ScottB
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:35 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
If a new technology would allow to fly transatlantic for say 100 bucks return, the demand will be so huge that it can only be met by larger aircraft. Smaller aircraft like the B787 would become irrelevant and unnecessarily take up space in the air and on the ground.


That's simply not true; most people will still have obligations in their lives (jobs, families, pets, etc.) which will limit their ability to travel more than a few times a year, and they'll still face the expenses of accommodations, food, and tourist attractions while away from home. Not everyone wants to deal with a change of six time zones in both directions every month, and while there are advantages of touring Europe and North America in winter, many don't enjoy being cold when on vacation.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
15 years ago evedybody was weilding around Nokia 3310's like that was the thing to have, today you can park your car with your smartphone and Nokia has become irrelevant because it didn't follow the smartphone drift.


And 40 years ago the amount of computer processing power which now fits in your pocket required dedicated rooms of space. But we're not seeing the same level of advances in aerodynamics and propulsion systems that we've seen in the semiconductor industry and certainly haven't seen that pace in decades, if ever. Moreover, it's likely that we are approaching the limits of what our current semiconductor technologies can achieve in terms of miniaturization; going an additional order of magnitude smaller in chip feature sizes will probably result in strange behaviors due to quantum effects.

Also, keep in mind that part of the rapid advancement in mobile computing is enabled by the fact that our lives usually don't rely on our devices functioning properly at virtually all times. The same is not true of aircraft & jet engines; nor is it true of medical devices (which is why they advance more slowly, too).

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The A380 offers a unique platform to try out any kind of new technology. Somebody above said that it would still have 4 jet engines and be inefficient.
Who says that the next breakthrough will be a jet engine or any form of combustion engine at all?


But a smaller platform is very likely to be a better choice for trying out a new technology -- a smaller, less complex model makes for a far better and less costly test bed. Moreover, in your hypothetical case where the cost of fuel were to become nearly negligible, most of the other operational costs would remain -- i.e. crew costs, real estate rental, maintenance materials, financing costs, taxation, etc. Free fuel would likely only reduce airline operating costs by 20-25% -- in 2018, fuel only made up 23% of DL's operating expenses as an example.

anfromme wrote:
Just for perspective: World air traffic was at ~4 trillion RPK in 2000, when the A380 was launched. It's now at just shy of 9 trillion, with historically low air fares. And still the A380 isn't selling.
You might even say because of this, the A380 is not selling, as most growth was seen in the A320/737 segment, driven by the likes of Indigo, Spicejet, Lion Air, Ryanair, Easyjet, JetBlue, etc.


One key factor is that the vast majority of trips taken by air are in relatively short-haul markets where models like the A320 and 737 are good choices due to moderate unit costs and the ability to offer the frequency preferred by the market. The A321neo, 737MAX-10, and future mid-market aircraft slotted above these models in capacity are likely best poised to capture growth in the segment of distances under 3000 nm or so.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:41 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Just because a fuselage stretch can be taken doesn't mean that the wing is overweight and overbuilt.
The A389 wing would have needed strengthening to increase the MTOW towards 600 tons, this is common knowledge.


Indeed - I have had to counter this idea that the A380-800 is flying on a much heavier A380-900 wing several times over the years. They are not the same wing, even if they look the same.


This is written as if you don't understand the difference between size, weight, and length.

Airliner performance is a matter of weight, SFC, and L/D.
The A380 has - controlling for EIS - average levels of each variable.
Absent some compelling edge on one of the three parameters, there is no reason to use such a large plane.
A380 had an opportunity for compelling L/D and weight edged but relinquished them in counterproductive pursuit of scale.
If you can't understand these fundamentals you can't say a useful word about the A380 or airliners in general.

Luckily for Airbus there are more somebodies in Toulouse who've demonstrated an ability to create strategically smart products. Those who haven't learned the lessons of Airbus past won't be long or high in Toulouse.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:01 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
neutronstar73 wrote:
VV wrote:
Some bloggers have always had a consistent opinion on the market for big quads. The have all been bashed by all sorts of people.
They could potentially say, "I told you so.", But they don't say it.


I think you've earned the right to say it. Especially as several VERY ARROGANT AND SMUG A380/Airbus boosters bashed the doubters relentlessly.

And now some of those very same boosters are making up all kinds of excuses and throwing nonsense or selling bad/senseless arguments out there., like how Boeing was "just as bad" by mildly updating the 747. I mean, yeah, the A380 is an impressive aircraft, but just because people had doubts about its viability doesn't detract from the aircraft's unique position in the marketplace.

But any derogatory comment about it is treated as sacrilege. Go figure.


Subjectively, I would say it's been about 2:1 for the (much louder) A380 bashers than the A380 boosters - for all 20 years since the A3XX inception. The idea now relentlessly put forward by VV that the anti-A380 crowd were somehow shouted down is an utter joke.


Even if you're right, 2:1 right:wrong ratio doesn't speak well for the species.
Especially considering how much time some of the wrong put into boosting the A380 fiasco.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:04 am

Matt6461 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Just because a fuselage stretch can be taken doesn't mean that the wing is overweight and overbuilt.
The A389 wing would have needed strengthening to increase the MTOW towards 600 tons, this is common knowledge.


Indeed - I have had to counter this idea that the A380-800 is flying on a much heavier A380-900 wing several times over the years. They are not the same wing, even if they look the same.


This is written as if you don't understand the difference between size, weight, and length.

Airliner performance is a matter of weight, SFC, and L/D.
The A380 has - controlling for EIS - average levels of each variable.
Absent some compelling edge on one of the three parameters, there is no reason to use such a large plane.
A380 had an opportunity for compelling L/D and weight edged but relinquished them in counterproductive pursuit of scale.
If you can't understand these fundamentals you can't say a useful word about the A380 or airliners in general.

Luckily for Airbus there are more somebodies in Toulouse who've demonstrated an ability to create strategically smart products. Those who haven't learned the lessons of Airbus past won't be long or high in Toulouse.


Put the max amount of pax on an A380 in as dense a configuration as a B77W or even a B777-9.
I guarantee you that the A380 will beat it in CASM.

In much the same way, the Cseries didn't get many orders for its CS100 and CS300 despite having very good performance.

I can also mention you acronyms and formula's. TSFC, L/T, IDG, and pretend that I know what I'm talking about.
Then I can say that the B787 has average values of them.
I can say that the B789 is overweight and overbuilt because it was designed with a stretch in mind, the B787-10. I could say the same about the B779 or the A359.

None of that matters because it's not performance that is killing the A380.
It's the market and Airbus' inability to get the model into the market, and then Airbus' executives inability to see beyond the next airshow and their next commissions/bonus check.

A simple change of management shouldn't be used as an excuse to pull the plug on such an iconic project. You don't "clean up" a 15 billion project just because the management was unable to monetize it in the short term and the next management is worried about it.
Fire the board, fire the next board for all I care, but keep the A380 in place, even if you need to suspend it due to lack of orders.

If performance was all it was about, then why is Boeing looking at increasing production for the B767?
Boeing wants to speed up production
CargoForwarder Global posed the question in November of last year as to whether the B767 freighter has a long-term future. We were convinced then that this is the case and even more so today.
Boeing has seen the future for this aircraft already back in 1993 when UPS placed an order with them for 60 new production aircraft. Things developed rather slowly after that, but now the market interest for this model has convinced the Seattle-based manufacturer to look at increasing the production line. Today’s demand stems mainly from the booming e-commerce market as well as the continued expansion by the established integrators.
Whereas production of the large B747 freighter has slowed - the B767F and its largest sister, the B777F have been on many carrier’s order books during the past couple of years. The B777F can carry almost twice as much as the B767F - but both have their own specific market niches. Conversions of outgoing passenger 767s continue, but the demand for Boeing to manufacture more of the pure 767 freighters has grown. The company presently has a backlog of around 100 aircraft of this type on their books (including military tankers) and their studies show that in order to meet future demand, they should increase production to three aircraft per month from the present 2.5 per month.


https://www.cargoforwarder.eu/2018/05/0 ... roduction/
 
AJRfromSYR
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:58 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Put the max amount of pax on an A380 in as dense a configuration as a B77W or even a B777-9.
I guarantee you that the A380 will beat it


If airlines could fill the plane with that many seats every day of the year than the a380 wouldn't be getting the axe.

Also regarding the 767 a freighter doing 1 mission a day doesn't need to as efficient as a passenger plane. Which is why FedEx has such an old fleet.
-AJR-
 
DarkKnight5
Posts: 188
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:36 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:23 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:

Indeed - I have had to counter this idea that the A380-800 is flying on a much heavier A380-900 wing several times over the years. They are not the same wing, even if they look the same.


This is written as if you don't understand the difference between size, weight, and length.

Airliner performance is a matter of weight, SFC, and L/D.
The A380 has - controlling for EIS - average levels of each variable.
Absent some compelling edge on one of the three parameters, there is no reason to use such a large plane.
A380 had an opportunity for compelling L/D and weight edged but relinquished them in counterproductive pursuit of scale.
If you can't understand these fundamentals you can't say a useful word about the A380 or airliners in general.

Luckily for Airbus there are more somebodies in Toulouse who've demonstrated an ability to create strategically smart products. Those who haven't learned the lessons of Airbus past won't be long or high in Toulouse.


Put the max amount of pax on an A380 in as dense a configuration as a B77W or even a B777-9.
I guarantee you that the A380 will beat it in CASM.

In much the same way, the Cseries didn't get many orders for its CS100 and CS300 despite having very good performance.

I can also mention you acronyms and formula's. TSFC, L/T, IDG, and pretend that I know what I'm talking about.
Then I can say that the B787 has average values of them.
I can say that the B789 is overweight and overbuilt because it was designed with a stretch in mind, the B787-10. I could say the same about the B779 or the A359.

None of that matters because it's not performance that is killing the A380.
It's the market and Airbus' inability to get the model into the market, and then Airbus' executives inability to see beyond the next airshow and their next commissions/bonus check.

A simple change of management shouldn't be used as an excuse to pull the plug on such an iconic project. You don't "clean up" a 15 billion project just because the management was unable to monetize it in the short term and the next management is worried about it.
Fire the board, fire the next board for all I care, but keep the A380 in place, even if you need to suspend it due to lack of orders.

If performance was all it was about, then why is Boeing looking at increasing production for the B767?
Boeing wants to speed up production
CargoForwarder Global posed the question in November of last year as to whether the B767 freighter has a long-term future. We were convinced then that this is the case and even more so today.
Boeing has seen the future for this aircraft already back in 1993 when UPS placed an order with them for 60 new production aircraft. Things developed rather slowly after that, but now the market interest for this model has convinced the Seattle-based manufacturer to look at increasing the production line. Today’s demand stems mainly from the booming e-commerce market as well as the continued expansion by the established integrators.
Whereas production of the large B747 freighter has slowed - the B767F and its largest sister, the B777F have been on many carrier’s order books during the past couple of years. The B777F can carry almost twice as much as the B767F - but both have their own specific market niches. Conversions of outgoing passenger 767s continue, but the demand for Boeing to manufacture more of the pure 767 freighters has grown. The company presently has a backlog of around 100 aircraft of this type on their books (including military tankers) and their studies show that in order to meet future demand, they should increase production to three aircraft per month from the present 2.5 per month.


https://www.cargoforwarder.eu/2018/05/0 ... roduction/

Nobody wants it short term (12 to 24 months). Nobody wants it long term (beyond). It is impossible to “suspend” a program reliant on hundreds of sub contractors and a mind-boggling supply chain.

The reason the 767 is still in demand is that it is efficient enough against its peers that it is worth the spend. The A380 clearly won’t be competitive enough against its near peers to warrant buying it. Also, the “767 has bad economics too and people still order it” a hell of a pivot away from your original argument of A380 being a technological marvel.

Nobody wants to operate the A380 in high density because the majority of the money paid in a flight is paid by the low-density (premium) customers. Nobody can profitably fill a high-density A380 with low fare passengers. There is not demand, and nobody predicts there will be such demand. The market has spoken. Let it go.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 374
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:53 am

DarkKnight5 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Matt6461 wrote:

This is written as if you don't understand the difference between size, weight, and length.

Airliner performance is a matter of weight, SFC, and L/D.
The A380 has - controlling for EIS - average levels of each variable.
Absent some compelling edge on one of the three parameters, there is no reason to use such a large plane.
A380 had an opportunity for compelling L/D and weight edged but relinquished them in counterproductive pursuit of scale.
If you can't understand these fundamentals you can't say a useful word about the A380 or airliners in general.

Luckily for Airbus there are more somebodies in Toulouse who've demonstrated an ability to create strategically smart products. Those who haven't learned the lessons of Airbus past won't be long or high in Toulouse.


Put the max amount of pax on an A380 in as dense a configuration as a B77W or even a B777-9.
I guarantee you that the A380 will beat it in CASM.

In much the same way, the Cseries didn't get many orders for its CS100 and CS300 despite having very good performance.

I can also mention you acronyms and formula's. TSFC, L/T, IDG, and pretend that I know what I'm talking about.
Then I can say that the B787 has average values of them.
I can say that the B789 is overweight and overbuilt because it was designed with a stretch in mind, the B787-10. I could say the same about the B779 or the A359.

None of that matters because it's not performance that is killing the A380.
It's the market and Airbus' inability to get the model into the market, and then Airbus' executives inability to see beyond the next airshow and their next commissions/bonus check.

A simple change of management shouldn't be used as an excuse to pull the plug on such an iconic project. You don't "clean up" a 15 billion project just because the management was unable to monetize it in the short term and the next management is worried about it.
Fire the board, fire the next board for all I care, but keep the A380 in place, even if you need to suspend it due to lack of orders.

If performance was all it was about, then why is Boeing looking at increasing production for the B767?
Boeing wants to speed up production
CargoForwarder Global posed the question in November of last year as to whether the B767 freighter has a long-term future. We were convinced then that this is the case and even more so today.
Boeing has seen the future for this aircraft already back in 1993 when UPS placed an order with them for 60 new production aircraft. Things developed rather slowly after that, but now the market interest for this model has convinced the Seattle-based manufacturer to look at increasing the production line. Today’s demand stems mainly from the booming e-commerce market as well as the continued expansion by the established integrators.
Whereas production of the large B747 freighter has slowed - the B767F and its largest sister, the B777F have been on many carrier’s order books during the past couple of years. The B777F can carry almost twice as much as the B767F - but both have their own specific market niches. Conversions of outgoing passenger 767s continue, but the demand for Boeing to manufacture more of the pure 767 freighters has grown. The company presently has a backlog of around 100 aircraft of this type on their books (including military tankers) and their studies show that in order to meet future demand, they should increase production to three aircraft per month from the present 2.5 per month.


https://www.cargoforwarder.eu/2018/05/0 ... roduction/

Nobody wants it short term (12 to 24 months). Nobody wants it long term (beyond). It is impossible to “suspend” a program reliant on hundreds of sub contractors and a mind-boggling supply chain.

The reason the 767 is still in demand is that it is efficient enough against its peers that it is worth the spend. The A380 clearly won’t be competitive enough against its near peers to warrant buying it. Also, the “767 has bad economics too and people still order it” a hell of a pivot away from your original argument of A380 being a technological marvel.

Nobody wants to operate the A380 in high density because the majority of the money paid in a flight is paid by the low-density (premium) customers. Nobody can profitably fill a high-density A380 with low fare passengers. There is not demand, and nobody predicts there will be such demand. The market has spoken. Let it go.


Again, nobody wants it today.
Tomorrow things can change.
The rest is all blabla.

For instance, SQ has barely more Y seats on their A380 vs. B77W because "the money is in the forward cabins". If the money is in the forward cabins, then why doesn't SQ order B77W's without economy class and the same amount of premium seats as their A380's? That should be a rainmaker, no? Why bother hauling around a Y cabin in their A380's in the first place?

Some operators have more seats on their B77W than SQ have on their A380's.
Sure, an AF B77W with 381 or 468 seats will beat the CASM of a 379 seat SQ A380. That is a certainty. So we should conclude from that the A380's aren't competitive. :banghead:

Bankroll me 100 A380's the way STC got his and I'll bankrupt every airline flying transsiberian and/or transatlantic within 3 years and turn a profit from year 3.
 
1zm1
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:23 am

Sahaji39 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?
Boeing will have the B748 and B777X to use as platform. What will Airbus have?


In the scenario you mention, while there could be some technological development, why would that lead to the return of quad-jets? Capacity is not the only issue at play here (although it is a major one), it's also the fact that twin-jets are able to do everything that the quad-jets were able to do at a more efficient level and be more profitable for airlines. Boeing have figured this out. They doesn't use the B748 for passenger transport anymore but rather focus on using the B777 and B787, and that's why they're going ahead with the B777.

Secondly, in response Airbus have the A350 variants (with the largest variant to date, the -1000 carrying up to 400+ passengers) for future high capacity routes, so they could afford to cancel the A380 and direct those resources to a project that would be more profitable for the company.

Even if high capacity routes do come back, why would airlines switch back to quad-jets like the B747 and the A380 away from the B777, B787, A330 and A350 when these twin-jets were able to do everything either of those quads could do at a more efficient rate? The only quad-jets come back is if something catastrophic like a dual-engine failure happens on an ETOPS aircraft and even then, since engine technology has developed at such an impressive rate, that's incredibly unlikely.



But heres the problem. The air travel market is growing at a very high rate, and the pilot shortage is only getting bigger and bigger - airlines are already grounding flights because of the pilot shortage. Airlines want to fly smaller aircraft more frequently but 1) they dont have the crew resources to fly as often as they want in future and 2) all this frequency will congest airports so even if you have the crew resources you dont have the slots.

With new technologies and innovation, if the market for an A380 existed 10/15-20 yrs in the future but with lower operating costs, and airbus:
- made the whole aircraft out of carbon fibre reinforced polymer like the A350 or a stronger and lighter material
- potentially made better wings?
-convinced engine manufacturers to develop more efficient engines, which they would do if there was a market for moving more people with less crew at once

the cost to operate the aircraft would become much lower as it is lighter and more fuel efficient.
Could this prompt Airbus to restart production of a so called A380NEO with such improvements if the market existed in the future which IS a possibility?
Even if smaller acft ie 77-8/9, A350 etc are more efficient they carry less people and require more crew to operate on a frequent basis.
 
mzlin
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:24 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
DarkKnight5 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Bankroll me 100 A380's the way STC got his and I'll bankrupt every airline flying transsiberian and/or transatlantic within 3 years and turn a profit from year 3.


Wait a minute, you wouldn't happen to be ... Mark Lapidus of Amadeo leasing?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news ... ody-wants/

How did that idea of dry-leasing and then wet-leasing and then starting a new airline work out?
 
1zm1
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:25 am

AJRfromSYR wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Put the max amount of pax on an A380 in as dense a configuration as a B77W or even a B777-9.
I guarantee you that the A380 will beat it


If airlines could fill the plane with that many seats every day of the year than the a380 wouldn't be getting the axe.


But they would be able to in the future with the growth in air travel predictions
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:03 pm

Matt6461 wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Indeed - I have had to counter this idea that the A380-800 is flying on a much heavier A380-900 wing several times over the years. They are not the same wing, even if they look the same.


This is written as if you don't understand the difference between size, weight, and length.

[...]

Luckily for Airbus there are more somebodies in Toulouse who've demonstrated an ability to create strategically smart products. Those who haven't learned the lessons of Airbus past won't be long or high in Toulouse.


Matt, I'm not going to make this a personal (counter)attack, but sometimes you really need to get off your high horse. Believe it or not some of us here know a lot more about these things than you ever will. This is not the first time you've talked down to me as if you have some kind of authority on a complex subject, while badly explaining partly-related basics like an overconfident and arrogant first-year student.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
Sahaji39
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:03 pm

1zm1 wrote:
But heres the problem. The air travel market is growing at a very high rate, and the pilot shortage is only getting bigger and bigger - airlines are already grounding flights because of the pilot shortage. Airlines want to fly smaller aircraft more frequently but 1) they dont have the crew resources to fly as often as they want in future and 2) all this frequency will congest airports so even if you have the crew resources you dont have the slots.

With new technologies and innovation, if the market for an A380 existed 10/15-20 yrs in the future but with lower operating costs, and airbus:
- made the whole aircraft out of carbon fibre reinforced polymer like the A350 or a stronger and lighter material
- potentially made better wings?
-convinced engine manufacturers to develop more efficient engines, which they would do if there was a market for moving more people with less crew at once

the cost to operate the aircraft would become much lower as it is lighter and more fuel efficient.


While I get your argument, the B777-8/9 and A350-1000 cannot be considered small aircraft. Look them up, they're far more massive than you might be thinking they are. They can carry up to 400 passengers each, with the larger ones possibly even up to 450.

1zm1 wrote:
Could this prompt Airbus to restart production of a so called A380NEO with such improvements if the market existed in the future which IS a possibility?
Even if smaller acft ie 77-8/9, A350 etc are more efficient they carry less people and require more crew to operate on a frequent basis.


I don't think so. In theory it is possible, but I don't think it's likely. If they need more capacity, they could in theory stretch the A350 even further. The main issue besides aircraft size is why manufacturers would return to four engines when two has been proven to be more than enough. They could redesign something in the future, but they likely wouldn't bringing any quad-jets back. Wouldn't they use the technological advancements to make twins better, then just make even bigger twin-jets if the need ever arose?
 
Noshow
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:06 pm

A question about the wording please: So they end the production not the programme. Does this mean that in the future in theory it remains possible to start building A380 or modified future sisters? Or is this now practically and finally terminated forever?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:07 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Again, nobody wants it today.
Tomorrow things can change.
The rest is all blabla.

What isn't blabla is that Airbus has been waiting around for things to change for a good five years now and they haven't so they are shutting down the program.

You see, waiting around costs a lot of money, and causes you to lose other opportunities because you've tied up resources waiting around.

They had a plan in place to wait around another five or more years but then their main customer realized they couldn't afford to wait around either so they pulled their orders.

There are not that many tomorrows left for A380, so enjoy today.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
DarkKnight5
Posts: 188
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:43 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Some operators have more seats on their B77W than SQ have on their A380's.
Sure, an AF B77W with 381 or 468 seats will beat the CASM of a 379 seat SQ A380. That is a certainty. So we should conclude from that the A380's aren't competitive. :banghead:

You have again avoided the point, that the demand for high-density A380s does not exist because customers want frequency options. You can book more customers, high-fare and low-fare, flying two smaller planes at different times than one big plane once. The potential efficiency gain of a high-density A380 vs other planes is not great enough to offset the frequency demand trade off.

MAYBE that will change, maybe not. You can’t justify a loss making multi-billion dollar program on maybe there will be some demand for this at an unknown point in the future.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:08 pm

DarkKnight5 wrote:
You can’t justify a loss making multi-billion dollar program on maybe there will be some demand for this at an unknown point in the future.

Well, Airbus (ad Boeing for that matter) has done that more than once already, so... :biggrin:

BBD did that then sold half the program for $1, LOL! :biggrin:

Crazy business, this airliner stuff...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
WIederling
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:15 pm

neutronstar73 wrote:
I have to say, there is nothing quite like sitting at the end of Dulles 1-Right on the road to the SUH-National Air and Space Museum and looking over the trees to see an A380 or 748 approach for landing. Most impressive and apparently will begin to dwindle in the future.


Best ever I've seen going down the A7 was an A380 over Hamburg,
approach to XFW:23 in bright sunshine and dark sky thunderstorm to the east as background.
Majestic. Impression was more of an airship floating in than of a plane.
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bikerthai
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:30 pm

DarkKnight5 wrote:
You have again avoided the point, that the demand for high-density A380s does not exist because customers want frequency options.


There is one subtle derivation of frequency that some here is not grasping. Let say as the flying population grows, where is it growing from? Not all the growth will be at the major hubs. Say the population of Madrid will increase, then there will be more people wanting to fly from Madrid to say Orlando. So instead of flying a 737 from Madrid to London then an A380 on to Orlando, there will be enough passenger to fly a 787 directly from Madrid to Orlando (or if Orlando is maxed out . . . to Tampa). This is what Boeing is prediction to address the congestion issue. And this option is much more cost effective than trying to carry along a large plane that is not flexible enough to adjust with demands.

bt
Last edited by bikerthai on Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:30 pm

WIederling wrote:
Best ever I've seen going down the A7 was an A380 over Hamburg,
approach to XFW:23 in bright sunshine and dark sky thunderstorm to the east as background.
Majestic.
Impression was more of an airship floating in than of a plane.

I bet they were thinking the same thing back in Lakehurst NJ in 1937...
Fortunately we've learned that filling an airship with flammable gas is not the way to go.
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WIederling
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Best ever I've seen going down the A7 was an A380 over Hamburg,
approach to XFW:23 in bright sunshine and dark sky thunderstorm to the east as background.
Majestic.
Impression was more of an airship floating in than of a plane.

I bet they were thinking the same thing back in Lakehurst NJ in 1937...
Fortunately we've learned that filling an airship with flammable gas is not the way to go.


Not really in scope of the topic but what should I complain.
The design would have allowed and preferred Helium. difference in lift is only 8%.
But unavailable.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:14 pm

1zm1 wrote:
Sahaji39 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Follow me in this scenario: imagine that within 10 years, a new energy source or revolutionary powerplant is discovered or invented that would reduce aircraft energy/fuel costs by 80% compared to now.
This means that flying will become a lot cheaper, increasing demand significantly.

In that scenario, isn't everyone going to want as big an aircraft as possible?
Boeing will have the B748 and B777X to use as platform. What will Airbus have?


In the scenario you mention, while there could be some technological development, why would that lead to the return of quad-jets? Capacity is not the only issue at play here (although it is a major one), it's also the fact that twin-jets are able to do everything that the quad-jets were able to do at a more efficient level and be more profitable for airlines. Boeing have figured this out. They doesn't use the B748 for passenger transport anymore but rather focus on using the B777 and B787, and that's why they're going ahead with the B777.

Secondly, in response Airbus have the A350 variants (with the largest variant to date, the -1000 carrying up to 400+ passengers) for future high capacity routes, so they could afford to cancel the A380 and direct those resources to a project that would be more profitable for the company.

Even if high capacity routes do come back, why would airlines switch back to quad-jets like the B747 and the A380 away from the B777, B787, A330 and A350 when these twin-jets were able to do everything either of those quads could do at a more efficient rate? The only quad-jets come back is if something catastrophic like a dual-engine failure happens on an ETOPS aircraft and even then, since engine technology has developed at such an impressive rate, that's incredibly unlikely.



But heres the problem. The air travel market is growing at a very high rate, and the pilot shortage is only getting bigger and bigger - airlines are already grounding flights because of the pilot shortage. Airlines want to fly smaller aircraft more frequently but 1) they dont have the crew resources to fly as often as they want in future and 2) all this frequency will congest airports so even if you have the crew resources you dont have the slots.

With new technologies and innovation, if the market for an A380 existed 10/15-20 yrs in the future but with lower operating costs, and airbus:
- made the whole aircraft out of carbon fibre reinforced polymer like the A350 or a stronger and lighter material
- potentially made better wings?
-convinced engine manufacturers to develop more efficient engines, which they would do if there was a market for [b]moving more people with less crew at once


the cost to operate the aircraft would become much lower as it is lighter and more fuel efficient.
Could this prompt Airbus to restart production of a so called A380NEO with such improvements if the market existed in the future which IS a possibility?
Even if smaller acft ie 77-8/9, A350 etc are more efficient they carry less people and require more crew to operate on a frequent basis.

[/b]

Would be a killer aircraft with good economics but it would not be an A380. It would be a new aircraft with new R&D budget to pay for across a lot sales.
 
Vladex
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:20 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Not everything is on loss but that's why they are over producing.


I smell something amiss under the proverbial stone bridge.

Who is saying they are over producing 737's and 787? Or A320 and A350 for that matter. The back logs are in years and Boeing and Airbus is looking to increase production rate to meet customer demand.

Remind me the famous cliché "sure we are losing money on every car we sell, but we make it up with volume" :rotfl:

bt


They over produce and under sell for legacy airlines but then there is knock on effect and other airlines see it and they think they can replicate it and they get scammed and trapped.
Boeing is losing money on the passenger airplanes hence they are not investing barely anything in them and just warming them over decade after decade, that's why Trump blasted them that they were sucking up on tax payer money for 4 Billion on AF1.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:29 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Put the max amount of pax on an A380 in as dense a configuration as a B77W or even a B777-9.
I guarantee you that the A380 will beat it in CASM.


Airlines aren't stuffing their A380s with as many seats possible because they're trying to be nice to their customers. They're flying those around with spacious configurations because they wouldn't be able to fill the additional seats often enough. Airbus offered an 11-across seating option in economy and no airline customer bit. The A380's problem isn't CASM in a direct sense. The problem is the trip cost versus the available revenue based on market demand. CASM is related in that CASM is based on trip cost, distance, and number of seats, of course -- but there is no sense in lowering CASM by stuffing in another 100 seats if you won't be able to fill the seats.

Airlines put all those seats in the 77W and A350 because they can fill them.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
None of that matters because it's not performance that is killing the A380.
It's the market and Airbus' inability to get the model into the market, and then Airbus' executives inability to see beyond the next airshow and their next commissions/bonus check.


Yes, the market is killing the A380. Airbus can't get the model into the market because there is virtually no demand. The ANA order only happened because Airbus agreed to keep Skymark's HND slots out of DL's control. Airframes which are little more than ten years old are being broken up for parts because there's no secondhand market beyond a single frame which went to a charter operator with very close ties to the manufacturer.

It's not as if Airbus didn't shop the planes to customers! The U.S. network carriers all said no. If the Japanese carriers really wanted them, they'd be allowed at HND. Amedeo was allowed to order with very flexible terms in another attempt to place A380s with reluctant customers. You don't think Airbus's sales team would have seen huge bonus checks if they managed to place A380s at customers?
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:33 pm

Noshow wrote:
A question about the wording please: So they end the production not the programme. Does this mean that in the future in theory it remains possible to start building A380 or modified future sisters? Or is this now practically and finally terminated forever?


The program and production are being terminated. Both Airbus and A380 suppliers will wind down their production facilities and dedicate the space to making other products.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:34 pm

Vladex wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Not everything is on loss but that's why they are over producing.


I smell something amiss under the proverbial stone bridge.

Who is saying they are over producing 737's and 787? Or A320 and A350 for that matter. The back logs are in years and Boeing and Airbus is looking to increase production rate to meet customer demand.

Remind me the famous cliché "sure we are losing money on every car we sell, but we make it up with volume" :rotfl:

bt


They over produce and under sell for legacy airlines but then there is knock on effect and other airlines see it and they think they can replicate it and they get scammed and trapped.
Boeing is losing money on the passenger airplanes hence they are not investing barely anything in them and just warming them over decade after decade, that's why Trump blasted them that they were sucking up on tax payer money for 4 Billion on AF1.

Explain to me how Boeing almost always has profits higher than Airbus.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:41 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Vladex wrote:
bikerthai wrote:

I smell something amiss under the proverbial stone bridge.

Who is saying they are over producing 737's and 787? Or A320 and A350 for that matter. The back logs are in years and Boeing and Airbus is looking to increase production rate to meet customer demand.

Remind me the famous cliché "sure we are losing money on every car we sell, but we make it up with volume" :rotfl:

bt


They over produce and under sell for legacy airlines but then there is knock on effect and other airlines see it and they think they can replicate it and they get scammed and trapped.
Boeing is losing money on the passenger airplanes hence they are not investing barely anything in them and just warming them over decade after decade, that's why Trump blasted them that they were sucking up on tax payer money for 4 Billion on AF1.

Explain to me how Boeing almost always has profits higher than Airbus.


Those are taxpayer funded profits

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/pentago ... r-for.html
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/04/world/me ... index.html
Last edited by Vladex on Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:44 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:42 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Explain to me how Boeing almost always has profits higher than Airbus.


You need to be sure you're comparing apples and apples. Airbus and Boeing use different accounting rules.

Boeing has a page on their site where they show their financials using very similar rules to Airbus. Some years there is a massive difference to Boeing's reported numbers (to the tune of $billions of profit changing to $billions of losses - especially during the worst years of the 787 program).

But, this is a whole different topic and shouldn't be continued here.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:57 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Explain to me how Boeing almost always has profits higher than Airbus.


Probably off the back of its miltary sales...
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:04 pm

Vladex wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Not everything is on loss but that's why they are over producing.


I smell something amiss under the proverbial stone bridge.

Who is saying they are over producing 737's and 787? Or A320 and A350 for that matter. The back logs are in years and Boeing and Airbus is looking to increase production rate to meet customer demand.

Remind me the famous cliché "sure we are losing money on every car we sell, but we make it up with volume" :rotfl:

bt


They over produce and under sell for legacy airlines but then there is knock on effect and other airlines see it and they think they can replicate it and they get scammed and trapped.
Boeing is losing money on the passenger airplanes hence they are not investing barely anything in them and just warming them over decade after decade, that's why Trump blasted them that they were sucking up on tax payer money for 4 Billion on AF1.

According to their latest 10-K filing, in 2018 only 31% of revenues are from government contracts ($23 billion) and 59% came from commercial airplanes ($61 billion). In earnings, commercial airplanes accounted for 65% ($7.8 billion) of total earnings ($12 billion GAAP). So, what you said is incorrect. They are not losing money on passenger planes. Hard to say if this was ignorance or a lie.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:08 pm

jomur wrote:
Probably off the back of its miltary sales...


Airbus has a Defense & Space division, too, and in 2017 it generated almost 11 billion Euro in revenues.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:14 pm

DarkKnight5 wrote:
Vladex wrote:
bikerthai wrote:

I smell something amiss under the proverbial stone bridge.

Who is saying they are over producing 737's and 787? Or A320 and A350 for that matter. The back logs are in years and Boeing and Airbus is looking to increase production rate to meet customer demand.

Remind me the famous cliché "sure we are losing money on every car we sell, but we make it up with volume" :rotfl:

bt


They over produce and under sell for legacy airlines but then there is knock on effect and other airlines see it and they think they can replicate it and they get scammed and trapped.
Boeing is losing money on the passenger airplanes hence they are not investing barely anything in them and just warming them over decade after decade, that's why Trump blasted them that they were sucking up on tax payer money for 4 Billion on AF1.

According to their latest 10-K filing, in 2018 only 31% of revenues are from government contracts ($23 billion) and 59% came from commercial airplanes ($61 billion). In earnings, commercial airplanes accounted for 65% ($7.8 billion) of total earnings ($12 billion GAAP). So, what you said is incorrect. They are not losing money on passenger planes. Hard to say if this was ignorance or a lie.

Adding on, the KC46 program is on severe budget overruns, and has been bleeding money, the commercial division is probably helping to cushion some of these losses.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:40 pm

May I remind you to stay on topic, this thread is about Airbus announced the end of A380 production and subsequently all following threads being off-topic will be removed.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:50 pm

Vladex wrote:
bikerthai wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Not everything is on loss but that's why they are over producing.


I smell something amiss under the proverbial stone bridge.

Who is saying they are over producing 737's and 787? Or A320 and A350 for that matter. The back logs are in years and Boeing and Airbus is looking to increase production rate to meet customer demand.

Remind me the famous cliché "sure we are losing money on every car we sell, but we make it up with volume" :rotfl:

bt


They over produce and under sell for legacy airlines but then there is knock on effect and other airlines see it and they think they can replicate it and they get scammed and trapped.
Boeing is losing money on the passenger airplanes hence they are not investing barely anything in them and just warming them over decade after decade, that's why Trump blasted them that they were sucking up on tax payer money for 4 Billion on AF1.



huh, didn't know Boeing was a branch of the Department of Printing and Engraving.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:06 pm

SQ22 wrote:
May I remind you to stay on topic, this thread is about Airbus announced the end of A380 production and subsequently all following threads being off-topic will be removed.

Can we just delete the argument posts about Boeing losing money? Send it to another thread.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:15 pm

ScottB wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Put the max amount of pax on an A380 in as dense a configuration as a B77W or even a B777-9.
I guarantee you that the A380 will beat it in CASM.


Airlines aren't stuffing their A380s with as many seats possible because they're trying to be nice to their customers. They're flying those around with spacious configurations because they wouldn't be able to fill the additional seats often enough. Airbus offered an 11-across seating option in economy and no airline customer bit. The A380's problem isn't CASM in a direct sense. The problem is the trip cost versus the available revenue based on market demand. CASM is related in that CASM is based on trip cost, distance, and number of seats, of course -- but there is no sense in lowering CASM by stuffing in another 100 seats if you won't be able to fill the seats.

Airlines put all those seats in the 77W and A350 because they can fill them.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
None of that matters because it's not performance that is killing the A380.
It's the market and Airbus' inability to get the model into the market, and then Airbus' executives inability to see beyond the next airshow and their next commissions/bonus check.


Yes, the market is killing the A380. Airbus can't get the model into the market because there is virtually no demand. The ANA order only happened because Airbus agreed to keep Skymark's HND slots out of DL's control. Airframes which are little more than ten years old are being broken up for parts because there's no secondhand market beyond a single frame which went to a charter operator with very close ties to the manufacturer.

It's not as if Airbus didn't shop the planes to customers! The U.S. network carriers all said no. If the Japanese carriers really wanted them, they'd be allowed at HND. Amedeo was allowed to order with very flexible terms in another attempt to place A380s with reluctant customers. You don't think Airbus's sales team would have seen huge bonus checks if they managed to place A380s at customers?

If you can fill 600 seats 3 days a week and 350 seats 4 days a week, airlines have to make a choice:

1. Fly 500 seats on 1 plane every day and hope that passengers switch days if they offer a lower fare on those days.
2. Fly 600 seats 1 plane every day and fly 1000 seats empty per week.
3. Fly 350 seats every day withe extra frequency on 3 days and fly 200 empty seats a week.
4. Fly 300 seats every day with 3 extra flights and leave behind 150 passengers.

Option 3 has proven to be the way forward. It leaves room for reaccomondating due to irops and doesnt leave revenue behind.
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:58 pm

ikramerica wrote:
SQ22 wrote:
May I remind you to stay on topic, this thread is about Airbus announced the end of A380 production and subsequently all following threads being off-topic will be removed.

Can we just delete the argument posts about Boeing losing money? Send it to another thread.


Agreed. And those living under that stone bridge can comment on how the US government is funding the big performance bonuses that Boeing employee's are getting this week. :mrgreen:

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
1zm1
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:11 pm

Sahaji39 wrote:

While I get your argument, the B777-8/9 and A350-1000 cannot be considered small aircraft. Look them up, they're far more massive than you might be thinking they are. They can carry up to 400 passengers each, with the larger ones possibly even up to 450.

1zm1 wrote:
Could this prompt Airbus to restart production of a so called A380NEO with such improvements if the market existed in the future which IS a possibility?
Even if smaller acft ie 77-8/9, A350 etc are more efficient they carry less people and require more crew to operate on a frequent basis.


I don't think so. In theory it is possible, but I don't think it's likely. If they need more capacity, they could in theory stretch the A350 even further. The main issue besides aircraft size is why manufacturers would return to four engines when two has been proven to be more than enough. They could redesign something in the future, but they likely wouldn't bringing any quad-jets back. Wouldn't they use the technological advancements to make twins better, then just make even bigger twin-jets if the need ever arose?


But you can only make aircraft so long until they end up not fitting into the gates right? Because with the growth in air travel they will need to increase capacity on aircraft. Not to mention the pilot shortage.
With the upper deck you essentially have two decks in one, and if there was a need for say 600 or 700 passenger capacity in a standard first, business and economy layout, they could either look into a 380NEO or 380-900NEO etc right?

By the time the market develops a need for this kind of aircraft capacity, there will already be huge advancements in technology - They're already discussing new advancements such as Ultra fans for the 350. Advancements in not only engine efficiency but also the weight of the aircraft i.e using a different material for the fuselage and wings, maybe lighter and stronger than carbon fibre reinforced polymer would reduce the cost to operate a quad, maybe to the cost of on near that of operating a twin with current technologies. Ofcourse they could just put these improvements into twins and reduce their operational costs but then once again comes the problem of 1) only stretching the aircraft so far and 2) ensuring they have the crew resources to fly all these high frequency flights.

I understand with the current market the A380 gave us a supply surplus of seats and with the high operating costs for a quad, meant lower profits but if with a lighter air frame and more efficient engines the 380 was able to operate profitably at lower payloads, and there was a sufficient market for a capacity of this sort don't you think airbus would explore it? But not on the pretence of Hub to Hub but more like to any airport, similar to Emirates' current 380 operations.
 
morrisond
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:15 pm

The next VLA will most likely be a BWB. You need a step change in efficiency to make really large airframes attractive to airlines.
 
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:00 pm

Stitch wrote:
Noshow wrote:
A question about the wording please: So they end the production not the programme. Does this mean that in the future in theory it remains possible to start building A380 or modified future sisters? Or is this now practically and finally terminated forever?


The program and production are being terminated. Both Airbus and A380 suppliers will wind down their production facilities and dedicate the space to making other products.

On my way back from work I was thinking if any aircraft production has been resumed after some years. The only example that came to my mind is the DHC 6, correct me if I am wrong. There were also plans to restart the production of Do228‘s or Do328 (by Turkey IIRC) but they never materialized...
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:11 pm

1zm1 wrote:
Sahaji39 wrote:

While I get your argument, the B777-8/9 and A350-1000 cannot be considered small aircraft. Look them up, they're far more massive than you might be thinking they are. They can carry up to 400 passengers each, with the larger ones possibly even up to 450.

1zm1 wrote:
Could this prompt Airbus to restart production of a so called A380NEO with such improvements if the market existed in the future which IS a possibility?
Even if smaller acft ie 77-8/9, A350 etc are more efficient they carry less people and require more crew to operate on a frequent basis.


I don't think so. In theory it is possible, but I don't think it's likely. If they need more capacity, they could in theory stretch the A350 even further. The main issue besides aircraft size is why manufacturers would return to four engines when two has been proven to be more than enough. They could redesign something in the future, but they likely wouldn't bringing any quad-jets back. Wouldn't they use the technological advancements to make twins better, then just make even bigger twin-jets if the need ever arose?


But you can only make aircraft so long until they end up not fitting into the gates right? Because with the growth in air travel they will need to increase capacity on aircraft. Not to mention the pilot shortage.
With the upper deck you essentially have two decks in one, and if there was a need for say 600 or 700 passenger capacity in a standard first, business and economy layout, they could either look into a 380NEO or 380-900NEO etc right?

By the time the market develops a need for this kind of aircraft capacity, there will already be huge advancements in technology - They're already discussing new advancements such as Ultra fans for the 350. Advancements in not only engine efficiency but also the weight of the aircraft i.e using a different material for the fuselage and wings, maybe lighter and stronger than carbon fibre reinforced polymer would reduce the cost to operate a quad, maybe to the cost of on near that of operating a twin with current technologies. Ofcourse they could just put these improvements into twins and reduce their operational costs but then once again comes the problem of 1) only stretching the aircraft so far and 2) ensuring they have the crew resources to fly all these high frequency flights.

I understand with the current market the A380 gave us a supply surplus of seats and with the high operating costs for a quad, meant lower profits but if with a lighter air frame and more efficient engines the 380 was able to operate profitably at lower payloads, and there was a sufficient market for a capacity of this sort don't you think airbus would explore it? But not on the pretence of Hub to Hub but more like to any airport, similar to Emirates' current 380 operations.

Yes, if it was a better airplane, and if there was better demand for that better airplane, it would maybe sell better, but not necessarily if you apply those same advancements to the twins.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:24 pm

Right now the biggest engine ever made is 115,000 lbs thrust, and that os stretching the technology about as far as it will go, according to most. But when the 777 was launched they were looking for around 70,000 lbs thrust, and at that time (1990) THAT was considered about as far as the technology would go. And those two benchmarks were only about 10 years apart. I believe that if the need for a 500-600 passenger airliner does develop, they will be able to make a 150,000 or 175,000 lbs thrust engine, or whatever it takes to power it with two engines. But the way things are going, I don’t think that will happen for a long, long time.
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WIederling
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:26 pm

N14AZ wrote:
There were also plans to restart the production of Do228‘s or Do328 (by Turkey IIRC) but they never materialized...


Do 228, RUAG in Germany:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dornier_Do_228
Do 328, tentative:
http://www.austrianaviation.net/detail/ ... rnier-328/
Murphy is an optimist
 
morrisond
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:47 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Right now the biggest engine ever made is 115,000 lbs thrust, and that os stretching the technology about as far as it will go, according to most. But when the 777 was launched they were looking for around 70,000 lbs thrust, and at that time (1990) THAT was considered about as far as the technology would go. And those two benchmarks were only about 10 years apart. I believe that if the need for a 500-600 passenger airliner does develop, they will be able to make a 150,000 or 175,000 lbs thrust engine, or whatever it takes to power it with two engines. But the way things are going, I don’t think that will happen for a long, long time.


A BWB wouldn't need 150 -175K engines - 115-130 might be enough (depending on how big it is) plus you could always use three at a lower thrust range very easily.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:16 pm

morrisond wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Right now the biggest engine ever made is 115,000 lbs thrust, and that os stretching the technology about as far as it will go, according to most. But when the 777 was launched they were looking for around 70,000 lbs thrust, and at that time (1990) THAT was considered about as far as the technology would go. And those two benchmarks were only about 10 years apart. I believe that if the need for a 500-600 passenger airliner does develop, they will be able to make a 150,000 or 175,000 lbs thrust engine, or whatever it takes to power it with two engines. But the way things are going, I don’t think that will happen for a long, long time.


A BWB wouldn't need 150 -175K engines - 115-130 might be enough (depending on how big it is) plus you could always use three at a lower thrust range very easily.

Indeed engine-out considerations mean three is likely to be the minimum number of engines for a BWB transport.

V/F
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Matt6461
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:41 pm

SomebodyInToulouse wrote:
Matt, I'm not going to make this a personal (counter)attack, but sometimes you really need to get off your high horse. Believe it or not some of us here know a lot more about these things than you ever will.


IIRC you've admitted in the past not knowing aerodynamics and engineering very well. The overwhelming majority of jobs with a big company don't directly relate to technical product specifications. That's no personal attack; it's just a statement about the validity/not of your implied argument from authority.

I've made a very basic assertion of how the fundamentals have driven the A380's failure: It doesn't excel on any of the three metrics of airliner performance; a VLA must excel on at least one of these metrics to be successful.

Instead of getting defensive about your personal cred, you might want to address that assertion.
If you don't feel yourself technically competent to address the assertion, fine. Just don't pretend your refusal owes to some unfathomably deep well of knowledge.
 
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Matt6461
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:46 pm

morrisond wrote:
The next VLA will most likely be a BWB. You need a step change in efficiency to make really large airframes attractive to airlines.


The crucial question is whether there is a step-change in efficiency due to scale for BWB or any other form.
What about the BWB form makes a VLA-BWB better than a 300-seat BWB? IIRC I've seen studies showing 300 seat BWB's as viable.

You don't need new geometry to see a step change for VLA's: double-deckers have intrinsically ~35% less fuselage drag per passenger.
That's a game change if done well.

For a VLA to be viable, there has to be a necessary connection between VLA scale and large efficiency delta.
We're not talking about "saving on pilot costs" or other deltas on the order of a few percentage points - these are insufficient for VLA business case.

If you design a terrible double-decker based on fatuous strategic reasoning, then you get the A380.
Even with all the A380's faults, it was still easily the most efficient plane in its day. That alone should demonstrate the double-decker's potential.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:40 am

ScottB wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Put the max amount of pax on an A380 in as dense a configuration as a B77W or even a B777-9.
I guarantee you that the A380 will beat it in CASM.


Airlines aren't stuffing their A380s with as many seats possible because they're trying to be nice to their customers. They're flying those around with spacious configurations because they wouldn't be able to fill the additional seats often enough. Airbus offered an 11-across seating option in economy and no airline customer bit. The A380's problem isn't CASM in a direct sense. The problem is the trip cost versus the available revenue based on market demand. CASM is related in that CASM is based on trip cost, distance, and number of seats, of course -- but there is no sense in lowering CASM by stuffing in another 100 seats if you won't be able to fill the seats.

Airlines put all those seats in the 77W and A350 because they can fill them.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
None of that matters because it's not performance that is killing the A380.
It's the market and Airbus' inability to get the model into the market, and then Airbus' executives inability to see beyond the next airshow and their next commissions/bonus check.


Yes, the market is killing the A380. Airbus can't get the model into the market because there is virtually no demand. The ANA order only happened because Airbus agreed to keep Skymark's HND slots out of DL's control. Airframes which are little more than ten years old are being broken up for parts because there's no secondhand market beyond a single frame which went to a charter operator with very close ties to the manufacturer.

It's not as if Airbus didn't shop the planes to customers! The U.S. network carriers all said no. If the Japanese carriers really wanted them, they'd be allowed at HND. Amedeo was allowed to order with very flexible terms in another attempt to place A380s with reluctant customers. You don't think Airbus's sales team would have seen huge bonus checks if they managed to place A380s at customers?


If Boeing does do a squashed fuse for the 797, it will give them critical information about how to scale it up for the 777/747 replacement.

That would lead to a single level 3-3/3-3 fuselage with room for the bulk of the Y bathrooms below like the A346. The main deck in Y would have 2 wide aisles for carts abd a narrower aisle in the middle for access only. You also get 2-2-2-2 in Y+ and 1-2-2-1 in J.

That would be 20-25% increase in capacity compared to a current 3-4-3 with everything on one level.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:16 am

ikramerica wrote:
ScottB wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Put the max amount of pax on an A380 in as dense a configuration as a B77W or even a B777-9.
I guarantee you that the A380 will beat it in CASM.


Airlines aren't stuffing their A380s with as many seats possible because they're trying to be nice to their customers. They're flying those around with spacious configurations because they wouldn't be able to fill the additional seats often enough. Airbus offered an 11-across seating option in economy and no airline customer bit. The A380's problem isn't CASM in a direct sense. The problem is the trip cost versus the available revenue based on market demand. CASM is related in that CASM is based on trip cost, distance, and number of seats, of course -- but there is no sense in lowering CASM by stuffing in another 100 seats if you won't be able to fill the seats.

Airlines put all those seats in the 77W and A350 because they can fill them.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
None of that matters because it's not performance that is killing the A380.
It's the market and Airbus' inability to get the model into the market, and then Airbus' executives inability to see beyond the next airshow and their next commissions/bonus check.


Yes, the market is killing the A380. Airbus can't get the model into the market because there is virtually no demand. The ANA order only happened because Airbus agreed to keep Skymark's HND slots out of DL's control. Airframes which are little more than ten years old are being broken up for parts because there's no secondhand market beyond a single frame which went to a charter operator with very close ties to the manufacturer.

It's not as if Airbus didn't shop the planes to customers! The U.S. network carriers all said no. If the Japanese carriers really wanted them, they'd be allowed at HND. Amedeo was allowed to order with very flexible terms in another attempt to place A380s with reluctant customers. You don't think Airbus's sales team would have seen huge bonus checks if they managed to place A380s at customers?


If Boeing does do a squashed fuse for the 797, it will give them critical information about how to scale it up for the 777/747 replacement.

That would lead to a single level 3-3/3-3 fuselage with room for the bulk of the Y bathrooms below like the A346. The main deck in Y would have 2 wide aisles for carts abd a narrower aisle in the middle for access only. You also get 2-2-2-2 in Y+ and 1-2-2-1 in J.

That would be 20-25% increase in capacity compared to a current 3-4-3 with everything on one level.


Interesting, so there will be a market for a 12 abreast squashed and stretched B777X/B747 replacement but not for a nextgen A380...

I'll show you a squashed 12Y cabin today. The A380 main deck is the squashed Y cabin that you are talking about and with thinner sidewall panels and narrower aisles, even 12Y is not impossible.
:banghead:
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:37 am

Matt6461 wrote:
SomebodyInToulouse wrote:
Matt, I'm not going to make this a personal (counter)attack, but sometimes you really need to get off your high horse. Believe it or not some of us here know a lot more about these things than you ever will.


IIRC you've admitted in the past not knowing aerodynamics and engineering very well.


I remember saying that aerodynamics wasn't my strongest subject at uni, because unlike some people I will not pretend to be an expert in something I'm not. However, I was taking those aero courses (plural) for my aeronautical engineering degree. So...

The overwhelming majority of jobs with a big company don't directly relate to technical product specifications. That's no personal attack; it's just a statement about the validity/not of your implied argument from authority.

I've made a very basic assertion of how the fundamentals have driven the A380's failure: It doesn't excel on any of the three metrics of airliner performance; a VLA must excel on at least one of these metrics to be successful.


That, excuse my French, has bugger all to do with my point on the a380-800 wing being a lot lighter than the a380-900 wing would have been.

Instead of getting defensive about your personal cred, you might want to address that assertion.


No I bloody well don't. I make a point about the wing, you make an insulting personal attack that I don't know what I'm talking about. That's literally what happened.


If you don't feel yourself technically competent to address the assertion, fine. Just don't pretend your refusal owes to some unfathomably deep well of knowledge.


And yet you continue! Unbelievable!

Look, I thought I'd given enough hints already and don't like to come across like a dick, but you leave me no choice but to spell it out for you: I have actually been involved with work on the A380, including the wing - so yes, I am more of an authority than you on these subjects.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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AirCal737
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Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:51 am

For those who states that China needs tons of long range VLAs in the future decades:
It's not likely that this will ever happen.
I truely agree that Chinese airports are running out of slots, but the thing is, domestic travel still takes up the majority of the passenger flow with the exception of HKG which is politically, not mainland China.
However internatioal travel is still reletively weak, especially for 3 out of the 5 major mainland hubs, CAN, SZX and CTU. The government pay the airlines just to keep some 787 and A330 routes running.
There are routes such as CAN-LAX or PEK-JFK which indeed has a high amout of passenger flow, but the overall percentage of international passenger flow in China is still low.
In contrast, we have thousands of 737s and A320s taking up slots and flying on domestic routes. If you have ever done a lot planespotting in mainland China, you would probably get sick to these aircraft.
In recent years we have seen older widebodie returning to domestic service(744s) and newer ones(748, A380, 332/3, 788/9, 77W) are also flying between tier 1/2 cities. China is the only place where you can fly almost all large widebodies domestically(With the exception of 763 an 773 which are. retired)
With the advent of the NMA we will just see tons of A320s and 737NGs(China retires most aircraft pretty early) being replaced NMAs. The NMA and 787 will also help make more international travel possible.
If China really needs a large volume of VLAs, it's going to be a new larger 747-400D. As I said before China “disputes” all kinds of long range widebodies on short domestic routes, there may be a dedicated version one day.
And that only happens when 779s are not big enough for domestic travel.
Also, Chinese carriers wants flexibility. You can see CA 748s returning form JFK and departing for CAN in the same day. Dedicated short range frames are't capable of that. You can see the A330 regional failed to gain customer interest.

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