User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:52 am

Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

In December an outbreak of viral pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China. The cases all originate at a seafood market. It has since been identified as a betacoronavirus showing somewhere between 70-90% genetic similarity with the SARS coronavirus. Airports have stepped up screening for fever and illness on passengers coming from Wuhan. People rushed out to buy n95 masks in Hong Kong.

Recent updates to the situation include the first death of an infected patient (6 patients remain in serious condition), and the first detection of the virus outside of China has been found in Thailand (I'm not sure if they were detected as a result of airport screening from these poor translations from Thai I've been reading but I think they might have been) in a tourist from Wuhan, and the virus has been named by the WHO as 2019-nCoV (not much of a name, I'll still think of it as the Wuhan coronavirus).

China keeps reporting the virus is not being transmitted from person to person, but there's reason to be skeptical. China is not always forthcoming about dangerous outbreaks within their borders.


Edit: I would also advise anyone flying through the East Asian - South East Asian region to get a flu shot if you haven't. Most of the adult travelers being quarantined at the airports are being found to be infected with influenza. With the likely increase in scale of the airport screenings following the discovery of the virus in Thailand it'd be a good step for avoiding quarantine.
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 3971
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:32 am

Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

I was also surprised that there is no discussion about this topic. Let’s hope this will not become a second SARS-event.
 
User avatar
SQ22
Moderator
Posts: 1702
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:37 am

Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

In December an outbreak of viral pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China. The cases all originate at a seafood market. It has since been identified as a betacoronavirus showing somewhere between 70-90% genetic similarity with the SARS coronavirus. Airports have stepped up screening for fever and illness on passengers coming from Wuhan. People rushed out to buy n95 masks in Hong Kong.

Recent updates to the situation include the first death of an infected patient (6 patients remain in serious condition), and the first detection of the virus outside of China has been found in Thailand (I'm not sure if they were detected as a result of airport screening from these poor translations from Thai I've been reading but I think they might have been) in a tourist from Wuhan, and the virus has been named by the WHO as 2019-nCoV (not much of a name, I'll still think of it as the Wuhan coronavirus).

China keeps reporting the virus is not being transmitted from person to person, but there's reason to be skeptical. China is not always forthcoming about dangerous outbreaks within their borders.


Edit: I would also advise anyone flying through the East Asian - South East Asian region to get a flu shot if you haven't. Most of the adult travelers being quarantined at the airports are being found to be infected with influenza. With the likely increase in scale of the airport screenings following the discovery of the virus in Thailand it'd be a good step for avoiding quarantine.


Please remember to provide a source when stating facts. Thanks.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:52 am

SQ22 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

In December an outbreak of viral pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China. The cases all originate at a seafood market. It has since been identified as a betacoronavirus showing somewhere between 70-90% genetic similarity with the SARS coronavirus. Airports have stepped up screening for fever and illness on passengers coming from Wuhan. People rushed out to buy n95 masks in Hong Kong.

Recent updates to the situation include the first death of an infected patient (6 patients remain in serious condition), and the first detection of the virus outside of China has been found in Thailand (I'm not sure if they were detected as a result of airport screening from these poor translations from Thai I've been reading but I think they might have been) in a tourist from Wuhan, and the virus has been named by the WHO as 2019-nCoV (not much of a name, I'll still think of it as the Wuhan coronavirus).

China keeps reporting the virus is not being transmitted from person to person, but there's reason to be skeptical. China is not always forthcoming about dangerous outbreaks within their borders.


Edit: I would also advise anyone flying through the East Asian - South East Asian region to get a flu shot if you haven't. Most of the adult travelers being quarantined at the airports are being found to be infected with influenza. With the likely increase in scale of the airport screenings following the discovery of the virus in Thailand it'd be a good step for avoiding quarantine.


Please remember to provide a source when stating facts. Thanks.


Hard to do when I'm covering news I've been watching for a couple of weeks that has trickled out in small tidbits, I guess WHO summarizes the basic info. https://www.who.int/csr/don/12-january- ... -china/en/

Article about the infected person in Thailand http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... eler-china
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7753
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:51 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

Only when a non-first world disease impacts a first world country will it become news and action will be taken.

We saw it with Ebola.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
trpmb6
Posts: 2829
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:55 pm

I haven't heard anything about this yet, and I've been paying a bit more attention to these types of things this year due to recent personal events. Thanks for sharing.

einsteinboricua wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

Only when a non-first world disease impacts a first world country will it become news and action will be taken.

We saw it with Ebola.


Sadly, this is probably why I haven't heard anything.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:06 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

Only when a non-first world disease impacts a first world country will it become news and action will be taken.

We saw it with Ebola.


It's actually been huge news for anyone following infectious disease news. Also people in Singapore and Hong Kong who are pretty worried about it.

Thing about coronaviruses there's still no vaccine for them. It'd be more like SARS than Ebola, considering its closely related to SARS.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7753
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:12 pm

Jouhou wrote:
It's actually been huge news for anyone following infectious disease news.

Which is likely a fraction of the population.

The media also has a responsibility to not stoke fear. They failed miserably at this with the Ebola outbreak in 2014.

Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 9755
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:22 pm

It is troubling that quite a few are sick, but i don't see this as a large outbreak at this point. It is a scary one, but Human -to Human seems sporadic at best as they track the incidence amongst families.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0114 ... s-warning/

Today, the WHO said there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the new virus in China within families, and it is possible there could be a wider outbreak.

"From the information that we have it is possible that there is limited human-to-human transmission, potentially among families, but it is very clear right now that we have no sustained human-to-human transmission," said Maria Van Kerkhove, acting head of WHO's emerging diseases unit.

The WHO is however preparing for the possibility that there could be a wider outbreak, she told a Geneva news briefing. "It is still early days, we don't have a clear clinical picture."
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:27 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
It's actually been huge news for anyone following infectious disease news.

Which is likely a fraction of the population.

The media also has a responsibility to not stoke fear. They failed miserably at this with the Ebola outbreak in 2014.

Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.


It's also the impact on aviation that will make it bigger news of new people are found infected. Like SARS, the only way of dealing with it is containing it's spread. If more cases are found, expect screenings at all international airports. Ebola is deadly but not highly infectious, and the countries effected don't have a lot of international travelers. There is also now a vaccine.

A SARS like coronavirus causes respiratory infections that have a great deal of potential to spread as readily as other respiratory diseases.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2972
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:18 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.


HK media are definitely covering things, with the number of actual suspected cases in HK being higher than Wuhan itself.

I wouldn't say HK media are not sensationalist, though. The top two Chinese newspapers (on opposite side of political spectrum) aka Apple Daily and Oriental Daily are VERY sensationalist. You can't blame HKers for worrying about another SARS, though, especially after the long cover-up by mainland government back then. Hack, even yesterday, a few HK TV station had their reporters detained and questioned near the "epicenter" hospital in Wuhan (And yes, it include the ultra pro-China TVB).

With Chunyun coming up, if the virus is worse than current reports, things can get really messy quickly.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:30 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.


HK media are definitely covering things, with the number of actual suspected cases in HK being higher than Wuhan itself.

I wouldn't say HK media are not sensationalist, though. The top two Chinese newspapers (on opposite side of political spectrum) aka Apple Daily and Oriental Daily are VERY sensationalist. You can't blame HKers for worrying about another SARS, though, especially after the long cover-up by mainland government back then. Hack, even yesterday, a few HK TV station had their reporters detained and questioned near the "epicenter" hospital in Wuhan (And yes, it include the ultra pro-China TVB).

With Chunyun coming up, if the virus is worse than current reports, things can get really messy quickly.


Even if most of the people in HK being quarantined with the flu, It actually will help decrease the genetic diversity of existing pathogens like the flu to be quarantining the sick and people wearing face masks. The rest of the world will benefit even if they don't realize it by extra precautions being taken in Asia. So, keep doing what you're doing while we wait for more details and thank you HK for taking the lead on it.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:25 am

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... s-outbreak

We're starting to see possible evidence of human to human transmission.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3399
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:10 pm

Some of the worry for a traveler:
If someone on your plane has a communicable disease you could be quarantined, this has happened to a member of our family, and I narrowly escaped it. SARs

If you were in a part of the world where the disease was happening hospitals in the US may quarantine you, hence scheduled surgeries cancelled - this one I escaped by only a few days.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
User avatar
trpmb6
Posts: 2829
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:37 pm

It is now multi-country: https://apnews.com/3845a158612c6cc556c8cb7b91f5d078

Man in Japan was treated for pneumonia after a visit to the Wuhan region. Tested positive for the virus.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:18 am

The second death has occurred because of the virus: https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/16/hea ... -in-japan/

Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html

Hong Kong expands illness reporting:
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/ ... angeable=0

Thailand increasing airport screening:
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... e-new-year
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2972
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:01 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html


Let see if this would increase the amount of case number in Wuhan greatly. B/c it's ridiculous that there are still only <50 cases in Wuhan with the virus seemingly spreading to multiple places around the world.
 
User avatar
trpmb6
Posts: 2829
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:36 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html


Let see if this would increase the amount of case number in Wuhan greatly. B/c it's ridiculous that there are still only <50 cases in Wuhan with the virus seemingly spreading to multiple places around the world.


Its notoriously difficult to pin down these types of things at the early stages. I say this as I'm sitting in a hospital with a 6 month old child who has RSV and pneumonia. Without serious symptoms progression they rarely due the test panel needed to identify the virus. Most adults would likely go without a visit to a doctor, and if they did their symptoms may only mimic a minor cold. It's the elderly and young children that we first see the numbers pop up for. Overtime as an outbreak spreads the screenings will become more common place. But by then it's too late.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:51 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html


Let see if this would increase the amount of case number in Wuhan greatly. B/c it's ridiculous that there are still only <50 cases in Wuhan with the virus seemingly spreading to multiple places around the world.


And of the travelers found outside of china, none went to the outbreak market in question. The one in Japan supposedly had contact with a known patient- meaning China isn't even doing a good job of contact tracing.

Also, second infected person confirmed in Thailand. http://outbreaknewstoday.com/novel-coro ... ase-60660/
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2972
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:31 pm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cdc-t ... latestnews

US (CDC) will begin screening pax from WUH at LAX, SFO, and JFK.

Out of the 3, SFO and JFK has non-stop to WUH, but LAX does have flights to most "secondary" (i.e. anything outside of the "Big 3+1" aka PEK/PKX, PVG, CAN, and SZX) cities in China, and is probably the #1 gateway.
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 755
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:16 am

Looks like SARS again. Goodbye JAL and ANA 767 fleets.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 2972
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:02 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Looks like SARS again. Goodbye JAL and ANA 767 fleets.


As long as PRC doesn't hide how bad the outbreak is, it would not be as bad as SARS. But the first part is always questionable.

Anyway, suspected cases are also reported in Shanghai and Shenzhen:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... d-shenzhen

I seriously can't imagine how bad things can be with Chunyun along with the fact that Wuhan sits right in the middle of Chinese railway network.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:19 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Looks like SARS again. Goodbye JAL and ANA 767 fleets.


As long as PRC doesn't hide how bad the outbreak is, it would not be as bad as SARS. But the first part is always questionable.

Anyway, suspected cases are also reported in Shanghai and Shenzhen:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... d-shenzhen

I seriously can't imagine how bad things can be with Chunyun along with the fact that Wuhan sits right in the middle of Chinese railway network.


http://outbreaknewstoday.com/china-wuha ... ses-49056/

China finally reports 17 new cases in Wuhan. Were they intentionally not screening others in the city outside of people who went to the outbreak market to avoid panic? They'd be better off letting people panic so that they'd practice increased hygiene like wearing masks. It's now suspected it's much more widespread than China has revealed.
 
Cerecl
Posts: 588
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:22 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:15 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Looks like SARS again. Goodbye JAL and ANA 767 fleets.


I think a bit of perspectives are in order here.

Viral respiratory tract epidermic happens EVERY YEAR. Many people die every year as a result. Coronavirus is a well known cause of viral RTI even before SARS came along. SARS was a big deal because it was easily transmitted and its associated mortality rate was much higher than your garden-variety flu. So far, only 2 people have unfortunately passed way from a confirmed case of 65 (possibly much higher), I am not convinced its virulence is worse than what we see every year. Just because the current novel virus is a coronavirus doesn't mean it is going be as bad as SARS.

It is VERY hard to properly diagnose everyone who was infected with the virus. Most people who contract the virus only exhibit mild symptoms and most likely won't choose to seek medical attention. For the same reason, the US screen scheme is probably going to miss 95% of the cases. Wuhan is a big city, and human interactions are almost impossible to completely trace (I think Chinese authority claimed they contact traced 600-odd people). Unless Wuhan closes its borders and checks/isolates everyone who had RTI symptoms, you are not going to stop the spread of the virus.
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:49 am

Cerecl wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Looks like SARS again. Goodbye JAL and ANA 767 fleets.


I think a bit of perspectives are in order here.

Viral respiratory tract epidermic happens EVERY YEAR. Many people die every year as a result. Coronavirus is a well known cause of viral RTI even before SARS came along. SARS was a big deal because it was easily transmitted and its associated mortality rate was much higher than your garden-variety flu. So far, only 2 people have unfortunately passed way from a confirmed case of 65 (possibly much higher), I am not convinced its virulence is worse than what we see every year. Just because the current novel virus is a coronavirus doesn't mean it is going be as bad as SARS.

It is VERY hard to properly diagnose everyone who was infected with the virus. Most people who contract the virus only exhibit mild symptoms and most likely won't choose to seek medical attention. For the same reason, the US screen scheme is probably going to miss 95% of the cases. Wuhan is a big city, and human interactions are almost impossible to completely trace (I think Chinese authority claimed they contact traced 600-odd people). Unless Wuhan closes its borders and checks/isolates everyone who had RTI symptoms, you are not going to stop the spread of the virus.


SARS was stopped. Also, considering the seafood market outbreak caught attention like it did, It's seemingly causing more severe illness than the 4 common and less severe human coronaviruses. This one has genes tracing back to bat coronaviruses like MERS and SARS. These have genes that tend to cause severe illness in humans once they've adapted to infecting our cells. It's important to beat the viruses back before they fully adapt. Each person they infect they become better at infecting people and causing more severe illness.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:35 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... ZI04G?il=0

Looks like outlets non-specific to Asia and infectious disease are now covering the story.
 
Cerecl
Posts: 588
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:22 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:09 am

Jouhou wrote:
SARS was stopped. Also, considering the seafood market outbreak caught attention like it did, It's seemingly causing more severe illness than the 4 common and less severe human coronaviruses. This one has genes tracing back to bat coronaviruses like MERS and SARS. These have genes that tend to cause severe illness in humans once they've adapted to infecting our cells. It's important to beat the viruses back before they fully adapt. Each person they infect they become better at infecting people and causing more severe illness.


SARS stopped when it was summer time-likely one would expect. Not saying all the public health measures were not useful, but all the measure didn't stop virus from reaching 4 continents.

We have influenza A virus epidemic every year. Some years they are better, and other years they are not so good at killing people. The genetic shift and drift that determine virulence appear random rather than directional/adaptational. Again, genetic similarity to MERS/SARS does not mean that they are equally virulent. Mortality associated with SARS was 10% among confirmed cases. Clearly, mortality with this novel virus is much lower. For nearly every patient with viral RTI we looked after in hospital, they can give a history of a (several) friend(s)/family member(s)who also had the symptoms but didn't go see a doctor or didn't need admission. We don't even contact trace these people, so what is different here? There were probably thousands of people who have already come into contact with the novel virus, only a small proportion become sick enough to need hospital admission, and a small proportion of those succumb, just like any other viral RTI. As I said, screening procedures based on temperature and symptoms are going to miss the vast majority of cases. Perhaps more important to eliminate the source, which appears to have already been done.

Not quite sure why NH and JL's 767s were singled out, but I suspect they will probably survive this coronavirus outbreak pretty OK.
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:20 am

Cerecl wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
SARS was stopped. Also, considering the seafood market outbreak caught attention like it did, It's seemingly causing more severe illness than the 4 common and less severe human coronaviruses. This one has genes tracing back to bat coronaviruses like MERS and SARS. These have genes that tend to cause severe illness in humans once they've adapted to infecting our cells. It's important to beat the viruses back before they fully adapt. Each person they infect they become better at infecting people and causing more severe illness.


SARS stopped when it was summer time-likely one would expect. Not saying all the public health measures were not useful, but all the measure didn't stop virus from reaching 4 continents.

We have influenza A virus epidemic every year. Some years they are better, and other years they are not so good at killing people. The genetic shift and drift that determine virulence appear random rather than directional/adaptational. Again, genetic similarity to MERS/SARS does not mean that they are equally virulent. Mortality associated with SARS was 10% among confirmed cases. Clearly, mortality with this novel virus is much lower. For nearly every patient with viral RTI we looked after in hospital, they can give a history of a (several) friend(s)/family member(s)who also had the symptoms but didn't go see a doctor or didn't need admission. We don't even contact trace these people, so what is different here? There were probably thousands of people who have already come into contact with the novel virus, only a small proportion become sick enough to need hospital admission, and a small proportion of those succumb, just like any other viral RTI. As I said, screening procedures based on temperature and symptoms are going to miss the vast majority of cases. Perhaps more important to eliminate the source, which appears to have already been done.

Not quite sure why NH and JL's 767s were singled out, but I suspect they will probably survive this coronavirus outbreak pretty OK.


So you think we should just do nothing and let it adapt to humans until it does prove as serious? That's idiotic.

It's not the same lineage as the 4 common types. You can look up a chart of genetic relationships. The human coronaviruses should not be compared to this, although both OC43 and HKU1 are also betacoronaviruses, they are not very similar.
 
Cerecl
Posts: 588
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:22 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:04 pm

Jouhou wrote:
So you think we should just do nothing and let it adapt to humans until it does prove as serious? That's idiotic.
It's not the same lineage as the 4 common types. You can look up a chart of genetic relationships. The human coronaviruses should not be compared to this, although both OC43 and HKU1 are also betacoronaviruses, they are not very similar.


What do you mean by adapt to humans? The virus has already acquired the ability to infect humans. If Imperial College's estimation is true, it has already infected >1000 humans. No one knows who these 1000 people are. What is your proposed action plan? Stop people moving in and out of Wuhan? Isolate anyone who has runny nose and sore throat? Why do you think what people do out of common sense anyway to avoid being infected by any other URTI virus is not sufficient in this case? As I said before, of course viruses will continue to mutate, but this is random rather than adaptational, otherwise every year influenza virus would be worse than the previous year's strain, which is not the case.

You keep on talking about genetics-this is all fine and good and nobody argues this virus is not novel. There is however one inescapable fact-Only 2 people have passed away from infections caused by this virus. Again, to provide a bit of perspectives-I lost 2 patients in one ward during one winter to viral RTI. This was in a 400-bed hospital in a regional centre with a catchment size of no more than 300K. Wuhan has at about 40 times that population. Clearly, most people who contract the virus don't become very sick, and most who become sick can eventually clear this virus. Whether it is 85%, 90% or 95% similar to SARS genetically therefore means little clinically. Remember genetically we are >96% identical to the Chimpanzees and 90% to common cats.

Someone mentioned Chunyun up this thread. You'd be extremely naive to think only this year do people contract viral RTIs on their journey.
Fokker-100 SAAB 340 Q400 E190 717 737 738 763ER 787-8 772 77E 773 77W 747-400 747-400ER A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A346 A359 A380
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:20 pm

Cerecl wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
So you think we should just do nothing and let it adapt to humans until it does prove as serious? That's idiotic.
It's not the same lineage as the 4 common types. You can look up a chart of genetic relationships. The human coronaviruses should not be compared to this, although both OC43 and HKU1 are also betacoronaviruses, they are not very similar.


What do you mean by adapt to humans? The virus has already acquired the ability to infect humans. If Imperial College's estimation is true, it has already infected >1000 humans. No one knows who these 1000 people are. What is your proposed action plan? Stop people moving in and out of Wuhan? Isolate anyone who has runny nose and sore throat? Why do you think what people do out of common sense anyway to avoid being infected by any other URTI virus is not sufficient in this case? As I said before, of course viruses will continue to mutate, but this is random rather than adaptational, otherwise every year influenza virus would be worse than the previous year's strain, which is not the case.

You keep on talking about genetics-this is all fine and good and nobody argues this virus is not novel. There is however one inescapable fact-Only 2 people have passed away from infections caused by this virus. Again, to provide a bit of perspectives-I lost 2 patients in one ward during one winter to viral RTI. This was in a 400-bed hospital in a regional centre with a catchment size of no more than 300K. Wuhan has at about 40 times that population. Clearly, most people who contract the virus don't become very sick, and most who become sick can eventually clear this virus. Whether it is 85%, 90% or 95% similar to SARS genetically therefore means little clinically. Remember genetically we are >96% identical to the Chimpanzees and 90% to common cats.

Someone mentioned Chunyun up this thread. You'd be extremely naive to think only this year do people contract viral RTIs on their journey.


It's still a zoonotic disease. There's usually a period where they can be isolated and removed from the population after they first make the species jump because they are still not very contagious until they adapt to the new hosts tissues and can replicate rapidly in them.

Also why are you pushing the line of BS the Chinese government is pushing (genetics don't matter)? They're only saying that because of the comparisons to SARS and how badly they messed up. It's a virus, all it is is a tiny self replicating machine, it's "code" is the only thing that matters in predicting how it is going to behave.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2148
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:32 pm

There's no English language articles yet but there are reports that there's 136 new cases, a new death, a confirmed case in Shenzhen, 2 cases at Beijing Daxing. I will post the articles when they come out in English.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Aesma, Jouhou, scbriml and 103 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos