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na
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Fri Oct 19, 2012 3:27 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 40):
My guess is the 4 WB models will be A333, A3510, 748, A380, with the A333 eventually replaced by A359's.

I dont think so. The A343s will be replaced before the A346s, and the A3510 is too big for that.

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 47):
A380s replace B744s
B748s replace A346s
A3510s replace A343s
B7810s replace A333s.

If LH as a group of airlines wants 4 longhaul types in the longer future then doesnt the A359 make more sense than the A3510?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 49):
Short/mid-term I see 744s replaced by 748s.

Expect the younger 744s to remain in the fleet for the rest of the decade.
 
ytz
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Fri Oct 19, 2012 3:43 pm

Quoting na (Reply 50):
I dont think so. The A343s will be replaced before the A346s, and the A3510 is too big for that.

Why? Given the upgauging trend, it would seem to follow that the 343s will be replaced by something slightly bigger: the A3510. After all, the A3510 is still slighlty smaller than the A346 if I'm not mistaken.

Quoting na (Reply 50):
If LH as a group of airlines wants 4 longhaul types in the longer future then doesnt the A359 make more sense than the A3510?

Only if LH can't fill the seats. Otherwise, it would make sense to me go for the additional range and capacity that the A3510 offers.

The wildcard, I think, is whether LH considers it acceptable to not have anything with less than 300 seats (3-class OEM spec) for the group. If that's acceptable than the lineup will be B7810, A3510, B748, A380. If they need a smaller bird for OS, LX and SN, then I foresee the lineup being B788/B789, B7810, B748, A380. It all hinges on how much they want to upgauge across the board. I could even see a mix like B789, A3510, B748, A380.

What will be really interesting is to see how they manage configurations across all those airlines.
 
columba
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Fri Oct 19, 2012 3:44 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 49):
The question I have, is when do the A346s start leaving?   

The next aircraft that will be replaced are the A343s with either the 787 or the A350.
Then the A346s might be on the agenda but I guess LH will keep them for quite a while as they will have very little resale value. Lufthansa might fly them till they are at the end of their life span or become uneconomic to operate.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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Stitch
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:09 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 51):
Given the upgauging trend, it would seem to follow that the 343s will be replaced by something slightly bigger: the A3510.

The A350-900 is slightly bigger than the A340-300.

The A350-1000 is significantly bigger than the A340-300 - trending close to the A340-600 in capacity.
 
ytz
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:24 pm

If they are going to induct the A359, then I really wonder if they'll got for the 7810. It might be more efficient for TATL and medium haul. But is it worth inducting another type? So maybe 789/359/748/388?

It's fun to guess!

I find it more intriguing though, that they'd consider common configurations across the company. Just compare the different 333 configurations between SN, LX and LH or the 343 configs within LH itself and at LX. It will be an interesting exercise to pursue a common config. I would think that the density they agree upon may well decide the aircraft type.
 
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Stitch
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:32 pm

I think they key is whether the four types include the 747-8 and A380-800 or if they are four types in addition to the 747-8 and A380-800.

If they are only adding two new types, then I think the A350-900 and 787-10 make the most sense. The A350-900 can handle the current A340-300 missions and the 787-10 can handle the A330-300 missions (and then some).

The 787-9 could handle the A340-300 missions, as well, but the A350-900 does allow additional capacity thanks to it's extra length.
 
ytz
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:50 pm

Stitch,

Agreed. But I am wondering about SN and OS. They do run smaller aircraft. For SN, going from 332 to 359 might not be a big jump. But for OS, from a 763 to a 359 would be big. Perhaps, OS will scale back long haul?

Another interesting issue is the fact that LH and LX have 3-class configs, while OS and SN have 2-class configs. That too, might complicate aircraft buying. Then again, maybe the upgauge would simply be to add F to the latter two.
 
planemaker
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Fri Oct 19, 2012 6:21 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
But per the article, this fleet simplification plan is for the entire LH Group of airlines, not just LH itself.

I wouldn't refer to the AirInsight interview other than for historical interest of what was said back then. After all, the interview with Nico Buchholz, in aviation terms, is stale... it will be 2 years old come January.

Quoting ytz (Reply 20):
1) For narrowbodies this allows the most efficient aircraft in each size class. And as fuel prices keep going up

There is the very real possibility that fuel prices may not only NOT keep going up but will, in fact, very possibly decrease... by a significant margin.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Fri Oct 19, 2012 6:40 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 36):
There is no difference from the A319 to the A321 and 736-739 in anything

Bzzt, The 736 and 73G have quite a few differences to the 738, and 739. There is a reason the aftermarket offers kits to put 738 brakes and wheels on 73G, it adds a good bit of wieght but if you only have a few of the smaller plane, you can pay for it by reducing spares cost. I don't know the changes, but clearly something different exists in the wings too as the BBJ1 (737-700 size) uses a "800" wing, as does the 737-700ER. Then you get into the 739ER. Optional kits for the various models, sky interior, etc. You can have two 737NG with massive parts incompatiblity if you are not careful. While I haven't researched it, I'd assume the same issues exist on Airbus' side where optimization trumps commonality.

Back to the topic, While I cheer for them reducing thier fleet types, I don't think they will ever get to 4/4. By the time they finish dumping 100% of the older types and have thier 4 new types in each class, They will be aquiring the next generation of both narrow and widebodies. So they will continue to have lots of subtypes even with this focus on fleet simplification.
 
ferpe
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Sat Oct 20, 2012 6:28 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 55):
If they are only adding two new types, then I think the A350-900 and 787-10 make the most sense. The A350-900 can handle the current A340-300 missions and the 787-10 can handle the A330-300 missions (and then some).

We shall remember that a -10 of today which is labeled as a 333 replacement is flying the ranges of the 340-300E of yesterday. I have made 2 charts with all the frames in the discussion, I do not know which versions LH group flies but have taken a 233t version of the 333, a 275t version of 340-300E and a 368t version of the 340-600. Others chip in if these are reasonably representative of the frames that should be replaced. I have divided it into 2 charts, around 300 seats and above otherwise it would be to busy:

http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm262/ferpe_bucket/PRchart-9-10-900-300-300E.jpg

http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm262/ferpe_bucket/PRchart-10-900-1000-600.jpg

These are the frames at spec OEW, to find the realistic loadpoints assume pax at 0.1t each and add some 10t for a realistic cabin, catering etc and tare weights of LD3s. So if you start at some 40t +-5t those are the right areas to look at dependent on load factor. Then one can add some numbers of LD3s at 0.5t each if one want, about 15-20 positions goes to bags.

As can be seen there will not be many routes that a 787-10 can not fly, it is within 1 hour endurance of replacing the 340-300E even on it's longest routes, this is the hour that UH wants that Boeing adds   . We can also see that the true replacement for the 340-600 is the 350-1000, a 748i suplants the 340-600 but it has a trip cost disadvantage to the 350-1000, for an ESAD trip of 7000nm the 748i burns 144t and the 350-1000 91t, quite a difference and abuse penalty for the 748i, it is even worse then the 340-600 at 125t. How come, well the 748i has an OEW north of 215t, the 350-1000 some 153t and the 340-600 around 180t.

[Edited 2012-10-20 00:06:56]
Non French in France
 
ferpe
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Sat Oct 20, 2012 6:50 am

And here the chart for the less then 300 seats ( the 332 at 233t and the -300ER at 187t, further this is a 788 at 115t spec OEW which is in the ballpark once LH group gets them ) :

http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm262/ferpe_bucket/PRchart-8-200-300ER.jpg

Once again, look at some 35t +-5t for checking the area of interest.
Non French in France
 
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Stitch
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Sat Oct 20, 2012 3:24 pm

The 747-8 is a heavy plane, but it has a mammoth structural payload rating to compensate - 82t (7t more than the A340-600 and perhaps 15t higher than the A350-1000 based on the June 2011 Payload-Range chart published by Airbus).

LH's new First Class and Business Class hard product looks heavier than the older product, so having additional lift could be an advantage.

What really makes me believe that LH is at least considering the 747-8 as an A340-600 replacement is that they ordered 20 airframes along with 20 options. LH's historical 747-400 fleet was 30, so with 17 A380-800s on order (and 3 options), that meant LH needed only 10-13 747-8's to complete the replacement. That leaves sufficient orders and options to more than cover the entire A340-600 fleet.
 
columba
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Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Sat Oct 20, 2012 4:26 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 61):
What really makes me believe that LH is at least considering the 747-8 as an A340-600 replacement is that they ordered 20 airframes along with 20 options. LH's historical 747-400 fleet was 30, so with 17 A380-800s on order (and 3 options), that meant LH needed only 10-13 747-8's to complete the replacement. That leaves sufficient orders and options to more than cover the entire A340-600 fleet.

We don´t always agree when it comes to LH´s fleet plans but here I am with you 100 %  
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
ferpe
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:40 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 61):
What really makes me believe that LH is at least considering the 747-8 as an A340-600 replacement is that they ordered 20 airframes along with 20 options

So for the benefit of the discussion I added the 748i to the over 300 pax chart. It shall be noted that you get 445m2 of cabin flown those 8000nm compared to 330 m2 for the 340-600 and 350-1000, the fuel burn is also that much higher consequently. The frame is clearly in another league :

http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm262/ferpe_bucket/PRchart-10-8i-900-1000-600.jpg

[Edited 2012-10-20 13:40:58]
Non French in France
 
LAXDESI
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:55 pm

Comparing cabin configuration of 748 to 346:
...............F...........J..............Y.........Total
748.........8..........92...........262..........362
346.........8..........60...........238..........306

B748 has about 18% more seats but is more premium heavy.

Has the B748 replaced A346 on any existing routes?
 
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Stitch
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:19 pm

Quoting ferpe (Reply 63):
The frame is clearly in another league...

If LH isn't going to use those extra 747-8's and options for replacement, the only other scenario is LH is considering a massive route expansion that would need 30 747-8's / 11,000 seats.




The A350-1000 will save LH fuel costs over the A340-600, but I don't see it offering much growth as the cabin area difference looks to be about 4.5m2.

The 747-8 would be a larger step, but it also has the room for the larger First Class and Business Class product LH is putting in now. And one expects LH may need to improve the product again during the life of the airframe to stay competitive so the 747-8 has the floor area and the lifting capacity to support such future updates.

[Edited 2012-10-20 14:26:02]
 
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frigatebird
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Sat Oct 20, 2012 10:17 pm

We shouldn't forget these are mere PLANS at the moment. I recall 10 years ago KL planned to reduce its widebody fleet from 4 types (767, M11, 743, 744) to just 2. And look how much came from their plans... A332, 333, M11, 772, 77W, 744 - and the 787-9 and A359 on their way. Ok, the M11 will go and the A333 may be just an interim aircraft, but you can see what happens with these nice plans...

For the LH group, it is difficult to see anything bigger as a 789 as smallest aircraft for SN and OS. But for LH, it is too small... And I can't see LX replacing their Airbus fleet with Boeings. So, the A359 must also be included. But the A333 is still a young aircraft, and will likely stay at least this decade. For smaller airlines like OS, SN and LX, just one type of widebody would be impractical, as would be a 787/A350 combo. Therefore, the 4 widebodies should be 789, 78J, A359, A35J, supplemented with 2 VLA's for LH. My 2 cents...
146,318/19/20/21, AB6,332,333,343,345,346,359,388, 722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9, 742,74E,744,752,762,763, 772,77E,773,77W,788 AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E75/90,F50/70
 
ferpe
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:09 am

The payload-range charts that I get out of my aircraft model could be improved to tell more of the story, especially what are the fuel consumptions of the frames when flying these missions. As the model has all this data I did a simple addition to the PR charts, I concatenated in the fuel consumption per 1000nm and m2 of cabin space after the aircraft name in the legend.

It shall be observed this is the average fuel flow when performing the spec mission and it cost fuel to carry the fuel to those last hours of flight, therefore one can only really compare frames with similar spec range profiles. The fault one does when looking at a 5800nm frame like the 333 vs a 8000nm one like the 789 is not dramatic however, the 789 goes from 42 to 41 and the 333 from 47 to 46 kg/1000nm/m2 if I pit them both at a 5500nm trip ie no real change in the rounded relation. They are both over 10 hour crafts ie not that dissimilar.

Here the over 300 pax chart with this info added:

http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm262/ferpe_bucket/PRchart-10-8i-900-1000-600-1.jpg
Non French in France
 
columba
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RE: LH Plans To Reduce Aircraft Versions To 4 NB/ 4 WB

Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:31 am

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 64):
Has the B748 replaced A346 on any existing routes?

No, as there are not that many. I believe LH only has received 3 or 4 yet
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong

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