https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... n-bautista

I know PR and alliance membership has been an on-again, off-again subject on A.net for a while, but this seems to be the most substantial piece of news we have on it in a while. According to Jaime Bautista, PR is in talks with all three alliances, so I guess it's off to the races as to who is playing ball.

Most of the rumors I've heard in recent years seems to be pointing to Star (which wouldn't be bad), though my money is still on SkyTeam. Given that the PR of 2018 is very different from the PR of 2010, let alone the PR of 2015, I wonder where they'll end up.

I doubt it will be Star. What value could PR bring? Connecting N. America / Australia with SE Asia? You already have SQ, TG, BR, NH, all doing a combination of that. SkyTeam also seems a bit of a stretch. VN and GA have relatively good coverage of SE Asia for Europe/Australia and even Australia-China (to an extent). I would say more likely OneWorld as it could provide good connectivity for N. America / SE Asia (not sure of their coverage of SE Asia... is it better than CX?)

Not that it means anything, but they recently transferred their lounge provider from Plaza Premium to the new SkyTeam Global Lounge in Vancouver. They've also been expanding their codeshare agreements with CI, GA, KE and VN the past few years and even talked about an extensive codeshare partnership with Delta since 2016, so you never know but SkyTeam seems very plausable.

PR also connects a lot of Vietnamese/SE Asia traffic to NA and a growing number are using PR for the Kangaroo route which is more likely to grow since PR is aggressively expanding frequency in AUS with the A321neo. They will also have the only non-stop SE Asia-NYC flight (at least until SQ starts their EWR flights) and are particularly strong in NA compared to many SE Asian carriers, so PR can definately bring value to GA and VN. Coupled with the fact the Philippines is one of the top performing economic centres in Asia with a continuously growing inbound/outbound tourism market, and an elevated inflight product offering that makes it very competitive, It would be fortuitous and very strategic to partner with PR as they continue to expand.

Coal wrote:

(not sure of their coverage of SE Asia... is it better than CX?)

No, except for within the Philippines. For the rest of SE Asia, they serve less destinations than CX and serve less frequently than CX for those they both serve.

The way alliances work, a member would need to help sponsor PR.

For OW, I doubt Cathay would want them. For Star and Skyteam the region is pretty crowded already.

I could have sworn that they were already in SkyTeam....

fusionliner wrote:

They will also have the only non-stop SE Asia-NYC flight (at least until SQ starts their EWR flights) and are particularly strong in NA compared to many SE Asian carriers, so PR can definately bring value to GA and VN.

Among SkyTeam members, MU, CZ, MF, and CI all offer non-stop SE Asia-NYC flights.

Not sure what PR brings anyone?

OW - Cathay only few hundred miles away and probably largest foreign airline to MNL.
ST - Lots of nearby players - CI, VN, all the Chinese airlines, a bit further GA
*A - BR, TG, NH, SQ, CA, OZ, etc has region pretty well covered.

Imo they are probably more than a decade late to the game.

If we ignore the region and instead look to the US which is PR's most important longhaul market, then suppose Star is best as UA is large at both LAX & SFO and could open many dozen domestic markets for connectivity.

If you ask me, PR is more likely to find a strategic/equity partner from a NE Asian airline like JL or KE than end up going through the whole alliance process. As others have mentioned, that neighborhood is already fairly well served by the three alliances. OW might be an exception, but there's always talk of them finding more Asian partners and nothing ever comes of it.

LAXintl wrote:

The way alliances work, a member would need to help sponsor PR.

ShinyAndChrome wrote:

If you ask me, PR is more likely to find a strategic/equity partner from a NE Asian airline like JL or KE than end up going through the whole alliance process.

Rumor has it that NH was likely going to be a strategic equity partner and PR's sponsor into Star, so let's see what happens. PR does have a codeshare relationship with NH both on MNL-HND and on onward domestic service from FUK, KIX, NGO and HND/NRT to other points in Japan.

janders wrote:

Not sure what PR brings anyone?

OW - Cathay only few hundred miles away and probably largest foreign airline to MNL.
ST - Lots of nearby players - CI, VN, all the Chinese airlines, a bit further GA
*A - BR, TG, NH, SQ, CA, OZ, etc has region pretty well covered.

Imo they are probably more than a decade late to the game.

I doubt OW would take PR given CX, and I personally would not want PR in OW for precisely that reason (the concern being that PR would be reduced to merely being a feeder for CX).

PR's value is less in its coverage of Southeast Asia and more in its ability to connect the region with other parts of the world. As mentioned earlier in the thread, PR is the strongest SE Asian carrier to North America, with service to six destinations in the U.S. and Canada (LAX, SFO, JFK, YYZ, YVR, HNL) and bound to grow more. I know ORD is supposed to be a target for future PR service, for one.

VN and GA currently have no service to the Philippines, instead choosing to codeshare with PR, so I see more benefit and less competition from PR's presence in SkyTeam despite the presence of MF, MU, CZ and CI (of the four, only CZ and CI have multiple daily flights to MNL, and MF codeshares with PR on MNL-JJN and vice-versa). Certainly more than TG and SQ in Star, given that both airlines have multiple daily flights to and from MNL and are favored carriers for onward connections to Europe, although I think there may be room.

We can debate the merits of how long PR took to take alliance membership seriously, but if you ask me they stand a better chance in an alliance than entirely outside it.

====

Judging from this tidbit, I think we can sort of deduce which alliance Jaime Bautista may be talking about:

"The alliance membership will help give Philippine Airlines access to more interior points in Europe and North America, as well as the continents of Africa and South America where we can tap new sources of traffic,” he said.

If the focus is on access to Europe and North America, all three alliances can definitely help there. But if we're looking at Africa and South America, that's a whole different ballgame. OW is likely out due to the lack of African connectivity, but the deck is in favor of Star if we're looking at only onward connectivity for Africa and South America ex-MNL.

Akiestar wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

The way alliances work, a member would need to help sponsor PR.

ShinyAndChrome wrote:

If you ask me, PR is more likely to find a strategic/equity partner from a NE Asian airline like JL or KE than end up going through the whole alliance process.

Rumor has it that NH was likely going to be a strategic equity partner and PR's sponsor into Star, so let's see what happens. PR does have a codeshare relationship with NH both on MNL-HND and on onward domestic service from FUK, KIX, NGO and HND/NRT to other points in Japan.

NH took an equity stake in VN, however VN is still quite happily in ST.

IMHO, all the SE Asian carriers have their own niche, but there is little overlap within SE Asia itself, they are quite conservative when it comes to routes within their own region, where LCC's are quite dominant. VN and GA don't even touch the Philippines for example, GA doesn't even fly to Vietnam, whilst they both don't really touch second tier cities in other SE Asian countries either.

tipsyinmadras wrote:

Among SkyTeam members, MU, CZ, MF, and CI all offer non-stop SE Asia-NYC flights.

No they don't. None of PVG, CAN, FOC and TPE is in Southeast Asia. They offer one-stop service via those hubs between NYC and Southeast Asia. So does KE.

My bet is on SkyTeam. GA and VN, the SE Asian airline members of ST, do not fly to the US. PR has that advantage to contribute.
Also, the writing is on the wall as regards DL's intra-Asian flights. With PR in ST, DL can go ahead and drop MNL and have their pax (and they have a lot of loyal Filipino flyers) connect on KE via ICN or PR can even expand their US operations to include MSP or DTW. That's not too far-fetched considering they are already flying to New York and Toronto. Or DL could launch their own nonstop service to MNL from the US.
Also, KLM is the only European carrier serving MNL now. PR and KL have a history of cooperation. If PR joins ST, KL could convert their MNL flight to a nonstop service from AMS (it's currently via TPE).

I think the clue is in the article:

"The alliance membership will help give Philippine Airlines access to more interior points in Europe and North America, as well as the continents of Africa and South America where we can tap new sources of traffic,”

What can PR offer an alliance? Passengers to their existing airline members transiting from the Philippines to multiple points around the world.

Only *A has the connections to do this. It doesn't matter that *A is over-represented in SE Asia PR will not be a hub it will be a feeder to other *A hubs, ET, TK, AC, NH, SQ etc.

flyingdoc787 wrote:

Also, the writing is on the wall as regards DL's intra-Asian flights. With PR in ST, DL can go ahead and drop MNL and have their pax (and they have a lot of loyal Filipino flyers) connect on KE via ICN or PR can even expand their US operations to include MSP or DTW. That's not too far-fetched considering they are already flying to New York and Toronto. Or DL could launch their own nonstop service to MNL from the US.

PR already provides DL feed for trans-Pacific flights outside of MNL (particularly CEB-NRT), so if anything PR will likely continue feeding a Tokyo DL hub. But I won't be surprised if it considers service to DL hubs if such a partnership does happen, or the other way around.

3AWM wrote:

I think the clue is in the article:Only *A has the connections to do this. It doesn't matter that *A is over-represented in SE Asia PR will not be a hub it will be a feeder to other *A hubs, ET, TK, AC, NH, SQ etc.

Perhaps they'll join as the second associate member of "Star Alliance Connecting Partners" (aka member-lite).

I just remembered that in May, PR switched from Sabre to Amadeus. Might that have an influence on the alliance it ultimately settles with? (I ask because in local forums, people are raising that Amadeus is primarily used by airlines in Star, while airlines in oneworld primarily use Sabre. We know that's not exactly true, but it's a fair point for discussion.)

https://amadeus.com/en/insights/press-r ... -ambitions

Actually, majority of oneworld members are now using Amadeus' IT platform (includes Altéa PSS) with 2 (JL and MH) on process of migration from Axess and SITA, respectively. Only AA and LATAM are using Sabre and S7 still uses SITA.

https://www.oneworld.com/news-informati ... t-a-glance

Time to bump this up with some news: PR is eyeing a deal with a strategic investor within the first six months of this year.

If, let's say. NH decides not to be that strategic investor, I wonder who that could be? There's a rumor that DL backed off (though I've not seen it anywhere except in the comments section of TPG), but I guess all bets are off at this point.

Akiestar wrote:

Time to bump this up with some news: PR is eyeing a deal with a strategic investor within the first six months of this year.

If, let's say. NH decides not to be that strategic investor, I wonder who that could be? There's a rumor that DL backed off (though I've not seen it anywhere except in the comments section of TPG), but I guess all bets are off at this point.

Well I do hope it’s NH! But!! At the back of my mind maybe the news were mere press releases only to make noice and increase the value of PR.