Its obvious that Southwest are taking PHL very seriously as 4-6 new B 737-700s will be based there.

US AIR you better watch out  

As for what routes...well I would first recommend nonstop routes to all of their main hubs in Midway, BWI, Dallas Love Field, PHX, Vegas, Nashville, Florida, LAX and San Diego.

Due to the increased range of the B 737-700, trans con flights are easily flyable. US AIR has already announced that this is an assualt on their premier hub. They better straighten out their act and match WNs fares and level of service otherwise they will lose a massive share of pax to WN especially if WN has big growth plans in store for PHL.

Well, they can't fly to Love...but Houston-Hobby has definitely possibilities.

This is definitely shocking to me, but I don't see Southwest surviving in PHL. If I remember correctly, US Airways is in charge of the movement between terminal A to terminal E, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Southwest getting delayed like crazy. Anyways although I somewhat like the idea of seeing a new airline at PHL, I hope US Airways knocks them right out of PHL within a couple of months. Also with US Airways switching some mainline aircraft with RJ's I can see them lowering fares.... Well I wish the best to US Airways and I will continue flying US even if it means paying a bit extra.  

UsAir330, may the better airline win.

I was just thinking about Southwest a couple days ago and I wondered why they didn't fly into PHL. I think they have a great looking c/s and would love to see some wingletted 73Gs here. I must admit it though... I am on US Airways' side here, along with USAirA330. It must be the devotion to the hometown airline talking but I hope US beats Southwest in PHL.

I certainly do not think most people will continue flying US Airways even if it costs a little extra. No one in their right mind would do that, unless they had a frequent flyer account, in which case it probably wouldn't be more expensive.

Nick

Can we say Crapshoot?!??!????!

That's for sure, WN is rolling the dice bigtime. PHL is a horrible airport(ATC wise at least) and with BWI not all that far away, it looks like like a US/WN fight to the finish!

Mike

The biggest factor is that Southwest has the financial strength to win at PHL, if US Airways just slashes fares to compete then they are just hurting themselves.

What do you think will happen first..

Southwest pulls out of PHL

or

US Airways goes out of business.

WN has not pulled out of many markets, and US Airways is still in a poor financial situation which was not looking to get better anytime soon. Southwest's entrance into US Airway's main market will only exasperate US Airway's situation, which is probably a big reason why WN decided to go into PHL.

US Airways going out of business of course...IMO this is the knockout blow to US...Im really interested to see what WN has in store for PHL though, maybe its more appropriate to wait until December and speculate then??

Greg

US going outta biz is far fetched...yes damage will be done. But US is firmly entrenched at PHL and just them showing isn't gonna send everyone running and screaming for cover. BUT had B6 gone into ATL the same way (with guns blazing)..they might still be there today!

US knows LUV is comin' and ain't leavin'! But it will serve notice that this is their turf and a fight is gonna be made over every pax. Regardless...as F9 co-exist with DL, US will do so with LUV. Plus US's international ops there is a what's gonna really save their bacon. The real battle will be over the O/D and regional runs. However it'll be a vitual battle over true efficiency of the 737 vs A319s/A320s. Luckily, for US they can go either way.

BN747

WN has never pulled out of an airport because the competition was too fierce. In most cases, WN *is* the competition.

The reality is that five years from now (or possibly quite sooner) all you folks who lament TWA's demise will likely be lamenting US Airways' demise.

wnfan, please read reply #53,,,,,,,AMTRAK ran wn out of the isp-pvd route according to wn, wn was forced out due to the train, at least they stuck to the orig model of competing against ground transportation,and lost. let wn run some west coast routes, you and i both know that us will match the west coast flts, give me a 321/757 to cali with ife vs a 737-700 and i will take us in a heart beat,,,,loyaty goes only so far...locals know or will know thru atc delays and cramped seats to las/lax that the us product is better

Behranjee - WN cannot go to DAL from PHL because of the Wright Amendment. I envision the 14 flights a day like this:

3 a day to MCO
2 a day to TPA
3 a day to MDW
2 a day to PHX
2 a day to PVD
1 a day through MCI to west coast(take your pick)
1 a day through STL to west coast(take your pick)

It will be interesting to see how ATA holds their ground if SWA flies PHL-MDW. Their gates in PHL will be right next to each other. It will also be interesting how Airtran reacts to SWA going after MCO and TPA. MCO has been a route that Airtran has had 3/4 flights for a while.

It will be interesting to see the WN-FL competition scenario.
The US-WN competition has allready been played out once in BWI, and
US lost hands down. US has completely lost out on their acquisition of PSA--(there is not 1 set of city pairs left) It is interesting how a former bankrupt carrier such as US who lost almost $90mil this last quarter, VS a carrier with a war chest like WN in a few select markets can have an overall effect on the entire US operation.

It's interesting in BWI, Airtran has really steered clear of flying routes that directly compete with Southwest. But now it looks like Southwest could be starting routes to directly compete with Airtran.

Here are a few quotes from the SWA CEO in the Philly Inquirer

When asked if he would reduce service at BWI he answered
"More likely Southwest would increase its flights here to similar levels of BWI over several years"

Also he said his decision to come to PHL was not influenced by concern about JetBlue.

Some interesting quote there. If SWA was really going after Jetblue than why Philly. Jetblue has expressed NO interest in PHL and i doubt they will ever serve PHL.

I wonder if, in a strange twist, this bodes well for Pittsburgh. USAirways seemingly was in the process of greatly reducing PIT while boosting PHL. Now, perhaps USAirways will redouble their efforts at PIT, knowing that a potential defeat looms on the horizion for them at PHL. I know that PIT airport officials were pulling out all the stops to 'keep' USAirways; I wonder now if those same airport officials feel as though they now have USAirways by the 'short hairs' now?

As an aside, if WN is likely to run nonstop PHL-PVD, they'll most assuredly run PHL-MHT as well.

Somehow I doubt WN will tackle the FL market at first... my bets will be on BWI, MDW and possibly weekend LAS for sure; either STL and/or BNA and maybe PVD/MHT/PHX...

WN has little affect on NW's operations at DTW... in fact, NW frequently opts no to match WN's sale/internet fares ex-DTW and thus the rest of the network carriers follow NW's lead in the market. WN was unable to capitalize on DTW even during the "NorthWorst days" of the late 1990s, when NW operated from a dump and their corporate clients were extremely dissatisfied...

My point is that US and WN can peacefully coexist alongside each other at PHL - there's no reason to think that US will start slashing flights. PHL and its international flights anchor the US network, after all...

Part of US trying to compete against WN is adding frequency and flights. Those planes are going to have to come from somewhere and my best bet is they come from PIT. US needs to focus on PHL more than ever and try to keep it, not run away and already start focusing on PIT. They should drop flights in PIT and add them in PHL

I agree with what ChrisNH said about PHL-MHT being a possibility. If there's enough demand right now to have 8-10 flights a day from MHT to BWI (because that's about how many flights there are), then there's got to be at least enough demand for one flight from PHL to MHT. People like me are currently driving up from BWI to the PHL area since it's about $300 cheaper.

Nick

As much as I appreciate lower fares at PHL, I hope southwest does not destroy US AIrways' feed for its transatlantic flights . . . US Airways is really the only reason that PHL is a major international airport.

I find it hard to believe that WN would just destroy US in PHL. It seems as though that is what alot of people here wants. But WN would cater a lot for the leisure traveller. US would still have its business travellers. The FF benefits.

US has a strong Trans Atlantic presence out of PHL. WN would not be competing with that. US has tons of flights to the caribbean and central american out PHL, WN won't be competing with that.

Added to the fact that the domestic services that US does have out ex PHL, I am sure that they woudl have matching fares with WN pressence. I dont think WN would bring about the demise at PHL. PHL and BWI are two differnt airports and almost serve very different markets.

US should be fine

Keep in mind many of the same folks who drive to BWI for WN, now just won't have to drive as far.

I laugh at the people here in State College who will drive 3-4 hours to BWI just to catch a $120 r/t on WN, when in fact they could fly right out of State College and get the same flight for $230. Is it really worth 6 hours of driving to save $120 on airfare??? Factor in the time, price of gas, tolls, and airport parking at BWI, I really don't see the savings. I was talking about WN entering PHL to some people around here yesterday, they think its great that they will be able to go out of PHL now. My point being, with advanced planning, WN is NOT always the cheapest method.

WN at DTW is a whole different situation. Spirit really has the dominate LCC routes, they cover the Florida routes and also routes to select major markets. WN actually I believe either has equal or less flights out of DTW than the used to a few years ago.

and thats the point with WN. (advanced planning) It won't cost you $970.00 to go to San Antonio if you don't buy the ticket 24 days in advance. You can decide on Thursday to go out on Friday, and you know it will cost a little more, but not $970.00, so you are free to move about the country and not be exposed to all those rules that US will impose

ChrisNH,
Actually the PIT Airport Authority has been emphatic in it's stance toward US...that it will not 'give away' PIT just for the sake of US. That position is the correct position to assume IMO. The facility bonds used to fund that terminal complex represent quite a financial albatross to PIT. US was the reason for the facility. Does/should PIT set precedent and relax bond covenants and possibly roil airport finance for years to come?
There have been a slew of tax proposals that, thus far, haven't been received well by the State of PA. Nor should they be. Why tax the populace for the mismanagement of a single private enterprise? And that comment is in no way mean't as bias against US.
As far as moving PHL flightsto PIT...I don't think it'll happen. Granted US may derive higher yields at PIT, especially once WN gets a foothold at PHL. However, the PHL market is decidely larger than PIT. PIT O/D for int'l (Europe/Caribbean) has to be miniscule vs. PHL. The catchment area is significantly larger. Per capita income/spending, tourism, and business activity is probably much greater...
US will have to stick it out and fight at PHL.

Posted by Uadc8contrail

wnfan, please read reply #53,,,,,,,AMTRAK ran wn out of the isp-pvd route according to wn, wn was forced out due to the train, at least they stuck to the orig model of competing against ground transportation,and lost. let wn run some west coast routes, you and i both know that us will match the west coast flts, give me a 321/757 to cali with ife vs a 737-700 and i will take us in a heart beat,,,,loyaty goes only so far...locals know or will know thru atc delays and cramped seats to las/lax that the us product is better

Uadc8contrail,

Could you provide a link to the Southwest statement that they dropped the ISP-PVD run because of competition from Amtrak? It hardly seems likely, as there is a large body of water between the two airports (Long Island Sound) and train service would require at least several hours.

Andy my original post indicated that WN has never dropped servicing an airport entirely due to competition, not a particular run. People in this thread have predicted Southwest pulling out of PHL in failure, and I'm saying that's never happened and never will.

at BWI, the existing US route network and overall airport capacity enabled WN to compete with US on most of its routes, eventually driving them out. i think its different in PHL, as others have mentioned.

for one, there is not as much gate space/capacity available for limitless WN growth. also, while WN will definitely compete with many of US' routes and force lower fares, WN wont be going head to head on the transatlantic routes, the massive caribbean service, and the significant feeder service into both of those. that's a big part of the PHL US hub, i why i just dont see US completely folding there.

" WN wont be going head to head on the transatlantic routes, the massive caribbean service, and the significant feeder service into both of those. that's a big part of the PHL US hub, i why i just dont see US completely folding there"

If US Airways is still losing money now after lowering there Costs in bankruptcy, what makes people think they can become profitable next year after WN starts competiting with them at PHL.

"When asked if he would reduce service at BWI he answered
"More likely Southwest would increase its flights here to similar levels of BWI over several years""

That says it all right there, they are not going in "halfway" or looking to coexist with US Airways.

Alright, now that I'm getting over the initial shock of the WN announcement, I thought I'd add my input as a Philadelphian.

WN will definately have a hard time managing with the horrible ground delays at PHL. As a spotter its always fun watching the 25 plane line that forms during the main departure banks. I think I've clocked the time for the last plane in line at 40 minutes from pushback to takeoff once.

Landings on the other hand aren't usually a problem here (at least when the 27s are in use). WN can land on 27R, exit on the high speed taxiway K4 and do the patented WN "fast taxi" on down to terminal E in 5 minutes flat. I'm going to have to agree with Greg that WN could use 27R for departures. I don't think it would actually be that hard to splice in a stray WN departure or two with the arrivals. However, I don't know if ATC would like giving them special treatment.

When the weather goes south and they switch to the 9s, then WN is definately SOL. All the 9L departures get crammed on to Taxiway K. Besides that, 9L departures must be halted to allow some 17/35 and 8 departures to get out every once in while. At the same time, 9R arrivals are backing up between runways trying to get across 9L.

The only possible alternative for WN would be to schedule all their departures between the main flight banks ie: 10AM to Noon, 1:15 to 2:00PM, 3:15 to 3:45 PM). That would probably throw off connecting pax, though. All in all, WN is going to have it rough at PHL.

Joe Wagner

There won't be many connecting passengers on WN out of PHL, at first. Most traffic will be O&D.

Of course they are. They took the sissy role and waited to see how ATA did in Philly. Seeing our amazing success, they've decided to get in on the market. Kind of like how Coke took a bold move with Vanilla Coke and succeeded so PEPSI decided to get in on it too. Just don't forget, ATA did it before SWA.

stt757

"If US Airways is still losing money now after lowering there Costs in bankruptcy, what makes people think they can become profitable next year after WN starts competiting with them at PHL."


...because i dont think that the routes WN will compete with US on, starting with only 14 flights a day, constitute the bulk of the PHL operations and profitability. sure, WN may be able to snag some or all of the passengers on an O&D route like BDL-PHL, but not for those folks going BDL-PHL-STT or RSW-PHL-LGW, for example. plus, i would think that there are a lot of O&D passengers - especially FF travellers - who will still want to stick with US for the routes they will still maintain thru PHL that WN will not.

Wagz,

Good to see you. I agree 100%. The biggest thing WN has to worry about is runway congestion. Don't forget even in rain like we had Sunday and Monday PHL was putting planes on holding patterns of 40 minor more just to land. Two UA flights from ORD had to divert to IAD and BWI respectivly to refuel.

For US to fight back against WN all they have to do is keep the traffic into PHL going. With US enter Star PHL has become VERY important to US. They should BUILD PHL up rather than pull out. With feed from partner airlines like UA and LH now and the rest of Star just before WN arrives, this situation could not be more differnt that th US WN battle for BWI.

WN pulled out of SFO, not somuch because UA Shuttle beat them but because UA shutlle had 35 flights a day to LAX alone. Volume in a congested airport drives WN away.

One other note WN's presence usually causes UA to increase the gauge they use to compete. Will UA Bring back widebodies to PHL? We finally got 2 757"s on our afternoon SFO trips.

UALPHLCS : good to hear we got some UA 757's back. Could be interesting if WN flies MDW-PHL, we may see some UA widebodies in PHL.

I aggree US should realize that PHL is a prime location now with UA feed and Star feed next spring. US needs to take advantage of PHL and continue to increase flights.

Can the gates UA has accomodate a widebody?

Nick

UALPHLCS:
The issue with ATC flow during weather delays is very credible. I, being a former UA employee in the LAX area, remember vividly the delays in the Calif. corridor during Shuttle's heyday. Winter 2000, I recall there being 30+ days of rain at SFO. You can imagine what a mess that created.
On the assumption that delays/ATC would normally dissuade WN service to an airport, makes you wonder what WN saw with PHL that would cause them to forsake their SFO experience.
I'm guessing WN really crunched the numbers and smelled (some) blood!

Let the battles begin......

US grab your guns... Hope the Caribbean saves you!

AASTEW

>>>WN pulled out of SFO, not somuch because UA Shuttle beat them but because UA shutlle had 35 flights a day to LAX alone

Actually, the main reason SWA pulled out of SFO was the ATC delay situation at SFO, caused by a combination of runways that were too close together for parallel ILS or simultaneous ILS approaches, and frequent reduced ceilings/visibilities that precluded visual approaches and necessitated the ILSes. When the weather went below 2500-5, they came off the visuals to 28L and 28R, and shot the ILS to 28R, i.e. a single-runway operation. The delays ensued.

One way around these kind of delays to to cancel some of your airline's flights and "slot swap" to reduce the delays on the flights you -are- going to operate. This is best accomplished when you have alot of flights into an airport, and SWA was at a disadvantage here when compared to the numbers of UA and UA Express flights. Often, UA Express flights would get cancelled to free up slots for mainline UA flights.

In the absence of being able to run an effective slot swap program when delays occurred, SWA dropped SFO to keep the ATC delays from impacting the rest of their system. They did the same thing at the old DEN Stapleton, because the runways there were also too close together for use in IMC conditions.

How many banks does US Airways have at PHL?

Nick...

UA used to fly DC-10's and 767's to PHL in the early 90's into Term D, however I dunno if widebodies could fit now due to the hammerhead extension on D....perhaps a 762 could, I think anything larger might be a bit tight???

Greg

US ties up all of 'B' and 'C' as well as a lot of 'A'. That leaves 'D' and 'E' for the others. 'F' is all regional jets and turbo props.. mostly all US Express..

Nick...UA used to fly DC-10's and 767's to PHL in the early 90's into Term D, however I dunno if widebodies could fit now due to the hammerhead extension on D....perhaps a 762 could, I think anything larger might be a bit tight??? Greg

A diagram of the extended Concourse D that I printed off of the PHL website a few months ago showed the outline of a 777 fitting along the east side of the hammerhead. I think the diagram is a page in the airport's competition plan which you can download as a pdf file.

Thanks OPNLguy for clearing the air about Southwest's withdrawal from SFO and DEN, you beat me to it. Southwest certainly wasn't "chased" from these airports by United or any other airline. As you note, bad runway layouts and Mother Nature were the problem. In the past couple of years, Southwest also withdrew from Beaumont/ Port Arthur, TX, due to the market's apparent inability to fill enough planes.

On the assumption that delays/ATC would normally dissuade WN service to an airport, makes you wonder what WN saw with PHL that would cause them to forsake their SFO experience. I'm guessing WN really crunched the numbers and smelled (some) blood

That's what I figure, Aaway. UAPHLCS is right about the kinds of delays that can snarl PHL; WN must smell a lot of gold there.

Jim

glad to see that PHL is getting WN....however i'd have much rather seen WN go to MSP! i'm so tired of NW dominance at MSP that it makes me sick. please Southwest...consider MSP in the future!!

>>>Thanks OPNLguy for clearing the air about Southwest's withdrawal from SFO and DEN, you beat me to it.

No problem.  

SWA has pulled out of 4 airports in its history...

BPT (low loads, as you mentioned)

DEN (ATC delays at the old Stapleton)

DET (City's promises of airport/runway improvements unkept)

SFO (ATC delays)

Out of the 4, 3 were operationally-related. Not bad in 32 years....

PHL will see some ATC delays, but they won't be as bad as SFO was...

"With US enter Star PHL has become VERY important to US. They should BUILD PHL up rather than pull out. With feed from partner airlines like UA and LH now and the rest of Star just before WN arrives, this situation could not be more differnt that th US WN battle for BWI."

I disagree, IAD is a stronger market for International travel and already is a UAL hub (ACA not withstanding), add the fact that there's no WN at IAD. I think if push comes to shove (and US/UAL decide to consolidate) PHL would be out in favor of IAD (IMO).

Also people keep talking about weather etc..

Southwest flies to Buffalo, Seattle, Portland, Detroit, Cleveland, Albany etc..

I don't think weather is the biggest factor in their decisions, whether they can make money and dominate is the key factor. Southwest has been in business 32 years, of which they have had 30 profitable years of operation.

OPNLguy that's my whole point. Wn's Achillies Heel is that they won't stand for ATC delays. UA was the dominant carrier in SFO they OVER scheduled SFO. This snarled operations for WN. That may or maynot have been the reason UA did it, but it worked anyway. US being the dominant carrier in PHL could potentialy do the same thing. PHL's runway situation is as bad as SFO's maybe worse in the winter, when deicing delays snarl traffic for over an hour on the taxiway.

Wagz had a good rundown of the challeges WN faces in PHL operationally. US only hope is to capitalize on thier European and Caribbean flights and feed from Star. These are advantages US did not have in its fight to maintain BWI.

As for WN being "chased" out When your the big carrier in a city like SFO UA cold take the delays on UA Shuttle. Your right to say that WN left becasue of ATC but are we sure that the ATC problem wasn't exacerbated by UA choking the taxiways and runways in SFO and DEN to cause those problems for WN? Intentionally or not it works.

"Southwest move may mean adios for airline

Analysts: US Airways must slash costs more if it hopes to survive

Thursday, October 30, 2003

Frank Reeves, Post-Gazette Staff Writer

When Southwest Airlines Chairman Herb Kelleher announced this week that his discount airline planned to attack US Airways on its turf in Philadelphia, he tried to be polite.

But when pressed by a reporter, Kelleher acknowledged that US Airways' weak financial condition made it a tempting target -- so tempting that the Dallas-based airline broke with its usual strategy of avoiding congested airports and not taking on major carriers in their hubs.

"It would be unfair to say that we didn't take [US Airways' shaky financial condition] into account" when deciding to begin service in the spring in Philadelphia, Kelleher said.

Though he was quick to add that the nation's fourth largest metropolitan area had long been in the discount carrier's sights. "It's a very high priced market," which hasn't been developed to its potential, Kelleher said -- a statement underscored by the fact that despite its large population, Philadelphia's airport accounts is only the nation's 18th-busiest.

The boldness of Southwest's decision didn't go unnoticed by some industry analysts, who saw it as a sign of US Airways' vulnerability.

"There is definitely blood in the water," said analyst Ray Neidl of Blaylock & Partners in New York, comparing US Airways to a wounded animal that attracts sharks. "Southwest looked at US Airways' cost structure, realized it wasn't making money even after reorganization under bankruptcy, and decided that it was now to time to move before another low-cost carrier moved in.''

Kevin Mitchell, chairman of the Radnor, Pa.-based Business Travel Coalition, said that if he were US Airways management, he would find it most unsettling that Southwest apparently "concluded that US Airways might not be around very long. And if US Airways went under, Southwest would own Philadelphia before another low-cost carrier came in."

Neidl said US Airways Chief Executive Officer David Siegel did a good job obtaining cost-savings concessions during bankruptcy reorganization. "But the revenues aren't coming back as fast as many thought. Siegel has got to get his [costs] down even more or go to a different business model," Neidl said. One option might be for US Airways to become a strong regional airline.

It is similar to the message Siegel's been preaching at every turn.

He again warned this week that low-cost carriers are "the toughest competitive challenge" US Airways and other a major carriers have ever faced. These weren't idle words. When Southwest began service at Baltimore-Washington International Airport in the 1990s, US Airways was the dominant carrier. Now it ranks a distant No. 3, having been easily supplanted by Southwest.

To fend off challenges from Southwest and other low-cost carriers, US Airways must reduce its cost structure, Siegel said. Even US Airways' code-sharing alliances and far-flung network won't enable it to compete with the discount airlines unless it can get costs low enough that what it charges for tickets is competitive with what the low-cost airlines charge.

At the core of the effort, as has been the case for more than a decade, are labor costs.

But if Siegel intends to seek more concessions from the airline's unionized workers, it is likely to be a hard sell. US Airways employees, who last year agreed to $1 billion in annual wage and benefit cuts, appear to be in no mood to give any more.

"We've certainly stepped up to the plate. Our concessions alone have taken the company out of bankruptcy," said Jack Stephan, spokesman for the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA). "The ALPA well of concessions has dried up."

In two rounds of negotiations, US Airways' unionized pilots agreed to about $566 million in annual concession and allowed the airline to terminate the pilots' pension plan and replace it with a less generous one.

Stephan said the pilots are waiting to see whether Siegel and his "management team can a run an airline and not just say, 'We've got to take more from employees.' "

William Lauer, chairman of Tarentum-based Allegheny Capital Management, which previously had invested in US Airways, said that the airline and its unions "are heading into another round of negotiations."

And Mitchell, of the Business Travel Coalition, said the airline's need to cut costs and employees' resistance to further concessions "portends for a lot of pain and struggle over the next year. It guarantees that US Airways goes into a second round of bankruptcy."

If the airline again files for Chapter 11 protection, it would give it broad authority to abrogate existing union contracts and impose new work rules and salary cuts on its employees.

Still, while some analysts seem ready to concede that Southwest will quickly supplant US Airways as the dominant carrier in Philadelphia, Lauer isn't that pessimistic. He said Southwest faces some difficult challenges in Philadelphia.

The Southwest strategy relies on its ability to turn around flights quickly on its point-to-point routes. This may prove difficult at Philadelphia International Airport, which despite a decline in air traffic since Sept.. 11, still is congested because "there's not enough launch and landing space," Lauer said."