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strfyr51
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:44 pm

dstblj52 wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
Live by the sword, die by the sword. With few exceptions, regionals are not in full control on their destinies and depend on the "mother" airline to do it for them. This is the end result, time and time again

Yep its made worse in these cases because united owns all the 145's in question so the airlines own nothing

well? If United can't find anybody to fly their airplanes at the Price they want to PAY? Then they'll have to fly them themselves.. Then they can SEE what it takes to fly them and not just speculate on the subject. If nobody was going for the deal? Then there wouldn't BE any deal would there?
I'm not sorry this is happening as maybe United will run out of "Suckers" to mess Over every other year.
Somebody has Got to fly the airplanes or turn them into Beer Cans, and this is just another "Whipsaw" move.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:07 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
dstblj52 wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
Live by the sword, die by the sword. With few exceptions, regionals are not in full control on their destinies and depend on the "mother" airline to do it for them. This is the end result, time and time again

Yep its made worse in these cases because united owns all the 145's in question so the airlines own nothing

well? If United can't find anybody to fly their airplanes at the Price they want to PAY? Then they'll have to fly them themselves.. Then they can SEE what it takes to fly them and not just speculate on the subject. If nobody was going for the deal? Then there wouldn't BE any deal would there?
I'm not sorry this is happening as maybe United will run out of "Suckers" to mess Over every other year.
Somebody has Got to fly the airplanes or turn them into Beer Cans, and this is just another "Whipsaw" move.


Oh, but they do know what it takes. They crunch numbers all the livelong day.
COVID-19 has killed a lot of jobs, and pilot shortage is postponed...
They can resume the musical chair/whipsaw, and they do.

Or you believe they'll have difficulty opening/closing these shell "regional airlines" and staffing them/destaffing them at will?
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stbycleared
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:21 pm

eugdjinn wrote:
As to the fleet, they are all the same aircraft, every single one of them was once at ExpressJet, and was shifted by UA to C5 or Trans States. Really. So while the 25 still operating at EV (ExpressJet) are many of them the slightly older, 145LRs not 145XRs, they are not dead. (And let's just put the new to airliners myth that any aircraft at or near 20 years old needs to be parked immediately to rest! The 145 is built like the Emb-120 was - it's a tank. Properly cared for, she's good for plenty more years. I don't love them, and I don't love saying that, but it is true. Just like the 30 year old 767, make the inside look new, give them new paint, and nobody cares how old they actually are.) At the moment, only ExpressJet has been capable of doing the heavy checks, so UA had them do so, then hand freshly checked XRs to C5.

And yes, myth number two, even the pilots inside ExpressJet don't seem to realize that they are indeed only flying 20-25 aircraft, not 90. They are the smaller of the two entities right now. In September UA has them down to 20 planes. They are being wound down. Still, that same EV pilot group is promising not to take any concessions and to die on their swords. Hoorah, gentlemen... way to kill your airline! The flight attendants have been told by the head of their union, the redoubtable IAM, one Sara Gonzales that she will accept any concessions on their behalf to keep the airline alive. (Fun fact, Sara Gonzales is also the person who represents the flight attendants at Commutair!)

Finally, UAL sent either four or five additional VPs to ExpressJet with very generous salaries in the last year and a half, which oddly did not result in the departure of any existing VPs. This is par for the course at ExpressJet, very few people have ever left the HQ, in fact, the legacy ExpressJet HQ in Houston is also fully staffed with duplicate functions now dragging on the payroll. Not a single person has taken a paycut, VP or otherwise and no one has been reduced in force since the departure of the ASA 200s, the 900s, or the 700s that flew as Delta Connection, or American Eagle, excepting the large number of furloughed Flight Attendants. Which means there are now something on the order of 30-40 people in HQ per aircraft. Those are not people who make $9/hr. They are also long time folk whose salaries have gone up year after year regardless of actual performance for 20+ years.

Which is why when ExpressJet sent WARN notices everyone in the company got one. (And timed so that the 60 days will end on ... Sept. 11!)

You might note that there hasn't been so much as a peep about even a single WARN notice at Commutair.

And the EV maintenance base that did those heavy checks on the E145LR and E145XR fleet - CLE, has been told that they are definitely closing. (I think it's a safe bet that C5 will have a hiring event for mechanics in CLE real soon, and likely open an MX base there, in a hangar rented by UA perhaps?)

I don't see any conclusion possible except one: dead airline flying it's last.

ExpressJet is reportedly behind on its bills, (with the exception of payroll).

I see SkyWest 200s in UAX paint arriving in Houston suddenly this September.

And no, no merger. ExpressJet's pilot group has been part of killing ExpressJet multiple times, nobody in their right mind wants that group as anything other than zero seniority new hires firmly told to be quiet.



Former ExpressJet headquarters employee here. A few responses to your points:

1) E145 commonality: This may have changed, but C5 is not certified to fly the non-XR 145s. Cannot remember the specific reason, but this is why C5 only took XRs. At one point, I heard this difference came as a surprise oops moment to UA when the C5 program was starting up.

2) EV Fleet size: You're right - the fleet was shrinking and shrinking. I think we had around 20 spares on a 110 aircraft fleet at one point. Even with the "massive growth" charade from new ownership, we couldn't staff those and the new 175s. UA was not happy paying for parked planes.

3) Headquarters Staffing: ExpressJet was and still is thin on VPs. The VPs of Flight Ops, Maintenance, HR and Finance, as well as the Tech leader, left within the first year of the sale. New ownership brought in 1:1 replacements (Tech was upgraded to VP). There were a couple new SVPs brought in to fulfill duties SkyWest previously handled. For the most part, there were not duplicate functions in Atlanta and Houston. I agree that headquarters headcount was still high in some areas, given the smaller size of the company, but we most definitely laid off people following the Delta and American terminations. We were also supposed to be in growth mode after the sale, which explains some of the headquarters staffing. About the pay - no one at ExpressJet headquarters is making what they should be for the amount of work required, even VPs. The pay is embarrassingly low.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5027
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:09 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
dstblj52 wrote:
Yep its made worse in these cases because united owns all the 145's in question so the airlines own nothing

well? If United can't find anybody to fly their airplanes at the Price they want to PAY? Then they'll have to fly them themselves.. Then they can SEE what it takes to fly them and not just speculate on the subject. If nobody was going for the deal? Then there wouldn't BE any deal would there?
I'm not sorry this is happening as maybe United will run out of "Suckers" to mess Over every other year.
Somebody has Got to fly the airplanes or turn them into Beer Cans, and this is just another "Whipsaw" move.


Oh, but they do know what it takes. They crunch numbers all the livelong day.
COVID-19 has killed a lot of jobs, and pilot shortage is postponed...
They can resume the musical chair/whipsaw, and they do.

Or you believe they'll have difficulty opening/closing these shell "regional airlines" and staffing them/destaffing them at will?

believe you can only jack people around so much before the rubber band breaks. there is already one regional airline that recently claimed they had run the Undercut game so far and there was no more room to trim without compromising safety. And? they Pulled the PLUG on the entire operation. So it could be? United is trying to cull the Herd even more until they can find an airline that can do everything? For Nothing!
 
mcdu
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:09 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
well? If United can't find anybody to fly their airplanes at the Price they want to PAY? Then they'll have to fly them themselves.. Then they can SEE what it takes to fly them and not just speculate on the subject. If nobody was going for the deal? Then there wouldn't BE any deal would there?
I'm not sorry this is happening as maybe United will run out of "Suckers" to mess Over every other year.
Somebody has Got to fly the airplanes or turn them into Beer Cans, and this is just another "Whipsaw" move.


Oh, but they do know what it takes. They crunch numbers all the livelong day.
COVID-19 has killed a lot of jobs, and pilot shortage is postponed...
They can resume the musical chair/whipsaw, and they do.

Or you believe they'll have difficulty opening/closing these shell "regional airlines" and staffing them/destaffing them at will?

believe you can only jack people around so much before the rubber band breaks. there is already one regional airline that recently claimed they had run the Undercut game so far and there was no more room to trim without compromising safety. And? they Pulled the PLUG on the entire operation. So it could be? United is trying to cull the Herd even more until they can find an airline that can do everything? For Nothing!


It’s not being “jacked around”. It is life as the lowest bidder in the game. This didn’t happen overnight. The regional landscape is littered with airlines that were too big to fail. Comair, independence are the two that stand out but there are hundreds that have disappeared over the years. It’s the cycle of life in the regional world.

I hate to see this happen but the host airline isn’t a charity. They themselves are letting thousands of their own employees go to to reduce costs. What do you propose as a solution to this issue?
 
N649DL
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:29 am

Doesn't UAL basically already do that via ExpressJet?

What's the point? So they shed out "Trans States" or some regional flying or something like that?
 
Ishrion
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:16 pm

 
strfyr51
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:33 am

mcdu wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:

Oh, but they do know what it takes. They crunch numbers all the livelong day.
COVID-19 has killed a lot of jobs, and pilot shortage is postponed...
They can resume the musical chair/whipsaw, and they do.

Or you believe they'll have difficulty opening/closing these shell "regional airlines" and staffing them/destaffing them at will?

believe you can only jack people around so much before the rubber band breaks. there is already one regional airline that recently claimed they had run the Undercut game so far and there was no more room to trim without compromising safety. And? they Pulled the PLUG on the entire operation. So it could be? United is trying to cull the Herd even more until they can find an airline that can do everything? For Nothing!


It’s not being “jacked around”. It is life as the lowest bidder in the game. This didn’t happen overnight. The regional landscape is littered with airlines that were too big to fail. Comair, independence are the two that stand out but there are hundreds that have disappeared over the years. It’s the cycle of life in the regional world.

I hate to see this happen but the host airline isn’t a charity. They themselves are letting thousands of their own employees go to to reduce costs. What do you propose as a solution to this issue?

Independence Air did that to themselves!! Atlantic Coast was the original name and they were the United Darling out of IAD. United hit hard times and did a LOT of cutting in our OWN house so they HAD to do some external cutting or WE might have rebelled as well.
They went to the UAX carriers and laid out their plan and Atlantic Coast rebelled. Not only that? They sought to walk off with flights and slots that belonged to United.
And United cut them off at the knees! After their "independece" streak had worn thin? They wanted to come BACK to the fold before going under. Could be?
They should have referenced what United did to Air Wisconsin, Because what they did to them? was nearly criminal! Air Wiskey told United they intended to go and fly for American off of the United gates at ORD.. when that terminal was nearly NEW. United Bought the Air Wisconsin stock cut them up like a "Christmas Turkey", sold off most of their Fleet and cast them adrift !! if you go to the E concourse at ORD? the Last gates at the end of the concourse were built for and were exclusively used by Air Wisconsin. Now? they're Mainline Gates and ZW is not even ON the concourse. United might be a Hard Taskmaster but there is no doubt about it!
They are Ruthless! And? They're making Damn sure No UAX carrier forgets it. I have no love for the Express concept for sure.
The express concept is like a junkie on Heroin .One taste is too many and is NEVER enough!! I'd root for anybody who builds an airline and doesn't get on the TIT of any major. I watched Mesa under Larry Risley who told us in a conference that he intended to fly 737's in United Colors and the pilots weren't going to do anything about it. I think he lasted a week after the Pilots threatened to Strike and the VP of ops who even let him SPEAK to the Pilots? Got Fired the same week!
if for NO other reason? the Pilots at United are worse than the TALIBAN or BLM in some respects..
They have never Had much of a sense of Humor anyway and right now? I'll bet? They're Grim!! And that's putting it Mildly.
 
jonair8
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:35 am

Definitely a sad day in aviation today. Unfortunately I think this is only the beginning of large cuts to come elsewhere in the industry. Time will tell whether other regionals will suffer the same fate. My thoughts are with everyone at EV.

Unfortunately, I was expecting UA to do business with C5 instead of EV. It is interesting to see how they at first were going to invest largely in the E45 fleet, transfer the former AX aircraft to EV, and open a DEN base. At one point, it was looking that OO would lose a good chunk of CR2 flying there in favor of the EV E45. Now, it will be interesting to see how the remaining E45 flying will be deployed in the system with only C5 at the wheel. Wonder how IAH will turn out. YX already announced the closure of IAH as a base for them through internal memos found on other media sites, so I feel more is on the way at United Express.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:56 am

From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
enplaned
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:04 am

This was likely foreordained. C5 is smaller and has been flying the 145 for less time. EV is larger and has been around for a long time, has a lot of higher seniority pilots. Probably also its contract, being older, has more Ts & Cs that tend to increase costs a bit.

C5 pilot rates are a bit smaller than EV, but the point is that if you kill EV, all the high seniority pilots go away. If you add some of the EV aircraft to C5, C5 hires pilots off the street at zero seniority. So, avg seniority across the two carriers goes down.

On the other hand, if you kill off C5 (and especially if you then also shrink EV), avg seniority across the two carriers goes up.

Regional flying like this is essentially about only one thing - low labor costs. Killing EV was always the most likely outcome, by far.

This one is a particularly stark example. That the economics are clear doesn't make the outcome any less tough for ExpressJet.

ExpressJet started off as Britt way back when. If you believe the Wikipedia entry on Britt, its origins go back all the way to 1964, over 55 years ago.
 
dca1
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:04 am

Does that mean ExpressJet is completely shutting down?
 
alpine1989
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:18 am

Subodh has a great track record. ATA, Air Jamaica, Jet Airways and now Express Jet.
 
enplaned
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:34 am

dca1 wrote:
Does that mean ExpressJet is completely shutting down?


"Phased wind-down of operations" - that seems pretty definitive.
 
B717fan
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:58 am

So what does this mean for Expressjet's E175's?
 
danipawa
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:02 am

ExpressJet with over 100 ERJ145 and Commutair with only 38...I dont understand...
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:03 am

B717fan wrote:
So what does this mean for Expressjet's E175's?


United pre-Covid announced it was removing them and reassign frames to Skywest.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:15 am

dca1 wrote:
Does that mean ExpressJet is completely shutting down?


They’ve gone to OO already. It’s curtains for ExpressJet. Skywest finally managed to find the way to kill them
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eugdjinn
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:16 am

danipawa wrote:
ExpressJet with over 100 ERJ145 and Commutair with only 38...I dont understand...


Um, no. Let's just set the record straight. ExpressJet is currently operating 23 aircraft. Not 100, not 90, not the 80something that Subodh's Linked In wants to claim. 23. In September it was to be 20.

ExpressJet has been internally inflating its numbers since SkyWest sold them off. I don't think they actually operated over 50 145s since the sale. They occasionally showed more than 50 by counting 20 or so parked in and around maintenance hangars, but no...

The actual larger operating carrier now, and for some months has been CommutAir.

As to the 175s - they are gone, have been gone, and are not coming back. They went to SkyWest and in today's Q2 earnings, were clearly noted by SkyWest as 'all on property as of 30 June 2020.' Done deal. [People who read in to the dummy schedule for future months by United that flights will be operated by ExpressJet on a 175, should look carefully to see if they can also book a UAX flight on Trans States. UAL is waiting to see what customers book before the final schedule is crafted. Nothing more, nothing less.]

Finally, let's be clear that far beyond SkyWest trying to kill ExpressJet (they once stupidly thought they could save it- gak!), the people of legacy ExpressJet have tried some six times to kill the airline and now succeeded. At least the logo and last vestiges of ASA can rest in peace too.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:37 am

This race-to-the-bottom on regionals by the majors has me wondering about the fate of the current survivors. SkyWest and Republic are currently riding high, they have most of the 76-seat flying, but are their costs getting "high", too? The number of seats in the "musical chairs" dance around E170/175 flying are about to get some snatched away when the contractural scope clauses start kicking in due to mainline fleet shrinkage caused by the pandemic.

Here are the regional airline casualties of 2020 (so far): 1) Compass (pre-Pandemic). 2) Trans States (pre-Pandemic). 3) Expressjet (Pandemic). Ones that look mighty shaky include: Piedmont, Envoy, PSA Airlines, GoJet and Air Wisconsin.

In the case of Piedmont, Envoy and PSA, I see AA emulating UAL and letting these three engage in a "The Hunger Games"-style battle to keep AA's remaining 50-seat ops, but with only one survivor. GoJet's parent company, Trans States Holdings has stated GoJet's limited CRJ550 ops for UA is financially unsustainable, so they are pretty much a zombie airline. Air Wisconsin is flying an old fleet of CRJ200's on a shrinking network for UA, with SkyWest and Republic both getting most of the ORD hub turns.
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:43 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
This race-to-the-bottom on regionals by the majors has me wondering about the fate of the current survivors. SkyWest and Republic are currently riding high, they have most of the 76-seat flying, but are their costs getting "high", too? The number of seats in the "musical chairs" dance around E170/175 flying are about to get some snatched away when the contractural scope clauses start kicking in due to mainline fleet shrinkage caused by the pandemic.

Here are the regional airline casualties of 2020 (so far): 1) Compass (pre-Pandemic). 2) Trans States (pre-Pandemic). 3) Expressjet (Pandemic). Ones that look mighty shaky include: Piedmont, Envoy, PSA Airlines, GoJet and Air Wisconsin.

In the case of Piedmont, Envoy and PSA, I see AA emulating UAL and letting these three engage in a "The Hunger Games"-style battle to keep AA's remaining 50-seat ops, but with only one survivor. GoJet's parent company, Trans States Holdings has stated GoJet's limited CRJ550 ops for UA is financially unsustainable, so they are pretty much a zombie airline. Air Wisconsin is flying an old fleet of CRJ200's on a shrinking network for UA, with SkyWest and Republic both getting most of the ORD hub turns.


The thing that helps OO & YX is, they own the leases on a good chunk of their fleet. Makes it harder for the mainline partner to take their ball and go home.

A Piedmont & Envoy merger is low hanging fruit, PSA has already ceased 50 seat flying. GoJet is probably done by the end of the year. Wisconsin might just pull a trick out of their hat again, but they're on moving ground at best.
From my cold, dead hands
 
Varsity1
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:00 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
This race-to-the-bottom on regionals by the majors has me wondering about the fate of the current survivors. SkyWest and Republic are currently riding high, they have most of the 76-seat flying, but are their costs getting "high", too? The number of seats in the "musical chairs" dance around E170/175 flying are about to get some snatched away when the contractural scope clauses start kicking in due to mainline fleet shrinkage caused by the pandemic.

Here are the regional airline casualties of 2020 (so far): 1) Compass (pre-Pandemic). 2) Trans States (pre-Pandemic). 3) Expressjet (Pandemic). Ones that look mighty shaky include: Piedmont, Envoy, PSA Airlines, GoJet and Air Wisconsin.

In the case of Piedmont, Envoy and PSA, I see AA emulating UAL and letting these three engage in a "The Hunger Games"-style battle to keep AA's remaining 50-seat ops, but with only one survivor. GoJet's parent company, Trans States Holdings has stated GoJet's limited CRJ550 ops for UA is financially unsustainable, so they are pretty much a zombie airline. Air Wisconsin is flying an old fleet of CRJ200's on a shrinking network for UA, with SkyWest and Republic both getting most of the ORD hub turns.


Piedmont doesn't have the maintenance support to fly the midwest or west like Envoy does. Setting it up would cost millions.

The flow to AA keeps the AA regionals low seniority and low cost at all times.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
dstblj52
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:11 am

Varsity1 wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
This race-to-the-bottom on regionals by the majors has me wondering about the fate of the current survivors. SkyWest and Republic are currently riding high, they have most of the 76-seat flying, but are their costs getting "high", too? The number of seats in the "musical chairs" dance around E170/175 flying are about to get some snatched away when the contractural scope clauses start kicking in due to mainline fleet shrinkage caused by the pandemic.

Here are the regional airline casualties of 2020 (so far): 1) Compass (pre-Pandemic). 2) Trans States (pre-Pandemic). 3) Expressjet (Pandemic). Ones that look mighty shaky include: Piedmont, Envoy, PSA Airlines, GoJet and Air Wisconsin.

In the case of Piedmont, Envoy and PSA, I see AA emulating UAL and letting these three engage in a "The Hunger Games"-style battle to keep AA's remaining 50-seat ops, but with only one survivor. GoJet's parent company, Trans States Holdings has stated GoJet's limited CRJ550 ops for UA is financially unsustainable, so they are pretty much a zombie airline. Air Wisconsin is flying an old fleet of CRJ200's on a shrinking network for UA, with SkyWest and Republic both getting most of the ORD hub turns.


Piedmont doesn't have the maintenance support to fly the midwest or west like Envoy does. Setting it up would cost millions.

The flow to AA keeps the AA regionals low seniority and low cost at all times.

Yeah flow saved envoy back when it was eagle it was a super senior carrier now it's only got a few lifers left and everyone else is year 8 or below I believe
 
joeblow10
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:12 am

The entire industry is going to be decimated Oct 1, that’s a fact. But I also think the future of the regionals isn’t as bleak (long term) as people think. It’s going to be very ugly for airlines of all sizes until next summer at least, but after that, once the recovery begins, there will be the need for these carriers and pilots again. A forest fire clears the way for new trees...

Also important that 10-20% of pilots at the mainline carriers are taking exit packages or long term leaves. Some may be back, but that’s still going to leave a lot of seats to fill in the long run. Even if it takes 5-10 years to get back to 2019 levels, give it 15-20, and the overall growth will still see the need for more many more planes and a lot more pilots
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:28 am

flight152 wrote:
eugdjinn wrote:
(I think it's a safe bet that C5 will have a hiring event for mechanics in CLE real soon, and likely open an MX base there, in a hangar rented by UA perhaps?)


Talk about making no sense. Why would C5 want to open a maintenance base in a city which they have no flying?? There is zero E145 flying in the UA CLE schedule.


The C5 Headquarters is off the north end of the CLE runway.
They used to have a maint base there, and the hangar is still likely sitting empty.. The no longer used commuter gates and ramp, were being used as parking space for C5 jets the last I heard
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:31 am

strfyr51 wrote:
dstblj52 wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
Live by the sword, die by the sword. With few exceptions, regionals are not in full control on their destinies and depend on the "mother" airline to do it for them. This is the end result, time and time again

Yep its made worse in these cases because united owns all the 145's in question so the airlines own nothing

well? If United can't find anybody to fly their airplanes at the Price they want to PAY? Then they'll have to fly them themselves.. Then they can SEE what it takes to fly them and not just speculate on the subject. If nobody was going for the deal? Then there wouldn't BE any deal would there?
I'm not sorry this is happening as maybe United will run out of "Suckers" to mess Over every other year.
Somebody has Got to fly the airplanes or turn them into Beer Cans, and this is just another "Whipsaw" move.


There is always someone with $200k in flight school debt willing to to fly for peanuts, and sometimes even pay for the privilege.
 
alasizon
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:35 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
flight152 wrote:
eugdjinn wrote:
(I think it's a safe bet that C5 will have a hiring event for mechanics in CLE real soon, and likely open an MX base there, in a hangar rented by UA perhaps?)


Talk about making no sense. Why would C5 want to open a maintenance base in a city which they have no flying?? There is zero E145 flying in the UA CLE schedule.


The C5 Headquarters is off the north end of the CLE runway.
They used to have a maint base there, and the hangar is still likely sitting empty.. The no longer used commuter gates and ramp, were being used as parking space for C5 jets the last I heard


Just because their HQ is there is no reason to assume they will have a MX base there. Very useless to have a MX base at a city at which you do no flying.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 939
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:45 am

jonair8 wrote:
Definitely a sad day in aviation today. Unfortunately I think this is only the beginning of large cuts to come elsewhere in the industry. Time will tell whether other regionals will suffer the same fate. My thoughts are with everyone at EV.

Unfortunately, I was expecting UA to do business with C5 instead of EV. It is interesting to see how they at first were going to invest largely in the E45 fleet, transfer the former AX aircraft to EV, and open a DEN base. At one point, it was looking that OO would lose a good chunk of CR2 flying there in favor of the EV E45. Now, it will be interesting to see how the remaining E45 flying will be deployed in the system with only C5 at the wheel. Wonder how IAH will turn out. YX already announced the closure of IAH as a base for them through internal memos found on other media sites, so I feel more is on the way at United Express.


In the OO earnings release, it was noted that they own outright 36 of the 200's coming off of the Delta contract, with 19 others going back to mother Delta.

Cheap flying, especially with a glut of pilots. OO can have 20+ flying in Houston in 4 weeks or less.
 
Tailwinds
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Re: The whipsaw is starting back up

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:01 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Independence Air did that to themselves!! Atlantic Coast was the original name and they were the United Darling out of IAD. United hit hard times and did a LOT of cutting in our OWN house so they HAD to do some external cutting or WE might have rebelled as well.


The speed with which United employees went from calling me and us a Piece of Excrement for undercutting them with low wages to being a Piece of Excrement for not taking a pay cut on their behalf astonishes me to this day/post.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:10 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
This race-to-the-bottom on regionals by the majors has me wondering about the fate of the current survivors. SkyWest and Republic are currently riding high, they have most of the 76-seat flying, but are their costs getting "high", too? The number of seats in the "musical chairs" dance around E170/175 flying are about to get some snatched away when the contractural scope clauses start kicking in due to mainline fleet shrinkage caused by the pandemic.

Here are the regional airline casualties of 2020 (so far): 1) Compass (pre-Pandemic). 2) Trans States (pre-Pandemic). 3) Expressjet (Pandemic). Ones that look mighty shaky include: Piedmont, Envoy, PSA Airlines, GoJet and Air Wisconsin.

In the case of Piedmont, Envoy and PSA, I see AA emulating UAL and letting these three engage in a "The Hunger Games"-style battle to keep AA's remaining 50-seat ops, but with only one survivor. GoJet's parent company, Trans States Holdings has stated GoJet's limited CRJ550 ops for UA is financially unsustainable, so they are pretty much a zombie airline. Air Wisconsin is flying an old fleet of CRJ200's on a shrinking network for UA, with SkyWest and Republic both getting most of the ORD hub turns.

Quality and reliability have a price.
OO noted the the Q2 completion rate was 99.97%. 99.96 with controllable. Republic is likely right there as well.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:13 am

DiamondFlyer wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
This race-to-the-bottom on regionals by the majors has me wondering about the fate of the current survivors. SkyWest and Republic are currently riding high, they have most of the 76-seat flying, but are their costs getting "high", too? The number of seats in the "musical chairs" dance around E170/175 flying are about to get some snatched away when the contractural scope clauses start kicking in due to mainline fleet shrinkage caused by the pandemic.

Here are the regional airline casualties of 2020 (so far): 1) Compass (pre-Pandemic). 2) Trans States (pre-Pandemic). 3) Expressjet (Pandemic). Ones that look mighty shaky include: Piedmont, Envoy, PSA Airlines, GoJet and Air Wisconsin.

In the case of Piedmont, Envoy and PSA, I see AA emulating UAL and letting these three engage in a "The Hunger Games"-style battle to keep AA's remaining 50-seat ops, but with only one survivor. GoJet's parent company, Trans States Holdings has stated GoJet's limited CRJ550 ops for UA is financially unsustainable, so they are pretty much a zombie airline. Air Wisconsin is flying an old fleet of CRJ200's on a shrinking network for UA, with SkyWest and Republic both getting most of the ORD hub turns.


The thing that helps OO & YX is, they own the leases on a good chunk of their fleet. Makes it harder for the mainline partner to take their ball and go home.

A Piedmont & Envoy merger is low hanging fruit, PSA has already ceased 50 seat flying. GoJet is probably done by the end of the year. Wisconsin might just pull a trick out of their hat again, but they're on moving ground at best.

Piedmont has a very large ground service operation, likely larger than the airline itself.
 
drdisque
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:20 am

Most of those E145's being stored on the CLE ramp are actually ones returned from Trans States that UA owned. It's likely that they will added to the C5 certificate as needed as I believe they are the younger, lower cycle frames, including any XR's that aren't already with C5.

I have no horse in this fight, either way we probably weren't getting many UAX E145's back at ORD (1-class 50 seaters appear to be likely all ZW and OO CR2's for the foreseeable future).

UA can easily schedule in C5-operated CLE-IAD and CLE-EWR flights to rotate them in and out of a maintenance base at CLE. They could also just ferry to IAD or EWR or to a nearby outstation they serve. What will be interesting to see will what they will schedule for the 50 seat flying at IAH. That has been solid Expressjet for a very long time. They could either have C5 or OO open a new base there. The C5 base would be fairly isolated (maybe a handful of outstations in the south might be served by C8 from both IAH and IAD) while an OO base could bridge over to DEN over numerous points in the southwest.
 
Antarius
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:35 am

alpine1989 wrote:
Subodh has a great track record. ATA, Air Jamaica, Jet Airways and now Express Jet.


He was at Commutair too!

Given his track record, was he involved in SABENA too?
2020: SFO DFW IAH HOU CLT MEX BIS MIA GUA ORD DTW LGA BOS LHR DUB BFS BHD STN OAK PHL ISP JFK SJC DEN SJU LAS TXL GDL
 
LCDFlight
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:45 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
News story

United tells two regional airlines it will continue contract with just one
https://www.reuters.com/article/healthc ... SL2N2EY225


It is looking more and more like Expressjet will be the loser in this stand-off with Commutair due to cost. EV has already sent WARN Act pre-furlough notices to their pilots. With no other major airline customer, it seems unlikely that Expressjet will survive if they lose the United contract.

Looking at the bigger picture with the regionals, I believe the days of major-branded regional services to many smaller cities may be ended soon. These services will be added to the growing pile of EAS markets that will relegated to prop-centric airlines like Boutique, and/or Cape Air.


Mike Boyd is warning of a DRASTIC drawdown in US small RJ flying over the next 6-10 months, something in excess of 1,000 frames, with no replacements in the pipeline.
He is predicting that this will dramatically effect flying to small and medium cities.

Boyd can be a bit dramatic at times, but his logic here seems solid. Lots of older RJ's flying now, some 20 years old or more.


He said that 15 years ago also, and he was wrong then.

The trouble is this. When the business pushes you against a wall, a 50 seater is actually kind of nice to keep your network alive for your highest revenue passengers. You lose the least money with a 50 seater. COVID is surely this type of situation. But I think carriers are bound by a minimum mainline fleet size.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:19 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:

It is looking more and more like Expressjet will be the loser in this stand-off with Commutair due to cost. EV has already sent WARN Act pre-furlough notices to their pilots. With no other major airline customer, it seems unlikely that Expressjet will survive if they lose the United contract.

Looking at the bigger picture with the regionals, I believe the days of major-branded regional services to many smaller cities may be ended soon. These services will be added to the growing pile of EAS markets that will relegated to prop-centric airlines like Boutique, and/or Cape Air.


Mike Boyd is warning of a DRASTIC drawdown in US small RJ flying over the next 6-10 months, something in excess of 1,000 frames, with no replacements in the pipeline.
He is predicting that this will dramatically effect flying to small and medium cities.

Boyd can be a bit dramatic at times, but his logic here seems solid. Lots of older RJ's flying now, some 20 years old or more.


He said that 15 years ago also, and he was wrong then.

The trouble is this. When the business pushes you against a wall, a 50 seater is actually kind of nice to keep your network alive for your highest revenue passengers. You lose the least money with a 50 seater. COVID is surely this type of situation. But I think carriers are bound by a minimum mainline fleet size.


The problem is a 50 seater becomes a 33 seater with social distancing.

That is where larger aircraft with lower seat mile costs become better
 
flight152
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:00 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:

Mike Boyd is warning of a DRASTIC drawdown in US small RJ flying over the next 6-10 months, something in excess of 1,000 frames, with no replacements in the pipeline.
He is predicting that this will dramatically effect flying to small and medium cities.

Boyd can be a bit dramatic at times, but his logic here seems solid. Lots of older RJ's flying now, some 20 years old or more.


He said that 15 years ago also, and he was wrong then.

The trouble is this. When the business pushes you against a wall, a 50 seater is actually kind of nice to keep your network alive for your highest revenue passengers. You lose the least money with a 50 seater. COVID is surely this type of situation. But I think carriers are bound by a minimum mainline fleet size.


The problem is a 50 seater becomes a 33 seater with social distancing.

That is where larger aircraft with lower seat mile costs become better

Except United isn’t limiting people on aircraft.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6193
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:16 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:

Mike Boyd is warning of a DRASTIC drawdown in US small RJ flying over the next 6-10 months, something in excess of 1,000 frames, with no replacements in the pipeline.
He is predicting that this will dramatically effect flying to small and medium cities.

Boyd can be a bit dramatic at times, but his logic here seems solid. Lots of older RJ's flying now, some 20 years old or more.


He said that 15 years ago also, and he was wrong then.

The trouble is this. When the business pushes you against a wall, a 50 seater is actually kind of nice to keep your network alive for your highest revenue passengers. You lose the least money with a 50 seater. COVID is surely this type of situation. But I think carriers are bound by a minimum mainline fleet size.


The problem is a 50 seater becomes a 33 seater with social distancing.

That is where larger aircraft with lower seat mile costs become better


UA and AA arent limiting seats to social distancing.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
danipawa
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:17 pm

so the ERJ145 going to transfer to C5 ?
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:20 pm

danipawa wrote:
so the ERJ145 going to transfer to C5 ?


C5 already flies E145s and has some parked. Xjets will probably be parked. Kirby said he doesn’t see a path forward for the 50 seater. I imagine then next fight will be between SkyWest and air Wisconsin.
 
eugdjinn
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:55 pm

For those who haven't been watching, a substantial number of the E145 fleet have already been flown by XJet to IGM, (Kingman, AZ) and are in storage. I believe there are 27-30 actually in ExpressJet's hands at the moment, if you don't count the Trans States birds sitting in CLE.

And the reason to add the CLE mechanics and a base there is that that is the team and location that did heavy checks on the fleet for EV. Since neither Trans States nor CommutAir had that capacity, CommutAir will have to develop it or as I was suggesting, grab it. I'd also bet that the parts inventories that ExpressJet maintenance started counting and boxing for 'ease of inventory' a month ago might make sense to send there. I understand that Albany is C5's senior maintenance facility, but CLE may be more convenient going forward. Especially if Mama U is paying for the hangar.

Once again, the larger object lesson is to never, never trust United if you work for a contractor who is beholden to UAL. Never.
 
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airportugal310
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Re: United potentially moving towards one E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:23 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

He said that 15 years ago also, and he was wrong then.

The trouble is this. When the business pushes you against a wall, a 50 seater is actually kind of nice to keep your network alive for your highest revenue passengers. You lose the least money with a 50 seater. COVID is surely this type of situation. But I think carriers are bound by a minimum mainline fleet size.


The problem is a 50 seater becomes a 33 seater with social distancing.

That is where larger aircraft with lower seat mile costs become better


UA and AA arent limiting seats to social distancing.


Which causes people to not want to fly them, leading to the same general problem anyways
“They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.”
 
TonyClifton
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:24 pm

eugdjinn wrote:
For those who haven't been watching, a substantial number of the E145 fleet have already been flown by XJet to IGM, (Kingman, AZ) and are in storage. I believe there are 27-30 actually in ExpressJet's hands at the moment, if you don't count the Trans States birds sitting in CLE.

And the reason to add the CLE mechanics and a base there is that that is the team and location that did heavy checks on the fleet for EV. Since neither Trans States nor CommutAir had that capacity, CommutAir will have to develop it or as I was suggesting, grab it. I'd also bet that the parts inventories that ExpressJet maintenance started counting and boxing for 'ease of inventory' a month ago might make sense to send there. I understand that Albany is C5's senior maintenance facility, but CLE may be more convenient going forward. Especially if Mama U is paying for the hangar.

Once again, the larger object lesson is to never, never trust United if you work for a contractor who is beholden to UAL. Never.

It’s a risky move staying at a regional for an entire career. Majors aren’t immune to furloughs either, of course, but ultimately you’re doing your own flying, and not beholden to CPAs and hoping you make the cut every few years.

This is really the first downtown we’ve seen regionals shrink. 2001 era downturn saw the explosion of 50-70 seaters, and 2008 onwards saw the 76s added to the mix. The post-2012 era contracts at majors started to clamp down on CPA flying and wind some of it back in.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:32 pm

eugdjinn wrote:

Once again, the larger object lesson is to never, never trust United if you work for a contractor who is beholden to UAL. Never.

Or DL who did ComAir dirty and shut down Compass. Or American who dropped Air Wisconsin like a hot potato. It’s just all a part of the regional game.
 
Alias1024
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:49 pm

Really terrible news for everyone at ExpressJet. Not that there's ever a good time to lose your job, but this is a particularly horrible time to be looking for employment in the aviation industry.

FLALEFTY wrote:
This race-to-the-bottom on regionals by the majors has me wondering about the fate of the current survivors. SkyWest and Republic are currently riding high, they have most of the 76-seat flying, but are their costs getting "high", too? The number of seats in the "musical chairs" dance around E170/175 flying are about to get some snatched away when the contractural scope clauses start kicking in due to mainline fleet shrinkage caused by the pandemic.

No guarantees, but it seems like historically the wholly-owned carriers are the ones to take it in the shorts during industry downturns. It's far easier to shrink or eliminate a wholly-owned like Comair or ExpressJet than an independent company that will take you to court if you try to breach their CPA. Trans States and Compass had the unfortunate combination of close in contract expirations and terrible ownership/management heading into this crisis. GoJet has the same ownership problem, plus likely higher overhead with the other two TSH airlines gone, and they fly a premium configured CRJ in a market that suddenly has no premium demand.

I'd rather be at SkyWest or Republic right now than at any of the AA wholly-owned carriers. Endeavor seems relatively safe only because DL has already rationalized their regional feed, though I could see them having some flying trimmed if DL needs to shift block hours to SkyWest or Republic to meet CPA minimums. CommutAir won this round, but it still isn't clear where United is headed long term with both Air Wisconsin and SkyWest offering 50-seat lift.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
N766UA
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:48 pm

What a shame. Expressjet was obviously going to be more expensive, but they're a much better, more experienced employee group. Commutair is so JV by comparison. All UAL cares about is the bottom line, though, and it shows in their Express roster.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:11 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
Really terrible news for everyone at ExpressJet. Not that there's ever a good time to lose your job, but this is a particularly horrible time to be looking for employment in the aviation industry.

FLALEFTY wrote:
This race-to-the-bottom on regionals by the majors has me wondering about the fate of the current survivors. SkyWest and Republic are currently riding high, they have most of the 76-seat flying, but are their costs getting "high", too? The number of seats in the "musical chairs" dance around E170/175 flying are about to get some snatched away when the contractural scope clauses start kicking in due to mainline fleet shrinkage caused by the pandemic.

No guarantees, but it seems like historically the wholly-owned carriers are the ones to take it in the shorts during industry downturns. It's far easier to shrink or eliminate a wholly-owned like Comair or ExpressJet than an independent company that will take you to court if you try to breach their CPA. Trans States and Compass had the unfortunate combination of close in contract expirations and terrible ownership/management heading into this crisis. GoJet has the same ownership problem, plus likely higher overhead with the other two TSH airlines gone, and they fly a premium configured CRJ in a market that suddenly has no premium demand.

I'd rather be at SkyWest or Republic right now than at any of the AA wholly-owned carriers. Endeavor seems relatively safe only because DL has already rationalized their regional feed, though I could see them having some flying trimmed if DL needs to shift block hours to SkyWest or Republic to meet CPA minimums. CommutAir won this round, but it still isn't clear where United is headed long term with both Air Wisconsin and SkyWest offering 50-seat lift.


Good point about the mainline-owned regionals. I remember Delta's evisceration of Comair and AA slashing American Eagle to bits (Envoy being the surviving portion). If I were working for Horizon Air and this "Hunger Games" trend pitting regionals against each other catches fire, I'd be nervous, since airlines tend to copy cost-cutting strategies.

Since the 50-seater jets, E145's and CRJ100/200's are now aging into their 20's (all with very high cycles) and with no modern replacement, the 50-seat jet's days of service are waning fast. I still think the Big 3 will be visiting bankruptcy court in the foreseeable future and will use their "too big to fail" and a pro-corporate judicial system to void their current pilot contracts and their highly-restrictive scope clauses. Look for the E175E2 (the only new-gen regional jet currently available) to finally be declared "scope-compliant" in the new, post-BK contracts and the capacity limit pushed up to 80 seats.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:30 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
Really terrible news for everyone at ExpressJet. Not that there's ever a good time to lose your job, but this is a particularly horrible time to be looking for employment in the aviation industry.

FLALEFTY wrote:
This race-to-the-bottom on regionals by the majors has me wondering about the fate of the current survivors. SkyWest and Republic are currently riding high, they have most of the 76-seat flying, but are their costs getting "high", too? The number of seats in the "musical chairs" dance around E170/175 flying are about to get some snatched away when the contractural scope clauses start kicking in due to mainline fleet shrinkage caused by the pandemic.

No guarantees, but it seems like historically the wholly-owned carriers are the ones to take it in the shorts during industry downturns. It's far easier to shrink or eliminate a wholly-owned like Comair or ExpressJet than an independent company that will take you to court if you try to breach their CPA. Trans States and Compass had the unfortunate combination of close in contract expirations and terrible ownership/management heading into this crisis. GoJet has the same ownership problem, plus likely higher overhead with the other two TSH airlines gone, and they fly a premium configured CRJ in a market that suddenly has no premium demand.

I'd rather be at SkyWest or Republic right now than at any of the AA wholly-owned carriers. Endeavor seems relatively safe only because DL has already rationalized their regional feed, though I could see them having some flying trimmed if DL needs to shift block hours to SkyWest or Republic to meet CPA minimums. CommutAir won this round, but it still isn't clear where United is headed long term with both Air Wisconsin and SkyWest offering 50-seat lift.


Good point about the mainline-owned regionals. I remember Delta's evisceration of Comair and AA slashing American Eagle to bits (Envoy being the surviving portion). If I were working for Horizon Air and this "Hunger Games" trend pitting regionals against each other catches fire, I'd be nervous, since airlines tend to copy cost-cutting strategies.

Since the 50-seater jets, E145's and CRJ100/200's are now aging into their 20's (all with very high cycles) and with no modern replacement, the 50-seat jet's days of service are waning fast. I still think the Big 3 will be visiting bankruptcy court in the foreseeable future and will use their "too big to fail" and a pro-corporate judicial system to void their current pilot contracts and their highly-restrictive scope clauses. Look for the E175E2 (the only new-gen regional jet currently available) to finally be declared "scope-compliant" in the new, post-BK contracts and the capacity limit pushed up to 80 seats.


Bankruptcy does not give company free reign to void an entire contract nor does it give them free reign to rewrite entire sections.

Previous SCOPE relaxations happened during bankruptcy but actually happened outside the courts. United’s big SCOPE relaxation was prior to bankruptcy in 2003 and was done to save the pensions......which went in Bankruptcy anyway
 
Scarebus34
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:48 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
Really terrible news for everyone at ExpressJet. Not that there's ever a good time to lose your job, but this is a particularly horrible time to be looking for employment in the aviation industry.

FLALEFTY wrote:
This race-to-the-bottom on regionals by the majors has me wondering about the fate of the current survivors. SkyWest and Republic are currently riding high, they have most of the 76-seat flying, but are their costs getting "high", too? The number of seats in the "musical chairs" dance around E170/175 flying are about to get some snatched away when the contractural scope clauses start kicking in due to mainline fleet shrinkage caused by the pandemic.

No guarantees, but it seems like historically the wholly-owned carriers are the ones to take it in the shorts during industry downturns. It's far easier to shrink or eliminate a wholly-owned like Comair or ExpressJet than an independent company that will take you to court if you try to breach their CPA. Trans States and Compass had the unfortunate combination of close in contract expirations and terrible ownership/management heading into this crisis. GoJet has the same ownership problem, plus likely higher overhead with the other two TSH airlines gone, and they fly a premium configured CRJ in a market that suddenly has no premium demand.

I'd rather be at SkyWest or Republic right now than at any of the AA wholly-owned carriers. Endeavor seems relatively safe only because DL has already rationalized their regional feed, though I could see them having some flying trimmed if DL needs to shift block hours to SkyWest or Republic to meet CPA minimums. CommutAir won this round, but it still isn't clear where United is headed long term with both Air Wisconsin and SkyWest offering 50-seat lift.


Good point about the mainline-owned regionals. I remember Delta's evisceration of Comair and AA slashing American Eagle to bits (Envoy being the surviving portion). If I were working for Horizon Air and this "Hunger Games" trend pitting regionals against each other catches fire, I'd be nervous, since airlines tend to copy cost-cutting strategies.

Since the 50-seater jets, E145's and CRJ100/200's are now aging into their 20's (all with very high cycles) and with no modern replacement, the 50-seat jet's days of service are waning fast. I still think the Big 3 will be visiting bankruptcy court in the foreseeable future and will use their "too big to fail" and a pro-corporate judicial system to void their current pilot contracts and their highly-restrictive scope clauses. Look for the E175E2 (the only new-gen regional jet currently available) to finally be declared "scope-compliant" in the new, post-BK contracts and the capacity limit pushed up to 80 seats.


Don't hold your breath waiting for any major to declare bankruptcy. It's not going to happen.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:23 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
No guarantees, but it seems like historically the wholly-owned carriers are the ones to take it in the shorts during industry downturns. It's far easier to shrink or eliminate a wholly-owned like Comair or ExpressJet than an independent company that will take you to court if you try to breach their CPA. Trans States and Compass had the unfortunate combination of close in contract expirations and terrible ownership/management heading into this crisis. GoJet has the same ownership problem, plus likely higher overhead with the other two TSH airlines gone, and they fly a premium configured CRJ in a market that suddenly has no premium demand.

I'd rather be at SkyWest or Republic right now than at any of the AA wholly-owned carriers. Endeavor seems relatively safe only because DL has already rationalized their regional feed, though I could see them having some flying trimmed if DL needs to shift block hours to SkyWest or Republic to meet CPA minimums. CommutAir won this round, but it still isn't clear where United is headed long term with both Air Wisconsin and SkyWest offering 50-seat lift.


Good point about the mainline-owned regionals. I remember Delta's evisceration of Comair and AA slashing American Eagle to bits (Envoy being the surviving portion). If I were working for Horizon Air and this "Hunger Games" trend pitting regionals against each other catches fire, I'd be nervous, since airlines tend to copy cost-cutting strategies.

Since the 50-seater jets, E145's and CRJ100/200's are now aging into their 20's (all with very high cycles) and with no modern replacement, the 50-seat jet's days of service are waning fast. I still think the Big 3 will be visiting bankruptcy court in the foreseeable future and will use their "too big to fail" and a pro-corporate judicial system to void their current pilot contracts and their highly-restrictive scope clauses. Look for the E175E2 (the only new-gen regional jet currently available) to finally be declared "scope-compliant" in the new, post-BK contracts and the capacity limit pushed up to 80 seats.


Bankruptcy does not give company free reign to void an entire contract nor does it give them free reign to rewrite entire sections.

Previous SCOPE relaxations happened during bankruptcy but actually happened outside the courts. United’s big SCOPE relaxation was prior to bankruptcy in 2003 and was done to save the pensions......which went in Bankruptcy anyway[/quote]

No, Ch 11 doesn't give the carrier the unrestricted right to void labor contracts. Judges must approve waivers under Section 1113. There are carrier requests that have been rejected in the past two decades, so a motion doesn't lead automatically to termination.

On the other side, Ch 11 would allow termination of a CPA contract.
 
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JBo
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Re: Updated: United selects CommutAir as sole E145 operator

Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:28 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
In the case of Piedmont, Envoy and PSA, I see AA emulating UAL and letting these three engage in a "The Hunger Games"-style battle to keep AA's remaining 50-seat ops, but with only one survivor. GoJet's parent company, Trans States Holdings has stated GoJet's limited CRJ550 ops for UA is financially unsustainable, so they are pretty much a zombie airline. Air Wisconsin is flying an old fleet of CRJ200's on a shrinking network for UA, with SkyWest and Republic both getting most of the ORD hub turns.


I'd bet that AA will eventually consolidate Piedmont, Envoy, and PSA into one carrier, one way or another.

Either SkyWest or Mesa will take over the 550s for GoJet, which will be the final nail for the Trans States family.

Air Wisconsin owns all of their aircraft outright. If UA dumps their contract and they can't sign with AA or DL, I could see them making a go at independent branded ops and pursuing EAS contracts in the midwest, and signing interline agreements for hub connections.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.

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