CASM on the -900ER's than anything WN owns.
But WN isn't flying from PacNW to Hawaii. AS 739 seats 178, WN 738 seats 175. AS operates many 738s to the islands as well. Not sure that is a big factor, WN is going to fly to the islands where they have a strong FF base. If CASM was the key to beating WN, every airline moved up from 73G sized planes but WN, that is their bread and butter.
PacNW is dominated by Seattle, then PDX, and is out of the way from everywhere else. This turns it into a strong hub position for AS. WN seems relegated to the larger O/D stations into PacNW. In addition, the high frequency AS pulls connecting traffic from all the small outstations.
You are aware that AS flies to Hawaii from 7 California airports too?
BoeingGuy wrote:airzona11 wrote:Varsity1 wrote:Makes me wonder if AS is going to put a damp rag on WN's Hawaii ambitions. AS has a lower CASM on the -900ER's than anything WN owns.
But WN isn't flying from PacNW to Hawaii. AS 739 seats 178, WN 738 seats 175. AS operates many 738s to the islands as well. Not sure that is a big factor, WN is going to fly to the islands where they have a strong FF base. If CASM was the key to beating WN, every airline moved up from 73G sized planes but WN, that is their bread and butter.
PacNW is dominated by Seattle, then PDX, and is out of the way from everywhere else. This turns it into a strong hub position for AS. WN seems relegated to the larger O/D stations into PacNW. In addition, the high frequency AS pulls connecting traffic from all the small outstations.
You are aware that AS flies to Hawaii from 7 California airports too?
USAirALB wrote:My apologies if this has been discussed before (I'm sure it probably was already in some WN-related thread).
I seemed to recall that WN once had a somewhat robust intra-PNW network. I recall them flying:
GEG-PDX/SEA/SLC
SLC-BOI/RNO/SEA/PDX
PDX-BOI/RNO
BOI-SEA/RNO
RNO-SEA
What caused WN to discontinue these routes? Competition from AS/DL? I know within the last several years they seemed to distance themselves from shorter segments (some of the intra-Florida routes come to mind, like the discontinued TPA-PBI).
n7371f wrote:The cessation of intra-PNW flying coincided with spikes in oil and while WN was hedged mostly, the airline began pulling out of many 250 miles and under markets - not just in the Pac NW. WN's costs simply crept too high for the flying to work. Alaska was also a factor and their frequent flier pull in the markets.
airzona11 wrote:Varsity1 wrote:Makes me wonder if AS is going to put a damp rag on WN's Hawaii ambitions. AS has a lower CASM on the -900ER's than anything WN owns.
But WN isn't flying from PacNW to Hawaii. AS 739 seats 178, WN 738 seats 175. AS operates many 738s to the islands as well. Not sure that is a big factor, WN is going to fly to the islands where they have a strong FF base. If CASM was the key to beating WN, every airline moved up from 73G sized planes but WN, that is their bread and butter.
PacNW is dominated by Seattle, then PDX, and is out of the way from everywhere else. This turns it into a strong hub position for AS. WN seems relegated to the larger O/D stations into PacNW. In addition, the high frequency AS pulls connecting traffic from all the small outstations.
Varsity1 wrote:AS has a lower CASM on the -900ER's than anything WN owns.
AirFiero wrote:airzona11 wrote:Varsity1 wrote:Makes me wonder if AS is going to put a damp rag on WN's Hawaii ambitions. AS has a lower CASM on the -900ER's than anything WN owns.
But WN isn't flying from PacNW to Hawaii. AS 739 seats 178, WN 738 seats 175. AS operates many 738s to the islands as well. Not sure that is a big factor, WN is going to fly to the islands where they have a strong FF base. If CASM was the key to beating WN, every airline moved up from 73G sized planes but WN, that is their bread and butter.
PacNW is dominated by Seattle, then PDX, and is out of the way from everywhere else. This turns it into a strong hub position for AS. WN seems relegated to the larger O/D stations into PacNW. In addition, the high frequency AS pulls connecting traffic from all the small outstations.
I’ve been thinking for some time that for WN to continue growing, they will need another type other than the 737. An RJ/E jet type, to smaller markets. Work a deal with its pilots union that the regional jets are where the new pilots come online, then move up to 737s. Imagine how many new markets they’d be able to serve, and connecting them with their larger stations.
Single type is nice in many ways, but terribly limiting in many other ways.
wedgetail737 wrote:Don't forget that WN and AS will be duking it out at PAE when that ever opens.
USAirKid wrote:wedgetail737 wrote:Don't forget that WN and AS will be duking it out at PAE when that ever opens.
Don't forget UA! (And its really a WN, QX, and UA slugfest.)
jagraham wrote:Hawaii flying is not primarily O&D. Perhaps LA and Vegas could be made that way, but . .
As WN gets started in Hawaii, they need to fly from the places that have the most connections (OAK) or the most O&D (LAX). A case could be made for flying from ONT, but it doesn't make sense to fly from 2 airports in the LA area right now, so LAX is the better choice to start with.
hiflyeras wrote:I’d dispute the theory that half of Hawaii passengers are on miles. The airlines have total control over how many seats are available for redemption. Now WN on the other hand supposedly does NOT limit the number of redemptions per flight. They could be looking at their new Hawaii flights being a huge money loser if they’re carrying big percentages of non-paying passengers. It’s not like their rewards program offers very many exciting/exotic destinations.
jagraham wrote:WN has known of this effect for some time and invested in American Trans Air to offer a way to Hawaii. Unfortunately American Trans Air went bankrupt shortly after the WN investment.
jagraham wrote:These traffic patterns dictate that no area of the US dominates Hawaii travel and connections are critical.
USAirALB wrote:Demise of WN in the PNW
ScottB wrote:jagraham wrote:WN has known of this effect for some time and invested in American Trans Air to offer a way to Hawaii. Unfortunately American Trans Air went bankrupt shortly after the WN investment.
Nope. WN partnered with ATA and invested in ATA in order to get some of ATA's gates at MDW and keep AirTran from getting those gates. AirTran had made an offer for all of ATA's MDW gates but WN offered a better deal which would have let ATA keep 8 of its 14 gates in conjunction with a codeshare with WN.
At the end, WN purchased some of ATA's assets in order to gain ATA's slots at LGA; this was how WN initially entered LGA with its own metal. Had the Hawaii service been so critical, WN could have chosen to restart those operations on the ATA certificate and ultimately merge those into their own.jagraham wrote:These traffic patterns dictate that no area of the US dominates Hawaii travel and connections are critical.
Again, nope. California alone accounts for over one-third of domestic visitors to O'ahu; California & Washington combined send about as many visitors to O'ahu as the entire Eastern & Central time zones in the U.S. More visitors come from Washington State than from Texas. More come from Arizona than from the entire state of New York. The West absolutely dominates demand to Hawaii.USAirALB wrote:Demise of WN in the PNW
At the risk of triggering some, is this "fake news?"
WN's domestic market share at PDX for the 12 months ending June 2007 was 18.42%, carrying just over 2.5 million passengers. For the 12 months ending June 2018, WN carried 3.44 million passengers at PDX with 18.69% domestic market share. WN's market share at both BOI and GEG dropped from 30% to 25% over the same period. At RNO, their share dropped from 50% to 44%. And while WN's share at SEA has dropped from 9.7% to 7.6%, they actually carry about 460K more passengers annually compared to 11 years ago.
A key problem is that the point-to-point markets in the PNW that don't touch SEA have always been very thin. Back in the old days, WN could do just fine with 60% load factors in those markets but that's just not true anymore. Much of the point-to-point QX flying is gone as well. And especially in SEA, it really hasn't been worth WN's while to fight AS for passengers given the County's response to WN's desire to move service to BFI.
hiflyeras wrote:I’d dispute the theory that half of Hawaii passengers are on miles. The airlines have total control over how many seats are available for redemption. Now WN on the other hand supposedly does NOT limit the number of redemptions per flight. They could be looking at their new Hawaii flights being a huge money loser if they’re carrying big percentages of non-paying passengers. It’s not like their rewards program offers very many exciting/exotic destinations.
frmrCapCadet wrote:hiflyeras wrote:I’d dispute the theory that half of Hawaii passengers are on miles. The airlines have total control over how many seats are available for redemption. Now WN on the other hand supposedly does NOT limit the number of redemptions per flight. They could be looking at their new Hawaii flights being a huge money loser if they’re carrying big percentages of non-paying passengers. It’s not like their rewards program offers very many exciting/exotic destinations.
I believe that FF miles are carried on airlines books as a liability, and that liability is wiped out as FF miles are used. An accountant can explain it more accurately. WN expects all FF miles to be used, and strictly accounts for them. Flying to Hawaii will not be a money loser. They likely revamped their FF awards from how many trips your flew to how much you spent on those trips with Hawaii in mind. I have mentioned earlier that I expect WN occasionally make sure every passenger aboard was flying on FF miles - and publicize it to the hilt.
frmrCapCadet wrote:hiflyeras wrote:I’d dispute the theory that half of Hawaii passengers are on miles. The airlines have total control over how many seats are available for redemption. Now WN on the other hand supposedly does NOT limit the number of redemptions per flight. They could be looking at their new Hawaii flights being a huge money loser if they’re carrying big percentages of non-paying passengers. It’s not like their rewards program offers very many exciting/exotic destinations.
I believe that FF miles are carried on airlines books as a liability, and that liability is wiped out as FF miles are used. An accountant can explain it more accurately. WN expects all FF miles to be used, and strictly accounts for them. Flying to Hawaii will not be a money loser. They likely revamped their FF awards from how many trips your flew to how much you spent on those trips with Hawaii in mind. I have mentioned earlier that I expect WN occasionally make sure every passenger aboard was flying on FF miles - and publicize it to the hilt.
Here is my accounting explanation: When you fly and earn FF miles, the airline owes you some money. When you fly lots and lots they owe you a big bunch of money. So you fly your family to Hawaii with all those FF miles, and wipe out that pile of money the airline owed you. If flying your family to Hawaii costs less than what that pile of money was, then the airline made a profit flying all of you to Hawaii.
ps - some airlines don't want you to use those FF miles and keep changing the rules and the points needed, and make it hard to use the miles. WN expects and wants you to use your miles.