Spar
Posts: 399
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:37 pm

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:14 am

Planeflyer wrote:
I think Russia is using this weapon such as it is for deterrence rather than offensive purposes.

Such a weapon if it existed, would be offensive. That's not to say that potential offense cant be use for deterrence.
But I fail to see your logic suggesting that Putin is using it "defensively".

Putin is on offense. Putin is always on offense, and this showpiece is an attempt to make him appear dominate in his relationship with the west.

I don't believe that he was ever certain that it could be developed into a stable dependable part of Russia's arsenal. I think he wanted to get it to the level of a technology demonstrator and use it for his intended Machiavellian purposes. The real cost was always likely to mushroom in the revision level 2,3 and 4 stages which would have been unnecessary for his political purposes. He just wanted to be able to make Russia appear more potent.
 
Spar
Posts: 399
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:37 pm

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:17 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Spar wrote:
OK so the 7,000 mph claim is valid to you.

I'm not so sure about that.


i think that speed is unlikely, but not impossible to achieve. I don´t think the whole project makes sense though.

best regards
Thomas
I think you're wrong.
There is no possibility of it even achieving 2,000 mph at low altitude.
The 7,000 mph claim is bogus.
 
Spar
Posts: 399
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:37 pm

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:21 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Spar wrote:
OK so the 7,000 mph claim is valid to you.

I'm not so sure about that.


i think that speed is unlikely, but not impossible to achieve. I don´t think the whole project makes sense though.

best regards
Thomas
You're wrong
There is no possibility of it going faster than 2,000 mph at low altitude.

None
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 9486
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:27 am

Spar wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Indeed, this supposed missile is a misguided concept, thus obsolete from the get-go.

Maybe, maybe not, it depends on your point of view.

If he could have presented the thing as a working weapon it might have been a useful weapon in the political sphere.

Now, not so much.


Sure, it might be a political weapon, but mostly for internal use, not so much for the global political agenda. Heck, the internal political agenda needs to be furthered for our autocrat, so that doesn't really matter anyway.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Spar
Posts: 399
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:37 pm

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:36 am

Dutchy wrote:
Spar wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Indeed, this supposed missile is a misguided concept, thus obsolete from the get-go.

Maybe, maybe not, it depends on your point of view.

If he could have presented the thing as a working weapon it might have been a useful weapon in the political sphere.

Now, not so much.


Sure, it might be a political weapon, but mostly for internal use, not so much for the global political agenda. Heck, the internal political agenda needs to be furthered for our autocrat, so that doesn't really matter anyway.
Yea, he has his internal world there in Russia. I honestly don't know much about that. And I have no interest in going there to find out about.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 10596
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:56 am

Spar wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Spar wrote:
OK so the 7,000 mph claim is valid to you.

I'm not so sure about that.


i think that speed is unlikely, but not impossible to achieve. I don´t think the whole project makes sense though.

best regards
Thomas
You're wrong
There is no possibility of it going faster than 2,000 mph at low altitude.

None


And you think a Bold "none" sattles it? Lots of things went faster than 2000 mph at how altitude. A minuteman warhead impacts at 10.000 mph plus....

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1396
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:25 am

Spar wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
I think Russia is using this weapon such as it is for deterrence rather than offensive purposes.

Such a weapon if it existed, would be offensive. That's not to say that potential offense cant be use for deterrence.
But I fail to see your logic suggesting that Putin is using it "defensively".

Putin is on offense. Putin is always on offense, and this showpiece is an attempt to make him appear dominate in his relationship with the west.

I don't believe that he was ever certain that it could be developed into a stable dependable part of Russia's arsenal. I think he wanted to get it to the level of a technology demonstrator and use it for his intended Machiavellian purposes. The real cost was always likely to mushroom in the revision level 2,3 and 4 stages which would have been unnecessary for his political purposes. He just wanted to be able to make Russia appear more potent.



The problem with using nukes offensively is this only works if the other side can’t retaliate in kind.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki were such examples.

Putin might not be our cup of tea but I don’t think he wants to see Russia destroyed.

Now could he be using this to intimidate his way to expand Russia? More likely but also very risky.
 
Armadillo1
Posts: 389
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:33 am

i need to buy more vodka because my home bear drink it out and i need to discuss with him new offences to expand Russia
 
GST
Posts: 829
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2008 10:27 am

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:22 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
MH370 didn´t have a 100MW or so beacon shouting "look at me, shoot at me" during its whole flight.


This is something I've seen taken as assumed in this thread. I may well have missed it, but i there any evidence that this cruise missile is being designed for high speed flight requiring an extremely high power output engine? If it were optimised for lower speed (possibly still supersonic but maybe not, especially if stealthy) high endurance, you could essentially have a turbofan with a nuclear core, and a heat signature not necessarily that different from many of today's combat (or even commercial) aircraft. Can we spot and track their exhausts in real-time from space? Sure, you'd have a radiation signature also, but if taking an oceanic route to target, it could be days before the wind blows any of its plume into any radiation sniffers dotted about the world. For the purposes of detecting an incomming strike, that would be far too late.
 
AtomicGarden
Posts: 352
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 10:57 pm

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:47 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Spar wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

i think that speed is unlikely, but not impossible to achieve. I don´t think the whole project makes sense though.

best regards
Thomas
You're wrong
There is no possibility of it going faster than 2,000 mph at low altitude.

None


And you think a Bold "none" sattles it? Lots of things went faster than 2000 mph at how altitude. A minuteman warhead impacts at 10.000 mph plus....

Best regards
Thomas


I think what they mean is that a guided, maneuverable missile cannot fly at that speed at low altitude, while, AFAIK, a Minuteman is an ICBM (basically it makes a controlled fall, no?). A bullet can fly much faster than 2000mph.
You killed a black astronaut, Cyril! That's like killing a unicorn!
 
Ozair
Posts: 4057
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:12 am

AtomicGarden wrote:
I think what they mean is that a guided, maneuverable missile cannot fly at that speed at low altitude, while, AFAIK, a Minuteman is an ICBM (basically it makes a controlled fall, no?). A bullet can fly much faster than 2000mph.

The 3M54K is a sea skimming missile that accelerates to Mach 2.5-2.9 during the terminal phase of flight and likely include some maneuver.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 2801
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:21 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
So, you fire your hard to intercept missile, which probably can be detected all the way out at Jupiter, and everyone in your country is dead because the counter strike gets there about 60 minutes before your missile hits it, and every single country it flew over on the way is out for vengeance?


Who says the launch can be detected? For all we know, only the failures were detected.
Be even if, are you going to nuke Russia just because they launch it? In theory they could fly for months. They may even be able to recover again. Russia could have an entire flock circling in a remote area of the world. That alone doesn't justify a nuclear retaliation any more than an SSBN patrolling under the Arctic ice cap does.

tommy1808 wrote:
MH370 didn´t have a 100MW or so beacon shouting "look at me, shoot at me" during its whole flight.


Again, who says it can be tracked instantly when operating normally?
Even if they could, would the tracking be able tell if there was a formation of multiple missiles fast enough for anybody to react accordingly?

tommy1808 wrote:
France would probably vaporize where the missile came from for just sending it over its territory.


Turning the entire area of France below it into the next Chernobyl or Fukushima in a spat between Poland + the US and Russia? Doubtful.

tommy1808 wrote:
Yeah. If you want to be sure that every time someone detonates a nuke in or near a harbor everyone automatically assumes you did it and may retaliate before figuring out where the Plutonium came from, then a nuclear Torpedo makes absolute sense. The "beauty" of ballistic missiles is that it is pretty hard to not know where it came from.

best regards
Thomas


The Americans have placed large parts of it's missile shield on ships. Nuclear torpedoes would take out an Arleigh Burke with ease.
 
FW200
Posts: 62
Joined: Thu Nov 23, 2017 5:35 pm

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:34 pm

VSMUT wrote:
The Russians are understandably paranoid about this, they were invaded by Western nations in 1812 by the French, 1856 by the British, Turks and French, 1914 by the Germans and Austrians, 1919 by the Americans and British and 1941 by the Germans. They have a history of being attacked and threatened by the west.


In August 1914 no single German soldier crossed the Russian border. Instead two Russian armies (!) crossed the German border and invaded East Prussia (as they had done in 1757 and 1758). That they didn't make it to Danzig and Berlin (as in 1760) was quite a disappointment for them at the time.

And in 1956 they were invaded by Hungary, in 1968 by the CSSR and in 1979 by Afghanistan. Oh no, wait, I am probably mixing up something here?
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 6935
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

Re: Unexplained Russian Explosion

Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:00 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Lots of things went faster than 2000 mph at low altitude. A minuteman warhead impacts at 10.000 mph plus....
Best regards
Thomas

… and it spends like one single second at low altitude, and during that one second air drag reduces its speed from like 15,000 mph to 10,000.

If it spent a few seconds more at low altitude and 10,000 mph, then it would evaporate before impact. In fact a substantial part of the warhead - its outer shell - does evaporate during its one second low altitude flight.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs

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