freakyrat
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:58 am

tjwgrr wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
GRR?

It can hardly sustain mainline service to Chicago.


UA/ AA/ WN operate 17-18 flights from GRR to Chicago daily. Granted, most are RJs with the exception being WN.

GRR currently has a FIS under construction. I don't think TATL flights are really on GRR's radar but rather flights to Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America. I can envision charter TATL flights from GRR, but not scheduled.

The Grand Rapids MSA is approaching 1.1 million people.


SBN just opened it's FIS yesterday with a chartered 747-400 flight from MAN. FIS was installed for G4 to be able to offer flights to CUN and the airport was approached by a carrier for flights to NAS. Charters to Ireland for the University of Notre Dame are also now a reality. The SBN MSA is coming back thanks to an original GRR initiative called Project Propel that encourages local airport use. The airport is showing a 27% increase in enplanements and should serve just about 450,000 passengers this year and that's not even counting any new International service.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:15 am

WaywardMemphian wrote:

MCI had since had Iceland come and go


MCI still has Iceland
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:23 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out.


Could it be that most of the cities are possibly within range using a B737-8MAX, A321neo, A321LR, and A321XLR?

nautical miles from LHR
2832 MHT
2875 PVD
2922 ALB
3231 ORF
3247 RIC
3320 GRR
3344 CMH
3443 CVG
3516 SDF
3607 SAV
3693 JAX
3793 MEM
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:47 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
747megatop wrote:
Any chance of strengthening of TATL service out of DEN and PHX? Once would think there would be more TATL service out of these 2 metros..or..is the demand too weak?


Both of these airports have the disadvantage of being a 'hot and high' airport, meaning that payloads are restricted. Therefor they're not the most ideal airports for long haul flights.

Also for Phoenix I've heard that this city has one of the lowest incomes per capita in the region, meaning people got less money to spend. That would likely reduce the demand for air travel and certainly long haul air travel. If people don't have the money for it, they don't fly. Simple as that.


For starters, PHX isn't high. It also has an 11,500 ft runway which should alleviate any performance concerns. Condor operates a 767-300 in a leisure configuration out of PHX to FRA and they don't seem to have any problems. I can't imagine anything more modern with significantly better performance like an A332/777/787/A350 would have any performance problems out of PHX.

There's plenty of big business moving into the PHX valley and Maricopa county is the quickest growing county in the country. The demand is there, which is why Condor has expanded service and AA/BA have gone double daily. I think it's only a matter of time until LH starts up PHX, although I do think the A333 isn't an ideal aircraft to start a route with.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:56 am

freakyrat wrote:
The SBN MSA is coming back thanks to an original GRR initiative called Project Propel that encourages local airport use. The airport is showing a 27% increase in enplanements and should serve just about 450,000 passengers this year and that's not even counting any new International service.


Airports designated by the FAA as LARGE and MEDIUM carry almost 90% of traffic in the USA. It is difficult to imagine TATL to a "small" airport. I realize that it has been done. Look at Stewart NY!

GA ATL Atlanta
CA LAX Los Angeles
IL ORD Chicago
TX DFW Fort Worth
CO DEN Denver
NY JFK New York
CA SFO San Francisco International Airport
NV LAS Las Vegas
WA SEA Seattle
NC CLT Charlotte
NJ EWR Newark
FL MCO Orlando
AZ PHX Phoenix
FL MIA Miami
TX IAH Houston
MA BOS Boston
MN MSP Minneapolis
MI DTW Detroit
FL FLL Fort Lauderdale
NY LGA New York
PA PHL Philadelphia
MD BWI Glen Burnie
UT SLC Salt Lake City
VA DCA Arlington
CA SAN San Diego
VA IAD Dulles
IL MDW Chicago
HI HNL Honolulu
FL TPA Tampa
OR PDX Portland
Large Hub Primary
....
Medium Primary
TX DAL Dallas
MO STL St. Louis
TN BNA Nashville
TX AUS Austin
TX HOU Houston
CA OAK Oakland
CA SJC San Jose
LA MSY Metairie
NC RDU Raleigh
MO MCI Kansas City
CA SMF Sacramento
CA SNA Santa Ana
OH CLE Cleveland
TX SAT San Antonio
FL RSW Fort Myers
IN IND Indianapolis
PA PIT Pittsburgh
PR SJU San Juan
KY CVG Greater Cincinnati International Airport
OH CMH Columbus
HI OGG Kahului
WI MKE Milwaukee
CT BDL Windsor Locks
FL PBI West Palm Beach
FL JAX Jacksonville
AK ANC Anchorage
NM ABQ Albuquerque
CA BUR Burbank
NY BUF Buffalo
CA ONT Ontario
NE OMA Omaha
 
747megatop
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:52 pm

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
747megatop wrote:
Any chance of strengthening of TATL service out of DEN and PHX? Once would think there would be more TATL service out of these 2 metros..or..is the demand too weak?


Both of these airports have the disadvantage of being a 'hot and high' airport, meaning that payloads are restricted. Therefor they're not the most ideal airports for long haul flights.

Also for Phoenix I've heard that this city has one of the lowest incomes per capita in the region, meaning people got less money to spend. That would likely reduce the demand for air travel and certainly long haul air travel. If people don't have the money for it, they don't fly. Simple as that.


For starters, PHX isn't high. It also has an 11,500 ft runway which should alleviate any performance concerns. Condor operates a 767-300 in a leisure configuration out of PHX to FRA and they don't seem to have any problems. I can't imagine anything more modern with significantly better performance like an A332/777/787/A350 would have any performance problems out of PHX.

There's plenty of big business moving into the PHX valley and Maricopa county is the quickest growing county in the country. The demand is there, which is why Condor has expanded service and AA/BA have gone double daily. I think it's only a matter of time until LH starts up PHX, although I do think the A333 isn't an ideal aircraft to start a route with.

Aren't aircraft like the 787 that serve long thin routes the ideal ones to have more TATL and TPAC connectivity out of DEN and PHX? The reason i keep bringing these cities up is because i would imagine they would have more TATL service than they currently have before airlines start looking at those cities that are mentioned in the beginning of this thread.
 
747megatop
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:01 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
The SBN MSA is coming back thanks to an original GRR initiative called Project Propel that encourages local airport use. The airport is showing a 27% increase in enplanements and should serve just about 450,000 passengers this year and that's not even counting any new International service.


Airports designated by the FAA as LARGE and MEDIUM carry almost 90% of traffic in the USA. It is difficult to imagine TATL to a "small" airport. I realize that it has been done. Look at Stewart NY!

GA ATL Atlanta
CA LAX Los Angeles
IL ORD Chicago
TX DFW Fort Worth
CO DEN Denver
NY JFK New York
CA SFO San Francisco International Airport
NV LAS Las Vegas
WA SEA Seattle
NC CLT Charlotte
NJ EWR Newark
FL MCO Orlando
AZ PHX Phoenix
FL MIA Miami
TX IAH Houston
MA BOS Boston
MN MSP Minneapolis
MI DTW Detroit
FL FLL Fort Lauderdale
NY LGA New York
PA PHL Philadelphia
MD BWI Glen Burnie
UT SLC Salt Lake City
VA DCA Arlington
CA SAN San Diego
VA IAD Dulles
IL MDW Chicago
HI HNL Honolulu
FL TPA Tampa
OR PDX Portland
Large Hub Primary
....
Medium Primary
TX DAL Dallas
MO STL St. Louis
TN BNA Nashville
TX AUS Austin
TX HOU Houston
CA OAK Oakland
CA SJC San Jose
LA MSY Metairie
NC RDU Raleigh
MO MCI Kansas City
CA SMF Sacramento
CA SNA Santa Ana
OH CLE Cleveland
TX SAT San Antonio
FL RSW Fort Myers
IN IND Indianapolis
PA PIT Pittsburgh
PR SJU San Juan
KY CVG Greater Cincinnati International Airport
OH CMH Columbus
HI OGG Kahului
WI MKE Milwaukee
CT BDL Windsor Locks
FL PBI West Palm Beach
FL JAX Jacksonville
AK ANC Anchorage
NM ABQ Albuquerque
CA BUR Burbank
NY BUF Buffalo
CA ONT Ontario
NE OMA Omaha


The list, is it in the order of how much % of total US traffic they carry? If so, then goes to underline my surpise and/or question that i asked in the other post about DEN. In this list it figures at #5 (understandably so since it is a major UA hub) but it has a woefully weak and embarassing international connectivity for a #5 hub. One would imagine & have thought that (being a strong UA & *A hub) that they would be connected to Asia (ICN,HKG,PEK) + Europe(LHR,FRA,CDG,ZRH) + MiddleEast(DXB at least if not all the ME3 hubs) + South Asia(DEL? maybe?) to name a few and perhaps SYD?
 
PVD757
Posts: 3229
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:23 pm

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:14 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
The SBN MSA is coming back thanks to an original GRR initiative called Project Propel that encourages local airport use. The airport is showing a 27% increase in enplanements and should serve just about 450,000 passengers this year and that's not even counting any new International service.


Airports designated by the FAA as LARGE and MEDIUM carry almost 90% of traffic in the USA. It is difficult to imagine TATL to a "small" airport. I realize that it has been done. Look at Stewart NY!

GA ATL Atlanta
CA LAX Los Angeles
IL ORD Chicago
TX DFW Fort Worth
CO DEN Denver
NY JFK New York
CA SFO San Francisco International Airport
NV LAS Las Vegas
WA SEA Seattle
NC CLT Charlotte
NJ EWR Newark
FL MCO Orlando
AZ PHX Phoenix
FL MIA Miami
TX IAH Houston
MA BOS Boston
MN MSP Minneapolis
MI DTW Detroit
FL FLL Fort Lauderdale
NY LGA New York
PA PHL Philadelphia
MD BWI Glen Burnie
UT SLC Salt Lake City
VA DCA Arlington
CA SAN San Diego
VA IAD Dulles
IL MDW Chicago
HI HNL Honolulu
FL TPA Tampa
OR PDX Portland
Large Hub Primary
....
Medium Primary
TX DAL Dallas
MO STL St. Louis
TN BNA Nashville
TX AUS Austin
TX HOU Houston
CA OAK Oakland
CA SJC San Jose
LA MSY Metairie
NC RDU Raleigh
MO MCI Kansas City
CA SMF Sacramento
CA SNA Santa Ana
OH CLE Cleveland
TX SAT San Antonio
FL RSW Fort Myers
IN IND Indianapolis
PA PIT Pittsburgh
PR SJU San Juan
KY CVG Greater Cincinnati International Airport
OH CMH Columbus
HI OGG Kahului
WI MKE Milwaukee
CT BDL Windsor Locks
FL PBI West Palm Beach
FL JAX Jacksonville
AK ANC Anchorage
NM ABQ Albuquerque
CA BUR Burbank
NY BUF Buffalo
CA ONT Ontario
NE OMA Omaha


A slight drawback of looking at this list at face value is it doesn’t necessarily represent potential. I know PVD and think it is a good example. The Providence MSA is the 39th largest in the USA yet PVD is the 64th largest airport by enplanements. The BOS MSA is 4-5 times larger yet has 10-11 times more enplanements. At a 2 hour drive, PVD has more residents surrounding it than BOS does yet the capacity is placed at BOS. PVD has the potential to carry a larger share of the 45 million combined passengers. Each 1% of that is 450,000 passengers so we’re only talking 1-2% more. London and Paris are the top markets from the region to Europe, there is no reason that 100% of the trafic has to use BOS when PVD is 55 miles down the highway.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 4152
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:27 pm

PVD757 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
The SBN MSA is coming back thanks to an original GRR initiative called Project Propel that encourages local airport use. The airport is showing a 27% increase in enplanements and should serve just about 450,000 passengers this year and that's not even counting any new International service.


Airports designated by the FAA as LARGE and MEDIUM carry almost 90% of traffic in the USA. It is difficult to imagine TATL to a "small" airport. I realize that it has been done. Look at Stewart NY!

GA ATL Atlanta
CA LAX Los Angeles
IL ORD Chicago
TX DFW Fort Worth
CO DEN Denver
NY JFK New York
CA SFO San Francisco International Airport
NV LAS Las Vegas
WA SEA Seattle
NC CLT Charlotte
NJ EWR Newark
FL MCO Orlando
AZ PHX Phoenix
FL MIA Miami
TX IAH Houston
MA BOS Boston
MN MSP Minneapolis
MI DTW Detroit
FL FLL Fort Lauderdale
NY LGA New York
PA PHL Philadelphia
MD BWI Glen Burnie
UT SLC Salt Lake City
VA DCA Arlington
CA SAN San Diego
VA IAD Dulles
IL MDW Chicago
HI HNL Honolulu
FL TPA Tampa
OR PDX Portland
Large Hub Primary
....
Medium Primary
TX DAL Dallas
MO STL St. Louis
TN BNA Nashville
TX AUS Austin
TX HOU Houston
CA OAK Oakland
CA SJC San Jose
LA MSY Metairie
NC RDU Raleigh
MO MCI Kansas City
CA SMF Sacramento
CA SNA Santa Ana
OH CLE Cleveland
TX SAT San Antonio
FL RSW Fort Myers
IN IND Indianapolis
PA PIT Pittsburgh
PR SJU San Juan
KY CVG Greater Cincinnati International Airport
OH CMH Columbus
HI OGG Kahului
WI MKE Milwaukee
CT BDL Windsor Locks
FL PBI West Palm Beach
FL JAX Jacksonville
AK ANC Anchorage
NM ABQ Albuquerque
CA BUR Burbank
NY BUF Buffalo
CA ONT Ontario
NE OMA Omaha


A slight drawback of looking at this list at face value is it doesn’t necessarily represent potential. I know PVD and think it is a good example. The Providence MSA is the 39th largest in the USA yet PVD is the 64th largest airport by enplanements. The BOS MSA is 4-5 times larger yet has 10-11 times more enplanements. At a 2 hour drive, PVD has more residents surrounding it than BOS does yet the capacity is placed at BOS. PVD has the potential to carry a larger share of the 45 million combined passengers. Each 1% of that is 450,000 passengers so we’re only talking 1-2% more. London and Paris are the top markets from the region to Europe, there is no reason that 100% of the trafic has to use BOS when PVD is 55 miles down the highway.


2 hour drive time from PVD to BOS is quite generous, even accounting for traffic. I just drove it a couple weeks ago in around an hour
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PVD757
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:22 pm

^sorry fo any confusion, I’m not saying it is a two hour drive between airports, rather in a two hour drive time from either airport, there is an equal amount of residents.
 
Dominion301
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:04 am

enilria wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Boyd suggested BA via LHR as a candidate. Maybe Aer Lingus? Likely there are others and they are not ULCC but network carriers....therefor support one of the drivers: "through hub feed...aka beyond LHR; FRA; CDG; AMS etc"

Not sure why STL is not on the list; the list is Boyd's not mine

Here's the problem, Level and Aer Lingus exist to stop Norwegian. They have succeeded. Eurowings existed to stop AirBerlin, it succeeded and now it is folding up. I expect IAG to stop the rapid expansion of these LCC brands as well. I don't like it, but history says that is what will happen.

Unless somebody else comes to the party I think it's over in terms of markets like PVD/SWF getting new Atlantic service. The legacies have nothing to gain from this if competition isn't forcing it.


Are Lingus is also quickly becoming IAG’s LHR reliever hub and also serves the large North American Irish heritage diaspora.

avtcle wrote:
Ultimately confused why Boyd did not include Cleveland on the list, especially considering that 57,000 passengers utilized flights between Cleveland and Reykjavik-Keflavik in 2018 — an impressive figure. CLE has statistical proof that strong demand exists yet it wasn’t included. Odd. :?:


I bet CLE and STL were excluded as they had tat’l while Boyd’s company were writing their report.

I agree predicting BNA, AUS, IND getting tat’l sooner or later was inevitable and a no-brainer. Let’s see how long the likes of SDF and GRR wait for Europe.

This list has the assumption of LHR’s 3rd runway getting built all over it.

Does Boyd ever make any non-US predictions?

UPNYGuy wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
UPNYGuy wrote:
ALB couldn’t even sustain a B1900 for international service on Air Canada. I


To be fair, they had a good 13 year run of service, and all Northeastern US cities that had B1900 service to YYZ eventually lost service.


BDL was upgauged to a dash when it was originally on a 1900. Beech dropped, dash comes in. If my memory serves me correctly (and it doesn’t always) BDL was one of the only 1900 transborder outstations that got upgauged though.


Historically YYZ-BDL was almost always a DH8. YUL-BDL was the true upgauge and non-cut, and up to a DH3 at that
, as all the DH1s are now at YYZ.
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:47 am

PacoMartin wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out.


Could it be that most of the cities are possibly within range using a B737-8MAX, A321neo, A321LR, and A321XLR?

nautical miles from LHR
2832 MHT
2875 PVD
2922 ALB
3231 ORF
3247 RIC
3320 GRR
3344 CMH
3443 CVG
3516 SDF
3607 SAV
3693 JAX
3793 MEM


I'm not sure any airline would use such valuable slots at LHR from these cities, with maybe one or two exceptions.
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WaywardMemphian
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:27 am

I'm, as someone who spends time in and flys out of MEM, would welcome Aer Lingus if it isn't BA via LHR or even LGW. Aer Lingus connects most major European cities and it also opens up(for those of us that don't mind using the likes of RyanAir) most everywhere else. Plus... it has tsa preclearance.

MEM-DUB is 3,553nm likely doable with the A321LR and/or XLR
 
DCA-ROCguy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:01 am

Andy33 wrote:
DCA-ROCguy wrote:
Level and Eurowings fly / flew jumbos across the Atlantic, right?
Jim

Wrong!
Neither has ever operated a 747 or larger. Level's transatlantic service is entirely operated by A330s. Now there was an IAG operation out of Paris-Orly called Openskies that used 757s and a 767 on Paris-NYC routes, this got folded into Level and new A330s arrived to replace the fleet. Level's flights from Barcelona have always been A330.
Eurowings transatlantic flights are A330 and A340, they've never had any other longhaul planes.


Jumbo jets are those with two aisles. A330's, A340's, and 767's have two aisles.

What is it with people being shouty and in your face here? "Wrong!" Take a nice afternoon at the beach and chill.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
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stl07
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:25 am

DCA-ROCguy wrote:
Andy33 wrote:
DCA-ROCguy wrote:
Level and Eurowings fly / flew jumbos across the Atlantic, right?
Jim

Wrong!
Neither has ever operated a 747 or larger. Level's transatlantic service is entirely operated by A330s. Now there was an IAG operation out of Paris-Orly called Openskies that used 757s and a 767 on Paris-NYC routes, this got folded into Level and new A330s arrived to replace the fleet. Level's flights from Barcelona have always been A330.
Eurowings transatlantic flights are A330 and A340, they've never had any other longhaul planes.


Jumbo jets are those with two aisles. A330's, A340's, and 767's have two aisles.

What is it with people being shouty and in your face here? "Wrong!" Take a nice afternoon at the beach and chill.

Jim

"The biggest wide-body aircraft are known as jumbo jets due to their very large size; examples include the Boeing 747 ("jumbo jet"), Airbus A380 ("superjumbo jet"), and upcoming Boeing 777X ("mini jumbo jet").[9][10] The phrase "jumbo jet" derives from Jumbo, a circus elephant in the 19th century."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide-body_aircraft

But yes, everyone here is always ready to criticize and point out flaws
Interesting how every thread is spammed with "bring back paid membership, there are too many spammers"
 
goCOgo
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:22 am

portcolumbus wrote:
greenair727 wrote:
portcolumbus wrote:
The 3 C's of Ohio are virtually identical in terms of GDP. They're #28, 29 and 30.


Really?

2017 (latest data available; source: BEA.gov]

1. Cleveland: $212B
2. Cincinnati: $179B
3. Columbus: $136B

....so Cleveland is more than 1.5x larger than Columbus. MSA boundaries are known to be very inaccurate. But it doesn't matter--we're talking air markets. For CLE, this includes the MSAs of CLE, Akron, Canton, and Youngstown; for CMH--Columbus MSA; for CVG: Cincinnati and Dayton MSAs.

Source bea.gov


I'm sure you're right, but this is from the BEA site. What am I missing?

Image


What you are missing is Cleveland does not only serve the Cleveland MSA, it also serves the Akron/Canton and Youngstown MSAs, and Cincinnati also serves the Dayton MSA. Columbus essentially only serves the Columbus MSA.
"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
 
CMHtraveler
Posts: 104
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:31 pm

goCOgo wrote:
portcolumbus wrote:
greenair727 wrote:

Really?

2017 (latest data available; source: BEA.gov]

1. Cleveland: $212B
2. Cincinnati: $179B
3. Columbus: $136B

....so Cleveland is more than 1.5x larger than Columbus. MSA boundaries are known to be very inaccurate. But it doesn't matter--we're talking air markets. For CLE, this includes the MSAs of CLE, Akron, Canton, and Youngstown; for CMH--Columbus MSA; for CVG: Cincinnati and Dayton MSAs.

Source bea.gov


I'm sure you're right, but this is from the BEA site. What am I missing?

Image


What you are missing is Cleveland does not only serve the Cleveland MSA, it also serves the Akron/Canton and Youngstown MSAs, and Cincinnati also serves the Dayton MSA. Columbus essentially only serves the Columbus MSA.


Yes, you’re referencing Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs). The Census Bureau also tracks these statistics.

Population change by CSA (2010-2018):

CLE (Cleveland/Akron/Canton): -0.85%
CVG (Cincinnati/Wilmington/Maysville): +3.41%
CMH (Columbus/Marion/Zanesville) +8.72%

I would argue that this kind of population trend data matters even more when an airline is looking at an airport like CMH which relies almost exclusively on O&D traffic, as opposed to CLE and CVG with their diminished but still significant UA and DL focus city/hub-let activity.
 
Bluegrass60
Topic Author
Posts: 348
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:59 pm

Here is a neat little tool: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/mappi ... st/pes-v3/

Pick your location and draw a circle with whatever radius you want to see current and projected populations.
 
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enilria
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:05 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
Are Lingus is also quickly becoming IAG’s LHR reliever hub and also serves the large North American Irish heritage diaspora.

LHR only needs a reliever because LCCs are pressuring fares and driving up demand. If they all die it will cost $2k to fly to Europe and back. LHR won't need a reliever. EI has always carried the Irish heritage diaspora, but the import of Irish into America has slowed to nearly nothing and the data shows that the more generations your family has been in America the less likely you go to a heritage destination. Most of the recent growth to Ireland has been fare-driven and just general tourism.

Bottom line, LCCs go away, fares go up, EI's growth will eventually go away. Hopefully another LCC/ULCC comes along for the Atlantic.
 
FCOTSTW
Posts: 180
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:11 pm

Coronado990 wrote:
Ok...GRR would really be a strange one. What's the reasoning there?


Agree. Great way to rack attendance to that convention, by imagining the unimaginable.
Filling a TATL from GRR is totally insane. ORD, a major national airport, is only one hour away and it would be pretty hard to convince people to pay premium prices for something they can get at a discount by driving an hour away.
 
Bluegrass60
Topic Author
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:31 pm

FCOTSW - GRR is 3+ hours by car to ORD...2 1/2 hours by car to DTW. Today the GRR pax can get to Europe from GRR via a hub or drive to ORD/DTW to catch a flight. GRR is included in the Boyd 12 because it has > 3M pax/yr today; has pretty decent ground connections via highway/interstates; has EU investment in the area/region; tourism...Lake Michigan has beautiful beaches/topography and is reachable from EU via newer/more fuel efficient aircraft. It is only unimaginable if anchored to the old ways of route selection.
 
PHLCVGAMTK
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:56 pm

enilria wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Are Lingus is also quickly becoming IAG’s LHR reliever hub and also serves the large North American Irish heritage diaspora.

LHR only needs a reliever because LCCs are pressuring fares and driving up demand. If they all die it will cost $2k to fly to Europe and back. LHR won't need a reliever. EI has always carried the Irish heritage diaspora, but the import of Irish into America has slowed to nearly nothing and the data shows that the more generations your family has been in America the less likely you go to a heritage destination. Most of the recent growth to Ireland has been fare-driven and just general tourism.

Bottom line, LCCs go away, fares go up, EI's growth will eventually go away. Hopefully another LCC/ULCC comes along for the Atlantic.


I don't think this tracks. LHR slots are expensive because LHR has genuine capacity constraints, not because of LCCs. EI has already fought off Norwegian at BDL, and BDL-DUB is in no danger of going anywhere, even at full-service prices. IAG ordering 14+14 A321XLRs indicates that they think there are more destinations in the northeastern US that can support a (specialized!) narrowbody TATL, but unless and until LHR has a third runway, there's no way a NB flight is going to have a peak-hour LHR slot burned on it. Medium-sized airports with just enough demand for one NB TATL isn't a license to print money by itself, but it's plenty to be creating a business model with. Ask FI how they do it on an island with a tenth of the population, and without the capital resources of being part of IAG!

I agree that the diaspora is a negligible part of EI's growth in the US. The growth of the Irish economy in general, and the location of multiple European HQs of American firms in Dublin has done far more.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:01 pm

stl07 wrote:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide-body_aircraft
But yes, everyone here is always ready to criticize and point out flaws


I can't remember having ever read discussion before now, saying that the word jumbo doesn't refer to all widebody aircraft. I've been in the hobby for decades.

Respectful source-finding like yours is always welcome and helpful.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
goCOgo
Posts: 706
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:36 pm

CMHtraveler wrote:
goCOgo wrote:
portcolumbus wrote:

I'm sure you're right, but this is from the BEA site. What am I missing?

Image


What you are missing is Cleveland does not only serve the Cleveland MSA, it also serves the Akron/Canton and Youngstown MSAs, and Cincinnati also serves the Dayton MSA. Columbus essentially only serves the Columbus MSA.


Yes, you’re referencing Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs). The Census Bureau also tracks these statistics.

Population change by CSA (2010-2018):

CLE (Cleveland/Akron/Canton): -0.85%
CVG (Cincinnati/Wilmington/Maysville): +3.41%
CMH (Columbus/Marion/Zanesville) +8.72%

I would argue that this kind of population trend data matters even more when an airline is looking at an airport like CMH which relies almost exclusively on O&D traffic, as opposed to CLE and CVG with their diminished but still significant UA and DL focus city/hub-let activity.


Moving the goalposts. The issue was GDP per catchment area. But no matter.

Population trends are meaningless. They need to get butts in seats now. They will worry about service a decade from now a decade from now.

In any event, Cleveland still has Columbus beat by a million people. CSA population is as follows:

1. Cleveland-Akron-Canton - 3.6M (#17 nationally)
2. Columbus-Marion-Zanesville - 2.5M (#26 nationally)
3. Cincinnati-Wilmington-Maysville - 2.3M (#30 nationally)
"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 6:54 pm

goCOgo wrote:
CMHtraveler wrote:
goCOgo wrote:

What you are missing is Cleveland does not only serve the Cleveland MSA, it also serves the Akron/Canton and Youngstown MSAs, and Cincinnati also serves the Dayton MSA. Columbus essentially only serves the Columbus MSA.


Yes, you’re referencing Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs). The Census Bureau also tracks these statistics.

Population change by CSA (2010-2018):

CLE (Cleveland/Akron/Canton): -0.85%
CVG (Cincinnati/Wilmington/Maysville): +3.41%
CMH (Columbus/Marion/Zanesville) +8.72%

I would argue that this kind of population trend data matters even more when an airline is looking at an airport like CMH which relies almost exclusively on O&D traffic, as opposed to CLE and CVG with their diminished but still significant UA and DL focus city/hub-let activity.


Moving the goalposts. The issue was GDP per catchment area. But no matter.

Population trends are meaningless. They need to get butts in seats now. They will worry about service a decade from now a decade from now.

In any event, Cleveland still has Columbus beat by a million people. CSA population is as follows:

1. Cleveland-Akron-Canton - 3.6M (#17 nationally)
2. Columbus-Marion-Zanesville - 2.5M (#26 nationally)
3. Cincinnati-Wilmington-Maysville - 2.3M (#30 nationally)


I don’t know that trajectories are meaningless. The upward trend in passengers is likely at least part of the reason BNA got BA before other, likely larger, markets.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
CMHtraveler
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 7:08 pm

goCOgo wrote:
CMHtraveler wrote:
goCOgo wrote:

What you are missing is Cleveland does not only serve the Cleveland MSA, it also serves the Akron/Canton and Youngstown MSAs, and Cincinnati also serves the Dayton MSA. Columbus essentially only serves the Columbus MSA.


Yes, you’re referencing Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs). The Census Bureau also tracks these statistics.

Population change by CSA (2010-2018):

CLE (Cleveland/Akron/Canton): -0.85%
CVG (Cincinnati/Wilmington/Maysville): +3.41%
CMH (Columbus/Marion/Zanesville) +8.72%

I would argue that this kind of population trend data matters even more when an airline is looking at an airport like CMH which relies almost exclusively on O&D traffic, as opposed to CLE and CVG with their diminished but still significant UA and DL focus city/hub-let activity.


Moving the goalposts. The issue was GDP per catchment area. But no matter.

Population trends are meaningless. They need to get butts in seats now. They will worry about service a decade from now a decade from now.

In any event, Cleveland still has Columbus beat by a million people. CSA population is as follows:

1. Cleveland-Akron-Canton - 3.6M (#17 nationally)
2. Columbus-Marion-Zanesville - 2.5M (#26 nationally)
3. Cincinnati-Wilmington-Maysville - 2.3M (#30 nationally)


Population trends are meaningless? Are you sure?

In any case, if you read up the thread, you’ll see that I’m generally opposed to chasing TATL until service can be supported without incentives (read: public tax dollars). If an airline decides CLE can support it, great! If they decide CMH can support it, also great! Same for CVG. Just trying to inform the discussion with some data comparing apples to apples, since you brought up the issue of adjacent MSAs.
 
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flyPIT
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 7:33 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
I don’t know that trajectories are meaningless. The upward trend in passengers is likely at least part of the reason BNA got BA before other, likely larger, markets.

Agreed; BA looks to serve their new markets for the long term.
FLYi
 
uconn99
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:10 pm

FCOTSTW wrote:
Coronado990 wrote:
Ok...GRR would really be a strange one. What's the reasoning there?


Agree. Great way to rack attendance to that convention, by imagining the unimaginable.
Filling a TATL from GRR is totally insane. ORD, a major national airport, is only one hour away and it would be pretty hard to convince people to pay premium prices for something they can get at a discount by driving an hour away.


I don't believe GRR will get TATL anytime soon however GRR to ORD is more like a 3.5 hour drive. DTW is also around 2+ hours by car.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:15 am

747megatop wrote:
PhilMcCrackin wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:

Both of these airports have the disadvantage of being a 'hot and high' airport, meaning that payloads are restricted. Therefor they're not the most ideal airports for long haul flights.

Also for Phoenix I've heard that this city has one of the lowest incomes per capita in the region, meaning people got less money to spend. That would likely reduce the demand for air travel and certainly long haul air travel. If people don't have the money for it, they don't fly. Simple as that.


For starters, PHX isn't high. It also has an 11,500 ft runway which should alleviate any performance concerns. Condor operates a 767-300 in a leisure configuration out of PHX to FRA and they don't seem to have any problems. I can't imagine anything more modern with significantly better performance like an A332/777/787/A350 would have any performance problems out of PHX.

There's plenty of big business moving into the PHX valley and Maricopa county is the quickest growing county in the country. The demand is there, which is why Condor has expanded service and AA/BA have gone double daily. I think it's only a matter of time until LH starts up PHX, although I do think the A333 isn't an ideal aircraft to start a route with.

Aren't aircraft like the 787 that serve long thin routes the ideal ones to have more TATL and TPAC connectivity out of DEN and PHX? The reason i keep bringing these cities up is because i would imagine they would have more TATL service than they currently have before airlines start looking at those cities that are mentioned in the beginning of this thread.


I can't speak for DEN, but PHX has limited appeal. I could see a KLM or a LH making a go at it, but I do think appeal beyond that is limited. Maybe a JAL could make a go of it with a 787 being a OW hub, but other than that, ehh. The problem with LH, as I eluded to is, their smallest aircraft with the range to make it is an A333.
 
IrishLessor
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:28 am

enilria wrote:
DalRiada wrote:
enilria wrote:
I could say the same about your comments. Trust me.


You could be right. But with the fairly rapid expansion of EI’s long haul fleet (narrow and wide body) due to continue over the next few years, I don’t think you can say that EI will be wound up and I don’t see what brand it would be rolled into. Whilst LHR is capacity constrained, it will also remain useful for IAG to get regional U.K. pax onto IAG TATL services.

Fleet plans can change VERY quickly. IAG sees EI and Level as their internal LCCs to take on mostly Norwegian. I don't think EI is really an LCC, but perhaps they think relative to BA and IB it is an LCC. Whatever the case, they can very easily divert those planes to another unit and retire older planes so that capacity is more flat. So the fleet plan means little. I think it really comes down to what happens with the remaining LCCs on the Atlantic. It's possible B6 will be enough to keep IAG interested in this side of the business, but I don't think B6 is really going to be offering LCC pricing. I think it'll be more like $1k RT from BOS/JFK to Europe in coach which is cheap-ER, but not cheap at the level that Norwegian or WW or the other failed carriers were at. I'm not sure that pricing level is so threatening that IAG will feel the need to keep up the capacity pressure. Same with FI. With WW now gone I see them also slowing their growth. Again, I don't like any of this, but this is what you do when competition goes away. You stop growing capacity and grow RASM/profits instead.

Looking at Level's performance, I think the knife falls there very soon after Norwegian makes clear how much the new CEO is going to pull back the growth on Atlantic.


Hi DalRiada,
Weekend greetings!
I'd strongly disagree that IAG see Aer Lingus as their LCC to take on Norwegian, Level is a different matter.

IAG pursued Aer Lingus for a variety of reasons, and long before Norwegian became really topical. These reasons include things such as excellent location on the transatlantic map, lean cost base and more strategically the ability for Dublin to link the UK regions with north America, thus taking pressure off LHR. Under IAG Aer Lingus has clearly defined itself as a value carrier and not as distinct from an LCC. During Norwegian's time in Ireland Aer Lingus has been more successful than ever. Ireland is booming and in terms of business traffic as well connecting services over Dublin (into UK and EI) and through the US gateways (UA, B6) - these put Aer Lingus in a much different arena to Norwegian. So much so Norwegian is of little consequence.

Aer Lingus also comfortably responded to Norwegian when it entered the fray, by introducing unbundled fares and competitive types of fares to be defend its patch.

The diaspora continues to be a strong driver in the Aer Lingus TA business, and an important part of the business. This diaspora is strong and all carriers to Ireland see huge benefits in this space. You can see the enormity of transatlantic services every day to an island of circa only 6.25M inhabitants ... so VFR is growing an important.

Level is another story entirely, and I'd agree with you that IAG see that as the vehicle to challenge Norwegian. I'd go as far as saying that is very v much on hold and in limbo until the Norwegian puzzle is clearer through an IAG lens.

Moreover, it seems and Willie Walsh has said as much publically; LCC on the long haul has been proven, it's going to be around, though Norwegian is loss, making they've proven that demand exists and if their model can be fine tuned it'll work. Little wonder Lufthansa group and IAG have been sniffing around it.
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 392
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:55 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
The SBN MSA is coming back thanks to an original GRR initiative called Project Propel that encourages local airport use. The airport is showing a 27% increase in enplanements and should serve just about 450,000 passengers this year and that's not even counting any new International service.


Airports designated by the FAA as LARGE and MEDIUM carry almost 90% of traffic in the USA. It is difficult to imagine TATL to a "small" airport. I realize that it has been done. Look at Stewart NY!

GA ATL Atlanta
CA LAX Los Angeles
IL ORD Chicago
TX DFW Fort Worth
CO DEN Denver
NY JFK New York
CA SFO San Francisco International Airport
NV LAS Las Vegas
WA SEA Seattle
NC CLT Charlotte
NJ EWR Newark
FL MCO Orlando
AZ PHX Phoenix
FL MIA Miami
TX IAH Houston
MA BOS Boston
MN MSP Minneapolis
MI DTW Detroit
FL FLL Fort Lauderdale
NY LGA New York
PA PHL Philadelphia
MD BWI Glen Burnie
UT SLC Salt Lake City
VA DCA Arlington
CA SAN San Diego
VA IAD Dulles
IL MDW Chicago
HI HNL Honolulu
FL TPA Tampa
OR PDX Portland
Large Hub Primary
....
Medium Primary
TX DAL Dallas
MO STL St. Louis
TN BNA Nashville
TX AUS Austin
TX HOU Houston
CA OAK Oakland
CA SJC San Jose
LA MSY Metairie
NC RDU Raleigh
MO MCI Kansas City
CA SMF Sacramento
CA SNA Santa Ana
OH CLE Cleveland
TX SAT San Antonio
FL RSW Fort Myers
IN IND Indianapolis
PA PIT Pittsburgh
PR SJU San Juan
KY CVG Greater Cincinnati International Airport
OH CMH Columbus
HI OGG Kahului
WI MKE Milwaukee
CT BDL Windsor Locks
FL PBI West Palm Beach
FL JAX Jacksonville
AK ANC Anchorage
NM ABQ Albuquerque
CA BUR Burbank
NY BUF Buffalo
CA ONT Ontario
NE OMA Omaha


Buffalo (my home airport) would be an interesting one ..... the real question would be for that airport is. How many Canadians would come over the boarder and fly out of BNIA? Also Toronto Pearson has some decently low prices already to Europe. How could the airline / Buffalo be competitive with Pearson?

Also the MAX or A321 make the hope across the pond? I am not sure if it could make it.

Buffalo does get about 40% or little more now Canadians flying out of it for US Domestic flights right now.
 
afcjets
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:42 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:

Memphis has riverboats, air cargo, big time music tourism interest, bbq lore, basically a new concourse on the way, global entry already on site ect, ect, ect.

There is the made famous by Arlo Guthrie "City of New Orleans" Amtrak service. Sadly no such service to Nashville.

You make a good point about the Whiskey trail.

Louisville could compliment Existing Nashville service much like Memphis for one direction travelers. However, being just back from Europe, Jack Daneils is the big American name there and that is basically a Tennesee thing that can easily be done between Nashville and Memphis. Make sure you book a dinner at Mrs. Mary's way in advance.

As for ground hubbing, there's the Little Rock MSA, North Ark, Mo. Boothill, Tupelo/North MS. I believe there's around 4 million within a 3 hr drive of Memphis and someone like me in XNA, MEM is as close as Dallas if I want to park in a long term lot and not connect.

Birmingham is between MEM/ATL and Jackson MS is between MEM/MSY


I am surprised you didn't point out Memphis has already had service. It was either KL or NW to AMS. I thought it was KL with the MD11 or NW with the 744 but I may be confusing their 744 MEM-DTW or MSP.

I landed their about five years ago and was surprised how from above it looked like a city which hadn't built anything in decades. It's definitely a city that was more important in the past when being on the Mississippi River was a big deal.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:10 pm

afcjets wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:

Memphis has riverboats, air cargo, big time music tourism interest, bbq lore, basically a new concourse on the way, global entry already on site ect, ect, ect.

There is the made famous by Arlo Guthrie "City of New Orleans" Amtrak service. Sadly no such service to Nashville.

You make a good point about the Whiskey trail.

Louisville could compliment Existing Nashville service much like Memphis for one direction travelers. However, being just back from Europe, Jack Daneils is the big American name there and that is basically a Tennesee thing that can easily be done between Nashville and Memphis. Make sure you book a dinner at Mrs. Mary's way in advance.

As for ground hubbing, there's the Little Rock MSA, North Ark, Mo. Boothill, Tupelo/North MS. I believe there's around 4 million within a 3 hr drive of Memphis and someone like me in XNA, MEM is as close as Dallas if I want to park in a long term lot and not connect.

Birmingham is between MEM/ATL and Jackson MS is between MEM/MSY


I am surprised you didn't point out Memphis has already had service. It was either KL or NW to AMS. I thought it was KL with the MD11 or NW with the 744 but I may be confusing their 744 MEM-DTW or MSP.

I landed their about five years ago and was surprised how from above it looked like a city which hadn't built anything in decades. It's definitely a city that was more important in the past when being on the Mississippi River was a big deal.


That was during NW/Delta hub days, Memphis is a different type of airport now.


Lots has happens in 5 years Memphis but the big push for downtown Memphis is just really now starting with billions of development in the pipeline. The Union Row development is massive. FedEx is going to be tennent in a new office tower off Beale. There's over 2,00 hotel rooms under consteuct downtown.
 
afcjets
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:16 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
afcjets wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:

Memphis has riverboats, air cargo, big time music tourism interest, bbq lore, basically a new concourse on the way, global entry already on site ect, ect, ect.

There is the made famous by Arlo Guthrie "City of New Orleans" Amtrak service. Sadly no such service to Nashville.

You make a good point about the Whiskey trail.

Louisville could compliment Existing Nashville service much like Memphis for one direction travelers. However, being just back from Europe, Jack Daneils is the big American name there and that is basically a Tennesee thing that can easily be done between Nashville and Memphis. Make sure you book a dinner at Mrs. Mary's way in advance.

As for ground hubbing, there's the Little Rock MSA, North Ark, Mo. Boothill, Tupelo/North MS. I believe there's around 4 million within a 3 hr drive of Memphis and someone like me in XNA, MEM is as close as Dallas if I want to park in a long term lot and not connect.

Birmingham is between MEM/ATL and Jackson MS is between MEM/MSY


I am surprised you didn't point out Memphis has already had service. It was either KL or NW to AMS. I thought it was KL with the MD11 or NW with the 744 but I may be confusing their 744 MEM-DTW or MSP.

I landed their about five years ago and was surprised how from above it looked like a city which hadn't built anything in decades. It's definitely a city that was more important in the past when being on the Mississippi River was a big deal.


That was during NW/Delta hub days, Memphis is a different type of airport now.


Lots has happens in 5 years Memphis but the big push for downtown Memphis is just really now starting with billions of development in the pipeline. The Union Row development is massive. FedEx is going to be tennent in a new office tower off Beale. There's over 2,00 hotel rooms under consteuct downtown.


I think Delta would be the most likely airline with MEM-CDG.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:22 pm

afcjets wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
afcjets wrote:

I am surprised you didn't point out Memphis has already had service. It was either KL or NW to AMS. I thought it was KL with the MD11 or NW with the 744 but I may be confusing their 744 MEM-DTW or MSP.

I landed their about five years ago and was surprised how from above it looked like a city which hadn't built anything in decades. It's definitely a city that was more important in the past when being on the Mississippi River was a big deal.


That was during NW/Delta hub days, Memphis is a different type of airport now.


Lots has happens in 5 years Memphis but the big push for downtown Memphis is just really now starting with billions of development in the pipeline. The Union Row development is massive. FedEx is going to be tennent in a new office tower off Beale. There's over 2,00 hotel rooms under consteuct downtown.


I think Delta would be the most likely airline with MEM-CDG.



I just don't see Delta doing jack in Memphis. They haven't added anything as Memphis has grown over the past three years. I Delta had any interest in Memphis, they would have added Boston back by now.


Back to Memphis in general

https://www.curbed.com/platform/amp/201 ... 20%251%24s
 
Bluegrass60
Topic Author
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:47 pm

Wayward Memphian - thanks for posting the link. Have not been to MEM in prob 15 yrs and glad to see it is re-energizing. Always enjoyed Beale St, the Peabody and Rendevous.
 
Bluegrass60
Topic Author
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:09 pm

Boyd re-iterates: https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday-flash-2-2-2/

"Commercial centers such as Albany, Columbus and Louisville will be enjoying nonstops to key hubs in the E.U., opening new investment and commercial activity from all across Europe and Asia."

Part of the theme of Boyd's upcoming conference "Leveraging America’s Globe-Leading Aviation System"

I can't speak as to ALB or CMH or the others included in the Boyd 12 (GRR, CVG, ORF, RIC, JAX, MHT, PVD, MEM, SAV)….but SDF can speak to with some degree of intelligence. It has CSA of 1.5M and a growing economy. Tourism is growing. It is a major player in logistics with UPS Worldport. It is served by 3 major interstates and there are @8M people within 2 hours of its runways. SDF is deep into planning $100M-$200M capital improvement program which includes FIS and international gates....that should be started and completed in 2-4 years. Also of note...in that same 2 hour radius are IND, CVG and @BNA who have NS to CDG, CDG and LHR respectively; other airports in that radius are LEX, EVV, OWB and DAY. Interesting to see which of the Boyd 12 actually land TATL.
 
afcjets
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:15 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Boyd re-iterates: https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday-flash-2-2-2/

"Commercial centers such as Albany, Columbus and Louisville will be enjoying nonstops to key hubs in the E.U., opening new investment and commercial activity from all across Europe and Asia."

Part of the theme of Boyd's upcoming conference "Leveraging America’s Globe-Leading Aviation System"



I wonder if that means ALB, CMH, and SDF are his clients and if the other nine would like TATL, they better hire him.
 
Bluegrass60
Topic Author
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:23 pm

I doubt Boyd needs to get business in a way that compromises the findings of his research...that includes working with airlines, airports and airframe mfrs.
 
afcjets
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:15 am

Of course not, otherwise he wouldn't have limited it to just 12 airports.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:24 am

In other releases....STL, MCI were listed. Not sure he left out any viable candidates...
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:30 am

So many on a.net loved the aviation glory days...Like when all TATL was only from NYC.
;)
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 5:52 am

UpNAWAy wrote:
So many on a.net loved the aviation glory days...Like when all TATL was only from NYC.
;)


And when would that have been? As soon as the TATL market opened up, it opened up from multiple major airports. Even in the 1960's there was TATL from Chicago, Boston, Washington DC, Miami, etc. As aircraft range increased, major airports further west also gained TATL flights. It was never concentrated at New York City alone.

I agree TATL service into smaller airports is something new and we'll have to get used to it. The large hubs become too crowded to funnel all TATL traffic through and there is demand for direct TATL flights from smaller airports.
 
Andy33
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:13 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
So many on a.net loved the aviation glory days...Like when all TATL was only from NYC.
;)


agree TATL service into smaller airports is something new and we'll have to get used to it. The large hubs become too crowded to funnel all TATL traffic through and there is demand for direct TATL flights from smaller airports.

Isn't there a bit of an inconsistency here? Large hubs in the US become too crowded to funnel all TATL traffic through, but the answer is to provide extra flights from smaller US airports to, er, large hubs in Europe? But the large hubs in Europe are equally too crowded right now and most are severely slot-controlled. So if extra flights from the USA are justified, and I agree they are, then either the extra flights will have to go to smaller airports in Europe or some of the existing flights will have to move there. You simply aren't going to get extra flights into LHR or AMS right now without an existing flight to somewhere else (maybe shorthaul) being moved elsewhere. By doing that the utility of the hub is reduced.
And if the Boyd 12 US airports are to get TATL service, how saleable would flights to, say, DSA (Doncaster-Sheffield), PSA (Pisa), CGN (Cologne-Bonn) be instead of LHR, FCO, or FRA? Norwegian tried smaller US airports to non-hub UK airports, but hardly any of these routes survive
 
CMHMarc787
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:18 pm

Cbusflyer wrote:
greenair727 wrote:
Regarding the missing Cleveland prediction by Boyd, note that these are just his guesses. He has Columbus, Ohio on the list. But comparing CLE to CMH, Cleveland is a much larger market, both in population AND size of the economy; plus looking at the last few years, CLE GDP is growing faster than Columbus. There's also talk that the Columbus economy is cooling off, while Cleveland is suddenly rebounding quickly (and from a larger base). He may be using old data or information. I wouldn't read too much into his CMH over CLE--he appears to have missed some things there.


While all true, this is not the overall feel and trend if you actually live in Ohio. Being from Northern Ohio and now living in Columbus, the feeling between the two is quite drastic. Cleveland has the history, architecture, food, etc but it lacks the positive vibes. For everything Columbus lacks, somehow people including myself love it and more and more people are gravitating towards it from other parts of Ohio. 10 years from now, I believe Columbus will be the leader in nearly every category.


Population forecasts are for Frankin County (Columbus) and all surrounding counties to significantly grow over the next 5/10/20/30 years, while those of Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) and all their surrounding are trending downwards.

Add to this a growing number of corporations setting up operations here (led by high-tech and distribution), a significant increase in the number of hotels designed to attract more national conventions and international events, the quickest growing fashion design destination in the United States (currently in the top-5 according to major fashion experts and publications), and rapid development of tourism-centered attractions, makes CMH an ever-increasingly attractive location for TATL flights.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:37 pm

enilria wrote:
I like Boyd, but what airline is left to add these? The ULCCs are all but dead across the Atlantic. Norwegian just said they are going to curtail growth.


Sort of cross-posting from the DL focus city/AF/KL thread, but both sides have confirmed CMH has been talking to DL. AMS would be within 757 range.

For what it's worth, CRAA's board minutes for this month indicate they're investigating adding Global Entry to CMH's FIS.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B717/722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:16 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
I doubt Boyd needs to get business in a way that compromises the findings of his research...that includes working with airlines, airports and airframe mfrs.


One would hope not, but he has given both a list of airports and a target date - 2025. Some of those seem really, really unlikely to me given the struggles of ULCC TATL carriers.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:17 pm

Which do you believe to be really, really unlikely...and why?
 
kaitak
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:40 pm

IrishLessor wrote:
enilria wrote:
DalRiada wrote:

You could be right. But with the fairly rapid expansion of EI’s long haul fleet (narrow and wide body) due to continue over the next few years, I don’t think you can say that EI will be wound up and I don’t see what brand it would be rolled into. Whilst LHR is capacity constrained, it will also remain useful for IAG to get regional U.K. pax onto IAG TATL services.

Fleet plans can change VERY quickly. IAG sees EI and Level as their internal LCCs to take on mostly Norwegian. I don't think EI is really an LCC, but perhaps they think relative to BA and IB it is an LCC. Whatever the case, they can very easily divert those planes to another unit and retire older planes so that capacity is more flat. So the fleet plan means little. I think it really comes down to what happens with the remaining LCCs on the Atlantic. It's possible B6 will be enough to keep IAG interested in this side of the business, but I don't think B6 is really going to be offering LCC pricing. I think it'll be more like $1k RT from BOS/JFK to Europe in coach which is cheap-ER, but not cheap at the level that Norwegian or WW or the other failed carriers were at. I'm not sure that pricing level is so threatening that IAG will feel the need to keep up the capacity pressure. Same with FI. With WW now gone I see them also slowing their growth. Again, I don't like any of this, but this is what you do when competition goes away. You stop growing capacity and grow RASM/profits instead.

Looking at Level's performance, I think the knife falls there very soon after Norwegian makes clear how much the new CEO is going to pull back the growth on Atlantic.


Hi DalRiada,
Weekend greetings!
I'd strongly disagree that IAG see Aer Lingus as their LCC to take on Norwegian, Level is a different matter.

IAG pursued Aer Lingus for a variety of reasons, and long before Norwegian became really topical. These reasons include things such as excellent location on the transatlantic map, lean cost base and more strategically the ability for Dublin to link the UK regions with north America, thus taking pressure off LHR. Under IAG Aer Lingus has clearly defined itself as a value carrier and not as distinct from an LCC. During Norwegian's time in Ireland Aer Lingus has been more successful than ever. Ireland is booming and in terms of business traffic as well connecting services over Dublin (into UK and EI) and through the US gateways (UA, B6) - these put Aer Lingus in a much different arena to Norwegian. So much so Norwegian is of little consequence.

Aer Lingus also comfortably responded to Norwegian when it entered the fray, by introducing unbundled fares and competitive types of fares to be defend its patch.

The diaspora continues to be a strong driver in the Aer Lingus TA business, and an important part of the business. This diaspora is strong and all carriers to Ireland see huge benefits in this space. You can see the enormity of transatlantic services every day to an island of circa only 6.25M inhabitants ... so VFR is growing an important.

Level is another story entirely, and I'd agree with you that IAG see that as the vehicle to challenge Norwegian. I'd go as far as saying that is very v much on hold and in limbo until the Norwegian puzzle is clearer through an IAG lens.

Moreover, it seems and Willie Walsh has said as much publically; LCC on the long haul has been proven, it's going to be around, though Norwegian is loss, making they've proven that demand exists and if their model can be fine tuned it'll work. Little wonder Lufthansa group and IAG have been sniffing around it.


I agree with everything you say. I think the crucial point here is the geographic location. Many years ago, Ireland had a crazy aviation policy called the "Shannon stopover", which meant that all t/a flights from Dublin had to stop at SNN; it was nuts and it held back DUB - and Aer Lingus - for many years. Our US bilateral was very restrictive and our Canadian bilateral was so restrictive that for many years, there were no scheduled flights at all between the two. The Irish wanted to protect SNN, the Canadians YUL ... and airlines said "get stuffed". So, what is happening now is something that should have happened years ago. Several points now favour DUB as a hub:
- The right aircraft. EI was the first t/a carrier with the A330 some 24 years ago; it's been a big part of its success. Now the A321LR and more recently the A321LRX offer the opportunity to cover pretty much all of Canada and "The Lower 48" (even ANC too, actually) ... a range ring from DUB covers pretty much the whole of the US bar San Diego (sorry!).
- Geopolitics: as the UK has shot itself in the foot over Brexit, Ireland will be the only English speaking EU country. It's a stable place to do business, strong cultural and business links, a great place to visit whether for business of leisure, so an ideal place for anyone wanting a stop off to anywhere in Europe. Also, while the US might lock horns with France, the UK (wait for the trade talks post-Brexit) and Germany, relations with Ireland are pretty much always cordial. We are also pretty much the only country in the EU with immigration and customs pre-clearance.
- For US airports, Aer Lingus is probably the first "go to" airline. Those as yet unserved know the potential of the A321LR/LRX and they know the value of DUB as a hub. Again, as stated above, the A321LR can reach pretty much anywhere in the US from DUB. The A321 is like the tip of a spear; it is the instrument with which a new route is opened and EI will then develop it and then, in time (hopefully move to something larger, i.e. the A330), while the A321s are then used to explore new markets.

So, in summary, I don't believe that EI was intended to be IAG's weapon to fight off Norwegian; EI has advantages that DY/D8 can only dream of - natural (location) and strategic (aircraft type). I think, if anything, Level is intended as a kind of stick for other airlines in the IAG group - "if you don't meet our cost base targets, Level will come in and take over routes from you"; EI has been threatened - and remains threatened - with Level coming in and some of those A321s being transferred to Level! (It kind of reminds me of Stalin's practice of having batallions behind the front line, to shoot any of the front line troops who tried to retreat!)
 
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Coronado990
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 23, 2019 5:17 pm

[quote="kaitak"
- The right aircraft. EI was the first t/a carrier with the A330 some 24 years ago; it's been a big part of its success. Now the A321LR and more recently the A321LRX offer the opportunity to cover pretty much all of Canada and "The Lower 48" (even ANC too, actually) ... a range ring from DUB covers pretty much the whole of the US bar San Diego (sorry!).
[/quote]

That's Ok...Send us the A330!

Signed...San Diego.
We're up.

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