tphuang wrote:

I don't see why SEA-BZE can't work. And yes, AS will get some connection through SEA to BZE.

But what about bAcKtRaCkInG? I'm being facetious, I completely agree.

jbs2886 wrote:

Belize is Latin America, not Caribbean. Its pretty close to CUN.

If we are getting into technicalities then I would actually say that Belize is Central America but not Latin America. English is the official language and Spanish and various Creole languages are secondary. They recognize Queen Elizabeth as head of state.

sfojvjets wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

Belize is Latin America, not Caribbean. Its pretty close to CUN.

If we are getting into technicalities then I would actually say that Belize is Central America but not Latin America. English is the official language and Spanish and various Creole languages are secondary. They recognize Queen Elizabeth as head of state.

Yeah, I previously edited it to Central America, haven't had enough coffee. Someone else made my point that if BZE is Caribbean, CUN would be (I don't think either are).

sfojvjets wrote:

Zidane wrote:

I'm a bit skeptical on SEABZE. This will be SEA's first Caribbean route, hoping it sticks.

I wouldn't write off SEA-BZE immediately. I think it should be fine at 2x weekly - probably Fri and Sat. But also by that metric, if you are counting BZE as Caribbean, wouldn't CUN count as Caribbean also?

It's definitely worth a try, Alaska needs to grow and leisure is king now. Also, I'm considering socioeconomic aspects; BZE has similar history, language, and political systems with fellow Caricom members. Like the Guyanas it is a mainland Caribbean country, whereas CUN isn't.

SEA-BZE success will depend on the departure time from SEA and the connections they can make vs the LAX-BZE flight. I wonder if they'll do something like they did for FLL/MCO when both markets were flown from LAX and SEA; Many times I would fly (even as recently as last month) FLL-LAX-SEA and notice a lot of folks on the LAX-SEA leg from FLL.

maverick4002 wrote:

Does anyone know AA / UA's precovid winter schedule from LAX?

That never happened.

UA LAX-BZE was forming part of the 2021 expansion routes out of LA to Central America: Belize, Honduras and Costa Rica. The airline also increased their weekly frequencies on both UA LAX-GUA and UA LAX-SAL.

January 09 2021: UA LAX-BZE 1x weekly, 738.
January 09, 2021: AA LAX-BZE 1x weekly, 321.

DL LAX-BZE 1x weekly was also in service, some years ago.

That's why I can't understand why AS LAX-BZE may operate almost daily into a very limited segment, in terms of the demand of passengers.

Regards.

dfw88 wrote:

SJOtoLIR wrote:

Having said that, why would AS sudddenly launch 5x weekly frequencies from LA, if both UA and AA are currently working on a weekly basis ?

AA flies to BZE twice daily, once from MIA and once from DFW. On top of that they've scheduled some sub-daily CLT and LAX turns (or at least they have in the past). UA flies twice daily from IAH plus once or twice weekly from a number of other hubs. Those additional flights are mostly seasonal/Covid flying (hard to keep it all straight). DL flies daily from ATL. I'm not sure if they've scheduled any extra trips. AS coming in at 5x weekly would not be much compared to what's already there.

I would elaborate my earlier point better.
The United States is by far the primary market for Belize from abroad and basically for tourism.
AA MIA-BZE, AA DFW-BZE, UA IAH-BZE and DL ATL-BZE are consolidated routes operating daily there.
However, Belize also sustains other smaller US destinations, in terms of the demand of passengers: CLT, DEN, ORD, EWR and other seasonal routes. Both SEA and LAX seem to fit into the last category.
We might take into account the daily services offered for their competitors: [UA SEA-IAH + UA IAH-BZE] or [AA SEA-DFW + AA DFW-BZE] and so on.


Regards.

jbs2886 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

I never stated LAX didn't make sense, only indicating that you can't rule out SEA. From the poster's original comment, it appears to be both, which does make sense IMO.

Flying like LAX-SEA-BZE makes no sense when SEA-LAX-BZE does

SMH, read my posts. I said it makes sense for much of the PNW that is already backtracking through SEA for most connections. I also said I think LAX/SEA-BZE makes sense to capture AS's full market on the west coast. I never said LAX-SEA-BZE makes sense.

Also, I'll state again, the obsession that people won't backtrack is false. The SEA hub relies almost entirely on backtracking, as do many other hubs.

Since we don't know the schedules of this new flight, but history shows us that LAX is their only gateway to Central America so far. The market is largest from LAX than from SEA, PDX & ANC combined I am sure of this just based on POS for the flights to LIR & SJO. BZE will be the same exact thing, the early 5 something AM flight to LAX currently makes the connection & one gets back to SEA after midnight on the return.

Expect a very similar schedule for BZE. While I am sure AS does want to connect SEA with many destinations, I can assure you that a n/s from SEA won't happen at the onset. If the market matures & there is an increased demand, I could see 2-3 x weekly n/s from SEA on the MAX. Just the cargo opportunities are from LA & as AS moves in conservative ways, I'd be very, very surprised they change that now.

RWA380 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

Flying like LAX-SEA-BZE makes no sense when SEA-LAX-BZE does

SMH, read my posts. I said it makes sense for much of the PNW that is already backtracking through SEA for most connections. I also said I think LAX/SEA-BZE makes sense to capture AS's full market on the west coast. I never said LAX-SEA-BZE makes sense.

Also, I'll state again, the obsession that people won't backtrack is false. The SEA hub relies almost entirely on backtracking, as do many other hubs.

Since we don't know the schedules of this new flight, but history shows us that LAX is their only gateway to Central America so far. The market is largest from LAX than from SEA, PDX & ANC combined I am sure of this just based on POS for the flights to LIR & SJO. BZE will be the same exact thing, the early 5 something AM flight to LAX currently makes the connection & one gets back to SEA after midnight on the return.

Expect a very similar schedule for BZE. While I am sure AS does want to connect SEA with many destinations, I can assure you that a n/s from SEA won't happen at the onset. If the market matures & there is an increased demand, I could see 2-3 x weekly n/s from SEA on the MAX. Just the cargo opportunities are from LA & as AS moves in conservative ways, I'd be very, very surprised they change that now.

So the multiple posters with knowledge of SEA (and LAX) flights, as well as the confirmation on Alaska's own Instagram (link above), are all wrong?

RWA380 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

Flying like LAX-SEA-BZE makes no sense when SEA-LAX-BZE does

SMH, read my posts. I said it makes sense for much of the PNW that is already backtracking through SEA for most connections. I also said I think LAX/SEA-BZE makes sense to capture AS's full market on the west coast. I never said LAX-SEA-BZE makes sense.

Also, I'll state again, the obsession that people won't backtrack is false. The SEA hub relies almost entirely on backtracking, as do many other hubs.

Since we don't know the schedules of this new flight, but history shows us that LAX is their only gateway to Central America so far. The market is largest from LAX than from SEA, PDX & ANC combined I am sure of this just based on POS for the flights to LIR & SJO. BZE will be the same exact thing, the early 5 something AM flight to LAX currently makes the connection & one gets back to SEA after midnight on the return.

Expect a very similar schedule for BZE. While I am sure AS does want to connect SEA with many destinations, I can assure you that a n/s from SEA won't happen at the onset. If the market matures & there is an increased demand, I could see 2-3 x weekly n/s from SEA on the MAX. Just the cargo opportunities are from LA & as AS moves in conservative ways, I'd be very, very surprised they change that now.

I mean, anything could change but AS has already said they’re flying 5x weekly from LAX and 2x weekly from SEA. It seems they’ve done their research and that’s their plan.

I don't know what we are debating. AS has confirmed LAX BZE and SEA BZE on its Facebook and Instagram accounts. only thing left for them to confirm are schedules and start dates.

ASFlyer wrote:

RWA380 wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

SMH, read my posts. I said it makes sense for much of the PNW that is already backtracking through SEA for most connections. I also said I think LAX/SEA-BZE makes sense to capture AS's full market on the west coast. I never said LAX-SEA-BZE makes sense.

Also, I'll state again, the obsession that people won't backtrack is false. The SEA hub relies almost entirely on backtracking, as do many other hubs.

Since we don't know the schedules of this new flight, but history shows us that LAX is their only gateway to Central America so far. The market is largest from LAX than from SEA, PDX & ANC combined I am sure of this just based on POS for the flights to LIR & SJO. BZE will be the same exact thing, the early 5 something AM flight to LAX currently makes the connection & one gets back to SEA after midnight on the return.

Expect a very similar schedule for BZE. While I am sure AS does want to connect SEA with many destinations, I can assure you that a n/s from SEA won't happen at the onset. If the market matures & there is an increased demand, I could see 2-3 x weekly n/s from SEA on the MAX. Just the cargo opportunities are from LA & as AS moves in conservative ways, I'd be very, very surprised they change that now.

I mean, anything could change but AS has already said they’re flying 5x weekly from LAX and 2x weekly from SEA. It seems they’ve done their research and that’s their plan.

Nah, I wrote it out & delayed posting my response, I was wrong in my guess, but nothing above my post has any credible source posted, so my assumption was it wasn't official. my bad, no biggie.

tphuang wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

I'd disagree, but you do have to consider the baseline changed for airlines - it isn't the 2019 fleet or staffing levels. Let's face it, they will now have more aircraft in 2022, 2023, and 2024 than they planned even with the Airbus retirements.

What's there to disagree? Numbers speak for themselves. They will not have more aircraft than end of 2019 until end of 2023.

I'd be really surprised if those A321NEOs do not leave their fleet the moment that leasing market picks up again. Probably to US based carrier, since most of rest of the world is taking a lot longer to recover.

What's the over and under on the A321NEOs ending up at AA by 2024?

It's extremely costly to keep a second fleet type of just 10 aircraft. Doesn't make sense at all.

WkndWanderer wrote:

They will have 94 combined purchased and leased MAX’s which is 20+ more mainline planes than the Airbus fleet ever was at its maximum, and 30+ more if they keep the NEO’s through the end of their leases. The only other mainline planes Alaska has that could even be retirement candidates are the -700’s and some of the non-ER 900’s.

Please look at what's posted in 10-K and what they said in their website and what they had in their quarterly report. I'm not making any of this up. This not rocket science. Those A321NEOs aren't sticking around much longer after the A320s leave.

Not entirely sure of what the timeframe is for Alaska to get all 94 of the MAX's. The report you reference plans for 56 in service in the next 2.5 years by the time the small Bus's are completely gone at the end of 2023, so 33 of the additional 38 MAX's are going to take AS's fleet beyond what the NG/Airbus combined fleet ever was unless Alaska starts retiring the -700's and non-ER 900's after 2023. The -700 is used as the subfleet of choice in the state of Alaska now and AS kept the last two subfleets used for that until the frames were ~28, so the -700's will be hitting that in the next 7-8 years if they stick to a similar lifespan.

usxguy wrote:

SEA-BZE success will depend on the departure time from SEA and the connections they can make vs the LAX-BZE flight. I wonder if they'll do something like they did for FLL/MCO when both markets were flown from LAX and SEA; Many times I would fly (even as recently as last month) FLL-LAX-SEA and notice a lot of folks on the LAX-SEA leg from FLL.

Conversely, I've seen multiple people flying routes like FLL-SEA-SAN. "Backtracking" isn't really a factor when the ticket price is low enough.

RWA380 wrote:

ASFlyer wrote:

RWA380 wrote:

Since we don't know the schedules of this new flight, but history shows us that LAX is their only gateway to Central America so far. The market is largest from LAX than from SEA, PDX & ANC combined I am sure of this just based on POS for the flights to LIR & SJO. BZE will be the same exact thing, the early 5 something AM flight to LAX currently makes the connection & one gets back to SEA after midnight on the return.

Expect a very similar schedule for BZE. While I am sure AS does want to connect SEA with many destinations, I can assure you that a n/s from SEA won't happen at the onset. If the market matures & there is an increased demand, I could see 2-3 x weekly n/s from SEA on the MAX. Just the cargo opportunities are from LA & as AS moves in conservative ways, I'd be very, very surprised they change that now.

I mean, anything could change but AS has already said they’re flying 5x weekly from LAX and 2x weekly from SEA. It seems they’ve done their research and that’s their plan.

Nah, I wrote it out & delayed posting my response, I was wrong in my guess, but nothing above my post has any credible source posted, so my assumption was it wasn't official. my bad, no biggie.

Actually the link to Alaska’s post stating LAX and SEA was above your post and certainly Alaska is credible, even if it’s not a PR.

maps4ltd wrote:

usxguy wrote:

SEA-BZE success will depend on the departure time from SEA and the connections they can make vs the LAX-BZE flight. I wonder if they'll do something like they did for FLL/MCO when both markets were flown from LAX and SEA; Many times I would fly (even as recently as last month) FLL-LAX-SEA and notice a lot of folks on the LAX-SEA leg from FLL.

Conversely, I've seen multiple people flying routes like FLL-SEA-SAN. "Backtracking" isn't really a factor when the ticket price is low enough.

I have also seen people fly DCA-SEA-OAK or MCO-SEA-SBP. I'm sure there are a lot of passengers do something like the DCA-SEA-BOI or EWR-SEA-GEG.

I've done SEA-SAN-MCO a few times. It's a great opportunity to stack your miles!

United and previously Continental have flown Houston-IAH to BZE daily for decades. TACA flew IAH to BZE daily also in the late 90s and early 00s. TACA also flew MSY to BZE before that for a while. AA has flown MIA BZE for decades also. IIRC USAir from Charlotte and Delta from ATL were the first to try and enter the Houston/Miami duopoly to BZE in the mid 00s.

Then things really took off with many of. The seasonal and weekend flights. Many Canadians do Belize so CO then UA and AA carry a lot to BZE.

Southwest was also flying Houston-HOU to BZE IIRC but covid stopped it for a bit not sure if/when it has restarted yet. I know they have restarted CZM and CUN.

TACA pulled out of the BZE US market as all the other entrants started up IIRC. I also recall maybe Westjet talking BZE at one point. But I have had to much scotch since I lived there so could be fuzzy on the deets LOL.

FlyingSicilian wrote:

Southwest was also flying Houston-HOU to BZE but covid stopped it for a bit not sure if/when it has restarted yet. I know they have restarted CZM and CUN.

WN had recently said in its April 22, 2021 earnings call that it plans on resuming service out of BZE.

FlyingSicilian wrote:

TACA pulled out of the BZE US market as all the other entrants started up IIRC.

GRUPO TACA also flew SAL-BZE-IAH on a daily basis with 320 equipment.
This route was axed due to the merger TA-AV in 2013 or so, resulting on AV SAL-IAH and AV SAL-BZE later.

Regards.

FlyingSicilian wrote:

United and previously Continental have flown Houston-IAH to BZE daily for decades. TACA flew IAH to BZE daily also in the late 90s and early 00s. TACA also flew MSY to BZE before that for a while. AA has flown MIA BZE for decades also. IIRC USAir from Charlotte and Delta from ATL were the first to try and enter the Houston/Miami duopoly to BZE in the mid 00s.

Then things really took off with many of. The seasonal and weekend flights. Many Canadians do Belize so CO then UA and AA carry a lot to BZE.

Southwest was also flying Houston-HOU to BZE IIRC but covid stopped it for a bit not sure if/when it has restarted yet. I know they have restarted CZM and CUN.

TACA pulled out of the BZE US market as all the other entrants started up IIRC. I also recall maybe Westjet talking BZE at one point. But I have had to much scotch since I lived there so could be fuzzy on the deets LOL.

I just looked it up. BZE has service from the following
UA - IAH, EWR, DEN, LAX, ORD
DL - ATL, MSP (new)
AA - MIA, DFW, CLT, LAX
WS - YYZ, YYC (suspended due to covid)
AC - YYZ (suspended due to covid)
SY - MSP
WN - HOU, FLL, DEN (suspended due to covid)
CM- PTY
9N - CUN, RTB
AV - SAL

It also had AM from MEX but lost that during the MAX debacle IIRC.

wedgetail737 wrote:

maps4ltd wrote:

usxguy wrote:

SEA-BZE success will depend on the departure time from SEA and the connections they can make vs the LAX-BZE flight. I wonder if they'll do something like they did for FLL/MCO when both markets were flown from LAX and SEA; Many times I would fly (even as recently as last month) FLL-LAX-SEA and notice a lot of folks on the LAX-SEA leg from FLL.

Conversely, I've seen multiple people flying routes like FLL-SEA-SAN. "Backtracking" isn't really a factor when the ticket price is low enough.

I have also seen people fly DCA-SEA-OAK or MCO-SEA-SBP. I'm sure there are a lot of passengers do something like the DCA-SEA-BOI or EWR-SEA-GEG.

I've done SEA-SAN-MCO a few times. It's a great opportunity to stack your miles!

Yeah, SEA isn't terribly out of the way for some of these things. I talked to someone doing ORD-SEA-FAT a few months back.

Of course, on my STL Alaska flights, I've seen TONS of pax doing STL-SEA-ANC. I assume Alaska connections are a big draw.

maps4ltd wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

maps4ltd wrote:

Conversely, I've seen multiple people flying routes like FLL-SEA-SAN. "Backtracking" isn't really a factor when the ticket price is low enough.

I have also seen people fly DCA-SEA-OAK or MCO-SEA-SBP. I'm sure there are a lot of passengers do something like the DCA-SEA-BOI or EWR-SEA-GEG.

I've done SEA-SAN-MCO a few times. It's a great opportunity to stack your miles!

Yeah, SEA isn't terribly out of the way for some of these things. I talked to someone doing ORD-SEA-FAT a few months back.

Of course, on my STL Alaska flights, I've seen TONS of pax doing STL-SEA-ANC. I assume Alaska connections are a big draw.

If it’s like Costa Rica the non stop ANCLAX flight should hit it

Alaska belize flights on sale now https://twitter.com/IshrionA/status/139 ... 67427?s=20

LAX - belize 4x weekly, SEA - belize 2x weekly starting November 19