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KFTG
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33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:55 am

As of the time of this posting, the 33 US states have Rt values lower than 1.0, which according to the CDC qualifies as "containing" the virus.
NY has the lowest Rt value of 0.78; AZ has the highest of 1.21. This is great news and is, imo, the only metric we should be using to determine the effectiveness of our efforts thus far.
More here: https://rt.live/
 
olle
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:45 am

Is this because of summer or closing down the states? In october we will know for sure..
 
KFTG
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:49 am

Well, we shall see. However in the case of the following states, no lockdowns were ever enacted. WY, NE, SD, IA (<1.0 Rt., good = contained); ND, OK, UT, AR (>1.0 Rt, bad = virus spreading).
If you compare the 6 weeks ago numbers to today the trend is obvious.
 
tommy1808
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:10 am

KFTG wrote:
As of the time of this posting, the 33 US states have Rt values lower than 1.0, which according to the CDC qualifies as "containing" the virus.


Have possibly contained the virus..only 9 states are at or below 1 with 90% confidence.

https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:42 pm

The two links above present models of what is happening in the US state by state. I checked the Washington State one as that is the only one I closely follow. Neither link is particularly descriptive of what is happening here. As some of you know we are heavily involved in international trade and agriculture, and have a lot of travel throughout the world. The epidemic got an early start here, and hit hard, it had spread throughout the state, first the Seattle area especially in nursing homes, and then in the food processing plants in Eastern Washington. We had the most cases and the most deaths early on. We now are experiencing few cases and deaths than most states. Yet our low numbers are not getting lower. The agricultural industry lacks the ability (and sometimes the willingness) to prevent the spread of the disease. Contrary to the first model linked we are barely using any of our hospital facilities - local hospital often have no cases at all in ICU.

My own county, which is heavily into the defense industry, is doing well, just under 1 case per day with a population of 275K, and we reached those levels before mid April. But that <1 cases per day is not going down.
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seb146
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:25 pm

I take all these reports with a grain of salt. Each state has different reporting and testing. South Dakota had a huge outbreak because of their meat processing plants but that does not seem to be included. Also, no one really lives in Wyoming.

I do know that here in Oregon, since Gov. Brown bowed to pressure to "open" the reported cases have gone up. I have also heard that hospital bed capacity due to covid in Arizona is at 85% and rising.

I don't think there is one source to trust on this.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
jetwet1
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:29 pm

seb146 wrote:
I take all these reports with a grain of salt. Each state has different reporting and testing. South Dakota had a huge outbreak because of their meat processing plants but that does not seem to be included. Also, no one really lives in Wyoming.

I do know that here in Oregon, since Gov. Brown bowed to pressure to "open" the reported cases have gone up. I have also heard that hospital bed capacity due to covid in Arizona is at 85% and rising.

I don't think there is one source to trust on this.


And that will be the pattern until there is either a vaccine or it has worked it's way through the population.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:10 am

There's also the question as to where in the state are the outbreaks happening.

In WA, cases are going up, but King, Pierce, and Snohomish (the Seattle metro counties) are relatively stable compared to Yakima and Benton (both rural) which have suddenly been getting more and more cases. I'd consider it a greater concern if a county containing a metro area is the center of the outbreak instead of rural counties; the latter are isolated and the outbreak can be better contained.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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stl07
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:32 am

jetwet1 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
I take all these reports with a grain of salt. Each state has different reporting and testing. South Dakota had a huge outbreak because of their meat processing plants but that does not seem to be included. Also, no one really lives in Wyoming.

I do know that here in Oregon, since Gov. Brown bowed to pressure to "open" the reported cases have gone up. I have also heard that hospital bed capacity due to covid in Arizona is at 85% and rising.

I don't think there is one source to trust on this.


And that will be the pattern until there is either a vaccine or it has worked it's way through the population.

Or we take it seriously like Hawaii, Australia, and New Zealand did (maybe the pacific ocean makes you smarter) who have more or less eradicated it
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
KFTG
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:40 am

stl07 wrote:
Or we take it seriously like Hawaii, Australia, and New Zealand did (maybe the pacific ocean makes you smarter) who have more or less eradicated it

Missing the point.
Now: "Great news! We eradicated the virus!"
A month from now: "Unfortunately because we re-opened our borders to tourism, cases are on the rise again."
You scored political points.
They get a participation trophy.
Nothing more.

Smart is *not* shutting down an entire global economy because you might get a fever with a 99.6% survival rate.
 
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stl07
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:00 am

KFTG wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Or we take it seriously like Hawaii, Australia, and New Zealand did (maybe the pacific ocean makes you smarter) who have more or less eradicated it

Missing the point.
Now: "Great news! We eradicated the virus!"
A month from now: "Unfortunately because we re-opened our borders to tourism, cases are on the rise again."
You scored political points.
They get a participation trophy.
Nothing more.

Smart is *not* shutting down an entire global economy because you might get a fever with a 99.6% survival rate.

Buzz. Wrong. Australia and New Zealand are actually making a tourist bubble and demand is there because there is no virus. You can reopen all day long, but you can't restore consumer confidence with a deadly virus out there. Also, you can survive cancer too, that doesn't mean I want cancer. Same thing with the virus that permanently screws up your lungs and makes you breathe like an old fart that smoked 3 packs a day all his life
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
KFTG
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:02 am

Your argument was more persuasive in March.
 
Kent350787
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:14 am

KFTG wrote:
Your argument was more persuasive in March.


I must say, I'm pretty glad there have only been 102 deaths out of our 25m population. With 16 people being treated in hospital nationally, life, apart from international travel, is opening up pretty quickly.

Was the shutdown worht it? If you primarily value human life, then the answer is yes. And if we we can now move the economy (apart from international tourism) back to normal in the next few weeks with minimal health risk, then it may overall be money well spent and restrictions well held. I am getting pretty sickl of our 4sqm per person rule, but that will likely be gone by Aug/Sept.

The arguments in Australia are over why a couple of states are keeping their borders closed when the risk is so low.
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scbriml
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:40 am

KFTG wrote:
Smart is *not* shutting down an entire global economy because you might get a fever with a 99.6% survival rate.


It's not just 'flu.

Signed,
120,000 dead Americans (and still growing).
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
KFTG
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:56 am

How clever of you!
 
tommy1808
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:04 am

scbriml wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Smart is *not* shutting down an entire global economy because you might get a fever with a 99.6% survival rate.


It's not just 'flu.

Signed,
120,000 dead Americans (and still growing).


also: 99.6% survival rate is bollox, somewhere between 98 and 99% is more like it.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
KFTG
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:35 am

tommy1808 wrote:
also: 99.6% survival rate is bollox, somewhere between 98 and 99% is more like it.

Source?
 
KFTG
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:06 am

Anyone else follow Neeleman (founder of B6)?
He is a welcomed voice of reason in a sea of insanity.
https://twitter.com/DavidNeeleman
 
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bgm
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:43 am

KFTG wrote:
How clever of you!


Just remember that you’re only as strong as your weakest link. Unless borders between states are closed or restricted, each state’s is vulnerable.

The US has basically given up on trying to contain it. The dollar ultimately trumps human life.
 
KFTG
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:02 am

bgm wrote:
The US has basically given up on trying to contain it. The dollar ultimately trumps human life.

Have you considered that the juice is not worth the squeeze?
And yes, money matters. It matters a LOT. We do not operate on a barter system.
In particular the American dollar, the foundation of the entire effing global financial system.
 
KFTG
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:06 am

Update 6/14 35 US states have effectively contained COVID-19. https://rt.live/
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:33 am

Anybody(country/state/county/city) in their right mind wouldn't claim they contained COVID-19.

The running average ranges are increasing 3 days to 7 days now 14 days. I guess we will see monthly and quarterly averages very soon, just to smooth things out.

Goal is not to save individuals, it is to save the hospital system in your city mostly.

So, I am just watching active cases and empty beds in a given state to measure their performance. Who cares if one state has 250,000 total cases and another has just 10,000 two months back. How many are active now, how is the hospitalization rate, how many beds are still available. Rest is just data analytics, which is a good business, don't get me wrong.
All posts are just opinions.
 
ltbewr
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:40 am

I live in NJ, which has turned around its R number from over 5.0 to 0.65. They are 'reopening' but continuing with requirements of social distancing, use of face/nose masks inside businesses, if outdoors in crowds, allowing socially distanced outdoor tables at restaurants, allowing haircuts and beauty salons to reopen, stores still supposed to limit numbers of shoppers at one time. We have yet to see number possibly going up from the recent anti-racism protests, but the rate in decrease in new infections from testing, hospitalizations and deaths is flattening.
On thing I fear is some traveling for personal, tourism, family, income reasons from high infection states and regions to those with lower rates and re-ingiting a rise in infection levels and leading to reinstating shutdowns and restrictions with subsequent health and economic devastation.
 
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casinterest
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:46 pm

The entire premise of this thread is a wrong. Covid-19 has not been contained. It was minimized in Spread by Social Distancing. Now as Social Distancing is lifted we are going to see a great rise in cases, as Florida, Arizona, Texas, California, Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee are showing.

The only reason the US numbers look good is because the states in the North that led the initial phase (washington, NY, Michigan, and NJ have flattened their curve hard.

Texas, NC, California, and Florida are all setting their highest daily newly infected rates currenltly.

The issue will be exacerbated as we get more openings occurring state by state.

Donald Trump is ready to start his Covid-19 Spread rallies this week, and we will see more get togethers as people start thinking it is safe due to bad messaging.

The hospitals are not prepared still, and we will have more hospitalization coming. The pressure will be on many areas to keep the economy going as evidenced by this misinformed thread,so the Governor's may wait too long to shut down and roll back, or we may not move to increased openings. All of which is bad for the economy.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
tommy1808
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:36 pm

KFTG wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
also: 99.6% survival rate is bollox, somewhere between 98 and 99% is more like it.

Source?


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

1.4%

And that is as long you have a ventilator for pretty much anyone that needs one, which you won't have if Corona just roams free.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Alfons
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:38 pm

KFTG wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
also: 99.6% survival rate is bollox, somewhere between 98 and 99% is more like it.

Source?


5% death rate in one of the best rated country in the world regarding hospital and medical standards, Switzerland. Those numbers are public.
I like all those comments alike "hey we only had 900 infected and 56 youknowwhat, time to open again", every time completely blinding out the reason why those numbers are so low.

See the daily cases growth of Sweden, after 2 months without lockdown. Sweden will be the first country in the world achieving its immunity of 60% in a natural way, but with what a loss of human life... .
 
tommy1808
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:53 pm

Alfons wrote:
KFTG wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
also: 99.6% survival rate is bollox, somewhere between 98 and 99% is more like it.

Source?


5% death rate in one of the best rated country in the world regarding hospital and medical standards, Switzerland. Those numbers are public.
I like all those comments alike "hey we only had 900 infected and 56 youknowwhat, time to open again", every time completely blinding out the reason why those numbers are so low.

See the daily cases growth of Sweden, after 2 months without lockdown. Sweden will be the first country in the world achieving its immunity of 60% in a natural way, but with what a loss of human life... .


5+% numbers are crude mortality rate, the interesting one is case mortality rate, which will be quite a bit lower.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Alfons
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:05 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Alfons wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Source?


5% death rate in one of the best rated country in the world regarding hospital and medical standards, Switzerland. Those numbers are public.
I like all those comments alike "hey we only had 900 infected and 56 youknowwhat, time to open again", every time completely blinding out the reason why those numbers are so low.

See the daily cases growth of Sweden, after 2 months without lockdown. Sweden will be the first country in the world achieving its immunity of 60% in a natural way, but with what a loss of human life... .


5+% numbers are crude mortality rate, the interesting one is case mortality rate, which will be quite a bit lower.

Best regards
Thomas


Just using the published data (31'000 cases and 1677 deceases). The real data we will get through various studies years after the pandemic is over. But to be honest, I see no difference in criticality between 5% and 1.4%. Both are huge numbers and very scary.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:07 pm

Death rate is not a simple statistic. Both the numerator and the denominator are pretty fluid numbers. It all depends upon what is measured, what sort of information and for what purpose someone is looking for. The well known IHME was a quick and dirty devised largely for hospitals to know what they needed to be ready for over the next several days. My county has had 2 deaths and a known infection rate with an e-4 number. Neither numbers are particularly useful for planners, so other numbers and trends are used.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
tommy1808
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:19 pm

Alfons wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Alfons wrote:

5% death rate in one of the best rated country in the world regarding hospital and medical standards, Switzerland. Those numbers are public.
I like all those comments alike "hey we only had 900 infected and 56 youknowwhat, time to open again", every time completely blinding out the reason why those numbers are so low.

See the daily cases growth of Sweden, after 2 months without lockdown. Sweden will be the first country in the world achieving its immunity of 60% in a natural way, but with what a loss of human life... .


5+% numbers are crude mortality rate, the interesting one is case mortality rate, which will be quite a bit lower.

Best regards
Thomas


Just using the published data (31'000 cases and 1677 deceases). The real data we will get through various studies years after the pandemic is over. But to be honest, I see no difference in criticality between 5% and 1.4%. Both are huge numbers and very scary.


Oh, i agree... even below 1% is scary enough. That would still be world war level losses globally.
And I guess if you let it rip bad enough you run out of ventilators and it gets nasty quick.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
airhansa
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 8:07 am

jetwet1 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
I take all these reports with a grain of salt. Each state has different reporting and testing. South Dakota had a huge outbreak because of their meat processing plants but that does not seem to be included. Also, no one really lives in Wyoming.

I do know that here in Oregon, since Gov. Brown bowed to pressure to "open" the reported cases have gone up. I have also heard that hospital bed capacity due to covid in Arizona is at 85% and rising.

I don't think there is one source to trust on this.


And that will be the pattern until there is either a vaccine or it has worked it's way through the population.


Unless of course a more virulent form of the virus emerges like the seasonal flu.
 
N757ST
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:14 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
also: 99.6% survival rate is bollox, somewhere between 98 and 99% is more like it.

Source?


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

1.4%

And that is as long you have a ventilator for pretty much anyone that needs one, which you won't have if Corona just roams free.

Best regards
Thomas


Ventilators are a last ditch treatment, and are generally not the limiting factor of treating patients. It’s trained ICU staff that can be the limiting factor, and can cause a higher mortality rate. You can create ICU space but you can’t suddenly create a ICU trained attending.


Ventilators are being used again last ditch. High flow oxygen, proning, steroids, etc are all used well before then. In NYC which is largely on the down slope has more people on ventilators for standard uses then for COVID at this point.
 
tommy1808
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:33 pm

N757ST wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Source?


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

1.4%

And that is as long you have a ventilator for pretty much anyone that needs one, which you won't have if Corona just roams free.

Best regards
Thomas


Ventilators are a last ditch treatment, and are generally not the limiting factor of treating patients. It’s trained ICU staff that can be the limiting factor, and can cause a higher mortality rate. You can create ICU space but you can’t suddenly create a ICU trained attending.


Ventilators are being used again last ditch. High flow oxygen, proning, steroids, etc are all used well before then. In NYC which is largely on the down slope has more people on ventilators for standard uses then for COVID at this point.


You are of course correct and can replace Ventilators with medical resources.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
jetwet1
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:17 pm

I was at the grocery store yesterday, waiting in line (6ft apart) for some deli meats, an old guy behind me starts a conversation with a younger guy.

His whole argument was, "this is all BS, they are just making this up to scare us all".....The old guy asked me what I thought, my answer was simple..."Take off your mask".....

casinterest wrote:
The entire premise of this thread is a wrong. Covid-19 has not been contained. It was minimized in Spread by Social Distancing. Now as Social Distancing is lifted we are going to see a great rise in cases, as Florida, Arizona, Texas, California, Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee are showing.


This pretty much sums it up, but, at this point I have given up, if people are so stupid as to ignore the obvious or believe idiot on tv/an internet forum/Facebook, I say go for it, get out there, have fun, screw all the social distancing rules, forget the masks, you only live once......
 
Dieuwer
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Re: 33 US States Have Contained COVID-19

Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:31 pm

Better not start an argument about this. You might get brutally attacked these days...

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