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New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:15 am

Happy New Year. Welcome to New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019. Please add your comments below

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RainerBoeing777
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -January 2019

Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:09 am

CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -January 2019

Mon Dec 31, 2018 10:36 am

RainerBoeing777 wrote:


Super stuff - apologies if I’ve missed it, but have the timings been announced yet?
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -January 2019

Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:41 pm

DobboDobbo wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:


Super stuff - apologies if I’ve missed it, but have the timings been announced yet?


SIN-CHC 1840/0930, CHC-SIN 1100/1625 -- but the TVNZ report of daily is incorrect. It's five weekly (ex Mo We).

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-r ... e-services

PA515
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -January 2019

Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:53 pm

Air NZ's first A320NEO (msn 8715) will be ZK-NHA.

https://aibfamily.flights/production-list/A320

Air NZ's fourth A321NEO (msn 8629) ZK-NND is now painted and was spotted at XFW on 27 Dec.

https://aibfamily.flights/A320/8629

PA515
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -January 2019

Mon Dec 31, 2018 7:04 pm

PA515 wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:


Super stuff - apologies if I’ve missed it, but have the timings been announced yet?


SIN-CHC 1840/0930, CHC-SIN 1100/1625 -- but the TVNZ report of daily is incorrect. It's five weekly (ex Mo We).

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-r ... e-services

PA515


Many thanks.

Disappointing that the timings are within an hour or so of the usual SQ SIN-CHC-SIN service. I’d hoped the timings would connect better into the bank of SQ arrivals from the EU into SIN but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -January 2019

Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:10 pm

Happy new year all. All the best for 2019!

DobboDobbo wrote:
PA515 wrote:
DobboDobbo wrote:

Super stuff - apologies if I’ve missed it, but have the timings been announced yet?


SIN-CHC 1840/0930, CHC-SIN 1100/1625 -- but the TVNZ report of daily is incorrect. It's five weekly (ex Mo We).

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-r ... e-services

PA515


Many thanks.

Disappointing that the timings are within an hour or so of the usual SQ SIN-CHC-SIN service. I’d hoped the timings would connect better into the bank of SQ arrivals from the EU into SIN but that doesn’t seem to be the case.


Was announced a while back.

The timings mirror the AKL service, this would be partly to do with aircraft rotation, if anything it would be easier for SQ to operate a daylight SIN-CHC service however this flight is for 3 months, if anything I’d think SQ might retime and operate 3 hrs later like they do with AKL now.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:37 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
The timings mirror the AKL service, this would be partly to do with aircraft rotation, if anything it would be easier for SQ to operate a daylight SIN-CHC service however this flight is for 3 months, if anything I’d think SQ might retime and operate 3 hrs later like they do with AKL now.


AKL-SIN is now in the schedule as AKL-SIN 1105/1630, SIN-AKL 1840/0930. I agree with your comment a few weeks back about AKL-ORD going to four weekly from Dec 2019. The only reason for CHC-SIN being five weekly (ex Mo & We) would be so a Mo AKL-ORD can be added, so AKL-ORD Mo We Fr Su. It still leaves one day of down time for the five Code 2 789s and would mean a Code 2 789 CHC-AKL Mo & We, AKL-CHC Tu & Th.

PA515
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:42 am

PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
The timings mirror the AKL service, this would be partly to do with aircraft rotation, if anything it would be easier for SQ to operate a daylight SIN-CHC service however this flight is for 3 months, if anything I’d think SQ might retime and operate 3 hrs later like they do with AKL now.


AKL-SIN is now in the schedule as AKL-SIN 1105/1630, SIN-AKL 1840/0930. I agree with your comment a few weeks back about AKL-ORD going to four weekly from Dec 2019. The only reason for CHC-SIN being five weekly (ex Mo & We) would be so a Mo AKL-ORD can be added, so AKL-ORD Mo We Fr Su. It still leaves one day of down time for the five Code 2 789s and would mean a Code 2 789 CHC-AKL Mo & We, AKL-CHC Tu & Th.

PA515



They could also rotate the aircraft via PER however I’m not sure there is enough slack and enough to increase ORD?

I’m not sure CHC-SIN needs to be daily yet hence the 5 weekly, it replaces a 3 weekly SQ seasonal service while also making up a little for SQ using the Lower capacity A359.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:09 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
They could also rotate the aircraft via PER however I’m not sure there is enough slack and enough to increase ORD?

PER is a 'Code 1' 789, so unlikely. And then only the Sat arriving PER-CHC gets close, but not close enough on the present schedule.

There's room in the schedule for a Mon AKL-ORD-AKL.

The Sun SIN-CHC arrives Mon, then a Mon CHC-AKL, then a Mon AKL-ORD-AKL returning Wed. The Sun ORD-AKL arrives Tue, then a Tue AKL-CHC, then the Tue CHC-SIN-CHC, then a Wed CHC-AKL, then the Wed AKL-ORD-AKL etc. The one day of 'Code 2' 789 downtime would change from Tue to Wed to Wed to Thu. Then a Thu AKL-CHC, then the Thu CHC-SIN etc.

Not sure if AKL-HKG will remain a 'Code 2' 789 or revert back to a 77E.

PA515
 
ZKOAB
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread -January 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:01 am

PA515 wrote:
Air NZ's first A320NEO (msn 8715) will be ZK-NHA.

https://aibfamily.flights/production-list/A320

Air NZ's fourth A321NEO (msn 8629) ZK-NND is now painted and was spotted at XFW on 27 Dec.

https://aibfamily.flights/A320/8629

PA515


Any word on ETA for delivery? I assume NND will be later this month?
Is ZK-MVX still on course for March delivery?

I’m also wondering if the remaining Q300’s will still be repainted along with 772 ZK-OKG.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:28 am

PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
They could also rotate the aircraft via PER however I’m not sure there is enough slack and enough to increase ORD?

PER is a 'Code 1' 789, so unlikely. And then only the Sat arriving PER-CHC gets close, but not close enough on the present schedule.

There's room in the schedule for a Mon AKL-ORD-AKL.

The Sun SIN-CHC arrives Mon, then a Mon CHC-AKL, then a Mon AKL-ORD-AKL returning Wed. The Sun ORD-AKL arrives Tue, then a Tue AKL-CHC, then the Tue CHC-SIN-CHC, then a Wed CHC-AKL, then the Wed AKL-ORD-AKL etc. The one day of 'Code 2' 789 downtime would change from Tue to Wed to Wed to Thu. Then a Thu AKL-CHC, then the Thu CHC-SIN etc.

Not sure if AKL-HKG will remain a 'Code 2' 789 or revert back to a 77E.

PA515


Right now NZ’s own 77E’s run
AKL-YVR x7
AKL-EZE x5
AKL-IAH x5
AKL-HNLx5
AKL-SFO x1
AKL-PER x2-3

There is some slack there but covering other fleets aswell. The 772’s usually do NZ101/102-105/108 AKL-SYD Vv with the same frame aswell where as all the other short hauls are done between long hauls
 
GW54
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:10 pm

Hi. Not sure about NND or MVX deliveries or Q300 repaints but OKG has been thru maintenance in SIN and has returned with WIFI and been re painted. All 777's are in silver fern exceptions being OKH and OKQ both black.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:09 pm

ZKOAB wrote:
Any word on ETA for delivery? I assume NND will be later this month?
Is ZK-MVX still on course for March delivery?

I’m also wondering if the remaining Q300’s will still be repainted along with 772 ZK-OKG.


A320NEO ZK-NHA (msn 8715) should be delivered in Feb/Mar plus another four by 30 Jun 2019.

A321NEOs ZK-NND (msn 8629) should be delivered in Jan and ZK-NNE (msn 8799) probably Mar/Apr.

ATR72-600 ZK-MVX (msn 1551) should be delivered in Feb as msn 1535, 1537, 1539 and 1543 were delivered in Dec 2018. Another ATR72-600 (ZK-MVZ?) is due by 30 Jun 2019.

77E ZK-OKG returned from SIN 10 Dec 2018.

As for the eight Q300s not repainted, I expect them to be repainted this year. QF has been hogging the Flying Colours facilities in TSV and still have twelve Q400s and two Q200s to be repainted, which is about seven months work.

Also ZK-MCO has not flown since 29 Oct 2018 and this extended maintenance could be why ZK-MCB has returned to service.

PA515
 
ZKOAB
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:32 am

PA515 wrote:
A320NEO ZK-NHA (msn 8715) should be delivered in Feb/Mar plus another four by 30 Jun 2019.

A321NEOs ZK-NND (msn 8629) should be delivered in Jan and ZK-NNE (msn 8799) probably Mar/Apr.

ATR72-600 ZK-MVX (msn 1551) should be delivered in Feb as msn 1535, 1537, 1539 and 1543 were delivered in Dec 2018. Another ATR72-600 (ZK-MVZ?) is due by 30 Jun 2019.

77E ZK-OKG returned from SIN 10 Dec 2018.

As for the eight Q300s not repainted, I expect them to be repainted this year. QF has been hogging the Flying Colours facilities in TSV and still have twelve Q400s and two Q200s to be repainted, which is about seven months work.

Also ZK-MCO has not flown since 29 Oct 2018 and this extended maintenance could be why ZK-MCB has returned to service.

PA515


Fantastic info PA515 - thank you!
I wasn't aware of OKG but great to see it's just the Q300's that need the repaint now (albeit QF hogging FC). The additional info into why MCB was subbed in makes sense too.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:22 am

On the subject of the Q300 - any further thoughts on what will replace them? I note the oldest is 13yr and the newest will be 10yr this year. ATR42? or just upsize to the ATR72 across the fleet? There are only 18 more seats in the ATR72 vs the current Q300 so not that big a jump.
77West - AW109S - BE90 - JS31 - B1900 - Q300 - ATR72 - DC9-30 - MD80 - B733 - A320 - B738 - A300-B4 - B773 - B77W
 
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seat55a
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:01 am

A left field question for the historians...In the Polynesian pools in Rotorua there is a mural of sailing canoes with a label saying it was from the NZ DC10 fleet. How was this used? Presuming the approx 2x5meter plaster on canvas original work was not actually mounted in a plane. Google turns up a different work held in Turnbull library but not this one.
 
aerohottie
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:03 am

It's 2019 and time for some future gazing.

2019 Predictions:
1- NZ will choose the A350-900 as the 772ER replacement, and signal the A350-1000 for future 773ER replacement
2- Economic recession will hit before New York or other ULR routes are announced
3- NZ will launch a new business class seat, and my guess is customised versions of either the Apex or Optima seats
4- VA will transfer some tasman routes to Tiger, and possibly open some NZ domestic routes with Tiger also
5- The QF/AA JV will be approved in Australia, QF and AA will announce new routes including AKL-DFW

2019 Wishlist:
1- JQ (or anyone else) will open domestic lounges in competition to NZ/Koru
2- A220's to service NZ (by anyone, especially domestically!!! - OMG)
3- SQ to operate direct A350 flights on WLG-SIN (even if only for May when I want to go to Italy :-P ).

What are your 2019 predictions and wishlist?
What?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:48 am

aerohottie wrote:
It's 2019 and time for some future gazing.

2019 Predictions:
1- NZ will choose the A350-900 as the 772ER replacement, and signal the A350-1000 for future 773ER replacement
2- Economic recession will hit before New York or other ULR routes are announced
3- NZ will launch a new business class seat, and my guess is customised versions of either the Apex or Optima seats
4- VA will transfer some tasman routes to Tiger, and possibly open some NZ domestic routes with Tiger also
5- The QF/AA JV will be approved in Australia, QF and AA will announce new routes including AKL-DFW

2019 Wishlist:
1- JQ (or anyone else) will open domestic lounges in competition to NZ/Koru
2- A220's to service NZ (by anyone, especially domestically!!! - OMG)
3- SQ to operate direct A350 flights on WLG-SIN (even if only for May when I want to go to Italy :-P ).

What are your 2019 predictions and wishlist?


1. I've long been told that's the way it was heading but there seems to be a lot of Boeing "smoke" at the moment.
2. NYC isn't on the cards for a while. ORD still needs to prove itself and stabilise, mirror IAH - having said that IAH was performed well beyond expectations.
3. Well we know its coming, don't expect too much this far out, will be out of date before it's installed.
4. Won't happen that soon. VA has committed to the Tasman for a while things like opening lounges in WLG, means they've committed their primary brand here for a while, besides, I can't see TR offering low enough fares between the main centres, well, low enough to make more of a dent than VA/JQ can.
5. Gosh, I hope so.


To add to your wishlist,
1. JQ open more regional routes
2. AIAL provides commitment/ timeline and detailed plans of the Domestic terminal move.
3. AIAL sorts their s**t out and fast tracks another 5-6 gates
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:25 am

The possibility of a "Code 3" 789 that NZ has raised changes the whole 772ER replacement strategy discussion pretty significantly. If the airline can make a 789 work on its proposed ULH routes, then this not only damages the possibility of Airbus winning the order with the A359, but also probably puts Boeing in the box seat for the eventual 773ER replacement. To my mind, the Airbus option was always going to be a mix of A359 and A35K to replace a mix of 772 and 773 aircraft, with some economies arising from the total 15+ aircraft fleet size. Without the A359 replacing the 772ER, then the 773ER replacement becomes a shoot-out between the A35K and the 778/9; with the 778/9 having the advantage because of the cockpit similarities between these and the 789.

I do worry about the weight of the 77X though - we're talking about hauling a lot of dead weight around the skies for a good number of years, at potentially significant extra cost. And the 778 still risks being a niche aircraft that sells only to a handful of carriers, and therefore may need to be written down faster than the Airbus equivalent. I guess we'll all be better informed in just a few months . . .
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
Gemuser
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:42 am

aerohottie wrote:
It's 2019 and time for some future gazing.

2019 Predictions:

5- The QF/AA JV will be approved in Australia, QF and AA will announce new routes including AKL-DFW

The QF/AA JV was approved in Australia last year. Did you mean in the USA?

Gemuser
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:46 pm

NZ6 wrote:
aerohottie wrote:
It's 2019 and time for some future gazing.

2019 Predictions:
1- NZ will choose the A350-900 as the 772ER replacement, and signal the A350-1000 for future 773ER replacement
2- Economic recession will hit before New York or other ULR routes are announced
3- NZ will launch a new business class seat, and my guess is customised versions of either the Apex or Optima seats
4- VA will transfer some tasman routes to Tiger, and possibly open some NZ domestic routes with Tiger also
5- The QF/AA JV will be approved in Australia, QF and AA will announce new routes including AKL-DFW

2019 Wishlist:
1- JQ (or anyone else) will open domestic lounges in competition to NZ/Koru
2- A220's to service NZ (by anyone, especially domestically!!! - OMG)
3- SQ to operate direct A350 flights on WLG-SIN (even if only for May when I want to go to Italy :-P ).

What are your 2019 predictions and wishlist?


1. I've long been told that's the way it was heading but there seems to be a lot of Boeing "smoke" at the moment.
2. NYC isn't on the cards for a while. ORD still needs to prove itself and stabilise, mirror IAH - having said that IAH was performed well beyond expectations.
3. Well we know its coming, don't expect too much this far out, will be out of date before it's installed.
4. Won't happen that soon. VA has committed to the Tasman for a while things like opening lounges in WLG, means they've committed their primary brand here for a while, besides, I can't see TR offering low enough fares between the main centres, well, low enough to make more of a dent than VA/JQ can.
5. Gosh, I hope so.


To add to your wishlist,
1. JQ open more regional routes
2. AIAL provides commitment/ timeline and detailed plans of the Domestic terminal move.
3. AIAL sorts their s**t out and fast tracks another 5-6 gates



Is this Boeing smoke just on the Internet though? Or is it from with in NZ internally? To answer my own question there must be some rumblings from within NZ which have been leaked. The travel talk article while it didn’t seem to mention airbus hardly and could be called biased is certainly along the lines I have always thought, not that what I think matters or means anything. Here’s my latest thoughts

6 78K from late 2020, SIN/HKG/TYO/PVG/HNL/PER
4 789 code 3 from 2022 EWR/GRU

People are saying the 778 will be more efficient than a 77W, and maybe a small fleet just for LAX/LHR and if the ULH routes do really well then add a few more.

Will they keep the code 1 configuration 789 or change then all to code 2? If the above Asian routes went 78K, additional frequency on those Asian routes could still be 789.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:26 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
The possibility of a "Code 3" 789 that NZ has raised changes the whole 772ER replacement strategy discussion pretty significantly. If the airline can make a 789 work on its proposed ULH routes, then this not only damages the possibility of Airbus winning the order with the A359, but also probably puts Boeing in the box seat for the eventual 773ER replacement. To my mind, the Airbus option was always going to be a mix of A359 and A35K to replace a mix of 772 and 773 aircraft, with some economies arising from the total 15+ aircraft fleet size. Without the A359 replacing the 772ER, then the 773ER replacement becomes a shoot-out between the A35K and the 778/9; with the 778/9 having the advantage because of the cockpit similarities between these and the 789.

I do worry about the weight of the 77X though - we're talking about hauling a lot of dead weight around the skies for a good number of years, at potentially significant extra cost. And the 778 still risks being a niche aircraft that sells only to a handful of carriers, and therefore may need to be written down faster than the Airbus equivalent. I guess we'll all be better informed in just a few months . . .


There are so many ways to look at this.

NZ needs to look at where the 772 is being deployed now and where it will be deployed over the next 20 years. Once you have that answer you need to look at
- What capacity do you need?
- What number of J, Y and U seats do you want
- What range is required

Both the 789 and 359 can fly similar (ULR) range when needed, what changes between your options is how many people you can have down the back. So, if NZ is happy with 180Y, 30J and 40U seats and that works the 787 is a serious contender. If they need 30J but still need 240Y seats the A359 comes in with a config like OZ (https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Asian ... 50-900.php)

However, they also need to factor in the 14 widebody aircraft in their fleet and still arriving in their fleet which will be around for the next 15 years.

Once the 772 is replaced, the 77W will sort itself out. NZ won't get the A35K to replace the 77W if they go Boeing to replace the 772. You'll see a 77X order or more 789's again.

What I suspect will happen is we're about to see an order of 8 787's with options for 10-20.

This will be either be 8x 78J deployed into 772/789 routes HKG, LAX, SIN, TYO etc freeing some up older frames for a code 3 config change but still adding capacity into key markets or a 789/78J split.

The 77W could then be part of a 78J top-up order.

So we'll see
78J's operating into key markets around that 12,000km mark (LAX/SFO/HKG/SIN) and having +/-40 J seats along with +/- 300 Y & U seats
787 in 3 codes
- Code 1: Asia
- Code 2: North America
- Code 3: URL routes (NYC/ABC)
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:34 pm

aerohottie wrote:
2- A220's to service NZ (by anyone, especially domestically!!! - OMG


The A220-300 might have an chance once they look at replacing the ZK-OX* A320 fleet in a couple of years time, the recent additional 7x 321NEO’s that we’re added to the order for Domestic could signal an change long time in the domestic fleet.

Example:
7x 321NEO (230 seats) for AKL-CHC/WLG
12x 220-200s (150 seats) for the other routes eg WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN etc and maybe open up some new routes / allow some smaller port Tasman services ex WLG/CHC
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:04 pm

NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
The possibility of a "Code 3" 789 that NZ has raised changes the whole 772ER replacement strategy discussion pretty significantly. If the airline can make a 789 work on its proposed ULH routes, then this not only damages the possibility of Airbus winning the order with the A359, but also probably puts Boeing in the box seat for the eventual 773ER replacement. To my mind, the Airbus option was always going to be a mix of A359 and A35K to replace a mix of 772 and 773 aircraft, with some economies arising from the total 15+ aircraft fleet size. Without the A359 replacing the 772ER, then the 773ER replacement becomes a shoot-out between the A35K and the 778/9; with the 778/9 having the advantage because of the cockpit similarities between these and the 789.

I do worry about the weight of the 77X though - we're talking about hauling a lot of dead weight around the skies for a good number of years, at potentially significant extra cost. And the 778 still risks being a niche aircraft that sells only to a handful of carriers, and therefore may need to be written down faster than the Airbus equivalent. I guess we'll all be better informed in just a few months . . .


There are so many ways to look at this.

NZ needs to look at where the 772 is being deployed now and where it will be deployed over the next 20 years. Once you have that answer you need to look at
- What capacity do you need?
- What number of J, Y and U seats do you want
- What range is required

Both the 789 and 359 can fly similar (ULR) range when needed, what changes between your options is how many people you can have down the back. So, if NZ is happy with 180Y, 30J and 40U seats and that works the 787 is a serious contender. If they need 30J but still need 240Y seats the A359 comes in with a config like OZ (https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Asian ... 50-900.php)

However, they also need to factor in the 14 widebody aircraft in their fleet and still arriving in their fleet which will be around for the next 15 years.

Once the 772 is replaced, the 77W will sort itself out. NZ won't get the A35K to replace the 77W if they go Boeing to replace the 772. You'll see a 77X order or more 789's again.

What I suspect will happen is we're about to see an order of 8 787's with options for 10-20.

This will be either be 8x 78J deployed into 772/789 routes HKG, LAX, SIN, TYO etc freeing some up older frames for a code 3 config change but still adding capacity into key markets or a 789/78J split.

The 77W could then be part of a 78J top-up order.

So we'll see
78J's operating into key markets around that 12,000km mark (LAX/SFO/HKG/SIN) and having +/-40 J seats along with +/- 300 Y & U seats
787 in 3 codes
- Code 1: Asia
- Code 2: North America
- Code 3: URL routes (NYC/ABC)


That makes a lot of sense, the 78K I believe will be improved and and NZ may be reluctant to go to the much bigger more capable 77X, NZ can wait on the 77W replacement these are only 4.5-8 years old now, so could stick around till 2030 easily until Boeing can get enough out of the 78K to do AKL-LAX/SFO.

Anymore 787 orders to me would signal no A350 at all. They could use 14 789’s and 16 A350’s but they can do almost the exact same imo with 30 787’s.

zkncj wrote:
aerohottie wrote:
2- A220's to service NZ (by anyone, especially domestically!!! - OMG


The A220-300 might have an chance once they look at replacing the ZK-OX* A320 fleet in a couple of years time, the recent additional 7x 321NEO’s that we’re added to the order for Domestic could signal an change long time in the domestic fleet.

Example:
7x 321NEO (230 seats) for AKL-CHC/WLG
12x 220-200s (150 seats) for the other routes eg WLG-CHC, CHC-ZQN etc and maybe open up some new routes / allow some smaller port Tasman services ex WLG/CHC


Dreams are free, seems pretty unlikely. The A220 while now an Airbus is totally different in so many ways, I’m sure some parts will be changed but I doubt NZ would be interested.

How long do we think they will keep the OX- series A320’s? Are they owned/leased?
 
aerohottie
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:55 pm

Gemuser wrote:
aerohottie wrote:
It's 2019 and time for some future gazing.

2019 Predictions:

5- The QF/AA JV will be approved in Australia, QF and AA will announce new routes including AKL-DFW

The QF/AA JV was approved in Australia last year. Did you mean in the USA?

Gemuser

Ummm sure :-P
I thought it was the other way around for some reason, with approval in the US already given. I missed that one...
What?
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:24 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
So we'll see
78J's operating into key markets around that 12,000km mark (LAX/SFO/HKG/SIN) and having +/-40 J seats along with +/- 300 Y & U seats
787 in 3 codes
- Code 1: Asia
- Code 2: North America
- Code 3: URL routes (NYC/ABC)

That makes a lot of sense, the 78K I believe will be improved and and NZ may be reluctant to go to the much bigger more capable 77X, NZ can wait on the 77W replacement these are only 4.5-8 years old now, so could stick around till 2030 easily until Boeing can get enough out of the 78K to do AKL-LAX/SFO.

Anymore 787 orders to me would signal no A350 at all. They could use 14 789’s and 16 A350’s but they can do almost the exact same imo with 30 787’s.

Yes, I think there's a good chance of NZ becoming a one-LH-type carrier, using the 789 and 78J, assuming that the posted range of the 78J (6400 nm) is adequate to fly AKL-LAX (6500 statute miles) without restrictions (or, until the 78J's capability is improved). My understanding was the the 78J was originally considered not to be a contender for AKL-LAX, but that may have changed?

Looking at the OEW figures, the 778 carries fully 46 tonnes extra dead weight around with it all the time compared with the 78J. Surely, surely, surely that must be a very significant disadvantage. almost a deal-breaker, given the supposed capabilities of a Code 3 789??
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NYKiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:44 am

Couple of comments about potential new order for just 787 mix only.

What is the freight capacity on these birds as this would be a consideration and in some ways more so than number of seats down the back. Not sure what cargo capacity there is on the ORD flight with a code 2, and understand code 3 would be like the QF birds but this is a big peice of revenue for NZ.

AIAL will need to speed up there plans as there will be alot of aircraft in the NZ fleet lol.

If they go all 787 I'd like to think they'd address the seat pitch in back 31inches is just too tight
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:58 am

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
So we'll see
78J's operating into key markets around that 12,000km mark (LAX/SFO/HKG/SIN) and having +/-40 J seats along with +/- 300 Y & U seats
787 in 3 codes
- Code 1: Asia
- Code 2: North America
- Code 3: URL routes (NYC/ABC)

That makes a lot of sense, the 78K I believe will be improved and and NZ may be reluctant to go to the much bigger more capable 77X, NZ can wait on the 77W replacement these are only 4.5-8 years old now, so could stick around till 2030 easily until Boeing can get enough out of the 78K to do AKL-LAX/SFO.

Anymore 787 orders to me would signal no A350 at all. They could use 14 789’s and 16 A350’s but they can do almost the exact same imo with 30 787’s.

Yes, I think there's a good chance of NZ becoming a one-LH-type carrier, using the 789 and 78J, assuming that the posted range of the 78J (6400 nm) is adequate to fly AKL-LAX (6500 statute miles) without restrictions (or, until the 78J's capability is improved). My understanding was the the 78J was originally considered not to be a contender for AKL-LAX, but that may have changed?

Looking at the OEW figures, the 778 carries fully 46 tonnes extra dead weight around with it all the time compared with the 78J. Surely, surely, surely that must be a very significant disadvantage. almost a deal-breaker, given the supposed capabilities of a Code 3 789??


To add to this, the 78J was originally preferred but changed to the 789 almost or over a decade ago, these aircraft still may not arrive for another 4 years and Luxon has made comments about 'extra range'. It's all starting to line up. My guess Boeing will have found aircraft improvements, engine improvements and with the way NZ will configure it, AKL-LAX/SFO will be doable if this the final way forward.

I would say SFO needs to be 78J operatable as well. IAH, YVR, IAH, EZE, NYC are all nice 789 routes.

Imagine that, A320 family and 787 family.
 
GW54
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:24 am

Another rumour now circulating. Air NZ to remain all Boeing. April announcement will be 787-10. These aircraft will be used to replace 787-9 to free up -9 aircraft to operate longer sectors currently being operated by 77E plus opening new routes. Benefits of 787-10 are it will allow for regional growth on key routes into Asia plus capacity increases into the likes of Perth,Honolulu etc without introducing a new type. The 787-9 fleet will undergoing refurb and re config and this will result in a LH and ULH mix. Next decision will be 777w replacement but that wont be addressed until sometime into the future. The 777W replacement is not seen as a priority.
 
aviationaware
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:06 am

What makes some people here believe that NZ will order A350 as replacement for 77Es? They already operate the 789 which fits the bill perfectly and should also be able to do the ULH routes ANZ is looking at, since AKL-JFK is shorter than PER-LHR. Or are the winds that different? Can't see the A350 there for the life of it. The 77Ws are still very new so their replacement will probably not play a huge role. There could even potentially be a re-engined 78J available by the time they come up for replacement. I know their lease periods are not very long, but they could be extended easily in this market.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:40 am

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
So we'll see
78J's operating into key markets around that 12,000km mark (LAX/SFO/HKG/SIN) and having +/-40 J seats along with +/- 300 Y & U seats
787 in 3 codes
- Code 1: Asia
- Code 2: North America
- Code 3: URL routes (NYC/ABC)

That makes a lot of sense, the 78K I believe will be improved and and NZ may be reluctant to go to the much bigger more capable 77X, NZ can wait on the 77W replacement these are only 4.5-8 years old now, so could stick around till 2030 easily until Boeing can get enough out of the 78K to do AKL-LAX/SFO.

Anymore 787 orders to me would signal no A350 at all. They could use 14 789’s and 16 A350’s but they can do almost the exact same imo with 30 787’s.

Yes, I think there's a good chance of NZ becoming a one-LH-type carrier, using the 789 and 78J, assuming that the posted range of the 78J (6400 nm) is adequate to fly AKL-LAX (6500 statute miles) without restrictions (or, until the 78J's capability is improved). My understanding was the the 78J was originally considered not to be a contender for AKL-LAX, but that may have changed?

Looking at the OEW figures, the 778 carries fully 46 tonnes extra dead weight around with it all the time compared with the 78J. Surely, surely, surely that must be a very significant disadvantage. almost a deal-breaker, given the supposed capabilities of a Code 3 789??


The 78J as it is I believe would need some improvement, but for it to do LAX/SFO it would probably be when the 77W replacement comes so atleast 6-7 years away, plenty of time to find some improvement imo.

NZ will be talking to looking at QF/UA on routes like SFO-SIN, PER-LHR in regards to performance on ULH.

aviationaware wrote:
What makes some people here believe that NZ will order A350 as replacement for 77Es? They already operate the 789 which fits the bill perfectly and should also be able to do the ULH routes ANZ is looking at, since AKL-JFK is shorter than PER-LHR. Or are the winds that different? Can't see the A350 there for the life of it. The 77Ws are still very new so their replacement will probably not play a huge role. There could even potentially be a re-engined 78J available by the time they come up for replacement. I know their lease periods are not very long, but they could be extended easily in this market.


It is Airbus best long haul aircraft ever, I think people think the fact that the 359/35K are almost identical in size to the 772/77W makes people think they would order it. NYC-AKL would have strong winds I’d imagine similar distance to SFO-SIN? The reason the 77W replacement is mentioned is because whatever replaces the 772 will likely replace the 77W several years later.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:06 am

aviationaware wrote:
PER - LHR

ZK-NBT wrote:
SFO - SIN

QF and UA's 789's are far less dense than NZ's, and both of these cited routes can support low-density premium-heavy configurations, given the nature of commercial links. For example, the MEL - PER - LHR routing ties-in well with the geographic spread of companies like BHP, Rio and others, who spend big. Further, think about the massive tech industry ties between the SFO and SIN - Facebook and Google have global HQ's near SFO, and APAC HQ's in SIN, and both companies also spend big.

Do people think that AKL and NYC have the same level of premium-supporting commercial links, to support such a low-density configuration? Would premium tourism be a sufficient filler? The split from VA also makes NZ less attractive to premium transfer traffic from SYD and MEL, which is definitely needed to support a low-density AKL - NYC flight. New Zealand's premium perishable air freight industry might make something with a higher cargo capacity more attractive for AKL - NYC, than a 789.

However, this is just an opinion - I appreciate there are a whole range of other factors supporting the 789's use here.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4299
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:10 am

aerohottie wrote:
SQ to operate direct A350 flights on WLG-SIN ...

IIRC, the results of the 359 testing in WLG last year were not released. This could signal that they were negative, not allowing the 359 to safely perform routes like WLG - SIN. I hope that this is not the case though.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7026
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:20 am

planemanofnz wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
PER - LHR

ZK-NBT wrote:
SFO - SIN

QF and UA's 789's are far less dense than NZ's, and both of these cited routes can support low-density premium-heavy configurations, given the nature of commercial links. For example, the MEL - PER - LHR routing ties-in well with the geographic spread of companies like BHP, Rio and others, who spend big. Further, think about the massive tech industry ties between the SFO and SIN - Facebook and Google have global HQ's near SFO, and APAC HQ's in SIN, and both companies also spend big.

Do people think that AKL and NYC have the same level of premium-supporting commercial links, to support such a low-density configuration? Would premium tourism be a sufficient filler? The split from VA also makes NZ less attractive to premium transfer traffic from SYD and MEL, which is definitely needed to support a low-density AKL - NYC flight. New Zealand's premium perishable air freight industry might make something with a higher cargo capacity more attractive for AKL - NYC, than a 789.

However, this is just an opinion - I appreciate there are a whole range of other factors supporting the 789's use here.

Cheers,

C.


Welcome back and happy new year to you.

Interesting point, I’m not sure the configuration needs to be that premium heavy, I doubt NZ will simply remove 30Y seats but more likely 50ish but increase Premium seating, I wonder about a 33J, 47W, 170Y configuration so 250 seats. These ULH routes say NYC/GRU would start 3 weekly like ORD I’d have thought. I wonder if a 300 odd seat A359 would be to much?

I could be wrong and maybe that is to many premium seats?
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:47 am

planemanofnz wrote:
aerohottie wrote:
SQ to operate direct A350 flights on WLG-SIN ...

IIRC, the results of the 359 testing in WLG last year were not released. This could signal that they were negative, not allowing the 359 to safely perform routes like WLG - SIN. I hope that this is not the case though.

Cheers,

C.


I'd be shocked if it couldn't do WLG-MEL-SIN. But here's hoping the testing shows WLG-SIN non stop is doable.

The testing could've also shown that the runway extension with full overrun areas is enough to support non-stop WLG-SIN. Hopefully WIAL were smart enough to get access to the results.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:55 pm

I’m less-inclined to see a 78J order on reflection, given the continued operation of the 77W fleet for a good few years yet. Some have suggested that the 78J could be used to boost capacity on Asian routes, but this runs counter to the stated strategy of building capacity through frequency, looking to the longer-term potential of Asia to Latin America traffic. I’d therefore see a one-for-one replacement of the 77Es with 789s, the majority of them in a Code 3 configuration. As others have pointed out, the 78J may be a suitable replacement at a much later stage (ie when the 77Ws are up for replacement and if it’s by then LAX-capable). The more I think about the 778 the more I think about those 46 tonnes of extra dead weight it carries compared to the 78J. But right now the need is for an aircraft that can meet existing 77E route requirements and further to operate ULH routes. A mix of Code 2 and Code 3 789s ticks both boxes.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
tealnz
Posts: 587
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:49 pm

The Luxon interview has certainly got the 787 fans in a lather of excitement. Maybe time to sober up a bit. We’re losing sight of a few things:

- Over the past year NZ management have talked up the 359/35K as much as they have the 77X. The safest assumption right now is that Luxon/NZ management want to keep both manufacturers uncertain and hungry. We’ve seen nothing to suggest either technical factors or financials have changed recently.
- Reference to a Code 3 789 is new. But that option must have been visible at least from the time QF announced PER-LHR.
- There has been no talk of a 78J for North America. The investor day comments in June pointed out the limited range of the 78J and talked of it as similar to the 767 in terms of effective range.
- It remains to be seen what lay behind Luxon’s comment on Boeing looking for extra range from the 789. In terms of what’s available for an April order the assumption has to be that we’re talking at best about marginal improvements from engines and aero. There has been no hint from other industry sources that Boeing is looking at serious engineering work to bring range closer to the 359.
- The idea that NZ might choose higher premium 789s to replace the 77Es hinges on a major change in their business model for North America. That needs a board level decision on strategy. It would have to be underpinned by a sustained shift in passenger mix on those routes to something more like QF. We’ve heard nothing to substantiate such a shift.
- It would also have implications for cargo - which seems to be a bigger share of the business for NZ than many competitors. Code 3 789s on ULH routes would have to be factored out of NZ’s freight capacity.
- In the event we come up with satisfactory answers on these questions - ie if the Code 3 789 satisfies the 77E replacement need - you’re left with a significant longer-term problem: the 77W replacement. Buying a single type (359/35K or 778/779) as a 77E replacement gives you a viable fleet size - 16+. But if you’re just replacing the 77W your fleet size gets marginal.

A few answers needed here guys...
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:10 pm

tealnz wrote:
The Luxon interview has certainly got the 787 fans in a lather of excitement. Maybe time to sober up a bit.

It’s not so much a lather of excitement in favour of the 789 (I previously thought that the A350 was a shoo-in) as a recognition that the announcement that a “Code 3” 789 was being seriously considered has changed the game. Up to now NZ has been very lukewarm about the 789 as an ULH aircraft but, it seems, not any more. The excuse for not opening EWR earlier has always been that they lacked a sufficiently capable aircraft. What is now apparent (reinforced, no doubt, by QF’s experience on PER-LHR) is that the real barrier is the configuration, not the aircraft. Put the 789 in the mix as a potential 77E replacement and the whole discussion changes radically.

I could see an order for perhaps 12 more 789s - eight as replacements for the 77E fleet, and four to service new ULH destinations such as EWR and GRU. Or, indeed, 12 A359s - on the same basis. But why have two aircraft types of similar size when one could do the job?

I could imagine a fleet of 100 plus aircraft from just three families eventually:

35-ish 789/78J
35-ish A320/321
40-ish ATR42/72

Such a mix would be very tidy from an operational point of view yet still offer eight (or more) combinations of size and range (assuming three 789 configurations). Pretty much covers all bases - except perhaps the gap in between AT7 and 320 in size terms, which may be a limiting factor in the development of new short-haul international routes.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:40 am

Former Air NZ A320 ZK-OJG flew CHC-TSV on 03 Jan 2019, no doubt for a repaint at Flying Colours in TSV.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-ojg

PA515
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:45 am

DavidByrne wrote:
I’m less-inclined to see a 78J order on reflection, given the continued operation of the 77W fleet for a good few years yet. Some have suggested that the 78J could be used to boost capacity on Asian routes, but this runs counter to the stated strategy of building capacity through frequency, looking to the longer-term potential of Asia to Latin America traffic. I’d therefore see a one-for-one replacement of the 77Es with 789s, the majority of them in a Code 3 configuration. As others have pointed out, the 78J may be a suitable replacement at a much later stage (ie when the 77Ws are up for replacement and if it’s by then LAX-capable). The more I think about the 778 the more I think about those 46 tonnes of extra dead weight it carries compared to the 78J. But right now the need is for an aircraft that can meet existing 77E route requirements and further to operate ULH routes. A mix of Code 2 and Code 3 789s ticks both boxes.


I don't think we're going to see an order for an eight in eight out single switch. It's going to be a complete design of what their long-haul fleet looks for like the next 15+ years and what will be sent where. They'll have a calculated idea that in 2025+/- what markets will be able to supply the extra capacity for the 78J, likely to be LAX/SFO/LHR maybe HKG/TYO. Obviously current 77W routes but also other routes which are growing again and used to have the 744 and/or would preform with more capacity but not the 400 seats size. It may not also be 7x 78J to replace the 7x 77W in the fleet. It may be 5 or it could be 9.

NZ's not trying to replace the 77E and 77W with a newer version of the same thing as it doesn't really exist. It's either bigger in the 77X or smaller in the 787. Remember they didn't replace the 240 seat 767 with something similar either.

If this goes Boeing which is looking more and more likely, it's a question of
1. How many of each variant
2. How many LOPA's will there be
3. When will each type come online and roll out the 777 fleet.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:46 am

tealnz wrote:
The Luxon interview has certainly got the 787 fans in a lather of excitement. Maybe time to sober up a bit. We’re losing sight of a few things:

- Over the past year NZ management have talked up the 359/35K as much as they have the 77X. The safest assumption right now is that Luxon/NZ management want to keep both manufacturers uncertain and hungry. We’ve seen nothing to suggest either technical factors or financials have changed recently.
- Reference to a Code 3 789 is new. But that option must have been visible at least from the time QF announced PER-LHR.
- There has been no talk of a 78J for North America. The investor day comments in June pointed out the limited range of the 78J and talked of it as similar to the 767 in terms of effective range.
- It remains to be seen what lay behind Luxon’s comment on Boeing looking for extra range from the 789. In terms of what’s available for an April order the assumption has to be that we’re talking at best about marginal improvements from engines and aero. There has been no hint from other industry sources that Boeing is looking at serious engineering work to bring range closer to the 359.
- The idea that NZ might choose higher premium 789s to replace the 77Es hinges on a major change in their business model for North America. That needs a board level decision on strategy. It would have to be underpinned by a sustained shift in passenger mix on those routes to something more like QF. We’ve heard nothing to substantiate such a shift.
- It would also have implications for cargo - which seems to be a bigger share of the business for NZ than many competitors. Code 3 789s on ULH routes would have to be factored out of NZ’s freight capacity.
- In the event we come up with satisfactory answers on these questions - ie if the Code 3 789 satisfies the 77E replacement need - you’re left with a significant longer-term problem: the 77W replacement. Buying a single type (359/35K or 778/779) as a 77E replacement gives you a viable fleet size - 16+. But if you’re just replacing the 77W your fleet size gets marginal.

A few answers needed here guys...


Sure nothing is a done deal yet, I’ve spoken to people within the airline who I think would no something but don’t or atleast don’t give anything away, unless you are on the team doing this project you might not no anything, I certainly don’t. Just trying to join the dots.

AFAIK the 787 has always been in the running as a 772 replacement, NZ had said they need more lift and range however for ULH, I take that as a configuration thing tbh. As in it’s current configuration the 789 couldn’t do NYC/GRU etc.

Agree re the 78J and the airline said As much as you say, great for Asia. However there has to surely at some point be some improvements maybe a new landing fear or something to increase the MTOW. The 77X is much more capable in many ways but to much for many carriers so the 787 will play an important role I feel.

Freight is an interesting one, I agree it has been a key part of NZ’s business, it could well play a part in swinging the A350 direction.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:17 am

tealnz wrote:
The Luxon interview has certainly got the 787 fans in a lather of excitement. Maybe time to sober up a bit. We’re losing sight of a few things:

- Over the past year NZ management have talked up the 359/35K as much as they have the 77X. The safest assumption right now is that Luxon/NZ management want to keep both manufacturers uncertain and hungry. We’ve seen nothing to suggest either technical factors or financials have changed recently.
- Reference to a Code 3 789 is new. But that option must have been visible at least from the time QF announced PER-LHR.
- There has been no talk of a 78J for North America. The investor day comments in June pointed out the limited range of the 78J and talked of it as similar to the 767 in terms of effective range.
- It remains to be seen what lay behind Luxon’s comment on Boeing looking for extra range from the 789. In terms of what’s available for an April order the assumption has to be that we’re talking at best about marginal improvements from engines and aero. There has been no hint from other industry sources that Boeing is looking at serious engineering work to bring range closer to the 359.
- The idea that NZ might choose higher premium 789s to replace the 77Es hinges on a major change in their business model for North America. That needs a board level decision on strategy. It would have to be underpinned by a sustained shift in passenger mix on those routes to something more like QF. We’ve heard nothing to substantiate such a shift.
- It would also have implications for cargo - which seems to be a bigger share of the business for NZ than many competitors. Code 3 789s on ULH routes would have to be factored out of NZ’s freight capacity.
- In the event we come up with satisfactory answers on these questions - ie if the Code 3 789 satisfies the 77E replacement need - you’re left with a significant longer-term problem: the 77W replacement. Buying a single type (359/35K or 778/779) as a 77E replacement gives you a viable fleet size - 16+. But if you’re just replacing the 77W your fleet size gets marginal.

A few answers needed here guys...


Thanks, I'm a fan of the old reality check. I acknowledge things are all speculation and we need to keep an open mind and try not to convince ourselves of something we don't know.

However, the points you've raised don't really hold weight in rebalancing the recent swing to Boeing for me

- Yes, NZ has talked about the fact their looking at both Boeing and Airbus. I've heard strong rumours the Airbus is the better new aircraft when compared directly to the 77E and 77W but NZ itself has not been exposed to any Airbus rumour, some may argue that the A350 was in WLG but that was more about WLG than NZ in my opinion yet there's starting to be a lot of 787 rumour around the industry. Also, is NZ wanting to compare the A359 and 77X against what they have or against what they need?
- Luxon stated they now believe the can remove another 30 seats aka code 3. How long has that option been on the table? Well for a very long time I can tell you, well before this project as it was looked at when code 2 came around, but when was it dusted off for this? Also, code 3 isn't a 77E or 77W replacement, it's network growth for ULR while the 77E and 77W can be replaced by 789 and 78J.
- While there has been no talk of the 78J and North America, Luxon has talked about extra range of the 787 which is important for NZ to get there as all other NZ routes are doable with the 789 and ULR with Code 3, so this really only fits with the 78J into N.A.
- I think during the lifetime of the 77W and 77E we've seen that 'business model for North America' change already. Prior to that time NZ only operated into LAX and maybe SFO with the 744's. With the 777 and 787 they've opened YVR, IAH, ORD and maybe SFO (I'll need to double check that one) They also talk openly about NYC and more direct routes into the states. My point being, gone are the days of needing 400+ seats with 50J to LAX. NZ may be more than happy with 280-300 seats with 20-40J into more destinations.
- Cargo isn't the cash cow it's believed to be. Well not all of it Some of it is, like the live Bee's which are flown to the USA. Limit that perishable cargo limit and charge a premium for it. NZ may also look to work with the likes of Atlas again and carry cargo to the USA this way. The extra 'dead weight' removed may very well offset the lost cargo volume.

The thing I touched on here which hasn't really been explicitly talked about is the ULR piece. NZ know they need something new or different to reach the likes of NYC.

The 77E and 77W replacements don't have to provide this option directly it just happens to be happening while they're in the market for aircraft. If these current aircraft were replaced one for one they still don't have the spare equipment to operate NYC 3-5 times per week.

Therefore any A359 order wouldn't see necessarily a LOPA to reach NYC, you may still see code 1 and code 2 with that. NZ could go with Airbus to replace 77E and 77W and look to acquire more 789's for NYC when that comes around. Do they still have options?
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:39 am

NZ could keep things really simple and order the A35K to replace both the 77E and 77W (especially since they don’t need to size of the 779 with their diversifying of North America ports). If they wanted to they could always order a few more 789 to bolster that fleet and even code 3 them.
The thing is the 78J can’t replace the 77E/77W for range, while the 789 can’t replace them for payload. If they order the 77X then that’s another type anyway and it’s not like NZ isn’t used to Airbus aircraft.
59 types. 42 countries. 24 airlines.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:31 am

Zkpilot wrote:
NZ could keep things really simple and order the A35K to replace both the 77E and 77W (especially since they don’t need to size of the 779 with their diversifying of North America ports). If they wanted to they could always order a few more 789 to bolster that fleet and even code 3 them.
The thing is the 78J can’t replace the 77E/77W for range, while the 789 can’t replace them for payload. If they order the 77X then that’s another type anyway and it’s not like NZ isn’t used to Airbus aircraft.


They could, however on those really long routes I think 35K at 330 odd seats is a lot of capacity, sure they could get 35K’s and use a code 3 789 on ULH with 250 seats, but it would make sense to use the most capable aircraft in the fleet which would be the 35K would it not?

The thing is the 777 is already in the fleet so much lower costs to add to the fleet despite an overall heavier aircraft compared to the A350, at some point surely the 777/787 will be cross type rated?

While NZ may order the A350 I think some just hope they will order it because Y class is a little more comfortable. NZ won’t think like that, it’s which aircraft gives them the best ROI for their network.
 
zkncj
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Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:57 am

NYKiwi wrote:
AIAL will need to speed up there plans as there will be alot of aircraft in the NZ fleet lol.


Any NZ fleet order will need to come with an order of buses and stairs for AKL.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:44 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NZ could keep things really simple and order the A35K to replace both the 77E and 77W (especially since they don’t need to size of the 779 with their diversifying of North America ports). If they wanted to they could always order a few more 789 to bolster that fleet and even code 3 them.
The thing is the 78J can’t replace the 77E/77W for range, while the 789 can’t replace them for payload. If they order the 77X then that’s another type anyway and it’s not like NZ isn’t used to Airbus aircraft.


They could, however on those really long routes I think 35K at 330 odd seats is a lot of capacity, sure they could get 35K’s and use a code 3 789 on ULH with 250 seats, but it would make sense to use the most capable aircraft in the fleet which would be the 35K would it not?

The thing is the 777 is already in the fleet so much lower costs to add to the fleet despite an overall heavier aircraft compared to the A350, at some point surely the 777/787 will be cross type rated?

While NZ may order the A350 I think some just hope they will order it because Y class is a little more comfortable. NZ won’t think like that, it’s which aircraft gives them the best ROI for their network.

As opposed to the 778 or 779? The A35K is about the sand as they 778 while weighing a whole lot less. They could always rejig the configuration of 789s and another frame or so wouldn’t hurt. Remember of course that on an ULH flight the A35K is able to take a whole lot more payload and NZ does make a considerable amount of revenue from freight (often more profitable than pax).
The adding to the fleet comment is valid however the 77X is different enough to bring its own costs etc (also things like simulators wear out too). It isn’t similar enough to the 789 to make a serious difference and the pilots will still be kept separate. In general I prefer Boeing over Airbus however for a range of reasons I think the A350 is a better aircraft than the 77X unless you absolutely need to larger capacity of the 779 or the slightly further range of the 778.
59 types. 42 countries. 24 airlines.
 
Megatop747-412
Posts: 305
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2000 1:59 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:26 am

SQ will begin A359 operations on SQ297 SIN-CHC tonight, using a long haul configured A359 (J42W24Y187), departing SIN at 1915 hours and arriving into CHC tomorrow at 1005 hours. Note there’s a slight schedule timing change from the SQ297/298 pair operated by the 77E’s.

And at the moment, 9V-SMF is rostered to operate the inaugural flights. SMF is the 10000th Airbus aircraft delivered to an airline customer, and have a special sticker on the rear fuselage to depict its “special status”. So CHC spotters, this would be your chance to head out to CHC tomorrow to capture this historic moment.

As an aside, 9V-SVB operated the final SQ297/298 flight on 5th / 6th Jan, with the final SQ298 flight leaving today.
 
jimmyah
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Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:53 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:49 am

Just drove past NSN and there are 3-4 Virgin Australia ATR’s lined up. Does anyone know what these are doing? I presume matenance but that seems like a large number to have here at once.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1474
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - January 2019

Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:23 am

jimmyah wrote:
Just drove past NSN and there are 3-4 Virgin Australia ATR’s lined up. Does anyone know what these are doing? I presume matenance but that seems like a large number to have here at once.

They’re not needed by VA and are just winding down their leases according to a report I read the other day.
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