Let's see how wide-body deliveries developed the last years. I took 2018 and 2006 as examples.
according to Wikipedia:
B787: from 2011
A350: from 2014
A380: from 2007
That makes a total of 177 wide-body deliveries in 2006.
B767: 27 (tanker/ freighter?)
A340: last 2012
There were 353 wide-bodies without the 27 B767 delivered in 2018. One has to add a few to account for B767 freighters.
I was wondering: There are still MD freighters in the air which need replacing. But is it worth replacing an A330 after 20 years?
From 1998 the A330-300 had a MTOW of 230t. The "A330 and A340 Write off/ Retirement/ Scrap thread" gives the impression as if there are hardly A330s scraped.viewtopic.php?t=1411873
Anybody knows if 230t version are planned to be scraped? I mean scraped for part out, not sold to another airline or returned to lessor.
According to Wikipedia (which seems to rely on flightglobal) as of July 18:
339 of 694 in service
159 of 377 in service
55 of 88 B777-200 in service
338 of 422 B777-200ER in service
50 of 59 B777-200LR in service
48 of 60 B777-300 in service
Even the -300 non-ER versions are good enough to fly passengers and cargo from Europe to the Arabian Gulf. It has an OEW of 161 t and an OEW of 299 t. With un-freedom of the air it may be the right plane for the job. But assuming all these planes are to be replaced, B777s without -300ER add up to below 500.
To replace all B747-400, A340 and B777 (not -300ER) would require around three years wide-body production from July 18 or roughly 2 years from now.
"In July 2018, 742 aircraft were in airline service: 73 -200s, 632 -300 and 37 -400 with 65 -300F on order; the largest operators are Delta Air Lines (77), FedEx (60; largest cargo operator), UPS Airlines (59), United Airlines (51), Japan Airlines (35), All Nippon Airways (34)."https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_767#Operators
If only around 400 B767 got scrapped so far it means nearly all B767 from 1992 onwards are still in service.
Can a B767 only be replaced by a B767 or B797? It is amazing that the plane still soldiers on.
I have no fixed opinion in this. That's why I kept B767 separate from B747-400, A 340 and B777 (not -300ER)
Let's assume the planes produced till 97 have to be replaced till 2023. That's very roughly 250 planes from now. Considering that the planes are small it may equal to a capacity of maybe 6 months worldwide wide-body production.
I doubt A380s beyond the early models get scrapped in quantity before 2030. If they are cheap enough British Airways, unfreedom of the air (e.g. Emirates) and transpacific traffic will make use of them. I may be wrong, though.
So if we assume a flat economy without need to increase capacity 350 planes/ year will require 3-4 years from July 18 (2-3 years from now) to replace all B747-400, A340 and B777 (not -300ER) and before 1997 B767.
By 2022 the world's fleets should be very modern. Obviously an upturn in global economy rubbishes this calculation.
After that replacements will be needed for what are today modern airliners simply because of age. And that is what I wonder about: How long will airlines use a B777-300ER, B787 or A330? If airlines use it as long as B767s, demand looks thin for some years.
Why or with what to replace a B767? Why or with what to replace a B777-300ER or A330 (>230t)?
I believe flights above 10 hours or so get new equipment. But will 8 hour flights require new equipment?
While it sounds amazing, doubling wide-body production from 2006 to more than 350 planes/ year in 2018 was justified. However in two years or so production of wide-bodies will possibly be adjusted.
Is there something wrong if 350 planes/ year are produced for several years and production has to be cut in half afterwards?
Or should we rather say by 2022 or so production has to shift from wide-bodies to narrow-bodies?
My assumptions are too simple? Agreed. It was meant for a rough idea.
In case the world economy stays flat I doubt Boeing's calculation concerning deferred production costs are conservative enough.
If the economy does fine, Boeing's deferred production costs will also do fine.