Lufthansa Might Revise Outstanding Aircraft Orders

KarelXWB · Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:28 pm

The new Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr told airliners.de that this company will revise all remaining aircraft on order. Due to weak business in Europe and North America, profit forecasts for the coming years are marginally small. Structural changes within the company are required and some of the future aircraft on order might be postponed or even canceled.

Quote:
the remaining aircraft on order will be put under the microscope

Lufthansa has outstanding orders for 20x 777X, 25x A350 and many more A320neo jetliners. It is not clear if the revision will also include aircraft orders for the entire Lufthansa Group.

Source (in German):
http://www.airliners.de/lufthansa-st...lugzeugbestellungen-in-frage/32695

[Edited 2014-06-11 11:34:39]

karadion · Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:34 pm

Is it possible that the A350 the easiest target to be on the chopping block if we're talking short-term? I mean the 777X is still far out from EIS (between 2020-2025) giving it some breathing room to survive any cuts.

seabosdca · Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:36 pm

I'd expect the worst problem is in the European network and A320/A320neo orders are the most likely target.

This makes me doubt the remaining 14 777X orders will be finalized soon, though.

KarelXWB · Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:37 pm

Quoting Karadion (Reply 1):
Is it possible that the A350 the easiest target to be on the chopping block if we're talking short-term? I mean the 777X is still far out from EIS (between 2020-2025) giving it some breathing room to survive any cuts.

No idea. They also haven't yet firmed those remaining 14 777-9's from the original announcement.

In case of financial trouble, airlines usually defer the remaining orders instead of canceling.

[Edited 2014-06-11 11:41:08]

BlueShamu330s · Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:46 pm

When it was reported that British Airways were expressing concern over the "Emiratisation" of the B777X, it referred to BA as being "amongst some other carriers."

I wonder if Lufthansa was one of those others who may be questioning whether they have a need after all for an ultra long haul ultra large twin and whether the desire and apparent need by Boeing to match Emirates' spec requirements has forced Lufthansa to review their position.

Rgds

blrsea · Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:53 pm

Is the remaining 748i order up in the air or is LH pretty committed to that?

jetblue1965 · Wed Jun 11, 2014 6:56 pm

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 4):
When it was reported that British Airways were expressing concern over the "Emiratisation" of the B777X, it referred to BA as being "amongst some other carriers."

I wonder if Lufthansa was one of those others who may be questioning whether they have a need after all for an ultra long haul ultra large twin and whether the desire and apparent need by Boeing to match Emirates' spec requirements has forced Lufthansa to review their position.

If we use the original 777 terminal of "A" "B" "C" markets, then I'm guessing both BA and LH are implying that they want a B-market plane, but EK is forcing both Boeing and Airbus to make everything C-market from day 1.

And that's before all the east Asian carriers gripe about the lack of "A" market planes for their regional WB fleets (East Asia is unique in the sense that NBs like 320 or 738 is still viewed as a plane for very thin routes, or for LCCs)

I wonder how much penalty is it for LH to defer those planes instead of outright cancelling the way EK is. Maybe the 787-10 is so good that LH wants that instead of 359 (since their global route network has rather short stage lengths, longest being EZE at 7100mi)

KarelXWB · Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:04 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 6):
Maybe the 787-10 is so good that LH wants that instead of 359 (since their global route network has rather short stage lengths, longest being EZE at 7100mi)

They did not order the 787-10 because it cannot fly 40% of their A340 routes. A quote from last year:

Quote:
The carrier decided not to order the 787 for a variety of reasons. “The 787-9 is too small for our requirements and the 787-10 does not have the necessary range for around 40% of the destinations,” says Carsten Spohr, CEO of the passenger airline division.

[Edited 2014-06-11 12:08:41]

jetblue1965 · Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:10 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 7):

They did not order the 787-10 because it cannot fly 40% of their A340 routes.

They haven't ordered ... yet, but the 787-10 can efficiently handle everything from ORD to MIA to West Africa to Middle East, possibly with lower CASM than 359 for the same routes

My understanding is that anything the 333 can do, the 787-10 can as well without much penalty

KarelXWB · Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:13 pm

Quoting Jetblue1965 (Reply 8):
My understanding is that anything the 333 can do, the 787-10 can as well without much penalty

True, but the aircraft orders from last year are for A340 and 744 replacement. The A330s are pretty young and are not due for replacement yet.

Prost · Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:13 pm

It sounds like the best solution for the airlines is the worst solution for the manufacturers: Two wings. A wing for the A to B minus markets, and a wing optimized for the B+ to C markets. As the airlines are the customers, shouldn't the manufacturers provide the products they want?

gennadius · Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:14 pm

Quoting blrsea (Reply 5):
Is the remaining 748i order up in the air or is LH pretty committed to that?

If you are talking about their firm 20, which is now 19, I would think that those are relatively safe. They should receive their 14th, line number 1500 for the 747, this month, and their sixth frame of the year around August.

The remaining 4 frames are tentatively scheduled for delivery early next year. This was all part of the re-scheduling that LH got Boeing to agree to earlier this year as they wanted to get more frames into their fleet at a quicker rate.

If you are talking about the 20 purchase rights that were mentioned along with the original order, there has been nothing on that for quite some time. Many feel that the monies for those purchase rights were moved to the 777-9 order, explaining why those 20 were firmed right away. That does make sense, especially in terms of financing and securing slots/pricing.

That does not preclude Lufthansa perhaps ordering more 747-8s at some point, as they do seem to review their fleet planning frequently. Additionally, there have been some rumors that one of the original -8i test aircraft, which was supposed to be one of LH's first 5 frames, has been internally listed with the Lufthansa customer code again, so perhaps there will be a top up of some kind.

Prost · Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:20 pm

This article:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles...ufthansas-profits?campaign_id=yhoo

Has an interesting quote:

Quote:
Lufthansa (LHA:GR) warned on Wednesday that its profits this year and next would be lower than expected, and it blamed the bad forecast on capacity expansion by Gulf carriers. The trio are trying to lure travelers with premium cabin services and hubs in the United Arab Emirates.

By singling out the Guld carriers, are they trying to send a message to their governments? It seems that IAG, AF/KL, and LH will have their hands full with LCC within Europe and the Gulf carriers for east and south international traffic flows. The three have JV for their trans-Atlantic traffic flows, which will help. I just hope we don't see the degradation of service on the European carriers that we experienced in the US.

[Edited 2014-06-11 12:24:21]

seahawk · Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:40 pm

The LCC are a problem, but the new concept with Germanwings is on track. It is likely to earn money this year, just as predicted, Hard hit are the long haul flights. North America suffering from more capacity than demand, Asia from the ME3.

flyyul · Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:43 pm

Lufthansa needs to completely rethink their positioning. The single biggest cost driver is onboard seating density and cabin layout.

Such as example, LH's 3 class A330-300 with 221 seats (vs. KL at 292 and TK at 289) exacerbates the cost differences with its competitors. The new C product, although a much needed improvement, is still a relatively mediocre product vs. AF new 777 product / BA Club World and any Gulf carrier product(s). From what I gather, LH will be the first mover of a 4 class A330-300 with its new PY class - further increasing seat costs. When I look at LH going up on YUL-MUC with 221 seats, competing with a departure to CDG on an AF 3 class 77W with 472 seat airplane - the comparison isn't even fair.

Although massively subsidized, the ME3 + TK (and even KLM) found out that there's a huge price driven market out there, and that the only way to make money is to make the best use of onboard density. Segmentation is key - no doubt this is part of the reason that LH is looking to dense up some A340-300s to 300 seats (with a much smaller J cabin).

KarelXWB · Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:50 pm

Quoting flyyul (Reply 14):
From what I gather, LH will be the first mover of a 4 class A330-300 with its new PY class - further increasing seat costs.

But, more premium seats = more revenue.

Stitch · Wed Jun 11, 2014 7:58 pm

Quoting blrsea (Reply 5):
Is the remaining 748i order up in the air or is LH pretty committed to that?

They're accelerating deliveries, so it seems pretty sure that they will take their entire order (be it 19 or 20 frames).

DALFA · Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:01 pm

Quoting prost (Reply 12):
By singling out the Gulf carriers, are they trying to send a message to their governments? It seems that IAG, AF/KL, and LH will have their hands full with LCC within Europe and the Gulf carriers for east and south international traffic flows.

It doesn't seem that the respective governments are even willing to change existing policies to create a level playing field. Honestly I believe the ME3 + TK are therefore a bigger threat to the beforementioned carriers than the LCCs.

flyyul · Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:04 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 15):

Quoting Stitch (Reply 16):
But, more premium seats = more revenue

There's excess capacity of premium seats. Ask anybody at LH what their "paid F" load factor is - and the amount of real estate this cabin takes up on their intercontinental services. 80-92J on a 747-8 and almost 100J on an A380 is really incredible - and probably excessive.

I maintain that LH will be the carrier with the lowest density on the A330-300 fleet, probably in the world... fighting for global traffic flows and competing with AF/KLs, TK, ME3 etc etc.

kl911 · Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:10 pm

Quoting flyyul (Reply 14):
Although massively subsidized, the ME3

Can you proof this? This is being brought up here too often.

Flying-Tiger · Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:14 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
The new Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr told airliners.de that this company will revise all remaining aircraft on order. Due to weak business in Europe and North America, profit forecasts for the coming years are marginally small.

From my understanding that´s not what was said - they will look at all orders if there is a need for deferral or cancellation. That´s a far cry from "we will cancel".

Furthermore, even though it is a profit warning I´m at a loss why there is such a reaction at the stock market. There is still an operational profit of 1 bn EUR for this and 2 bn EUR for 2015 forecasted - which is much better than today.

IMO this talk of "revising orders" is sending a message especially towards the pilots to accept the pension pay revisions - either you give or we´ll have to shrink / remain static.

KarelXWB · Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:17 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 20):
they will look at all orders if there is a need for deferral or cancellation

As far as I known, that's the definition of "to revise". The outcome of a revision might be the same.

flyyul · Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:19 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 19):

Quoting flyyul (Reply 14):
Although massively subsidized, the ME3

Can you proof this? This is being brought up here too often.

Did you not see the Etihad secret loan revealed? I highly suggest you do!

tommy1808 · Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:30 pm

Quoting kl911 (Reply 19):

Can you proof this? This is being brought up here too often.

Tax exemption is a subsidy by WTO standards, since the tax situation in the UAE is pretty common knowledge it is kinda hard to see why you need additional proof.

Quoting DALFA (Reply 17):
Honestly I believe the ME3 + TK are therefore a bigger threat to the beforementioned carriers than the LCCs.

Its two fold. Due to the LCCs prices withing the EU are down and most airlines lose money flying domestic/EU. Since they need those flights to feed the long haul flying, the legacies need to subsidize their EU network with the longhaul network. And making the money to do that is kinda difficult with the competition being subsidized by their respective nation states.

Quoting DALFA (Reply 17):
It doesn't seem that the respective governments are even willing to change existing policies to create a level playing field.

EK just took a 16 billion reason NOT to level the playing field off the playing field.....

best regards
Thomas

ODwyerPW · Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:01 pm

Quoting prost (Reply 10):
It sounds like the best solution for the airlines is the worst solution for the manufacturers: Two wings. A wing for the A to B minus markets, and a wing optimized for the B+ to C markets. As the airlines are the customers, shouldn't the manufacturers provide the products they want?

Sure... just have to pony up for the extra development/certification costs of every single frame purchased.

dtw2hyd · Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:18 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 15):
more premium seats = more revenue

Isn't that an outdated business model legacies strictly followed for last few decades only to be proven by ME3 they were wrong? I am glad LH un-cuffed from this model and planning to make money with other classes. SQ is doing the same. And if you notice AC 787 Y is almost same as JQ 787 Y. Overall it looks like a *A decision.

Goal should be to make profit by having right config for the route airline is serving. Let it be all F or all Y or anything in-between.

aerokiwi · Wed Jun 11, 2014 10:27 pm

What about the "crazy" concept of offering genuine one way fares in Europe? Seriously, LH's approach to pricing is extraordinarily antiquated. Sounds like they need a shakeup from their dinosaur mindset.

Revelation · Wed Jun 11, 2014 10:33 pm

Quoting prost (Reply 10):
It sounds like the best solution for the airlines is the worst solution for the manufacturers: Two wings. A wing for the A to B minus markets, and a wing optimized for the B+ to C markets.

To get the real benefit you're really talking about a whole new center section of the a/c meaning new wing, wing box, landing gear as well. Boeing looked at different wings for 787-8 and -9 and decided it wasn't worth it.

Quoting prost (Reply 10):
As the airlines are the customers, shouldn't the manufacturers provide the products they want?

Maybe if the manufacturers could pass on the cost, but that's not the reality of the situation.

MCOflyer · Thu Jun 12, 2014 1:45 am

I hope LH decides to exercise the remaining options and order more 748's.

KH

Prost · Thu Jun 12, 2014 2:01 am

It might be better for Boeing if they upped their 777x order than the 748 order.

MCOflyer · Thu Jun 12, 2014 2:29 am

Quoting prost (Reply 29):
It might be better for Boeing if they upped their 777x order than the 748 order.

I can easily see that happening. They currently have 34 on order. I suspect this might be increased to 50 frames.

KH

Stitch · Thu Jun 12, 2014 2:39 am

Quoting mcoflyer (Reply 30):
I can easily see that happening. They currently have 34 on order. I suspect this might be increased to 50 frames

They've firmed only 20 of the 34 for the moment.

7BOEING7 · Thu Jun 12, 2014 2:52 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
The new Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr told airliners.de that this company will revise all remaining aircraft on order.

The reports I saw said "review" not "revise". Revise comes later.

"Spohr will now set out fresh restructuring plans next month, and the German airline will review its spending plans, including the possible cancellation or deferral of plane orders from Airbus or Boeing, Finance Chief Simone Menne told analysts and reporters."

tommy1808 · Thu Jun 12, 2014 6:05 am

Quoting mcoflyer (Reply 28):
I hope LH decides to exercise the remaining options and order more 748's.

i think the common understanding is that those options do not exist anymore and are now 20 firm 777x orders.

best regards
Thomas

rlwynn · Thu Jun 12, 2014 7:43 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 32):
The reports I saw said "review" not "revise". Revise comes later.

Here is what he said "Deswegen würden auch sämtliche Flugzeugbestellungen unter die Lupe genommen, ob sie verschoben oder gar abgesagt werden müssten. "

"The orders will come under the lupe, whether they would have to be postponed or even canceled."

So yes reviewed.

na · Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:19 am

Quoting mcoflyer (Reply 28):
I hope LH decides to exercise the remaining options and order more 748's.

As much as I´d love to see that I dont think that will happen. Maybe a few fleet additions, 5 more frames or so are possible, but chances are slim I´m afraid. And after this news even slimmer as it points towards deferrals and cancellations. For the last 4 outstanding 748s and the last two A380s planned for next year its too late for cancellation, Boeing would much easier accept the cancellation of some 777X.
As this news points towards rather short- and midterm measures I expect that some of the A350s will be deferred, the delivery rate stretched longer into the future. Maybe they cancel some of the 777X, reduce the order to 20 or so which imho could be enough before 2025, but keep the options for longterm developments. LH should also take into account that shortly after the 777X flies Airbus might very likely have the A380 NEO on offer which might change the game. Technically they can keep the 13 youngest 744s until the 2020 - 2025 timeframe, then they´ll reach the technical limit of 120.000 flight hours. Deferrals will surely affect the shorthaul fleet, LH has many A320 neos and A321s on order, slots which could easily be transferred to grateful competitors.

gennadius · Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:23 am

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 33):

Quoting mcoflyer,reply=28:

I hope LH decides to exercise the remaining options and order more 748's.

i think the common understanding is that those options do not exist anymore and are now 20 firm 777x orders.

Yes, what people have surmised, most likely correctly, is that the 20 purchase rights that accompanied the 747-8i orders were transferred to the 777-9, reflecting an easier way to finance and secure those slots.

This does not preclude LH from ordering more 747-8s, as the way the backlog stands, they could get frames almost as early as they wanted most likely.

PanHAM · Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:35 am

Quoting prost (Reply 12):
By singling out the Guld carriers, are they trying to send a message to their governments? It seems that IAG, AF/KL, and LH will have their hands full with LCC within Europe and the Gulf carriers for east and south international traffic flows

The message to the government will not be heard anyhow, that government decided to put the aviation industry in shackles and stumbling Stones on their way. That government does not think economically and they will not learn that the passenger tax yields less tax Revenue and that tax Revenue would be greater without that tax.

The message Mr., Spohr is sending to the Investors and the General public is, that times are harder and profits will suffer because of the ever changing economic Environment. They have done the work on the cost side, the income side is harder to Manager. If, in March next year, the operating profit will be greater than the forcast, a new star named Spohr will be on the horizon.

The message is also, that constant Change will be the Motto of the Company, nothing is taken for granted and flexibility is the Religion. .

Rara · Thu Jun 12, 2014 8:36 am

Quoting rlwynn (Reply 34):
"The orders will come under the lupe, whether they would have to be postponed or even canceled."

So yes reviewed.

And in case of a negative review, the orders will come under the pupe.

lugie · Thu Jun 12, 2014 10:16 am

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 37):

The message to the government will not be heard anyhow, that government decided to put the aviation industry in shackles and stumbling Stones on their way. That government does not think economically and they will not learn that the passenger tax yields less tax Revenue and that tax Revenue would be greater without that tax.

The message Mr., Spohr is sending to the Investors and the General public is, that times are harder and profits will suffer because of the ever changing economic Environment. They have done the work on the cost side, the income side is harder to Manager. If, in March next year, the operating profit will be greater than the forcast, a new star named Spohr will be on the horizon.

The message is also, that constant Change will be the Motto of the Company, nothing is taken for granted and flexibility is the Religion. .

Sad but true, this is perfectly correct.

I'd actually go as far as noting the German government on the list of who gives LH a tough time, just in line with the LCCs and the ME3 carriers.

FRA night curfew, 18 west/ 07L25R restrictions; denying MUCs third runway; the ominous "Luftverkehrssteuer" that has been rising over the last years (air traffic taxation)

stylo777 · Thu Jun 12, 2014 10:26 am

Quoting lugie (Reply 39):
Sad but true, this is perfectly correct.

I'd actually go as far as noting the German government on the list of who gives LH a tough time, just in line with the LCCs and the ME3 carriers.

FRA night curfew, 18 west/ 07L25R restrictions; denying MUCs third runway; the ominous "Luftverkehrssteuer" that has been rising over the last years (air traffic taxation)

...and in addtition now DFS with their intention to increase ATC fee's dramatically.

tommy1808 · Thu Jun 12, 2014 10:35 am

Quoting lugie (Reply 39):
I'd actually go as far as noting the German government on the list of who gives LH a tough time, just in line with the LCCs and the ME3 carriers.

I am pretty sure that, if LH where a non-German company, they could sue Germany for compensation under some International Investment Treaty, but being a German company they get to hold the short end of the stick.

best regards
Thomas

tommy1808 · Thu Jun 12, 2014 10:38 am

Quoting stylo777 (Reply 40):

...and in addtition now DFS with their intention to increase ATC fee's dramatically.

which is the other side of the same medal. Anti-Air Travel politics reduce the amount of air traffic, air traffic fails the to reach the predicted level the ATC fees are based on, hence those fees have to raise*:

best regards
Thomas

*have to as the DFS is no profit oriented company, they also should not run at a loss.

PanHAM · Thu Jun 12, 2014 11:03 am

Quoting lugie (Reply 39):
I'd actually go as far as noting the German government on the list of who gives LH a tough time, just in line with the LCCs and the ME3 carriers.

and if that's not the problem, the alterntive is even far worse.
Looking at the traffic forecats, beween 13 and 30 the world wide traffic doubles, for Europe, the increase will be 65% only. That is still a lot and some infrastructure may not be able to cope with that, but the industry is suffering and European rriers will fall bck.

Governments do not realize that airlines are vital infrastructure.

tommy1808 · Thu Jun 12, 2014 11:27 am

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 43):
Governments do not realize that airlines are vital infrastructure.

yup, sometimes i am wondering if going after politicians PhD thesis´s is good enough or if people should start checking their high school diplomas.

best regards
Thomas

seahawk · Thu Jun 12, 2014 1:03 pm

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 43):
Governments do not realize that airlines are vital infrastructure.

Airports are, airlines are just user of those airports. And the fact remains that the population in Germany does not want an increase in traffic at those airports, so politicians do exactly what the voters want. Reduce growth and traffic.

The reality is that you do not win elections, if you want to improve an airport.

[Edited 2014-06-12 06:04:18]

PanHAM · Thu Jun 12, 2014 1:12 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 45):
Airports are, airlines are just user of those airports. And the fact remains that the population in Germany does not want an increase in traffic at those airports, so politicians do exactly what the voters want. Reduce growth and traffic.

the route structure is part of the infrastructure of a Region and the fact that non-stop Services are available from an Airport is a valuable asset when it Comes to locate industroes or businesses.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 45):
The reality is that you do not win elections, if you want to improve an airport.

The realities is that you have to do the cruelties at the beginning of a legilstature. Those anti-anythings have a short Memory. The Frustration of those who do watch the wrong decisions which are made on populistic and therefpore false basics is lasting the whole legislature.

SEPilot · Thu Jun 12, 2014 1:29 pm

Quoting mcoflyer (Reply 28):
I hope LH decides to exercise the remaining options and order more 748's.

Yes, that would be nice, but not going to happen. The 779 is simply a better and more profitable plane, and pretty much demolishes any business case for the 748.

na · Thu Jun 12, 2014 2:53 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 47):
The 779 is simply a better and more profitable plane, and pretty much demolishes any business case for the 748.

The 779 does not exist and wont for at least another six years. And who knows if it´ll be a troublesome program.

ikramerica · Thu Jun 12, 2014 2:55 pm

Quoting Karadion (Reply 1):
Is it possible that the A350 the easiest target to be on the chopping block if we're talking short-term? I mean the 777X is still far out from EIS (between 2020-2025) giving it some breathing room to survive any cuts.

Why cancel? Why not defer?

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