Payday for the Democrats could then be in November - especially when you remember that Trump LOST the popular vote by around 3,000,000 voters. Let's be honest - those 3,000,000 voters are not going to be impressed by the clowns turning the trial into a joke.
Could be, yes. The maga people do not understand this, since they interpret things like luck and anomaly as ordained result. But the factors that allowed him to squeak by in 2016 do not exist today. There is no Hillary keeping Democrats home. PA, OH, MI, & FL, states he barely won in 2016 (less than 1% in those cases), swing further Democratic as each of the more left leaning outliers steadily drop from the Primary. Even TX is not looking as safe as they would like it to be.
And yes, the impeachment does
have an effect. If nothing else, a practical one. Exactly what would the GOP expect to happen in December of this year, should trump win and we take the Senate?
He does stand a better than decent chance of losing the race, and there is
still a better than average chance he'll be removed from office. But if accidents continue to happen, and he somehow dodges these things, he still is still not long for the world. There is just too much that can happen, and he is just too plainly stupid to survive any of that without enough well placed friends.
My bet is that Susan Collins will fail to get the job done - just like when she turned her back when the Sex Offender went into the Supreme Court. The trial will be a joke and a lot of Republicans will be looking around to see where their integrity went.
I suspect the opposite. Collins is up for re-election this year in a state Clinton won in 2016 and is currently polling behind
a somewhat anemic candidate. Supporting trump (which voting not-guilty would be, as it is not legally possible to determine he is not guilty per se) would not help her here.
Even McConnell only has so much leverage to exert in her direction, as he himself stands a good chance of losing his job, based on his current -and YOY- polling numbers.