PacoMartin wrote:So an air carrier that serves much over ~60 city markets will require some small jets. Two decades from now Southwest will still need 143 seat B737-700, and Delta, United, and American cannot have a fleet where the smallest aircraft is B737-800 or MAX-8 or A320 unless they change their business plan and reduce the number of markets by a significant amount.
PacoMartin wrote:For Southwest I think the smallest airport that they serve is Harlingen Valley International in Texas, which is a holdover to the 1970s. They wouldn't consider an airport like that in the last 15 years since they become the #1 domestic carrier (by total number of passengers).
MIflyer12 wrote:You can't have it both ways, talking about domestic airports served by AA/DL/UA, and then pretending those regional networks don't exist by declaring WN the largest domestic carrier. Include the regionals and it isn't. Measure it by RPMs instead of passengers and it isn't.
MIflyer12 wrote:There is no worthwhile argument independent of the average fares people in small markets are willing to pay, and the development and operating costs of relevant airc I don't think they can serve all their markets with a B747raft. None.
NZ321 wrote:Lots of small communities are indeed affected.I particularly think about those in the Rockies and more sparsely populated areas in the northwest and south.
PacoMartin wrote:You would get more flights if you were a stand alone metro area in the middle of nowhere but you are less that 90 miles from two huge hubs--EWR and PHI.NZ321 wrote:Lots of small communities are indeed affected.I particularly think about those in the Rockies and more sparsely populated areas in the northwest and south.
You don't even have to look at areas that sparsely populated. There are 495 urban areas in the US as of the 2010 census. An "urban area" is a by definition a minimum of 50,000. Maybe 149 of those areas are over 250,000.
My urban area is ranked #61 and has a population of 664,651 so it is small, but not tiny. We only have about three round trips per day with a jet above regional airline size (76 seats). One daily Delta B717(C12W15Y83 or 110 seats) to Atlanta, and two Allegiant jets, A319 (Y156) or an A320(Y177).
johns624 wrote:You would get more flights if you were a stand alone metro area in the middle of nowhere but you are less that 90 miles from two huge hubs--EWR and PHI.
PacoMartin wrote:One point is that the smaller jets are still instrumental in serving much of the networks. The US fleet of 1037 smaller jets is aging rapidly, and very few airlines are buying new jets of this size.
I know that people like to point out that jets can be active for a long time, and that the airlines are purchasing some used jets that are not as old to help the small jet fleet last long. But even orders put in today take years to start making deliveries, and normally an airline does not deliver more than a dozen of a particular model per year. You are talking about over 1000 jets in this list.
Yrs Airbus A319
18.2 United 82
18.0 Delta 57
15.9 American 133
15.1 Frontier 6
14.7 Allegiant Air 38
13.4 Spirit 31
12.4 Alaska 10
16.3 Total 357
Yrs Boeing 737-700
20.8 United 42
19.7 Alaska 14
15.6 Southwest 503
11.1 Delta 10
16.0 Total 569
Yrs Boeing 717-200
18.1 Hawaiian 20
18.4 Delta 91
18.3 Total 111
Obviously some North American airlines are ordering smaller jets. Looking at Airbus orders
45 A220-100s, ordered by Delta
There have been four orders for the A220-300s: 50 Delta |70 Jetblue |60 Moxy |45 Air Canada
47 A319neos, ordered by Spirit
JonesNL wrote:Can I make the simple deduction that 1037 small narrowbodies need replacement in the next decade or two? In an ideal 50-50 split for Airbus and Boeing this would entail that both Boeing and Airbus will receive several 100s of orders in the small narrowbodies segment in the US.
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