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tphuang
Posts: 3527
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:30 pm

Pinto wrote:
1. The posts says it will fit 170 so probably will have 16J. I would be surprised to see Premium Economy on these aircraft.

2. I think we will see United holdout on any WB order until we hear a an answer about a 767-X. They have a decent backlog of 787 orders. They also might want to see how long this MAX ordeal goes to try to get some discounts on some 787


Nothing prevents them from having 2 versions. 757-200 has a 16J and 28J version. Y+ is different from premium economy.

I think the TATL market will look a lot different 10 years from now. widebody was pretty common in transcon market before and now it's only reserved for a few flights on NYC-LAX/SFO market. Outside of LHR, a lot of the secondary market can be right sized to A321XLR or have additional flights. 767 has no place in this new reality. You either go with the real large suites (on A350/777) in business class that can get premium over the regular lie flats or you go with the lie flats in single aisle aircraft that's a lot more space efficient and lower cost. 4 in a row config like the ones on 767-width cabins don't have the real estate to compete against 4 in a row on 777.



EWR:

BFS
NCL
BHX
GLA
SNN
EDI
OSL Daily
CPH Daily
ARN Daily
AMS Second Daily
KEF
OPO
MAD Second Daily



IAD

MAD
AMS
DUB
VIE
FCO
WAW
PRG
BUD
BER
MAN

exactly what I'm talking about. XLR allows the subdaily to go daily. it allows you a second daily to be added to the market that can support them. And you can support year round service on the thin routes.

XLR will over time replace the need of many B767/787.
 
strfyr51
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:32 pm

RasmusJ wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Deferring the A350 again gives UA the time to evaluate how future widebody traffic patterns evolve and see what Airbus and Boeing do to PiP the A350 and 787 families. I would not be surprised if UA now has a no-penalty escape clause for the A350 (using the A321XLR order as leverage to get it) so if they do decide the family no longer works for them, there will be nothing holding them to the order. That being said, I am not advocating they will do so.


I don’t think UA had that much leverage here. What else were they going to do if the NMA isn’t happening?


I think you'd be surprised at the Leverage United holds with Airbus and Boeing. There are many reliability mods that We suggest TO them that we've gotten approved to fix one thing or another and we work pretty closely with their engineering which is why we have both Airbus and Boeing reps on site to make sure we get out=r message across from both the World headquarters in Chicago and the Tech Ops Center at SFO. Hell! our Tech Library is every bit as good as theirs and both have benefitted from United's library of STC's . As far as the NMA? Do you Really think Boeing won't come roaring back? Neither do I. When they get ready? It'll again be Game On. And this time they won't have some stupid and arrogant [i]Fast Buck artist[/b] running a program. Boeing got smacked in the chops on this. I wouldn't look for that to happen ever again.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:42 pm

jagraham wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
TrafficCop wrote:
My wishes.
UA has 74 777's to replace. 19 77A HD configuration and 55 77E(33 PW and 22 GE). So to replace these I suggest the following.
20 787-10 in 2 class HD configuration to replace the 77A's.
10 787-10 as growth and replacement for oldest 77E's with PW.( Of course these are still rumored as already coming)
10 787-9 as replacement for some 77E's with PW ( Or subfleet in HJ configuration for ULH).
These would be ordered for delivery 2022-2027.
The 45 A359's then start coming replacing the last 77E's with PW and the GE's.(Or use some of these to create ULH fleet but think need sooner than 2027.)

Now to just get Airbus or Boeing to develop an aircraft similar in range but with 30% increase in pax from the XLR to about 215-230 in 2/3 class configuration. Perfect
replacement for 757-300/767-300ER and even the 767-400. ( UA would need 75 or so just for replacement not including future growth.)

Too bad Airbus could not come up with a WB in concert with XLR like the 757/767 program.

Now let the bashing begin!!!

I am of the belief UA will order more 78X - it seems to be working out exceptionally well. For those listening, the CFO has stated repeatedly that fleet complexity adds a huge cost. I don't see them actually adding the A350 for this very reason.


I thought UA was converting 4 77E to HD configuration . .
in any case, capex will cause UA to demote 77Es to HD configuration at least until the next generation of engines comes along. It isn't like domestic flying needs all the range and associated MTOW (except for GUM)

The real questions are
1) If and when on 260t? Because that will give the 78J an extra hour of flying time, making it able to cover over 90% of 77E routes. Otherwise I would expect 60 789s eventually
2) Ultrafan? I may be dreaming, but if Ultrafan does what it should do, in the 2025 timeframe, we will likely see some A35Js delivered.
3) 77W - Not the most technologically advanced plane, but reasonably efficient and cheap. About a year ago, UA ordered 4 more 77Ws, among other things. Not what would be done for a stopgap. 77Ws may be at United for quite some time. https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-fy ... ing-brief/

In summary, I expect about 180 to 200 widebodies at UA in the 2030 timeframe, assuming no large (10%) economic downturns. The makeup of that widebody fleet will be interesting.


People keep talking about the Ultrafan like it's a done deal and it's just around the corner.
Don't expect the Ultrafan to be delivered in large numbers before 2030, even if it could be launched in 2025-2027.
Also, who's to say that RR will still be an independent company, or around at all. They have design defects on 1/3 commercial engines they are delivering, and it could end up being 2/3 considering the Trent 7000 is the same engine as the Trent 1000.

RR is still far from having something that works for the Ultrafan and as long as Trent powered B787A330neo/A350 are selling, RR would want to sell as many as possible of those.

UA is smart to keep the A350 order, it's an insurance policy.
If traffic grows as it is expected in the coming years, these will barely begin to cover their needs and that's before considering any replacements.
 
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UA744
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:44 pm

To follow up on my original post:

Regarding the A350-900 order, I see two possibilities:

1. The more likely option in my opinion is that United eventually cancels the A350 order entirely and converts into the current A321XLR order and either more A320neo or a potential top up order on the XLR. Evidence for this theory would be that United already converted the order from the -1000 due to the 777-300ER better filling the 747-400 replacement market and the 787-9 and -10 better filling the 777-200/200ER replacement market. The main reason the 787-9 and -10 is a better replacement in my opinion for the 777-200/200ER is that United currently operates a large fleet of 787s and 777s which have already have commonality with each other and they intend to operate them for the forseeable future. The 787-9 would be better for longer routes the -200ER flies and the 787-10 would be good on shorter high density domestic routes the -200 currently flies. Other evidence supporting this theory includes the fact that Boeing is likely willing to offer better pricing in order to maintain the current high production rate of the 787 (in addition to the 737 MAX situation), and that American cancelled their similar A350-900 order (however it was made by US Airways) in favor of the 787 for the 777-200ER replacement.

2. The other potential scenario would be that the A321XLR order and A350-900 order are not related at all, and this is simply a matter of speculation ginned up by aviation enthusiasts. Evidence supporting this includes the fact that United has begun refitting the cabins of many of their 777-200ERs, suggesting UAL has no intent to replace them in the near future but will later on with the A350-900 in 2027. Adding onto this, UAL may be waiting for the Rolls Royce Ultrafan expected to debut around 2025, and may be interested in being one of the first customers. Finally, United appears to me (OPINION ONLY) to have no need for any of Airbus' other aircraft, thus making converting the order pointless. They don't need any A320neos as they already have a large fleet of 737 MAX on order (and can likely buy more for very favorable prices), they don't need the A330neo (787s, likely with favorable pricing to sustain high production rate), Airbus doesn't offer a true 757-300 and 767 replacement yet (neither does Boeing but perhaps NMA), and the A380 isn't taking new orders (not that UAL wanted them anyway).

Just my thoughts.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
checklist350 wrote:
Can you explain to me how an order can be used as leverage for a no-fine escape clause to a much larger order of a product Airbus wants to ramp up, when Airbus knows they need a replacement for the 757, there is no alternative to their offering, and that offering is part of a family basically sold out for the next ten years with open slots few and far between?

Maybe after we figure out how VS and QF were able to not take up a bunch of A380s that were firm orders for many years?

It's clear UA found a way to defer A350s four times therefore there has to be some built in flexibility.

None of us know the details.

As above I think A359 will be taken when UA gets rid of its 77Es.

lexiion wrote:
I have to say the fine wording of the internal announcement makes me think they won’t take the A350. It’s the only Aircraft type where they put “currently” in front of the order.

I thought we read UA already had purchased A350 sims?


AA had purchased A350 sims too.
 
F27500
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:01 am

.. oh, good. more awful narrowbodies across the Atlantic. Brilliant.
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:07 am

F27500 wrote:
.. oh, good. more awful narrowbodies across the Atlantic. Brilliant.

Lol say what??
 
9Patch
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:44 am

F27500 wrote:
.. oh, good. more awful narrowbodies across the Atlantic. Brilliant.


I will miss the 767s when they're gone. My favorite widebody.
I wish Boeing would replace it with another 2-3-2 across jet, but the consensus is it won't be able to compete with the awful narrowbodies. :worried:
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:28 am

I'm probably grasping at straws, but the 350 order may still happen. 2027 coincides with the oldest 77Es reaching 30 years old. And UA may now be harping on RR to make the Ultrafan a reality for a potential 350neo. The biggest problem with the 350 is the RR engine contract, not Airbus itself, which has a steep cancellation penalty. And while the 787 is a fantastic airplane, the 359 is definitely the best 77E replacement.
When wasn't America great?


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S75752
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:43 am

If anything, I'm surprised that UA waited until now to order the 321XLR given how much of their business relies upon the 757, that the Max just can't match. With the 350 deferral, it definitely seems like United had been flirting with the idea of going all Boeing in one way or another, but I guess their hand has been forced back to Airbus. Wonder if we might see them just go "Screw it" and order in some other Neos too.
 
ordramper98
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:46 am

strfyr51 wrote:
I wonder if they'll be able to install the articulating cargo loading system we have in all the other narrow-bodies. With the length of that airplane I would think it essential. I'm sure they'll never use or buy the cans like Air Canada uses.


Strfyr51, the company has decided to remove the nesting systems and magic carpets from all the narrow bodies. It’ll save weight, but it sure makes it more difficult to turn flights. Especially since they wont give us anyone extra to handle the extra work. The systems are being removed fairly quickly.
 
moa999
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:47 am

Are they starting to push towards a 350neo order instead?
 
VC10er
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:49 am

I’m sure I can look it up somewhere, but given the A321XLR’s range, from EWR and IAD how deep into Europe will she fly? Can she make Eastern Europe non-stop? Can she make GIG?
If UA sticks with a premium heavy configuration with about 16 Polaris-like lie flats, some PE & Y+ & Y does that lighten the A321XLR?
I always tend to think of the 788 as being small. But she really isn’t that small!
Barring an economic downturn, I only see UA getting bigger: more routes, more seats Longer Hauls.
I have to assume that the IAD/EWR stop at SFO will give way to IAD/EWR NONSTOPS to more of Asia.
And when the all High J 767’s to LHR and other Premium cities konk-out due to age, could each of those frequencies upguage to a 788?

I also wonder if in 10 more years of brutal competition if the new Polaris seat will be dated and a new Polaris 2.0 introduced!
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
T5towbar
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:09 am

ordramper98 wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
I wonder if they'll be able to install the articulating cargo loading system we have in all the other narrow-bodies. With the length of that airplane I would think it essential. I'm sure they'll never use or buy the cans like Air Canada uses.


Strfyr51, the company has decided to remove the nesting systems and magic carpets from all the narrow bodies. It’ll save weight, but it sure makes it more difficult to turn flights. Especially since they wont give us anyone extra to handle the extra work. The systems are being removed fairly quickly.



That's why you see all of those PowerStows all over the place. The carpets and nesting systems are being removed very quickly. And I don't think we'll ever use cans like AC does in their 320's. They'll be bulk loaded, I'll bet.
Problem was that when the Max 9 was in service, the PowerStow could not reach the bulkheads like the regular 8/9 series. I assume when this plane is eventually in service in the future, we will have the same problem.

But I'm looking forward to seeing this plane once on property since I work in one of the hubs it will be mainly based out of.
A comment from an Ex CON: Work Hard.....Fly Standby!
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:43 am

moa999 wrote:
Are they starting to push towards a 350neo order instead?


How can you order something that doesn't exist?
 
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Slug71
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:48 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Are they starting to push towards a 350neo order instead?


How can you order something that doesn't exist?


Airbus have stated the A350 will get the Ultrafan when it's available. That would be right inline with the 2027 timeframe. Totally plausible possibly.
 
JoseSalazar
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:52 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Are they starting to push towards a 350neo order instead?


How can you order something that doesn't exist?

Initial orders are often discussed before planes are announced. Kind of like UAL and DL saying they wanted to be launch customers of NMA. How can those CEOs push toward an NMA order if it hasn’t been formally announced? Customers drive development. If customers are all hounding AB for a 350NEO saying they’d buy it if they build it, then that is “pushing towards an order,” wouldn’t you say? He didn’t ask if they were ordering them...those are words you used.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:55 am

Slug71 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Are they starting to push towards a 350neo order instead?


How can you order something that doesn't exist?


Airbus have stated the A350 will get the Ultrafan when it's available. That would be right inline with the 2027 timeframe. Totally plausible possibly.


I can't see it happening on schedule. Not because RR can't do the ultra-fan,but just because all bleeding edge technology takes longer to develope than anticipated.
 
Kbud
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:01 am

2027 is also the time the new ORD T2 is scheduled to open with more widebody gates for UA and AA. That date will probably move as nothing is done at ORD on time. Does UA have enough 787s on order to replace their 777s? I can’t see the 350 order cancelled, unless UA orders more 787s and UA ends up buying more Airbus narrowbodies.
 
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Slug71
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:45 am

RickNRoll wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

How can you order something that doesn't exist?


Airbus have stated the A350 will get the Ultrafan when it's available. That would be right inline with the 2027 timeframe. Totally plausible possibly.


I can't see it happening on schedule. Not because RR can't do the ultra-fan,but just because all bleeding edge technology takes longer to develope than anticipated.


I agree, but 2027 already gives a bit of wiggle room as EIS of the Ultrafan is targeted for 2025. A number of components for the Ultrafan (like the ALPS) have already begun testing. The first complete engine is supposed to begin testing in 2021, so it will be interesting to see if they can stay on target.
 
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flee
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:57 am

IIRC, RR has already tested the Advance and Advance 2 cores for the UltraFan. So, lets see if they can keep up the progress.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:22 am

tphuang wrote:
Nothing prevents them from having 2 versions. 757-200 has a 16J and 28J version. Y+ is different from premium economy.


True, but why? A high-J configuration with high CASM doesn't mesh with the demand model of secondary markets/leisure markets. It's taking an aircraft made for flexibility and making it more rigid.

tphuang wrote:
exactly what I'm talking about. XLR allows the subdaily to go daily. it allows you a second daily to be added to the market that can support them. And you can support year round service on the thin routes.

XLR will over time replace the need of many B767/787.


Here's the deal with long-and-thin: no matter the aircraft, it's still long and thin. Economically it's a challenge. You need high yield to make the investment worth it. So even if it's within range, the XLR is limited in advantages. Really the 757 has already told us how UA will use them. If it wasn't worth flying with the 757, it's really not worth more with the A321. Yes, you're saving in variable costs, but is it worth paying for a new airplane to run at a low margin? No. The line of thinking that says a route is now viable simply because of lower fuel cost is generally fools gold. The route's economics is what drives the viability as long as there's an aircraft physically capable of flying the route--not the plane type. It's why we didn't see a flood of new routes open up with the 787, A350, A220, etc. The majority are simply replacing existing routes. We've seen UA launch some with the 787, yes, but what we see is generally because it's more capable, not just more economical (a smaller airplane - to fit lower demand profiles - can now fly a farther distance). That's not the case with the XLR. It's a near match in size to the 752, and it's not more capable at this point. You may get a few SQ SIN-EWR-type scenarios with the XLR, in which a route returns because of better economics on the cost side, but expect that to be the exception. I think UA said it best when they admitted that the XLR wasn't the perfect solution.

And once you get away from long-and-thin and into long-and-medium/thick, the XLR's strengths mostly evaporate. It's not going to be a CASM king versus a widebody, so you can't be the bargain leader. In high demand routes, you're playing from behind with market share unless it's used solely as an augmenting capacity. Product-wise you're behind simply because of the inherent drawbacks of a narrowbody cabin that can't accommodate the best of J and offers a cramped Y with only one aisle. You can play the low-risk, low-reward game as a minority market share holder, or you can play the LCC game, but the games of the XLR are limited, and it's playing out in the orders. A good chunk of the orders are now a straight 757 replacement, and in that small area it's the only game in town.

F27500 wrote:
.. oh, good. more awful narrowbodies across the Atlantic. Brilliant.


Yeah, that part I'm not happy about, particularly not one that has very arguably a worse cabin than the aged interior design it is replacing. The engines are quieter, but the 757 interior design will still be as good or better. And neither come close to the room and design of a widebody. I just can't drum up the desire to fly on a narrowbody that long.
 
ClipperGoodwill
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:32 am

A lot of talk about the cancellation of the A350 order (I have no preference, I love both the 787 and A350).

But I do want to point out CO/UA`s long history of recieving and operating aircraft long after their introductions.

CO received and operated B767-200ERs in 2000 when the type was available since 1984.
UA received and continues to receive B777-300ERs since 2016 when the type was available since 2004.

Just saying.......it could go either way. The delay is not automatically a death knell.

We will all know for sure......in due time!
You can't beat the Experience.
 
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seahawk
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:50 am

Agree, it is also possible that they want to squeeze 5-6 ,ore years out of the 777ERs and then take A350 by 2027, when they are probably even more mature than today and all doubts about the engine will have been put to rest.
 
tommy1808
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:03 am

JFKalumni wrote:
The real question is can the A321XLR handle Lima ?

EWR - LIM is known for 500+ bags on a 757. The XLR has the range but I doubt it’s taking 500 bags.


What makes you think the A321XLR won´t be taking 500 bags when the 757 can fit them? Its not like there is a large difference between cargo hold volumes, the Airbus has more, but the new center tank.takes some of it..... in the end its like 44 vs. 47 m3?

best regards
Thomas
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Sokes
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:42 am

scbriml wrote:

Except it's 45 A350s and an A321 is about half the price of an A350. And they have to keep RR happy as well.


A321s are so expensive?


concordeforever wrote:
In the press release it says "United plans to begin taking delivery of the Airbus A321XLR in 2024. Additionally, the airline will defer the delivery of its order of Airbus A350s until 2027 to better align with the carrier's operational needs."

So it doesn't look like they have replaced 45 A350s with 50 A321s to me, just deferred the latter again....


The A321XLR is more successful than I expected. Even though:

"while twin aisle aircraft are used more often on routes less than 2000nm than single aisle types are on the routes longer than 2000nm, the arrival of new generation aircraft like the Boeing 737 MAX and A320neo will blur that gap as the extended range and enhanced efficiency of the aircraft opens up new city pair opportunities."
https://blueswandaily.com/new-aircraft- ... oliferate/

Does the info refer to number of planes or number of seats?
Both wide- and narrow-bodies have waiting list. But for narrow-bodies the waiting list is longer. So let's assume without waiting lists narrow-body dominance would be till 2300 nm and with new engines maybe 2700 nm. I'm only guessing. Short transatlantic Paris to New York is 3153 nm. And we ignore cargo here.

I can imagine that if there is not enough demand on a transatlantic city pair for 7 B787-9 a week, that one sends 5 x B787-9 and 2 x A321XLR.
Or if there is a daily B 757 now, one could replace it with A321s in times of low demand and B787-9 in times of high demand, or in a combination as above.
Or is it meant for new city pairs for which the B757 was too much capacity?

Is the A321XLR the right plane for the job or is there just no better plane to replace the B757?
Also if the B797 comes, one can still use the A321XLR for something else.

I have to admit those who focused on RASM seem to be right.
Does the order confirm that no B797 is needed or does it confirm that a B797 is needed?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:55 am

Sokes wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Except it's 45 A350s and an A321 is about half the price of an A350. And they have to keep RR happy as well.


A321s are so expensive?


The newest price list I could find on Airbus's website from 2018 shows A321neo @ $129.5million and A359 @ $317.4million. An XLR will be more expensive than the base A321neo.

Sokes wrote:
Does the order confirm that no B797 is needed or does it confirm that a B797 is needed?


It appears to show United will take 'bread today' rather than wait for 'jam tomorrow'.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Sokes
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:06 am

scbriml wrote:

It appears to show United will take 'bread today' rather than wait for 'jam tomorrow'.


Lovely expression. Is this a fixed saying like "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" or did you make it up?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:12 am

Sokes wrote:
Lovely expression. Is this a fixed saying like "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" or did you make it up?


'Jam tomorrow' is from Through The Looking Glass by Lewis Carroll.
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/jam+tomorrow
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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BoeingVista
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:22 am

seahawk wrote:
Agree, it is also possible that they want to squeeze 5-6 ,ore years out of the 777ERs and then take A350 by 2027, when they are probably even more mature than today and all doubts about the engine will have been put to rest.


There are no doubts about the Trent XWB engine.
BV
 
Sokes
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:50 am

scbriml wrote:
The newest price list I could find on Airbus's website from 2018 shows A321neo @ $129.5million and A359 @ $317.4million. An XLR will be more expensive than the base A321neo.



A321 LR is not exactly cheap. You think they throw in a flapping wing complimentary?

Image

source: https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/stories ... wings.html
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Sokes
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:11 am

TTailedTiger wrote:

The 757 is known as the Ferrari. No one buys a Ferrari for it's cost efficiency. But both the 757 and Ferrari are a hell of a ride. Neither the boring 737 or 320 will ever give such a feeling. I couldn't care less what it costs the airline. There's really nothing for the passenger to look forward to anymore. I guess the CRJ-700 is the only thing that comes close to the 757 on takeoff.


Airlines retiring B757s could offer bungee jumping from the control tower as compensation.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Sokes
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:23 am

airbazar wrote:
Fuel prices collapsed. The 777's gained a few more years. Some times things are that simple.
They may even end up taking a mix of A359's and A35K to account for future 77W replacements and longer routes.


Which management likes to cancel an order? It would have to write down the advance already paid as loss. That's not good for bonuses. Better to push the cancellation to the future. Let the bonuses get reduced of whoever is in the management then.

However your explanation is even better. Moreover so shortly before entry of B777-9X into service it's a good idea to wait and see.
And if there is really a recession ahead or if the seller's market is about to end, why take planes now?
I can't imagine that an airline that paid advance for A350s cancels the order to take B787s. But then I think Gulf airlines do this. It also contradicts my B777-9X argument. I'm confused. Can somebody correct me?


ACCS300 wrote:
I really hope Air Canada is watching this closely, comes to their sense and orders some XLR's, they'd be the absolutely perfect fit for long and thin TATL route like those from YHZ. Well done UA!


I assume Air Canada knows it's a good plane for them. Unfortunately Airbus also knows it. I guess they can't agree on price.
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Busyboy2
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:47 am

scbriml wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Kinda weird Airbus hasn't released anything on their website. Oh well, congrats to Airbus and United!


You do realise it's 1:30am in France? Even Airbus sleeps.


Are you kidding? YOU do realize that Airbus is a Global Company with customers Globally. The world of Business NEVER sleeps.
 
ITSTours
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:50 am

Busyboy2 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Kinda weird Airbus hasn't released anything on their website. Oh well, congrats to Airbus and United!


You do realise it's 1:30am in France? Even Airbus sleeps.


Are you kidding? YOU do realize that Airbus is a Global Company with customers Globally. The world of Business NEVER sleeps.


Airbus in fact uploaded its own press release in the Paris morning. PR teams need to sleep.
 
hibtastic
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:33 am

capitalflyer wrote:
x1234 wrote:
Nothing like EU to EWR/IAD/ORD expansion!


Only IAD and EWR mentioned in article. Any expansion ORD gets might be if widebodies rotate to ORD from IAD and EWR once 321 comes in. Does UA even use any 757 on transatlantic from ORD?


They use it on ORD-EDI.
 
tphuang
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:34 am

MSPNWA wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Nothing prevents them from having 2 versions. 757-200 has a 16J and 28J version. Y+ is different from premium economy.


True, but why? A high-J configuration with high CASM doesn't mesh with the demand model of secondary markets/leisure markets. It's taking an aircraft made for flexibility and making it more rigid.

Who told you they have to be used for leisure market?
You can have a business market like EWR/IAD-CDG/MAD/DUB/BCN. How are these markets fundamentally different than EWR-SFO/LAX other than being 1/3 longer.

With UA's moves to create the high J 767, it's obvious they care a lot more about a high-J aircraft given the amount of business demand out of EWR/IAD. High J single aisle allows you keep making money in the J cabin with fewer cheap seats to fill via discount Y and low yielding connection stuff.

legacies don't make money on Y with all the ULCC competition across TATL market. Why would they want to sell more of those seats?

tphuang wrote:
exactly what I'm talking about. XLR allows the subdaily to go daily. it allows you a second daily to be added to the market that can support them. And you can support year round service on the thin routes.

XLR will over time replace the need of many B767/787.


Here's the deal with long-and-thin: no matter the aircraft, it's still long and thin. Economically it's a challenge. You need high yield to make the investment worth it. So even if it's within range, the XLR is limited in advantages. Really the 757 has already told us how UA will use them. If it wasn't worth flying with the 757, it's really not worth more with the A321. Yes, you're saving in variable costs, but is it worth paying for a new airplane to run at a low margin? No. The line of thinking that says a route is now viable simply because of lower fuel cost is generally fools gold. The route's economics is what drives the viability as long as there's an aircraft physically capable of flying the route--not the plane type. It's why we didn't see a flood of new routes open up with the 787, A350, A220, etc. The majority are simply replacing existing routes. We've seen UA launch some with the 787, yes, but what we see is generally because it's more capable, not just more economical (a smaller airplane - to fit lower demand profiles - can now fly a farther distance). That's not the case with the XLR. It's a near match in size to the 752, and it's not more capable at this point. You may get a few SQ SIN-EWR-type scenarios with the XLR, in which a route returns because of better economics on the cost side, but expect that to be the exception. I think UA said it best when they admitted that the XLR wasn't the perfect solution.

And once you get away from long-and-thin and into long-and-medium/thick, the XLR's strengths mostly evaporate. It's not going to be a CASM king versus a widebody, so you can't be the bargain leader. In high demand routes, you're playing from behind with market share unless it's used solely as an augmenting capacity. Product-wise you're behind simply because of the inherent drawbacks of a narrowbody cabin that can't accommodate the best of J and offers a cramped Y with only one aisle. You can play the low-risk, low-reward game as a minority market share holder, or you can play the LCC game, but the games of the XLR are limited, and it's playing out in the orders. A good chunk of the orders are now a straight 757 replacement, and in that small area it's the only game in town.

F27500 wrote:
.. oh, good. more awful narrowbodies across the Atlantic. Brilliant.


Yeah, that part I'm not happy about, particularly not one that has very arguably a worse cabin than the aged interior design it is replacing. The engines are quieter, but the 757 interior design will still be as good or better. And neither come close to the room and design of a widebody. I just can't drum up the desire to fly on a narrowbody that long.

I think you should read my other posts on this.

A321XLR has actually lower total unit cost than 787-8 and A330-800 according to leeham while having 2/3 the seat to fill if using a comparable seat arrangement. So in fact, it is very competitive in CASM vs even larger widebodies. And it's not really for long and thin. It allows you to right size the market. If market is only large enough for 3x weekly 767, you can go daily with XLR. If it's too small to be year around with 767, XLR will allow you to go year round with subdaily in low season. If market is large enough for 777, you can go double daily with XLR. If market is large enough for a 2 787, you can go 3x daily with XLR. Only if you are squeezed for slots like LHR or you need larger business class suites to higher end customers, would something like 777 or A350 is needed. Single aisle layout allows A321XLR to be very space efficient with both both J and Y cabin. widebodies just can't compete against that.

HA didn't replace A330 and 767 on those west coast to HI flights with 787. They put A321NEO on them. In some cases, it's to right size the market. In other cases, they went daily. And in markets that demand it, they went 2x daily. When you have same number of seats to sell but more flight times to sell them with, that will generate higher revenue every time.

It's the same reason why if NMA is around, 787-9 is going to get push aside from those 8 to 12 hour routes. And why A359 and 77W is having so much difficulty against surging 78X.

Smaller aircraft with comparable or maybe a little higher CASM is going to win out. The only thing holding back the single aisle up to this point have been the range. Now, Airbus just needs to make some enhancement so that XLR cabin is more comfortable for longer ranged flight.
 
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flee
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:37 am

Busyboy2 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Kinda weird Airbus hasn't released anything on their website. Oh well, congrats to Airbus and United!

You do realise it's 1:30am in France? Even Airbus sleeps.

Are you kidding? YOU do realize that Airbus is a Global Company with customers Globally. The world of Business NEVER sleeps.

I suspect that there is a need for Airbus to observe a slight delay so that United can catch all the limelight at home - the stock markets need to digest the news too.
 
tphuang
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:40 am

Sokes wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Except it's 45 A350s and an A321 is about half the price of an A350. And they have to keep RR happy as well.


A321s are so expensive?


concordeforever wrote:
In the press release it says "United plans to begin taking delivery of the Airbus A321XLR in 2024. Additionally, the airline will defer the delivery of its order of Airbus A350s until 2027 to better align with the carrier's operational needs."

So it doesn't look like they have replaced 45 A350s with 50 A321s to me, just deferred the latter again....


The A321XLR is more successful than I expected. Even though:

"while twin aisle aircraft are used more often on routes less than 2000nm than single aisle types are on the routes longer than 2000nm, the arrival of new generation aircraft like the Boeing 737 MAX and A320neo will blur that gap as the extended range and enhanced efficiency of the aircraft opens up new city pair opportunities."
https://blueswandaily.com/new-aircraft- ... oliferate/

Does the info refer to number of planes or number of seats?
Both wide- and narrow-bodies have waiting list. But for narrow-bodies the waiting list is longer. So let's assume without waiting lists narrow-body dominance would be till 2300 nm and with new engines maybe 2700 nm. I'm only guessing. Short transatlantic Paris to New York is 3153 nm. And we ignore cargo here.

I can imagine that if there is not enough demand on a transatlantic city pair for 7 B787-9 a week, that one sends 5 x B787-9 and 2 x A321XLR.
Or if there is a daily B 757 now, one could replace it with A321s in times of low demand and B787-9 in times of high demand, or in a combination as above.
Or is it meant for new city pairs for which the B757 was too much capacity?

Is the A321XLR the right plane for the job or is there just no better plane to replace the B757?
Also if the B797 comes, one can still use the A321XLR for something else.

I have to admit those who focused on RASM seem to be right.
Does the order confirm that no B797 is needed or does it confirm that a B797 is needed?


if there isn't enough demand of 787-9 every day, then you make more money by going with A321XLR daily + a second A321XLR on high days. 787-9 should be used for longer ranged mission.

It doesn't mean NMA is not needed. If it is ever developed and have let's say 2 hours longer travel time than XLR and competitive CASM to XLR. It will be a 330NEO and 787-8/9 replacement for a lot of the markets

Reality is, A321 will continue to add range until it can cover all of Europe even in winter time from Northeast, but it can't reach Tokyo from Asia. NMA should be able to reach all of Europe + part of middle east from Day 1 and could also reach Asia from westcoast maybe. What's the point of A330/787 if that's around?

The newer aircraft with fewer seat, enough range and competitive CASM is just going to win out in the long run.
 
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Polot
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:46 am

flee wrote:
Busyboy2 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
You do realise it's 1:30am in France? Even Airbus sleeps.

Are you kidding? YOU do realize that Airbus is a Global Company with customers Globally. The world of Business NEVER sleeps.

I suspect that there is a need for Airbus to observe a slight delay so that United can catch all the limelight at home - the stock markets need to digest the news too.

Announcement time could have also changed due to Bloomberg’s initial story.
 
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:30 pm

tphuang wrote:
The newer aircraft with fewer seat, enough range and competitive CASM is just going to win out in the long run.


If your thesis were true there would be no need for any widebodies other than 787-8s, -9s and 10s.

You keep repeating yourself but an actual airline CEO with a pretty good track record disagrees with you. UA has large hubs at ORD and EWR that have plenty of demand TATL. From those hubs 321XLRs will be relegated to tertiary destinations. That's going to be particularly true at EWR where UA is facilities-limited - every XLR new flight is largely going to mean pushing an existing EWR flight to IAD, ORD, or killing it.

United's Polaris config on a 763 is 46J and 22 Premium Plus. They didn't choose that config to give away those seats to upgraders and non-revs. After you put that J and Y+ count on an XLR one would have room for, what, 30 coach seats? Imagine summer TATL flying with such a dearth of coach seats where even the lowest published fares can be $1200/pop.
 
JFKalumni
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:10 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
JFKalumni wrote:
The real question is can the A321XLR handle Lima ?

EWR - LIM is known for 500+ bags on a 757. The XLR has the range but I doubt it’s taking 500 bags.


What makes you think the A321XLR won´t be taking 500 bags when the 757 can fit them? Its not like there is a large difference between cargo hold volumes, the Airbus has more, but the new center tank.takes some of it..... in the end its like 44 vs. 47 m3?

best regards
Thomas


As a lead who works on these planes everyday I know the Airbus is not going to handle the 500 heavy bags to Lima or the 340+ bags and freight to PTY. Passengers tend to hate the confined space of the 737 but the cargo compartments can fit everything. Ask my fellow UA guys here
 
UA772IAD
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:13 pm

tphuang wrote:
Pinto wrote:
tphuang wrote:
A321XLR is going to replace plenty of non-premium heavy 767s out of EWR/ORD/IAD. Do you think UA wants to run 767 with that many cheap seats? It's not good for the margin. A321XLR will have close to the same number of J seats as non premium 767s. Some of these leisure routes like EWR to Naples or Seville or Palermo. It will allow them to go daily and extend the season vs 767s. In other case, it will right size the market.

1) A normal UA 767 has 30 J seats, way too many for a 321XLR with a 170 seat total
2) Define cheap seats
3) Also these are probably going to replace the 757-200s 1-1


1) To many of these leisure locations, you don't need 30 J. 321XLR can easily seat 24 J and still have a good mix of Y/Y+. A 24J + 123 Y/Y+ arrangement seems enough seat for some these markets. What kind of yield are getting for those additional 6 J seats to markets like Naples and Palermo? A321XLR is the right sized aircraft for a lot of these markets.

2) For leisure markets, most of the Y seats are cheap seats. Less Y seat to fill means less discounted Y fare buckets and less connections needed to fill those seats. It's not hard to fathom that filling 123 Y/Y+ seats will be getting a huge premium over 184 seat, right?

3) Not all of the B757-200 are used for 7+ hours flights. All the 757-200 used on domestic transcon which don't need A321XLR range (including all the 28J + some 16J configs). Those are probably getting replaced by MAX 10. You don't need A321XLR range for those missions. I don't even know if west coast to HI needs A321XLR. MAX can probably do those missions too. XLR is best suited for EWR/IAD to Europe + IAH to South America type of routes.


1) Blocking of seats for crew rest, particularly in J class needs to be accounted for in your numbers. It's only a few seats, but it takes away from the total count.
2) There's no evidence for this. The term cheap is subjective and isn't defined. If UA wasn't seeing the yields it needed to make a route profitable, they wouldn't be deploying 763/764/787-10 or 777HD on leisure routes- many of which are seasonal and down gauge or go away in the off-season. The 757 is not used on that many Trans-Atlantic routes; and only sees IAH-BOG/EWR-LIM as far as S. America flying goes.
3) I agree, the 757 isn't used to its fullest range potential. These 321s will see "longer" international routes that command a premium on fares- such as secondary European gateways out of EWR, and perhaps IAD and ORD. I think the XLR will be a swiss army knife type in the fleet- one that can fly an international route and do domestic turns in between. Utilizations such as: EWR-TXL-IAD-LAX-KOA-DEN-EWR...
Last edited by UA772IAD on Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
splitterz
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:22 pm

ordramper98 wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
I wonder if they'll be able to install the articulating cargo loading system we have in all the other narrow-bodies. With the length of that airplane I would think it essential. I'm sure they'll never use or buy the cans like Air Canada uses.


Strfyr51, the company has decided to remove the nesting systems and magic carpets from all the narrow bodies. It’ll save weight, but it sure makes it more difficult to turn flights. Especially since they wont give us anyone extra to handle the extra work. The systems are being removed fairly quickly.


You didn’t mention that there’s powerstows at most gates now.
 
UA772IAD
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:24 pm

tphuang wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Nothing prevents them from having 2 versions. 757-200 has a 16J and 28J version. Y+ is different from premium economy.


True, but why? A high-J configuration with high CASM doesn't mesh with the demand model of secondary markets/leisure markets. It's taking an aircraft made for flexibility and making it more rigid.

Who told you they have to be used for leisure market?
You can have a business market like EWR/IAD-CDG/MAD/DUB/BCN. How are these markets fundamentally different than EWR-SFO/LAX other than being 1/3 longer.

With UA's moves to create the high J 767, it's obvious they care a lot more about a high-J aircraft given the amount of business demand out of EWR/IAD. High J single aisle allows you keep making money in the J cabin with fewer cheap seats to fill via discount Y and low yielding connection stuff.

legacies don't make money on Y with all the ULCC competition across TATL market. Why would they want to sell more of those seats?


You're making the assumption that everyone flying in Y is doing so on basement bargain fares and that is not grounded in reality. The US3 would not be flying to these destinations year after year, and up gauging equipment/adding capacity if they didn't earn money. Besides, where is all this ULCC competition? Norwegian is all that is left and has some not insignificant operational and management pains that it is attempting to sort through.
 
tphuang
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:35 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The newer aircraft with fewer seat, enough range and competitive CASM is just going to win out in the long run.


If your thesis were true there would be no need for any widebodies other than 787-8s, -9s and 10s.

well, I'd take an exception to 787-8. And also, there is a long list of countries and airlines that prefer airbus or need the ULH range of A350. But within Boeing's line of product, 78X kills the need for 77X long term.
You keep repeating yourself but an actual airline CEO with a pretty good track record disagrees with you. UA has large hubs at ORD and EWR that have plenty of demand TATL. From those hubs 321XLRs will be relegated to tertiary destinations. That's going to be particularly true at EWR where UA is facilities-limited - every XLR new flight is largely going to mean pushing an existing EWR flight to IAD, ORD, or killing it.

United's Polaris config on a 763 is 46J and 22 Premium Plus. They didn't choose that config to give away those seats to upgraders and non-revs. After you put that J and Y+ count on an XLR one would have room for, what, 30 coach seats? Imagine summer TATL flying with such a dearth of coach seats where even the lowest published fares can be $1200/pop.

so I am consistent =)

We will see what happens once UA gets their hand on A321XLR. Let's just say 35 of the 50 aircraft gets placed at IAD/EWR for TATL flights and the remaining gets placed at IAH for SA flights and west coast for HI flights. Would you agree that's a pretty reasonable allocation? If you think that's too many for TATL, then let's say 30. That's going to allow for 30 to 35 daily R/T. Aside from London and probably AMS due to lack of available slots, how many other TATL flights do they have out of IAD/EWR within the range of A321XLR that are mostly year round? Out of EWR, I see daily flight in April to BCN/TXL/BRU/DUB/EDI/FRA/GVA/LIS/MAD/MAN/MXP/MUC/CDG/FCO/ZRH/OPO/SNN. Seasonals to NAP/GLA/PMO/NCE start in Mid may. Out of IAD, I see daily flight in April to BRU/FRA(2x)/GVA(sub daily until late April)/CDG/ZRH/DUB/LIS/FCO with seasonals to EDI/BCN/MAD starting sometime in May.

That's currently 26 flights in April out of IAD/EWR. Not all of these flights are even year round. Let's say with XLR, all the seasonal ones (starting in March) can go year round. Some like EWR/IAD-FRA/CDG probably need a more competitive business class product like ones with 777 or 78X. So if you take away EWR/IAD-LHR/AMS/FRA/CDG, which should use widebodies due to slot/gate constraints and the need for widebodies to be competitive in those markets. You are left with around 20 TATL flights out of EWR/IAD currently operating outside of peak summer month.

There is a lot more flights XLR can still support. So I think you will see XLR will extend the season for some of these summer TATL routes with widebodies taking their place on the other routes. And then on the existing routes, they can probably add frequency on routes like EWR-DUB/BCN.

So you can easily replace one highJ 763 flight with 2 highJ XLR flights. Nice to be able to bulk schedule on a route without doubling capacity and adding too many cheap seats. airlines love that kind of stuf.

I'm looking up a flight to MAD in March and it's in the $500 to 600 for R/T fares. I really don't think UA likes selling seats at that price.
 
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thewizbizman
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:36 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
This tells me NMA is indeed not going forward and possibly that new single aisle aircraft will be Boeing’s next move.


Thats a very, very brash assumption. DL was most hyped about the NMA anyway. If i recall correct UA never expressed much interest. Also just because they ordered the 321, does not mean they wont order the NMA.

Also Boeing may be shifting focus to the proposed FSA.
"Aviation is the youngest big industry, but it is the fastest growing baby ever. A few years ago, it was called impossible to fly…The day of the airplane is surely here."

April 17, 1929 / C. E. Woolman
 
tphuang
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:42 pm

UA772IAD wrote:
1) Blocking of seats for crew rest, particularly in J class needs to be accounted for in your numbers.
2) There's no evidence for this. The term cheap is subjective and isn't defined. If UA wasn't seeing the yields it needed to make a route profitable, they wouldn't be deploying 763/764/787-10 or 777HD on leisure routes- many of which are seasonal and down gauge or go away in the off-season. The 757 is not used on that many Trans-Atlantic routes; and only sees IAH-BOG/EWR-LIM as far as S. America flying goes.
3) I agree, the 757 isn't used to its fullest range potential. These 321s will see "longer" international routes that command a premium on fares- such as secondary European gateways out of EWR, and perhaps IAD and ORD. I think the XLR will be a swiss army knife type in the fleet- one that can fly an international route and do domestic turns in between. Utilizations such as: EWR-TXL-IAD-LAX-KOA-DEN-EWR...


1) Of course, taking out 1 J seat for crew rest and CASM still looks great.
2) Exactly, XLR allows those routes to go full year and be profitable in low season and then get redeployed for new thin markets in high season.
3) If 757 isn't used for many TATL routes and they ordered 50 XLR, it stands to reason XLR will replace more than just 757s. As I posted just above this, if you deploy 30 to 35 XLR to EWR/IAD, it's going to replace a lot of flights currently operated by 767s. Something like MAD-EWR-IAD-MAD is pretty good utilization already. Even if it's just one R/T to MUC, that covers most of the day. There is no need to use XLR that much on domestic flights when you have MAX10.
 
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Rifitto
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Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:47 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
moa999 wrote:
Are they starting to push towards a 350neo order instead?


How can you order something that doesn't exist?

Initial orders are often discussed before planes are announced. Kind of like UAL and DL saying they wanted to be launch customers of NMA. How can those CEOs push toward an NMA order if it hasn’t been formally announced? Customers drive development. If customers are all hounding AB for a 350NEO saying they’d buy it if they build it, then that is “pushing towards an order,” wouldn’t you say? He didn’t ask if they were ordering them...those are words you used.


Making an order and saying we want such an aircraft is two different things ,DL and UA don't have a firm orders for the NMA ,UA and the 350 is another story
your argument is not valid
RR is struggling to fix an engine launched 16 years ago and first run in 2006,how on earth could someone expect them to design ,develop ,certificate and deliver an all new engine in such tight timetable ? NOWAY
they couldn't fix the mess with the conventional T1000 which based on the older T900 ,imagine with all the new techs going to be introduced to the ultrafan
it's insane how people see the ultrafan as the magic solution that is going to make the 350 a hot seller
 
airbazar
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Re: Sources: United ordering 50 A321 XLR

Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
United's Polaris config on a 763 is 46J and 22 Premium Plus. They didn't choose that config to give away those seats to upgraders and non-revs. After you put that J and Y+ count on an XLR one would have room for, what, 30 coach seats? Imagine summer TATL flying with such a dearth of coach seats where even the lowest published fares can be $1200/pop.

You're assuming a 1-to-1 replacement. UA is also getting 7810's to replace those 767's on TATL routes. That's an increse in seats. IIRC UA flies 752's on TATL routes to LHR and CDG among other destinations. They do so for the frequencies. They can carry the bulk of the Y passengers on the larger widebody planes and throw in an extra frequency or two on a smaller narrowbody to satisfy premium demand. That's what they've been doing for years so why wouldn't they keep doing it or even increase that practice with a plane that is 25% more fuel efficient?
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