With 97 % of the votes in , it looks like Hobbs will win Az. https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/resul ... a/governor
There are 2.5 milion votes in, with only probably 75,000 outstanding
There is a +20 thousand vote differential between Hobbs and Lake.,
even if it goes 60% 40% those last 75K votes, there isn't enough votes for Lake.
A quick search shows MSNBC and NBC are calling for Hobbs, but i expect others will hold out longer for another vote tally.
//edit CNN just called it at 9:15 EDThttps://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/ ... index.html
At the end, FiveThirtyEight got quite a few of the predictions wrong for this election cycle. It really goes to show you just how topsy-turvy elections have become.
Newt Gingrich going on Hannity was not the end-all-be-all the GOP was hoping for.
The polls did miss a lot, but they were within a pretty close margin of error. Even Nate said it on his blogs before the election.
Bliue Natehttps://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... ion-night/
Bleu: To be fair, it’s not just you. It’s everybody. You and me and everyone in the media. Everybody is terrified of predicting that anything good happens for Democrats, having a replay of 2016 and looking foolish again.
I think Nate hit it on the head here.
Look, it’s not a great situation. As America gets more partisan, and trust in institutions erodes, there are a lot of downstream, negative consequences for pollsters. To start with, most people basically don’t answer phone calls from unknown numbers anymore. So people who do answer polls are weird in some sense, and they may not be representative of the electorate. You used to be able to default to more of a gold standard in polling — it was expensive, but you could do it. Now, there are a lot more choices to make. On top of that, trust in the media is about as low as it’s ever been. Does that make pollsters more likely to stick with the herd instead of publishing numbers that could cause them a lot of grief? Maybe, but I’m not going to make too many assumptions about that until Tuesday.
I think this poses some interesting issues going forward in regards to polling and self inflating egos pushing the drive towards policy.
We learned that the Democrats were able to exploit gerrymandered districts to get favorable matchups.
In a year where conventional logic assumed that economy/crime should have been a slam dunk winner, it was not. I always assumed the issue was going to come down to peoples rights being taken away with CRT and Aboriton vs the economy and crime. I just didn't imagine that the GOP had swallowed so much of their own poison pill, that they never really saw the issues with personal rights drving voting. Now inflation is easing, and people see a path forward for he economy under Biden, it may hurt Walker in Georgia quite a bit more. Espcially if Trump and his toxicity do start a campaign today.
What does this mean for policy and positions going forward though? The GOP now has a problem. They can't win on the economy, and their own brand toxicity is killing thier growth with the younger voters.
How do they solve this moving into 2024 where Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Ron Desants, and Greg Abbott all want a shot?