dcajet
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Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:19 am

Effective 6/2020, QF will withdraw the 747-400 on the SYD-SCL route, and increase the frequency to daily from the current 4x w. By the time of the new service, QF should have 14 787-9 on the fleet; six more from than from the current 8.

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... -santiago/
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Gbass21
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:32 am

So now the flight time will increase as the LA SCL-MEL because ETOPS? On the other hand, could QF send some A380 at least in high season?. I think that the 789 in the low density cabin that QF has, carries very few passengers compared to the 744. I know that they're adding more flights, but it seems to me a huge reduction per day.
 
hpff
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:41 am

By going daily on the 787, my rough calculations say QF are adding capacity from 1456 passengers/week to 1652 passengers/week. If they lose a single frequency they're below what the 747 could offer over four days, so yes a big daily reduction but overall an increase in seats. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
 
kaitak
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:40 am

Would the use of the 789 result in a significantly longer journey time, given (a) the faster speed of the 744 and (b) ETOPs issues (I'm assuming QF has 330 mins for the 789s?)?
 
alasizon
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:20 am

kaitak wrote:
Would the use of the 789 result in a significantly longer journey time, given (a) the faster speed of the 744 and (b) ETOPs issues (I'm assuming QF has 330 mins for the 789s?)?


The cruise speed difference is negligible compared with the padding that occurs due to the different wind possibilities on the crossing.
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jarlog
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:42 am

kaitak wrote:
Would the use of the 789 result in a significantly longer journey time, given (a) the faster speed of the 744 and (b) ETOPs issues (I'm assuming QF has 330 mins for the 789s?)?


The Dreamliner is not that much slower than the 747. At least when the 747 is flown economically, and believe you me in 2019 they are flown economically.
Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:24 am

hpff wrote:
By going daily on the 787, my rough calculations say QF are adding capacity from 1456 passengers/week to 1652 passengers/week. If they lose a single frequency they're below what the 747 could offer over four days, so yes a big daily reduction but overall an increase in seats. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.


I wonder what the yields and pax mix for this route is...

J capacity will increase over 26%
W capacity will increase over 36%
Y capacity will only increase around 8%

This change will result in an overall increase in premium capacity of over 30%.

I wonder if QF will consider another configuration for some of their 789.

So, very interesting indeed...
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zkncj
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:47 am

MoKa777 wrote:

I wonder if QF will consider another configuration for some of their 789.
...


That or QF could take back some of there 788s currently with JQ once there a321NEOs start coming online.

For routes that require an power J/PE count.
 
upperdeckfan
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:04 am

MoKa777 wrote:
hpff wrote:
By going daily on the 787, my rough calculations say QF are adding capacity from 1456 passengers/week to 1652 passengers/week. If they lose a single frequency they're below what the 747 could offer over four days, so yes a big daily reduction but overall an increase in seats. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.


I wonder what the yields and pax mix for this route is...

J capacity will increase over 26%
W capacity will increase over 36%
Y capacity will only increase around 8%

This change will result in an overall increase in premium capacity of over 30%.

I wonder if QF will consider another configuration for some of their 789.

So, very interesting indeed...


I bet QF knows the yield and pax mix better than us, specially after flying it for several years and they are also aware of LA's performance on the route.

Daily service is better fitted for bussiness traffic and let's not forget that QF J/W product on the 789 are better than LA's 789.
748,744,742,741,772,773,762,763,
764, 789, 732,733,735,737,738,739,
752, 722, 717,74M,DC10,DC9,M82,
M83, M87, M88,310,319,320,321,332,
333, 343, 346,359,388,L1011,CR2,
CR7, CR9,CRK, E175,E190,ATR42,
DSH8, CS1,CS3
 
x1234
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:08 am

Traffic on the direct route between South America & Australia is BOOMING due to the growing economies and the need to connect with Asia. LA in October will inaugurate SYD-SCL 3x weekly non-stop (LA802 LA803, already loaded) with the other 4x weekly via AKL like before. So total SYD-SCL capacity with LA + QF goes to 10x weekly + 4x weekly via AKL but QF has the advantage of the newer 1-2-1 business seats. There's also 3x weekly MEL-SCL on LA. Finally there's 3x weekly AKL-EZE on AirNZ which goes to 5x weekly in the summer.
 
x1234
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:13 am

It looks like the Australian regulator CASA has approved QF's application for ETOPS 330 (required for the crossing from NZ to Chile).
 
x1234
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:18 am

Looking at LATAM's timings on the direct SYD-SCL its the following with ETOPS 330:
LA802 1000 SYD 0915 SCL 13 hours 15 min (This is longer than the 12 hours 20 minutes block time for the QF 744).
LA803 0130 SCL 0615 SYD 14 hours 45 min (This is longer than the 14 hours 5 minutes block time for the QF 744).
 
x1234
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:33 pm

Also I HOPE Qantas files some competitive fares for Asia-SYD-SCL like NZ does for Asia-AKL-EZE. There is considerable Chinese investment in Chile in the natural resources and the bus system.
 
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qf789
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:33 pm

Gbass21 wrote:
So now the flight time will increase as the LA SCL-MEL because ETOPS? On the other hand, could QF send some A380 at least in high season?. I think that the 789 in the low density cabin that QF has, carries very few passengers compared to the 744. I know that they're adding more flights, but it seems to me a huge reduction per day.


No they wont send the A388 because firstly there is little flexibility in the fleet. Hypothetically if they were to send A380's to SCL frequency would need to be cut as the Australian-Chile bilateral only allows for 1816 in each direction per week

https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/aviat ... 170619.pdf

Additionally the schedule that has been published is pretty much identical to what is published now. QF27 SYD-SCL will be 5 minutes longer while QF28 SCL-SYD the schedule remains the same

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2020/
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dcajet
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:05 am

I wonder if the next 6 787-9 deliveries for QF will feature a revised configuration? The current one is quite premium heavy; and routes like SCL do not have the same passenger mix as LHR.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:46 am

dcajet wrote:
I wonder if the next 6 787-9 deliveries for QF will feature a revised configuration? The current one is quite premium heavy; and routes like SCL do not have the same passenger mix as LHR.


Same configuration, thing is the 789s will still have a lot less premium seats than the 744s but Y will drop by even more, daily 789 will offer a slight increase in seats over 4-5 weekly 744s in all classes.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:58 am

qf789 wrote:
Gbass21 wrote:
So now the flight time will increase as the LA SCL-MEL because ETOPS? On the other hand, could QF send some A380 at least in high season?. I think that the 789 in the low density cabin that QF has, carries very few passengers compared to the 744. I know that they're adding more flights, but it seems to me a huge reduction per day.


No they wont send the A388 because firstly there is little flexibility in the fleet. Hypothetically if they were to send A380's to SCL frequency would need to be cut as the Australian-Chile bilateral only allows for 1816 in each direction per week

https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/aviat ... 170619.pdf

Additionally the schedule that has been published is pretty much identical to what is published now. QF27 SYD-SCL will be 5 minutes longer while QF28 SCL-SYD the schedule remains the same

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2020/



Interesting, QF will run 6 weekly 744s in DEC-JAN, 5 has been the max they have run previously, 6x 364 is 2184, maybe a bit of compensation of some sort to allow them to sell these extra seats in peak season? With LA going non stop as well 3 days a week there is a reasonable increase in non stop capacity SYD-SCL.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:35 am

Airlines lose a huge number of customers who use online booking sites if they do not have a flight each day.

There are plenty of widebody routes that are not daily but are too long to be flown by a narrowbody. The 797-6 will capitalise on this trend allowing increased frequency. Smaller aircraft allow traffic to be split between two nearby destinations eliminating a connecting flight at the other end.
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:25 pm

I’m sure that once the route goes to daily and the capacity is aboard QF will either add MEL-SCL, or SYD-Elsewhere in South America, QF is now far more nimble in capacity management. Even with a smaller Y cabin the 789 will increase capacity where they make money up the front.
 
x1234
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:31 pm

In QF's 789 config they can easily fly SYD-GRU (Sao Paulo, largest city in Latin America), even larger than Mexico City. Now whether that will be profitable or not and if a market exists I don't know but Brazil is seriously lacking in capacity to Asia and this is being fulfilled by EK/QR/SAA/SQ and the EU3 right now.
 
dcajet
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:40 pm

x1234 wrote:
In QF's 789 config they can easily fly SYD-GRU (Sao Paulo, largest city in Latin America), even larger than Mexico City. Now whether that will be profitable or not and if a market exists I don't know but Brazil is seriously lacking in capacity to Asia and this is being fulfilled by EK/QR/SAA/SQ and the EU3 right now.


GRU-SYD-Asia is not the fastest way from Brazil to the Far East, particularly places such as Japan, China and Korea. Connecting via the US continues to be faster. Australia is closer to SE Asia, though.
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dcajet
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:50 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Gbass21 wrote:
So now the flight time will increase as the LA SCL-MEL because ETOPS? On the other hand, could QF send some A380 at least in high season?. I think that the 789 in the low density cabin that QF has, carries very few passengers compared to the 744. I know that they're adding more flights, but it seems to me a huge reduction per day.


No they wont send the A388 because firstly there is little flexibility in the fleet. Hypothetically if they were to send A380's to SCL frequency would need to be cut as the Australian-Chile bilateral only allows for 1816 in each direction per week

https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/aviat ... 170619.pdf

Additionally the schedule that has been published is pretty much identical to what is published now. QF27 SYD-SCL will be 5 minutes longer while QF28 SCL-SYD the schedule remains the same

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2020/



Interesting, QF will run 6 weekly 744s in DEC-JAN, 5 has been the max they have run previously, 6x 364 is 2184, maybe a bit of compensation of some sort to allow them to sell these extra seats in peak season? With LA going non stop as well 3 days a week there is a reasonable increase in non stop capacity SYD-SCL.


I believe those are temporary exemptions to the bilateral quotas. Here is how QF capacity to SCL stands:

Until 22/09: 3x w– 1,092 seats/week
23/09 to 01/12: 4x w – 1,456 seats/week
02/12 to 15/12: 5x w – 1,820 seats/week
16/12 to 26/01: 6x w – 2,184 seats/week

Frequencies taper off from end of January until June, when it goes to daily.
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x1234
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:51 pm

In retrospect your correct. Going through the EU or ME3 or SAA/CX is the fastest from GRU to HKG and SIN and marginal for HND/NRT (where going via MEX/LAX/JFK is faster). I forgot that GRU is so far east (more eastern than New York/Miami) that its simply faster to fly east-ward:

HKG: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=GRU-DXB-HK ... =wls&DU=km
SIN: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=GRU-DXB-SI ... -SIN&DU=km
NRT: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=GRU-DXB-NR ... -NRT&DU=km
 
incitatus
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:11 pm

Sao Paulo is a much larger market than Santiago or Buenos Aires. It is also a market than can grow with nonstop service to Australia & New Zealand as tourists and exchange students jump on the easier access. The winner airline is the one that gets to connect the two strong ends first: GRU and SYD.
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dcajet
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:36 pm

incitatus wrote:
Sao Paulo is a much larger market than Santiago or Buenos Aires. It is also a market than can grow with nonstop service to Australia & New Zealand as tourists and exchange students jump on the easier access. The winner airline is the one that gets to connect the two strong ends first: GRU and SYD.


NZ is in a good position to understand the existing demand from GRU to AKL & Australia. From what I learned from NZ folks at EZE, their 787-9s would not be able to make it to GRU with a profitable payload. A more premium configuration (such as QF's, optimized for the PER-LHR ULH sector) would be needed and demand for the route from GRU tends not to skew premium.

Lets see what happens with the next batch of 787s they on order.
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zkncj
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:17 am

dcajet wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
qf789 wrote:

No they wont send the A388 because firstly there is little flexibility in the fleet. Hypothetically if they were to send A380's to SCL frequency would need to be cut as the Australian-Chile bilateral only allows for 1816 in each direction per week

https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/aviat ... 170619.pdf

Additionally the schedule that has been published is pretty much identical to what is published now. QF27 SYD-SCL will be 5 minutes longer while QF28 SCL-SYD the schedule remains the same

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2020/



Interesting, QF will run 6 weekly 744s in DEC-JAN, 5 has been the max they have run previously, 6x 364 is 2184, maybe a bit of compensation of some sort to allow them to sell these extra seats in peak season? With LA going non stop as well 3 days a week there is a reasonable increase in non stop capacity SYD-SCL.


I believe those are temporary exemptions to the bilateral quotas. Here is how QF capacity to SCL stands:

Until 22/09: 3x w– 1,092 seats/week
23/09 to 01/12: 4x w – 1,456 seats/week
02/12 to 15/12: 5x w – 1,820 seats/week
16/12 to 26/01: 6x w – 2,184 seats/week

Frequencies taper off from end of January until June, when it goes to daily.



How goes the bilateral quota work for LATAM with there SCL-AKL-SYD service? Do they had to restrict the amount of seats that can be sold for SCL-(AKL)-SYD?

Or does the break in AKL, reset the quote with an quota the Tasman instead? I gusse on the New Zealand / Chile front it’s an free for all?
 
dcajet
Topic Author
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:11 am

zkncj wrote:
dcajet wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:


Interesting, QF will run 6 weekly 744s in DEC-JAN, 5 has been the max they have run previously, 6x 364 is 2184, maybe a bit of compensation of some sort to allow them to sell these extra seats in peak season? With LA going non stop as well 3 days a week there is a reasonable increase in non stop capacity SYD-SCL.


I believe those are temporary exemptions to the bilateral quotas. Here is how QF capacity to SCL stands:

Until 22/09: 3x w– 1,092 seats/week
23/09 to 01/12: 4x w – 1,456 seats/week
02/12 to 15/12: 5x w – 1,820 seats/week
16/12 to 26/01: 6x w – 2,184 seats/week

Frequencies taper off from end of January until June, when it goes to daily.



How goes the bilateral quota work for LATAM with there SCL-AKL-SYD service? Do they had to restrict the amount of seats that can be sold for SCL-(AKL)-SYD?

Or does the break in AKL, reset the quote with an quota the Tasman instead? I gusse on the New Zealand / Chile front it’s an free for all?


Good question; I am not familiar with how LATAM allocates capacity between SCL and AKL & SYD to comply with the respective bilaterals.
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
b747400erf
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Re: Qantas to deploy the 787 on the SYD-SCL route; increases service to daily

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:54 pm

kaitak wrote:
Would the use of the 789 result in a significantly longer journey time, given (a) the faster speed of the 744 and (b) ETOPs issues (I'm assuming QF has 330 mins for the 789s?)?

M.83/.84 is what the QF 744 does normally and a 787 does that speed as well. Also the 787 thanks to its design will cruise at higher more economical altitudes and can avoid strong headwinds or take advantage of more favorable tailwinds at higher altitudes.

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