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enilria
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OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:53 am

FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

7H ANC-SNP MAY 0.2>0.4[0] JUN 0.2>0.4[0] JUL 0.2>0.4[0] AUG 0.2>0.4[0] SEP 0.2>0.4[0] OCT 0.2>0.5[0] NOV 0.2>0.4[0] DEC 0.2>0.5[0]
7H BET-SNP MAY 0.2>0[0] JUN 0.2>0[0] JUL 0.2>0[0] AUG 0.2>0[0] SEP 0.2>0[0] OCT 0.2>0[0] NOV 0.2>0[0] DEC 0.2>0[0]

AA ABE-ORD JAN 2>1.2[0]
AA BOS-DFW OCT 7>8[6] NOV 7>8[6] DEC 7>8[6] JAN 7>8[5]
AA BOS-LAX OCT 6>5[6] NOV 6>5[5]
AA BOS-ORD JAN 9>8[6]
AA BTR-DFW OCT 6>7[6] NOV 6>7[6] DEC 6>7[5] JAN 6>7[6]
AA BTV-ORD OCT 1.0>0.1[0.2]
AA BUF-ORD JAN 4>3[3]
AA BWI-ORD JAN 5>4[4]
AA CLT-PLS NOV 1.2>0.5[1.2]
AA COS-DFW SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4] NOV 4>5[4] DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
Extended season
*AA DFW-DGO DEC 0.5>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0]
AA DFW-FSD SEP 2>3[2.0] OCT 2>3[2.0]
AA DFW-HOU OCT 7>8[7] NOV 7>8[7] DEC 7>8[7] JAN 7>8[7]
AA DFW-MCO SEP 9>10[8] OCT 9>10[8] NOV 9>10[8] DEC 9>10[9] JAN 9>10[9]
AA DFW-PDX SEP 5>4[5] OCT 5>4[4] NOV 5>4[4] DEC 5>4[4] JAN 5>4[3]
AA DFW-SAV SEP 3>2[2.0] OCT 3>2[2] NOV 3>2[2] DEC 3>2[2]
AA ERI-ORD JAN 1.0>0.2[0]
AA GYE-MIA SEP 2>1.4[2]
AA HPN-ORD OCT 2>3[2]
AA IAD-LAX JAN 2>1.2[1.6]
**AA LAX-STS NOV 1.0>0.1[0] DEC 1.0>0[0] JAN 0.2>0[0]
AA MDT-ORD SEP 5>4[3] OCT 5>4[4] NOV 5>4[4] DEC 5>4[3] JAN 5>4[3]
AA MHT-ORD JAN 2>1.2[0]
AA MSO-ORD AUG 0.6>1.0[0.6]
AA ORD-ORF JAN 1.9>1.2[1.8]
AA ORD-PVD JAN 3>2[1.6]
AA ORD-RIC JAN 4>3[3]
AA ORD-SCE JAN 2>1.2[0]
AA PHL-SXM NOV 0.9>0.4[0]

AV GUA-MIA MAY 1.0>0.7[0.3]
AV LIM-MCO JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0]
AV MCO-SAL JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0.5] SEP 0.6>0[0.6] OCT 0.6>0[0.5] NOV 0.6>0[0.6] DEC 0.6>0[0.6] JAN 0.5>0[0.6]

B0 EWR-ORY AUG 1.5>1.1[1.3]

B6 BNA-FLL SEP 1.2>1.5[1.0] OCT 1.1>1.5[1.0]
B6 BOS-BUR SEP 0.9>0.6[0.9] OCT 1.0>0.6[0.9]
B6 BOS-CLT SEP 2.0>3[2.0]
B6 BOS-MVY OCT 0>0.2[0]
B6 BOS-PBI SEP 3>4[4] OCT 3>4[4]
B6 JFK-SDQ OCT 5>4[4]

DL AGP-JFK SEP 1.0>0.1[0.7]
DL AMS-JFK JAN 2>3[1.8]
DL ATL-EYW JAN 4>5[5]
DL ATL-GDL JAN 0.7>1.0[0.7]
DL ATL-GGT DEC 0.7>1.1[0.8]
DL ATL-PWM NOV 1.7>1.0[1.1]
*DL CHS-MSP SEP 0.9>0.0[0] OCT 0.9>0[0]
DL CVG-SLC DEC 1.8>1.3[1.2]
DL DCA-LGA SEP 9>10[9]
DL MFR-SEA DEC 3>2.0[1.9]
DL MSP-RIC SEP 3>1.8[1.8] OCT 3>1.7[1.7] NOV 3>1.8[1.8]
DL MSP-SJD DEC 0.1>0.4[0.1]
DL PDX-SEA JAN 8>7[7]
DL PHX-SEA SEP 4>3[4]
DL PSC-SEA JAN 2>3[3]

F9 MCO-MKE JUN 0.7>1.0[1.0]

Why is this still loaded at all? They announced it wouldn't operate.
*FI CLE-KEF JUN 0.6>0.2[0.7]

**HU CTU-ORD JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]

KS AKN-ANC JUN 5>0[5] JUL 6>0[8] AUG 4>0[4] SEP 3>0[3] OCT 2>0[1.8] NOV 2>0[1.8] DEC 2>0[1.6] JAN 0.5>0[0.5]
KS AKN-DLG JAN 0.5>0[0.5]
KS ANC-CDB JUN 0.2>0[1.1] JUL 0.3>0[0.7] AUG 0.3>0[0.8] SEP 0.6>0[0.8] OCT 0.9>0[0.4] NOV 0.9>0[0.4] DEC 0.8>0[0.5] JAN 0.4>0[0.5]
KS ANC-DLG JUN 1.8>0[3] JUL 3>0[3] AUG 3>0[3] SEP 2>0[3] OCT 3>0[1.8] NOV 3>0[1.8] DEC 3>0[1.6] JAN 0.5>0[0.5]
KS ANC-SDP JUL 0.3>0[0.7] AUG 0.3>0[0.8] SEP 0.6>0[0.8] OCT 0.9>0[0.4] NOV 0.9>0[0.4] DEC 0.8>0[0.5] JAN 0.4>0[0.5]
KS CDB-SDP JUL 0.3>0[0.2] AUG 0.3>0[0.0] SEP 0.3>0[0.1] JAN 0.4>0[0.4]

MT MAN-MCO JAN 0.1>0.3[0.1]

SY PDX-SAT JUL 0.5>0.3[0] AUG 0.6>0.3[0]
SY PDX-SFO JUL 0.5>0.8[0] AUG 0.6>0.9[0]

UA BNA-SFO JUN 2>1.7[2]
UA BOS-LAX JUN 3>2[3]
UA BOS-SFO JUN 7>6[8]
UA BWI-DEN JUN 3>2[2]
UA CHO-IAD JUN 2>1.6[2]
UA CLE-LAX JUN 3>1.9[1.8]
UA COS-IAH JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3]
*UA DEL-EWR MAY 0.7>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0]
UA DEN-DFW JUN 6>5[5]
UA EWR-LIM DEC 0.5>0.8[0.8]
*UA FCO-IAD NOV 0>0.7[0]
UA FLL-ORD JUN 2>1.3[3]
UA IAH-MCI JUL 5>4[5]
UA IAH-MSP JUN 5>4[4]
UA IAH-RDU JUN 5>4[5]
UA IAH-SEA JUN 6>5[6]
UA MSP-SFO JUN 3>1.7[1.7]
UA MSY-ORD JUN 3>2[3]
UA ORD-PWM JUN 3>2[3] JUL 3>2[3]
UA ORD-SAN JUN 5>4[5]

I marked the routes that appear to have complete suspensions. They recently said that in this route of cuts they focused on poorer performance rather than MAX planned routes, by swapping aircraft around. That tells us that point to point Mexico and leisure transcon are poor. Not surprising.
WN ABQ-MDW JUN 2>1.6[2]
WN ATL-LAS JUN 4>2[4]
WN AUS-LAX JUN 3>1.9[3]
WN AUS-OAK JUN 1.0>1.3[1.0]
WN AUS-SFO JUN 0.9>0.2[1.0]
*WN BHM-LAS JUN 1.0>0.3[1.0]
WN BNA-SAN JUN 3>2.0[2]
*WN BOS-MCI JUN 1.0>0.3[1.9]
WN BWI-DEN JUN 6>5[6]
WN BWI-FLL JUN 10>9[9]
WN BWI-LAS JUN 5>4[6]
WN BWI-PHX JUN 3>2[3]
WN CMH-LAS JUN 2>1.4[2]
*WN CUN-STL JUN 1.0>0.5[0.2]
Slot grab?
*WN DEN-LGB JUN 0.5>1.0[0.3] AUG 0>0.8[0.3]
WN DEN-TPA JUN 3>2[3]
*WN EWR-OAK JUN 0.8>0.2[1.0]
*WN EWR-SAN JUN 0.8>0.2[1.0]
WN FLL-SJU JUN 1.5>1.2[1.6]
WN GRR-MDW JUN 3>2[3]
*WN IND-OAK JUN 0.8>0.2[0]
WN IND-PHX JUN 2>1.5[2]
WN LAS-LGB AUG 0.2>3[0.5]
*WN LAS-PIT JUN 1.9>0.7[2]
*WN LAS-TPA JUN 1.3>0.7[1.9]
WN LAX-MSY JUN 2>1.7[2]
*WN LAX-OMA JUN 0.8>0.2[0.8]
*WN LAX-PIT JUN 0.8>0.2[1.0]
Slot Grab
**WN LGB-SJC AUG 0>3[0]
**WN LGB-SMF AUG 2>4[2]
*WN MCO-OAK JUN 0.7>0.2[0.2]
*WN MCO-SAN JUN 0.9>0.2[1.0]
*WN MCO-SJC JUN 0.8>0.2[1.0]
*WN MCO-SMF JUN 0.7>0.2[1.0]
*WN MDW-PDX JUN 2>0.5[3]
*WN MDW-PUJ JUN 1.0>0.4[1.0]
WN MDW-SFO JUN 2.0>1.3[3]
*WN OAK-PVR JUN 0.6>0.3[1.0]
*WN OAK-SJD JUN 0.7>0.3[1.0]
*WN SAN-TPA JUN 0.8>0.3[1.0]
*WN SJD-SNA JUN 1.0>0.4[1.0]

*WS BOS-YHZ JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0]

XE BUR-CCR MAY 0>1.6[0.9]
XE BUR-LAS MAY 0>6[1.0]
XE BUR-OAK MAY 0>5[1.2]
XE LAS-OAK MAY 0>3[0]
XE LAS-SNA MAY 0>3[0]
XE OAK-SNA MAY 0>1.9[0]
 
Ishrion
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:03 pm

Dropping STS before it even starts...
 
Justapax
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:21 pm

Thanks for posting my favorite Sunday mourning thread so early (although you have mentioned it depends on how early the data is available). This weekly chess match is my favorite A.net thread!!
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:29 pm

Justapax wrote:
Thanks for posting my favorite Sunday mourning thread so early (although you have mentioned it depends on how early the data is available). This weekly chess match is my favorite A.net thread!!

Thanks! Yeah, the data feed update was on schedule today. I was worried with the holiday.
 
joeljack
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:02 pm

WN LAX-OMA JUN 0.8>0.2[0.8]

Not surprising, the times are terrible this year. They were good last year and the flight was successful, this year, OMA-LAX was a 630pm flight and on sundays it left OMA at 9pm! Eastbound wasn’t bad on some days but the Sunday flight arrived OMA at 2am early Monday morning! Very few people will take that! I’m not sure what they were thinking.
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:08 pm

I guess if WS isn’t flying YHZ-Europe this summer, makes no sense to use BOS as feed. Hopefully it comes back but it also shows the limit of WS/DL since youd think that DL could feed YHZ in BOS.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:16 pm

joeljack wrote:
WN LAX-OMA JUN 0.8>0.2[0.8]

Not surprising, the times are terrible this year. They were good last year and the flight was successful, this year, OMA-LAX was a 630pm flight and on sundays it left OMA at 9pm! Eastbound wasn’t bad on some days but the Sunday flight arrived OMA at 2am early Monday morning! Very few people will take that! I’m not sure what they were thinking.

I'm assuming all these 0.2s means the flights go away completely for part of the month, although I suspect they are going to roll that forward potentially to the end of the year.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:22 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
I guess if WS isn’t flying YHZ-Europe this summer, makes no sense to use BOS as feed. Hopefully it comes back but it also shows the limit of WS/DL since youd think that DL could feed YHZ in BOS.

I get the impression that the WS-DL relationship is very undefined at this point. They never got ATI approval I don't think, so I guess DL doesn't want to touch it without that all in place? Or interest has waned like it did with WS-WN?
 
aaflyer777
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:39 pm

UA BOS-SFO JUN 7>6[8]
Yikes, I've never seen them run less than 8x in the summer, B6 and DL must be hurting them

*WN BOS-MCI JUN 1.0>0.3[1.9]
I don't understand why they do this, just cut the route! It's gonna happen sooner or later!

*WS BOS-YHZ JUN 1.0>0.1[1.0] JUL 1.0>0[1.0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0]
I'm kind of surprised they got pushed off this one, I know a lot of people connect to their transatlantic flights but there's still a decent amount of O+D traffic
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:43 pm

Does DL still serve YHZ seasonally from LGA?
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:45 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
I guess if WS isn’t flying YHZ-Europe this summer, makes no sense to use BOS as feed. Hopefully it comes back but it also shows the limit of WS/DL since youd think that DL could feed YHZ in BOS.


Unlike AC that are suspending YHZ/YYT-LHR until the MAXes are back in the air, WS have given no indication that YHZ transatlantic is cut. It’s instead loaded with 700s and 800s, meaning CDG will likely require tech stops sometimes. After a period of non-hub Transborder capacity reinstatements/additions, now is another cut following AA YOW-PHL reduction back to a pitiful 2x, UA cutting YYJ-SFO & UA’s incomprehensible (multi-month) “temporary” suspension of YOW-ORD, which anecdotally is now loaded to come back on March 6, 2020 with UA’s booking window schedule extension that was loaded last weekend.

enilria wrote:
joeljack wrote:
WN LAX-OMA JUN 0.8>0.2[0.8]

Not surprising, the times are terrible this year. They were good last year and the flight was successful, this year, OMA-LAX was a 630pm flight and on sundays it left OMA at 9pm! Eastbound wasn’t bad on some days but the Sunday flight arrived OMA at 2am early Monday morning! Very few people will take that! I’m not sure what they were thinking.

I'm assuming all these 0.2s means the flights go away completely for part of the month, although I suspect they are going to roll that forward potentially to the end of the year.


Without looking, I’d guess anything dropping to 0.2 for June = Saturday-only as the 0.2 = 5 Saturdays, which there are this June vs the more typical 0.1 = 4 Saturdays in a month. With the exception of LAX-OMA, all of the cuts are 3 or more hour routes in duration. It’s the easiest way to juggle schedules around the MAX grounding. As can be seen, WN don’t actually cut a single route outright, but several go Saturday-only when there’s enough actual slack in the system for them to operate.

As for DL’s CHS-MSP, it looks like this is a seasonal route that will again simply end the Labour Day weekend replicating last summer.

Happy Easter enilria and thanks as always!
Last edited by Dominion301 on Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:12 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:48 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
I guess if WS isn’t flying YHZ-Europe this summer, makes no sense to use BOS as feed. Hopefully it comes back but it also shows the limit of WS/DL since youd think that DL could feed YHZ in BOS.


There are extensive BOS-Europe non-stops. BOS travelers don't need to connect in YHZ.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:01 pm

What’s up with all the year over year AA cuts at ORD in January? I know it’s a slow month, but it was slow last January too.

Looks like WN is trimming a bunch of long flying.
 
ghYHZ
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:14 pm

AC has always been the dominant player between YHZ and BOS.....and now several new options for YHZ travellers this summer with UA upgaugeing to Mainline to EWR plus adding ORD ....and AA back with PHL and LGA. DL continues the summertime service to LGA
 
B1168
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:32 pm

HU adding ORD-CTU...... well, subsidies at work.
At some 10 years ago, China had the offer to sign open-sky with the United States. Who knows what will happen if that materialized? It’s just a 3rd portion open-sky, and it’s already becoming excessive; complete open sky? Ask Australians how they feel about it.
 
codc10
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:33 pm

aaflyer777 wrote:
UA BOS-SFO JUN 7>6[8]
Yikes, I've never seen them run less than 8x in the summer, B6 and DL must be hurting them


The various June mainline cuts are related to the impact of the 737MAX grounding for June, because 757s are being pressed into Hawaii service and elsewhere as UA runs out of options to offset the loss of capacity. United is hopeful, but not optimistic, of getting the MAX back in July.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:40 pm

As if ORD-Asia wasn’t crowded enough.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
Jshank83
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:49 pm

WN STL-CUN isn’t a complete cut. Just cut back to Sat/Sun
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:00 pm

Thanks again enilria!

enilria wrote:
AA BOS-LAX OCT 6>5[6] NOV 6>5[5]
AA IAD-LAX JAN 2>1.2[1.6]
**AA LAX-STS NOV 1.0>0.1[0] DEC 1.0>0[0] JAN 0.2>0[0]

is it just me, or AA seems to be cutting back on some more stuff out of LAX?

AV LIM-MCO JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0[1.0] SEP 1.0>0[1.0] OCT 1.0>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[1.0] DEC 1.0>0[1.0] JAN 1.0>0[1.0]
AV MCO-SAL JUL 0.5>0[0] AUG 0.6>0[0.5] SEP 0.6>0[0.6] OCT 0.6>0[0.5] NOV 0.6>0[0.6] DEC 0.6>0[0.6] JAN 0.5>0[0.6]

a lot of cuts by AV these days

B6 BNA-FLL SEP 1.2>1.5[1.0] OCT 1.1>1.5[1.0]
B6 BOS-BUR SEP 0.9>0.6[0.9] OCT 1.0>0.6[0.9]
B6 BOS-CLT SEP 2.0>3[2.0]
B6 BOS-MVY OCT 0>0.2[0]
B6 BOS-PBI SEP 3>4[4] OCT 3>4[4]
B6 JFK-SDQ OCT 5>4[4]

Seems to reverse a couple of cuts from last week BOS-BUR seems to be a quite poor performing route. JFK-SDQ at 5x daily in Oct is a little ambitious.
XE BUR-CCR MAY 0>1.6[0.9]
XE BUR-LAS MAY 0>6[1.0]
XE BUR-OAK MAY 0>5[1.2]
XE LAS-OAK MAY 0>3[0]
XE LAS-SNA MAY 0>3[0]
XE OAK-SNA MAY 0>1.9[0]

I think this may be missing CCR schedule to LAS. Other than that, a lot of growth the past year at OAK and SNA.

aaflyer777 wrote:
UA BOS-SFO JUN 7>6[8]
Yikes, I've never seen them run less than 8x in the summer, B6 and DL must be hurting them

These are MAX related cuts. UA is the strongest carrier here and DL is the weakest.
*WN BOS-MCI JUN 1.0>0.3[1.9]
I don't understand why they do this, just cut the route! It's gonna happen sooner or later!

Why should they cut a route where they are outperforming DL?
 
phllax
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:14 pm

enilria wrote:

I marked the routes that appear to have complete suspensions. They recently said that in this route of cuts they focused on poorer performance rather than MAX planned routes, by swapping aircraft around. That tells us that point to point Mexico and leisure transcon are poor. Not surprising.


I think WN has it rougher than the other MAX operators because they use the 800 and Max as 1 airplane - 1 day the route may be an 800, the next day a Max. This as compared to the way UA and AA schedule it makes it much harder to see what to cut to backfill, but it also makes it easier on the cancellation side in that at least there's not any markets entirely served by the Max like AA and UA do.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:44 pm

phllax wrote:
enilria wrote:

I marked the routes that appear to have complete suspensions. They recently said that in this route of cuts they focused on poorer performance rather than MAX planned routes, by swapping aircraft around. That tells us that point to point Mexico and leisure transcon are poor. Not surprising.


I think WN has it rougher than the other MAX operators because they use the 800 and Max as 1 airplane - 1 day the route may be an 800, the next day a Max. This as compared to the way UA and AA schedule it makes it much harder to see what to cut to backfill, but it also makes it easier on the cancellation side in that at least there's not any markets entirely served by the Max like AA and UA do.


Good point though OTOH and unlike UA, WN wasn’t yet using the “beyond-737NG” range or runway performance of the MAX, which in some ways makes things easier. Is UA using 757s or bumping people off of NGs on LAX/SFO-OGG?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thanks again enilria!

enilria wrote:
AA BOS-LAX OCT 6>5[6] NOV 6>5[5]
AA IAD-LAX JAN 2>1.2[1.6]
**AA LAX-STS NOV 1.0>0.1[0] DEC 1.0>0[0] JAN 0.2>0[0]

is it just me, or AA seems to be cutting back on some more stuff out of LAX?



It appears AS has won that competition. I believe AS has several STS-LAX flights with E75's vs. a single AA CRJ-700.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:54 pm

I kind of wondered if Alaska's schedule have stabilized some since there hasn't been that much churn in their schedules from this post's POV.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:06 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
phllax wrote:
enilria wrote:

I marked the routes that appear to have complete suspensions. They recently said that in this route of cuts they focused on poorer performance rather than MAX planned routes, by swapping aircraft around. That tells us that point to point Mexico and leisure transcon are poor. Not surprising.


I think WN has it rougher than the other MAX operators because they use the 800 and Max as 1 airplane - 1 day the route may be an 800, the next day a Max. This as compared to the way UA and AA schedule it makes it much harder to see what to cut to backfill, but it also makes it easier on the cancellation side in that at least there's not any markets entirely served by the Max like AA and UA do.


Good point though OTOH and unlike UA, WN wasn’t yet using the “beyond-737NG” range or runway performance of the MAX, which in some ways makes things easier. Is UA using 757s or bumping people off of NGs on LAX/SFO-OGG?

UA used 738SFP prior to the MAX and continue to use that today along with a mix of 757.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:18 pm

Did some dummy bookings on WN's site, looks like BOS-MCI runs daily til June 8 and then there's no non-stops for the rest of the month
Last edited by aaflyer777 on Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:19 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
I kind of wondered if Alaska's schedule have stabilized some since there hasn't been that much churn in their schedules from this post's POV.

I doubt it. Something is wrong at AS HQ. They haven't made a meaningful update to their schedule in over 2 months:

2/17: last real update viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415825
2/24: Added one LAX-DAL Sep-Nov
3/3: One small change to August ANC-SCC
3/10: no changes
3/17: One June change to ANC-DUT
3/24: no changes
3/31: just one SNA cut
4/7: just reverses SNA cut
4/14: no changes
4/21: no changes
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:26 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
What’s up with all the year over year AA cuts at ORD in January? I know it’s a slow month, but it was slow last January too.

Looks like WN is trimming a bunch of long flying.

Most of the AA markets are up YOY for January, there are only two shown that are down, the rest are flat or up.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:32 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
I kind of wondered if Alaska's schedule have stabilized some since there hasn't been that much churn in their schedules from this post's POV.

I doubt it. Something is wrong at AS HQ. They haven't made a meaningful update to their schedule in over 2 months:

2/17: last real update viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415825
2/24: Added one LAX-DAL Sep-Nov
3/3: One small change to August ANC-SCC
3/10: no changes
3/17: One June change to ANC-DUT
3/24: no changes
3/31: just one SNA cut
4/7: just reverses SNA cut
4/14: no changes
4/21: no changes


I had heard that AS has pretty much stopped expansion (down to only 2% this year). But they have a lot to digest...still dealing with the VX merger and PAE service. Earlier in the year, a few of the DAL flights were going to mainline.

I'm hoping some of the PAE will become mainline soon. Also, maybe the MAX setbacks have some impact, but they were only getting a couple this year.
 
airlinepeanuts
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:37 pm

Wasn’t STS-LAX seasonal to begin with? Looks like it’s still on the schedule next month. Maybe they’re ending it early? I take it that doesn’t bode well for it returning next year?
 
sargester
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 7:21 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Does DL still serve YHZ seasonally from LGA?


Yes, and AA is starting it
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 7:50 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
Without looking, I’d guess anything dropping to 0.2 for June = Saturday-only as the 0.2 = 5 Saturdays, which there are this June vs the more typical 0.1 = 4 Saturdays in a month. With the exception of LAX-OMA, all of the cuts are 3 or more hour routes in duration. It’s the easiest way to juggle schedules around the MAX grounding.

Thanks!

You may be right about the schedules. I really should look on wn.com. I'm sure somebody will.
B1168 wrote:
HU adding ORD-CTU...... well, subsidies at work.
At some 10 years ago, China had the offer to sign open-sky with the United States. Who knows what will happen if that materialized? It’s just a 3rd portion open-sky, and it’s already becoming excessive; complete open sky? Ask Australians how they feel about it.

This route will be gone in a year. The subsidies are huge, but not huge enough.
phllax wrote:
round. That tells us that point to point Mexico and leisure transcon are poor. Not surprising.


I think WN has it rougher than the other MAX operators because they use the 800 and Max as 1 airplane - 1 day the route may be an 800, the next day a Max. This as compared to the way UA and AA schedule it makes it much harder to see what to cut to backfill, but it also makes it easier on the cancellation side in that at least there's not any markets entirely served by the Max like AA and UA do.

Interesting detail. Thanks!
aaflyer777 wrote:
Did some dummy bookings on WN's site, looks like BOS-MCI runs daily til June 8 and then there's no non-stops for the rest of the month

Yeah, that was my suspicion. These routes are suspended.
Rdh3e wrote:
I doubt it. Something is wrong at AS HQ. They haven't made a meaningful update to their schedule in over 2 months:

It's because they have been interviewing for the VP Planning job. I'm hearing now that they may leave it unfilled which makes you wonder where things will go.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:24 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
WN STL-CUN isn’t a complete cut. Just cut back to Sat/Sun


Wonder what this means for F9? I know they went back down to sub-daily.
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:02 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
I kind of wondered if Alaska's schedule have stabilized some since there hasn't been that much churn in their schedules from this post's POV.

I doubt it. Something is wrong at AS HQ. They haven't made a meaningful update to their schedule in over 2 months:

2/17: last real update viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415825
2/24: Added one LAX-DAL Sep-Nov
3/3: One small change to August ANC-SCC
3/10: no changes
3/17: One June change to ANC-DUT
3/24: no changes
3/31: just one SNA cut
4/7: just reverses SNA cut
4/14: no changes
4/21: no changes


I posted this back in the 3/24/19 OAG Changes thread:
Another week without a single freq/route change from AAG. What's this, the 3rd straight week, and there have been many '0 changes' weeks this year for AS I believe. Management 'promised' ~2% growth in 2019 and I'm thinking they've achieved that already -- with PAE, ELP and CMH -- so ...


I believe this has nothing to do any more with the 2% growth limit, or even a kibosh on any new routes. This is serious -- hardly any frequency adjustments system-wide for months now!

It's as though the entire network planning department is on furlough. (I also keep checking my AS turn schedules for SAN, which I now have created thru 11/5 and NOTHING is happening with the exception of a few random flight number changes. Even the June 6 schedule, covering the PEAK travel time of the year, has had no changes since January!)

AAG has, in the past, constantly adjusted schedules, including minor as well as major frequency changes -- which show up in these OAG threads -- along with time & equipment changes that don't. Even if the carrier continues its search for a new VP Network Planning, is there nothing happening in the entire department? (And should such a search be taking so long?)

I sure hope things change soon -- this is getting really troubling...

bb
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:15 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
I kind of wondered if Alaska's schedule have stabilized some since there hasn't been that much churn in their schedules from this post's POV.


Nice to see things apparently stabilizing at AS. I imagine soon we’ll see the normal fall reductions announced.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:25 pm

Haha. According to people on here the lack of Alaska’s schedule changes either means the airline has stabilized or is in trouble. This site is funny. Maybe...just maybe...the current schedules are working well enough. So dramatic.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:00 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
WN STL-CUN isn’t a complete cut. Just cut back to Sat/Sun


Wonder what this means for F9? I know they went back down to sub-daily.


Not over summer though. Only mid Aug-mid Nov. they go back to daily mid November.

WN already is once a month for Aug-Sep then daily again in Oct. so Aug-Sep must be the slow season.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:56 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
As if ORD-Asia wasn’t crowded enough.


Another over saturated market when others are not being served.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:15 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
Haha. According to people on here the lack of Alaska’s schedule changes either means the airline has stabilized or is in trouble. This site is funny. Maybe...just maybe...the current schedules are working well enough. So dramatic.

It is incredibly unusual. The people saying things have "stabilized" have no basis for saying so. It's a rudderless ship that is under pressure from all angles and has no leader in place for the most critical part of their business.
 
Planeboy17
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:24 pm

klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
As if ORD-Asia wasn’t crowded enough.


Another over saturated market when others are not being served.

What specific city is not being served?
 
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stl07
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:43 pm

Planeboy17 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
As if ORD-Asia wasn’t crowded enough.


Another over saturated market when others are not being served.

What specific city is not being served?

PIT :stirthepot:

Oh and IND/BNA
Interesting how every thread is spammed with "bring back paid membership, there are too many spammers"
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:23 am

SANFan wrote:
AAG has, in the past, constantly adjusted schedules, including minor as well as major frequency changes -- which show up in these OAG threads -- along with time & equipment changes that don't. Even if the carrier continues its search for a new VP Network Planning, is there nothing happening in the entire department? (And should such a search be taking so long?)

I sure hope things change soon -- this is getting really troubling...

bb

I think a lot of this boils down to who is authorized to make decisions about PDX and SFO. The Planning team has been in a holding pattern during the recruitment process for the VP. I think there are factions that want to shrink PDX and those that don't. Same with SFO. There has been nobody to break that tie, so nothing is being done. I think even though it is now looking unlikely they will fill the VP spot, they will likely put somebody in charge of that decision whether it is an existing VP expanding their role to include Planning, or if they take a Director and give him/her the authority. I would expect one of those things to happen soon, and then hopefully we will see some closure on these things. My guess is that since that would, by definition (unless they hire a Director level from outside), be an insider they would lean toward the traditional AS network which would mean PDX stays and SFO withers. Just my guess... If they go with an outsider I think it is much more likely the opposite would happened.

The case for each is opposite:
SFO: No market control/unique connecting geography/Mega city/Need int'l long-haul to capture business travel.
PDX: Strong market control/duplicative connecting geography/not a mega city/don't need int'l long haul to capture business travel.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:46 am

enilria wrote:
SANFan wrote:
AAG has, in the past, constantly adjusted schedules, including minor as well as major frequency changes -- which show up in these OAG threads -- along with time & equipment changes that don't. Even if the carrier continues its search for a new VP Network Planning, is there nothing happening in the entire department? (And should such a search be taking so long?)

I sure hope things change soon -- this is getting really troubling...

bb

I think a lot of this boils down to who is authorized to make decisions about PDX and SFO. The Planning team has been in a holding pattern during the recruitment process for the VP. I think there are factions that want to shrink PDX and those that don't. Same with SFO. There has been nobody to break that tie, so nothing is being done. I think even though it is now looking unlikely they will fill the VP spot, they will likely put somebody in charge of that decision whether it is an existing VP expanding their role to include Planning, or if they take a Director and give him/her the authority. I would expect one of those things to happen soon, and then hopefully we will see some closure on these things. My guess is that since that would, by definition (unless they hire a Director level from outside), be an insider they would lean toward the traditional AS network which would mean PDX stays and SFO withers. Just my guess... If they go with an outsider I think it is much more likely the opposite would happened.

The case for each is opposite:
SFO: No market control/unique connecting geography/Mega city/Need int'l long-haul to capture business travel.
PDX: Strong market control/duplicative connecting geography/not a mega city/don't need int'l long haul to capture business travel.


Wouldn't something like that be a higher level decision though? If they have to make a decision about which one to grow and which one to shrink, I would expect the CEO or the board to make a decision like that. I'm operating under the following assumptions:
1) growth is 2% with basically the same # of departures and more seating on each flight.
2) Growing PDX is good for margins
3) Growing SFO/LAX is bad for margins
4) Main growth is at SEA, so other hubs can only grow at the cost of each other.
So if they pick to strengthen PDX (which faces no danger) at the expense of SFO/LAX, it will essentially be admitting that their VX purchase is not working out and they can't ever be more than a distant second in SFO or a distant 5th in LAX. If they pick to strengthen SFO/LAX and cut back PDX/SJC/SAN, they will most likely have worse margin and be a giant FU for the people inside the organization that pursued organic growth all this year. And worse margin will make them possibly a takeover target. I'm not sure how a VP can make such a decision.
 
klm617
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:54 am

Planeboy17 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
As if ORD-Asia wasn’t crowded enough.


Another over saturated market when others are not being served.

What specific city is not being served?



PDX, DEN, PHL, DTW, ATL,
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:05 am

Rdh3e wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
Haha. According to people on here the lack of Alaska’s schedule changes either means the airline has stabilized or is in trouble. This site is funny. Maybe...just maybe...the current schedules are working well enough. So dramatic.

It is incredibly unusual. The people saying things have "stabilized" have no basis for saying so. It's a rudderless ship that is under pressure from all angles and has no leader in place for the most critical part of their business.


Or is there a basis of saying there is turmoil at AS?
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:58 am

Cubsrule wrote:
phllax wrote:
enilria wrote:

I marked the routes that appear to have complete suspensions. They recently said that in this route of cuts they focused on poorer performance rather than MAX planned routes, by swapping aircraft around. That tells us that point to point Mexico and leisure transcon are poor. Not surprising.


I think WN has it rougher than the other MAX operators because they use the 800 and Max as 1 airplane - 1 day the route may be an 800, the next day a Max. This as compared to the way UA and AA schedule it makes it much harder to see what to cut to backfill, but it also makes it easier on the cancellation side in that at least there's not any markets entirely served by the Max like AA and UA do.


Good point though OTOH and unlike UA, WN wasn’t yet using the “beyond-737NG” range or runway performance of the MAX, which in some ways makes things easier. Is UA using 757s or bumping people off of NGs on LAX/SFO-OGG?


I know at first they were swapping in 777's on some of the routes but looks like they're back to using 737 and 757's.
 
737max8
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Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Mon Apr 22, 2019 4:05 am

WN was using the MAX for a lot of these longer segments, so it does make sense to see a lot of them...things like MCO-SJC and PIT-LAX seemed to be a MAX pretty often. Can afford to cut those when you can connect folks through tons of stations in the middle of the country (HOU, DAL, STL, MCI, MDW, DEN, etc.)

Thanks for sharing!
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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B1168
Posts: 507
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:26 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:27 pm

enilria wrote:
B1168 wrote:
HU adding ORD-CTU...... well, subsidies at work.
At some 10 years ago, China had the offer to sign open-sky with the United States. Who knows what will happen if that materialized? It’s just a 3rd portion open-sky, and it’s already becoming excessive; complete open sky? Ask Australians how they feel about it.

This route will be gone in a year. The subsidies are huge, but not huge enough.


Gone in a year it will, but only if 3U manages to get Boston running. I hope I am kidding, but I am not... maybe their purpose is to drive UA out? Who knows.
737max8 wrote:
WN was using the MAX for a lot of these longer segments, so it does make sense to see a lot of them...things like MCO-SJC and PIT-LAX seemed to be a MAX pretty often. Can afford to cut those when you can connect folks through tons of stations in the middle of the country (HOU, DAL, STL, MCI, MDW, DEN, etc.)

Thanks for sharing!

As far as I’m concerned, I have seen (nearly) none of these 2nd tier city routes operated by equipment larger than 789/333 or more frequent than 3 weekly. That basically means nothing more than “the route exists”...
 
dmstorm22
Posts: 541
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:49 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Mon Apr 22, 2019 1:37 pm

enilria wrote:
*UA DEL-EWR MAY 0.7>0[1.0] JUN 1.0>0[1.0]


I thought this cut was supposed to be short term, but now extending for 2+ months.

Guessing there still is no end in sight to the issue of having to go around Pakistan airspace? Or is there some larger reason also at play here?
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1357
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:40 pm

enilria wrote:
SANFan wrote:
AAG has, in the past, constantly adjusted schedules, including minor as well as major frequency changes -- which show up in these OAG threads -- along with time & equipment changes that don't. Even if the carrier continues its search for a new VP Network Planning, is there nothing happening in the entire department? (And should such a search be taking so long?)

I sure hope things change soon -- this is getting really troubling...

bb

I think a lot of this boils down to who is authorized to make decisions about PDX and SFO. The Planning team has been in a holding pattern during the recruitment process for the VP. I think there are factions that want to shrink PDX and those that don't. Same with SFO. There has been nobody to break that tie, so nothing is being done. I think even though it is now looking unlikely they will fill the VP spot, they will likely put somebody in charge of that decision whether it is an existing VP expanding their role to include Planning, or if they take a Director and give him/her the authority. I would expect one of those things to happen soon, and then hopefully we will see some closure on these things. My guess is that since that would, by definition (unless they hire a Director level from outside), be an insider they would lean toward the traditional AS network which would mean PDX stays and SFO withers. Just my guess... If they go with an outsider I think it is much more likely the opposite would happened.

The case for each is opposite:
SFO: No market control/unique connecting geography/Mega city/Need int'l long-haul to capture business travel.
PDX: Strong market control/duplicative connecting geography/not a mega city/don't need int'l long haul to capture business travel.


Is it possible that we a.nutters are addicted to change? If nothing is happening, we get wrestless and start unfounded speculation about bad news?

As for SFO, I’ll admit I’m not a fan, but trying to be objective, I don’t know what AS thought they would accomplish at SFO. I know, the criticism of AS and it’s merger with VX has been gone over to death. And I *like* AS. But there were at least two things that AS was up against at SFO...

1. VX had a unique identity and market niche. The chances of AS capturing that same trendy techy thing that VX was attempting seems unlikely.

2. UA’s fortress hub at SFO...what were/are the realistic chances of competing with UA there? What would AS offer as competition? They are what I’d call a “full service carrier “, meaning first/business class, reserved seating, and so on. They are straddling the line between full service and low cost. So what is AS offering that UA can’t deliver better, with more flights and more choices? Or WN can provide with low fares?

As for PDX, I’ve often wondered how they can profit from having a hub there with their main hub just 120 miles north.

LAX is a zoo,with a ton of competition and not enough gates to go around.
 
jplatts
Posts: 2781
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: OAG Changes 4/21/2019:AA Drops LAX-STS;HU Adds ORD-CTU;WN MAX Cuts;WS Drops BOS-YHZ

Mon Apr 22, 2019 4:25 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Is it possible that we a.nutters are addicted to change? If nothing is happening, we get wrestless and start unfounded speculation about bad news?

As for SFO, I’ll admit I’m not a fan, but trying to be objective, I don’t know what AS thought they would accomplish at SFO. I know, the criticism of AS and it’s merger with VX has been gone over to death. And I *like* AS. But there were at least two things that AS was up against at SFO...

1. VX had a unique identity and market niche. The chances of AS capturing that same trendy techy thing that VX was attempting seems unlikely.

2. UA’s fortress hub at SFO...what were/are the realistic chances of competing with UA there? What would AS offer as competition? They are what I’d call a “full service carrier “, meaning first/business class, reserved seating, and so on. They are straddling the line between full service and low cost. So what is AS offering that UA can’t deliver better, with more flights and more choices? Or WN can provide with low fares?

As for PDX, I’ve often wondered how they can profit from having a hub there with their main hub just 120 miles north.

LAX is a zoo,with a ton of competition and not enough gates to go around.


One big difference between PDX and SEA for AS is that DL has a hub at SEA in addition to AS, whereas AS is the only carrier that has a hub at PDX. There are also some destinations that have nonstop service to PDX on only AS but have nonstop service to SEA on AS and at least one additional carrier.

Even though UA has a fortress hub at SFO, there are some Asia-Pacific AS codeshare partners such as CX, FJ, JL, KE, and QF that serve SFO. AS can offer international connections onto CX, FJ, JL, KE, and QF flights at SFO, whereas UA doesn't codeshare with CX, FJ, JL, KE, or QF.

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