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RL757PVD
Posts: 3199
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:52 pm

PVD757 wrote:
heretothere wrote:
heretothere wrote:
When F9 extends their schedule, they exclusively sell discount den fares for a few weeks. If a route doesn’t have discount den fares it won’t show up. Why some routes don’t have any, I don’t know...


Bump...

Better to hold off on the analysis until they’re selling regular fares.


Hoping this is the case since, as of right now, PVD’s F9 service has been slashed to almost nothing.


Its my understanding that pretty much everything they ever tried was 80-85% or better except for the poorly timed AUS flight and the off-season MSY (of which one of the days was a Tuesday)

I think RDU and CLT was even 85% on the 230 seat A321... So if they walk away from that, it creates a nice opening for Moxy
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
jplatts
Posts: 3797
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:36 pm

Buddys747 wrote:
I’m sure they could support it, but I thought the same about DEN-MDT, and yet it’s getting cut. I think a lot will depend on the day of the week and timing. Flights at another close by airport (thinking ORF or IAD) are available non-stop or in ORF with WN quite a few easy one-stops.
It just seems that they are getting all these new planes and just starting and stopping routes on a whim. I guess they are making money but eventually it will come back to haunt them as when they come back around for the third or fourth time there reputation is shot at that point... done rant.


There are a few airports in separate U.S. metro areas that are closer to each other than ORF and RIC that will still have nonstop service to DEN on F9 in Summer 2020, including the following:
ORD and MKE
AUS and SAT
CLT and GSP
MSN and MKE

Here are the driving distances between the above city pairs and ORF-RIC:
ORD-MKE - 73.2 mi
AUS-SAT - 76.9 mi
CLT-GSP - 84.2 mi
MSN-MKE - 83.0 mi
ORF-RIC - 85.5 mi

RIC is far enough from ORF to support nonstop service to DEN on F9 since F9 already serves DEN nonstop from destinations such as GSP and MSN that are closer to other airports served by F9 (by driving distance) than RIC is.

The PDEW of RIC-DEN is also almost as big as the PDEW of ORF-RIC as the PDEW of RIC-DEN in Q2 2019 was 126 passengers/day and the PDEW of ORF-DEN was 150 passengers/day. However, UA carried fewer O&D passengers on ORF-DEN than on RIC-DEN in Q2 2019 as the PDEW of RIC-DEN on UA in Q2 2019 was 79 passengers/day compared to a PDEW of 58 passengers/day on ORF-DEN on UA in Q2 2019.

RIC would also be a new market for F9 as opposed to a reentry into a market previously served by F9.
 
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knope2001
Posts: 3031
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:06 pm

heretothere wrote:
heretothere wrote:
When F9 extends their schedule, they exclusively sell discount den fares for a few weeks. If a route doesn’t have discount den fares it won’t show up. Why some routes don’t have any, I don’t know...


Bump...

Better to hold off on the analysis until they’re selling regular fares.


When they roll out a new schedule period like this the schedules themselves are accurate on flyfrontier.com, it's that they don't release seats for general sale at first so Discount Den members have first crack at limited inventory. When they release the period for broader sale the schedules will be the same.

They do occasionally add stuff back. Maybe a market was on the bubble but didn't make the cut, but then when they firm up what new routes they're going to roll out if there's lift left they may add something back. But based on my experience I'd guess maybe 95% of the time if an existing market isn't there with the new rollout it won't end up operating. There will certainly be a bunch of new markets announced soon and maybe a few things missing now will come back. But mostly what's missing for summer today on flyfrontier.com is gone.
 
WeatherPilot
Posts: 557
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:51 am

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:18 pm

Looks like ORD-SYR is gone next summer.
 
Buddys747
Posts: 314
Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2007 6:33 am

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:42 pm

jplatts wrote:
Buddys747 wrote:
I’m sure they could support it, but I thought the same about DEN-MDT, and yet it’s getting cut. I think a lot will depend on the day of the week and timing. Flights at another close by airport (thinking ORF or IAD) are available non-stop or in ORF with WN quite a few easy one-stops.
It just seems that they are getting all these new planes and just starting and stopping routes on a whim. I guess they are making money but eventually it will come back to haunt them as when they come back around for the third or fourth time there reputation is shot at that point... done rant.



There are a few airports in separate U.S. metro areas that are closer to each other than ORF and RIC that will still have nonstop service to DEN on F9 in Summer 2020, including the following:
ORD and MKE
AUS and SAT
CLT and GSP
MSN and MKE

Here are the driving distances between the above city pairs and ORF-RIC:
ORD-MKE - 73.2 mi
AUS-SAT - 76.9 mi
CLT-GSP - 84.2 mi
MSN-MKE - 83.0 mi
ORF-RIC - 85.5 mi

RIC is far enough from ORF to support nonstop service to DEN on F9 since F9 already serves DEN nonstop from destinations such as GSP and MSN that are closer to other airports served by F9 (by driving distance) than RIC is.

The PDEW of RIC-DEN is also almost as big as the PDEW of ORF-RIC as the PDEW of RIC-DEN in Q2 2019 was 126 passengers/day and the PDEW of ORF-DEN was 150 passengers/day. However, UA carried fewer O&D passengers on ORF-DEN than on RIC-DEN in Q2 2019 as the PDEW of RIC-DEN on UA in Q2 2019 was 79 passengers/day compared to a PDEW of 58 passengers/day on ORF-DEN on UA in Q2 2019.

RIC would also be a new market for F9 as opposed to a reentry into a market previously served by F9.

Thanks for the informative post. I don’t doubt RIC could support the service, I was just saying if it is a lousy schedule and timing, there’s a chance RIC customers would stick with WN 1 Stops or United. While there are people that will take the lowest fare no matter what, when traveling as a family timing does make a difference.
RIC is probably more well positioned than MDT is, with BWI having so many options on WN, UA, NK and just this past summer F9 was doing 4x weekly.
I would have thought there would be a better chance to steal customers here in MDT on F9 rather then going head to head with multiple daily non stops on other airlines at BWI. There is a ton of bleed from here.
Even MDT-MCO going to just 2 weekly and nothing else just doesn’t make sense to me. As MCO tends to be the preferred Orlando airport, how does G4 make MDT-SFB work daily most of the year?
It’s one thing to be a cheerleader for your home airport with any service you get, there are some I scratch my head about that aren’t worth starting, but I still firmly believe with proper timing and frequency a route like MDT-DEN should be able to sustain itself.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1306
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:34 pm

Frontier14 wrote:
flybry wrote:
When will EWR-DEN start?


Am hearing there may be an announcement(s) come next week that will answer your question.

Frontier 14


Any chance of it today?
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1508
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:24 pm

Yeah, now that they are at XNA, I wonder if we see something like what they teies at BKG with ORD and DFW at XNA instead plus adding MCO

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=Ord-dFW%0D ... =wls&DU=mi
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5435
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Thu Dec 19, 2019 1:06 am

Big growth coming in 2020

"The Denver-based ultra-low-cost carrier will grow capacity by an impressive 23-25% year-over-year in 2020 as it takes delivery of around 15 new A320neo family jets"
https://thepointsguy.com/news/frontier- ... ive-years/
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
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SQ22
Moderator
Posts: 1922
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:29 am

Re: Frontier Airlines Network Thread - 2019

Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:05 pm

Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438071

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