Thought I would merge the conversations from the BNA forum and SAT forum into one...

SY will begin BNA-LAX, BNA-PDX and BNA-PVD.

They will also start SAT-MSP, SAT-PDX, SAT-LAX

Also announcing routes from PHL, IAD, SMF, EWR, and ORD.

All routes start this summer. I wonder if they will allow connections to HNL from BNA and SAT.

I expect Southwest to respond to this in the Nashville market.

They are also announcing IAD today.

rainaviation wrote:

They are also announcing IAD today.

Would be a re-announcement. They served a couple years ago.

Don't jump the gun dude, you left out a ton of new airports EWR, PVD, PHL, and IAD

stlgph wrote:

rainaviation wrote:

They are also announcing IAD today.

Good. Better start another 19 threads.

Yeah, sorry a bit premature on my part. Lets wait and see because they have also loaded EWR.

Midwestindy wrote:

Don't jump the gun dude, you left out a ton of new airports EWR, PVD, PHL, and IAD

My apologies! Should have waited! I will wait longer next time. SMF is there too.

rainaviation wrote:

Thought I would merge the conversations from the BNA forum and SAT forum into one...

SY will begin BNA-LAX, BNA-PDX and BNA-PVD.

They will also start SAT-MSP, SAT-PDX, SAT-LAX

Also announcing routes from PHL, IAD, SMF, EWR, and ORD.

All routes start this summer. I wonder if they will allow connections to HNL from BNA and SAT.

If there’s going to be a single thread, could we see the full list of routes or a link? Saying they are adding flights “from EWR” is not useful information.

A Sun Country question... We are flying them for the first time next month from BNA-MIA and looking at Seat Guru, Row 1 A-C does not have a bulkhead in front of the seats. Are you really staring at the door and FA Seat..? Looks like you guys jumped the gun.. BNA was going to announce at 0900CST

This is a lot of new domestic destinations, and I can see a few obvious winners (IMO, naturally). IAD and ORD look like things that can stick around beyond summer.
I am already wondering if SY will shift that capacity for next winter to rebuilding the frequency or destination for the beach routes that they scaled back.

EMBQA wrote:

A Sun Country question... We are flying them for the first time next month from BNA-MIA and looking at Seat Guru, Row 1 A-C does not have a bulkhead in front of the seats. Are you really staring at the door and FA Seat..? Looks like you guys jumped the gun.. BNA was going to announce at 0900CST

there's a bulkhead there.

EMBQA wrote:

A Sun Country question... We are flying them for the first time next month from BNA-MIA and looking at Seat Guru, Row 1 A-C does not have a bulkhead in front of the seats. Are you really staring at the door and FA Seat..? Looks like you guys jumped the gun.. BNA was going to announce at 0900CST

That map is outdated. They are all the economy now.

I'm seeing STL-PDX starts June 10th and STL-MSP starts June 9th.

So for everything I'm seeing is 4x/week, thought I certainly haven't looked up every route yet. Until there's an actual news item I don't think anybody knows the full scope of the new flying -- people are simply reporting what they are finding very much like the periodic Southwest threads.

FWIW Madison ends 4/6 -- not sure if that is a permanent end, a certain seasonal resumption next winter or a "we'll see" seasonal drop.

I'm remaining cautiously optimistic, but let's wait for the official press release from SY. It'll probably be a few hours, it's still early.

southwest1675 wrote:

I expect Southwest to respond to this in the Nashville market.

Why? There's no evidence that WN cares about SY - in BNA or elsewhere - a bit. Certainly they have pretty much ignored SY's entrance into BNA-MSP.

knope2001 wrote:

So for everything I'm seeing is 4x/week, thought I certainly haven't looked up every route yet. Until there's an actual news item I don't think anybody knows the full scope of the new flying -- people are simply reporting what they are finding very much like the periodic Southwest threads.

FWIW Madison ends 4/6 -- not sure if that is a permanent end, a certain seasonal resumption next winter or a "we'll see" seasonal drop.

IAD ramps up to 6x and ORD to 7x . I expect both to be strong.

Cubsrule wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

I expect Southwest to respond to this in the Nashville market.

Why? There's no evidence that WN cares about SY - in BNA or elsewhere - a bit. Certainly they have pretty much ignored SY's entrance into BNA-MSP.

And WN is up to 2x daily this summer.

SY tried a flight to MDW out of MSP before and it failed miserably. How will ORD work better this time?

Wonder if we will see SY BOS-MSP (DL + B6 bloodbath) switch down to PVD (unserved)

Duplicate post - delete

SteveXC500 wrote:

SY tried a flight to MDW out of MSP before and it failed miserably. How will ORD work better this time?

I think fares are more sustainable today than in the past.

On another web site there is a write up on SY.. https://skift.com/2019/01/08/sun-countr ... l-airline/

They made $30 million last year. Plus they are looking to add 6 737-800 per year. Tide Pod fleet is growing

Sun Country is changing to a proven model. Customer show they book with their wallets. The legacies don't help as the new seats on UA, AA, and DL are no better and they charge for baggage and seat assignments also.

I'm seeing 4x weekly PVD-MSP in addition to 4x weekly PVD-BNA, both have well timed connections to LAS and LAX

Looking at that map, I can't fail to notice that there is a lot of empty space in the south-east. What destinations and from which hubs are the most likely to be added in the future?

They're making another attempt at the Chicago/DC markets!!? Well...maybe the 3rd time is a charm.

Blerg wrote:

Looking at that map, I can't fail to notice that there is a lot of empty space in the south-east. What destinations and from which hubs are the most likely to be added in the future?

This map only shows the new routes not the ones currently flying

SteveXC500 wrote:

SY tried a flight to MDW out of MSP before and it failed miserably. How will ORD work better this time?

F9 and NK both tried MSP-ORD nonstop service, and both of these carriers did drop MSP-ORD nonstop service. F9 has also dropped other routes out of ORD that were in competition with WN nonstop routes out of MDW, NK nonstop routes out of ORD, and AS nonstop routes out of ORD.

F9 is been able to make MSP-CVG and MSP-CLE nonstop service work on a seasonal, less-than-daily basis, and NK is able to make MSP-DTW nonstop service work. However, there is significantly less nonstop competition on MSP-CVG, MSP-CLE, and MSP-DTW than on MSP-CHI as DL is the only other carrier serving CVG, CLE, and DTW nonstop from MSP. CVG, CLE, and DTW are also further from MSP than DTW is. F9 also has much stronger brand recognition in Ohio and Northern Kentucky than SY does, and NK also has much stronger brand recognition in the DTW market than SY does.

I am unsure if SY will be successful on MSP-ORD, especially with both F9 and NK dropping MSP-ORD nonstop service.

Hopefully they will continue to be aggressive and add MKE,IND and CVG

They are going to be needing more aircraft to do this. I wonder if they will keep their contract with HV. I know that SY is gearing towards purchasing aircraft.

jplatts wrote:

SteveXC500 wrote:

SY tried a flight to MDW out of MSP before and it failed miserably. How will ORD work better this time?

F9 and NK both tried MSP-ORD nonstop service, and both of these carriers did drop MSP-ORD nonstop service. F9 has also dropped other routes out of ORD that were in competition with WN nonstop routes out of MDW, NK nonstop routes out of ORD, and AS nonstop routes out of ORD.

F9 is been able to make MSP-CVG and MSP-CLE nonstop service work on a seasonal, less-than-daily basis, and NK is able to make MSP-DTW nonstop service work. However, there is significantly less nonstop competition on MSP-CVG, MSP-CLE, and MSP-DTW than on MSP-CHI as DL is the only other carrier serving CVG, CLE, and DTW nonstop from MSP. CVG, CLE, and DTW are also further from MSP than DTW is. F9 also has much stronger brand recognition in Ohio and Northern Kentucky than SY does, and NK also has much stronger brand recognition in the DTW market than SY does.

I am unsure if SY will be successful on MSP-ORD, especially with both F9 and NK dropping MSP-ORD nonstop service.

Yea but i guess SY feels Chicago is to big of a Market to Ignore, and MSP-ORD is large but well covered. Maybe 2 to 3 daily flights SY can undercut and target price conscious passengers and now that NK dropped ORD-MSP there could be room for SY. With a flyer base at MSP im sure just on O&D SY could fill a couple planes a day.

Blerg wrote:

Looking at that map, I can't fail to notice that there is a lot of empty space in the south-east. What destinations and from which hubs are the most likely to be added in the future?

.
http://sy.fltmaps.com/en

shadez wrote:

STL-PDX and PVD-BNA seem the most risky. WN is very strong in PVD and BNA. I don't see SY getting enough traction and I'd think WN is likely to go for the block. Of course, WN doesn't move super-fast which helps. STL-PDX I think is probably pretty hard to make work without any feed and with WN in the market. I think I'll file that as one of those AS-type markets that SY tends to be drawn to. I'll assume it is Summer only, which obviously makes a lot more sense. If they flew that in Winter against WN it would be very poor.

So, LAS-SJD/PVR. I'm on the fence about those. I've thought about those before. I think the question is what is the make-up of the traffic. If it's is nearly all Americans then I think they will be fine. I suspect it isn't. Even though PVR and SJD are resorts, Mexicans love LAS which makes me think the traffic is still heavily weighted toward Mexican-residing passengers. At some point I saw some data on whoever flew CUN-LAS at the time. It was a U.S. carrier. I wondered what the mix would be. It was like 80% Mexicans to my surprise. I think LAS residents tend to vacation in Hawaii and Colorado, not so much Mexico. SY will struggle to sell anything on the South point-of-sale. So, I think those are risky, but it really is a gamble on that traffic mix. If it succeeds WN will add those routes which is another downer. I know for a fact they were not in them because of the same point-of-sale concern. The rest of the routes seem like pretty low-risk choices.

Getting a little big for their britches? I can't see how they support this expansion without low frequency. And offering a flight two or three days a week isn't a big threat to anyone else so they may just be ignored by the majors. It's a big gamble for them...are they trying to poke some bears to then be acquired?

Some light reading.

https://skift.com/2019/01/08/sun-countr ... 3MFcSxYDHg

enilria wrote:

shadez wrote:

WN is very strong in PVD and BNA. I don't see SY getting enough traction and I'd think WN is likely to go for the block. .

When you take away Florida, WN has been pretty weak at PVD as they attempt to push the westbound demand to BOS to prop up their underperforming routes there. WN even lets F9 come into PVD-DEN uncontested. BNA may be a tough market becuase of the 3-way fight at BOS, whereas PVD-LAS on SY might be a better bet since WN wont touch it and G4 isn't there yet crew wise.

Cubsrule wrote:

southwest1675 wrote:

I expect Southwest to respond to this in the Nashville market.

Why? There's no evidence that WN cares about SY - in BNA or elsewhere - a bit. Certainly they have pretty much ignored SY's entrance into BNA-MSP.

WN has already announced plans to increase BNA-MSP to 2 daily nonstops starting in June 2019, but WN is also going to be discontinuing ATL-MSP nonstop service in June 2019. WN is certainly not ignoring the BNA market since WN is also increasing nonstop service to BOS, DAL, DTW, LAS, SAN, and STL from BNA.

TheKennady2 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

SteveXC500 wrote:

SY tried a flight to MDW out of MSP before and it failed miserably. How will ORD work better this time?

F9 and NK both tried MSP-ORD nonstop service, and both of these carriers did drop MSP-ORD nonstop service. F9 has also dropped other routes out of ORD that were in competition with WN nonstop routes out of MDW, NK nonstop routes out of ORD, and AS nonstop routes out of ORD.

F9 is been able to make MSP-CVG and MSP-CLE nonstop service work on a seasonal, less-than-daily basis, and NK is able to make MSP-DTW nonstop service work. However, there is significantly less nonstop competition on MSP-CVG, MSP-CLE, and MSP-DTW than on MSP-CHI as DL is the only other carrier serving CVG, CLE, and DTW nonstop from MSP. CVG, CLE, and DTW are also further from MSP than DTW is. F9 also has much stronger brand recognition in Ohio and Northern Kentucky than SY does, and NK also has much stronger brand recognition in the DTW market than SY does.

I am unsure if SY will be successful on MSP-ORD, especially with both F9 and NK dropping MSP-ORD nonstop service.

Yea but i guess SY feels Chicago is to big of a Market to Ignore, and MSP-ORD is large but well covered. Maybe 2 to 3 daily flights SY can undercut and target price conscious passengers and now that NK dropped ORD-MSP there could be room for SY. With a flyer base at MSP im sure just on O&D SY could fill a couple planes a day.

Except they are only flying ONE flight daily to ORD from MSP.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

Sun Country is changing to a proven model. Customer show they book with their wallets. The legacies don't help as the new seats on UA, AA, and DL are no better and they charge for baggage and seat assignments also.

AA/DL/UA have frequency, network, and fleet size going for them. SY has none of that. It can offer cheap. Can it be sustainably cheaper than NK, F9 and Allegiant? I doubt it.

They can offer more than cheap.

Show up on time, smile, don't lose bags and make an effort to get people from Point A to Point B on time and they'll be fine.

From the article:

'Private equity firms generally don’t retain assets for long, and Bricker said he knows Apollo has an exit strategy. It may include an initial public offering, or a sale.

“They’re not going to be here in 10 years,” Bricker said. “Five years is kind of up in the air.”'

I wonder who they might sell it to. I hope not another airline as it would spell the end of Sun Country as we know it today.

SteveXC500 wrote:

TheKennady2 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

F9 and NK both tried MSP-ORD nonstop service, and both of these carriers did drop MSP-ORD nonstop service. F9 has also dropped other routes out of ORD that were in competition with WN nonstop routes out of MDW, NK nonstop routes out of ORD, and AS nonstop routes out of ORD.

F9 is been able to make MSP-CVG and MSP-CLE nonstop service work on a seasonal, less-than-daily basis, and NK is able to make MSP-DTW nonstop service work. However, there is significantly less nonstop competition on MSP-CVG, MSP-CLE, and MSP-DTW than on MSP-CHI as DL is the only other carrier serving CVG, CLE, and DTW nonstop from MSP. CVG, CLE, and DTW are also further from MSP than DTW is. F9 also has much stronger brand recognition in Ohio and Northern Kentucky than SY does, and NK also has much stronger brand recognition in the DTW market than SY does.

I am unsure if SY will be successful on MSP-ORD, especially with both F9 and NK dropping MSP-ORD nonstop service.

Yea but i guess SY feels Chicago is to big of a Market to Ignore, and MSP-ORD is large but well covered. Maybe 2 to 3 daily flights SY can undercut and target price conscious passengers and now that NK dropped ORD-MSP there could be room for SY. With a flyer base at MSP im sure just on O&D SY could fill a couple planes a day.

Except they are only flying ONE flight daily to ORD from MSP.

NK did something like this for a while. The issue at the time was that AA agressively price matched and sent ORD yields down the drain. Great for customers as $100 R/T fares were somewhat common but it clearly wasn't sustainable. Now that NK left, yields have greatly increased. $100 fares are no longer a thing on MSP-ORD/MDW so there is room for an LCC. I guess it depends on whether the others try and match SY. But the current yields clearly warrant an LCC.

Ben, Ben, Ben....what the hell are you doing? Good luck my friend, you're going to need it...

hiflyeras wrote:

Getting a little big for their britches? I can't see how they support this expansion without low frequency. And offering a flight two or three days a week isn't a big threat to anyone else so they may just be ignored by the majors. It's a big gamble for them...are they trying to poke some bears to then be acquired?

Their whole business has been predicated on being ignored by Delta. DL could have easily tanked yields on winter leisure routes from MSP and wiped out SY. So this is just a continuation of that. As long as they are just siphoning off lower yielding traffic, DL will continue to ignore them.

Blerg wrote:

From the article:

'Private equity firms generally don’t retain assets for long, and Bricker said he knows Apollo has an exit strategy. It may include an initial public offering, or a sale.

“They’re not going to be here in 10 years,” Bricker said. “Five years is kind of up in the air.”'

I wonder who they might sell it to. I hope not another airline as it would spell the end of Sun Country as we know it today.

Well, this is just like F9. You don't make sale money without an IPO. Sure, they can sell to another airline, but they won't get "real" money that way.

a) Their best option is to show growth and earnings and build a story it can continue which will cause Wall Street to value/overvalue them and then IPO and make a butt-ton of money. After that they will become merger fodder at the high price Wall Street says they are worth. They might be worth $250-300+ million this way. Maybe more if they have a couple of years of arrows going the right way. Even though I hate mergers, I can imagine a situation where SY patches the network hole in an AS-B6 merger, making it ultimately a 3-way merger. I think AS-B6 would have to merge first, but at this point I'll be surprised if we get through 2019 without that being announced.

b) If they sell to another airline without IPO-ing they will be valued based upon two things: assets (they have almost none) and how much it's worth to kill them (only really valuable to Delta who would hopefully be blocked by DOJ from bidding). They would be lucky to get $25-50 million this way. So this won't happen unless they start to lose money and a) becomes impossible.

I'm puzzled why SY is going to attempt seasonal flights on the heavily flown route between MSP-ORD. In 2013, SY flew seasonal flights between MSP-MDW for two years before being chased off that route by both NK and WN. NK was selling one way tickets for $35 at the time and both NK and WN had much greater flight frequency on that route. While SY has grown its fleet, only slightly, do they really think that DL and others are going to sit pat and not respond?

LAS-ANC is interesting to me. I could see that being a good route for a ULCC. Very interested to see how that goes.

Minneapolis/St. Paul...

Chicago O’Hare: Begins April 19 with four weekly flights. Goes to daily service on May 27.

Newark Liberty: Begins April 11 with four weekly flights. Goes to daily service on April 29.

Philadelphia: Begins April 18 with four weekly flights. Goes to daily service on June 3.

Providence, Rhode Island: Begins April 8 with four weekly flights.

Sacramento, California: Begins May 23 with four weekly flights.

St. Louis: Begins June 13 with four weekly flights.

San Antonio: Begins May 23 with four weekly flights. Goes to daily service on April 29.

Washington Dulles: Begins April 25 with four weekly flights. Goes to daily service on June 10.

Nashville...

Los Angeles: Begins April 8 with four weekly flights.

Portland, Oregon: Begins May 2 with two weekly flights. Goes to four weekly flights on June 6.

Providence, Rhode Island: Begins April 8 with four weekly flights.

Dallas/Fort Worth...

Montego Bay, Jamaica: Begins May 24 with two weekly flights.

St. Kitts and Nevis: Saturday-only service begins May 25.

Previously announced nonstop service to Phoenix and Palm Springs, California, begins Feb. 6.

Las Vegas...

Anchorage, Alaska: Begins May 18 with two weekly flights. Goes to four weekly flights on June 5.

Cabo San Lucas/Los Cabos, Mexico: Begins June 6 with two weekly flights.

Puerto Vallarta, Mexico: Begins June 7 with two weekly flights.

Portland, Oregon...

Nashville: Begins May 2 with two weekly flights. Goes to four weekly flights on June 7.

St. Louis: Begins June 7 with two weekly flights.

San Antonio: Begins June 5 with four weekly flights.

San Francisco...

Honolulu: Begins May 18 with three weekly flights. Goes to four weekly flights on June 6.