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Erebus
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 4:49 pm

zanl188 wrote:
Dm-2 extended. But for how long?

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-crew-d ... a-upgrade/

My opinion is DM-2 should be a 2 week mission. There’s value in a post flight examination of the spacecraft before flying the next mission. Short mission buys more time to make any needed fixes.


You get more time to make fixes. But you may not get enough data to identify potential issues with a short stay. Longer duration in space will give them better data to validate or identify fixes needed on the performance in extreme space conditions and cycles.
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 5:51 pm

zanl188 wrote:
Dm-2 extended. But for how long?

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-crew-d ... a-upgrade/

My opinion is DM-2 should be a 2 week mission. There’s value in a post flight examination of the spacecraft before flying the next mission. Short mission buys more time to make any needed fixes.

That's what DM-1 was for. There's no reason to cut DM-2 short if they don't have any trouble getting there.
You also have to consider that there's no scheduled bus service to the ISS. Theses guys are staying longer because they need a crew there.
Last edited by Nomadd on Wed May 06, 2020 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 06, 2020 5:55 pm

Tugger wrote:
zanl188 wrote:
Dm-2 extended. But for how long?

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-crew-d ... a-upgrade/

My opinion is DM-2 should be a 2 week mission. There’s value in a post flight examination of the spacecraft before flying the next mission. Short mission buys more time to make any needed fixes.


Wow, they are talking about up to 119 days up there. From the link:
Once the vehicle has completed its objectives successfully, it will be certified for a crewed flight. Currently, SpaceX is nearing completion on the next Dragon spacecraft, which will ferry four astronauts to the station for a long-duration mission. During the news briefings, SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell announced that the spacecraft for that mission is nearing completion and should arrive in Florida in the next couple of months.

Shireman said that the length of the Demo-2 mission was directly tied to that vehicle’s progress. “What we would like to do, from a station perspective, is to keep them on orbit as long as we can until that Crew-1 vehicle is just about ready to go, bring Demo-2 home, allow that certification work to be completed and launch Crew-1,” he said.

Steve Stich, NASA’s deputy manager of the commercial crew program, said that at minimum, the DM-2 crew would stay on orbit about a month. Their maximum stay would be no more than 119 days, due to the potential degradation of the Dragon spacecraft’s solar panels.

Tugg


Maybe longer. There's no reason to think the solar arrays will degrade. It's just a certification issue. They'll keep an eye on them during the mission, and could OK them for longer than 119 days if circumstances warrant.
Beware reporters who paraphrase instead of quote.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 12:07 am

Starship SN4 static fire test completed. Impressive fireball. Maybe a little hop coming soon and a 20KM leap late this month, if all goes well.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/spacex-has-fired-starships-raptor-engine-and-the-vehicle-still-stands/?amp=1
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 2:47 am

DarkKnight5 wrote:
Starship SN4 static fire test completed. Impressive fireball. Maybe a little hop coming soon and a 20KM leap late this month, if all goes well.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/spacex-has-fired-starships-raptor-engine-and-the-vehicle-still-stands/?amp=1


There's another one tonight.
 
zanl188
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 12:06 pm

Nomadd wrote:
zanl188 wrote:
Dm-2 extended. But for how long?

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-crew-d ... a-upgrade/

My opinion is DM-2 should be a 2 week mission. There’s value in a post flight examination of the spacecraft before flying the next mission. Short mission buys more time to make any needed fixes.

That's what DM-1 was for. There's no reason to cut DM-2 short if they don't have any trouble getting there.
You also have to consider that there's no scheduled bus service to the ISS. Theses guys are staying longer because they need a crew there.


DM-1 was not a fully configured spacecraft. No load put on life support, etc. Seems aggressive to me to put a new spacecraft and crew on a open ended mission with certification and completion of next spacecraft tied in. If there is a significant hiccup they’ll likely lose ISS crew time anyway - can’t be that big a factor.
Legal considerations provided by: Dewey, Cheatum, and Howe
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu May 07, 2020 10:43 pm

zanl188 wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
zanl188 wrote:
Dm-2 extended. But for how long?

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-crew-d ... a-upgrade/

My opinion is DM-2 should be a 2 week mission. There’s value in a post flight examination of the spacecraft before flying the next mission. Short mission buys more time to make any needed fixes.

That's what DM-1 was for. There's no reason to cut DM-2 short if they don't have any trouble getting there.
You also have to consider that there's no scheduled bus service to the ISS. Theses guys are staying longer because they need a crew there.


DM-1 was not a fully configured spacecraft. No load put on life support, etc. Seems aggressive to me to put a new spacecraft and crew on a open ended mission with certification and completion of next spacecraft tied in. If there is a significant hiccup they’ll likely lose ISS crew time anyway - can’t be that big a factor.

Do you think they should leave the station half manned for the next four months? The extended stay will be far more valuable for certifying systems than 2 weeks would. At some point you have to start having confidence in your systems. Doing everything sequentially is why some companies take ten years to get anything built.
SpaceX wasn't payed or required to build the next Dragon this soon. They got one ahead of the game on their own dime because they wanted to be able to handle things if the other guys screwed up. You know. The ones who do everything by the book, one step at a time for twice the money, and still can't get the job done.
You have to be able to do two things at once. You could waste decades waiting for every step to pass through 6 months of review. The first guys who ran Starlink didn't understand that.
 
zanl188
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 3:09 am

Nomadd wrote:
zanl188 wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
That's what DM-1 was for. There's no reason to cut DM-2 short if they don't have any trouble getting there.
You also have to consider that there's no scheduled bus service to the ISS. Theses guys are staying longer because they need a crew there.


DM-1 was not a fully configured spacecraft. No load put on life support, etc. Seems aggressive to me to put a new spacecraft and crew on a open ended mission with certification and completion of next spacecraft tied in. If there is a significant hiccup they’ll likely lose ISS crew time anyway - can’t be that big a factor.

Do you think they should leave the station half manned for the next four months? The extended stay will be far more valuable for certifying systems than 2 weeks would. At some point you have to start having confidence in your systems. Doing everything sequentially is why some companies take ten years to get anything built.
SpaceX wasn't payed or required to build the next Dragon this soon. They got one ahead of the game on their own dime because they wanted to be able to handle things if the other guys screwed up. You know. The ones who do everything by the book, one step at a time for twice the money, and still can't get the job done.
You have to be able to do two things at once. You could waste decades waiting for every step to pass through 6 months of review. The first guys who ran Starlink didn't understand that.


What’s the rush? Screw up with a crewed spacecraft and station will be half manned a lot longer than 4 months.

SpaceX is leading a bit of a charmed life. They need to be careful that the odds don’t catch up to them.
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rfields5421
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 3:48 am

zanl188 wrote:
SpaceX is leading a bit of a charmed life. They need to be careful that the odds don’t catch up to them.


Let's see - their first crewed mission certified capsule was destroyed in a test at the Cape and the current crewed mission is in the second capsule, almost a year late.

The testing in south Texas has had a few failures.

Those are just a couple of the mistakes Space-X has made. And they analyze what happened and test a solution to avoid repeating their mistakes.

What Space-X is doing is continuing to work toward their goal.

What the company is NOT doing is wringing their hands, saying failures are not a problem, and stopping the entire program for a single glitch. As has been traditional in space flight in the US from the beginning.

Now, don't think I'm saying Space-X is perfect. I remember Eric Sevareid saying before one of the early Gemini missions that the exploration of space had been extremely lucky, but people had to remember that mistakes would happen, people would die in the exploration of space. Mistakes are unavoidable in something as complex as spacecraft.

No one wants it to happen. Space-X certainly is not cutting corners. But things do happen. Their approach seems to be working.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 5:39 am

With the next launch, E 1-ON Musk will be hurling updated Starlink satellites into the cold, unfriendly void above.

The "visorsat" idea, designed to darken the satellites, is described here.

https://astronomynow.com/2020/05/05/spa ... nk-launch/
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Fri May 08, 2020 4:33 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
zanl188 wrote:
SpaceX is leading a bit of a charmed life. They need to be careful that the odds don’t catch up to them.

Let's see - their first crewed mission certified capsule was destroyed in a test at the Cape and the current crewed mission is in the second capsule, almost a year late.
The testing in south Texas has had a few failures.
Those are just a couple of the mistakes Space-X has made. And they analyze what happened and test a solution to avoid repeating their mistakes.
What Space-X is doing is continuing to work toward their goal.
What the company is NOT doing is wringing their hands, saying failures are not a problem, and stopping the entire program for a single glitch. As has been traditional in space flight in the US from the beginning.
Now, don't think I'm saying Space-X is perfect. I remember Eric Sevareid saying before one of the early Gemini missions that the exploration of space had been extremely lucky, but people had to remember that mistakes would happen, people would die in the exploration of space. Mistakes are unavoidable in something as complex as spacecraft.
No one wants it to happen. Space-X certainly is not cutting corners. But things do happen. Their approach seems to be working.


After SN1 blew in Texas, it was about one week before they had a test tank cobbled together out of SN2 parts and tested it to prove the problem was solved.
How long would the "right" way of handling that incident have taken?
(I was there about 20 minutes after that test)
https://youtu.be/0Gg-VJcPww4

"What's the rush" is that they don't want to be dead of old age before they see this dream filled. People who make fun of them for blowing things up seem to miss the fact that they can build, blow up, redesign and rebuild ten prototypes in far less time for far less money than the conventional method.
The reason they lost the first Dragon 2 was that they do about six times as many hardware tests as the guys who spend five years on computer simulations and analysis before blowing something up. The capsule blew while being tested after it had flown and re-entered and at much higher vibration levels than it will ever see in service. There was no need for that test, but the company doesn't stop at contract requirements. There was no requirement for them to have the ability to take up the slack for a Boeing no show, but they did that on their own dime anyway.
All of that rambling meant to point out that you can't treat these guys the same as you would another company whose goal is meet requirements for the minimum possible cost and considers anything above that as a waste of money. They want to see humanity off this rock, not sit around and count their doubloons. And they can't do that by taking six months after every step to analyze every screw and cupholder on the ship.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 12:34 am

Bravo!
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 09, 2020 1:57 am

zanl188 wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
zanl188 wrote:

DM-1 was not a fully configured spacecraft. No load put on life support, etc. Seems aggressive to me to put a new spacecraft and crew on a open ended mission with certification and completion of next spacecraft tied in. If there is a significant hiccup they’ll likely lose ISS crew time anyway - can’t be that big a factor.

Do you think they should leave the station half manned for the next four months? The extended stay will be far more valuable for certifying systems than 2 weeks would. At some point you have to start having confidence in your systems. Doing everything sequentially is why some companies take ten years to get anything built.
SpaceX wasn't payed or required to build the next Dragon this soon. They got one ahead of the game on their own dime because they wanted to be able to handle things if the other guys screwed up. You know. The ones who do everything by the book, one step at a time for twice the money, and still can't get the job done.
You have to be able to do two things at once. You could waste decades waiting for every step to pass through 6 months of review. The first guys who ran Starlink didn't understand that.


What’s the rush? Screw up with a crewed spacecraft and station will be half manned a lot longer than 4 months.

SpaceX is leading a bit of a charmed life. They need to be careful that the odds don’t catch up to them.

Well it’s nice to bring vagaries to an argument. There’s one company that has demonstrated over 20 successful trips to ISS and one test with an almost full-up vehicle. The extra power draw is a few systems is an easy risk to quantify, understand, and mitigate without the the need for charms and undefined odds.
 
zanl188
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 9:45 am

Nomadd wrote:
After SN1 blew in Texas, it was about one week before they had a test tank cobbled together out of SN2 parts and tested it to prove the problem was solved.
How long would the "right" way of handling that incident have taken?
(I was there about 20 minutes after that test)
https://youtu.be/0Gg-VJcPww4

"What's the rush" is that they don't want to be dead of old age before they see this dream filled. People who make fun of them for blowing things up seem to miss the fact that they can build, blow up, redesign and rebuild ten prototypes in far less time for far less money than the conventional method.
The reason they lost the first Dragon 2 was that they do about six times as many hardware tests as the guys who spend five years on computer simulations and analysis before blowing something up. The capsule blew while being tested after it had flown and re-entered and at much higher vibration levels than it will ever see in service. There was no need for that test, but the company doesn't stop at contract requirements. There was no requirement for them to have the ability to take up the slack for a Boeing no show, but they did that on their own dime anyway.
All of that rambling meant to point out that you can't treat these guys the same as you would another company whose goal is meet requirements for the minimum possible cost and considers anything above that as a waste of money. They want to see humanity off this rock, not sit around and count their doubloons. And they can't do that by taking six months after every step to analyze every screw and cupholder on the ship.


Their “dream” is Starship. We’re talking about a quite different spacecraft. Again, where’s the rush? Is there a contract milestone, and associated payment, that they need to avoid bankruptcy/program failure? What justifies the risk? No need for SpaceX fanboy spiel, thanks.
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rfields5421
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 6:41 pm

zanl188 wrote:
Their “dream” is Starship. We’re talking about a quite different spacecraft. Again, where’s the rush? Is there a contract milestone, and associated payment, that they need to avoid bankruptcy/program failure? What justifies the risk? ….


The 'risk' is SpaceX bottom line. Frankly they are making money, and getting more contracts because their are moving at a pace that customers can see holds a promise of getting the job done one time. Even when they have a spectacular failure, they make it right with the customer.

We've been conditioned forever that the 'old way' is the only safe way.

SpaceX management disagrees. Space flight can be done safely, and profitably, when run as a business. It is not a rush, just a business.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sun May 10, 2020 9:39 pm

zanl188 wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
After SN1 blew in Texas, it was about one week before they had a test tank cobbled together out of SN2 parts and tested it to prove the problem was solved.
How long would the "right" way of handling that incident have taken?
(I was there about 20 minutes after that test)
https://youtu.be/0Gg-VJcPww4

"What's the rush" is that they don't want to be dead of old age before they see this dream filled. People who make fun of them for blowing things up seem to miss the fact that they can build, blow up, redesign and rebuild ten prototypes in far less time for far less money than the conventional method.
The reason they lost the first Dragon 2 was that they do about six times as many hardware tests as the guys who spend five years on computer simulations and analysis before blowing something up. The capsule blew while being tested after it had flown and re-entered and at much higher vibration levels than it will ever see in service. There was no need for that test, but the company doesn't stop at contract requirements. There was no requirement for them to have the ability to take up the slack for a Boeing no show, but they did that on their own dime anyway.
All of that rambling meant to point out that you can't treat these guys the same as you would another company whose goal is meet requirements for the minimum possible cost and considers anything above that as a waste of money. They want to see humanity off this rock, not sit around and count their doubloons. And they can't do that by taking six months after every step to analyze every screw and cupholder on the ship.


Their “dream” is Starship. We’re talking about a quite different spacecraft. Again, where’s the rush? Is there a contract milestone, and associated payment, that they need to avoid bankruptcy/program failure? What justifies the risk? No need for SpaceX fanboy spiel, thanks.

SpaceX has 20 CRS missions and one dragon 2 demo mission to provide data on the ability to park on station for extended periods and operate safely. This is Quantifiably not a great risk. Also, the parachute test regime proves that NASA is not cutting any corners in terms of evaluating safety margin.
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 5:01 am

zanl188 wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
After SN1 blew in Texas, it was about one week before they had a test tank cobbled together out of SN2 parts and tested it to prove the problem was solved.
How long would the "right" way of handling that incident have taken?
(I was there about 20 minutes after that test)
https://youtu.be/0Gg-VJcPww4

"What's the rush" is that they don't want to be dead of old age before they see this dream filled. People who make fun of them for blowing things up seem to miss the fact that they can build, blow up, redesign and rebuild ten prototypes in far less time for far less money than the conventional method.
The reason they lost the first Dragon 2 was that they do about six times as many hardware tests as the guys who spend five years on computer simulations and analysis before blowing something up. The capsule blew while being tested after it had flown and re-entered and at much higher vibration levels than it will ever see in service. There was no need for that test, but the company doesn't stop at contract requirements. There was no requirement for them to have the ability to take up the slack for a Boeing no show, but they did that on their own dime anyway.
All of that rambling meant to point out that you can't treat these guys the same as you would another company whose goal is meet requirements for the minimum possible cost and considers anything above that as a waste of money. They want to see humanity off this rock, not sit around and count their doubloons. And they can't do that by taking six months after every step to analyze every screw and cupholder on the ship.


Their “dream” is Starship. We’re talking about a quite different spacecraft. Again, where’s the rush? Is there a contract milestone, and associated payment, that they need to avoid bankruptcy/program failure? What justifies the risk? No need for SpaceX fanboy spiel, thanks.

You know, the insults really don't help your credibility any.
 
Lucifer656
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 3:44 pm

I'm starting to doubt they'll ever get it right, at this pace. At least not without a major rethink and redesign.

Uncharacteristically for SpaceX, the whole Starship program is starting to look like amateur hour at Boca Chica.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 12, 2020 4:09 pm

I really don’t think “contract milestones” and the associated mindset applies to SpaceX.

I think it is a good thing for all of us that SoaceX has developed or relearned the develop, fly, fail iterate model.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 12:01 am

Lucifer656 wrote:
I'm starting to doubt they'll ever get it right, at this pace. At least not without a major rethink and redesign.

Uncharacteristically for SpaceX, the whole Starship program is starting to look like amateur hour at Boca Chica.

With SpaceX, they are taking the Silicon Valley approach; basically, if you are going to fail, fail quickly, learn from the failure, and make adjustments as needed when you try again.

Hence, the rapid prototyping of Starship; they are more than happy to loose test articles at a fairly rapid pace because they can quickly dissect what went wrong, and get another test article built ASAP, incorporating lessons learned. They have a whole factory and assembly facility at Boca Chica, all dedicated to rapid prototyping of Starship.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 2:19 pm

Putting aside the obvious what is it about SpaceX that allows for their radically different approach to development?

Does anyone see any parallels to North Korea in the sense that both can test to fail because they have so much capability developed in house?
 
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Tugger
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 5:04 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
Putting aside the obvious what is it about SpaceX that allows for their radically different approach to development?

The key thing they have is no stock holders.

Being fully private failures don't make any stock holders nervous and want to sell, whacking their company value and clouding the picture. There are no stock holder to elect a board to "maximize shareholder value" gutting the productive talent pool. Those same non-existent shareholders also can't demand cost cuts to development and personnel overall so they can have dividends and stock buybacks and other crap that drives no value to the actual product being made.

(And as an aside I see zero similarity to NK.)

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Stitch
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 6:21 pm

Tugger wrote:
The key thing they have is no stock holders.


SpaceX does have stock (around 163 million shares outstanding as of their most recent offering), but the shares are not publicly-traded so the private investors who have purchased said stock appear to be comfortable with how the company is being run by management.
 
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Tugger
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 8:35 pm

Stitch wrote:
Tugger wrote:
The key thing they have is no stock holders.


SpaceX does have stock (around 163 million shares outstanding as of their most recent offering), but the shares are not publicly-traded so the private investors who have purchased said stock appear to be comfortable with how the company is being run by management.

Point taken, and that is what I meant. But you are right I was not accurate in how I stated it: It is not a publicly traded company.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 10:26 pm

One little tidbit for people who think SpaceX is all hype. NASA just signed a $1.8 billion contract for 18 RS-25 engines. That's apart from the billions spent developing the disposable version that was suppose to be cheaper than the original. That's $100 million per engine. SpaceX is putting out an engine with the same thrust that only weighs half as much for around $500 thousand and hopes to get the cost to half that.
1/2 of one percent the cost for a much more advanced, reusable engine of the same class. Hydrogen is a little harder to work with than methane, but really doesn't explain the engine costing 200 times as much.
If they get Starship going, it will cost about 1% of SLS for the same class payload. And they have the engine, which is most of building a new rocket.
"Revolutionary" doesn't begin to cover it. What do you think is going to happen if people can get payloads to orbit for $100 a kg?
Sorry if I sound a little crazy. Maybe watching that water tank fly from 1 1/2 miles away did something to my brain.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 11:43 pm

Stitch wrote:
Tugger wrote:
The key thing they have is no stock holders.


SpaceX does have stock (around 163 million shares outstanding as of their most recent offering), but the shares are not publicly-traded so the private investors who have purchased said stock appear to be comfortable with how the company is being run by management.

And SpaceX is very picky about their investors, as they want whomever their investors are to share the same values and mission SpaceX has. I think both Elon Musk and Gwynne Shotwell have both said that they could easily raise much more money for SpaceX by being less picky about their investors, but both are in agreement that they want whoever puts their money into SpaceX understands and supports what they are doing.
 
744SPX
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 13, 2020 11:56 pm

The Raptor engine is no joke, and proves SpaceX is legit. Finally the US has caught up with late 1960's Russian liquid fuel engine tech. (RD-270)

A Pratt engineer said back in the 90's that "the US is 20 years ahead of Russia in gas turbine technology and Russia is 20 years ahead of the US in liquid fuel rocket engine technology."

Now we've caught up on rocket tech and unfortunately for Russia they have stagnated on both rocket engine and gas turbines. What a waste.
 
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Daetrin
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu May 14, 2020 2:34 am

Nomadd wrote:
One little tidbit for people who think SpaceX is all hype. NASA just signed a $1.8 billion contract for 18 RS-25 engines. That's apart from the billions spent developing the disposable version that was suppose to be cheaper than the original. That's $100 million per engine. SpaceX is putting out an engine with the same thrust that only weighs half as much for around $500 thousand and hopes to get the cost to half that.
1/2 of one percent the cost for a much more advanced, reusable engine of the same class. Hydrogen is a little harder to work with than methane, but really doesn't explain the engine costing 200 times as much.
If they get Starship going, it will cost about 1% of SLS for the same class payload. And they have the engine, which is most of building a new rocket.
"Revolutionary" doesn't begin to cover it. What do you think is going to happen if people can get payloads to orbit for $100 a kg?
Sorry if I sound a little crazy. Maybe watching that water tank fly from 1 1/2 miles away did something to my brain.


I created an account to thank you for posting this. It is these types of nuggets that has had me lurking for years (about 10, actually) on this forum.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu May 14, 2020 5:22 am

It seems to me NK, like SpaceX has accomplished a lot more than the experts forecast. And done so spending a lot less.

I wonder if the fact that both have public failures has played a role in this?
 
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casinterest
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 5:52 pm

Possible Test fire of Starship mockup in a few minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9T8qfm5sv9I
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 7:25 pm

casinterest wrote:
Possible Test fire of Starship mockup in a few minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9T8qfm5sv9I

Went well.
That was streamed over my cracked Galaxy S7.
 
DarkKnight5
Posts: 224
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:36 pm

Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 7:52 pm

Nomadd wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Possible Test fire of Starship mockup in a few minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9T8qfm5sv9I

Went well.
That was streamed over my cracked Galaxy S7.

What did you make of the persistent flame at the bottom of the thrust skirt? No stream had a particularly good view of it because of the distance, so interested in any on-site observations.
 
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casinterest
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 8:12 pm

DarkKnight5 wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Possible Test fire of Starship mockup in a few minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9T8qfm5sv9I

Went well.
That was streamed over my cracked Galaxy S7.

What did you make of the persistent flame at the bottom of the thrust skirt? No stream had a particularly good view of it because of the distance, so interested in any on-site observations.



Need that hi def that Everyday Astronaught promised, but i bet it was some pained parts or possibly unspent fuel that splattered back up onto the surfaces. They are testing the engine, and while I would expect most of it to burn, they also aren't going for lift off, so some of the fuel may be making it back out.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 9:41 pm

Nomadd wrote:
Went well.
That was streamed over my cracked Galaxy S7.


Mr. Musk, give this man a new phone
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 19, 2020 11:18 pm

DarkKnight5 wrote:
Nomadd wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Possible Test fire of Starship mockup in a few minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9T8qfm5sv9I

Went well.
That was streamed over my cracked Galaxy S7.

What did you make of the persistent flame at the bottom of the thrust skirt? No stream had a particularly good view of it because of the distance, so interested in any on-site observations.

Looks like whatever they wrapped part of the launch mount in was burning. Some gray stuff.

Image

I still haven't seen anyone go down there. They must be having trouble safeing the pad for some reason. Maybe bad sensors, controls or something keeping them from de-methaning the tank or verifying they did so.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 12:07 am

Very interesting. Looks like padding to prevent damage if a mobile lift were to make contact. It doesn’t look present on the other side of the mount. Seems like foam wrapped in tape. Sort of silly if it’s not flame resistant.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 20, 2020 4:58 am

What happens next?
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 2:48 pm

I can’t find any updates on SN4 anywhere. Anyone know if they have safed the test site and returned workers or not? Hopefully nobody has to risk life and limb to get to the site.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Thu May 21, 2020 6:15 pm

Nomad was right, looks like the padding on the structure has some heat damage.

http://youtu.be/uH1BTbWTOWk

Also, go to 3:13 in the video, the source of the persistent fire appears to be some sort of attitude control thruster. Clearly it’s fueled by Methane, because cold nitrogen would not burn. Was this maybe the first attempt to test the ship’s real thruster system in advance of the next hop?

I guess that would make sense since the vehicle is so massive and liquid nitrogen may not provide the thrust necessary for maneuvering.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Sat May 23, 2020 3:27 pm

Demo-2 Mission has passed flight readiness review and is scheduled to launch with two astronauts on board May 27, 2020.

The Falcon 9 rocket for the launch completed its static fire test with the Crew Dragon capsule stacked on top. The mission appears to be proceeding smoothly.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 9:24 am

Tomorrow is the great day...

...and I wondered if Elon Musk ever had any idea for a cheap space station, basically renting out the station for material sciences and biomedical research. Could they build a centipede of Cargo/Crew Dragons, each with a Clampo-O-Tron Docking Port at the fore and aft end?
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
mxaxai
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 10:15 am

flyingturtle wrote:
Tomorrow is the great day...

...and I wondered if Elon Musk ever had any idea for a cheap space station, basically renting out the station for material sciences and biomedical research. Could they build a centipede of Cargo/Crew Dragons, each with a Clampo-O-Tron Docking Port at the fore and aft end?

I think you would need to add a Multi-Point Connector to allow more than one Docking Port per capsule...
Also, some extendable solar panels might be useful too. Crew Dragon power system looks pretty anemic compared to proper space stations.
 
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Stitch
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 2:51 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
...and I wondered if Elon Musk ever had any idea for a cheap space station, basically renting out the station for material sciences and biomedical research. Could they build a centipede of Cargo/Crew Dragons, each with a Clampo-O-Tron Docking Port at the fore and aft end?


He should have just worked with Bigelow and his inflatable modules (though if Bigelow Aerospace is now truly defunct, he should be able to get the assets for a nice price). A Falcon 9 took up BEAM to the ISS in 2016 and while B330 was too large for a Falcon 9, it could have easily been hoisted up by Falcon Heavy.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 5:46 pm

flyingturtle wrote:
Tomorrow is the great day...

...and I wondered if Elon Musk ever had any idea for a cheap space station, basically renting out the station for material sciences and biomedical research. Could they build a centipede of Cargo/Crew Dragons, each with a Clampo-O-Tron Docking Port at the fore and aft end?

I prefer the claw grabber. Still counts as a connection plus you make stations into worms of modern art. Just grab on anywhere. Elon could make a station shaped like a Cybertruck.
 
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Tugger
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 6:43 pm

DarkKnight5 wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
Tomorrow is the great day...

...and I wondered if Elon Musk ever had any idea for a cheap space station, basically renting out the station for material sciences and biomedical research. Could they build a centipede of Cargo/Crew Dragons, each with a Clampo-O-Tron Docking Port at the fore and aft end?

I prefer the claw grabber. Still counts as a connection plus you make stations into worms of modern art. Just grab on anywhere. Elon could make a station shaped like a Cybertruck.

So we're talking a kind of Minecraft in space.... That will be fun.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
rfields5421
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Tue May 26, 2020 8:54 pm

I'm seeing complaints on RV forums that Playalinda Beach is closed. Folks are showing up with their motorhomes planning to see the launch tomorrow.

Some are blaming COVID-19 restrictions, but that beach is always closed for takeoffs from that launch complex.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
DarkKnight5
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 5:18 am

rfields5421 wrote:
I'm seeing complaints on RV forums that Playalinda Beach is closed. Folks are showing up with their motorhomes planning to see the launch tomorrow.

Some are blaming COVID-19 restrictions, but that beach is always closed for takeoffs from that launch complex.

Thing I learned today: RV Forums are a thing, a thing big enough to warrant having more than one. Huh.
 
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Tugger
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 5:59 am

Launch is targeted for 4:33 p.m. ET

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
rfields5421
Posts: 6213
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:45 am

Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 12:36 pm

Tens of thousands of us live full-time in RVs in the US and Canada. I even have seven internet friends who live full-time in RVs and travel in Australia - we met on MS FS forums over 15 years ago.

RV folks are just as excited about the Space X launch as aviation folks. Or any launch returning astronauts to space.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments - 2020

Wed May 27, 2020 1:42 pm

How's the weather holding up in Florida? The forecast looks a bit average, and I saw they had storms passing over the facility a couple of hours ago with more on the way it seems...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.

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