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cougar15
Posts: 1416
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:15 am

bennett123 wrote:
My understanding is that the ATC recording indicates that more than one person was in the cockpit as this unfolded.

Unless we consider that there was some conspiracy between them, (which is straight out of Hollywood) then deliberate pilot action is ruled out.

Pilot suicide/murder was a possibility which has been considered here and ruled out.

I would expect that NTSB have now also ruled it out.


Indeed, these aircraft have no secure cockpit door, it is in fact a curtain separating cockpit from galley, toilet and supernumerary seats. So no locked out pilot as per Germanwings for example. Given this setup (which many may not be aware of) and unless 2 of the recovered bodies have been shot (which I am sure we would have heard by now), I think the ongoing pilot suicide discussion is getting a little tiering to read! Appreciate the circumstances of this crash leave all of us baffled and searching for answers, but a little more respect for these fellow airmen may not go astray...…!
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
Redwood839
Posts: 221
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:26 pm

ctrabs0114 wrote:
Redwood839 wrote:
You see to know a bit of the process so I'll chime in.

Little. An FC employee won't know it's heading to the plane at all, they don't know how it's being transported. After it's been packed it moves down the conveyor and at the end it's when it get's it's label, even then, it still doesn't say how it's being transported to any employee who sees it as in transit to the dock. The label would say the sort center it would go through and the destination center. I.E - LAS6 (Vegas), ONT (Ontario). Can a manager see it, sure, someone in logistics too. Access is severely restricted.

Switching of items is known, yes. But it would have to be something within a very low spec to be able to move through. The tolerance is VERY low for package weight if the scales are calibrated.

In regards to FBA items being transported, yes, it can happen. They can easily be relabelled to be Amazon stock by accident.

I will say, it's a bit far stretched to think that a warehouse employee would cause something like this because of their "caliber". It's completely possible, I'm not saying it's not, it's just a bit too far. There's so many things that would have to be done for this to happen, but whatever Prime Air has in place.

FYI - ex Operations Manager FC (6 years). Was there before Air and after it came along.


The labels have since been updated so now, they show the source and destination(s). The FC employees who work the docks (a small percentage of the entire FC staff) would have an idea as to whether a package is being transported by ground or air if only to properly assign it to the right pallet and avoid mis-sorting the item and sending it to the wrong destination.


I know they've been updated, but it still doesn't show how it's being transported, and honestly 90% of the people that work there won't even care for what sort hub MIA would be or even bothered to think about what it stands for.
 
Western727
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:27 pm

SCFirefighter wrote:
ilovelamp wrote:
SCFirefighter wrote:
Judging by some of the responses on here about weather not being a big deal, I beg the differ. Here is everything laid out. I put this together using Level 2 dual-pol data which is the highest resolution radar data available. The images are valid at 18:38:25Z and is the .5 degree base reflectivity and Spectrum Width from the Houston KHGX that was downloaded from the NOAA archive and opened in Gibson Ridge's GR2 Analyst.

It clearly shows the cold front (black arrows) draped SW to NE across the Houston area and its movement to the SE at around 10-12kts. Before the cold front passed over the area, surface observations show that Ellington Airport (KEFD) and Scholes International in Galveston (KGLS) both had winds varying from 200/210 varying between 12 and 15kts. As the front passed over IAH, EFD, and finally GLS, winds immediately shifted to 310 at 10-15kts with IAH Gusting to 24kts at 18:02Z along with a temperature drop of around 10 degrees from around 77 to 67/68.

At the time Atlas began to show signs of trouble it was positioned directly on top of this front. NWS Mesoanalysis Data shows that the entire area had at least 60kts of bulk windshear at the time of incident along and just ahead of the cold front. (Graphic Included)

Continuing along, the observed 18Z Sounding from Lake Charles, LA had a wind profile that I will lay out below.
10,000ft - [email protected]
9,000ft - [email protected]
8,000ft - [email protected]
7,000ft - [email protected]
6,000ft - [email protected]
5,000ft - [email protected]
4,000ft - [email protected]
3,000ft - [email protected]
2,000ft - [email protected]
1,000ft - [email protected]
Surface - [email protected]

Finally I have enclosed another dual-pol radar product called Spectrum Width. Spectrum Width depicts a measure of velocity dispersion. In a radar bin, it provides a measure of the variability of the mean radial velocity estimates (movement) due to wind shear, turbulence, and/or the quality of the velocity samples. The proper use of Spectrum Width can help the severe thunderstorm and tornado warning decision process. It is used to estimate turbulence associated with low-level boundaries, thunderstorms, mesocyclones in supercells, and mesovortices in quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs)

Low values = smooth flow
High Values = depict variability in movement, turbulence, and chaotic flow.

The SW values along the cold front at 18:38Z in the exact location of Atlas 3591 show pretty high values that would be consistent with moderate to severe turbulence and a disrupted, chaotic air steam.

I am usually not the speculative type, but after looking at and analyzing the weather data, I feel very confident weather played a part in this terrible accident. Only time will tell as the NTSB works the investigation. Hope this information is helpful to any and all.

My thoughts and prayers are with the families of the flight crew. Godspeed.

Image
Image
Image


This Atlas flight was not the first nor the last flight to fly through this area. If you’re suggesting they encountered up to severe turbulence or a squall line, it would have been reported. That’s particularly true if it were pax jets encountering the severe conditions. Most pax jet pilots are hypersensitive to any turbulence above the light designation.

Max turbulence speed in a 767 is around 280-290KIAS. At 7000’ they would have been at 240-250KIAS or slower if directed by ATC before something went wrong. Structurally speaking there was no danger if or when the severe bumps started.

Lastly, these storms were not nefarious. There was no squall line just a max reported precip level of “heavy” as reported by ATC. The max is “extreme.”

I’m still of the belief these storms were far enough away to not have played a major role. Just because their last recorded task was a weather deviation doesn’t mean that’s the main cause.

Regardless, you’ve provided a good breakdown of the weather. However, this is the type of weather aircraft fly through and around every day all over the world without incident.


ILL


Thanks for the kinds words about the breakdown! I really appreciate that. I would just like to clarify I wasn't trying to specifically say it was "storms" that caused this incident. The only correlation I was attempting to make was the aircraft issue happening at the same time, in the same location as some turbulent air along the leading edge of the cold front.

I think it's also important to say that atmospheric kinematics on Saturday were pretty intense. While no single number or value exceeds the capabilities of any modern airliner, I do think weather played a part in the accident, but I am not saying it was the contributing cause of the accident. I am really curious about the horizontal stabilizer as I am sure everyone is. I am just wondering if there may have been a preexisting, unknown issue that some mod/sev turbulence contributed to it completely failing. It's all speculation at this point and my thoughts are no different.

Like I said before thanks for the props, it took me about an hour and a half to bring all the data together. If anyone ever needs anything weather related, shoot me a message. Cheers!


Thank you, SCFirefighter, for a very insightful analysis of the wx. Being a GA pilot I did a 3-segment local flight in the AUS area at the time of the crash in a Piper PA-28-180 and the winds were wicked where I flew, roughly 125 miles WNW of IAH, with a large spread of wind (winds from 290 at 17 kt with gusts to 27 kt if memory serves); on one of the three landings I was just a single knot below the max x-wind component of the aircraft. After concluding what I thought was a great exercise of x-wind landing techniques, I learned about the crash, which happened at around the time I did my 2nd landing at T82 (Fredericksburg, TX).

I'm with you and ilovelamp in speculating that the excellently-described and illustrated squall did not contribute to the crash, because as ILL pointed out other aircraft operated in the vicinity without trouble. I agree as well that the wx may have indeed played a role, though.
Jack @ AUS
 
EK77WNH
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:27 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
My understanding is that the ATC recording indicates that more than one person was in the cockpit as this unfolded.

Unless we consider that there was some conspiracy between them, (which is straight out of Hollywood) then deliberate pilot action is ruled out.

Pilot suicide/murder was a possibility which has been considered here and ruled out.

I would expect that NTSB have now also ruled it out.


No, it most certainly has not been ruled out. Nothing has been ruled out.


Exactly. Weeks and months will go by before anything is definitively ruled out.
Next Trip:
JAL 7-8 BOS-NRT-BOS, 787-9
September
 
Indy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:33 pm

It is sad that some will get offended over a possible cause of a crash and act if they are possibly insulted. Causes get dismissed as being highly unlikely over other possibilities. First off.... your feelings don't matter in an investigation. The FBI conducts a criminal investigation along side the NTSB to rule out the possibility of foul play. Should they care that you or anyone else might get offended at the possibility that criminal activity caused the crash? No. They shouldn't. Nor should anyone else. Let's step down off of hour high horse and use a little common sense. How many criminal acts in the cockpit (just because of the pilots of a crew member/jump seat) have brought down a plane versus any other single cause? You know what? A criminal act in the cockpit is more likely the cause of a crash than a pitot tube bringing down a flight at cruising altitude. Also more likely than fuel contamination bringing down a flight at the end of the runway. More likely than the roof of a plane getting ripped off mid flight. All of those other causes are far less likely than a criminal act. Doesn't mean that a criminal act caused this. It is just ignorant and arrogant to be dismissive of that possibility because you get your feelings hurt or want to defend a legacy. What about that good man (and I mean that seriously) that had a mental break, stole a commercial plane, took it for a joyride and killed himself. Most ridiculous scenario ever but it happened. People have mental breaks that cause them to do things no sane person would ever do. Sorry but criminal acts are every bit as likely (or more) to cause a crash than any other single cause.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:33 pm

The Aeromexico E190 crash in Durango last summer had an unqualified jumpseater flying the airplane in the right seat up until 8 seconds before impact.

While I’m not suggesting anything of the sort in this accident, it’s a reminder that strange things out of the ordinary can be a contributing factor. Even an oddball theory isn’t necessarily a bad one. I think people would have been chastised and burned if they had suggested early on that an unqualified person was flying the Aeromexico airplane.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
buzzard302
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:42 pm

Since everyone is guessing at this point, I will throw mine in. Sudden vertical windshear in which they couldn't recover. Everyone says the weather "wasn't that bad", but there could have been an isolated and sudden intense windshear. It would explain why there was no distress call. Although I still can't get my head around why the previous radio calls sounded short and stressed.
 
glideslope900
Posts: 128
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:01 pm

buzzard302 wrote:
Since everyone is guessing at this point, I will throw mine in. Sudden vertical windshear in which they couldn't recover. Everyone says the weather "wasn't that bad", but there could have been an isolated and sudden intense windshear. It would explain why there was no distress call. Although I still can't get my head around why the previous radio calls sounded short and stressed.


Highly unlikely and would be unprecendeted. As mentioned multiple times, the airplane had altitude and energy to recover from such an event, and multiple airplanes flew through the same area before and after Giant...

The previous crashes related to windshear microburst happened low to the ground on approach...most likely in a landing configuration.
 
bennett123
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:04 pm

Turn it the other way round.

The ATC recording indicates at least two pilots in the cockpit.

The pilot suicide alternative requires the other pilot to sit watching the ground coming at him without saying a word or making any audible attempt to save the situation.

Really don’t sound plausible. Regardless of not making any formal announcements, I am sure this is equally obvious to the NTSB.
 
glideslope900
Posts: 128
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:07 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Turn it the other way round.

The ATC recording indicates at least two pilots in the cockpit.

The pilot suicide alternative requires the other pilot to sit watching the ground coming at him without saying a word or making any audible attempt to save the situation.

Really don’t sound plausible. Regardless of not making any formal announcements, I am sure this is equally obvious to the NTSB.


How do you know the other pilot didn’t say a word? Have you heard the CVR?
 
bennett123
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:12 pm

Surely it would have been picked up by the ATC recording.
 
glideslope900
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:15 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Surely it would have been picked up by the ATC recording.


The ATC recording was what? A second long? I would not make that conclusion.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 254
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:17 pm

bennett123 wrote:
My understanding is that the ATC recording indicates that more than one person was in the cockpit as this unfolded.

Unless we consider that there was some conspiracy between them, (which is straight out of Hollywood) then deliberate pilot action is ruled out.

Pilot suicide/murder was a possibility which has been considered here and ruled out.

I would expect that NTSB have now also ruled it out.


LOL dismissed and ruled out without boxes recovered and analyzed?
NTSB didn't even start yet, all they are doing is collecting perishable evidence thou I'm pretty sure FBI is already heavy into background checks at this point.


Indy wrote:
It is sad that some will get offended over a possible cause of a crash and act if they are possibly insulted. Causes get dismissed as being highly unlikely over other possibilities. First off.... your feelings don't matter in an investigation. The FBI conducts a criminal investigation along side the NTSB to rule out the possibility of foul play. Should they care that you or anyone else might get offended at the possibility that criminal activity caused the crash? No. They shouldn't. Nor should anyone else. Let's step down off of hour high horse and use a little common sense. How many criminal acts in the cockpit (just because of the pilots of a crew member/jump seat) have brought down a plane versus any other single cause? You know what? A criminal act in the cockpit is more likely the cause of a crash than a pitot tube bringing down a flight at cruising altitude. Also more likely than fuel contamination bringing down a flight at the end of the runway. More likely than the roof of a plane getting ripped off mid flight. All of those other causes are far less likely than a criminal act. Doesn't mean that a criminal act caused this. It is just ignorant and arrogant to be dismissive of that possibility because you get your feelings hurt or want to defend a legacy. What about that good man (and I mean that seriously) that had a mental break, stole a commercial plane, took it for a joyride and killed himself. Most ridiculous scenario ever but it happened. People have mental breaks that cause them to do things no sane person would ever do. Sorry but criminal acts are every bit as likely (or more) to cause a crash than any other single cause.


Exactly, yet here we are where several of my completely rational and non insulting posts have been deleted cause somebody is butthurt.
What a society we live in.
 
blockski
Posts: 546
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:26 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Turn it the other way round.

The ATC recording indicates at least two pilots in the cockpit.

The pilot suicide alternative requires the other pilot to sit watching the ground coming at him without saying a word or making any audible attempt to save the situation.

Really don’t sound plausible. Regardless of not making any formal announcements, I am sure this is equally obvious to the NTSB.


That's not how the NTSB conducts their work. They will gather the evidence and follow that evidence wherever it leads.

I am certain they've not ruled anything out at this stage of the investigation. Primarily because there's no need to rule anything in or out at this stage. Once they find the black boxes, they'll know a lot more.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:43 pm

One was a former coworker of mine and respected. Very tiring to read some of these comments.


Agreed. You've also been exceptionally diplomatic under the circumstances.

Bob
 
IADCA
Posts: 1864
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:56 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Surely it would have been picked up by the ATC recording.


Aside from the fact that there is a famous example of a 767-300 that crashed as a result of one pilot's deliberate control inputs with someone fighting back on the other side and no communication with ATC, fabulous analysis. :roll:

That said, while pilot suicide is a theoretical possibility, it's an extremely unlikely one in the absence of any evidence that recommends it over other theories. I'm not willing to go out and accuse people of murder based on the perilously thin veneer of known facts here relative to all the potentially available data and possibilities. It can't be definitively ruled out, but the vast majority of airplane accidents are just that - accidents.
 
estorilm
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:57 pm

Pulled the forecast discussion from the nearest NWS office (at the destination airport) - their latest update before the crash WAS actually aviation. I still just don't see anything unusual about this storm at all, looks like a typical late-winter weak fropa.

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1151 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019



.AVIATION...
Prefrontal trough near a JAS-HOU-LBX line with the cold front
quickly catching up to it. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms still possible along and south of it as it
overtakes the front. Winds turn to the NW and gusty for an hour or
so then should start to back to the WNW-W this afternoon as the
big wound up surface low over Oklahoma lifts ENE. MVFR-IFR
ceilings along and south of the boundary with fog still along the
immediate coast and out over the Gulf. Very abrupt improvement to
VFR in the wake of the front with mainly cirrus this afternoon.
Winds relaxing this evening and westerly then increase as second
push of cold air comes through the area between 07-10z gradually
swinging around to the NNE late Sunday morning.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 410
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:10 pm

buzzard302 wrote:
Since everyone is guessing at this point, I will throw mine in. Sudden vertical windshear in which they couldn't recover. Everyone says the weather "wasn't that bad", but there could have been an isolated and sudden intense windshear. It would explain why there was no distress call. Although I still can't get my head around why the previous radio calls sounded short and stressed.

I have to agree... The collapsing thunderstorm front could easily have produced a downdraft. The questions is, could it have been strong enough to overwhelm a low and slow 767? The crew was concerned about the conditions they saw in front of them.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 3664
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:12 pm

Here is an excerpt from a proposed FAA AD on the 767:

On August 18, 2000, we issued AD 2000-17-05, Amendment 39-11879 (65 FR 51754, August 25, 2000), for certain The Boeing Company Model 767-200, -300, and -300F series airplanes. That AD requires a one-time functional check of the shear rivets in all six PCA bellcrank assemblies to determine the condition of the shear rivets; and replacement or rework of the bellcrank assemblies, if necessary. That AD resulted from reports that elevator bellcrank assemblies with failed shear rivets had been found on three Model 767 airplanes. We issued that AD to detect and correct any failed or partially yielded shear rivets of the elevator PCA bellcrank assemblies. Failure of two bellcrank assemblies on one side can result in that single elevator surface moving to a hardover position, independent of pilot command, resulting in a significant pitch upset recoverable by the crew. Failure of three bellcrank assemblies on one side could result in loss of control of the airplane.


https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2013/02/26/2013-04338/airworthiness-directives-the-boeing-company-airplanes

GF
 
ILNFlyer
Posts: 386
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:34 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:14 pm

None of us can be certain about anything at this point, other than the obvious fact that the aircraft went down for unknown reasons and 3 people are dead as a result. Families are in pain today. Aviation professionals and a whole bunch of corporate people are in mourning over this event. Let's wait and see whats the facts show.
 
Antarius
Posts: 1701
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:18 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
buzzard302 wrote:
Since everyone is guessing at this point, I will throw mine in. Sudden vertical windshear in which they couldn't recover. Everyone says the weather "wasn't that bad", but there could have been an isolated and sudden intense windshear. It would explain why there was no distress call. Although I still can't get my head around why the previous radio calls sounded short and stressed.

I have to agree... The collapsing thunderstorm front could easily have produced a downdraft. The questions is, could it have been strong enough to overwhelm a low and slow 767? The crew was concerned about the conditions they saw in front of them.


The aircraft was at 7000 feet. It wasnt that low. It seems rather unlikely at that altitude.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
Whiplash6
Posts: 130
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 2:30 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:20 pm

Antarius wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
buzzard302 wrote:
Since everyone is guessing at this point, I will throw mine in. Sudden vertical windshear in which they couldn't recover. Everyone says the weather "wasn't that bad", but there could have been an isolated and sudden intense windshear. It would explain why there was no distress call. Although I still can't get my head around why the previous radio calls sounded short and stressed.

I have to agree... The collapsing thunderstorm front could easily have produced a downdraft. The questions is, could it have been strong enough to overwhelm a low and slow 767? The crew was concerned about the conditions they saw in front of them.


The aircraft was at 7000 feet. It wasnt that low. It seems rather unlikely at that altitude.


It was also cleared to descend and maintain 3,000 feet.
 
Antarius
Posts: 1701
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:25 pm

Whiplash6 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
I have to agree... The collapsing thunderstorm front could easily have produced a downdraft. The questions is, could it have been strong enough to overwhelm a low and slow 767? The crew was concerned about the conditions they saw in front of them.


The aircraft was at 7000 feet. It wasnt that low. It seems rather unlikely at that altitude.


It was also cleared to descend and maintain 3,000 feet.


From the fr24 data the rapid descent started when the aircraft was well over 3000 feet. Is that incorrect?
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
Whiplash6
Posts: 130
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 2:30 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:25 pm

“Knowledge of windshear effects on aircraft performance can be essential to the
successful application of the proper vertical flight path control techniques in
windshear. Horizontal windshear may improve or degrade vertical flight path
performance. Windshear that improves performance is first indicated by
increasing airspeed and may be a precursor of a shear that decreases airspeed and
degrades vertical performance. Airspeed decreases if the tailwind increases, or
headwind decreases, faster than the aircraft is accelerating. As airspeed decreases,
the aircraft normally tends to pitch down to maintain or regain the in-trim speed.
The magnitude of pitch change is a function of the encountered airspeed change.
If the nose is lowered in an attempt to regain lost airspeed, the combination of
decreasing airspeed and decreasing pitch produces a high rate of descent. Unless
this is countered, a critical flight path control situation may rapidly develop. As
little as five seconds may be available to recognize and react to a degrading
vertical flight path. In critical low altitude situations, trade airspeed for altitude, if possible.”
 
goboeing
Posts: 2561
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 5:31 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:25 pm

SCFirefighter wrote:

Continuing along, the observed 18Z Sounding from Lake Charles, LA had a wind profile that I will lay out below.
10,000ft - [email protected]
9,000ft - [email protected]
8,000ft - [email protected]
7,000ft - [email protected]
6,000ft - [email protected]
5,000ft - [email protected]
4,000ft - [email protected]
3,000ft - [email protected]
2,000ft - [email protected]
1,000ft - [email protected]
Surface - [email protected]

The SW values along the cold front at 18:38Z in the exact location of Atlas 3591 show pretty high values that would be consistent with moderate to severe turbulence and a disrupted, chaotic air steam.


Although I appreciated your overall post, I'm not quite sure what you're getting at here with the winds aloft breakdown.

These are very tame winds all the way down from 10,000 to the surface.
 
Whiplash6
Posts: 130
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2017 2:30 am

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:33 pm

goboeing wrote:
SCFirefighter wrote:

Continuing along, the observed 18Z Sounding from Lake Charles, LA had a wind profile that I will lay out below.
10,000ft - [email protected]
9,000ft - [email protected]
8,000ft - [email protected]
7,000ft - [email protected]
6,000ft - [email protected]
5,000ft - [email protected]
4,000ft - [email protected]
3,000ft - [email protected]
2,000ft - [email protected]
1,000ft - [email protected]
Surface - [email protected]

The SW values along the cold front at 18:38Z in the exact location of Atlas 3591 show pretty high values that would be consistent with moderate to severe turbulence and a disrupted, chaotic air steam.


Although I appreciated your overall post, I'm not quite sure what you're getting at here with the winds aloft breakdown.

These are very tame winds all the way down from 10,000 to the surface.


I think the paragraph that he posted below the winds is more important than the tame winds at 10,000.
 
KICT
Posts: 815
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:54 pm

Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:36 pm

ILNFlyer wrote:
None of us can be certain about anything at this point, other than the obvious fact that the aircraft went down for unknown reasons and 3 people are dead as a result. Families are in pain today. Aviation professionals and a whole bunch of corporate people are in mourning over this event. Let's wait and see whats the facts show.

Great idea. Let's lock down all of the threads related to this incident until the NTSB issues their report one year from now...

Give me a break. This is a discussion forum and we're going to discuss the incident. If you don't want to discuss it then don't read it.

Can someone furthermore explain to me the logic of "this can't be pilot suicide because it's the wrong phase of flight" mentality? Pilot suicide is almost certainly being looked at given the recent history of these types of incidents, e.g. MH370, Germanwings, the E190 in Africa...

You can bet your next paycheck that the FBI will be investigating this line of inquiry.
Last edited by KICT on Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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na
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:37 pm

I have always wondered in recent years, why "suddenly" so many old and even some very old (20 y +) 767s were converted to freighters. Airplanes which had reached the age at which most planes are being scrapped. The Amazon freighter which sadly has crashed now is among them.
 
Antarius
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:41 pm

na wrote:
I have always wondered in recent years, why "suddenly" so many old and even some very old (20 y +) 767s were converted to freighters. Airplanes which had reached the age at which most planes are being scrapped. The Amazon freighter which sadly has crashed now is among them.


Because End of Life as a passenger aircraft does not mean EOL as cargo; cargo aircraft tend to fly far less cycles than their pax equivalents. Which means that as airlines were retiring their 767s, they became available for cheap for P2F conversions. The 767 is still being manufactured as a freighter, which means parts etc are available easily and the P2F means your capital cost is very low.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN MHT YYZ STS BIS DOH BLR KTM MFM MEX MSY BWI DEN
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:44 pm

na wrote:
I have always wondered in recent years, why "suddenly" so many old and even some very old (20 y +) 767s were converted to freighters. Airplanes which had reached the age at which most planes are being scrapped. The Amazon freighter which sadly has crashed now is among them.


Most planes are not scrapped at 20+ years. Several major carriers BA, DL, LH etc are flying aircraft that are well beyond 20.
 
estorilm
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:46 pm

na wrote:
I have always wondered in recent years, why "suddenly" so many old and even some very old (20 y +) 767s were converted to freighters. Airplanes which had reached the age at which most planes are being scrapped. The Amazon freighter which sadly has crashed now is among them.

The freighter conversion offers pretty good operating performance, even for an old plane. As others had mentioned, the reduced route cycles tend to somewhat negate the lack of efficiency compared to other freighters. For a customer like Amazon, the size is probably ideal as well - the cost is CERTAINLY ideal versus anything new they'd be able to get (which would likely be too large).

Passenger aircraft get scrapped since the margins are just painfully small, and there are plenty of alternatives or new models available offering significant cost savings which make it tempting.


GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Here is an excerpt from a proposed FAA AD on the 767:

On August 18, 2000, we issued AD 2000-17-05, Amendment 39-11879 (65 FR 51754, August 25, 2000), for certain The Boeing Company Model 767-200, -300, and -300F series airplanes. That AD requires a one-time functional check of the shear rivets in all six PCA bellcrank assemblies to determine the condition of the shear rivets; and replacement or rework of the bellcrank assemblies, if necessary. That AD resulted from reports that elevator bellcrank assemblies with failed shear rivets had been found on three Model 767 airplanes. We issued that AD to detect and correct any failed or partially yielded shear rivets of the elevator PCA bellcrank assemblies. Failure of two bellcrank assemblies on one side can result in that single elevator surface moving to a hardover position, independent of pilot command, resulting in a significant pitch upset recoverable by the crew. Failure of three bellcrank assemblies on one side could result in loss of control of the airplane.


https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2013/02/26/2013-04338/airworthiness-directives-the-boeing-company-airplanes

GF

That's actually a really good find. Usually 99.999% of these things have no way of resulting in what we see in a crash (in these types of threads anyways) but yikes, certainly something to keep in mind.

Missing it or non-compliance w/ AD would really surprise me, but who knows - technically LAN should have performed these checks or repairs initially, as Atlas only got her in 2016. :scratchchin:
Last edited by estorilm on Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:48 pm

KICT wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
None of us can be certain about anything at this point, other than the obvious fact that the aircraft went down for unknown reasons and 3 people are dead as a result. Families are in pain today. Aviation professionals and a whole bunch of corporate people are in mourning over this event. Let's wait and see whats the facts show.

Great idea. Let's lock down all of the threads related to this incident until the NTSB issues their report one year from now...

Give me a break. This is a discussion forum and we're going to discuss the incident. If you don't want to discuss it then don't read it.

Can someone furthermore explain to me the logic of "this can't be pilot suicide because it's the wrong phase of flight" mentality? Pilot suicide is almost certainly being looked at given the recent history of these types of incidents, e.g. MH370, Germanwings, the E190 in Africa...

You can bet your next paycheck that the FBI will be investigating this line of inquiry.


And will be found true or eliminated upon listening to the CVR. I’ll bet money eliminated especially as there were likely three pilots up front.

GF
 
KICT
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:48 pm

I was wondering when we'd arrive at the "wow, the was an old airplane" phase of this discussion...
People are saying. Believe me.
 
dakota123
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:56 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Here is an excerpt from a proposed FAA AD on the 767:

On August 18, 2000, we issued AD 2000-17-05, Amendment 39-11879 (65 FR 51754, August 25, 2000), for certain The Boeing Company Model 767-200, -300, and -300F series airplanes. That AD requires a one-time functional check of the shear rivets in all six PCA bellcrank assemblies to determine the condition of the shear rivets; and replacement or rework of the bellcrank assemblies, if necessary. That AD resulted from reports that elevator bellcrank assemblies with failed shear rivets had been found on three Model 767 airplanes. We issued that AD to detect and correct any failed or partially yielded shear rivets of the elevator PCA bellcrank assemblies. Failure of two bellcrank assemblies on one side can result in that single elevator surface moving to a hardover position, independent of pilot command, resulting in a significant pitch upset recoverable by the crew. Failure of three bellcrank assemblies on one side could result in loss of control of the airplane.


https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2013/02/26/2013-04338/airworthiness-directives-the-boeing-company-airplanes

GF


Oh boy. Sure fits the facts known to this point. Edit: actually, a few of the referenced service bulletins and ADs.
Last edited by dakota123 on Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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estorilm
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:04 pm

KICT wrote:
I was wondering when we'd arrive at the "wow, the was an old airplane" phase of this discussion...

Not really, her history and age were first posted on page 2 or 3 of this thread. :roll:
 
jtamu97
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:05 pm

Listening to the ATC recording, I still find it interesting that different pilots answered in such a short amount of time. Furthermore, the second pilot (voice) steps on the controller while the controller is explaining the deviation. I'm sure this will be a focal point as both voices sounded very stressed so it really does seem like they were working during these transmissions.
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bennett123
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:10 pm

If the AD was not complied with, would be picked up by the next D Check or during the Cargo Conversion.
 
na
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:10 pm

7BOEING7 wrote:
na wrote:
I have always wondered in recent years, why "suddenly" so many old and even some very old (20 y +) 767s were converted to freighters. Airplanes which had reached the age at which most planes are being scrapped. The Amazon freighter which sadly has crashed now is among them.


Most planes are not scrapped at 20+ years. Several major carriers BA, DL, LH etc are flying aircraft that are well beyond 20.


Most airliners serve between 20 and 25 years, especially longhaul planes. Only about 1/3rd fly longer than 25 calendar years. The trend is towards shorter service lifes.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:34 pm

It was proposed, I couldn’t find the final AD, if there was one.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:34 pm

Indy wrote:
It is sad that some will get offended over a possible cause of a crash and act if they are possibly insulted. Causes get dismissed as being highly unlikely over other possibilities. First off.... your feelings don't matter in an investigation. The FBI conducts a criminal investigation along side the NTSB to rule out the possibility of foul play. Should they care that you or anyone else might get offended at the possibility that criminal activity caused the crash? No. They shouldn't. Nor should anyone else. Let's step down off of hour high horse and use a little common sense. How many criminal acts in the cockpit (just because of the pilots of a crew member/jump seat) have brought down a plane versus any other single cause? You know what? A criminal act in the cockpit is more likely the cause of a crash than a pitot tube bringing down a flight at cruising altitude. Also more likely than fuel contamination bringing down a flight at the end of the runway. More likely than the roof of a plane getting ripped off mid flight. All of those other causes are far less likely than a criminal act. Doesn't mean that a criminal act caused this. It is just ignorant and arrogant to be dismissive of that possibility because you get your feelings hurt or want to defend a legacy. What about that good man (and I mean that seriously) that had a mental break, stole a commercial plane, took it for a joyride and killed himself. Most ridiculous scenario ever but it happened. People have mental breaks that cause them to do things no sane person would ever do. Sorry but criminal acts are every bit as likely (or more) to cause a crash than any other single cause.

No one is suggesting the NTSB (and FBI) shouldn’t be investigating every possible avenue, including an intentional act. What is being suggested is that throwing around theories willy nilly with zero evidence beyond “we can see the aircraft entered a dive and impacted the ground” is not going to really get anywhere other than idle speculation, and ends up in dozens of pages of inanity which buries any actual informed comment. When I first saw this thread, it was already 7 pages long, and it was only that I happened to have a good chunk of time that I bothered to read it.

If someone is positively suggesting this was a deliberate act by flight crew (hint: this is something not done by competent investigating agencies in the first weeks of an investigation unless there is clear evidence such as in the Horizon example you cite) as opposed to pointing out that at this stage nothing has been ruled out (hint: this is something that is done by competent investigating agencies in the first weeks of an investigation), then all they are doing is throwing around baseless accusations. Given this forum is read by 1) colleagues and friends of the deceased pilots and 2) journalists looking for a new angle, I would suggest baseless accusations are not as harmless as being made out. You wouldn’t be too happy if you became an in active poster for six months and I began suggesting one possible scenario is that you have been arrested for possessing illegal material on your computer (even though that theory would fit with the available evidence).

Unless you are investigating this accident yourself, I would humbly suggest it is you who needs to step down of your high horse, and allow the professional investigators to do their work. When there is a premimary factual report in a month’s time, then there will be something to discuss and make some informed speculation on. Pretty much everything before that is just noise.

V/F
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skyharborshome
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:44 pm

G500Captain wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
747Whale wrote:

Actually, it's exactly how it works. Aviate. Navigate. Communicate.

In that order.


So you can’t do more than one of those at the same time?

[Waiting to get my head ripped off from the expert]


Unfortuenately, not. As a corporate jet pilot, and having experienced my fair share of inflight emergencies and simulator experiences, the very first thought is to fix the airplane. From the early reports the plane was already low level (7000’ish) and in a severe nose low attitude. Calling ATC in those situations is very low on ones priority list.

PS I hope I didn’t rip your head off, I was really trying to be nice about it. To me, any question is a fair question.


G500 is absolutely correct. You practice in your head over and over what you will do when you are in an emergency. Then you are flying an approach you have done tons of times and something you think you are prepared for happens and chaos temporarily ensues. You are focused on saving your life and your passengers' lives and nothing else matters in that moment. Even if you do pause and communicate, you have no guarantee it is heard. A couple of years ago a guy I know made a mayday call and it went out very clear however due to distance or being stepped on, the tower never heard it. Heck, once during a tense situation I tried to radio what was happening and later realized I was holding down the autopilot disconnect button. Studies have shown over and over that pilots often do not react in what is considered a rational way during an emergency. Look at the number of times and engine quits in a small airplane and for some reason the reflex is to pull back when we all know you should push forward. I know it seems illogical and if you have never been in that situation it is hard to grasp what goes through your mind. That is why G500 is also correct in that this is a fair question.
Fly CHD!
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:52 pm

TripleDelta wrote:
Silver1SWA wrote:
I still hear “pull” and it sounds similar to the voice in that video.


As Whiplash stated, any GPWS callout - even a run-of-the-mill altitude readout - is loud. The whole point of them is that they can be heard clearly and unambiguously above the cockpit din, speech, wind nose, engine noise and so on. Even more so, the actual wording used, the tone and stress of the speaker, the rate of speech and volume are all intended to "get to the crew" in situations where they get too disoriented or focused/preoccupied with one thing to notice their proximity to terrain - which is why GPWS callouts in general sound so unnatural, forced and commanding.

For lack of a better comparison, the GPWS is a Marine drill instructor - and not a shy boy tugging at your jacket sleeve trying to get your attention. If it has something to say, trust me, you'll know it!


I understand that and I know what it sounds like. If that sound is there I’d imagine it would be much louder and more prominent on the CVR that records the entire cockpit area vs an ATC transmission coming from a microphone positioned close to the mouth, right?

Anyway like I said. I hear it. I’ve watched the videos posted above of the 767 sounds being tested and the BA accident and I still hear it. I don’t know if it’s really there. Someday we will (hopefully) find out if it is or if this is another yanny/laurel phenomenon (I heard both, heh).
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:00 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
Indy wrote:
It is sad that some will get offended over a possible cause of a crash and act if they are possibly insulted. Causes get dismissed as being highly unlikely over other possibilities. First off.... your feelings don't matter in an investigation. The FBI conducts a criminal investigation along side the NTSB to rule out the possibility of foul play. Should they care that you or anyone else might get offended at the possibility that criminal activity caused the crash? No. They shouldn't. Nor should anyone else. Let's step down off of hour high horse and use a little common sense. How many criminal acts in the cockpit (just because of the pilots of a crew member/jump seat) have brought down a plane versus any other single cause? You know what? A criminal act in the cockpit is more likely the cause of a crash than a pitot tube bringing down a flight at cruising altitude. Also more likely than fuel contamination bringing down a flight at the end of the runway. More likely than the roof of a plane getting ripped off mid flight. All of those other causes are far less likely than a criminal act. Doesn't mean that a criminal act caused this. It is just ignorant and arrogant to be dismissive of that possibility because you get your feelings hurt or want to defend a legacy. What about that good man (and I mean that seriously) that had a mental break, stole a commercial plane, took it for a joyride and killed himself. Most ridiculous scenario ever but it happened. People have mental breaks that cause them to do things no sane person would ever do. Sorry but criminal acts are every bit as likely (or more) to cause a crash than any other single cause.

No one is suggesting the NTSB (and FBI) shouldn’t be investigating every possible avenue, including an intentional act. What is being suggested is that throwing around theories willy nilly with zero evidence beyond “we can see the aircraft entered a dive and impacted the ground” is not going to really get anywhere other than idle speculation, and ends up in dozens of pages of inanity which buries any actual informed comment. When I first saw this thread, it was already 7 pages long, and it was only that I happened to have a good chunk of time that I bothered to read it.

If someone is positively suggesting this was a deliberate act by flight crew (hint: this is something not done by competent investigating agencies in the first weeks of an investigation unless there is clear evidence such as in the Horizon example you cite) as opposed to pointing out that at this stage nothing has been ruled out (hint: this is something that is done by competent investigating agencies in the first weeks of an investigation), then all they are doing is throwing around baseless accusations. Given this forum is read by 1) colleagues and friends of the deceased pilots and 2) journalists looking for a new angle, I would suggest baseless accusations are not as harmless as being made out. You wouldn’t be too happy if you became an in active poster for six months and I began suggesting one possible scenario is that you have been arrested for possessing illegal material on your computer (even though that theory would fit with the available evidence).

Unless you are investigating this accident yourself, I would humbly suggest it is you who needs to step down of your high horse, and allow the professional investigators to do their work. When there is a premimary factual report in a month’s time, then there will be something to discuss and make some informed speculation on. Pretty much everything before that is just noise.

V/F


With your example what you are implying is deliberate accusation of wrongdoing / criminal activity without factual data. You just figured since that person is inactive then your theory might be xxxxx. Deliberate spreading of bullshit pretty much.
Absolutely nothing to do with sudden dive that could have been caused by deliberate action which is not unheard of in events like this.
Everything else is in the same category of hypocritical discussion. Not a single word in this thread apart from weather and FR24 data is substantial, meaningful or factual in any way. All hypothesis with higher or lower probability.
So let me humbly suggest you to get down from that high horse and and allow people to discuss this event especially that NOBODY is insulting ANYBODY.
Censorship is the favorite tool of communism and I'm allergic to it.
 
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TripleDelta
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:16 pm

Silver1SWA wrote:
If that sound is there I’d imagine it would be much louder and more prominent on the CVR that records the entire cockpit area vs an ATC transmission coming from a microphone positioned close to the mouth, right?


You'd maybe be surprised at how easily and clearly GPWS callouts can be heard on the frequency. For example, the Q400s I fly are equipped with microphones tuned for use in high noise environments (the aircon on the 400 makes quite a racket); but, despite their attenuation, closeness of the mike head to the mouth and the general ambient noise of the flight deck, GPWS tirades can be heard almost - if not equally - as loud as the crew. Respond to ATC while passing through any altitude callout - say TWENTY FIVE HUNDRED on passing 2,500 ft AGL - and on the other side it'll sound like two people are talking at the same place at once.

Record it, and you wouldn't need to raise the volume, run it a half speed or listen to it dozens of times to work out that the GPWS was the one making the noise...
Hawkeye: "It doesn't make any sense."
Radar: "Well, none of it makes any sense. You just have to send in the right number of forms." - MASH 4077
 
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Moose135
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:25 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
No one is suggesting the NTSB (and FBI) shouldn’t be investigating every possible avenue, including an intentional act. What is being suggested is that throwing around theories willy nilly with zero evidence beyond “we can see the aircraft entered a dive and impacted the ground” is not going to really get anywhere other than idle speculation, and ends up in dozens of pages of inanity which buries any actual informed comment. When I first saw this thread, it was already 7 pages long, and it was only that I happened to have a good chunk of time that I bothered to read it.


This thread is 15 pages of mostly speculation and theories thrown around willy nilly. A.net is a discussion forum, that's what we do here. I've read the entire thing, and I don't see where anyone is pushing deliberate pilot actions as the most likely cause of this crash, only that is is one more thing that needs to be considered, given the circumstances. I'm a former military pilot, and I would hate to think that anyone I flew with would do something deliberate like this, but it can't be ruled out until it is ruled out. It has been said it is insulting to the memory of these pilots to even consider such a scenario - should it also be insulting to their memory to consider pilot error, either as a primary cause, or by an erroneous response to a malfunction? I'm sure there are people who work for Boeing, some of whom may have worked to design or build the 767 - is it an insult to them to consider a mechanical malfunction or design flaw led to the crash?

VirginFlyer wrote:
Unless you are investigating this accident yourself, I would humbly suggest it is you who needs to step down of your high horse, and allow the professional investigators to do their work. When there is a premimary factual report in a month’s time, then there will be something to discuss and make some informed speculation on. Pretty much everything before that is just noise.


So let's lock the thread until the NTSB report is issued.
KC-135 - Passing gas and taking names!
 
trnswrld
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:28 pm

^^^ correct info TripleDelta. I’m an enroute controller so it wasn’t uncommon to get a read back just as the altitude alert (thousand to go) tone was chiming and it was usually as loud or louder than the pilot speaking.

My opinion I have no idea what some of the people on here claim to have heard. On the live ATC tapes we hear very little and as someone who has been a controller now for 12 years based on those I hear nothing unusual. It’s not even uncommon to see if a pilot can deviate the other way from what they were requesting for reason just like the controller explained to the Atlas crew. I personally don’t hear anything on those Limited tapes that would raise my eyebrow, but obviously the NTSB investigators will be looking into all that and will decide for themselves.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:31 pm

na wrote:
I have always wondered in recent years, why "suddenly" so many old and even some very old (20 y +) 767s were converted to freighters. Airplanes which had reached the age at which most planes are being scrapped. The Amazon freighter which sadly has crashed now is among them.


The 767 is a durable workhorse. JAL and ANA have flown domestic examples to nearly 50k cycles without incident, far more than the frames now being converted. Delta has several still flying in intensive utilization that are over 130,000 airframe hours. There are still many, many potential causes of this accident but I feel confident that "the airframe was too old" is not among them.
 
KICT
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:50 pm

Not to be too nit-picky, but "GPWS" systems have largely been replaced by "EGPWS" systems on commercial aircraft. E for enhanced.
People are saying. Believe me.
 
DUSdude
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:56 pm

na wrote:
7BOEING7 wrote:
na wrote:
I have always wondered in recent years, why "suddenly" so many old and even some very old (20 y +) 767s were converted to freighters. Airplanes which had reached the age at which most planes are being scrapped. The Amazon freighter which sadly has crashed now is among them.


Most planes are not scrapped at 20+ years. Several major carriers BA, DL, LH etc are flying aircraft that are well beyond 20.


Most airliners serve between 20 and 25 years, especially longhaul planes. Only about 1/3rd fly longer than 25 calendar years. The trend is towards shorter service lifes.


That depends on a number of factors. Low cycle, long-haul aircraft with decent economics and which fill an existing need for an airline will happily fly for more than 25 years (see most of the current 767 fleet, BA's 747s, etc.). High cycle short haul planes may max out on cycles at 20 or earlier and may be scrapped notwithstanding the existence of a robust second hand market for the given type (see some early retired and heavily used A320s) simply because the airframe structure has reached a point where you'd need to basically rebuild the plane to keep it airworthy. Early retirement may also have to do with an owner/lessor calculating that the value of the aircraft as spare parts exceeds the value of the aircraft as an airworthy aircraft on the second hand market. There isn't a hard and fast rule. There's nothing wrong per se with a low cycle 767 living an active life at age 26 and beyond (ATI flies some 767-200 freighters that are even older). Keep in mind that most freighters (espeically those serving the overnight parcel shipping business) sit around for most of the day and typically do few cycles per day (which in the case of a Amazon Prime Air aircraft would have been relatively short, domestic medium haul flights). So, post-freighter conversion they are accumulating fewer hours and cycles than during their ealier life as passenger planes.
 
4holer
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Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:58 pm

Folks... There is a HUGE difference between an "accusation" and "suggesting a possibility".
There is also a difference between saying a pilot intentionally crashing "IS" the cause and "COULD BE" the cause.
At this moment, the list of things that "could be" the cause is huge, and includes "Dude on lawn chair suspended from helium balloons crashed through windshield, but my mentioning that is in no way me saying that it IS the cause. Or even probably is the cause. No accusations here.
There are folks who are understandably sensitive to the issue of one or other form of pilot blame, but I've not seen anyone speak in absolutes or flat out accusing the pilot of being the cause here.
Take a breath people. ...Or two.

May all who were lost RIP.
Ghosts appear and fade away.....................

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