ANY update on new growth at MDT or WN will ever come?

Most of the major hubs are covered, Allegiant and Frontier already serve a decent number of vacation destinations seasonally. What growth do you expect? As for WN at MDT, slightly better chance than Qantas starting service there, but not by much.

MDT is part of the BWI catchment area, WN is not coming.

A friend of mine in York did not even know MDT existed until I flew there to see her a few years ago. She and everyone she knows had always flown from BWI.

I would expect to see UA serve IAH & DEN someday, and perhaps AA to MIA, but I don’t see WN going into MDT. They have 250 daily departures about 75min south @ BWI. And enough leakage is already going to BWI so no real incentive to add MDT. There aren’t many more opportunities for incumbent carriers to grow there. Having said that, I actually think MDT has pretty good service for its size and proximity to other much larger airports. And that service includes two ultra low-cost carriers. Guess I could see NK adding service at some point, thinking about all of the growth they have coming with 100+ Airbus aircraft on order.

AAflyguy

In the last 6 years, Southwest has added two CONUS domestic destinations
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport
Long Beach Long Beach Airport

Personally, I think that Southwest is not going to add any more destinations in Continental USA (unless a huge opportunity presents itself by a major airlines massively downsizing). They are done with that part of their growth. From now on it will be Hawaii, international and increasing frequency.

Southwest has over 500 143 seat jets between 8 and 23 years old. So over the next 15 years they intend to replace most of these with 175 seat jets. There is very little advantage at this point by adding additional SMALL airports.

AAflyguy wrote:

I would expect to see UA serve IAH & DEN someday, and perhaps AA to MIA, but I don’t see WN going into MDT. They have 250 daily departures about 75min south @ BWI. And enough leakage is already going to BWI so no real incentive to add MDT. There aren’t many more opportunities for incumbent carriers to grow there. Having said that, I actually think MDT has pretty good service for its size and proximity to other much larger airports. And that service includes two ultra low-cost carriers. Guess I could see NK adding service at some point, thinking about all of the growth they have coming with 100+ Airbus aircraft on order.

AAflyguy

UA did DEN directly for a little while, at least in the summer. As for NK, they have a pretty large operation in BWI as well and I think there are bigger fish to fry than competing with Allegiant and Frontier on leisure routes.

Considering they’ve massively reduced PHL and ended EWR, I’d say MDT has a less than zero chance.

Probably won't see Southwest there anytime soon due to already having a presence at BWI and PHL, but I would love to see Frontier try additional destinations.

silentbob wrote:

AAflyguy wrote:

I would expect to see UA serve IAH & DEN someday, and perhaps AA to MIA, but I don’t see WN going into MDT. They have 250 daily departures about 75min south @ BWI. And enough leakage is already going to BWI so no real incentive to add MDT. There aren’t many more opportunities for incumbent carriers to grow there. Having said that, I actually think MDT has pretty good service for its size and proximity to other much larger airports. And that service includes two ultra low-cost carriers. Guess I could see NK adding service at some point, thinking about all of the growth they have coming with 100+ Airbus aircraft on order.

AAflyguy

UA did DEN directly for a little while, at least in the summer. As for NK, they have a pretty large operation in BWI as well and I think there are bigger fish to fry than competing with Allegiant and Frontier on leisure routes.

I thought UA flew DEN at some point but wasn’t sure, and they clearly aren’t operating it now. Perhaps it just wasn’t the right time for it, but with aircraft like the reconfigured CR7’s coming online, if and when they base them at DEN, markets like MDT could be prime candidates.

As far as NK, they don’t do a lot of day of week frequency, which is what both F9 & G4 thrive on. So, while they’re also a ULCC, their product is quite different in that they serve most markets once daily, at minimum.

silentbob wrote:

AAflyguy wrote:

I would expect to see UA serve IAH & DEN someday, and perhaps AA to MIA, but I don’t see WN going into MDT. They have 250 daily departures about 75min south @ BWI. And enough leakage is already going to BWI so no real incentive to add MDT. There aren’t many more opportunities for incumbent carriers to grow there. Having said that, I actually think MDT has pretty good service for its size and proximity to other much larger airports. And that service includes two ultra low-cost carriers. Guess I could see NK adding service at some point, thinking about all of the growth they have coming with 100+ Airbus aircraft on order.

AAflyguy

UA did DEN directly for a little while, at least in the summer. As for NK, they have a pretty large operation in BWI as well and I think there are bigger fish to fry than competing with Allegiant and Frontier on leisure routes.

UA has never had nonstop service from MDT-DEN.

BatonOps wrote:

silentbob wrote:

AAflyguy wrote:

I would expect to see UA serve IAH & DEN someday, and perhaps AA to MIA, but I don’t see WN going into MDT. They have 250 daily departures about 75min south @ BWI. And enough leakage is already going to BWI so no real incentive to add MDT. There aren’t many more opportunities for incumbent carriers to grow there. Having said that, I actually think MDT has pretty good service for its size and proximity to other much larger airports. And that service includes two ultra low-cost carriers. Guess I could see NK adding service at some point, thinking about all of the growth they have coming with 100+ Airbus aircraft on order.

AAflyguy

UA did DEN directly for a little while, at least in the summer. As for NK, they have a pretty large operation in BWI as well and I think there are bigger fish to fry than competing with Allegiant and Frontier on leisure routes.

UA has never had nonstop service from MDT-DEN.

So then it’s F9 that has, at least seasonally. Someone did. That much is coming back to this rusty memory of mine.

AAflyguy wrote:

BatonOps wrote:

silentbob wrote:

UA did DEN directly for a little while, at least in the summer. As for NK, they have a pretty large operation in BWI as well and I think there are bigger fish to fry than competing with Allegiant and Frontier on leisure routes.

UA has never had nonstop service from MDT-DEN.

So then it’s F9 that has, at least seasonally. Someone did. That much is coming back to this rusty memory of mine.

Correct, F9 is the only carrier that has flown MDT-DEN. They flew the route the first time they served and then when they returned.

AWACSooner wrote:

Considering they’ve massively reduced PHL and ended EWR, I’d say MDT has a less than zero chance.

I was just about to say the same thing. Also they somewhat downsized it PIT as well

AAflyguy wrote:

silentbob wrote:

AAflyguy wrote:

I would expect to see UA serve IAH & DEN someday, and perhaps AA to MIA, but I don’t see WN going into MDT. They have 250 daily departures about 75min south @ BWI. And enough leakage is already going to BWI so no real incentive to add MDT. There aren’t many more opportunities for incumbent carriers to grow there. Having said that, I actually think MDT has pretty good service for its size and proximity to other much larger airports. And that service includes two ultra low-cost carriers. Guess I could see NK adding service at some point, thinking about all of the growth they have coming with 100+ Airbus aircraft on order.

AAflyguy

UA did DEN directly for a little while, at least in the summer. As for NK, they have a pretty large operation in BWI as well and I think there are bigger fish to fry than competing with Allegiant and Frontier on leisure routes.

I thought UA flew DEN at some point but wasn’t sure, and they clearly aren’t operating it now. Perhaps it just wasn’t the right time for it, but with aircraft like the reconfigured CR7’s coming online, if and when they base them at DEN, markets like MDT could be prime candidates.

As far as NK, they don’t do a lot of day of week frequency, which is what both F9 & G4 thrive on. So, while they’re also a ULCC, their product is quite different in that they serve most markets once daily, at minimum.

If you are talking about CRJ550s, they don't have anywhere near enough range for DEN-MDT. Remember that UA derated them pretty significantly. They are perhaps a 600 mile bird, but not much more than that.

usflyer msp wrote:

MDT is part of the BWI catchment area, WN is not coming.

A friend of mine in York did not even know MDT existed until I flew there to see her a few years ago. She and everyone she knows had always flown from BWI.

You have to be pretty sheltered to live in York and not know Harrisburg had an airport. That said, it really isn't that much longer of a drive to BWI with much more convenient and likely cheaper flights.

MDT has had a phenomenal year this year and should continue to grow at slight increase in rate.
AA: increased mainline to CLT (A319s , soon to be A320s)ORD increases with E-175s, and the biggest add getting DFW nonstop. BOS keeps chugging along, we will see for how long, AA has a good footing here. Maybe MIA add someday?

UA: ORD seems to vary, one minute it’s all CRj, then it changes to E-175s and A319/320s. The connections available in ORD makes it our go to airline for going out west.
They do not nor ever have served DEN, though I’m hoping to see that soon. I’d put that as a chance for growth in the future, the market is there, and as I’ve said before in other threads, this would be an opportunity to take away passengers going to BWI on WN. Possibly IAH add someday?

DL: pretty stagnant the last several years. ATL and DTW haven’t changed much in terms of aircraft and frequency, though the loads seems to hold there own. I would have expected MSP to be added for business markets, and BOS if AA drops it.

G4: MYR seems to be the only one that didn’t perform well outside of the summer school vacation season. It’s back this summer instead of April but did get an increase to 3x weekly.
All the rest of the G4 routes are doing well, with SRQ and BNA being added. Never would have seen BNA coming, but I’m hearing it’s very popular. I could see some adds in the future, we tend to get what ABE gets eventually, like SAV.

F9: MCO looks to be going daily come April, which should really help numbers next year. A lot of people didn’t like it only being 3x week. DEN service could do better if the timing was better. 6a departure from DEN is rough!
We just flew it a few weeks ago and had to get up at 3a staying at a hotel by the airport instead up at Fort Collins where we were visiting. A 10a-noon departure would probably really help increase passengers on the route. I’d venture to say we had about 100-110 on the plane that morning, though it was November.
With all the planes F9 is getting I could see MIA/FLL being added and maybe DEN year round.
WN: not going to happen anytime soon, they have this market covered, people are willing to drive to another state 2-3 hours away with all the traffic to deal with, then complain why WN doesn’t serve Harrisburg.

All in all things are looking well for MDT!

Wasn’t MDT cut during the FL acquisition? Seems like they had their chance and decided to pass on it.

alggag wrote:

Wasn’t MDT cut during the FL acquisition? Seems like they had their chance and decided to pass on it.

Maybe, but that was a while ago and we've seen good growth in domestic traffic numbers. (IMHO, it's the presence of WN at BWI that kills it for MDT. They've got no reason to set up shop at a tertiary airport - #110 in domestic enplanements - to compete with their own large focus city.)

I repeat, In the last 6 years, Southwest has added two CONUS domestic destinations
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (rank #48)
Long Beach Long Beach Airport (rank #69)

MDT is ranked #112. Southwest serves 80 some airports in Continental USA. They have no reason to dip that low. They have some airports from the mid 1970s that are pretty small, (#165 HRL Harlingen) but that is a historical curiosity.

At the end of 2013 Southwest abandoned
#128 JAN Jackson Jackson-Medgar Wiley Evers International


Rank RO ST Locid City
1 SO GA ATL Atlanta
2 WP CA LAX Los Angeles
3 GL IL ORD Chicago
4 SW TX DFW Fort Worth
5 NM CO DEN Denver
6 EA NY JFK New York
7 WP CA SFO San Francisco International Airport
8 NM WA SEA Seattle
9 WP NV LAS Las Vegas
10 SO FL MCO Orlando
11 EA NJ EWR Newark
12 SO NC CLT Charlotte
13 WP AZ PHX Phoenix
14 SW TX IAH Houston
15 SO FL MIA Miami
16 NE MA BOS Boston
17 GL MN MSP Minneapolis
18 SO FL FLL Fort Lauderdale
19 GL MI DTW Detroit
20 EA PA PHL Philadelphia
21 EA NY LGA New York
22 EA MD BWI Glen Burnie
23 NM UT SLC Salt Lake City
24 WP CA SAN San Diego
25 EA VA IAD Dulles
26 EA VA DCA Arlington
27 GL IL MDW Chicago
28 SO FL TPA Tampa
29 WP HI HNL Honolulu
30 NM OR PDX Portland
31 SO TN BNA Nashville
32 SW TX DAL Dallas
33 SW TX AUS Austin
34 CE MO STL St. Louis
35 SW TX HOU Houston
36 WP CA SJC San Jose
37 WP CA OAK Oakland
38 SW LA MSY Metairie
39 SO NC RDU Raleigh
40 WP CA SMF Sacramento
41 CE MO MCI Kansas City
42 WP CA SNA Santa Ana
43 SW TX SAT San Antonio
44 GL OH CLE Cleveland
45 EA PA PIT Pittsburgh
46 GL IN IND Indianapolis
47 SO FL RSW Fort Myers
48 SO KY CVG Greater Cincinnati International Airport
49 SO PR SJU San Juan
50 GL OH CMH Columbus
51 WP HI OGG Kahului
52 GL WI MKE Milwaukee
53 NE CT BDL Windsor Locks
54 SO FL PBI West Palm Beach
55 SO FL JAX Jacksonville
56 WP CA BUR Burbank
57 SW NM ABQ Albuquerque
58 AL AK ANC Anchorage
59 EA NY BUF Buffalo
60 WP CA ONT Ontario
61 CE NE OMA Omaha
62 SO TN MEM Memphis
63 SO SC CHS Charleston
64 NE RI PVD Warwick
65 SW OK OKC Oklahoma City
66 WP NV RNO Reno
67 EA VA RIC Highland Springs
68 NM ID BOI Boise
69 WP CA LGB Long Beach
70 SO KY SDF Louisville
71 NM WA GEG Spokane
72 EA VA ORF Norfolk
73 WP HI KOA Kailua Kona
74 WP AZ TUS Tucson
75 WP GU GUM Tamuning
76 WP HI LIH Lihue
77 GL MI GRR Grand Rapids
78 SW TX ELP El Paso

PacoMartin wrote:

I repeat, In the last 6 years, Southwest has added two CONUS domestic destinations
Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (rank #48)
Long Beach Long Beach Airport (rank #69)

MDT is ranked #112. Southwest serves 80 some airports in Continental USA. They have no reason to dip that low. They have some airports from the mid 1970s that are pretty small, (#165 HRL Harlingen) but that is a historical curiosity.

At the end of 2013 Southwest abandoned
#128 JAN Jackson Jackson-Medgar Wiley Evers International


Rank RO ST Locid City
1 SO GA ATL Atlanta
2 WP CA LAX Los Angeles
3 GL IL ORD Chicago
4 SW TX DFW Fort Worth
5 NM CO DEN Denver
6 EA NY JFK New York
7 WP CA SFO San Francisco International Airport
8 NM WA SEA Seattle
9 WP NV LAS Las Vegas
10 SO FL MCO Orlando
11 EA NJ EWR Newark
12 SO NC CLT Charlotte
13 WP AZ PHX Phoenix
14 SW TX IAH Houston
15 SO FL MIA Miami
16 NE MA BOS Boston
17 GL MN MSP Minneapolis
18 SO FL FLL Fort Lauderdale
19 GL MI DTW Detroit
20 EA PA PHL Philadelphia
21 EA NY LGA New York
22 EA MD BWI Glen Burnie
23 NM UT SLC Salt Lake City
24 WP CA SAN San Diego
25 EA VA IAD Dulles
26 EA VA DCA Arlington
27 GL IL MDW Chicago
28 SO FL TPA Tampa
29 WP HI HNL Honolulu
30 NM OR PDX Portland
31 SO TN BNA Nashville
32 SW TX DAL Dallas
33 SW TX AUS Austin
34 CE MO STL St. Louis
35 SW TX HOU Houston
36 WP CA SJC San Jose
37 WP CA OAK Oakland
38 SW LA MSY Metairie
39 SO NC RDU Raleigh
40 WP CA SMF Sacramento
41 CE MO MCI Kansas City
42 WP CA SNA Santa Ana
43 SW TX SAT San Antonio
44 GL OH CLE Cleveland
45 EA PA PIT Pittsburgh
46 GL IN IND Indianapolis
47 SO FL RSW Fort Myers
48 SO KY CVG Greater Cincinnati International Airport
49 SO PR SJU San Juan
50 GL OH CMH Columbus
51 WP HI OGG Kahului
52 GL WI MKE Milwaukee
53 NE CT BDL Windsor Locks
54 SO FL PBI West Palm Beach
55 SO FL JAX Jacksonville
56 WP CA BUR Burbank
57 SW NM ABQ Albuquerque
58 AL AK ANC Anchorage
59 EA NY BUF Buffalo
60 WP CA ONT Ontario
61 CE NE OMA Omaha
62 SO TN MEM Memphis
63 SO SC CHS Charleston
64 NE RI PVD Warwick
65 SW OK OKC Oklahoma City
66 WP NV RNO Reno
67 EA VA RIC Highland Springs
68 NM ID BOI Boise
69 WP CA LGB Long Beach
70 SO KY SDF Louisville
71 NM WA GEG Spokane
72 EA VA ORF Norfolk
73 WP HI KOA Kailua Kona
74 WP AZ TUS Tucson
75 WP GU GUM Tamuning
76 WP HI LIH Lihue
77 GL MI GRR Grand Rapids
78 SW TX ELP El Paso

Easy there, I see no where in anyone’s response suggesting that there is a chance of WN coming to MDT, mine included.
One thing for sure never say never to anything, but chances for the time being are slim.
In terms of dipping that low, I’d really be curious what WN’s numbers would be at BWI with out central PA support, and what MDTs true number would be if people didn’t flock to BWI. I’d bet they aren’t as low as you make it out to be.
I personally don’t really see what WN would add anyway.
It seems NK has picked up where FL once was at BWI, so I’ll be curious if they would ever offer service here. FLL is probably the biggest missing hole in MDT, and NK or B6 would be the answer.

I would love to see UA add EWR, even if only on 50 seaters. It would open up a lot more international and domestic opportunities not served through IAD. Given how well they seem to do on IAD connections (the planes are almost always completely full), I wouldn't doubt they could do some nice connections through EWR.

Buddys747 wrote:

I personally don’t really see what WN would add anyway.

WN would probably serve only MDW, DEN, MCO, and TPA nonstop from MDT if WN ever adds service out of MDT.

While MDW and TPA aren't currently served nonstop out of MDT on any airline, G4 already serves PIE in the Tampa Bay Area nonstop from MDT and both AA and UA already serve ORD in Chicago nonstop from MDT.

gwrudolph wrote:

I would love to see UA add EWR, even if only on 50 seaters. It would open up a lot more international and domestic opportunities not served through IAD. Given how well they seem to do on IAD connections (the planes are almost always completely full), I wouldn't doubt they could do some nice connections through EWR.

UA has shifted a lot of connecting traffic over to IAD. CO served EWR then UA for a while with Q-200s. It was often delayed in the evenings which made it tough for connecting. I think when EWR had a major runway closure years back MDT was cut around that time. I don’t see EWR coming back.

For those of you not familiar with Pennsylvania geography ABE and MDT are 77 air miles apart.
ABE actually serves the more populous urban area compared to MDT (664,651 to 444,474 in 2010 census).

MDT is 141 air miles from EWR, while ABE is only 67 air miles from EWR.
MDT is 84 air miles from PHL, while ABE is only 55 air miles from PHL.
ABE is 121 air miles from BWI, while MDT is only 70 air miles from BWI.

Middleton MDT Destinations
Allegiant Air Orlando/Sanford, Punta Gorda (FL), Sarasota, St. Petersburg/Clearwater | Seasonal: Myrtle Beach, Nashville
American Airlines Charlotte
American Eagle Boston, Charlotte, Chicago–O'Hare, Dallas/Fort Worth, Philadelphia
Delta Air Lines Atlanta
Delta Connection Detroit
Frontier Airlines Orlando Seasonal: Denver
United Airlines Chicago–O'Hare
United Express Chicago–O'Hare, Washington–Dulles

Lehigh Valley ABE Destinations
Allegiant Air Orlando/Sanford, Punta Gorda (FL), Sarasota, St. Petersburg/Clearwater | Seasonal: Myrtle Beach, Nashville
American Airlines Charlotte
American Eagle Boston, Charlotte, Chicago–O'Hare, Dallas/Fort Worth, Philadelphia
Delta Air Lines Atlanta
Delta Connection Detroit, Atlanta
Frontier Airlines Orlando Seasonal: Denver
United Airlines Chicago–O'Hare
United Express Chicago–O'Hare, Washington–Dulles

I actually expect United Express to stop flying to Chicago, and just give up the competition for these small airports. UAexp used to fly ABE to IAD as well. They now lease a bus to drive nonstop to EWR three times per day (roughly 90 minutes). Frontier serviced ABE for about a year, but they closed up shop and went to Trenton TTN (42 air miles away).

Buddys747 wrote:

Easy there, I see no where in anyone’s response suggesting that there is a chance of WN coming to MDT, mine included.

I am a bit sensitive since they used to organize baking prizes and sometimes much more expensive gifts to Southwest exectives from the ABE catchment area. I felt like city leaders were just feeding delusional thinking that Southwest was going to ever come to ABE. I know that MDT carries 70% more traffic than ABE, but Southwest seems interested in airports like Long Beach which carries 300% of the traffic of MDT.

Buddys747 wrote:

MDT has had a phenomenal year this year and should continue to grow at slight increase in rate.
AA: increased mainline to CLT (A319s , soon to be A320s)ORD increases with E-175s, and the biggest add getting DFW nonstop. BOS keeps chugging along, we will see for how long, AA has a good footing here. Maybe MIA add someday?

CLT has been 319, 320, 175, 145, CR2, CR7, and CR9 at various times over the years. I've been on all of those headed south out of MDT at one point or another.

I'd love MIA, but I don't think there's enough traffic flowing south of MCO to warrant that and CLT is cheaper for the connections.

silentbob wrote:

Buddys747 wrote:

MDT has had a phenomenal year this year and should continue to grow at slight increase in rate.
AA: increased mainline to CLT (A319s , soon to be A320s)ORD increases with E-175s, and the biggest add getting DFW nonstop. BOS keeps chugging along, we will see for how long, AA has a good footing here. Maybe MIA add someday?

CLT has been 319, 320, 175, 145, CR2, CR7, and CR9 at various times over the years. I've been on all of those headed south out of MDT at one point or another.

I'd love MIA, but I don't think there's enough traffic flowing south of MCO to warrant that and CLT is cheaper for the connections.

Around 2006 they started running one daily A319, the rest being CRs of various types, usually 3-4 flights. Only recently in the past two years has CLT seen 2 daily mainline off and on, and an increase to 6 daily total. They never flew A320s, unless it was a sub. It will be 2 A320s starting soon, 1 CR9, and 3 E-145, which is an increase compared to before which is why I pointed that out. They also I don't believe have ever run E-175s to CLT.
I think southeast Florida could easily work with someone, that's a big enough market from this area.

PacoMartin wrote:

For those of you not familiar with Pennsylvania geography ABE and MDT are 77 air miles apart.
ABE actually serves the more populous urban area compared to MDT (664,651 to 444,474 in 2010 census).

Harrisburg area is over a million when you include all of Central PA. Also traffic to BWI and PHL is no easy task!

usflyer msp wrote:

MDT is part of the BWI catchment area, WN is not coming.

A friend of mine in York did not even know MDT existed until I flew there to see her a few years ago. She and everyone she knows had always flown from BWI.

Wait .. she lived in York .. and didnt know about MDT? .. Another genius.

I don;t see WN adding or doing anything new at all withall those 737 MAX messes parked in the desert..

Only time you will see WN in MDT is if its for the charter flights to MCO on select Sundays or possibly a sports/military charter

Buddys747 wrote:

Harrisburg area is over a million when you include all of Central PA. Also traffic to BWI and PHL is no easy task!

Another way to put it is that the population within a 30 mile disk around MDT and ABE is nearly identical.
1,418,618 MDT
1,460,558 ABE

It would be wonderful if ABE had the options that you have at MDT. To be able to fly nonstop to Boston, Dallas Fort Worth, Washington DC and Denver.

Sadly, I just don't see Southwest looking for any more new airports in CONUS. Just Hawaii and Overseas. I think the future at MDT and ABE lies entirely with Allegiant and Frontier.

Buddys747 wrote:

Around 2006 they started running one daily A319, the rest being CRs of various types, usually 3-4 flights. Only recently in the past two years has CLT seen 2 daily mainline off and on, and an increase to 6 daily total. They never flew A320s, unless it was a sub. It will be 2 A320s starting soon, 1 CR9, and 3 E-145, which is an increase compared to before which is why I pointed that out. They also I don't believe have ever run E-175s to CLT.
I think southeast Florida could easily work with someone, that's a big enough market from this area.

The 320s were scheduled, not subs. The 319 or 320 would often be offset by changing the size of the RJs that also spent the night in MDT. 170s or 175s to CLT were quite common and a second one often replaced the mainline terminator during slower periods. I've been on the 320s and 175s countless times and reviewed the flights/loads way too often over the years. I haven't paid nearly as much attention the last couple years, I wasn't aware that they were doing double daily mainline already. That is a big improvement over where it was in 2006.