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LAXintl
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Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue May 18, 2021 2:39 pm

While I have been hesitant to post this information as the data continues to be very fluid, after multiple requests, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

The listing shows estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates also based on oldest to newest airframes for common models.

Pax
A220-100 - $23.6 - 33.0M, $150-230,000
A220-300 - $27.9 - 37.3M, $170-260,000
A319 – $3.6 - 28.4M, $50-200,000
A320 – $2.5 - 33.5M, $40-220,000
A320NEO - $30.7 - 48.0M, $200-310,000
A321 – $7.4 - 42.1M, $70-280,000
A321NEO - $41.5 - 56.0M, $240-360,000
A330-200 – $8.0 - 51.0M, $90-440,000
A330-300 - $6.0 - 58.0M, $90-480,000
A330-900 - $90.5 - 110.0M, $550-820,000
A350-900 - $77.0 - 149.0M, $450-1,030,000
A380 - $18.6 - 94.0M, $170-730,000
B737-700 - $3.2 - 20.1M, $45-210,000
B737-800 - $6.8 - 35.5M, $70-240,000
B737-900ER - $13.2 - 36.0M, $110-240,000
B737MAX-8 - $33.7 -45.8M, $200,000-290,000
B737MAX-9 - $36.5 -47.0M, $220,000-300,000
B767-300ER – $4.3 – 20.0M, $40-220,000
B777-300ER – $26.8 – 132.5M, $240-1,020,000
B787-8 - $47.8 - 100.5M, $290-650,000
B787-9 - $72.5 - 140.0M, $410-940,000
B787-10 - $104.0 - 138.5M, $610-1,030,000
CRJ700 – $4.3 – 14.5M, $60-140,000
CRJ900 - $5.4 – 20.5M, $60-170,000
Q400 – $3.0 – 21.0M, $50-160,000
EMB175 – $6.3 – 25.0M, $70-190,000
EMB190 – $7.5 – 25.5M, $80-200,000
EMB190E2 - $23.3 - 29.0M, $150-220,000
ATR-72 – $2.8 – 21.2M, $50-170,000

Freighter
A330F – $40.0 - 60.5M, $400-600,000
B744F – $18.0 - 34.0M, $240-430,000
B748F – $75.5 - 170.0M, $680-1,050,000
B763F – $21.5 - 70.0M, $220-630,000
B777F – $74.0 - 145.0M, $650-1,150,000

The information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuations and is current as of March 2021

Sources: IBA/ISTAT


For reference and comparison, the valuations prior to COVID can be found in this previous post >> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1440991

As stated valuation are quite dynamic these days and can change based on the news of the week whether it be COVID and industry outlook, or news of an airline grounding a certain fleet type.
 
jholio
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue May 18, 2021 5:55 pm

Thanks for posting! Always one of my favorite threads to read. Do you know if prices are dynamic now because there are relatively few transactions compared to a pre-COVID period, is it uncertainty, or something else?
 
jbs2886
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue May 18, 2021 6:02 pm

The bottom fell out on the A350 and 787. Interesting, too, that the 748F and 777F both saw decreases at the bottom and top while the other cargo aircraft were typically higher.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue May 18, 2021 8:31 pm

Look at the A380

2020
A380 - $66.0 - 220.0M, $520-1,800,000


More than a 50% drop :eek:

2021
A380 - $18.6 - 94.0M, $170-730,000


:tombstone:
 
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sunking737
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 1:08 am

At $7.0 million I see why SCX bought 5 of their leased 737-800..
 
EBT
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 3:45 am

jholio wrote:
Thanks for posting! Always one of my favorite threads to read. Do you know if prices are dynamic now because there are relatively few transactions compared to a pre-COVID period, is it uncertainty, or something else?


Like any market, there are any number of factors. On some types, the pricing may reflect transactions like sale and leasebacks where the airline is selling their assets to raise the cash they need now, which makes it slightly different from a straight lease on a jet that may have come off one carrier and going to another. There are likely fewer of the latter for obvious reasons, but some transactions are still occurring. Transaction volumes are likely much lower than pre-COVID, and there is still little rationality in the market, which means that it could fall further, or it could rebound - but there are just too many variables around passenger demand, capacity requirements etc to make an informed call on that.

In the leasing world, pricing and lease rates are always viewed two ways - market and base. Market rates are what we have here, and will vary according to the supply and demand factors. And they can vary wildly, as things can change quickly in the industry. Base values and rates are more modelled around the inherent value of the aircraft themselves, which although theoretical only, is what it would be worth in a "balanced" market. When base and market values are mismatched, then you start to see some wild swings either way.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 1:33 pm

I have taken the liberty to post current (left) and prior (right) values from the summer 2020 Aircraft Values, and lease pricing thread. I put in bold if the price seems to have gone up (please read the OP's caveats on pricing).
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1449067

They "n/a" I added as many new types were not on the Summer 2020 pricing list.

LAXintl wrote:


Pax
A220-100 - $23.6 - 33.0M, $150-230,000 25.8 - R34.0M, $180-255,000
A220-300 - $27.9 - 37.3M, $170-260,000 $31.4 - 39.8M, $195-295,000
A319 – $3.6 - 28.4M, $50-200,000 $7.0 - 35.7M, $60-280,000
A320 – $2.5 - 33.5M, $40-220,000 $3.0 - 43.7M, $45-310,000
A320NEO - $30.7 - 48.0M, $200-310,000 $39.6 - 49.0M, $300-380,000
A321 – $7.4 - 42.1M, $70-280,000 $10.9 - 51.2M, $130-370,000
A321NEO - $41.5 - 56.0M, $240-360,000 $48.0 - 58.5M, $320-410,000
A330-200 – $8.0 - 51.0M, $90-440,000 $12.7 - 70.0M, $125-600,000
A330-300 - $6.0 - 58.0M, $90-480,000 $8.5 - 85.5M, $100-660,000
A330-900 - $90.5 - 110.0M, $550-820,000 n/a
A350-900 - $77.0 - 149.0M, $450-1,030,000 $101.0 - 155.0M, $650-1,150,000
A380 - $18.6 - 94.0M, $170-730,000 $50.0 - 213.0M, $340-1,920,000
B737-700 - $3.2 - 20.1M, $45-210,000 $7.5 - 33.5M, $95-280,000
B737-800 - $6.8 - 35.5M, $70-240,000 $11.0 - 43.5M, $105-320,000
B737-900ER - $13.2 - 36.0M, $110-240,000 $18.7 - 45.5M, $190-355,000
B737MAX-8 - $33.7 -45.8M, $200,000-290,000 $46.5 -51.0M, $220,000-375,000
B737MAX-9 - $36.5 -47.0M, $220,000-300,000 n/a
B767-300ER – $4.3 – 20.0M, $40-220,000 $7.0 – 33.0M, $95-330,000
B777-300ER – $26.8 – 132.5M, $240-1,020,000 $42.0 – 149.0M, $300-1,250,000
B787-8 - $47.8 - 100.5M, $290-650,000 $66.0 - 119.0M, $530-950,000
B787-9 - $72.5 - 140.0M, $410-940,000 $95.0 - 146.0, $705-1,110,000
B787-10 - $104.0 - 138.5M, $610-1,030,000 n/a
CRJ700 – $4.3 – 14.5M, $60-140,000 $5.0 – 19.0M, $70-175,000
CRJ900 - $5.4 – 20.5M, $60-170,000 $6.0 – 23.5M, $80-200,000
Q400 – $3.0 – 21.0M, $50-160,000 $4.9 – 19.9M, $68-185,000
EMB175 – $6.3 – 25.0M, $70-190,000 $9.0 – 27.0M, $100-215,000
EMB190 – $7.5 – 25.5M, $80-200,000 $9.9 – 30.5M, $110-205,000
EMB190E2 - $23.3 - 29.0M, $150-220,000 n/a
ATR-72 – $2.8 – 21.2M, $50-170,000 $3.4 – 21.3M, $60-185,000


As always, incredible information.
First, the 777-200ER dropped off the list. I assume they are only going to scrappers and the engine value plummeted which kills the end of life scrap value.
I noticed the sharp drop in A319 and 73G pricing to $3.6 and $3.2 from $7.0 and $7.5 respectively; this is roughly a 50% drop! :faint: I am of the opinion this is the scrap price for the older examples of these types now. The E-jets maintained far better value in the small category, yet they are really cheap for used E-175/190 today. I speculate the sharper drop in the E-175 vs. E-190, at the low end, is because non-US operators are not going to buy the E175 cheap when the E190 is just a wee bit more expensive with much better capabilities.

The A321 dropping in value over 20% makes them far better conversion candidates. The 738 dropped a similar amount. I speculate the conversion market is maintaining pricing on these models, which removes pressure to convert smaller examples and thus the A319/73G price plummet.

Widebody values were hit hard. I suspect financing of A388s is a challenge and instead of a high fraction of purchase price being financed, it is instead a much lower amount (probably at elevated interest rates).

Until passenger traffic increases (near the end of the last thread I posted the declines in traffic, which are brutal), we will not see a stabilization in pricing.

Thanks for the great information!
Lightsaber
 
ScottB
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 2:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I suspect financing of A388s is a challenge and instead of a high fraction of purchase price being financed, it is instead a much lower amount (probably at elevated interest rates).


I think the challenge for A388s goes far deeper than financing. There's basically zero demand for used A380s. Even carriers who own their examples don't have clear plans for when they will return them to active use, if they will even do so at all.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 5:53 pm

I am mostly interested in the narrowbody market and how new types are impacting the resale values of older narrowbodies. With the engines now mature, they have reliability and fuel burn. See Pratt thread for further discussion:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1460949

ScottB wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I suspect financing of A388s is a challenge and instead of a high fraction of purchase price being financed, it is instead a much lower amount (probably at elevated interest rates).


I think the challenge for A388s goes far deeper than financing. There's basically zero demand for used A380s. Even carriers who own their examples don't have clear plans for when they will return them to active use, if they will even do so at all.

True. However the final deliveries should still be for over $200 million each. Airbus cannot afford to not deliver built aircraft.

So the top of the A388 was whacked by no deliveries and reluctance to take A388 as collateral.
Lightsaber
 
MDGLongBeach
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 8:44 pm

LAXintl wrote:
While I have been hesitant to post this information as the data continues to be very fluid, after multiple requests, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

The listing shows estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates also based on oldest to newest airframes for common models.

Pax
A220-100 - $23.6 - 33.0M, $150-230,000
A220-300 - $27.9 - 37.3M, $170-260,000
A319 – $3.6 - 28.4M, $50-200,000
A320 – $2.5 - 33.5M, $40-220,000
A320NEO - $30.7 - 48.0M, $200-310,000
A321 – $7.4 - 42.1M, $70-280,000
A321NEO - $41.5 - 56.0M, $240-360,000
A330-200 – $8.0 - 51.0M, $90-440,000
A330-300 - $6.0 - 58.0M, $90-480,000
A330-900 - $90.5 - 110.0M, $550-820,000
A350-900 - $77.0 - 149.0M, $450-1,030,000
A380 - $18.6 - 94.0M, $170-730,000
B737-700 - $3.2 - 20.1M, $45-210,000
B737-800 - $6.8 - 35.5M, $70-240,000
B737-900ER - $13.2 - 36.0M, $110-240,000
B737MAX-8 - $33.7 -45.8M, $200,000-290,000
B737MAX-9 - $36.5 -47.0M, $220,000-300,000
B767-300ER – $4.3 – 20.0M, $40-220,000
B777-300ER – $26.8 – 132.5M, $240-1,020,000
B787-8 - $47.8 - 100.5M, $290-650,000
B787-9 - $72.5 - 140.0M, $410-940,000
B787-10 - $104.0 - 138.5M, $610-1,030,000
CRJ700 – $4.3 – 14.5M, $60-140,000
CRJ900 - $5.4 – 20.5M, $60-170,000
Q400 – $3.0 – 21.0M, $50-160,000
EMB175 – $6.3 – 25.0M, $70-190,000
EMB190 – $7.5 – 25.5M, $80-200,000
EMB190E2 - $23.3 - 29.0M, $150-220,000
ATR-72 – $2.8 – 21.2M, $50-170,000

Freighter
A330F – $40.0 - 60.5M, $400-600,000
B744F – $18.0 - 34.0M, $240-430,000
B748F – $75.5 - 170.0M, $680-1,050,000
B763F – $21.5 - 70.0M, $220-630,000
B777F – $74.0 - 145.0M, $650-1,150,000

The information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuations and is current as of March 2021

Sources: IBA/ISTAT


For reference and comparison, the valuations prior to COVID can be found in this previous post >> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1440991

As stated valuation are quite dynamic these days and can change based on the news of the week whether it be COVID and industry outlook, or news of an airline grounding a certain fleet type.


Great information! Thanks for sharing. Though one thing, I know they're pretty irrelevant now, but what's the value of MD80 family aircraft now that all major US airlines have retired them? Just curious.

Thanks!
 
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zeke
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 10:30 pm

ScottB wrote:
I think the challenge for A388s goes far deeper than financing. There's basically zero demand for used A380s. Even carriers who own their examples don't have clear plans for when they will return them to active use, if they will even do so at all.


Zero demand for any large passenger aircraft at the moment. Even the low end of the A220-300 is greater than the 777-300ER.
 
astuteman
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 11:33 pm

LAXintl wrote:
While I have been hesitant to post this information as the data continues to be very fluid, after multiple requests, here is an update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

The listing shows estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates also based on oldest to newest airframes for common models.

Pax
A220-100 - $23.6 - 33.0M, $150-230,000
A220-300 - $27.9 - 37.3M, $170-260,000
A319 – $3.6 - 28.4M, $50-200,000
A320 – $2.5 - 33.5M, $40-220,000
A320NEO - $30.7 - 48.0M, $200-310,000
A321 – $7.4 - 42.1M, $70-280,000
A321NEO - $41.5 - 56.0M, $240-360,000
A330-200 – $8.0 - 51.0M, $90-440,000
A330-300 - $6.0 - 58.0M, $90-480,000
A330-900 - $90.5 - 110.0M, $550-820,000
A350-900 - $77.0 - 149.0M, $450-1,030,000
A380 - $18.6 - 94.0M, $170-730,000
B737-700 - $3.2 - 20.1M, $45-210,000
B737-800 - $6.8 - 35.5M, $70-240,000
B737-900ER - $13.2 - 36.0M, $110-240,000
B737MAX-8 - $33.7 -45.8M, $200,000-290,000
B737MAX-9 - $36.5 -47.0M, $220,000-300,000
B767-300ER – $4.3 – 20.0M, $40-220,000
B777-300ER – $26.8 – 132.5M, $240-1,020,000
B787-8 - $47.8 - 100.5M, $290-650,000
B787-9 - $72.5 - 140.0M, $410-940,000
B787-10 - $104.0 - 138.5M, $610-1,030,000
CRJ700 – $4.3 – 14.5M, $60-140,000
CRJ900 - $5.4 – 20.5M, $60-170,000
Q400 – $3.0 – 21.0M, $50-160,000
EMB175 – $6.3 – 25.0M, $70-190,000
EMB190 – $7.5 – 25.5M, $80-200,000
EMB190E2 - $23.3 - 29.0M, $150-220,000
ATR-72 – $2.8 – 21.2M, $50-170,000

Freighter
A330F – $40.0 - 60.5M, $400-600,000
B744F – $18.0 - 34.0M, $240-430,000
B748F – $75.5 - 170.0M, $680-1,050,000
B763F – $21.5 - 70.0M, $220-630,000
B777F – $74.0 - 145.0M, $650-1,150,000

The information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuations and is current as of March 2021

Sources: IBA/ISTAT


For reference and comparison, the valuations prior to COVID can be found in this previous post >> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1440991

As stated valuation are quite dynamic these days and can change based on the news of the week whether it be COVID and industry outlook, or news of an airline grounding a certain fleet type.


Many thanks for the data, LAXintl.

From memory, this is the first time that I've seen the top end values for the A320NEO better those of the 737MAX-8 (and the MAX-9 come to think of it)
Signs of a long term effect of the grounding? Don't know.
Also shows how little additional value the 737MAX-9 generates over the 737MAX-8 in the market.

A320NEO - $30.7 - 48.0M, $200-310,000
A321NEO - $41.5 - 56.0M, $240-360,000

B737MAX-8 - $33.7 -45.8M, $200,000-290,000
B737MAX-9 - $36.5 -47.0M, $220,000-300,000

For comparison with the previous generation...

A320 – $2.5 - 33.5M, $40-220,000
A321 – $7.4 - 42.1M, $70-280,000

B737-800 - $6.8 - 35.5M, $70-240,000
B737-900ER - $13.2 - 36.0M, $110-240,000

737-800 top end higher than the A320

Rgds
 
ScottB
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu May 20, 2021 1:50 pm

zeke wrote:
Zero demand for any large passenger aircraft at the moment. Even the low end of the A220-300 is greater than the 777-300ER.


Eh, you're comparing aircraft which are likely a couple of years old with ones that are 15-17 years old. Value of the 77W should hold up reasonably well going forward because it can haul a bunch of cargo along with the passengers. A380, not so much.

Elderly examples of previous-generation widebodies like A332/A333/767 are obviously being priced at scrap value. Not true for the 77W just yet.
 
co38
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu May 20, 2021 3:12 pm

Thanks for starting these threads, LAXintl!

Do these prices include engines?

Do you have any info about Boeing 717?
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu May 20, 2021 5:09 pm

MDGLongBeach wrote:
Great information! Thanks for sharing. Though one thing, I know they're pretty irrelevant now, but what's the value of MD80 family aircraft now that all major US airlines have retired them? Just curious.


MD-80's are scrap value today. I don't have any current valuation.
Even two years ago they had a theoretic paper value of $350-700,000 but could be had for less for sake of reducing storage space.

co38 wrote:
Do these prices include engines? Do you have any info about Boeing 717?

Yes on engines, though like aircraft they have their own valuations and market forces.

B717 - $1.0 - 4.7M, $40-70,000

As a comparison, RJs like CRJ900/E175 are far more valuable in the market than the 717.
 
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zeke
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu May 20, 2021 10:54 pm

ScottB wrote:
Eh, you're comparing aircraft which are likely a couple of years old with ones that are 15-17 years old. Value of the 77W should hold up reasonably well going forward because it can haul a bunch of cargo along with the passengers.


The 77W low end values are literally below the parted out value.
 
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Polot
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Fri May 21, 2021 2:06 pm

zeke wrote:
ScottB wrote:
Eh, you're comparing aircraft which are likely a couple of years old with ones that are 15-17 years old. Value of the 77W should hold up reasonably well going forward because it can haul a bunch of cargo along with the passengers.


The 77W low end values are literally below the parted out value.

While true, you still have to acknowledge the low end of the 77W is for a frame with ~16-17 year old years of service while the low end of the A223 is for a frame with ~4.5 years of service and the low end for the A221 is for a frame that is ~5 years old. Age matters- it’s why the low end of the 787-10 is so much higher than the low end of the A359.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Sat May 22, 2021 9:57 pm

sunking737 wrote:
At $7.0 million I see why SCX bought 5 of their leased 737-800..

With so many aircraft stored, the resale is a challenge.

Per this link, 7,850 commercial aircraft in storage. While many have been pulled from storage, that is still a scary high fraction of the fleet:
https://leehamnews.com/2021/05/13/2021- ... r-the-new/

Right now, larger narrowbodies are doing better (A321). I suspect this is because so much traffic is domestic and so much is going through the mega-hubs.

Lightsaber
 
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UPlog
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Mon May 24, 2021 9:51 pm

Interesting to see how the values of popular freighter feedstock like the 767-300 climbed.
Types popularity driven by folks like Amazon and market tightness drove values up for even 30-year-old frames.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue May 25, 2021 3:34 pm

UPlog wrote:
Interesting to see how the values of popular freighter feedstock like the 767-300 climbed.
Types popularity driven by folks like Amazon and market tightness drove values up for even 30-year-old frames.


Will be interesting how long 763 values stay up as some larger fleet retirements such as Delta are on the horizon.
 
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mercure1
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu May 27, 2021 9:59 pm

I wonder how long will the trend to downsize widebodies will last?

Even pre-COVID the 787/A350 were the sweet spot and top end for many operators with 77W falling out of favor and A380 program canceled.

Only a decade ago many would have argued size would continue to grow, but yet here we are and smaller types are the most favored.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu May 27, 2021 10:06 pm

mercure1 wrote:
I wonder how long will the trend to downsize widebodies will last?

Even pre-COVID the 787/A350 were the sweet spot and top end for many operators with 77W falling out of favor and A380 program canceled.

Only a decade ago many would have argued size would continue to grow, but yet here we are and smaller types are the most favored.


Unfortunately, I think its here for the medium-term. While there is significant use of hubs right now and will be in the short-term for the long-haul flights, with the decreased demand the capacity isn't necessary. Medium-term I think we see additional destinations return and routes from different hubs (i.e., VS flight to City X from LHR and MAN, DL flight to City Y from JFK then ATL and DTW, etc.). Long-term I think there is potential, particularly as airports become more congested; this is particularly true for those already congested (or pre-pandemic congested). The capabilities of the 787 and A350 mean we can just do more routes, as opposed to routing them over hubs.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu May 27, 2021 10:15 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
I wonder how long will the trend to downsize widebodies will last?

Even pre-COVID the 787/A350 were the sweet spot and top end for many operators with 77W falling out of favor and A380 program canceled.

Only a decade ago many would have argued size would continue to grow, but yet here we are and smaller types are the most favored.


Unfortunately, I think its here for the medium-term. While there is significant use of hubs right now and will be in the short-term for the long-haul flights, with the decreased demand the capacity isn't necessary. Medium-term I think we see additional destinations return and routes from different hubs (i.e., VS flight to City X from LHR and MAN, DL flight to City Y from JFK then ATL and DTW, etc.). Long-term I think there is potential, particularly as airports become more congested; this is particularly true for those already congested (or pre-pandemic congested). The capabilities of the 787 and A350 mean we can just do more routes, as opposed to routing them over hubs.

I agree. The NEO & MAX will allow either more P2P or hubbing at new destinations. This means parked widebodies had better stick a leg out at the frieghter market. While TPAC will go back to widebody, new competition on shorter legs, e.g., TATL will have new entrants. e.g., JetBlue. The xLR will accelerate the trend.

Lightsaber

Late edit, this link compares CO2 per passenger.

Due to the capabilities to fly longer range (weight) that is a cost (fuel). I speculate that most TATL range traffic will become more P2P on narrowbodies.

https://theicct.org/sites/default/files ... ct2020.pdf
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu May 27, 2021 11:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I agree. The NEO & MAX will allow either more P2P or hubbing at new destinations. This means parked widebodies had better stick a leg out at the frieghter market. While TPAC will go back to widebody, new competition on shorter legs, e.g., TATL will have new entrants. e.g., JetBlue. The xLR will accelerate the trend.

Lightsaber

Late edit, this link compares CO2 per passenger.

Due to the capabilities to fly longer range (weight) that is a cost (fuel). I speculate that most TATL range traffic will become more P2P on narrowbodies.

https://theicct.org/sites/default/files ... ct2020.pdf


I'm really curious how this shakes out. We have seen numerous attempts at TATL narrowbodies now and it doesn't seem to stick other for a handful of routes on the US3. Perhaps the XLR will be a game changer and/or entrants like JetBlue as opposed to Norwegian, etc. The A220 seems to be gaining some attention for longer haul flights to SA on Breeze, so possibilities there, too. So if anything will succeed in those markets, this is probably it - or will it go the way it previously has?

Maybe this isn't the best analogy, but will TATL traffic prefer widebodies, much like Asia typically prefers widebodies? I'm constantly surprised by the intra-Asia widebodies.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:59 am

Lufthansa seems to list a bunch of their A346 for sale. Any idea what price they can hope for for these aircraft? With so many A346 coming on the market, what will that do to the A346 pricing? Scrap value?

https://www.myairtrade.com/available/A340
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu Jun 24, 2021 3:54 pm

LAXintl wrote:
UPlog wrote:
Interesting to see how the values of popular freighter feedstock like the 767-300 climbed.
Types popularity driven by folks like Amazon and market tightness drove values up for even 30-year-old frames.


Will be interesting how long 763 values stay up as some larger fleet retirements such as Delta are on the horizon.


Delta is already retiring parts of their 763 fleet and they are getting snatched up ASAP by freight operators. Though this boosts immediate sale values, a lot of their early fleet has extremely high hours and will end up as parts sources rather than having second lives as whole planes. This is the role currently filled bu the ex-ANA frames that are sent to get chopped, as they had a lot of domestic cycles on them, many more than the primarily TATL workhorses of the DL/AA (already all converted/in conversion) and UA fleets.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:09 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Lightsaber

Late edit, this link compares CO2 per passenger.

Due to the capabilities to fly longer range (weight) that is a cost (fuel). I speculate that most TATL range traffic will become more P2P on narrowbodies.

https://theicct.org/sites/default/files ... ct2020.pdf


Interesting link. It's not hard to see why DL is dumping the 717s. (See page 17 in that link for CO2 by seat by aircraft type.) Forget about 'virtue signaling' by declaring intent to reduce CO2 intensity - fuel burn is money.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu Jun 24, 2021 4:58 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Lightsaber

Late edit, this link compares CO2 per passenger.

Due to the capabilities to fly longer range (weight) that is a cost (fuel). I speculate that most TATL range traffic will become more P2P on narrowbodies.

https://theicct.org/sites/default/files ... ct2020.pdf


Interesting link. It's not hard to see why DL is dumping the 717s. (See page 17 in that link for CO2 by seat by aircraft type.) Forget about 'virtue signaling' by declaring intent to reduce CO2 intensity - fuel burn is money.

Fuel is money. Today's spot price $1.847/gallon. My conversion is $598 per metric ton and even a 717 can haul 13.38 metric tons of fuel or assuming a flight burns say half that, an even $4,000 per leg.

I believe oil is too cheap to expand production. So I fully expect JetA to hit $3/gallon or $971/metric ton or $6,500 per leg.

It isn't for any signaling, this is for the money. Including the cost of engine overhauls. I believe the retirement timeline was to halt engine overhauls and use up green time.

Same with the CR2 and 767 fleets.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu Jun 24, 2021 5:09 pm

co38 wrote:
Lufthansa seems to list a bunch of their A346 for sale. Any idea what price they can hope for for these aircraft? With so many A346 coming on the market, what will that do to the A346 pricing? Scrap value?

https://www.myairtrade.com/available/A340

I am not aware of any A346 resale market for passenger duty.
Does LH have resale value guarantees? (I do not know, but rumor is most A346 sold to airlines had them.)

Large widebodies have a really poor aftermarket right now. The 777-300ER and A330 have some relief as future freight stock.

Same with the A321 and 738 (my opinion is that 738 stock is cheap enough that 73G/733 conversions are less desirable until passenger demand recovers and then we return to normalish conversions).

A320 too, I just think buyers sre waiting on more conversion competition, but I don't know the demand (I speculate). I am only aware of one prototype in work (many proposed, I'm talking metal being cut).
https://cargofacts.com/allposts/convers ... onversion/

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu Jun 24, 2021 5:26 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:

Interesting link. It's not hard to see why DL is dumping the 717s. (See page 17 in that link for CO2 by seat by aircraft type.) Forget about 'virtue signaling' by declaring intent to reduce CO2 intensity - fuel burn is money.


DL announced last year fleet simplification when they had 20 types in the mainline and subsidiaries, which I think will result in the retirement of the MD80/90/717, CRJ, 757/767/777 and older A320s. This will have massive cost saving just in reducing types.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu Jun 24, 2021 6:02 pm

lightsaber wrote:
co38 wrote:
Lufthansa seems to list a bunch of their A346 for sale. Any idea what price they can hope for for these aircraft? With so many A346 coming on the market, what will that do to the A346 pricing? Scrap value?

https://www.myairtrade.com/available/A340

I am not aware of any A346 resale market for passenger duty.
Does LH have resale value guarantees? (I do not know, but rumor is most A346 sold to airlines had them.)

Large widebodies have a really poor aftermarket right now. The 777-300ER and A330 have some relief as future freight stock.

Same with the A321 and 738 (my opinion is that 738 stock is cheap enough that 73G/733 conversions are less desirable until passenger demand recovers and then we return to normalish conversions).

A320 too, I just think buyers sre waiting on more conversion competition, but I don't know the demand (I speculate). I am only aware of one prototype in work (many proposed, I'm talking metal being cut).
https://cargofacts.com/allposts/convers ... onversion/

Lightsaber


Not only freighters to my surprise :shock:
According to this article, Turkish Air Force plans to convert 7 A330 -200s from Turkish Airlines to MRTTs

https://www.defenceturkey.com/en/content/turaf-to-replace-kc-135r-stratotankers-with-a330-mrtt-aircraft-4604
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:54 am

I was surprised to find out 22 of Indigo's returned A320CEOs remain with the leasing companies:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstor ... NewsSearch

My interpretation (and this should be no surprise) is Indigo is returning aircraft as fat as lease terms allow. This will hurt the A320CEO resale market having so many sit. I notice the subleased A320CEO were returned (e.g., 11 back to Scoot in the article), I wonder how much over-supply that created? This is going to take a while to work the surplus out of the system.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 8:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I was surprised to find out 22 of Indigo's returned A320CEOs remain with the leasing companies:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstor ... NewsSearch

My interpretation (and this should be no surprise) is Indigo is returning aircraft as fat as lease terms allow. This will hurt the A320CEO resale market having so many sit. I notice the subleased A320CEO were returned (e.g., 11 back to Scoot in the article), I wonder how much over-supply that created? This is going to take a while to work the surplus out of the system.

Lightsaber


With the speed at which IndiGo is receiving new aircraft, it is no wonder that leasing companies take longer than normal times to relocate the aircraft, if at all. Some are not brand new either, but came from other airlines via the leaser.
The market is oversaturated in my opinion and that of course pushes the used market price towards the south. But there is also the trend of the airlines towards the next larger variant, which also pushes the resale value down extremely, see A319 for example. Take a look at the link to see how many A319s are only being scrapped at this location (there are also four IndiGo A320s for whatever reason) The situation for the A319 is not getting better but worse and why? Our beloved A220-300 ate it for breakfast. That's life, one has to go for something better !

http://www.southwalesaviationgroup.co.uk/p/airliners-st-athan.html
 
jbs2886
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 8:09 pm

oldJoe wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I was surprised to find out 22 of Indigo's returned A320CEOs remain with the leasing companies:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstor ... NewsSearch

My interpretation (and this should be no surprise) is Indigo is returning aircraft as fat as lease terms allow. This will hurt the A320CEO resale market having so many sit. I notice the subleased A320CEO were returned (e.g., 11 back to Scoot in the article), I wonder how much over-supply that created? This is going to take a while to work the surplus out of the system.

Lightsaber


With the speed at which IndiGo is receiving new aircraft, it is no wonder that leasing companies take longer than normal times to relocate the aircraft, if at all. Some are not brand new either, but came from other airlines via the leaser.
The market is oversaturated in my opinion and that of course pushes the used market price towards the south. But there is also the trend of the airlines towards the next larger variant, which also pushes the resale value down extremely, see A319 for example. Take a look at the link to see how many A319s are only being scrapped at this location (there are also four IndiGo A320s for whatever reason) The situation for the A319 is not getting better but worse and why? Our beloved A220-300 ate it for breakfast. That's life, one has to go for something better !

http://www.southwalesaviationgroup.co.uk/p/airliners-st-athan.html


The market should balance itself out if this truly becomes an issue. That is, lessors will stop doing purchase/leasebacks with Indigo because it floods the market. Until that happens, lessors have made the financial analysis to support Indigo's business model of ordering lots of new planes, selling and leasing them back, and then retiring young.
 
Strato2
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 8:50 pm

The hardest hit aircraft is the 747-8i. It is not even mentioned.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:00 pm

Strato2 wrote:
The hardest hit aircraft is the 747-8i. It is not even mentioned.


If there are no sellers and no buyers, there wouldn't really be a price and that doesn't necessarily mean its been the hardest hit. The A380 has gotten slammed by most carriers retiring it, except a handful; in contrast, name a single airline that retired their 747-8is (yes, I know there are only like 3, but of the 2 with A380s one may not even bring back the A380 although that is currently discussed).
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:00 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
oldJoe wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I was surprised to find out 22 of Indigo's returned A320CEOs remain with the leasing companies:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstor ... NewsSearch

My interpretation (and this should be no surprise) is Indigo is returning aircraft as fat as lease terms allow. This will hurt the A320CEO resale market having so many sit. I notice the subleased A320CEO were returned (e.g., 11 back to Scoot in the article), I wonder how much over-supply that created? This is going to take a while to work the surplus out of the system.

Lightsaber


With the speed at which IndiGo is receiving new aircraft, it is no wonder that leasing companies take longer than normal times to relocate the aircraft, if at all. Some are not brand new either, but came from other airlines via the leaser.
The market is oversaturated in my opinion and that of course pushes the used market price towards the south. But there is also the trend of the airlines towards the next larger variant, which also pushes the resale value down extremely, see A319 for example. Take a look at the link to see how many A319s are only being scrapped at this location (there are also four IndiGo A320s for whatever reason) The situation for the A319 is not getting better but worse and why? Our beloved A220-300 ate it for breakfast. That's life, one has to go for something better !

http://www.southwalesaviationgroup.co.uk/p/airliners-st-athan.html


The market should balance itself out if this truly becomes an issue. That is, lessors will stop doing purchase/leasebacks with Indigo because it floods the market. Until that happens, lessors have made the financial analysis to support Indigo's business model of ordering lots of new planes, selling and leasing them back, and then retiring young.

It won't be Indigo they cease. They have good credit and a reputation for keeping to contract.

It will balance itself out in pricier leases, not a lack of business. This will effect all similar term leases.

Lightsaber
 
jbs2886
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
oldJoe wrote:

With the speed at which IndiGo is receiving new aircraft, it is no wonder that leasing companies take longer than normal times to relocate the aircraft, if at all. Some are not brand new either, but came from other airlines via the leaser.
The market is oversaturated in my opinion and that of course pushes the used market price towards the south. But there is also the trend of the airlines towards the next larger variant, which also pushes the resale value down extremely, see A319 for example. Take a look at the link to see how many A319s are only being scrapped at this location (there are also four IndiGo A320s for whatever reason) The situation for the A319 is not getting better but worse and why? Our beloved A220-300 ate it for breakfast. That's life, one has to go for something better !

http://www.southwalesaviationgroup.co.uk/p/airliners-st-athan.html


The market should balance itself out if this truly becomes an issue. That is, lessors will stop doing purchase/leasebacks with Indigo because it floods the market. Until that happens, lessors have made the financial analysis to support Indigo's business model of ordering lots of new planes, selling and leasing them back, and then retiring young.

It won't be Indigo they cease. They have good credit and a reputation for keeping to contract.

It will balance itself out in pricier leases, not a lack of business. This will effect all similar term leases.

Lightsaber


Agree, my point was that if it truly becomes an issue lessors just won't acquire new aircraft. But, that is such a severe case scenario, it is highly unlikely. What is likely is what you suggest - we are both just saying lessors will adjust accordingly to the market.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Mon Jul 12, 2021 9:28 pm

Strato2 wrote:
The hardest hit aircraft is the 747-8i. It is not even mentioned.


As the entire fleet is owned, there is nothing to compute a lease rate on, especially since none of the owners would be leasing their frames out to another operator.

And since nobody other than the current operators would be in the market for more (and that in itself is most unlikely), there will not be any sales transactions that could be used to calculate a possible value.

At best, there might be asset value guarantees in the original sales contracts with Boeing, but those would be confidential and might not even still be in effect, if they ever existed.

When the first frames are sold for scrap, then we'll get a feel for what a 747-8I is worth, at least as a collection of re-sellable parts.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 12:45 am

jbs2886 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

The market should balance itself out if this truly becomes an issue. That is, lessors will stop doing purchase/leasebacks with Indigo because it floods the market. Until that happens, lessors have made the financial analysis to support Indigo's business model of ordering lots of new planes, selling and leasing them back, and then retiring young.

It won't be Indigo they cease. They have good credit and a reputation for keeping to contract.

It will balance itself out in pricier leases, not a lack of business. This will effect all similar term leases.

Lightsaber


Agree, my point was that if it truly becomes an issue lessors just won't acquire new aircraft. But, that is such a severe case scenario, it is highly unlikely. What is likely is what you suggest - we are both just saying lessors will adjust accordingly to the market.

Since a sale leaseback is a Dutch auction, the terms will adjust. Mostly as the prior low traunch bond buyers, aren't buying. So the amount financed will have dropped (airline takes more of the price risk) and interest rates climb. Eventually the purchase contract provisions are broken allowing Indigo to differ orders.

But lets not forget about negative interest rates for the leasing companies. They are paid to borrow as that ensures jobs. If they stop delivering to a pretty good credit risk like Indigo, that means other airlines are not receiving aircraft either. Whoa to the job losses.

https://kevinbae.com/2021/europes-negat ... est-rates/

Low interest rates, in my opinion, always create mal-investment. So airlines are unusually incentivised to take new aircraft under... bizarre lease terms.

Think about it. Values are dropping during negative interest rates. Rhoo Rhoo...

No wonder Allegiant is buying moderate age A320CEOs (CFM) for only $16.5 M cash! :wideeyed:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/442448 ... transcript

This isn't just Airbus aircraft. It is less exciting to talk about how the 738 was too pricey for mass conversions to mass pax to freight conversions.

Low interest rates are putting the global markets out of balance. This will impact everything.

Lightsaber
 
BestWestern
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:53 am

We are also seeing start up and tertiary airlines acquiring cheap wide bodies to launch longer haul routes such as UK to India and ex Sudan.

The A330 still has many years ahead of it, so expecting most to find a home.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:44 am

Pretty-interesting that the lease/purchase prices for 744Fs are actually lower now than 767Fs, even though most of the 744Fs we know about are flying or being readied to fly. That's a signal that they're not anticipated to be needed in the longer-term, but it shows the virtue of a company like ATC's short-term opportunistic play. And ATC is staying busy.

Looking at the US widebody MD11/747 freighter operators, it's interesting to me that SkyLease has settled down over the past month or so into basically-servicing two routes continuously, with little downtime at each stop (which is their MO). Previously, they were running a lot of ad-hoc routes, but now it's almost-entirely LAX-WUH-ANC-LAX (or JFK) on N903AR and ORD-YHZ-ANC-CSX-ANC-ORD (so fish from YHZ Westbound to CSX, and merch Eastbound to ORD) on N904AR. National is doing a lot more military. Western Global is a mix of FedEx, Asia and military. This suggests that some of the dedicated-freighter demand is lightening just a smidge, but we're about to get into shipping for the Christmas season (amazingly enough given the temperatures here today), and given the backups in floating stuff around, air is going to end up being an important component for essential, higher-value stuff. Which should keep the 744Fs out of the desert for at least a little while longer.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 2:55 pm

As always, demand drives prices. It will be interesting to see where the values finally end up for the A321P2F when they arrive on the market.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:33 pm

ILNFlyer,
I think competition for stock is going to be the limiting factor on A321P2F conversions. This isn't a negative, they are still really good passenger aircraft in my opinion!

So I am excited for the possibility of A320P2F conversions as looking at the lease/value thread, my opinion is too many are looking for a good home.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1460947

I believe the lack of volume A32xP2F has helped 738 conversions tremendously. As new conversions, in particular once we have multiple A320 conversions at many sites, I expect the market to balance out.

I'm facinated by how quickly prior generation narrowbody aircraft will be converted.

Lightsaber
 
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Stitch
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:54 pm

I am guessing the HGW models of the A321 would be the most desirable from a conversion standpoint, but those would also be the frames that still have the most appeal to remain in passenger service.
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:12 pm

I found a link on A220 and E2 lease pricing that I believe shows a slight deterioration in top lease pricing:
A220-100 $32.6 $230k
A220-300 $36.8 $256k
E2-190 $31.1 $222k
E2-195 $33.9 $242k

The article notes if Covid19 continues, there will be less demand for these "crossover jets."

Lightsaber
 
Jetport
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 4:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I found a link on A220 and E2 lease pricing that I believe shows a slight deterioration in top lease pricing:
A220-100 $32.6 $230k
A220-300 $36.8 $256k
E2-190 $31.1 $222k
E2-195 $33.9 $242k

The article notes if Covid19 continues, there will be less demand for these "crossover jets."

Lightsaber


I think you forgot to post the link?
 
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Re: Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2021

Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:39 pm

Jetport wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I found a link on A220 and E2 lease pricing that I believe shows a slight deterioration in top lease pricing:
A220-100 $32.6 $230k
A220-300 $36.8 $256k
E2-190 $31.1 $222k
E2-195 $33.9 $242k

The article notes if Covid19 continues, there will be less demand for these "crossover jets."

Lightsaber


I think you forgot to post the link?

Oops, I did forget. Here it is;
https://www.truenoord.com/wp-content/up ... t-2021.pdf

More in the living link worth reading, but it goes off topic as it is an analysis on the "crossover jet" (100 to 150 seat) market.

Lightsaber

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