Welcome to the COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q4 2021. Please continue your discussion and to post your news below.

Link to last thread:

COVID-19 Non Aviation Thread - Q3 2021

https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E5%85%A7%E5% ... 00532.html

Chinese government is not satisfied with Hong Kong's coronavirus measure, say they're too lax, listed the following aspects which Hong Kong government should improve for border between Hong Kong and Mainland China to reopen:
1. Currently in Hong Kong, some flight crew, ship crew, and diplomatic personnel do not need to quarantine at hotel, if they meet certain conditions. Chinese government have told Hong Kong government such measure need to be tightened in order to prevent cases from leaking in
2. Currently, coronavirus patients/carriers in Hong Kong can be discharged from hospital, if three samples from their respiratory tract have CT value over 33 in PCR test, indicating minimal viral load, and sustain over ten days. On this, the Chinese government commented there are no basis from WHO supporting such procedure, worries that it might lead to re-positive in later test result, and potentially spreading the virus, despite no such case in the city so far. The Chinese government have instead proposed that patients/carriers should only be discharged if they're consecutively tested with absolutely zero virus remaining in their body, and they should observe a 14 days quarantine after being discharged from hospital, in order to minimize such risk.
3.Chinese government have also proposed that, "high risk group" like medical staffs, airport staffs, and hotel staffs who have contact with inbound travellers, should receive coronavirus test every two days, despite those groups have already been required to vaccinate.

In addition, the Hong Kong government is also reportedly developing a new QR code based system to facilitate cross border traffic when border with China reopen, possibly to match China's "health code" system.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-zealan ... 1633331640
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14453754
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronav ... nt-2562950
New Zealand announced end to covid zero policy, relaxing restrictions in Auckland partially.
Again, Delta.

c933103 wrote:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-zealand-to-end-zero-covid-19-strategy-11633331640
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14453754
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronav ... nt-2562950
New Zealand announced end to covid zero policy, relaxing restrictions in Auckland partially.
Again, Delta.

Unfortunately in NZ the R number of less then 1 has recently gradually risen to a little above 1 after the incredibly strict lockdown in Auckland was relaxed to a less stringent lockdown. A lockdown now with takeaway food and click and collect retail and construction allowed to restart and from today outside gatherings from two families and not more then ten people. "Whoo Haa"
Unfortunately elimination was not achieved within the time Aucklanders could tolerate suffering lockdown whilst the rest of the country remained only mildly inconvenienced by covid restrictions and free of the disease itself.

With a R number now above 1 elimination in Auckland became impossible, so the government response has now had to shift to incurring the least amount of damage until satisfactory vaccination levels are obtained, whilst simultaneously preventing outright revolt against the necessary restrictions suffered by Aucklanders to benifit all of NZ.

We now have a situation where 85% of Aucklanders over the age of 11 have received their first dose, but in some areas of the country it is more like only 65%.This is particularly concerning in that some of the most vulnerable communities are among the least vaccinated. A logistical, but more particularly a challenge of gaining confidence in marginalised communities. Obviously having covid circulating in your community is a considerable incentive to get vaccinated.

We have probably a mirror of the vaccination situation in Australia, between the high vaccination levels of covid suffering NSW, ACT and VIC compared to the rest of covid free Australia.
So where Australia has to navigate it's way around integrating SE Australia to the rest of Australia here it is integrating Auckland with the rest of the country.

For the relaxation mode there is the further challenge of reconciling business interests that want dates to plan to, and the health professionals who want it to be based on vaccination rates, daily case number trends, and remaining hospital capacity.

Still with only one death this outbreak and 27 in total, and for the large part a near fully functioning economy since the beginning of the pandemic, the credentials of the current health and political team remain impressive compared to elsewhere in the world.

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/as ... ister-says
Despite 67% residents in Hong Kong have received their first dose vaccines, elderly homes in the territory are still less than 10% vaccinated, despite being priority group.
The government plan to increase vaccination rate at these facilities by giving vaccine to everyone living at designated facilities, unless their families specifically send a message to opt out.

https://www.thinkhk.com/article/2021-10/04/51801.html
Opinion article on Chinese propaganda media criticize Hong Kong government on their coronavirus measure, making the following points:
- Certain Hong Kong official claimed that, despite removing border restriction with Mainland China have become the top priority mission in Hong Kong government, it is difficult for them to lift restrictions on travelers from overseas, due to Chinese government policy of strictly preventing importation of cases, and due to the West's policy of co-existence with virus, and it have already created chilling effect on international commerce and exchanges.
- The article writer claim, it mean those Hong Kong government officials are still holding a wrong attitude against China Mainland, disrespecting Mainland China development and reject Mainland China pandemic prevention policy, blindly follow Western ideas, and such irresponsibility should be completely overturned.
- The writer further stated that, since Hong Kong is part of China, Hong Kong's pandemic prevention policy should also be linked to China's nationwide pandemic prevention policy
- The writer further claim the mainstream opinion in Hong Kong want traffic restriction with China Mainland to be lifted, anyone blocking it would be sinister to Hong Kong, especially during the current situation when the chaos in the society have been eliminated for efficient governance and step toward vitalization, and thus Hong Kong government official should think carefully what role they should act in the process.
- The writer cited a report from Chinese government, claim that companies from US, UK, Austria and Malaysia still agree Hong Kong is an ideal place of doing business, and overseas business are still full of anticipation on the Chinese government's 14th Fifth Year Plan as well as the construction of Greater Bay Area around Hong Kong, Macau, and nearby Guangdong cities, which fully rebutted the chilling effect mentioned by the Hong Kong government official.

https://twitter.com/hst_tvasahi/status/ ... 7697285126
Experts in Japan do not understand why they are seeing the infection rate in the country falling, say it's difficult to prepare for next wave without understanding why the infection rate is now falling.
Proposed factors include:
- People elevated their sense of alertness as infection was peaking and with Delta spreading
- People staying in city center at night reduced
- Vaccine rate increased
- Clusters at hospitals and elder homes and such reduced
- The weather changes, temperature changes, and rains

But none of them seems to be able to explain why the infection rate is dropping this much.

Kent350787 wrote:

NSW Australia has now reached almost 73% 16+ fully vaccinated, and over 90% with at least one dose. Almost 65% of 12-15yo have had at least a first dose.

Daily new case numbers have trended down dramatically over the last 10 days, with a combination of lockdown and increasing vaccination. An initial easing of lockdown starts today. Travel outside Greater Sydney remains restricted, and state borders remain closed to NSW residents. We expect to reach 80% 16+ fully vaxxed later next week, and at that point there will be further easing of restrictions, plus school students returning face to face.

The expectation is that daily case numbers will once again increase as restrictions ease, but that high vax rates will mean that hospitalisations will not dramatically increase.

Well, remember vaccine take two weeks to show their full effect after getting second dose

https://www.health.com/condition/infect ... -2-variant
UK report AY4.2 sublineage of Delta variant on the rise, and is something like 10% more infective than the original Delta

c933103 wrote:

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/what-is-ay4-2-variant
UK report AY4.2 sublineage of Delta variant on the rise, and is something like 10% more infective than the original Delta

A bit concerning, but with the rise of vaccinations and the current destructive wave that delta unleashed, I don't see it as being quite as rampant as Delta.

casinterest wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/what-is-ay4-2-variant
UK report AY4.2 sublineage of Delta variant on the rise, and is something like 10% more infective than the original Delta

A bit concerning, but with the rise of vaccinations and the current destructive wave that delta unleashed, I don't see it as being quite as rampant as Delta.

That in itself is a type of Delta and further evolve from that.

http://www.hkcd.com/hkcdweb/content/202 ... 00838.html
A Chinese officials claim, Mainland China will not open its border to Hong Kong, unless Hong Kong government change its contact tracing app, from voluntary reporting to automatic tracking, despite zero local infection for months. It further mentioned because Hong Kong use "One Country Two System", which is interpreted as "Two System being a product of One Country", Hong Kong government need to follow the Chinese government principle.

林鄭月娥：將取消大部分來港豁免檢疫群組
https://news.mingpao.com/ins/%e6%b8%af% ... 5215149455
Carrie Lam: Hong Kong will cancel most quarantine exemption, aka reinstating quarantine restriction to most groups of people travelling into Hong Kong who currently enjoy exemption, except truck drover to China can still be exempted.
Currently, Hong Kong government allow people like ambassador from foreign countries or CEO of market-listed companies, to enter HK without quarantine as long as they report their itinerary to the government. However, over the past year, there have been a few cases where such ambassadors from foreign countries being founf to be infected by the virus after entering the city without quarantine.
Carrie Lam said, she hope such measure can help increase Mainland China government's trust on Hong Kong's pandemic prevention protocol, and allow the border between Hong Kong and Mainland China to reopen as soon as possible.

I like to analyze data.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases

I see 5 peaks of Covid19 where early troughs are tough to identify.
Peak #1 4/22/2020
Trough #1 5/10/202 (not a real trough)
Peak #2 8/5/2020 (87 days later)
Trough #2 10/5/2020 (61 days later)
Peak #3 1/13/2021 (100 days later)
Trough #3 2/20/2021 (38 days later)
Peak #4 4/25/2021 (64 days later)
Trough #4 6/20/2021 (56 days later)
Peak #5 8/20/2021 (61 days later)
Trough #6 10/20/2021 (61 days later)

edited for typos



We seem to have settled into a sine wave of 120 to 122 day period. So Valentine's day next year doesn't look so good.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

I like to analyze data.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases

I see 5 peaks of Covid19 where early troughs are tough to identify.
Peak #1 4/22/2020
Trough #1 5/10/202 (not a real trough)
Peak #2 8/5/2020 (87 days later)
Trough #2 10/5/2020 (61 days later)
Peak #3 1/13/2021 (100 days later)
Trough #3 2/20/2021 (38 days later)
Peak #4 4/25/2021 (64 days later)
Trough #4 6/20/2021 (56 days later)
Peak #5 8/20/2021 (61 days later)
Trough #6 10/20/2021 (61 days later)

edited for typos



We seem to have settled into a sine wave of 120 to 122 day period. So Valentine's day next year doesn't look so good.

Lightsaber

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/68488 ... 09a722b192
Interestingly, as Japan's fifth wave case rate drop rapidly, from many thousands in big cities each day to less than 100 in the span of just a few weeks, experts say of course vaccine helps but that alone is impossible to explain such rapid drop. Other theories being proposed included human actions (as report of medical emergency and hospitals hitting capacity scare people from going out or take more precautions), Delta being less infectious than expected (maybe only 20% instead of 50% more infectious than Alpha), and then this 120 days cycle theory.
But then question is, what caused this 120 daya cycles? Is it intrinsic to the virus, like it was Delta dominating in the latest peak in Japan, with 4 months ago it was Alpha dominating, and going 4 more months back it would be the D614G strain, or was ot a natural cycle of infection caused by humam action and response to different phases of pandemic? If it is caused by new variants, then success in stopping the inflow of new variants or the virus itself didn't develop a more powerful variant should mean there will be no more new waves of infection, otherwise another wave can be expected this winter.

Yet, regardless which of these hypothesis being true, such rapid drop of cases in Japan indicate the virus could just wither from population without needing the government implementing any extra prevention measure among the population, and such could be instrumental to future policy against coronavirus outbreak



edit: if the theory establish then wouldn't the next global peak be around Christmas?

Kent350787 wrote:

c933103 wrote:

[
Interestingly, as Japan's fifth wave case rate drop rapidly, from many thousands in big cities each day to less than 100 in the span of just a few weeks, experts say of course vaccine helps but that alone is impossible to explain such rapid drop. Other theories being proposed included human actions (as report of medical emergency and hospitals hitting capacity scare people from going out or take more precautions), Delta being less infectious than expected (maybe only 20% instead of 50% more infectious than Alpha), and then this 120 days cycle theory.
But then question is, what caused this 120 daya cycles? Is it intrinsic to the virus, like it was Delta dominating in the latest peak in Japan, with 4 months ago it was Alpha dominating, and going 4 more months back it would be the D614G strain, or was ot a natural cycle of infection caused by humam action and response to different phases of pandemic? If it is caused by new variants, then success in stopping the inflow of new variants or the virus itself didn't develop a more powerful variant should mean there will be no more new waves of infection, otherwise another wave can be expected this winter.

Yet, regardless which of these hypothesis being true, such rapid drop of cases in Japan indicate the virus could just wither from population without needing the government implementing any extra prevention measure among the population, and such could be instrumental to future policy against coronavirus outbreak



edit: if the theory establish then wouldn't the next global peak be around Christmas?

It seems as though we'll never know what has been successful from amongst a suite of control strategies. Lockdown measures and high vaccination rates have seen a (reasonably) rapid decline in case numbers in Sydney, Australia, as well as ongoing falls in hospitalisations and ICU needs. Almost two weeks after ending major lockdown (indoor masks, density limits and mandatory vaccination to eat or drink in hospitality venues are the major remaining restrictions) there has been no uptick in cases.

Melbourne is at most two weeks behind for similarly high vaccination rates, but daily case numbers remain high (for Australia) even though lockdown has ended based on those vax rates.

My suspicion is that the NSW focus on initial high case suburbs and sub-regions for extra restrictions and then vaccine access has paid benefits in Sydney and that resistance in Melbourne to another lockdown after last year across the city may not have shown the expected benefits.

I mean the article indicate the decline is not due to any artificial control strategy. Yes that's also the period when vaccination campaign are moving successfully in Japan, but the speed of dropping is far greater than what can be expected from merely the effect of vaccines. There were also no significant new pandemic prevention policy in place in the time frame leading up to and during such quick drop in case number in Japanese cities. It just seems to die down naturally. And the question is if the virus just die down naturally then do we really need to implement those additional policies that would inconvenience the people and hurt the economy when the virus would just go away in itself in form of waves?

Aaron747 wrote:

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I like to analyze data.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... rmed+cases

I see 5 peaks of Covid19 where early troughs are tough to identify.
Peak #1 4/22/2020
Trough #1 5/10/202 (not a real trough)
Peak #2 8/5/2020 (87 days later)
Trough #2 10/5/2020 (61 days later)
Peak #3 1/13/2021 (100 days later)
Trough #3 2/20/2021 (38 days later)
Peak #4 4/25/2021 (64 days later)
Trough #4 6/20/2021 (56 days later)
Peak #5 8/20/2021 (61 days later)
Trough #6 10/20/2021 (61 days later)

edited for typos



We seem to have settled into a sine wave of 120 to 122 day period. So Valentine's day next year doesn't look so good.

Lightsaber

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/68488 ... 09a722b192
Interestingly, as Japan's fifth wave case rate drop rapidly, from many thousands in big cities each day to less than 100 in the span of just a few weeks, experts say of course vaccine helps but that alone is impossible to explain such rapid drop. Other theories being proposed included human actions (as report of medical emergency and hospitals hitting capacity scare people from going out or take more precautions), Delta being less infectious than expected (maybe only 20% instead of 50% more infectious than Alpha), and then this 120 days cycle theory.
But then question is, what caused this 120 daya cycles? Is it intrinsic to the virus, like it was Delta dominating in the latest peak in Japan, with 4 months ago it was Alpha dominating, and going 4 more months back it would be the D614G strain, or was ot a natural cycle of infection caused by humam action and response to different phases of pandemic? If it is caused by new variants, then success in stopping the inflow of new variants or the virus itself didn't develop a more powerful variant should mean there will be no more new waves of infection, otherwise another wave can be expected this winter.

Yet, regardless which of these hypothesis being true, such rapid drop of cases in Japan indicate the virus could just wither from population without needing the government implementing any extra prevention measure among the population, and such could be instrumental to future policy against coronavirus outbreak



edit: if the theory establish then wouldn't the next global peak be around Christmas?

At least in the US, that timing would repeat the experience of the late 2020 holiday travel season.

My relatives hospital in Colorado has been the flashpoint for two of the prior waves (sorry, no links, just noting they were full earlier).

Well... Colorado hospitals apparently has it the toughest now. My relative notes the wards are full (again).
https://news.yahoo.com/map-colorados-co ... 09631.html

I speculate this area being hit is due to resorts bringing in people from worldwide (trama hawks from Aspen, Telluride, and MOAB), a drinking/bar culture, a bunch of low cost tourism, and a low vaccination rate.

I don't know why the cycles, but it is there in the data. Oh, I can speculate, each one has been a new strain:
Wuhan
Other variants (California, New York, Beta, Gamma)
Alpha
Delta
Now something new.

The fact another wave is starting and the last wave was so bad indicates hope is not a method.

Lightsaber

Late edit? You did read the links of filling up hospitals? That is why we inconvenience ourselves; this is an invisible tragedy.

lightsaber wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/68488 ... 09a722b192
Interestingly, as Japan's fifth wave case rate drop rapidly, from many thousands in big cities each day to less than 100 in the span of just a few weeks, experts say of course vaccine helps but that alone is impossible to explain such rapid drop. Other theories being proposed included human actions (as report of medical emergency and hospitals hitting capacity scare people from going out or take more precautions), Delta being less infectious than expected (maybe only 20% instead of 50% more infectious than Alpha), and then this 120 days cycle theory.
But then question is, what caused this 120 daya cycles? Is it intrinsic to the virus, like it was Delta dominating in the latest peak in Japan, with 4 months ago it was Alpha dominating, and going 4 more months back it would be the D614G strain, or was ot a natural cycle of infection caused by humam action and response to different phases of pandemic? If it is caused by new variants, then success in stopping the inflow of new variants or the virus itself didn't develop a more powerful variant should mean there will be no more new waves of infection, otherwise another wave can be expected this winter.

Yet, regardless which of these hypothesis being true, such rapid drop of cases in Japan indicate the virus could just wither from population without needing the government implementing any extra prevention measure among the population, and such could be instrumental to future policy against coronavirus outbreak



edit: if the theory establish then wouldn't the next global peak be around Christmas?

At least in the US, that timing would repeat the experience of the late 2020 holiday travel season.

My relatives hospital in Colorado has been the flashpoint for two of the prior waves (sorry, no links, just noting they were full earlier).

Well... Colorado hospitals apparently has it the toughest now. My relative notes the wards are full (again).
https://news.yahoo.com/map-colorados-co ... 09631.html

I speculate this area being hit is due to resorts bringing in people from worldwide (trama hawks from Aspen, Telluride, and MOAB), a drinking/bar culture, a bunch of low cost tourism, and a low vaccination rate.

I don't know why the cycles, but it is there in the data. Oh, I can speculate, each one has been a new strain:
Wuhan
Other variants (California, New York, Beta, Gamma)
Alpha
Delta
Now something new.

The fact another wave is starting and the last wave was so bad indicates hope is not a method.

Lightsaber

Late edit? You did read the links of filling up hospitals? That is why we inconvenience ourselves; this is an invisible tragedy.

https://www.news-medical.net/health/D614G-Mutation.aspx
The 2020 summer strain was D614G mutation

Indeed in Japan the situation was also real bad at peak, but then the thing is, if the infection just fell off after the peak without extra government control measures, then doesn't it indicate it is not those additional government control measures that change the speed of spread? This applies to decrease but in fact also increase

The Endgame is getting nearer.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... -is-headed

Article basically states, that we are going towards herd acceptability of Covid-19. Basically what has been argued before

However it looks more and more likely now.

https://yns.page.link/2F2zy
Expert in Hong Kong say, Mainland China will only ooen its border to Hong Kong if travellers are willing to let apps automatically track where they have been to in Hong Kong in the 21 days before entering China, in addition to being tested negative and received vaccinations.
They also claim, it's expected that the border with Mainland China can reopen in February 2022, but if there are any single case of coronavirus with unknown source, then the scheme must be immediately suspended until 28 days after last known cases.

China authority also complained Hong Kong government offered too much quarantine exemption to air crew and maritime crew.

I find it, interesting EU cases are higher than USA, but lower than UK:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... +Union~GBR

I only found this as I was trying to find where the in world is testing enough to record the risking cases
Graph showing world cases increasing:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... =~OWID_WRL

It is my opinion that any country either not testing regions or having > 10% positivity rate doesn't really know how many cases they have. (e.g., if testing well, if you tested a million random people, you would only find a few additional cases, but in areas with a lack of testing, you might find the chart must be much higher):
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/posi ... y-smoothed

Oh well, next wave has started per the data (world cases increasing),
Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

I find it, interesting EU cases are higher than USA, but lower than UK:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... +Union~GBR

I only found this as I was trying to find where the in world is testing enough to record the risking cases
Graph showing world cases increasing:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... =~OWID_WRL

It is my opinion that any country either not testing regions or having > 10% positivity rate doesn't really know how many cases they have. (e.g., if testing well, if you tested a million random people, you would only find a few additional cases, but in areas with a lack of testing, you might find the chart must be much higher):
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/posi ... y-smoothed

Oh well, next wave has started per the data (world cases increasing),
Lightsaber

Meanwhile in Tokyo their case rate is still as low as 23 cases a day in the metropolitan area of 23 million, down from the peak of 6000.

casinterest wrote:

The Endgame is getting nearer.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... -is-headed

Article basically states, that we are going towards herd acceptability of Covid-19. Basically what has been argued before

However it looks more and more likely now.

Vaccination is accelerating on something that would have taken probably 5 years.

A lot of there severe illness that comes from Covid comes from the cytokine storm where the immune system attacks healthy tissue and the virus itself is probably not that dangerous once there is a baseline level of immunity in the population.

It has been observed even before vaccination that the symptoms ranged from nothing to death with cold and flu like symptoms, pneumonia, vascular damage such as strokes and heart inflammation and up to death, this is huge range of symptoms. With a level of immunity in the population yes you can get sick and its not dangerous but inconvenient.

However this disease requires a disproportionate amount of acute care if infection numbers are high which is why we probably need at minimum 85% vaccination for everybody to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. This being if you have no restrictions.

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I find it, interesting EU cases are higher than USA, but lower than UK:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... +Union~GBR

I only found this as I was trying to find where the in world is testing enough to record the risking cases
Graph showing world cases increasing:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... =~OWID_WRL

It is my opinion that any country either not testing regions or having > 10% positivity rate doesn't really know how many cases they have. (e.g., if testing well, if you tested a million random people, you would only find a few additional cases, but in areas with a lack of testing, you might find the chart must be much higher):
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/posi ... y-smoothed

Oh well, next wave has started per the data (world cases increasing),
Lightsaber

Meanwhile in Tokyo their case rate is still as low as 23 cases a day in the metropolitan area of 23 million, down from the peak of 6000.

Japan's sudden plunge in cases is amazing and confusing. I suspect their excellent discipline in mask wearing in addition to the large number of fresh vaccines reigned in cases.

Japan has decided everyone will be eligible for a booster shot:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/ ... residents/

Lightsaber

StarAC17 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

The Endgame is getting nearer.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... -is-headed

Article basically states, that we are going towards herd acceptability of Covid-19. Basically what has been argued before

However it looks more and more likely now.

Vaccination is accelerating on something that would have taken probably 5 years.

A lot of there severe illness that comes from Covid comes from the cytokine storm where the immune system attacks healthy tissue and the virus itself is probably not that dangerous once there is a baseline level of immunity in the population.

It has been observed even before vaccination that the symptoms ranged from nothing to death with cold and flu like symptoms, pneumonia, vascular damage such as strokes and heart inflammation and up to death, this is huge range of symptoms. With a level of immunity in the population yes you can get sick and its not dangerous but inconvenient.

However this disease requires a disproportionate amount of acute care if infection numbers are high which is why we probably need at minimum 85% vaccination for everybody to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. This being if you have no restrictions.

The question of vaccinations vs infection though is interesting. Some people will have that immunity now through infection that have chosen not to get vaccinated.
The numbers will play out going forward along that line. I expect based on the proposed US travel numbers for Thanksgiving and Christmas, that we will have a clear picture of where we are in January.
Either we hit another wave, or we get a flatish/declining infection/hospitalization trend.

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

I find it, interesting EU cases are higher than USA, but lower than UK:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... +Union~GBR

I only found this as I was trying to find where the in world is testing enough to record the risking cases
Graph showing world cases increasing:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... =~OWID_WRL

It is my opinion that any country either not testing regions or having > 10% positivity rate doesn't really know how many cases they have. (e.g., if testing well, if you tested a million random people, you would only find a few additional cases, but in areas with a lack of testing, you might find the chart must be much higher):
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/posi ... y-smoothed

Oh well, next wave has started per the data (world cases increasing),
Lightsaber

Meanwhile in Tokyo their case rate is still as low as 23 cases a day in the metropolitan area of 23 million, down from the peak of 6000.

Japan's sudden plunge in cases is amazing and confusing. I suspect their excellent discipline in mask wearing in addition to the large number of fresh vaccines reigned in cases.

Japan has decided everyone will be eligible for a booster shot:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/ ... residents/

Lightsaber

Yesterday they reported 9 new cases, fewest since the pandemic start, although weekend mean fewer tests would be conducted and halloween + election date + terror attack might also cause people not to seek immediate medical advice on less pressing circumstances

But still, with such trend, is it indicating Japan is now entering herd immunity phase?

Also, from Tokyo government's coronavirus portal, starting from Yesterday they will allow people to walk in for vaccines.

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Meanwhile in Tokyo their case rate is still as low as 23 cases a day in the metropolitan area of 23 million, down from the peak of 6000.

Japan's sudden plunge in cases is amazing and confusing. I suspect their excellent discipline in mask wearing in addition to the large number of fresh vaccines reigned in cases.

Japan has decided everyone will be eligible for a booster shot:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/ ... residents/

Lightsaber

Yesterday they reported 9 new cases, fewest since the pandemic start, although weekend mean fewer tests would be conducted and halloween + election date + terror attack might also cause people not to seek immediate medical advice on less pressing circumstances

But still, with such trend, is it indicating Japan is now entering herd immunity phase?

Also, from Tokyo government's coronavirus portal, starting from Yesterday they will allow people to walk in for vaccines.

Japan has enough recently vaccinated to squash the virus. O posted links upthread that note vaccines are great at limiting spread, but it turns out less effective when not new.

Japan is 72.81% freshly vaccinated.

If we assume Ro is mitigated by masks, say 70%.
Rt=Ro*Mask_eff*(1-Vac_eff_transmit*%vac)*(1-vac_prevent_inf*%vac)

If Ro=8 and for fresh vaccines the reduction in transmission is say 80%, the effectiveness is say 85%

%vac=72.81%
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... N~OWID_WRL



Rt=8*0.7*(1-.8*.7281)*(1-.85*.7281)=.89

As time goes on:
The effectiveness to preventing transmission will drop for the vaccines.

The effectiveness stopping infection will drop.

People will stop wearing masks.

So Japan is behaving a bit better than expected right now, but that could be isolating too. I would expect another wave once everyone lets down their guard unless many more are vaccinated.

There is a small increase in cases, but that could be a graphing error, anomaly, or a result of a more care free attitude.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... untry=~JPN

So the vaccinated are safe. Hopefully soon more kids vaccinated.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Japan's sudden plunge in cases is amazing and confusing. I suspect their excellent discipline in mask wearing in addition to the large number of fresh vaccines reigned in cases.

Japan has decided everyone will be eligible for a booster shot:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/ ... residents/

Lightsaber

Yesterday they reported 9 new cases, fewest since the pandemic start, although weekend mean fewer tests would be conducted and halloween + election date + terror attack might also cause people not to seek immediate medical advice on less pressing circumstances

But still, with such trend, is it indicating Japan is now entering herd immunity phase?

Also, from Tokyo government's coronavirus portal, starting from Yesterday they will allow people to walk in for vaccines.

Japan has enough recently vaccinated to squash the virus. O posted links upthread that note vaccines are great at limiting spread, but it turns out less effective when not new.

Japan is 72.81% freshly vaccinated.

If we assume Ro is mitigated by masks, say 70%.
Rt=Ro*Mask_eff*(1-Vac_eff_transmit*%vac)*(1-vac_prevent_inf*%vac)

If Ro=8 and for fresh vaccines the reduction in transmission is say 80%, the effectiveness is say 85%

%vac=72.81%
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... N~OWID_WRL



Rt=8*0.7*(1-.8*.7281)*(1-.85*.7281)=.89

As time goes on:
The effectiveness to preventing transmission will drop for the vaccines.

The effectiveness stopping infection will drop.

People will stop wearing masks.

So Japan is behaving a bit better than expected right now, but that could be isolating too. I would expect another wave once everyone lets down their guard unless many more are vaccinated.

There is a small increase in cases, but that could be a graphing error, anomaly, or a result of a more care free attitude.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... untry=~JPN

So the vaccinated are safe. Hopefully soon more kids vaccinated.

Lightsaber

If we assume R=0.89, and average transmission cycle of 3 days, then the number of new cases after 6 weeks should be 0.89^(6*7/3)=19.5% original case rate. But here we are seeing about 0.3% original case rate. So the reproduction factor in Tokyo should be much lower than that number.

https://www.wenweipo.com/a/202111/03/AP ... 336ed.html
Hong Kong government is going to ban restaurants from providing dinner unless they require diners use government tracking app
They claim hopefully such measure will push restaurants into supporting vaccinating their employees and thus allow them to open until midnight.
Restaurants worry that if diners use opensource webapp when scanning location data which appears the same as government tracking app, that have been deemed as fake by the government, the restaurant will be punished just like what the government previously did to restaurants who didn't guarantee diners are submitting their legitimate names or phone numbers when they enter restaurants. As the government have charged the alternative webapp user with crimes like fraud and forgery, there are also worries that restaurants would be linked to such charge if some of their users used such opensource webapp.

An study published in the British Medical Journal studied the effect of covid on life expectancy in 37 countries.
This is a macro measurement taking into account the secondary effects of the epidemic and the sum of the control measures imposed in the countries studied. The actual deaths in the period to those predicted to have occurred in the same period extrapolating historic data and trends.
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-066768

The covid epidemic has taken
2.3 years of life expectancy in Russia.
About 2 years in the US,
About 1.35 years in Italy Spain and England and Wales.
No change in Norway Denmark and South Korea.
Bizarrely life expectancy in New Zealand went up by about 8 months.
The covid control measures notably suppressed influenza deaths and perhaps the road toll.
Apart from in Luxenburg, the pandemic was much more deadly to males then females shortening their lives more.

https://www.chunichi.co.jp/article/357258
https://www.zakzak.co.jp/soc/news/21110 ... 03-n1.html

A report in Japan claim that, by the late August peak in the country, most variants of the novel coronavirus in Japan have already seen a mutation that will break an enzyme called "nsp14". Such nsp14 enzyme is thought to help keep the genome of such a large virus like viruses in the coronavirus family from getting too much mutation and reproduction error. By having mutation in such gene responsible for such enzyme, the virus will no longer be able to produce this "nsp14" enzyme and the result is reproduction error in the virus will accumulate and cannot repair itself, causing the virus losing productivity.

They claim they have observed similar trend in increased prevalence of mutation in genes responsible for "nsp14" enzyme in the 2020 fall - 2021 spring wave.

Without such "nsp14" enzyme, the virus will mutate at 10-20 times the normal rate.

The research team speculate that, an APOBEC enzyme inside human body is responsible causing such changes to virus gene responsible for such enzyme. And this APOBEC enzyme is especially active among human population in East Asia and Oceania.

(Somehow the only semi related English article I can found https://truth11.com/2021/11/03/vaccines ... r-cells-2/ twisted the story into "Coronaviirus vaccine will break gene repair in your cell and 5G radiation is going to produce free radical in your blood damaging your brain cells")

Ireland did well, only having about a third of ICU patients die.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland ... -1.4719379

I'm going to reword the article. By taking measures that allowed greater ICU staffing ratios, they were able to save people countries who had more overloaded ICUs.

This pandemic is now all about freeing up hospitals for their normal work and keeping up coronavirus staffing ratios.

Is only we had a medicine proven to keep the majority out of the hospital and reduce transmission... /snark

c933103 wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

c933103 wrote:

Yesterday they reported 9 new cases, fewest since the pandemic start, although weekend mean fewer tests would be conducted and halloween + election date + terror attack might also cause people not to seek immediate medical advice on less pressing circumstances

But still, with such trend, is it indicating Japan is now entering herd immunity phase?

Also, from Tokyo government's coronavirus portal, starting from Yesterday they will allow people to walk in for vaccines.

Japan has enough recently vaccinated to squash the virus. O posted links upthread that note vaccines are great at limiting spread, but it turns out less effective when not new.

Japan is 72.81% freshly vaccinated.

If we assume Ro is mitigated by masks, say 70%.
Rt=Ro*Mask_eff*(1-Vac_eff_transmit*%vac)*(1-vac_prevent_inf*%vac)

If Ro=8 and for fresh vaccines the reduction in transmission is say 80%, the effectiveness is say 85%

%vac=72.81%
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... N~OWID_WRL



Rt=8*0.7*(1-.8*.7281)*(1-.85*.7281)=.89

As time goes on:
The effectiveness to preventing transmission will drop for the vaccines.

The effectiveness stopping infection will drop.

People will stop wearing masks.

So Japan is behaving a bit better than expected right now, but that could be isolating too. I would expect another wave once everyone lets down their guard unless many more are vaccinated.

There is a small increase in cases, but that could be a graphing error, anomaly, or a result of a more care free attitude.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... untry=~JPN

So the vaccinated are safe. Hopefully soon more kids vaccinated.

Lightsaber

If we assume R=0.89, and average transmission cycle of 3 days, then the number of new cases after 6 weeks should be 0.89^(6*7/3)=19.5% original case rate. But here we are seeing about 0.3% original case rate. So the reproduction factor in Tokyo should be much lower than that number.

Agreed. That implies the correlations on mask wearing work and that "fresh" vaccine is more effective than the numbers I used.

Hence boosters.

Fascinating video today on status in Colorado.

https://www.9news.com/video/news/health ... 9460201917

Big point at 14:47, due to delayed care on non-coronavirus patients, they are being hit with a surge in hospital demand for other reasons. We are seeing a double spike in hospital demand.

At 0:46 it notes sudden drop in available hospital beds in state.
1:26 really shows state is in critical state for hospital beds.

2:25 80% of coronavirus patients in hospital unvaccinated

13:27 notes under a hundred ICU beds available in that state. (getting scarce)

Lightsaber

Aaron Rodgers Tells Pat McAfee His Side Of Vaccine Situation
He talks mask, vaccines, etc.

https://youtu.be/K3jM13A7OEw

DIRECTFLT wrote:

Aaron Rodgers Tells Pat McAfee His Side Of Vaccine Situation
He talks mask, vaccines, etc.

https://youtu.be/K3jM13A7OEw

I have to get the popcorn to watch this one.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/19/eur ... -last-week

Despite vaccination rate, half of the world's cases - as well as death - are now at Europe.

Burnout is hitting hospital staff hard as the next wave hits in Colorado:
https://www.bakersfield.com/ap/national ... 171b4.html

Employees have left small-town health care facilities complaining of burnout, and now that vaccine mandates are in place, some have quit over being forced to receive the shot.

In one rural hospital, a pharmacist and a business office employee died of COVID-19 within a week of one another, leaving co-workers at Holyoke’s Melissa Memorial Hospital grief stricken and overworked as those positions remain unfilled.

I personally think many used the vaccine as an excuse to quit. My relative manages a coronavirus ward in Colorado and as stated "the Covid floor is rough." Today two nurses hit their limit. A junior nurse just walked out stating "I cannot take this anymore." A senior nurse started crying and was sent home to recuperate.

They also have a problem with patients being nasty. I think a big reason Colorado passed a law allowing their hospitals to turn away patients as so many are trouble in the coronavirus wards:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/co ... e-n1283161

Lightsaber

Some links noting the hostility the medical profession is now getting:
Nurses change out of scrubs before grocery shopping because confronted:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

Hostility in ICUs:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... NewsSearch

As the delta variant rages, COVID-19 patients are younger and more hostile, many believing they are part of an evil conspiracy theory in which doctors and hospitals, not the coronavirus, kill people.


If you are a subscriber, it goes more into the hostility (I'm not, I just cannot find many links on this problem, but teaser links note it is the unvaccinated). Every medical professional I know working coronavirus has commented that instead of before, being treated like heros, there is hostility.

Is it any surprise they are burning out and leaving the hospitals?

Hint: If you are hostile in the ER, you're not being sent up to the wards.

While this is newer in the USA, this hostility towards medical personnel with coronavirus isn't new.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/05/ ... us-stigma/

Lightsaber

Ps late edit: 1 in 48 in Colorado have Covid19.

https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/1-in- ... orado/amp/

It also notes modeling shows 62% have immunity through vaccine or prior exposure. When I look at data, 61% are vaccinated (cases are trending per the model).

lightsaber wrote:

Fascinating video today on status in Colorado.

https://www.9news.com/video/news/health ... 9460201917

Big point at 14:47, due to delayed care on non-coronavirus patients, they are being hit with a surge in hospital demand for other reasons. We are seeing a double spike in hospital demand.

At 0:46 it notes sudden drop in available hospital beds in state.
1:26 really shows state is in critical state for hospital beds.

2:25 80% of coronavirus patients in hospital unvaccinated

13:27 notes under a hundred ICU beds available in that state. (getting scarce)

Lightsaber

I find your observations on the situation in Colorado interesting as a comparison to our situation here in NZ.
Our population is similar, 5.1million compared to 5.8 million, our land areas are even more similar, about 270000km2 and I imagine overall comparitive living standards similar.
Our paths through the epidemic have so far been very different, but are probably now rapidly converging.
Until this past August we had managed to keep covid very largely out of our community but a delta outbreak then was just too far advanced before being discovered to be able to extinguished.
Because of vaccine supply issues, since resolved, the outbreak started when we were very largely unvaccinated and with near zero immunity from previous infection.
A massive vaccination effort has since seen levels rise to 75% one dose, and 66% two doses, of the entire population, with age 12+ being eligible since the beginning of September.
In spite of this, and continuing lockdown in Auckland where the outbreak is almost completly contained, cases here are still doubling every 14 days with some relaxation of controls (opening general retail) due in just over two days, and a massive further relaxation scheduled at the end of the month a political imperative for our Christmas summer holiday season.
So far the covid demands on our hospitals is modest, around 5 cases in ICU/HDU and deaths minimal.
The increased daily cases though is degrading contact tracing performance.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

Toenga - interesting comparison. And I note even with the best of intentions, execution, and sensible scientific protocols this pandemic is hard to deal with. Again I recommend The Psychology of Pandemics. It discusses public health, rumors, conspiracy, denial you name it. It would be helpful for those caught in the maelstrom of anger to understand where all that hostility comes from.

https://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Pande ... 9003&psc=1

Written and sent to publisher during the year before Covid hit.

A big thanks to Toenga for the perspective.

I didn't know about that Psychology of Pandemics book. I just bought it (on Kindle). It should, prove interesting.

Lightsaber