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The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:13 pm

Welcome to the Rest of New England Aviation Thread 2020. This Thread is covering the following airports: BDL, PVD, MHT, PWM, ORH, BTV, HVN, BGR. Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here.

Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411853
 
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ChrisNH38
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Dec 31, 2019 4:20 pm

With nothing even remotely new on the horizon for passenger service at MHT, I'll predict that Prime Air will start flying into either MHT or PSM in 2020.
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:08 am

Missed getting this in the 2019 thread, so here we are. latest musing on MHT. BTW if anyone has any sway with PVD, they have only published up to August.

MHT - Data thru November

Source file: https://mk0flymanchestevtsp6.kinstacdn. ... r-2019.pdf

File Location: https://drive.google.com/open?id=19v-Fd ... QvUMzlAqjN

Month Nov 19:

November is a case of 2 up , 2 down, but the total as usual is down...

Overall: 138,879 vs 149,513, down 7.1% (10,634),
Outbound (Enplane): 68,921 vs 75,263 down 8.4%
Inbound (Deplane): 69,958 vs 74.250 down 5.8%

A far cry from 2015, when overall was nearly 170K

As I said above, it's 2 up, 2 down for the month.

1. WN (Down) - still #1 by a decent margin (23K pax), but a 17K drop (85,357 down to 68,336), a touch under 20% if continued in 2020 could see AA get very close to taking the spot. Market Share tanked from 57.1% down to 49.2%

2. AA (Up) - Where WN depart, AA return the favor, increase was 22%, (37,316 to 45,531) or 8,215, which was no where near enough to compensate for WN, but is a positive sign. figuratively and literally

3. DL - (Down), Big Drop for DL in Nov by 20.4% (20,453 vs 16,285) for a drop of 4,168, kicked them down 2% YOY in market share to 11.7%

4. UA - (Up), following a huge drop from 17 to 18, UA recovered by 41.1% 6,185 to 8,727 for 2,542, not moving much in the way of needles but a bright spot none the less at this point

YTD

Everyone was down YTD, except for AA.

Overall YTD down by 6.9% (1.595,169 vs 1,714,162) - 119K drop.

All rankings remain the same, WN is still #1 with a 52.7% share, but this is down 1.6% (930,904 vs 839,860) - 91,044 down. Outbound was down 10.3% and Inbound down 9.3%

AA is #2 and was the only airline to increase it's footprint YTD, (469,480 vs 432,637) - up 36,843 or 8.5% increased market share by 4.2% to 29.4%, and actually essentially replaced DL's loss for the year, more on that below. Outbound was up 8.2% and Inbound by 8.8%

#3 is DL down 14.9% YTD (238,298 to 202,721) - 36K drop and as a result dropped its market share from 13.9% to 12.7%, Outbound dropped 13.4%, Inbound dropped 16.4%

#4 is UA down 25.8% YTD (110,435 to 81,920) - 29K drop and dropped its market 6.4% down to 5.1% and lagging the others significantly. Outbound was 26.6% down, Inbound was 25.1% down


Rolling basis: 1,728,915 overall down from 1,859,697 7% down YOY or 131K

WN down 97K, 9.6%, AA up 39K, 8.4%, DL down 36K 14%, UA down 35K, 29.2%

Based on my current estimate, I expect MHT to run just over 1.7m this year vs 1.9m last year. AA could breach the 500K barrier, WN are perilously close to dropping below 900K, UA will not hit 100K and DL should just make it over 200K.

A look on the other side of the fence to the Freight numbers

Month:
Overall Nov 19 was flat vs Nov 18 down 0.2%. at 15,874,062 lbs.

The big 3 who comprise over 99% of the total, had mixed fortunes.

FX - down 7.6% or 506K to 6,165,493
5X - up 6.4% or 559K to 9,237,604
WG - down 15.8% or 77K to 411,772 (WG is a FX affiliate, but reports separate numbers)

YTD

Overall Nov 19 was flat vs Nov 18 was up 3.9% to 172,902,400 with pretty much all of it coming from one carrier.

Big 3 numbers

FX - flat or 34K down to 68,779,277 from 68,812,956 last year.
5X - up 6.9% or 6.3m to 97,813,945 from 91,485,997 last year.
WG - up 4.3% or 234K to 5,726,546 from 5,492,102 last year.

The only other airline of note was WN, and they dropped 10.2% from 616,386 to 553,302 YTD

My estimate for end of year is 192,978,144 up from 185,804,583 or 3.9% up YOY.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:12 am

MHT has seen fewer -800s because of the MAX grounding. But once those come back, MHT should see more of the bigger planes and therefore more seats.
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:33 pm

PWM predictions for 2020:

-uptick in winter boardings due to more AA capacity to CLT/DCA and F9 capacity to Florida

- summer numbers largely flat from 2019 despite new routes

-SY to MSP will do just well enough to stick around, but won't be a runaway success

-AA will make ORD year round

-F9 will add winter seasonal MIA

-F9 to DEN will be lackluster now that UA is daily PWM-DEN

-Another (existing) carrier will take on F9 with a non-stop to Florida (MCO or MIA)

-No new airlines announcing PWM service, nor any new international destinations (I saw a discussion somewhere on here saying NK could expand to PWM, but I find that very unlikely)
Last edited by Fex180 on Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:58 pm

WN adding BDL-DAL nonstop service might be a possibility with (a) BDL-DFW/DAL being one of the top domestic routes out of DFW/DAL that isn't currently served nonstop from DAL, (b) WN having a bigger presence at BDL than at most of the other stations not currently served nonstop from DAL, (c) a significant amount of passengers connecting to a few domestic destinations west of DAL such as AUS, LAS, PHX, and SAN from BDL, (d) the Hartford/Springfield area being one of the largest U.S. markets (by population) without nonstop service to DAL on WN, and (d) WN already has an customer base in BDL, DAL, and other markets to support BDL-DAL nonstop service on WN.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:58 pm

Does anyone have BDL cargo numbers for 2019? BDL used to post them in the past when I received them by email but since moving to posting on their websites cargo info went away.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:28 pm

My PVD Predictions for 2020:

Overall its going to be a rather unremarkable year, however I think some announcements towards the end of 2020 will hold hope for a better 2021, barring any economic recession.

AA - I'll go with a 30-40% chance that one of the ORD's goes mainline for the summer (contingent upon the Max flying by then), DFW or MIA announced in the tail end of 2020 for seasonal service.

UA - so far the summer is showing no 50-seaters to ORD for the first time in years. Seasonal DEN is coming I think but maybe not 2020. I'll settle for 10% YOY on upgauging alone.

B6 - I think end of 2020 we will finally see the 2nd FLL flight or potentially a seasonal RSW... as BOS fills up gate wise it makes sense to send additional Florida frequencies to PVD. Wildcard for LAX red-eye if they grow LAX when they get new gates.

DL - Hopeful for more mainline DTW this summer (last summer as A320 and 3x CR9) to boost YOY capacity, slight chance of the elusive 4th ATL for the summer season.

WN - I don't expect anything here, perhaps a wildcard of a late addition of DEN with F9 off the route.

F9 - We will have to see how there BOS all flights before 2pm experiment works out for them, its clearly an opportunistic land grab trying to get any realestate while its still available. Everything they offered at PVD last summer was 90%+ and being a lesser known brand in BOS thinks they wont reach that level there. For next winters Florida service 2-3x weekly MIA may be in the cards.

G4 - they've found success in some places (PGD now up to 3x and CVG) and struggled in others (PIE and SAV) ... I think G4 would have been a better fit for BNA and they may have tried it successfully last year had it not been for SY (I heard most of their BNA stuff didn't work well). Same is true for MYR but I think they feared a F9 response. MYR would and should be good.... BNA maybe but its overserved from BOS so I'd be hesitant. I personally think AVL would work week since there's no service to the Boston region from there and theres a growing number of Carolina transplants for a 2x weekly April-October flight. I think if it was less of a mixed bag, they'd be more adventurous.

Start-ups - Theres Moxy and another start-up planning to launch in mid to late 2020 that I think hold promise for the future. There's openings for service to markets in Ohio (CMH/CLE), Mid Atlantic (ORF/PHF/RIC/RDU) and Florida (JAX/PBI/VRB) and if they start with high utilization like B6 did, perhaps west coast red-eyes to BUR/OAK..

International - I don't see anything changing for 2020 other than perhaps a S4 return to cut people off at the pass now that TP is flying BOS-PDL. We'll see where the new WOW airline (Play) pops up but that could be a wildcard opportunity with DY gone as they did sustain service for 3 years showing the market can support ULCC to Europe.

Overall I think 2020 will be down 5-7% but again the later half of 2020 will show signs of a brighter 2021.
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 3:40 pm

Predictions for other airports:

BDL - If AA abandons LAX for good, I say B6 will jump on it, everything else relatively status quo, chance of a new ULCC market by F9/NK... ORD?

PWM - Overcapacity for westbound service this summer kills 1-2 markets off, potential to see Silver to replace 9K on BOS if 9K does well, this would provide better B6 feed.

BTV - will finally get their BOS connection on B6 DL or Silver with the Saab 340, if B6, it could come at the expense of JFK.

BGR - Potential for BOS connection with 9K or Silver

MHT - I think the market is ripe for a ULCC but the F9 and NK moves at BOS make it a tough case (NK seems to like markets with more volume but they could consider less than daily for the off seasons). They may be a good fit for one of the startups. Best hope is for some YOY legacy growth for now though. Wildcard of B6 1x MCO/1xFLL.
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:12 pm

I'll give this a try too.
BDL looks good for steady growth with most airlines, mostly with upgauging, but like the other Northeast airports, WN may be down a flight or tow by the end of the year. I think B6 will be up a flight to somewhere. If it isn't LAX then look south. Probably the most excitement will be drawing attention for international and ULCC.

BTV will also continue its growth, but the rate will slow considerably. I don't know how sustainable the DEN service is at it current rate and I hope it finds a balance instead of being pulled. Can F9 continue to fill its planes? I'm concerned about a bubble, but hopefully with the help of Canadians it will. AA, DL and UA won't be involved in anything radical and may head in the direction of increasing frequency in a trade-off of some mainline for large RJs with an over increase in capacity.

MHT will have another down year, but I think the end comes into view during 2020. The airport is ripe for an ULCC if airport costs are right. New airport management will have to swallow their resistance to F9 make it happen. If either F9 or NK arrives, I think it will be limited and targeted to FLA and DEN (if F9) a few days per week. AA should have another upyear, but something needs to be done about all the Piedmont to PHL (same is true of several other NE airports). More reliable capacity is needed. Piedmont is the first to be cancelled in bad weather. MHT is a good example of an airport switching its connection focus from PHL to CLT. PHL capacity is down and CLT capacity is up. I hope AA keeps its second ORD frequency year-round and DL finds a better way to keep ATL flying year-round. I don't understand its all or nothing mainline service to ATL. They have smaller mainline planes and nice large RJs in their fleet to work with. Ideal would be multiple 2-class RJs to ATL to keep DL pertinent at MHT. WN still owns MHT but doesn't seem to care. Normally frequency cuts are because of lack of demand/yield, but what I'm seeing is an active effort to push MHT demand to BOS and keep enough to skim the cream off the top. MHT needs westbound capacity and WN wants you to go to BOS to get it. WN actually had more westbound capacity from MHT the day they started service than they do now. Will that soften in 2020? I'm guessing not. I think Moxy is taking a hard look at MHT, but will probably target PVD first. MHT could be 2021 if Moxy stays away from BOS. Probably the most exciting news for MHT in 2020 will be the arrival of Amazon 737s.

PWM has been growing great guns and I really fear a bubble is distorting the market. ULCC growth has been great for PWM, but I already see signs of other airlines backing off. B6 went seasonal and everyone was holding their breath to see if they would even return in summer 2020. For 2021, I could see B6 dropping PWM mainline and going to feeder flights to BOS. BTV and BGR could see something similar. Overall, I don't see any radial market crash for PWM like MHT has been seeing in the near future, but I do see some small capacity adjustments continuing through the year. I was delightfully surprised by AA's attempt at PWM-DFW and maybe it will work, but it could also be a shot to slow F9's growth at PWM. Will it stay? If AA had similar service at PVD, I would give it better odds. I think PWM will be up slightly in 2020, thanks mostly to F9 and AA.

PVD will be a mixed bag as it continues to settle down from its bubble adjustment. Service from AA and DL looks solid and could see more upgauging in 2020. Will AA slide and DL fight having F9 affecting fares but stirring market demand? If so, it probably won't be major. UA? I don't have a clue since they are all over the place with their PVD and MHT direction. WN seems to be paying the price for having F9 and B6 sharing space, almost as much as the BOS effect. WN continues to shift its service at PVD to southbound and away from westbound. I'm hoping for the return of the Max in 2020 so steady MDW service can be maintained and maybe, just maybe, restarting either DEN or LAS.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:32 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
PWM has been growing great guns and I really fear a bubble is distorting the market. ULCC growth has been great for PWM, but I already see signs of other airlines backing off. B6 went seasonal and everyone was holding their breath to see if they would even return in summer 2020. For 2021, I could see B6 dropping PWM mainline and going to feeder flights to BOS. BTV and BGR could see something similar. Overall, I don't see any radial market crash for PWM like MHT has been seeing in the near future, but I do see some small capacity adjustments continuing through the year. I was delightfully surprised by AA's attempt at PWM-DFW and maybe it will work, but it could also be a shot to slow F9's growth at PWM. Will it stay? If AA had similar service at PVD, I would give it better odds. I think PWM will be up slightly in 2020, thanks mostly to F9 and AA.


B6 is basically out of the picture at PWM, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them exit entirely and focus on feeding BOS.

F9 has settled into a nice little niche at PWM. One of those rare instances where they found what works immediately and so far PWM has been a remarkably consistent market for F9. That being said, winter-seasonal MIA seems like a very logical add for them

I also wouldn't be surprised to see some AA mainline to ORD this summer, and to see ORD go year round, as I mentioned earlier.

I'm also anticipating the bursting of the PWM bubble. I highly doubt all of the new summer 2020 routes will survive to 2021. I personally believe Portland has peaked as a "hot" destination, and any future growth will origin-traffic oriented
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:52 pm

Fex180 wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
PWM has been growing great guns and I really fear a bubble is distorting the market. ULCC growth has been great for PWM, but I already see signs of other airlines backing off. B6 went seasonal and everyone was holding their breath to see if they would even return in summer 2020. For 2021, I could see B6 dropping PWM mainline and going to feeder flights to BOS. BTV and BGR could see something similar. Overall, I don't see any radial market crash for PWM like MHT has been seeing in the near future, but I do see some small capacity adjustments continuing through the year. I was delightfully surprised by AA's attempt at PWM-DFW and maybe it will work, but it could also be a shot to slow F9's growth at PWM. Will it stay? If AA had similar service at PVD, I would give it better odds. I think PWM will be up slightly in 2020, thanks mostly to F9 and AA.


B6 is basically out of the picture at PWM, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them exit entirely and focus on feeding BOS.

F9 has settled into a nice little niche at PWM. One of those rare instances where they found what works immediately and so far PWM has been a remarkably consistent market for F9. That being said, winter-seasonal MIA seems like a very logical add for them

I also wouldn't be surprised to see some AA mainline to ORD this summer, and to see ORD go year round, as I mentioned earlier.

I'm also anticipating the bursting of the PWM bubble. I highly doubt all of the new summer 2020 routes will survive to 2021. I personally believe Portland has peaked as a "hot" destination, and any future growth will origin-traffic oriented

PWM has always done pretty well with its yields, but F9 seeks bargain seekers and it forces the market to decide if they want to put up a fight or back away. A bubble gets built when airlines fight back with adding low fare capacity in hopes of driving F9 out, or at least minimize its impact. In the end, airlines want to make money and won't hang onto money losers unless it gives then strategic advantage. Time will tell how it shakes out and how hard airlines will fight for the market, but the bubble should last long enough to give PWM 2020 a good launching point into annual count. I believe BTV is looking at a similar dynamic, but its an even smaller market.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:03 pm

Looks like DL has been slowly removing MD88-90s from a few New England routes. ATL-BTV / PWM both switch to 73-7 starting in April. PWM has a mix of 73-7 and MD88, through September, although I don't know how much of that schedule is a placeholder. ATL-MHT now seems to be exclusively on the 73-8 (1x daily)

Interestingly, the 73-7 is actually a downgauge for ATL-PWM. That route has almost always been exclusively MD-88/90 year round, and a DL 73-7 has a max capacity of 125, compared to 150-160 for the MD's

I've flown PWM-ATL a handful of times, usually in the winter, and that flight is always very full, even with MD-90's. I wonder if this downgauge will DL will add a second year-round frequency to ATL.

Also of note, there is no scheduled mainline LGA-PWM this year on DL, back to 4x daily, all regional.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:54 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
PWM has always done pretty well with its yields, but F9 seeks bargain seekers and it forces the market to decide if they want to put up a fight or back away. A bubble gets built when airlines fight back with adding low fare capacity in hopes of driving F9 out, or at least minimize its impact. In the end, airlines want to make money and won't hang onto money losers unless it gives then strategic advantage. Time will tell how it shakes out and how hard airlines will fight for the market, but the bubble should last long enough to give PWM 2020 a good launching point into annual count. I believe BTV is looking at a similar dynamic, but its an even smaller market.


I don't get the impression that there is a whole lot of fighting going on at BTV. I happened to book a trip to MCO this winter and I did not find either F9's or anyone else's rates noticeably lower than what I have paid in the past pre-F9. Likewise UA's response to DEN of adding two weekend flights seems pretty mild, especially if they are just moving connections to fill some of those seats. It seems like in general everyone is pretty satisfied with their piece of the pie and is not motivated to change much.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:01 pm

I got to use the temporary connector at BTV this past week, and it probably saved me from missing my flight. It looked pretty much like what you'd expect, except for more changes of direction than I had pictured.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:44 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
I got to use the temporary connector at BTV this past week, and it probably saved me from missing my flight. It looked pretty much like what you'd expect, except for more changes of direction than I had pictured.

Can you still get to the old tower from the land side?
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:16 pm

Someone at PVD must have heard my complaints about their stats uploading. Magically Sept to Nov have appeared. More soon once I update my file accordingly:)
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:00 am

tomaheath wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:
I got to use the temporary connector at BTV this past week, and it probably saved me from missing my flight. It looked pretty much like what you'd expect, except for more changes of direction than I had pictured.

Can you still get to the old tower from the land side?


I don't think so. I passed the entrance to the old tower on the way from the South concourse to the North so you would have had to get through security to get to that point.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 3:29 am

PVD - Data thru November

Source file: https://www.pvdairport.com/documents/pa ... er2019.pdf (month only, but I am not putting links to every month file!)

File Location: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1V10vY ... 8tUN1vCxs4

Month Nov-19:

November numbers were not pretty for PVD, Outbound (Enplanements) ended up worse then Inbound (Deplanements)

Overall: 324,085 vs 352,565, down 8.1%
Outbound (Enplane): 161,488 vs 177,079 down 8.8%
Inbound (Deplane): 162,597 vs 175,486 down 7.3%

Figures below include regionals and mainline where appropriate and are listed in order of passenger counts and thus market share.

1. WN - 125,041 vs 138,436 down 9.7% overall, maintaining #1 share with 38.6% but down 0.7% over the prior year. A reduction of 13,395 overall, Inbound was down 5,471, outbound down 7,924. Gap to #2 closed by 9K, but still 36K, so little chance of being overtaken in a November any time soon.

2. AA - 88,206 vs 90,437 down 2.5% overall, cementing position as #2, share is actually up 1.5% YOY due to reductions else where, down 2,231. Inbound down 1,048 for 2.3%, outbound down 1,183 down 2.6%. Within those numbers big move from mainline to regional with a 20.1% reduction on mainline (12,530), most was traded off by Envoy, PSA and Republic, with the biggest volume shift going to PSA.

3. DL - continued #3 spot with a similar situation as AA, 34,631 vs 36,355, share was also up by 0.4% to 10.7%, but down by 1,724 as a number, split 746 Outbound, 978 Inbound. main switches behind the scenes were a reduction in mainline, Endeavor and GO Jet and a pick up by Skywest to compensate,

4. B6 - the one success story in November, 27,729 vs 22,212 up 24.8%, and closing the gap on DL from 14K to 7K for the month, along with overtaking UA in the process. Market share moved up by 2.3% to 8.6% as a result, Inbound up 25.5% or 2,852, Outbound up 2,665 or 24.2%

5. UA - slipped back to 5th, as a result of an overall 16.8% reduction vs prior year 25,728 vs 30,925, allowing B6 to slip past them this month. Outbound down a whopping 17.5% albeit 2,711 pax, Inbound slightly better 16.1% down with 2,486 reduction. Big reductions in Mainline and Republic with increases from Commutair and Air Wisconsin. Market Share dropped by 0.9% to 7.9%

6. F9 - another double digit decrease to 16,689 from 20,660 or 19.2% down (3,971) outbound down 1,854 for 18.1%, inbound down 2,117 for 20.3%, market share also dropped from 5.9% to 5.1%

7. G4 - the steady decline continued down 7.3% from 4,978 to 4,614 (364 pax), 9.6% down on outbound vs 5% down on inbound, 1.4% market share

Additional notes: SY were 0 for the month, Charters were 1,400 and we even managed to pick up a spurious 92 from NK, I assume to a divert that deplaned. and for the first time since 2015 when DE arrived that there was a 0 from International carriers.

YTD

November YTD numbers are still not pretty for PVD, Outbound (Enplanements) ended up worse then Inbound (Deplanements)

Overall: 3,663,662 vs 3,988,037 down 324,375 or 8.1%
Outbound (Enplane): 1,831,747 vs 1,991,315 down 159,568 or 8%
Inbound (Deplane): 1,831,915 vs 1,996,722 down 164,807 or 8.3%

(Quite amazing that after 11 months of the year, the difference between inbound and outbound pax is 168..)

Figures below include regionals and mainline where appropriate and are listed in order of passenger counts and thus market share.

1. WN - 1,355,932 vs 1,516,4763 down 160,544 or 10.6% overall, still by far the market leader with 37%, but down 1% YOY. Inbound was down 10.8% or 82,008, outbound down 10.3% or 78,536 . Not much chance of WN losing their position, but it has closed by 35% YOY, it's still 390K, but Nov 18 was 591K....

2. AA - 965,779 vs 925,191 up 40,588 or 4.4%, despite their reduction in November. , increased their share to 26.4% from 23.2% this year as a result, due to reductions elsewhere. Inbound up 23,017 for 5%, outbound up 15,171 down 2.6%. Big increase in PSA and Envoy flying, traded off with reductions in Go Jet and Republic.

3. DL - 427,454 vs 408,960 up 18,494 or 4.5% continued in the #3 spot with a similar situation as AA, share was also up by 1.4% to 11.7%, split 12,731 Outbound, 5,763 Inbound. main switches behind the scenes were a increase in mainline and Skywest vs reductions in Endeavor and Go Jet.

4. B6 - biggest gainer of the year 283,402 vs 216,895, up 66,507 or 30.7%, and closing the gap on DL from 14K to 7K for the month, along with overtaking UA in the process. Market share moved up by 2.3% to 8.6% as a result, Inbound up 25.5% or 2,852, Outbound up 2,665 or 24.2%, however even though the gap to DL is 144,000 that has been reduced by 25% this year along. Doubtful there will be a change in position any time soon, but it is closing. Not only closing on DL, but actually lept over both F9 and UA this year, they were 66K behind UA and a whopping 150K behind F9, but due to major reductions on the others now find them in 4th by 24K from UA. Market share grew from 5.4 to 7.7%

5. UA - maintained 5th despite B6 leapfrogging them F9's pax collapse left them in the same position, 259,538 vs 283,793 for a drop of 23,255 or 8.2% . Outbound down 11,704 or 8.3%, Inbound down 11,551 or 8.2%. Biggest reduction came via Republic (50K down), along with Mainline, Go Jet and Mesa, however these were offset somewhat with increases in Commutair and Skywest. Market share strangely remained the same at 7.1% because of movements elsewhere, despite their own drops.

6. F9 - biggest drop of the year, representing over 1/2 of the entire years reduction 196,615 vs 362,739 for a 45.8% reduction overall. Market share collapsed from 9.1% to 5.4% and as a result dropped from 4th to 6th in the charts. Inbound down 82,682 or 45.6%, Outbound down 83,442 or 46%

7. SY - new entrant into the market this year, grabbed 65,593 pax to take a 1.8% share of the market, 32,523 inbound and 33,070 outbound.

8. International - the respective pullouts of S4 and D8 hammered the International number, with only D8 (earlier in the year) and ZX contributing to a number of 49,887 vs 199,162 last time out. Be Interesting to see if D8 return if the Max flying starts again, but given their financial woes, something tells me, probably not.

9. G4 - last of the main airlines, with a 29.7% reduction from 66,439 to 46,721 (19.718) , Inbound down 9,764 or 29.3%, outbound down by 9,954 or 30%. Wonder if they will pull out at some point?

I will state however that the number for 19 is still 70K above the equivalent for 2017 and almost 400K above 2015 levels, so there has been growth, but YOY, sadly a drop.

Rolling basis: 3,973.970 vs 4,334,289 overall, with WN leading the charge at 1,483,441 and a 38.1% share, but as from the notes above, those metrics are definitely changing. The 2017 number was 3,881,229, so 2019 is still above that, if you ignore the blip of 2018.

Based on my current estimate, I expect PVD to run just under 4.0m this year vs just under 4.3m last year. the drops in WN, D8 and F9 are just too big for the others to shore up, even if they wanted to. B6 will be the winner of the beyond 1 year improvement. SY would have run them close, but I suspect B6 will overtake the number, because SY is done for the year at this point.

Fingers crossed for a better December and 2020... Thanks for reading (if you got this far!)
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
airbazar
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:04 pm

Didn't see anything posted about this. EK A380 diverted to BGR for a medical emergency. Sounds like the airport's FD had quite the exercise.
https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/ ... -emergency
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAE ... /OMDB/KBGR
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:54 pm

PVD finally gets thrown a bone with G4 announcing PVD-MYR this summer 2x weekly. While its essentially replacing SAV, i imagine this will do much better.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
maximairways
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:51 pm

This article of the Top 50 unserved routes in the US has BDL with one of the highest number of routes. (I assume "CA" is typo as there is no Hartford California)
https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/13/usas-t ... OdaA3Hvmd8



Rank Route PDEW
2 Hartford, CA – Las Vegas, NV 143
7 Hartford, CT – Phoenix, AZ 114
16 Hartford, CA – San Francisco, CA 100
28 Hartford, CT – Nashville, TN 91
30 Hartford, CT – San Diego, CA 88
46 Hartford, CT – Seattle, WA 79
 
PVD523
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:40 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
PVD finally gets thrown a bone with G4 announcing PVD-MYR this summer 2x weekly. While its essentially replacing SAV, i imagine this will do much better.


Happy to see this route back after F9 dropped it back in 2018. I always thought F9's initial launch of 3x weekly A321s was a little too much capacity for the route. G4 should find success with it.
 
HVNandrew
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:41 pm

maximairways wrote:
This article of the Top 50 unserved routes in the US has BDL with one of the highest number of routes. (I assume "CA" is typo as there is no Hartford California)
https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/13/usas-t ... OdaA3Hvmd8



Rank Route PDEW
2 Hartford, CA – Las Vegas, NV 143
7 Hartford, CT – Phoenix, AZ 114
16 Hartford, CA – San Francisco, CA 100
28 Hartford, CT – Nashville, TN 91
30 Hartford, CT – San Diego, CA 88
46 Hartford, CT – Seattle, WA 79

BDL-LAS was flown for years by WN and briefly by DL in the mid-2000s. I was really surprised when WN dropped the route; it seemed like they had been flying it forever (15+ years?). PHX was also flown in the past by HP and I believe briefly following the merger by US. I believe SFO was also flown by UA in the past.

WN has pulled back at BDL quite a bit; not sure they would be willing to jump back into west coast flights anytime soon. AA offers some highly seasonal service out of PHX (i.e. peak travel days around holidays); I could see them possibly flying some red-eyes to BDL as part of that. SAN is too long and thin without a hub to support any connecting traffic on any carrier. SEA I thought was a slight possibility when DL was seemingly adding new service every week, but now that their expansion has slowed I don't see it happening anytime soon.
 
uconn99
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:50 pm

maximairways wrote:
This article of the Top 50 unserved routes in the US has BDL with one of the highest number of routes. (I assume "CA" is typo as there is no Hartford California)
https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/13/usas-t ... OdaA3Hvmd8



Rank Route PDEW
2 Hartford, CA – Las Vegas, NV 143
7 Hartford, CT – Phoenix, AZ 114
16 Hartford, CA – San Francisco, CA 100
28 Hartford, CT – Nashville, TN 91
30 Hartford, CT – San Diego, CA 88
46 Hartford, CT – Seattle, WA 79


Saw this yesterday, LAS & PHX seem to be likely adds at some point in the near future. I would have thought Spirit would have jumped on BDL-LAS route after WN pulled out. DL is also slowly building up LAS, with their presence at BDL maybe DL would give it a shot, I know they previously flew the route a few years back for a short period but LAS is tough with low yields. PVD is also on the list ranked 27th with 91 daily to LAS.

Realistically all of the routes above could be possible future adds minus SAN which would be mainly all O&D and not sure an airline would want to try such a thin long route with little connection possibilities. DL adding BDL-SEA on an A220 may work with some connections to the NW and Asia helping. UA will bring back BDL-SFO at some point seasonally, I am surprised it hasn't been reinstated with MKE recently getting seasonal service.

Also interesting to note BDL's Caribbean traffic below. https://www.anna.aero/2019/10/11/top-20 ... caribbean/

Hartford-Montego Bay 25,600
Hartford-Punta Cana 22,500

Air Jamaica was very close to adding flights to BDL in the late 90's. With B6 now the 4th largest carrier by pax at BDL, maybe they would give it a shot? Seasonal 1x weekly to Punta Cana may work as well.
 
rnav2dlrey
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:22 am

probably insignificant, but i thought this was mildly interesting: i was browsing the state of CT job postings, and there's a new opening for a property agent with CAA that seems to be focused on property acquisition (Recruitment #191120-6585FS-001).
 
jplatts
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:17 am

HVNandrew wrote:
WN has pulled back at BDL quite a bit; not sure they would be willing to jump back into west coast flights anytime soon.


I mentioned WN adding BDL-DAL nonstop service as a possibility with WN having a bigger presence at BDL than at most of the other WN stations that don't currently have nonstop service to DAL on WN. In addition to BDL being one of the top destinations traveled to from the DFW/DAL market that doesn't currently have nonstop service to DAL on WN, there is also a significant amount of passengers connecting to destinations west of DAL from BDL.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:34 pm

maximairways wrote:
This article of the Top 50 unserved routes in the US has BDL with one of the highest number of routes. (I assume "CA" is typo as there is no Hartford California)
https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/13/usas-t ... OdaA3Hvmd8



Rank Route PDEW
2 Hartford, CA – Las Vegas, NV 143
7 Hartford, CT – Phoenix, AZ 114
16 Hartford, CA – San Francisco, CA 100
28 Hartford, CT – Nashville, TN 91
30 Hartford, CT – San Diego, CA 88
46 Hartford, CT – Seattle, WA 79


Something to keep in mind with this list is that not everyone is going to take the nonstop flight, may will stick with a preferred airline and many will have time preferences or requirements.

200+ PDEW would mean capturing 75% of the market for an O&D route

Lets say 50% market share is realistic, and a 40% connecting ratio (the airline would want a decent O&D otherwise might as well just flow them over a closer hub)

150 seat Aircraft @ 90% load = 135 Passengers
135 passengers = 54 connecting (40%) 81 O&D
81 passengers at 50% market share = 162 PDEW required to make it work

The only one that comes close on that list is LAS

Where you can get creative is say an airline wants to do 3x weekly to a place like PHX is you can assume some people will change their travel dates to fly nonstop or that they will fly on the stronger demand days since PDEW is an average and all of a sudden a PDEW of 114 is attractive from a 3x weekly perspective.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:00 pm

Same math but for more of a hub route like for example PVD-DFW (wont show up on that list because it shows as served from BOS)
150 seat aircraft @ 90% load = 135 passengers
70% connecting = 95,O&D = 40
50% market share = 80 PDEW required (in this case they might get above 50% market share since AA is high on both ends)
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:05 pm

A few projects going on at PWM :

construction of both an FIS facility and a business lounge within the next year, as well as additional dining / retail space within the area currently occupied by TSA offices. As far as I know, the business lounge will be operated by the airport and will be available to anyone with a business / first class ticket on any carrier.

The FIS facility is the highest priority, and will have a direct connection to gate 5. This will allow for both scheduled international service and charter service to European / Caribbean destinations

Construction of 2 new jetrbridges on the western side of the terminal will also begin in 2021. These will be dedicated AA gates.

The Jetport also plans to add up to 240 additional parking spaces to accommodate peak demand periods. The success of F9's Florida routes has meant that there is a lack of parking demand during the spring break rush, and the Jetport recently recieved approval from the Portland City Council to begin studying / designing additional parking facilities.
 
BlueBaller
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:28 pm

With the JetBlue reductions and reshuffling out in Long Beach announced today, PVD finally gained an additional frequency to FLL starting in Winter 2020.

2x daily starting in November.

Up to 5x daily in the peak season. Now all we need is LAX and SDQ!
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:32 pm

BlueBaller wrote:
With the JetBlue reductions and reshuffling out in Long Beach announced today, PVD finally gained an additional frequency to FLL starting in Winter 2020.

2x daily starting in November.

Up to 5x daily in the peak season. Now all we need is LAX and SDQ!


Where do you see that? their schedule only goes to Sept 7th...
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
BlueBaller
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 8:38 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:
With the JetBlue reductions and reshuffling out in Long Beach announced today, PVD finally gained an additional frequency to FLL starting in Winter 2020.

2x daily starting in November.

Up to 5x daily in the peak season. Now all we need is LAX and SDQ!


Where do you see that? their schedule only goes to Sept 7th...


Announced via company today. Winter seasonal.
 
PVD523
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:18 pm

BlueBaller wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
BlueBaller wrote:
With the JetBlue reductions and reshuffling out in Long Beach announced today, PVD finally gained an additional frequency to FLL starting in Winter 2020.

2x daily starting in November.

Up to 5x daily in the peak season. Now all we need is LAX and SDQ!


Where do you see that? their schedule only goes to Sept 7th...


Announced via company today. Winter seasonal.


If this holds true it will be a very welcome addition to PVD's south Florida lift, including the additional access to B6's Latin American network. It positions them more competitively against WN as well, which has bumped PVD-FLL up to 3-4x daily at times during peak season over the last few years. Personally, I can't agree more with the 'finally gained' sentiment.
 
uconn99
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:43 pm

I don't remember AA cutting flights in the past, HVN is down to 2x daily to PHL (Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday) and 1x daily (Saturday, Tuesday, Wednesday) for January/February. CLT remains at 1x SAT only.

https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/articl ... ir-service
 
airlineworker
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:34 am

uconn99 wrote:
I don't remember AA cutting flights in the past, HVN is down to 2x daily to PHL (Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday) and 1x daily (Saturday, Tuesday, Wednesday) for January/February. CLT remains at 1x SAT only.

https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/articl ... ir-service


They did last year and now with the 76 seat E-175's being used, Jan-Mar are the slowest months for air travel, thus the reduction. Starting Feb 13, 2020, the PHL flights are up to two daily and on May 7, its back to three daily flights. AA might make the CLT flight a daily one this year, loads have been good.
 
jplatts
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:44 pm

stlgph wrote:
Can't wait for your 40 page response to that telling me about how United could add service from Providence to Rapid City.


I definitely do not expect UA to ever add PVD-RAP nonstop service since UA only operates nonstop service to UA hubs from most of the non-UA hub airports served by UA.

The only nonstop routes I could ever see UA adding from PVD would be PVD-DEN, PVD-IAH, PVD-LAX, and PVD-SFO, but UA has hubs at DEN, IAH, LAX, and SFO.
 
jplatts
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:47 pm

There are some more nonstop routes that could be added by AA, DL, and WN at PVD, including the following:
PVD-DFW/LAX/MIA on AA
PVD-MSP/LAX/RDU/SLC on DL
PVD-DEN/BNA/STL on WN
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:33 am

BDL - Data - Y/E 2019/u]

Source file: https://bradleyairport.com/wp-content/u ... -FINAL.pdf

First up with their year end numbers is BDL, the good news, overall they ended up for the year, although it's a bit of a mixed bag of individual results.

Support File Location: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B61t8 ... VRWdmc5SkE

Month Dec 19:

The diverging nature of the airlines can certainly be seen in the Dec numbers

19 vs 18 comparatives
Overall: 564,833 vs 537,511, up 5.1%,
Outbound (Enplane): 286,626 vs 270,790 up 15,836 or 5.8%
Inbound (Deplane): 278,207 vs 266,721 up 11,486 or 4.3%

So actually a decent month being up 5% over the prior year, as ever there are some ups and downs.. again, in order of market share..


1. AA - 138,800 vs 125,480 up 13,320 or 10.6% overall, moved to #1 status for December after WN's decline (more on that in a minute) and ended up with a 24.6% share up 1.2% over the prior year. Outbound up 6,518 or 10.4%, Inbound up 6,802 or 10.8%, so a good balance on both sides. Overall the increases came from mainline (9,761 or 9.8%) , Expressjet was up 3,515 from a zero in 2018 and Republic up 6,144 or 128.2%, these were offset by reductions in flying from Envoy (no flying in 2019), PSA (down 22.1%) and Piedmont (down 6.8%, but on a very small amount of actual pax.

2. WN - 1st last year, 1st no more, 126,194 vs 132,956 down 6,762 or 5.1%. outbound pax fared slightly better down just 3.7% or 2,436, inbound took the brunt down, 4,326 or 6.5%, market share dropped from 24.7% to 22.3%

3. DL - DL are smelling blood in the water. 107,859 vs 98,131 up 9,728 or 9.9%. Huge increase in mainline 11,615 or a 13.8% increase, the net drop coming primarily from Endeavor. Outbound was up 11.4% and Inbound up 8.5%. Also increased market share to 19.1% from 18.3%. Definitely a good month for DL.

4. B6 - second of the drop offs, 72,147 vs 75,268, down 3,121 or 4.1%, like WN, outbound fared better (3% down) than inbound (5.4% down), market share dropped from 14% to 12.8%..

5. UA - maintain 5th spot, with a big but.. 51,693 vs 53,575 down 1,882 or 3.5%, big changes were a reduction in mainline of 16.1% off set by Republic and Mesa, but not enough to make up the gap, market share dropped out of the 10% level to 9.2%. The "but" i hear you ask.. well that comes in at #6

6. NK - 3rd highest YOY growth with 8.7% or 3,733 (46,518 vs 42,785) the split was in favor of inbound at 9.2% or 1,906, that leaves them around 5K short of UA, given UA's continuing reductions, I could see the distinct possibility of these switching next year, it's a long time to wait, but i will be curious to see if it comes about in the end.

7. F9 - First year in a December with 11,558 pax, generating 2% market share, again slight balance towards outbound.

8. International - 8% up for the month albeit only 748 increase, Jazz up 11.5%, DL up 7.2% and just as important EI up 5% (234)


[u]Year and 5 year analysis (2015 thru 2019)

As it's the end of the year, time to take stock of where we are. I will still note the airlines in their market share order, but will do a Year 18 vs 19 analysis and a 5 year analysis too, so you can see how the various airlines have fared over that time.

#1 - AA

18 vs 19
1,648,173 vs 1,607,934 up 40,239 or 2.5%. Modest growth overall, mainline up 70,635 or 5.9%, which shows AA is bringing in bigger aircraft and supporting the routes, there was almost a 100% trade off against Transstates/Go Jet, who dropped to 0, big increases also from Envoy and PSA and Skywest had their first year, offset with a drop from Piedmont.
Outbound - 819,419 vs 800,668 up 18,751 or 2.3%
Inbound - 828,754 vs 807,266 up 21,488 or 2.7%
Market Share increase from 24.1% to 24.4%

15 vs 19
1,648,173 vs 1,508,423 up 139,750 or 9.3%. Modest growth overall and fairly consistent at just under 2% a year on average. massive switch in flying with mainline up 501,960 or 65.3%, also increases by PSA and Skywest and Piedmont, traded off against Air Wisconsin gone (181,438), Transstates gone (60,222), and Republic massively reduced (283,131), all points to bigger gauge routes from AA.
Outbound - 819,419 vs 753,762 up 65,657 or 8.7%
Inbound - 828,754 vs 754,661 up 74,093 or 9.8%
Interestingly however, due to moves elsewhere Market Share has actually decreased from 25.4% to 24.4%, but they have taken #1 spot from WN since 2017..

#2 - WN

18 vs 19
Sadly the only way is down for WN in regards to BDL, but that reduction is allowing other airlines to flourish in the market and buoy the overall number.

1,419,693 vs 1,550,453 down 130,760 or 8.4%. this is pretty self explanatory however coupled with DL's growth pattern over the year there is a very great possibility that they could switch places in 2020, time will tell of course and once the Max's return, may some of the flying will too. But for now.. the trend is very much in the negative.

Outbound - 712,697 vs 779,267 down 66,570 or 8.5%
Inbound - 706,996 vs 771,186 down 64,190 or 8.3%
Market Share decrease from 23.3% to 21.0%

15 vs 19
1,419,693 vs 1,647,931 down 228,238 or 13.8%. as I noted above, WN's reductions have really opened the door for others to walk in and you will see that below, but giving up #1 slot even with the max reductions has to be a calculated philosophy by WN to pull down by this amount and i see the trend continuing in 2020.

Outbound - 712,697 vs 827,147 down 114,450 or 13.8%
Inbound - 706,996 vs 820,784 down 113,788 or 13.9%
Market share has dropped from 27.8% down to 21% so roughly 1.2% per year

#3 - DL

18 vs 19
DL is an interesting position while it has maintained it's #3 slot the gap to WN has closed by nearly 200K pax this year alone, suggesting if that trend continues, that #2 is very much up for grabs in 2020.

1,324,456 vs 1,262,561 up 61,895 or 4.9%. and this is why WN are at risk of losing their spot, 68K increase in mainline and 18K increase in Endeavor with a trade off against Skywest of around 28K

Outbound - 661,769 vs 626,692 up 35,077 or 5,6%
Inbound - 662,687 vs 635,869 up 26,818 or 4.2%, interesting to see only an 1,100 split in inbound and outbound.
Market Share increase 19.6% vs 18.9% cements their #3 position but only 1.4% short now of WN.

15 vs 19
1,324,456 vs 1,309,908 up 14,548 or 1.1%. so interestingly over a 5 year stretch DL has gone pretty flat overall, 2018 was actually their lowest point during the period, which accentuates the increase from 2018, so who knows, will the trajectory continue, or are they topping out. they have WN there for the taking in terms of pax numbers, but will they...

Outbound - 661,769 vs 654,065 up 7,704 or 1.0%
Inbound - 662,687 vs 655,843 up 6,844 or 1.0%
Despite the 18 vs 19 increase, Market share has actually dropped from 22.1% down to 19.6% as a result of their limited overall growth and new entrants into the market.

#4 - B6

18 vs 19
B6 is out on its own, no chance of catching DL and little chance of being overtaken from below, the nearest challenger UA is getting further behind and then NK is nowhere near moving up either.

883,514 vs 847,899 up 35,615 or 4.2%. not a bad increase overall, but there have been ups and downs during the year, so we shall see if the trend continues or not.

Outbound - 446,788 vs 426,987 up 19,801 or 4.6%
Inbound - 436,726 vs 420,912 up 15,814 or 3.8%, nice to see the outbound % increase more, shows folks are using the flights from the BDL area.
Market Share increased by 0.4% from 12.7% to 13.1%, which in the face of big increases elsewhere, is just ok.

15 vs 19
883,514 vs 849,892 up 33,622 or 4.0%. similar situation to DL, where 2018 was the lowest point in the 5 year period, which accentuates the increase from 2018 as well. so it will be interesting to see if they do even more in 2020, while 883K is their highest, one wonders if they are actually going to increase further and break the 900K mark, or this is about it for them.

Outbound - 446,788 vs 424,457 up 22,331 or 5.3%
Inbound - 436,726 vs 425,435 up 11,291 or 2.7% , this is one of the larger shifts to outbound, almost double the increase vs inboud, again, folks in BDL using the services,.
Again Despite the 18 vs 19 increase, Market share has actually dropped from 14.3% down to 13.1% as a result of their limited overall growth and new entrants into the market as a whole.

#5 - UA

18 vs 19
UA is also in limbo, stuck in 6th place, and while there I don't think there is much danger of NK catching them, the gap narrowed by 110K between 2018 and 2019, which is significant, should NK try and grow further into the market.

694,643 vs 764,229 down 69,586 or 9.1%. the question here is whether this is a course correction by UA or it's the start of a trend, as you will see, the 2015 vs 2019 numbers show a very different story. All the regionals and mainline were down YOY with Mesa the only increase in flying to the tune of 46,637 pax, but the rest knocked that out of the park sadly.

Outbound - 347,974 vs 382,804 down 34,830 or 9.1%,
Inbound - 346,669 vs 381,425 down 34,756 or also 9.1%,
Market Share decreased by 1.2% from 11.5% to 10.3%, albeit as noted above 2018 was their biggest number, so the change is accentuated.

15 vs 19
694,643 vs 561,297 up 133,346 or 23.8%, so over 5 years a roughly 4.5% increase , which actually is not that bad considering and shows commitment to the market, but the blip from 18 to 19 might signal a new trend, we won't know until we start seeing the 2020 numbers roll in. Unlike the 18 to 19 flying, the 15 to 19 flying is entirely a switch from regionals to mainline, 369K more mainline pax with the biggest drop coming from Skywest.

Outbound - 347,974 vs vs 282,365 up 65,609 or 23.2%
Inbound - 346,669 vs 278,932 up 67,737 or 24.3% , another scenario with an almost 50/50 split with inbound and outbound.

So for UA, their market share over the period actually increased from 9.5% to 10.3%, despite the 18/19 drop.


#6 - NK

18 vs 19
NK continue to grow at BDL, and hopefully we can see the trend continue, but a 500K plus number in 3 years is pretty huge growth factor, so do they back off and cement what they have or continue to forge ahead?

514,355 vs 471,277 up 43,078 or 9.1%. this shows the catching of UA because of their reduction.

Outbound - 256,231 vs 233,750 up 22,481 or 9.6%,
Inbound - 258,124 vs 237,527 up 20,597 or also 8.7%, yet another outbound growth higher than that of the inbound. Consistent situation here.
Market Share increased by 0.5% from 7.1% to 7.6%.

15 vs 19
As NK weren't flying in 2015, everything would be 100% growth, but 7.6% market share and 500K+ pax has made a name for themselves in this airport, this story will continue to be 1 to keep an eye on for sure.


#7 - International

18 vs 19
Overall a slight reduction from 18 to 19 by less than 1,000 pax, which means the remaining international routes are continuing to hold their own

157,164 vs 158,109 down 945 or 0.6%.

Breakdown

EI - 84,965 vs 82,878 up 2,087 or 2.5% - steady as she goes for EI after a tiny dip from 17 to 18 a nice increase for 19
QK (Jazz) - 65,574 vs 60,708 up 4,866 or 8% - the switch to Jazz has gone very well from ZX (Air Georgian), with this growth, but will we see further growth in 20...
DL - drop from 10,702 to 6,625 a 38% drop, not much to say here, but clearly a big drop in their international routes.
D8 - dropped all routes in 2018.

15 vs 19
Only DL and ZX were flying in 2015, DL at 10K and ZX at 45K, so the drop in DL is about the same and the Canadian flying has grown by almost 45%, quite impressive.

Last but not least, the new kid on the block with F9, 110K pax in 2019 , 55,696 outbound, 54,110 inbound, it's only a 1.6% market share, but we will see where this goes in 2020. The only way, unless they use their dartboard approach is up.

So to my year end estimate, I ended up 17K over the number as B6, DL, NK, UA and WN all fell below what i thought and only AA and F9 were above. Final total: 6,751,804...

So what about 2020... well based on the growth trajectory from 15 to 19, it's running about 2.7% a year which could potentially put BDL at 6.93m this year, if we use the 18 vs 19 growth then we get 6.83m.. either way growth is good right?


I will post the others (PVD and MHT) when they are released.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
rnav2dlrey
Posts: 382
Joined: Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:10 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:53 am

UA dropped EWR-BDL completely, as well as BDL-SFO (which was only flown seasonally in 2018 i believe - i could have my hears mixed up). unless they add a second frequency to DEN, they’ll continue the downward trend in 2020.

the EWR drop made me (a UA/*A flyer) shift more of my trips to BOS, especially this winter because i want to avoid IRROPS nightmares.
 
PVD523
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:01 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:50 am

Write-up on some WN numbers from the WN network thread: https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/27/southwest-airlines-top-airports-by-the-numbers/

MHT and PVD combined owned four of the top five connecting routes through MDW over the time period the article cited, with both airports flowing traffic out to LAS and PHX.
 
F27500
Posts: 831
Joined: Sun May 07, 2017 12:52 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:21 pm

uconn99 wrote:
I don't remember AA cutting flights in the past, HVN is down to 2x daily to PHL (Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday) and 1x daily (Saturday, Tuesday, Wednesday) for January/February. CLT remains at 1x SAT only.

https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/articl ... ir-service


Seems like a great way to kill off a market. 1 or 2 flights a day? Don't even bother. All they're doing is making HVN even more of a joke to the local area and travellers with this meager schedule.
 
maximairways
Posts: 143
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:05 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:26 pm

rnav2dlrey wrote:
UA dropped EWR-BDL completely, as well as BDL-SFO (which was only flown seasonally in 2018 i believe - i could have my hears mixed up). unless they add a second frequency to DEN, they’ll continue the downward trend in 2020.

the EWR drop made me (a UA/*A flyer) shift more of my trips to BOS, especially this winter because i want to avoid IRROPS nightmares.


In the summer there is a 2x DEN and 2x IAH scheduled.
 
aaflyer777
Posts: 286
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2014 6:37 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:23 pm

PVD523 wrote:
Write-up on some WN numbers from the WN network thread: https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/27/southwest-airlines-top-airports-by-the-numbers/

MHT and PVD combined owned four of the top five connecting routes through MDW over the time period the article cited, with both airports flowing traffic out to LAS and PHX.


Wow thats really interesting, I'm surprised there's that much traffic between MHT-LAS. Makes you wonder why they don't try and bring that flight back at least seasonally, its not like that would cost them passengers in BOS since they don't fly BOS-LAS.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3796
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:49 pm

aaflyer777 wrote:
PVD523 wrote:
Write-up on some WN numbers from the WN network thread: https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/27/southwest-airlines-top-airports-by-the-numbers/

MHT and PVD combined owned four of the top five connecting routes through MDW over the time period the article cited, with both airports flowing traffic out to LAS and PHX.


Wow thats really interesting, I'm surprised there's that much traffic between MHT-LAS. Makes you wonder why they don't try and bring that flight back at least seasonally, its not like that would cost them passengers in BOS since they don't fly BOS-LAS.


While the PDEW on PVD-LAS was only 61 passengers per day in Q3 2019, WN can probably make PVD-LAS nonstop service work due to the significant amount of passengers connecting to LAX and SAN from PVD in addition to O&D traffic between PVD and LAS.

The lack of PVD-BNA nonstop service is a bigger hole than the lack of PVD-LAS nonstop service is as the PDEW on PVD-BNA was 109 passengers per day in Q3 2019. WN also can likely make PVD-BNA nonstop service work, even with WN serving BNA nonstop from BOS, as there is enough O&D traffic between PVD and BNA to support PVD-BNA nonstop service on WN along with WN being able to offer connections to other destinations from PVD through BNA if WN re-adds PVD-BNA nonstop service.

I had also mentioned WN re-adding PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN nonstop service as WN had been able to make these two routes work in the past, even subsequent to WN adding BOS-DEN nonstop service.
 
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LotsaRunway
Posts: 385
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:23 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:00 am

jplatts wrote:
aaflyer777 wrote:
PVD523 wrote:
Write-up on some WN numbers from the WN network thread: https://www.anna.aero/2020/01/27/southwest-airlines-top-airports-by-the-numbers/

MHT and PVD combined owned four of the top five connecting routes through MDW over the time period the article cited, with both airports flowing traffic out to LAS and PHX.


Wow thats really interesting, I'm surprised there's that much traffic between MHT-LAS. Makes you wonder why they don't try and bring that flight back at least seasonally, its not like that would cost them passengers in BOS since they don't fly BOS-LAS.


While the PDEW on PVD-LAS was only 61 passengers per day in Q3 2019, WN can probably make PVD-LAS nonstop service work due to the significant amount of passengers connecting to LAX and SAN from PVD in addition to O&D traffic between PVD and LAS.

The lack of PVD-BNA nonstop service is a bigger hole than the lack of PVD-LAS nonstop service is as the PDEW on PVD-BNA was 109 passengers per day in Q3 2019. WN also can likely make PVD-BNA nonstop service work, even with WN serving BNA nonstop from BOS, as there is enough O&D traffic between PVD and BNA to support PVD-BNA nonstop service on WN along with WN being able to offer connections to other destinations from PVD through BNA if WN re-adds PVD-BNA nonstop service.

I had also mentioned WN re-adding PVD-DEN and MHT-DEN nonstop service as WN had been able to make these two routes work in the past, even subsequent to WN adding BOS-DEN nonstop service.

I wouldn’t put too much faith in the PVD/MHT-LAS O&D numbers. They are both much higher if they recaptured the leakage to BOS. Reintroducing a nonstop at a competitive price will cause the numbers to spike.

WN mentioned once when cutting the long haul that they didn’t want to funnel west coast connections from the Northeast through LAS. The same may be true for connecting in DEN. So there is that for whatever it’s worth.
 
HVNandrew
Posts: 552
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:05 am

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:21 am

F27500 wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
I don't remember AA cutting flights in the past, HVN is down to 2x daily to PHL (Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday) and 1x daily (Saturday, Tuesday, Wednesday) for January/February. CLT remains at 1x SAT only.

https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/articl ... ir-service


Seems like a great way to kill off a market. 1 or 2 flights a day? Don't even bother. All they're doing is making HVN even more of a joke to the local area and travellers with this meager schedule.

1 flight a day a few days a week is pretty bleak. That just doesn't provide adequate options for most people. To me the current service level speaks volumes about the market and its performance.

Extending the runway has been portrayed by some as the saving grace for HVN that will result in a plethora of new service, but I just don't see it. Airlines could start service to east coast/midwest hubs tomorrow if they wanted to. Those E75s flying down to CLT could also fly to IAD, DTW, etc., but nobody is clamoring to fly those routes. For whatever reason, airlines have by and large seem to have determined the HVN market just isn't worth it for them. Perhaps because the market is already effectively served by BDL/NYC/HPN, and adding service to HVN would just (a) involve deploying extra resources into the area, while (b) only drawing passengers away from those other airports as opposed to generating actual organic passenger growth in the area, which passengers are (c) not willing to pay a premium to fly out of HVN. More equipment, the same amount of people, and no revenue premium would not be an attractive combo for an airline.
 
jplatts
Posts: 3796
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:13 am

LotsaRunway wrote:
I wouldn’t put too much faith in the PVD/MHT-LAS O&D numbers. They are both much higher if they recaptured the leakage to BOS. Reintroducing a nonstop at a competitive price will cause the numbers to spike.


LotsaRunway wrote:
WN mentioned once when cutting the long haul that they didn’t want to funnel west coast connections from the Northeast through LAS. The same may be true for connecting in DEN. So there is that for whatever it’s worth.


WN still serves LAS nonstop from BUF and PIT in the Northeast, but BUF and PIT are both located west of BWI whereas PHL, LGA, BDL, PVD, BOS, and MHT are all located east of BWI.

WN also currently serves DEN nonstop from BOS, BDL, LGA, PHL, and PIT in the Northeast, and WN also has seasonal nonstop service to DEN from ALB and BUF in the Northeast.

Here were the number of passengers and the load factors for DEN-PVD, DEN-MHT, and DEN-BOS on WN back in 2013:
BOS-DEN - 180940 passengers, 91.90% load factor
MHT-DEN - 79327 passengers, 92.74% load factor
PVD-DEN - 77610 passengers, 89.51% load factor

WN re-adding MHT-DEN and PVD-DEN nonstop service are both possibilities since
(a) WN has stated that it still has plans to significantly expand its DEN operation,
(b) WN had been able to make MHT-DEN and PVD-DEN nonstop service work in the past, even after adding BOS-DEN nonstop service, and
(c) WN would be able to offer 1-stop connections to a few additional destinations from MHT and PVD if it re-adds MHT-DEN and PVD-DEN nonstop service.
 
PVD757
Posts: 3286
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:23 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:24 am

The numbers and logic often point to obvious opportunities for MHT and PVD but the airlines have clearly decided to place their eggs in the BOS basket. The rich keep getting richer it seems.
 
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ChrisNH38
Posts: 267
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:53 pm

Re: The Rest of New England Aviation Thread (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN/BGR) - 2020

Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:39 am

If you corralled all the people going from MHT to any city west of PHX, WN would get them. In my view I’ve always felt that WN’s service was way too North-South at the expense of East-West. Yes, there’s MDW, but in the dead of winter I want to connect at a warm-weather station if my destination is LAX, SAN, SJC, SFO, OAK, SEA or anyplace like that.
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH

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