User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26342
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:25 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
To keep the WWTT in operation I think a combo conversion is required. This could be half to full main deck cargo, AFAIK this has been studied in concept by Airbus.


Studied and abandoned. There will be no combi or passenger-to-freighter conversion of the A380s. They will serve as passenger frames until they are removed from service and scrapped.


CFRPwingALbody wrote:
If the A380 fleet really remains >200 for another decade, there might even be a A380NEO modification.


The A380neo was a non-starter with >200 planes planned (EK looking to order 50 new plus replace their existing fleet of 150 plus hopeful upgrades of the other operators).


CFRPwingALbody wrote:
The flaw of the A380 project was that is was designed as extremely large TPAC plane, with the possibility for a further stretch (the A380-900).


Asia was where the growth was expected - the "Mega Hubs" that underlined the A380's business case - so the airframe had to have the range to service them.


CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Several airports in Europe (and Asia) are slot restraint.


And yet those airports are building new runways and new terminals to reduce those slot restrictions.


CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Sorry but I don't get the hourly flight service by the alliances between LHR and JFK. Instead of 10 daily direct flights wouldn't 8 daily direct flights and two flights to other destinations be better for the networks?


A significant portion of LHR-JFK traffic is businessfolk who need flexible schedules (so more frequencies). Those frequencies also allow more banks of connecting flights to link up with them for the tourists who are not so particular about when they leave / arrive.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 14882
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:35 pm

Stitch, considering the size, wonder if one will end up as a bed and breakfast somewhere. Smaller aircraft have been used for stranger things.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26342
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:38 pm

ikramerica wrote:
Stitch, considering the size, wonder if one will end up as a bed and breakfast somewhere. Smaller aircraft have been used for stranger things.


Due to the small "installed base", I have to believe that their value as parts and raw materials will preclude such an end
 
moa999
Posts: 516
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:44 pm

Any thoughts on whether Airbus will release any of the Plus enhancements as retrofit.

Eg. Qantas (subject to engine support) will likely fly it's aircraft for another 8-10 years (they are quite happy going to 20+) - would Winglets make sense
Or could you gain space by installing the smaller proposed stairs in the refurb that commences soon
 
XT6Wagon
Posts: 2722
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2007 4:06 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:34 am

Stitch wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
Stitch, considering the size, wonder if one will end up as a bed and breakfast somewhere. Smaller aircraft have been used for stranger things.


Due to the small "installed base", I have to believe that their value as parts and raw materials will preclude such an end


bare fuselage shell and wings likely won't be that valuable. Not sure a restaurant would want or need all the mechanical bits that are worth something. Its all the little panels and areo bits that I think would be of value to both parties as people would want it to look like a plane and not a salvage job... while airlines might like to be able to replace a nose cone or other bit that got bent on a flying plane.

That said unless its opening up at the end of a major airport, how are you going to get it anywhere cheap? We can see they travel poorly through french villages when in pieces and well planned for.
 
User avatar
hongkongflyer
Posts: 687
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:23 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:03 am

luckyone wrote:
Revelation wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I hadn't paid attention to ANA's A380 configuration before. That seems ridiculously premium-heavy for the planned HND-HNL mission. I would have expected no F and more like 30-40 J.

Someone above posted that Airbus was making lemons out of lemonade with regard to the A380 program.

Seems ANA also is in the lemonade business.

To me it suggests they know they'll totally trash yields if they try to pack it to the gills with the bucket and spade crowd, and their only hope is to try to capture a large percentage of the high earners heading to HI for business or pleasure.

If in a few years the HNL route ends up with indigestible losses, they will still have blocked DL from getting the vital HND slots, and IMHO the three A380s will be flown off to Tarbes to join their sisters in the scrapping queue, and a few years after their role as an extortion victim will just be a bad memory for ANA.

In the big picture view, Airbus was so busy winning the VLA market share battle they lost the profit war. C'est la guerre...

How does ANA have anything to do with whether or not Delta is awarded a slot at HND to operate HNL. Unless I’m completely misreading the HND thread, there are (currently) twelve Haneda authorities up for grabs, and those awards are at the discretion of The USDOT. Japan, and ANA for that matter, don’t appear to have had a lot of say in that.


Same as what BA has / will do to save every slot in LHR they have / get any slot available in LHR
 
acjbbj
Posts: 310
Joined: Sat Mar 17, 2018 7:06 pm

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:21 pm

777PHX wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:
gregn21 wrote:
Who would’ve thought the 747-8 would outlive the 380. Ha!


A380 sales still obliterated those of 747-8i. Which is a good thing. And it is Airbus Industrie that will go down in history as the one who built largest passenger jetliner.


Of course, the 747 lasted 50 years while the A380 will be lucky to last 15. The A380 is also the biggest failure in commercial airliners since the MD11, so yeah, I guess that's something to be proud of.


*L-1011
Douglas Aircraft Company
Born: 22 July 1921 (Santa Monica, CA)
Died: 23 May 2006 (Long Beach, CA), age 84 years 10 months 1 day
You will be missed.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1430
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:54 pm

acjbbj wrote:
777PHX wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:

A380 sales still obliterated those of 747-8i. Which is a good thing. And it is Airbus Industrie that will go down in history as the one who built largest passenger jetliner.


Of course, the 747 lasted 50 years while the A380 will be lucky to last 15. The A380 is also the biggest failure in commercial airliners since the MD11, so yeah, I guess that's something to be proud of.


*L-1011


Yes it caused Lockheed to exit Civil Aviation. MD-11 basically caused MD to be a takeover candidate.
 
User avatar
mfranjic
Posts: 236
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2013 7:54 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:09 pm

ScottB wrote:

mfranjic wrote:

Although I can't back it up with some data and calculations, I always had the feeling Airbus A380's wings are strong and solid enough and would not need added structure to support added weight of Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines, just modified pylons.


You are certainly welcome to your feelings…


Thank You, ScottB.

ScottB wrote:

… however, I am glad that both EASA and FAA tend to rely more on actual data and calculations…


Well, that's the main difference between Image and Image on one side and me on the other one; I have that fantastic privilege I can rely freely on my feelings writing posts here, unlike those working in EASA and FAA who have to rely on the facts and common sense. If I were one of those responsible and competent in the mentioned organizations, I am not sure I would share my feelings just like that. As a matter of fact, they would not even hire me there. Wouldn't pass the psychological testing ...

ScottB wrote:

… and would very likely insist that Airbus show their work in order to demonstrate that A380s fitted with Trent XWBs are every bit as safe (if not more so) than the already-certified versions.


I would like very much to see the feasibility study and cost and benefit analysis or at least the short multidisciplinary approached presentation (the one in the PowerPoint would be enough), backed up with some calculations of the Image.A380 aircraft powered by four Image.Trent XWB-84 ( XWB-79B ), three-shaft, high-bypass turbofans, just to find out if the Airbus A380's wings are strong and solid enough or would need some accessories, strengthening of the wings (by adding the structural reinforcements) and wings' joins to support the added weight of Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines or just a (slightly) modified pylons. Besides, I would also like to learn what fuel and possible maintenance costs savings would the installation of these engines, instead of those existing Image.GP7270 and Image.Trent 900, bring to the airlines.

Why did I conclude that there are no, at least not those insurmountable, technical limiting factors for the eventual installation of the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines on the Airbus A380's wings? If there were any, I guess someone in front of the Airbus SE factory would have mentioned them before than the nonexistent 'business case' and that's why I have written in my previous post:


I can't remember if the factory has ever come out with an official statement that Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines are too heavy for Airbus A380 aircraft. The fact is they just couldn't see the business model in reengining the aircraft by those engines. During the 2017 Paris Air Show (PAS) Mr. Fabrice Brégier has said that there is no business case for the Trent XWBs on Airbus A380 and that Airbus A380neo will have to wait for the next generation of the engine technology…


Which ' business case' is to be studied here actually? …

ScottB wrote:

… There'd be the cost of certifying that the airframe can structurally support heavier engines as well as all the related design and modification costs … A set of four Trent XWB engines would probably run $80-100 million (list is apparently ~$35 million) and with the program development costs ...



* * * * *

I have seen, not on one occasion, Image.Trent 7000, three-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engines (fan diameter: 2.844,8 mm / 112,0 in; BPR: 10,0:1; engine architecture: 1F–8IPC=6HPC1HPT=1IPT–6LPT), OPR: 50,0:1, mentioned as Airbus A380neo's possible engine option. With its thrust range around 320,0 kN / 72,0 klbf ( Rolls-Royce Trent 7000-72/C engine is rated at 324,00 kN / 33.039 kgf / 72.838 lbf ) and aimed for the propulsion of the Image.A330-941 aircraft, Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engine is just too small and insufficiently powerfull, even for the current Airbus A380 aircraft, let alone possible streched A380neo type. Searching for a sufficient thrust from that engine would require its thorough reconstruction, in addition to the fact its propulsive efficiency was specifically tailored for the Airbus A330neo aircraft. Even if you speed the engine's rotation and increase its mass flow, make it hotter by increasing its FPR, CPR and TIT, the share of the fan's flow in its thrust and the difference in between the velocity of the exhaust gases and the flight speed would not make it propulsive efficient for this purpose. Not nearly. Besides, you would have pretty different engine (something similar to Trent XWB-97 engine compared to the basic Trent XWB engine). No matter of the fact that the Trent 7000's architecture (1F–8IPC=6HPC1HPT=1IPT–6LPT) and its design are heavily leaned on the Trent 1000 TEN engine's construction, its core's geometry is adapted and sized to the thrust required for the propulsion of the Airbus A330neo aircraft. The Airbus A380 should be rather different aircraft to accomodate four Image.Trent 7000 engines as a suitable propulsion option…

Before than the Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engine, I would consider those two engines of the highest thrust, currently certified with both Image.787-9 / 10 Dreamliner aircraft (MTOW 560.000 lb / 254.011 kg) as a possible Airbus A380 re-engining option:
- Image.GEnx-1B76/P2, twin-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engines (fan diameter: 2.821,9 mm / 111,1 in; BPR: 7,9 -9,1:1; engine architecture: 1F+4LPC–10HPC2HPT–7LPT), OPR: 58,1:1, rated at 349,19 kN / 35.607 kgf / 78.500 lbf or Image.Trent 1000-J3, three-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engines (fan diameter: 2.844,8 mm / 112,0 in; BPR: 10,0:1; engine architecture: 1F–8IPC=6HPC1HPT=1IPT–6LPT), OPR: 50,0:1, rated at 347,54 kN / 35.439 kgf / 78.129 lbf. Both engines of pretty much lower thrust than the Emirates were looking for Boeing 787-10 aircraft, once they were very interesing in …

Mario
"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile" - Albert Einstein
 
Walaneh
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:51 am

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:41 pm

LLA001 wrote:
I never flew A380 but if the rumors are true, it is sad to hear production end so quickly. I like the look of quads and trijets, and just to see tubes with two engines on the side all the time is quite boring for spotting.


A380 which costs $450 million will fly good for 20 years. We will see A380s in the skies for 20 years more
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21189
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:53 pm

Walaneh wrote:
A380 which costs $450 million will fly good for 20 years. We will see A380s in the skies for 20 years more

We might see A380s flying in 2039, or we might see many if not all airlines flying A380s deciding that very large and very heavy aircraft whose engines performance has not been improved since 2016 and whose production has ceased in 2021 are hard to justify economically and should be replaced long before 2039.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17905
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:04 am

mfranjic wrote:
ScottB wrote:

mfranjic wrote:

Although I can't back it up with some data and calculations, I always had the feeling Airbus A380's wings are strong and solid enough and would not need added structure to support added weight of Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines, just modified pylons.


You are certainly welcome to your feelings…


Thank You, ScottB.

ScottB wrote:

… however, I am glad that both EASA and FAA tend to rely more on actual data and calculations…


Well, that's the main difference between Image and Image on one side and me on the other one; I have that fantastic privilege I can rely freely on my feelings writing posts here, unlike those working in EASA and FAA who have to rely on the facts and common sense. If I were one of those responsible and competent in the mentioned organizations, I am not sure I would share my feelings just like that. As a matter of fact, they would not even hire me there. Wouldn't pass the psychological testing ...

ScottB wrote:

… and would very likely insist that Airbus show their work in order to demonstrate that A380s fitted with Trent XWBs are every bit as safe (if not more so) than the already-certified versions.


I would like very much to see the feasibility study and cost and benefit analysis or at least the short multidisciplinary approached presentation (the one in the PowerPoint would be enough), backed up with some calculations of the Image.A380 aircraft powered by four Image.Trent XWB-84 ( XWB-79B ), three-shaft, high-bypass turbofans, just to find out if the Airbus A380's wings are strong and solid enough or would need some accessories, strengthening of the wings (by adding the structural reinforcements) and wings' joins to support the added weight of Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines or just a (slightly) modified pylons. Besides, I would also like to learn what fuel and possible maintenance costs savings would the installation of these engines, instead of those existing Image.GP7270 and Image.Trent 900, bring to the airlines.

Why did I conclude that there are no, at least not those insurmountable, technical limiting factors for the eventual installation of the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines on the Airbus A380's wings? If there were any, I guess someone in front of the Airbus SE factory would have mentioned them before than the nonexistent 'business case' and that's why I have written in my previous post:


I can't remember if the factory has ever come out with an official statement that Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines are too heavy for Airbus A380 aircraft. The fact is they just couldn't see the business model in reengining the aircraft by those engines. During the 2017 Paris Air Show (PAS) Mr. Fabrice Brégier has said that there is no business case for the Trent XWBs on Airbus A380 and that Airbus A380neo will have to wait for the next generation of the engine technology…


Which ' business case' is to be studied here actually? …

ScottB wrote:

… There'd be the cost of certifying that the airframe can structurally support heavier engines as well as all the related design and modification costs … A set of four Trent XWB engines would probably run $80-100 million (list is apparently ~$35 million) and with the program development costs ...



* * * * *

I have seen, not on one occasion, Image.Trent 7000, three-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engines (fan diameter: 2.844,8 mm / 112,0 in; BPR: 10,0:1; engine architecture: 1F–8IPC=6HPC1HPT=1IPT–6LPT), OPR: 50,0:1, mentioned as Airbus A380neo's possible engine option. With its thrust range around 320,0 kN / 72,0 klbf ( Rolls-Royce Trent 7000-72/C engine is rated at 324,00 kN / 33.039 kgf / 72.838 lbf ) and aimed for the propulsion of the Image.A330-941 aircraft, Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engine is just too small and insufficiently powerfull, even for the current Airbus A380 aircraft, let alone possible streched A380neo type. Searching for a sufficient thrust from that engine would require its thorough reconstruction, in addition to the fact its propulsive efficiency was specifically tailored for the Airbus A330neo aircraft. Even if you speed the engine's rotation and increase its mass flow, make it hotter by increasing its FPR, CPR and TIT, the share of the fan's flow in its thrust and the difference in between the velocity of the exhaust gases and the flight speed would not make it propulsive efficient for this purpose. Not nearly. Besides, you would have pretty different engine (something similar to Trent XWB-97 engine compared to the basic Trent XWB engine). No matter of the fact that the Trent 7000's architecture (1F–8IPC=6HPC1HPT=1IPT–6LPT) and its design are heavily leaned on the Trent 1000 TEN engine's construction, its core's geometry is adapted and sized to the thrust required for the propulsion of the Airbus A330neo aircraft. The Airbus A380 should be rather different aircraft to accomodate four Image.Trent 7000 engines as a suitable propulsion option…

Before than the Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engine, I would consider those two engines of the highest thrust, currently certified with both Image.787-9 / 10 Dreamliner aircraft (MTOW 560.000 lb / 254.011 kg) as a possible Airbus A380 re-engining option:
- Image.GEnx-1B76/P2, twin-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engines (fan diameter: 2.821,9 mm / 111,1 in; BPR: 7,9 -9,1:1; engine architecture: 1F+4LPC–10HPC2HPT–7LPT), OPR: 58,1:1, rated at 349,19 kN / 35.607 kgf / 78.500 lbf or Image.Trent 1000-J3, three-shaft, high-bypass, turbofan engines (fan diameter: 2.844,8 mm / 112,0 in; BPR: 10,0:1; engine architecture: 1F–8IPC=6HPC1HPT=1IPT–6LPT), OPR: 50,0:1, rated at 347,54 kN / 35.439 kgf / 78.129 lbf. Both engines of pretty much lower thrust than the Emirates were looking for Boeing 787-10 aircraft, once they were very interesing in …

Mario

You do know the T7000 is just a derated T1000 with bleed air subsystems instead of the large generator, right? The reason the T7000 is mentioned is that with a new nacelle, it would be much more compatible.

But the A380NEOvis dead. EK wanted it. Airbus couldn't find enough customers to justify the business case.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21189
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:50 pm

FG ( https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -a-456192/ ) reports that RR is taking a ~$250m loss due to A380 termination:

The charge reflects "onerous contracts, tooling write-offs and the acceleration of depreciation and amortisation on associated Trent 900 programme assets", says the engine maker.

Wonder if this includes RLI, or if they're presuming it will be forgiven?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
ScottB
Posts: 6612
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:42 pm

Revelation wrote:
We might see A380s flying in 2039, or we might see many if not all airlines flying A380s deciding that very large and very heavy aircraft whose engines performance has not been improved since 2016 and whose production has ceased in 2021 are hard to justify economically and should be replaced long before 2039.


I think EK could fly the A380s until the 2050s if they want to. They'd just have to be willing to support the expense of maintaining the supply chain for parts. I don't recall if I saw it above, but I do wonder if the mooted plans for a third runway at LHR might have been one of the final nails in the A380's coffin; LHR was the poster child for increasing capacity via VLAs even if the issue of wake turbulence meant the A380 wasn't an ideal solution. With the opening of HND to international flights and the long-delayed construction of additional runways, capacity constraints are no longer the issue they once were at NRT; the Chinese are dealing with growth at PEK by building a huge new international airport to split the traffic.

The biggest need for A380 long-term might be unique to EK until they can move operations to DWC since they are constrained by DXB's two runways. With TK moving its full operation to the new IST later this year, I think the move to DWC will be necessary for EK to remain competitive.
 
Lucien23
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:16 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:43 pm

AFAIK 777-300ER and A340-600 gears put higher loads on the apron than the A380.
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1402
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:02 pm

Given the focus rr has on ultrafan will parts be available into the 2030’s?

With all the PIPs sure to come on twins won’t the economic delta on the 380 only get worse?
 
User avatar
mfranjic
Posts: 236
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2013 7:54 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:50 pm

lightsaber wrote:

You do know the T7000 is just a derated T1000 with bleed air subsystems instead of the large generator, right? ...



Mostly … I do. Thank You for asking, lightsaber.

Your understanding and knowing the engine is at such a level which sometimes includes the expression most of the participants in this forum, I guess, follow very difficult. Including me, mainly because of my pretty hard understanding of the technical details in English, the language not particularly close to me. This also means sometimes I write something by thinking something implies, and I just can't explain or translate it in a comprehensible language. Very often, writing on this forum, I have almost bleeded out :smile: trying to translate to English what I have previosly written in Croatian. I just can't think in English language …

Regardless of this fact, I remember so well our very courteous, content, interesting and correct communication, including the private messages, still from the time I was much more present on this forum…

In respect of Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engine; although all the major machinery of the Trent 7000 engine are that of the Trent 1000 TEN ( Trent 1000-_3 models ), powering Image.787-9/10 aircraft, with the key difference of the cabin bleed modification incorporated, this change from all-electric to bleed-air system also leaded to the other engineering differences to make it applicable to the Image.A330neo aircraft, including the fact that the Trent 7000 required a completely new gearbox (the engine’s accessory gearbox may be fitted with an Integrated Drive Generator (IDG) and two Hydraulic Pumps to provide electrical and hydraulic power to the aircraft) but also an air, not electric, starter mechanism.

Also, the Image.Trent 7000's HP turbine blade is slightly different from that on the Trent 1000 TEN engine, and disparities also exist between the two engines' IP compressor blades.

A new EEC, providing the communication between the airframe and the engine was also developed.

Engine Bleed Air System (EBAS) for the Trent 7000 engine models Trent 7000-72 and Trent 7000-72C supply compressor air to the airframe, comprising both the Environmental Control System (ECS) for the cabin ventilation ( 'Cabin Bleed' ) and bleed air for the purpose of anti-icing of the airframe components ( 'Nacelle Anti-Ice Bleed' ). It is fed either from IP-compressor stage 8 (IP8) or from HP-compressor stage 6 (HP6).

Since the bleed air is used, instead of electrical power generation as in the Boeing 787 aircraft's Trent 1000 engine, the IP accessory drive is less loaded and enables the high-pressure compressor to maintain stability at low power settings, improving low-speed fuel consumption for short-haul operations.

lightsaber wrote:

… The reason the T7000 is mentioned is that with a new nacelle, it would be much more compatible…



Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engine was mentioned on this forum many times, by many members. Do You think that every time it was mentioned it was because of the reason You have just mentioned here? I don't…

lightsaber wrote:

… But the A380NEO is dead…



I'd rather say that the Airbus A380neo aircraft has never really been born.

Thank You, lightsaber.

Mario
"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile" - Albert Einstein
 
italie
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:18 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:36 pm

yeogeo wrote:
italie wrote:
I'm not a big fan of Airbus in general, but I am sad to see the A380 go. It was a pretty bird. I used to enjoy watching BA297 fly into ORD until they changed it to a 777.


It'll be back to A380 next summer.


Whoohoo!

There is a park 1/2 mile from 10C @ ORD . Kids would love to go there and play while waiting for it to fly over. Made for some good summer evenings.
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:04 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1QL0YR

Interesting story to follow over the next few years. Airbus owes Germany about $700 million. In total the deal maxed out at $7.3 billion and was then revised downward $1.4 billion to try and save the program in 2018.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1QL0YR

So if they owe Germany that amount it seems reasonable they owe France and the UK similar sums so around $2 billion.

So, setting aside the funny math of how we get from $7.3 billion down to $2 billion or so by delivering 12 airplanes, Airbus made plenty of money last year so this should simply be paid back to the various governments. If this financing is truly on commercial terms seeing as Airbus is very much a viable profit making entitity it should just pay the loans back right?

Moreover someone may want to look into how the balance seems to have dropped so much over the life of the program in general and the last 12 months in particular. Unless Germany funded far less than others that number seems really low.
 
osiris30
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:15 pm

bigjku wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-germany/german-government-in-talks-with-airbus-about-600-million-euros-in-a380-loans-idUSKCN1QL0YR

Interesting story to follow over the next few years. Airbus owes Germany about $700 million. In total the deal maxed out at $7.3 billion and was then revised downward $1.4 billion to try and save the program in 2018.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1QL0YR

So if they owe Germany that amount it seems reasonable they owe France and the UK similar sums so around $2 billion.

So, setting aside the funny math of how we get from $7.3 billion down to $2 billion or so by delivering 12 airplanes, Airbus made plenty of money last year so this should simply be paid back to the various governments. If this financing is truly on commercial terms seeing as Airbus is very much a viable profit making entitity it should just pay the loans back right?

Moreover someone may want to look into how the balance seems to have dropped so much over the life of the program in general and the last 12 months in particular. Unless Germany funded far less than others that number seems really low.


Germany had to have been one of the bigger RLI partners. According to this article 530m pounds came from the UK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... 80-produc/

Additional reading suggests that Airbus was already on the hook with or without cancellation of the program after the last WTO ruling:

https://www.efe.com/efe/english/busines ... 65-3623578
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Mar 04, 2019 4:43 pm

osiris30 wrote:
bigjku wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-germany/german-government-in-talks-with-airbus-about-600-million-euros-in-a380-loans-idUSKCN1QL0YR

Interesting story to follow over the next few years. Airbus owes Germany about $700 million. In total the deal maxed out at $7.3 billion and was then revised downward $1.4 billion to try and save the program in 2018.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1QL0YR

So if they owe Germany that amount it seems reasonable they owe France and the UK similar sums so around $2 billion.

So, setting aside the funny math of how we get from $7.3 billion down to $2 billion or so by delivering 12 airplanes, Airbus made plenty of money last year so this should simply be paid back to the various governments. If this financing is truly on commercial terms seeing as Airbus is very much a viable profit making entitity it should just pay the loans back right?

Moreover someone may want to look into how the balance seems to have dropped so much over the life of the program in general and the last 12 months in particular. Unless Germany funded far less than others that number seems really low.


Germany had to have been one of the bigger RLI partners. According to this article 530m pounds came from the UK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... 80-produc/

Additional reading suggests that Airbus was already on the hook with or without cancellation of the program after the last WTO ruling:

https://www.efe.com/efe/english/busines ... 65-3623578


Seems like more secret deals because of “commercial sensitivity” which is a load of horse dung. There is a financing mechanism that is 100% transparent on its terms in the corporate bond market where Airbus has already gotten funds. You get X and agree to pay back X plus interest over a term. The idea that all these deals need to be secret or that Airbus can’t borrow money on commercial terms is frankly laughable.
 
bigjku
Posts: 1906
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:51 pm

bigjku wrote:
osiris30 wrote:
bigjku wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-germany/german-government-in-talks-with-airbus-about-600-million-euros-in-a380-loans-idUSKCN1QL0YR

Interesting story to follow over the next few years. Airbus owes Germany about $700 million. In total the deal maxed out at $7.3 billion and was then revised downward $1.4 billion to try and save the program in 2018.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1QL0YR

So if they owe Germany that amount it seems reasonable they owe France and the UK similar sums so around $2 billion.

So, setting aside the funny math of how we get from $7.3 billion down to $2 billion or so by delivering 12 airplanes, Airbus made plenty of money last year so this should simply be paid back to the various governments. If this financing is truly on commercial terms seeing as Airbus is very much a viable profit making entitity it should just pay the loans back right?

Moreover someone may want to look into how the balance seems to have dropped so much over the life of the program in general and the last 12 months in particular. Unless Germany funded far less than others that number seems really low.


Germany had to have been one of the bigger RLI partners. According to this article 530m pounds came from the UK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... 80-produc/

Additional reading suggests that Airbus was already on the hook with or without cancellation of the program after the last WTO ruling:

https://www.efe.com/efe/english/busines ... 65-3623578


Seems like more secret deals because of “commercial sensitivity” which is a load of horse dung. There is a financing mechanism that is 100% transparent on its terms in the corporate bond market where Airbus has already gotten funds. You get X and agree to pay back X plus interest over a term. The idea that all these deals need to be secret or that Airbus can’t borrow money on commercial terms is frankly laughable.


So had Germany invested its $942 million into 10-year treasury they would have made $376 million in the 2002-2012 period. Instead after 18 years it sounds like they have gotten $262 million back. Or roughly a million per plane.

Setting aside the loss of $680 million the rate of return projected seems interesting. Airbus wanted to build IIRC 44 a year or so. We didn’t deliver anything for 7 years. So over 20 years let’s say the goal would have been to deliver 575 planes or so.

So at that number and the rate of reduction we would have paid the Germans $640 million by my math based on what they got paid. Now it starts to make sense why Airbus used the 751 number for internal ROI targets. But interestingly that still only brings the Germans to getting $836 million and at the most optimistic projections they are still owed roughly $100 million after something close to 25 years. Also we have paid no interest or profit to Germany (or far less principal depending on how we account for this).

So we can look to go for 30 years where we now have to deliver 1,012 planes and we now deliver a positive ROI to the Germans at the rate we have paid them. But we are about $750 million short of paying 4% per year. We paid a return of roughly 1.2% a year. If we delivered 1,000 airplanes over the course of 30 years. We get to make roughly $172 million, or $5.6 million a year.

No wonder they want to keep these terms secret for commercial reasons. No one will borrow anywhere else if you can get a project specific fully forgiveable loan at 1.2% interest rates.

Again there is a fair amount of piecing together here, but the notion that RLI is anything approaching commercial terms is absolute nonsense. Airbus makes real money. Them going back to taxpayers for funding and then asking for a break when they screw up is a joke. Take out a bond, pay the deals back and stop doing it in the future.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos