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Breeze - News and Discussion Thread - 2020

In addition to the former Air Canada E190 registered N90NA, there is a second Breeze aircraft being prepared in Costa Rica



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eqdsq4bXIAI ... ame=medium

Someone also said that there's an aircraft in Macon. Is that still the case?

What's the latest targeted start date? Thank you.

Kudos to Breeze for not having any euro White on their aircraft. Now just waiting to see where they actually fly!

That paint scheme is going to look amazing on the A220!

It looks like Breeze has one E190 leased from Azul (this is the one stored at MCN). The two at the MRO shop in Costa Rica (see photo upthread) are ex-Air Canada E190's, are also leased and should be ready for Breeze soon. Breeze is supposed to lease another 29 ex-Azul E190's as they launch and start to expand services.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Breeze-Airways

I wonder what the delivery schedule for the 60 A223's looks like?

FLALEFTY wrote:

It looks like Breeze has one E190 leased from Azul (this is the one stored at MCN). The two at the MRO shop in Costa Rica (see photo upthread) are ex-Air Canada E190's, are also leased and should be ready for Breeze soon. Breeze is supposed to lease another 29 ex-Azul E190's as they launch and start to expand services.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Breeze-Airways

I wonder what the delivery schedule for the 60 A223's looks like?

I find it facinating Breeze is taking on so many Ejets when the resale value plumeted. I would love to know the terms.

They just might enter service with enough vaccinated to open back up travel. I cannot wait to fly on their A220s.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

It looks like Breeze has one E190 leased from Azul (this is the one stored at MCN). The two at the MRO shop in Costa Rica (see photo upthread) are ex-Air Canada E190's, are also leased and should be ready for Breeze soon. Breeze is supposed to lease another 29 ex-Azul E190's as they launch and start to expand services.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Breeze-Airways

I wonder what the delivery schedule for the 60 A223's looks like?

I find it facinating Breeze is taking on so many Ejets when the resale value plumeted. I would love to know the terms.

They just might enter service with enough vaccinated to open back up travel. I cannot wait to fly on their A220s.

Lightsaber

Here's an early-2020 article about Breeze that mentions their deal for the Azul E195's (sorry, I typed E190 in the earlier post in reference to the one Azul E195 already delivered). The E195's are to be subleased from Azul, although LOT has "first dibs" on them before Breeze even gets a chance to sublease them. I guess Breeze grabbed the ex-Air Canada E190's for a good, quick deal so Breeze could start preparing to launch services this Spring? The article also mentions that Breeze plans to operate the EJet's along side the BCS3's. I wonder if they are knocking on American's door seeing if they can score a good deal on AA's recently-retired E190 fleet?

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... 020-launch

FLALEFTY wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

It looks like Breeze has one E190 leased from Azul (this is the one stored at MCN). The two at the MRO shop in Costa Rica (see photo upthread) are ex-Air Canada E190's, are also leased and should be ready for Breeze soon. Breeze is supposed to lease another 29 ex-Azul E190's as they launch and start to expand services.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Breeze-Airways

I wonder what the delivery schedule for the 60 A223's looks like?

I find it facinating Breeze is taking on so many Ejets when the resale value plumeted. I would love to know the terms.

They just might enter service with enough vaccinated to open back up travel. I cannot wait to fly on their A220s.

Lightsaber

Here's an early-2020 article about Breeze that mentions their deal for the Azul E195's (sorry, I typed E190 in the earlier post in reference to the one Azul E195 already delivered). The E195's are to be subleased from Azul, although LOT has "first dibs" on them before Breeze even gets a chance to sublease them. I guess Breeze grabbed the ex-Air Canada E190's for a good, quick deal so Breeze could start preparing to launch services this Spring? The article also mentions that Breeze plans to operate the EJet's along side the BCS3's. I wonder if they are knocking on American's door seeing if they can score a good deal on AA's recently-retired E190 fleet?

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... 020-launch

Which brings me back to, what are the terms?
https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/

If we look, only the once mighty 777-300ER dropped more in value at 15 years than the 37% drop in values of the E190LR in that above link.

So how much of that discount has Breeze realized? I would think they are looking at other aircraft due to current pricing.
But airlines are getting rid of E190/195s due to high engine overhaul costs and high fuel burn. JetBlue claims a 40% reduction per seat in fuel burn, a 30% reduction in costs:
https://guyanaaviation.com/2020/12/31/j ... -aircraft/

A 40% reduction in fuel burn per seat means the A220 burns less fuel per flight than the E190! JetBlue is supposed to have 140 seats per flight, so the A223 burns 84% of the fuel of the E190 (assuming JetBlue's claim is correct). That means the E1-190 and E1-195 are only suitable for low utilization due (high variable cost, low fixed cost where one only flies when a customer pays a premium), but only if the price is right to achieve low fixed costs.

I'm a huge fan of an upper scale Allegiant model which is how I perceive Breeze. Yes, they will do far more and the app, if done right, should cut costs and help produce revenue.

Lightsaber

FLALEFTY wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

It looks like Breeze has one E190 leased from Azul (this is the one stored at MCN). The two at the MRO shop in Costa Rica (see photo upthread) are ex-Air Canada E190's, are also leased and should be ready for Breeze soon. Breeze is supposed to lease another 29 ex-Azul E190's as they launch and start to expand services.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Breeze-Airways

I wonder what the delivery schedule for the 60 A223's looks like?

I find it facinating Breeze is taking on so many Ejets when the resale value plumeted. I would love to know the terms.

They just might enter service with enough vaccinated to open back up travel. I cannot wait to fly on their A220s.

Lightsaber

Here's an early-2020 article about Breeze that mentions their deal for the Azul E195's (sorry, I typed E190 in the earlier post in reference to the one Azul E195 already delivered). The E195's are to be subleased from Azul, although LOT has "first dibs" on them before Breeze even gets a chance to sublease them. I guess Breeze grabbed the ex-Air Canada E190's for a good, quick deal so Breeze could start preparing to launch services this Spring? The article also mentions that Breeze plans to operate the EJet's along side the BCS3's. I wonder if they are knocking on American's door seeing if they can score a good deal on AA's recently-retired E190 fleet?

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... 020-launch

Jetran's sixteen former AA E190s are heading to Australia.
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/alliance-get-16-e190s/

Four left if they want/can get.

rj1385 wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I find it facinating Breeze is taking on so many Ejets when the resale value plumeted. I would love to know the terms.

They just might enter service with enough vaccinated to open back up travel. I cannot wait to fly on their A220s.

Lightsaber

Here's an early-2020 article about Breeze that mentions their deal for the Azul E195's (sorry, I typed E190 in the earlier post in reference to the one Azul E195 already delivered). The E195's are to be subleased from Azul, although LOT has "first dibs" on them before Breeze even gets a chance to sublease them. I guess Breeze grabbed the ex-Air Canada E190's for a good, quick deal so Breeze could start preparing to launch services this Spring? The article also mentions that Breeze plans to operate the EJet's along side the BCS3's. I wonder if they are knocking on American's door seeing if they can score a good deal on AA's recently-retired E190 fleet?

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... 020-launch

Jetran's sixteen former AA E190s are heading to Australia.
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/alliance-get-16-e190s/

Four left if they want/can get.

Wow! Just $65M (US) for 16 E190's! That's just slightly more than $4M per bird, which is a bargain. The low price Alliance paid to AA will buy a lot of fuel and cover the expensive engine overhauls for a while. Also, these airframes are only 13-15 years old and still have plenty of good service life left.

Meanwhile, Breeze firmed-up their BCS3 order for 60 birds back in January 2019 during the "Pre-COVID Era of Good Feeling". The plan was to have them start deliveries in April 2021. But I wonder if their delivery schedule will be moving to the right like so many other airlines have done with their open new aircraft orders?

lightsaber wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

It looks like Breeze has one E190 leased from Azul (this is the one stored at MCN). The two at the MRO shop in Costa Rica (see photo upthread) are ex-Air Canada E190's, are also leased and should be ready for Breeze soon. Breeze is supposed to lease another 29 ex-Azul E190's as they launch and start to expand services.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Breeze-Airways

I wonder what the delivery schedule for the 60 A223's looks like?

I find it facinating Breeze is taking on so many Ejets when the resale value plumeted. I would love to know the terms.

They just might enter service with enough vaccinated to open back up travel. I cannot wait to fly on their A220s.

Lightsaber

Let’s just say their lease terms, as well as their associated break even load factor and required utilization rate of the 190/195s, is nothing short of unbelievable.

If they are already painting their aircraft, doesn't it mean they should be launching soon, or at least in the next 4 to 5 months?

Are they still fighting with the FAA about getting an operating certificate? Can’t do a damn thing without that.

Do you think Breeze will serve any big markets like ATL, MIA, JFK or DFW from smaller airports?

JoseSalazar wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

It looks like Breeze has one E190 leased from Azul (this is the one stored at MCN). The two at the MRO shop in Costa Rica (see photo upthread) are ex-Air Canada E190's, are also leased and should be ready for Breeze soon. Breeze is supposed to lease another 29 ex-Azul E190's as they launch and start to expand services.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Breeze-Airways

I wonder what the delivery schedule for the 60 A223's looks like?

I find it facinating Breeze is taking on so many Ejets when the resale value plumeted. I would love to know the terms.

They just might enter service with enough vaccinated to open back up travel. I cannot wait to fly on their A220s.

Lightsaber

Let’s just say their lease terms, as well as their associated break even load factor and required utilization rate of the 190/195s, is nothing short of unbelievable.

Ok, that is a tease! That implies at or setting current rates...

Lightsaber

Delta350 wrote:

Do you think Breeze will serve any big markets like ATL, MIA, JFK or DFW from smaller airports?

I believe, like all airlines, they will. However, as they have maintenance at Islip, it would shock me if they didn't try there. That said, Breeze needs app downloads, that means entering big markets, including some big airports.

I personally cannot guess which airport order. I expect a majority of small airports with a few big ones. TPA, Orlando (either airport), and FLL or MIA are eventually required as all low frequency airlines eventually feed the cruise ships (which brings another discussion as to when...).

DFW is unlikely, but if Breeze can secure a gate, go for it. ATL is over-served due to the massive DL hub. I strain to find a viable unserved route East of the Mississippi. Breeze needs to find unserved routes to have yield.

I am incredibly curious if their launch pattern meets my expectations. I expect them to start with one or two bases with 4 to 7 spoke cities. I would expect service to be a mere 2x to 4x per week, so the route map will expand rapidly. I also would bet they switch routes rapidly and have many seasonal city pairs from launch. I also expect their bases to be small with only 2 to 5 aircraft during the first 18 months.

Routes should be started with the E190/195 and I hope to see routes sustained in the off season with the Embraers. However, their profit center will be the A220 routes.

While many routes and even destinations will fail, some will be gems. I expect to read about many small cities that I never would have guessed to become aircraft bases with a substantial network.

I also expect them to test markets by flying xxx-yyy-zzz where if there is xxx-zzz demand, they quickly throw a 2x/week flight on the route

They will discover some high demand city pairs as new service stimulates demand. On those routes, they will build up frequency to normal airline levels.

In effect, I expect a dynamic strategy such as Allegiant, but a more premium experience for app savy customers. Of course Neeleman will blend in Azul, JetBlue, Morris Air, and some Southwest characteristics.

The #1 advantage of Breeze is that it is being founded off modern software. I fully expect route planning, crew staffing, and aircraft maintenance to be done far more efficiently than before. In particular the A220 predictive maintenance.

But predicting cities? That will be dynamic.
Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

It looks like Breeze has one E190 leased from Azul (this is the one stored at MCN). The two at the MRO shop in Costa Rica (see photo upthread) are ex-Air Canada E190's, are also leased and should be ready for Breeze soon. Breeze is supposed to lease another 29 ex-Azul E190's as they launch and start to expand services.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Breeze-Airways

I wonder what the delivery schedule for the 60 A223's looks like?

I find it facinating Breeze is taking on so many Ejets when the resale value plumeted. I would love to know the terms.

They just might enter service with enough vaccinated to open back up travel. I cannot wait to fly on their A220s.

Lightsaber

No market for them under North American SCOPE clauses.

Waiting to start up may turn into the smartest move ever, frankly. Suddenly a ton of cheap airplanes, and even cheaper pilots now.
I can easily see them spinning up slowly, doing proving, building the brand with a couple of routes, building the back office infrastructure, until the now inevitable major drawdowns start, and then jumping in with both feet into the gap.

lightsaber wrote:

Delta350 wrote:

Do you think Breeze will serve any big markets like ATL, MIA, JFK or DFW from smaller airports?

I believe, like all airlines, they will. However, as they have maintenance at Islip, it would shock me if they didn't try there. That said, Breeze needs app downloads, that means entering big markets, including some big airports.

I personally cannot guess which airport order. I expect a majority of small airports with a few big ones. TPA, Orlando (either airport), and FLL or MIA are eventually required as all low frequency airlines eventually feed the cruise ships (which brings another discussion as to when...).

DFW is unlikely, but if Breeze can secure a gate, go for it. ATL is over-served due to the massive DL hub. I strain to find a viable unserved route East of the Mississippi. Breeze needs to find unserved routes to have yield.

I am incredibly curious if their launch pattern meets my expectations. I expect them to start with one or two bases with 4 to 7 spoke cities. I would expect service to be a mere 2x to 4x per week, so the route map will expand rapidly. I also would bet they switch routes rapidly and have many seasonal city pairs from launch. I also expect their bases to be small with only 2 to 5 aircraft during the first 18 months.

Routes should be started with the E190/195 and I hope to see routes sustained in the off season with the Embraers. However, their profit center will be the A220 routes.

While many routes and even destinations will fail, some will be gems. I expect to read about many small cities that I never would have guessed to become aircraft bases with a substantial network.

I also expect them to test markets by flying xxx-yyy-zzz where if there is xxx-zzz demand, they quickly throw a 2x/week flight on the route

They will discover some high demand city pairs as new service stimulates demand. On those routes, they will build up frequency to normal airline levels.

In effect, I expect a dynamic strategy such as Allegiant, but a more premium experience for app savy customers. Of course Neeleman will blend in Azul, JetBlue, Morris Air, and some Southwest characteristics.

The #1 advantage of Breeze is that it is being founded off modern software. I fully expect route planning, crew staffing, and aircraft maintenance to be done far more efficiently than before. In particular the A220 predictive maintenance.

But predicting cities? That will be dynamic.
Lightsaber

“I strain to find a viable unserved route East of the Mississippi. Breeze needs to find unserved routes to have yield”

I think that in a few months there are going to be a lot of routes underserved. At this point for management, the bankruptcies are all but inevitable, it is just a matter of surviving, and not being the first to go. The losses cannot be absorbed forever, and Uncle Sugar can’t keep writing checks forever to maintain the status quo. I have the feeling that late summer is going to be filing time time for at least one major, and perhaps a couple of regionals.

I think the pandemic will make breeze chances of actual survival much higher. Pre pandemic the legacies had money to crush you and make your life hard. Their only focus is on their own survival at this point. The pandemic and lack of business travel is alot worse for the legacies than breeze. For most people their last memories of flying are a doctor getting dragged down the isle on united , insane change fees and fees for everything . I see a large number of people people willing to try breeze when they are ready to fly.

Hoping for HVN and LYH.

Hopefully they eventually add some second airports out west such as AZA, PVU, and LGB

lightsaber wrote:

Delta350 wrote:

Do you think Breeze will serve any big markets like ATL, MIA, JFK or DFW from smaller airports?

I believe, like all airlines, they will. However, as they have maintenance at Islip, it would shock me if they didn't try there. That said, Breeze needs app downloads, that means entering big markets, including some big airports.

I personally cannot guess which airport order. I expect a majority of small airports with a few big ones. TPA, Orlando (either airport), and FLL or MIA are eventually required as all low frequency airlines eventually feed the cruise ships (which brings another discussion as to when...).

DFW is unlikely, but if Breeze can secure a gate, go for it. ATL is over-served due to the massive DL hub. I strain to find a viable unserved route East of the Mississippi. Breeze needs to find unserved routes to have yield.

I am incredibly curious if their launch pattern meets my expectations. I expect them to start with one or two bases with 4 to 7 spoke cities. I would expect service to be a mere 2x to 4x per week, so the route map will expand rapidly. I also would bet they switch routes rapidly and have many seasonal city pairs from launch. I also expect their bases to be small with only 2 to 5 aircraft during the first 18 months.

Routes should be started with the E190/195 and I hope to see routes sustained in the off season with the Embraers. However, their profit center will be the A220 routes.

While many routes and even destinations will fail, some will be gems. I expect to read about many small cities that I never would have guessed to become aircraft bases with a substantial network.

I also expect them to test markets by flying xxx-yyy-zzz where if there is xxx-zzz demand, they quickly throw a 2x/week flight on the route

They will discover some high demand city pairs as new service stimulates demand. On those routes, they will build up frequency to normal airline levels.

In effect, I expect a dynamic strategy such as Allegiant, but a more premium experience for app savy customers. Of course Neeleman will blend in Azul, JetBlue, Morris Air, and some Southwest characteristics.

The #1 advantage of Breeze is that it is being founded off modern software. I fully expect route planning, crew staffing, and aircraft maintenance to be done far more efficiently than before. In particular the A220 predictive maintenance.

But predicting cities? That will be dynamic.
Lightsaber

Since ISP is considered a likely candidate, what airports are similar to ISP in demographics? Seems to suggest being close to a large population area and reasonably we’ll served prior to airline consolidation is a plus. Thus a market that has demonstrated that it can be stimulated with the right service at the right price could be likely startup targets.

MKE is neither east nor west, but is underserved, and has a history of being quite well-stimulated by now-gone players.

I havnt heard any news on what cities Breeze will serve? In Ohio DAY was mentioned,Does TOL or CAK have chance with Breeze?

LotsaRunway wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Delta350 wrote:

Do you think Breeze will serve any big markets like ATL, MIA, JFK or DFW from smaller airports?

I believe, like all airlines, they will. However, as they have maintenance at Islip, it would shock me if they didn't try there. That said, Breeze needs app downloads, that means entering big markets, including some big airports.

I personally cannot guess which airport order. I expect a majority of small airports with a few big ones. TPA, Orlando (either airport), and FLL or MIA are eventually required as all low frequency airlines eventually feed the cruise ships (which brings another discussion as to when...).

DFW is unlikely, but if Breeze can secure a gate, go for it. ATL is over-served due to the massive DL hub. I strain to find a viable unserved route East of the Mississippi. Breeze needs to find unserved routes to have yield.

I am incredibly curious if their launch pattern meets my expectations. I expect them to start with one or two bases with 4 to 7 spoke cities. I would expect service to be a mere 2x to 4x per week, so the route map will expand rapidly. I also would bet they switch routes rapidly and have many seasonal city pairs from launch. I also expect their bases to be small with only 2 to 5 aircraft during the first 18 months.

Routes should be started with the E190/195 and I hope to see routes sustained in the off season with the Embraers. However, their profit center will be the A220 routes.

While many routes and even destinations will fail, some will be gems. I expect to read about many small cities that I never would have guessed to become aircraft bases with a substantial network.

I also expect them to test markets by flying xxx-yyy-zzz where if there is xxx-zzz demand, they quickly throw a 2x/week flight on the route

They will discover some high demand city pairs as new service stimulates demand. On those routes, they will build up frequency to normal airline levels.

In effect, I expect a dynamic strategy such as Allegiant, but a more premium experience for app savy customers. Of course Neeleman will blend in Azul, JetBlue, Morris Air, and some Southwest characteristics.

The #1 advantage of Breeze is that it is being founded off modern software. I fully expect route planning, crew staffing, and aircraft maintenance to be done far more efficiently than before. In particular the A220 predictive maintenance.

But predicting cities? That will be dynamic.
Lightsaber

Since ISP is considered a likely candidate, what airports are similar to ISP in demographics? Seems to suggest being close to a large population area and reasonably we’ll served prior to airline consolidation is a plus. Thus a market that has demonstrated that it can be stimulated with the right service at the right price could be likely startup targets.

LGB comes to mind.

Lightsaber[/quote]
Since ISP is considered a likely candidate, what airports are similar to ISP in demographics? Seems to suggest being close to a large population area and reasonably we’ll served prior to airline consolidation is a plus. Thus a market that has demonstrated that it can be stimulated with the right service at the right price could be likely startup targets.[/quote]

Sounds like Providence to me. They took the big haircut in WN's attempt to pollenate their BOS station only to have hammering competition from DL and B6 kick their butt at BOS. Southwest has withered in New England since then. Could all those seats and destinations be justified in a post-Covid world whenever we get there? Breeze may hopefully look at PVD as a Southern New England gateway at some point.

Any hope for MKE? Kind of a 2nd/3rd tier market due to horrific leakage to CHI. Definitely an underserved market.

KLMatSJC wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I believe, like all airlines, they will. However, as they have maintenance at Islip, it would shock me if they didn't try there. That said, Breeze needs app downloads, that means entering big markets, including some big airports.

I personally cannot guess which airport order. I expect a majority of small airports with a few big ones. TPA, Orlando (either airport), and FLL or MIA are eventually required as all low frequency airlines eventually feed the cruise ships (which brings another discussion as to when...).

DFW is unlikely, but if Breeze can secure a gate, go for it. ATL is over-served due to the massive DL hub. I strain to find a viable unserved route East of the Mississippi. Breeze needs to find unserved routes to have yield.

I am incredibly curious if their launch pattern meets my expectations. I expect them to start with one or two bases with 4 to 7 spoke cities. I would expect service to be a mere 2x to 4x per week, so the route map will expand rapidly. I also would bet they switch routes rapidly and have many seasonal city pairs from launch. I also expect their bases to be small with only 2 to 5 aircraft during the first 18 months.

Routes should be started with the E190/195 and I hope to see routes sustained in the off season with the Embraers. However, their profit center will be the A220 routes.

While many routes and even destinations will fail, some will be gems. I expect to read about many small cities that I never would have guessed to become aircraft bases with a substantial network.

I also expect them to test markets by flying xxx-yyy-zzz where if there is xxx-zzz demand, they quickly throw a 2x/week flight on the route

They will discover some high demand city pairs as new service stimulates demand. On those routes, they will build up frequency to normal airline levels.

In effect, I expect a dynamic strategy such as Allegiant, but a more premium experience for app savy customers. Of course Neeleman will blend in Azul, JetBlue, Morris Air, and some Southwest characteristics.

The #1 advantage of Breeze is that it is being founded off modern software. I fully expect route planning, crew staffing, and aircraft maintenance to be done far more efficiently than before. In particular the A220 predictive maintenance.

But predicting cities? That will be dynamic.
Lightsaber

Since ISP is considered a likely candidate, what airports are similar to ISP in demographics? Seems to suggest being close to a large population area and reasonably we’ll served prior to airline consolidation is a plus. Thus a market that has demonstrated that it can be stimulated with the right service at the right price could be likely startup targets.

LGB comes to mind.

LGB is the #1 airport I want served. Alas, it has poor yield. The low competition, low frequency model I speculate Breeze will adopt (a higher end Allegiant model), needs high yield when Breeze flies.

The E1 jets have a high variable cost per passenger, that requires better yield than LGB's historical.

One reason I am a proponent of East of the Mississippi is the limited range of the E1-195. I envision routes initially seeded with the E1s or opperated in low season with E1s (with other routes seasonal) and that means within a circle the E1s can be redistributed.

I'm sad to write this, but LGB is low on the list I would predict.

Lightsaber

So what airports from the southeast, northeast and west coast do you guys hope/see being served by Breeze?

LAXintl wrote:

In addition to the former Air Canada E190 registered N90NA, there is a second Breeze aircraft being prepared in Costa Rica



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eqdsq4bXIAI ... ame=medium

Thanks for sharing these! Fun to see..

Likely won’t Happen. But Atlanta service but not to katl

Delta350 wrote:

So what airports from the southeast, northeast and west coast do you guys hope/see being served by Breeze?

What would I hope to see KTTN (Trenton, NJ). Not sure about the E190 but the A220 has an advantage in that it can fly alot further from Trenton than Frontier's A320 Neo. It has a 6006ft runway and some obstructions that limit the A32N to about 1200NM, furthest destination is/was MSP and MSY. I think there are alot of people for whom Trenton is closer than Newark or Philadelphia that would fly Breeze in a heartbeat if they were to go the destination they needed, I know I would. There are about 2.5 million people in that category and if Breeze were to find a destination that was beyond Frontier's aircraft imposed perimeter that people wanted to go to I think they could make it work.

Currently their are a couple of things to hold them back
1. NIMBY's- Bucks County has a small group of vocal opposition to any expansion at the airport. In the past they have been just an annoyance with all their court cases thrown out. But recently they got an actual aviation lawyer paid for in part by the town where most of them live/work.
2. Terminal Size- Terminal is small but works for Frontier's 5-6 flights a day. Breeze could probably squeeze 1 daily flight into the terminal (probably best to be 2 destinations 2-3 days a week), A new terminal is in the works but with the NIMBY's and the pandemic, these plans are probably delayed
3. Parking- during busy times its tight with the use of an overflow lot that requires a shuttle.

Some pluses
1. I'm sure Mercer county (TTN Owner) would make them a hell of a deal to get them in the door. They are actively looking for other airlines
2. The new terminal and parking structure, when it opens, it will erase most of the bad things about flying out of Trenton
3. Breeze is looking for alternate airports, this is an alternate for a major metro area that as I said in 1 they could get tremendous terms on.

But as I said this is all hope. Is it a slam dunk? No Are there plenty of reasons why it might not work? Yes

LotsaRunway wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Delta350 wrote:

Do you think Breeze will serve any big markets like ATL, MIA, JFK or DFW from smaller airports?

I believe, like all airlines, they will. However, as they have maintenance at Islip, it would shock me if they didn't try there. That said, Breeze needs app downloads, that means entering big markets, including some big airports.

I personally cannot guess which airport order. I expect a majority of small airports with a few big ones. TPA, Orlando (either airport), and FLL or MIA are eventually required as all low frequency airlines eventually feed the cruise ships (which brings another discussion as to when...).

DFW is unlikely, but if Breeze can secure a gate, go for it. ATL is over-served due to the massive DL hub. I strain to find a viable unserved route East of the Mississippi. Breeze needs to find unserved routes to have yield.

I am incredibly curious if their launch pattern meets my expectations. I expect them to start with one or two bases with 4 to 7 spoke cities. I would expect service to be a mere 2x to 4x per week, so the route map will expand rapidly. I also would bet they switch routes rapidly and have many seasonal city pairs from launch. I also expect their bases to be small with only 2 to 5 aircraft during the first 18 months.

Routes should be started with the E190/195 and I hope to see routes sustained in the off season with the Embraers. However, their profit center will be the A220 routes.

While many routes and even destinations will fail, some will be gems. I expect to read about many small cities that I never would have guessed to become aircraft bases with a substantial network.

I also expect them to test markets by flying xxx-yyy-zzz where if there is xxx-zzz demand, they quickly throw a 2x/week flight on the route

They will discover some high demand city pairs as new service stimulates demand. On those routes, they will build up frequency to normal airline levels.

In effect, I expect a dynamic strategy such as Allegiant, but a more premium experience for app savy customers. Of course Neeleman will blend in Azul, JetBlue, Morris Air, and some Southwest characteristics.

The #1 advantage of Breeze is that it is being founded off modern software. I fully expect route planning, crew staffing, and aircraft maintenance to be done far more efficiently than before. In particular the A220 predictive maintenance.

But predicting cities? That will be dynamic.
Lightsaber

Since ISP is considered a likely candidate, what airports are similar to ISP in demographics? Seems to suggest being close to a large population area and reasonably we’ll served prior to airline consolidation is a plus. Thus a market that has demonstrated that it can be stimulated with the right service at the right price could be likely startup targets.

I think ISP is an anomaly to what their airports will be. TTN and LGB are even a stretch. @lightsaber rightly said already, the route selection will be dynamic.

I'm guessing more mid-size airport services such as JAX, PIT, MEM, TYS, RDU, GSO, ORF, RIC, BDL, MDT etc.

It will be underwhelming if Breeze is just another airline flying cities to established leisure airports

FLALEFTY wrote:

rj1385 wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

Here's an early-2020 article about Breeze that mentions their deal for the Azul E195's (sorry, I typed E190 in the earlier post in reference to the one Azul E195 already delivered). The E195's are to be subleased from Azul, although LOT has "first dibs" on them before Breeze even gets a chance to sublease them. I guess Breeze grabbed the ex-Air Canada E190's for a good, quick deal so Breeze could start preparing to launch services this Spring? The article also mentions that Breeze plans to operate the EJet's along side the BCS3's. I wonder if they are knocking on American's door seeing if they can score a good deal on AA's recently-retired E190 fleet?

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... 020-launch

Jetran's sixteen former AA E190s are heading to Australia.
https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/alliance-get-16-e190s/

Four left if they want/can get.

Wow! Just $65M (US) for 16 E190's! That's just slightly more than $4M per bird, which is a bargain. The low price Alliance paid to AA will buy a lot of fuel and cover the expensive engine overhauls for a while. Also, these airframes are only 13-15 years old and still have plenty of good service life left.

Meanwhile, Breeze firmed-up their BCS3 order for 60 birds back in January 2019 during the "Pre-COVID Era of Good Feeling". The plan was to have them start deliveries in April 2021. But I wonder if their delivery schedule will be moving to the right like so many other airlines have done with their open new aircraft orders?

One they are over 10 year old birds, two they didn’t pay AA anything for the birds. AA sold them to Jetran, Jetran sold them to Alliance

Delta350 wrote:

So what airports from the southeast, northeast and west coast do you guys hope/see being served by Breeze?

Hoping for BHM. Vastly underserved mid-major market (due to proximity to ATL). There is especially heavy demand for routes to RDU, BOS area, PIT, and to the west coast.

It is also one of the largest markets in the SE that is not already a major focus/hub for one of the big 4, and centrally located in the SE geographically.

Boiler905 wrote:

LotsaRunway wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I believe, like all airlines, they will. However, as they have maintenance at Islip, it would shock me if they didn't try there. That said, Breeze needs app downloads, that means entering big markets, including some big airports.

I personally cannot guess which airport order. I expect a majority of small airports with a few big ones. TPA, Orlando (either airport), and FLL or MIA are eventually required as all low frequency airlines eventually feed the cruise ships (which brings another discussion as to when...).

DFW is unlikely, but if Breeze can secure a gate, go for it. ATL is over-served due to the massive DL hub. I strain to find a viable unserved route East of the Mississippi. Breeze needs to find unserved routes to have yield.

I am incredibly curious if their launch pattern meets my expectations. I expect them to start with one or two bases with 4 to 7 spoke cities. I would expect service to be a mere 2x to 4x per week, so the route map will expand rapidly. I also would bet they switch routes rapidly and have many seasonal city pairs from launch. I also expect their bases to be small with only 2 to 5 aircraft during the first 18 months.

Routes should be started with the E190/195 and I hope to see routes sustained in the off season with the Embraers. However, their profit center will be the A220 routes.

While many routes and even destinations will fail, some will be gems. I expect to read about many small cities that I never would have guessed to become aircraft bases with a substantial network.

I also expect them to test markets by flying xxx-yyy-zzz where if there is xxx-zzz demand, they quickly throw a 2x/week flight on the route

They will discover some high demand city pairs as new service stimulates demand. On those routes, they will build up frequency to normal airline levels.

In effect, I expect a dynamic strategy such as Allegiant, but a more premium experience for app savy customers. Of course Neeleman will blend in Azul, JetBlue, Morris Air, and some Southwest characteristics.

The #1 advantage of Breeze is that it is being founded off modern software. I fully expect route planning, crew staffing, and aircraft maintenance to be done far more efficiently than before. In particular the A220 predictive maintenance.

But predicting cities? That will be dynamic.
Lightsaber

Since ISP is considered a likely candidate, what airports are similar to ISP in demographics? Seems to suggest being close to a large population area and reasonably we’ll served prior to airline consolidation is a plus. Thus a market that has demonstrated that it can be stimulated with the right service at the right price could be likely startup targets.

I think ISP is an anomaly to what their airports will be. TTN and LGB are even a stretch. @lightsaber rightly said already, the route selection will be dynamic.

I'm guessing more mid-size airport services such as JAX, PIT, MEM, TYS, RDU, GSO, ORF, RIC, BDL, MDT etc.

It will be underwhelming if Breeze is just another airline flying cities to established leisure airports

I can see MEM-RSW/MSY/SAT/RDU in the Embraers and MEM-SAN/OAK/SEA once the A223s arrive.

I remember Neeleman boasting about creating the needed PDEW for routes from existing next to nothing PDEW when he announced this.

I think something like XNA to TYS would do very well at 2x, I would be all over it. One of the factors, just one and not a primary driver, is the amount of families that carry season passes to Silver Dollar City in Branson. Those offer steep discounts to their corporate sister attractions in the Pigeon Forge area like Dollywood. There's the SEC connection, there's the visitation to the Great Smoky Mountains for summer and fall, which gets you close to the southern portion of the Blue Ridge Parkway. A lot of the families in the Ozarks trace back to East Tennessee as well.

I would live to see milk runs like this offering no plane change tags ons like this

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=Tys-xna-co ... =wls&DU=mi

I think many of you are wishing for pipe dream type routes. I don’t think it’ll be a complicated network for the first few years. I see it as something similar to MCO/RSW/MYR/VPS-XXX/YYY/ZZZ type routes. I think the network will be connecting smaller to mid-sized markets with little to no competition to popular vacation destinations in Florida, the Carolinas, as well as Texas and out west in California and maybe Arizona.

I don’t expect to see routes such as BHM-RDU, MEM-SEA, OAK-XNA, ROC-AUS, LAX-ICT type routes for several years. To me those routes don’t attract many daily or weekly passengers and are simply thin routes, and I don’t see them as money makers in today’s environment.

lightsaber wrote:

FLALEFTY wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I find it facinating Breeze is taking on so many Ejets when the resale value plumeted. I would love to know the terms.

They just might enter service with enough vaccinated to open back up travel. I cannot wait to fly on their A220s.

Lightsaber

Here's an early-2020 article about Breeze that mentions their deal for the Azul E195's (sorry, I typed E190 in the earlier post in reference to the one Azul E195 already delivered). The E195's are to be subleased from Azul, although LOT has "first dibs" on them before Breeze even gets a chance to sublease them. I guess Breeze grabbed the ex-Air Canada E190's for a good, quick deal so Breeze could start preparing to launch services this Spring? The article also mentions that Breeze plans to operate the EJet's along side the BCS3's. I wonder if they are knocking on American's door seeing if they can score a good deal on AA's recently-retired E190 fleet?

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... 020-launch

Which brings me back to, what are the terms?
https://leehamnews.com/2020/11/09/ponti ... ts-plunge/

If we look, only the once mighty 777-300ER dropped more in value at 15 years than the 37% drop in values of the E190LR in that above link.

So how much of that discount has Breeze realized? I would think they are looking at other aircraft due to current pricing.
But airlines are getting rid of E190/195s due to high engine overhaul costs and high fuel burn. JetBlue claims a 40% reduction per seat in fuel burn, a 30% reduction in costs:
https://guyanaaviation.com/2020/12/31/j ... -aircraft/

A 40% reduction in fuel burn per seat means the A220 burns less fuel per flight than the E190! JetBlue is supposed to have 140 seats per flight, so the A223 burns 84% of the fuel of the E190 (assuming JetBlue's claim is correct). That means the E1-190 and E1-195 are only suitable for low utilization due (high variable cost, low fixed cost where one only flies when a customer pays a premium), but only if the price is right to achieve low fixed costs.

I'm a huge fan of an upper scale Allegiant model which is how I perceive Breeze. Yes, they will do far more and the app, if done right, should cut costs and help produce revenue.

Lightsaber

Yes, this is very important.

Based on JetBlue's numbers, A220 has about the same CASM as A321CEO but with 60 fewer seats to fill and same ratio of Y/Y+.

E90 and E95's only advantage is the low (maybe close to 0) acquisition cost. And they'd only make sense for sub 3 hour segments.

With A220-300 around having about the same trip cost as E90 and not that much higher than E75, it makes me wonder how much longer the RJ model can last. The fuel burn would be comparable. Same number of pilots, 1 extra FA. Maybe the FA/pilot wage scale is a little higher, but there are 65 more seat to sell.

Hard for me to see how RJ can compete with A220s long term.

A220 and GTF will continue to get PiPs to have even better efficiency and fuel burn. They will continue to see maintenance flatten and go down as more operators are using them.

RJs are unlikely to see any upgrade due to scope clause. Over time, their maintenance will keep going up.

HNLSLCPDX wrote:

I think many of you are wishing for pipe dream type routes. I don’t think it’ll be a complicated network for the first few years. I see it as something similar to MCO/RSW/MYR/VPS-XXX/YYY/ZZZ type routes. I think the network will be connecting smaller to mid-sized markets with little to no competition to popular vacation destinations in Florida, the Carolinas, as well as Texas and out west in California and maybe Arizona.

I don’t expect to see routes such as BHM-RDU, MEM-SEA, OAK-XNA, ROC-AUS, LAX-ICT type routes for several years. To me those routes don’t attract many daily or weekly passengers and are simply thin routes, and I don’t see them as money makers in today’s environment.

Yet Allegiant wants to fly MEM-LAX 6x for the second straight summer if Covid allows this time.


But... this wasn't about daily service or business travelers. It was about Neeleman's stated goals when he announced his new airline.

Quite frankly I'm shocked Allegiant hasn't tried XNA-TYS considering their success on XNA-BNA/VPS

tphuang wrote:

Hard for me to see how RJ can compete with A220s long term.

A220 and GTF will continue to get PiPs to have even better efficiency and fuel burn. They will continue to see maintenance flatten and go down as more operators are using them.

RJs are unlikely to see any upgrade due to scope clause. Over time, their maintenance will keep going up.

I believe the Allegiant and Breeze business models are the beginning if the end for all CF34 powered aircraft; while it will be a very slow process, it will be a slow grind until they are not competitive.

I go off thread on Mitsubishi's jet; but I see few additional E175 sales (the ARJ-21 is a fuel hog, so not to be taken seriously in competitive markets). The SpaceJet has the weight, engines, and subsystems to be the replacement. The no change market will cost too much per passenger. Can Mitsubishi (will?) deliver? Unknown.

There is a reason I like the 2x to 4x weekly frequency concept, it works for me. In effect, Breeze will use E195s to compete, at a lower frequency, with E175s and the upgauge to the A223.

Leeham has the A223 carrying a passenger for the same fuel per mile:
https://leehamnews.com/2019/01/17/airbu ... rbus-says/

That means the difference is crew efficiency (larger planes are always more efficient, e.g. the same tug driver and two wing walkers), maintenance per passenger (again, larger planes win), dispatch support (front counter, per passenger, but the paperwork per domestic dispatch is pretty much the same per flight, so larger wins on cost per passenger).

I think an airline, like Breeze, setup with a highly automated back office will bring down the cost per flight that the A223 beats A320CEO cost per passenger.

I honestly believe Breeze will disrupt the market as much as JetBlue initially did. I know their growth hasn't been as impressive the last decade; but initially, JetBlue changed to the TCON market for the better. I see the same happening by offering a premium experience 2x to 4x weekly experience.

Note: I expect Breeze to have trunk routes at higher frequency. I just think they first must grow those trunk routes.

Lightsaber

WaywardMemphian wrote:

HNLSLCPDX wrote:

I think many of you are wishing for pipe dream type routes. I don’t think it’ll be a complicated network for the first few years. I see it as something similar to MCO/RSW/MYR/VPS-XXX/YYY/ZZZ type routes. I think the network will be connecting smaller to mid-sized markets with little to no competition to popular vacation destinations in Florida, the Carolinas, as well as Texas and out west in California and maybe Arizona.

I don’t expect to see routes such as BHM-RDU, MEM-SEA, OAK-XNA, ROC-AUS, LAX-ICT type routes for several years. To me those routes don’t attract many daily or weekly passengers and are simply thin routes, and I don’t see them as money makers in today’s environment.

Yet Allegiant wants to fly MEM-LAX 6x for the second straight summer if Covid allows this time.


But... this wasn't about daily service or business travelers. It was about Neeleman's stated goals when he announced his new airline.

Quite frankly I'm shocked Allegiant hasn't tried XNA-TYS considering their success on XNA-BNA/VPS

G4 is an established airline, I guarantee you when G4 was staring operations they would never do LAX-MEM. I can bet the same thing for Breeze. Breeze hasn’t even flown one single revenue flight. You’re comparing apples to oranges. Reread what I wrote and you’ll understand what I’m talking about.

Has anyone heard when they will announce their first operations and where they will go?

I am wondering the same thing. With an expected launch of Q1, you would think they will have to announce something fairly soon.

Don't know how official it is but someone noticed the following airports are following Breeze Airways on Twitter: Syracuse (Upstate NY), Manchester (NH), and Savannah (GA).
At SYR i can confirm we are working on opening a closed gate that could accomodate an E190/195 and A220.
At MHT and SAV they have a few unused gates.

SYRAVGEEK wrote:

Don't know how official it is but someone noticed the following airports are following Breeze Airways on Twitter: Syracuse (Upstate NY), Manchester (NH), and Savannah (GA).

Unfortunately it really doesn't mean much considering:

- SAV also follows Aer Lingus, Wizz Air, Copa Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, Air China, Air India, Qatar Airways, Swiss, Hawaiian, Malaysia Airlines, and more

- SYR also follows Korean Air, KLM, and more

- MHT also follows Korean Air, Virgin Atlantic, Lufthansa, Icelandair, and more.

But these airports are fairly sensible candidates for Breeze service.

Ishrion wrote:

SYRAVGEEK wrote:

Don't know how official it is but someone noticed the following airports are following Breeze Airways on Twitter: Syracuse (Upstate NY), Manchester (NH), and Savannah (GA).

Unfortunately it really doesn't mean much considering:

- SAV also follows Aer Lingus, Wizz Air, Copa Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, Air China, Air India, Qatar Airways, Swiss, Hawaiian, Malaysia Airlines, and more

- SYR also follows Korean Air, KLM, and more

- MHT also follows Korean Air, Virgin Atlantic, Lufthansa, Icelandair, and more.

But these airports are fairly sensible candidates for Breeze service.

Figures, I didn't think it was that official. But I do agree that they are candidates for Breeze!

SYRAVGEEK wrote:

Don't know how official it is but someone noticed the following airports are following Breeze Airways on Twitter: Syracuse (Upstate NY), Manchester (NH), and Savannah (GA).
At SYR i can confirm we are working on opening a closed gate that could accomodate an E190/195 and A220.
At MHT and SAV they have a few unused gates.

MHT would be exciting for me!

Speaking of who follows Breeze Airways, Worcester's Chamber of Commerce follows Breeze Airways on Twitter and they only follow Delta Airlines. Worcester (ORH) could be a possible destination.