tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:28 am

If we are to gain any understanding of the Indonesian view of the airways that evening a look at Indonesian capability is in order.

The Indonesian Company PT CMI Teknologi (CMI) is in a partnership with Lockheed to manufacture Phased Array antenna assemblies similar to the US http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/FPS-117 which is the NORAD defense radar.

Indonesia has so many needs for radar coverage of all their Islands and Archipelagos that they are a bulk buyer of those types of products. With a native technical ability in the chipmaking industry, Indonesia has taken the opportunity to enter into the manufacture of PAR antenna arrays.

The network of radar installations have given Indonesia reason to claim being the regional power.

On northern Sumatra there are four known permanent "primary" radar installations:
Radar Unit 231 at Lhokseumawe
Radar Unit 232 at Dumai
Radar Unit 233 at Sabang
Radar Unit 234 at Sibolga

http://www.lockheedmartin.co.uk/us/n...i-complete-radar-production-r.html

"Lockheed Martin and Indonesian technology firm PT CMI Teknologi (CMI) recently completed a production readiness review that qualifies CMI to begin in-country manufacturing for the TPS-77 and FPS-117 long-range surveillance radars.


These are similar to the AN/TPS-59, which is the Marine Corps Mobile version of this radar.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPS-59
*******************************************
We may consider the max range of this radar to be about 240 nautical miles.


The Sabang installation on Pulau We Island gives coverage for about 270 degrees at the tip of the strait.
Unit 231 at Lhokseumawe gives overlapping coverage woth Sebang in the north and with Unit 232 at Dumai in the southern part of the strait. Sibolga (1°52'45.43"N 99° 1'18.15"E) covers up to 240 miles west of its location.
 
bluesky9
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:57 am

I am starting to see a few quirks regarding the pings, that just don't quite feel right.
1. The pings mysteriously restart at 0225Z just a 10 mins after the A/C is goes out of primary radar range, so we conveniently we cannot corroborate the second set of ping data with the radar data for this phase of the flight. It is a little too neat for my liking.
2. Why would the ACARS pings restart? Why would say a potential hijacker turn this back on?
3. The last ping 0019Z, assumed to be a partial log in after flameout due to fuel exhaustion and to have occurred due to re-powering via the automatic deployment of the RAT, is not consistent with any impact sound recorded by the hydrophones. The only sound we have is at 0135Z more than hour later. As I mentioned before this means either; i. a controlled ditching occurred after the last ping (not picked up by the hydrophones), ii. after flameout someone switched to another tank and restarted an engine so the A/C kept flying and made contact with the ocean at 0135Z or iii. there is something wrong with the ping data.
4. The only thing that we have to go on as to where the A/C went after leaving primary radar coverage, are the pings. By their nature they create an intense focus and absorb a lot of intellectual horsepower, but so far there is nothing to independently corroborate them after the odd 0225Z log on. i.e. no debris, no other radar data, no hydrophone data, no visuals. Maybe that evidence will be found eventually, but so far nothing.

As far as I know from the reports the ping data is recorded (only?) at the Perth ground station, and was provided 6 days after the loss of MH370. Be interesting to know whether the ping data is duplicated when it is created and how many people have write access to those databases. In my experience, I would guess that maybe two people have routine write access and maybe another three would have write access in some special circumstances. So, in other words, if someone was told to create or edit the database by the government, not a lot of people would need to be involved. The engineers who later did the analysis, might not need to know anything (about any hypothetical) modifications to the data.

Tailskid said that the fire extinguishing sphere shaped tank found in the Maldives was from a Twin Otter, is there a reference for that.

[Edited 2014-07-14 01:08:44]
 
NAV30
Posts: 1080
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:28 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 103):
I am starting to see a few quirks regarding the pings, that just don't quite feel right.

You make lots of good points, bluesky9.

Worth remembering that, from very early on, our ONLY information as to the track the aeroplane followed comes from Inmarsat?

The aeroplane 'went off radar' forty minutes after take-off, about two minutes after the Captain's 'last words.' Nothing was heard from the aeroplane after that time - it had 'gone off radar.' Malaysian military radar picked up another contact a few minutes after that, apparently 'tracking back' over Malaysia - but given that there were no further communications from MH370, this might well have been some other aeroplane. Beyond that, absolutely the ONLY evidence of MH370's apparent track back over Malaysia, and then pretty well due south for thousands of miles, comes not from radar confirmed by radio contact, in the normal way; but from the Inmarsat pings only?

I'm still a bit 'haunted' by the fact that the Captain never 'checked in' with Ho Chi Minh - or, alternatively, didn't inform Malaysian ATC that he had turned back? I can't really credit that a pilot with such vast experience would have failed to do that; going that far off his assigned course, he'd virtually have been inviting a collision with another aeroplane? Even if he was bent on murder/suicide - which I for one find difficult to believe - it's hard to believe that he'd risk taking another totally-innocent planeload of passengers with him?

STILL think that they should carry out a proper search of the area where MH370 first stopped communicating and went off radar. More systematic than the couple of days they spent looking there before the Inmarsat data 'sold' them the idea of MH370 flying due south, into the 'middle of nowhere,' for so many hours?
 
sipadan
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:44 am

Tailskid,

It would seem incontrovertible that Indonesia did track 9M-MRO based on the radar capability. Do we know if all the installations had been completed? and if so, when?

The article was published 16 months before 9M-MRO and states that CMI is ready to 'begin in country manufacturing' and begin 'the assembly of radar row receivers'.

If this were to begin immediately, or a month or two from the time of the article publication, that would give between 13-16 months to be up and running. Is this a reasonable amount of time for such an installation and production?

I would assume that if installed, they most likely would have been on and functioning properly.
 
YoungMans
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:25 am

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 103):
The pings mysteriously restart at 0225Z just a 10 mins after the A/C is goes out of primary radar range,

... and all the search efforts in the SIO were then based wholly and solely on just those pings.
Result: Negative.
There is no proof that the pings which re-started at 0225Z were in fact from 9M-MRO.
The people from SatCom probably wouldn't have noticed anything different themselves.
Unless, as you suggest, they were 'in the know' and were told to fudge the data.
The pings could have been from another transmitter, somewhere, transmitting with the correct identification codes and the right (necessary) time delays to simulate a track.
Whoever might have been behind it would have also known the endurance of 9M-MRO and that is when the pings stopped. All they had to make sure is that the satcom unit on 9M-MRO does not also transmit.

Unfortunately, though, any kind of theory like this presupposes that there were elements on the ground, as well as (probably) on the aircraft, responsible for this mystery. It would also mean that it is (was) not just a straight forward accident, pilot suicide or anything of that nature.

There seems to be a distinct reluctance on these threads to even consider that as a possibility.

Quoting bluesky9 (Reply 103):
.... a lot of intellectual horsepower ...

I love this expression..!!
It sums up perfectly all that effort behind the posts on these threads alone, here on a.net ..!

[Edited 2014-07-14 04:28:52]
 
mandala499
Posts: 6591
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:00 pm

Quoting tailskid (Reply 101):
Radar Unit 231 at Lhokseumawe
Radar Unit 232 at Dumai
Radar Unit 233 at Sabang
Radar Unit 234 at Sibolga

The question is, do we know of they were operating normally/fully that night? A simple power outage has rendered our radar defence useless at times... and those areas surrounding units 231 - 234, are within those areas with questionable power supply... and questionable back up power too.
232 would not be useful for us with respect to MH370...
233 is the one that would yield the best information.
234 might not have seen anything at all...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
mandala499
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:04 pm

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 108):
There is no proof that the pings which re-started at 0225Z were in fact from 9M-MRO.

Well, it was identified to the aircraft, which consists of the AES ID... and the logon data also consists of several other identifiers, unique to 9M-MRO

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 108):
The pings could have been from another transmitter, somewhere, transmitting with the correct identification codes and the right (necessary) time delays to simulate a track.

The USIM and other components of the SDU CM are not known to many within MH in order for them to forge it.
The other place where they can obtain those information from are Inmarsat, and the service distribution patner.
Once we go to this level of conspiracy, it becomes a bit too much...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
sipadan
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:39 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 110):
The USIM and other components of the SDU CM are not known to many within MH in order for them to forge it.
The other place where they can obtain those information from are Inmarsat, and the service distribution patner.
Once we go to this level of conspiracy, it becomes a bit too much...

        

I think this is important to keep in mind, tempting as it may be. The facts just don't support these flights of fantasy, IMO.
 
Starglider
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:55 pm

A new documentary on the subject, broadcasted on July 13th:

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/tv/tv.../the-mystery-of-mh370/1258944.html

However inaccurate it may be, it is interesting how the displayed flight track changes between Pulau We / Great Nicobar Island with every newly released documentary . . .
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:26 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 106):
The question is, do we know of they were operating normally/fully that night? A simple power outage has rendered our radar defence useless at times... and those areas surrounding units 231 - 234, are within those areas with questionable power supply... and questionable back up power too.

The Vietnamese, Thai and Malaysian primary radars were all operational that night, I assume that the Indonesian radar was operational too. But of course there is no way to prove this, until the day when Indonesia is asked to release the recorded data from their radar on March 8th. The same goes for Thailand, who have publicly stated that they tracked the flight.

All military radars that I know of have on site backup power, I can't imagine the Indonesians spending a million bucks on a radar and then leaving it vulnerable to someone cutting a power line 20 miles away. Modern diesel generators are quiet, environmentally friendly, very dependable and are cheap. Assuming no graft involved in the purchase, a 50kw generator system would cost less than $20.000 usd. The truck to carry it would cost more than that.
 
bluesky9
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:20 am

Quoting rwessel (Reply 58):
This is especially true when jamming something like simple AM VHF communications - some of the fancier digital systems do a better job of hiding the difference between massive noise on the frequency, and not having a signal, from the operator, but even then, this was shared, and not having *any* aircraft being able to communicate with that Vietnam ATC station would have been noticed..

And that doesn't address the issue of remotely taking control of an airliner.

So this theory is pretty absurd.

The style of jamming you are referring to is WWII vintage, being a computer engineer you should be able to figure out for yourself that more sophisticated jamming techniques are possible now.

I am not saying this is a high probability scenario, but it is far from impossible.

Firstly, consider a jamming with equipment that detects the direction of the transmission and selectively jams just VHF transmissions of a specific frequency and carrier strength coming from that direction. Then jamming only needs to occur while the target is transmitting. The jamming could be more subtle (and lower power) than simply using white noise, it could instead overlay a scrambled voice modulation or a predictive modulation calculated on the fly and opposite to the modulation transmitted by the A/C transmitter being jammed, which interestingly might sound like mumbling to others listening in. This would also mean that other A/C and ATC transmissions would be normal (not jammed). True this directional jamming requires the jamming device to be located fairly close to the A/C being jammed, i.e. either inside the A/C or in another A/C flying nearby. (Do a search on the internet "directional VHF jamming" there are many devices that do these types of things and more.)

In any case there are ways the A/C could have been hijacked that would not require any VHF jamming. For example, using a gas similar to that used by the Russians in the theatre hostage event several years ago. With prior access to the A/C this would be simple, but even without prior access to the A/C there are ways this could be achieved in flight and could knock out everyone on the A/C in as little as 2 to 5 seconds. The timing of the ATC handover could have been the signal on someone listening on VHF inside the A/C cabin or cargo compartment to go onto a portable oxygen bottle or just hold their breath for a few minutes. Then maybe they just walk up top cockpit door and use a small charge to gain entry, and then switch off the other comms. Alternatively, perhaps the ACARS, secondary radar, ADS-B are jammed as well. The A/C would remain on autopilot and could then be easily steered by a GPS spoofing device until access was gained to the cockpit by the hijacker. These GPS spoofing devices already exist and have been shown to be able to control a 200 ton ship steering a GPS course. (Do a search you will credible references to these types of devices. If you know anything about the physics of GPS you can see it would not be too difficult create something like this.)

It might be that the plan was to put everyone to sleep and for the hijacker to land the plane somewhere, but perhaps something went wrong / or not.
 
bluesky9
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Tue Jul 15, 2014 3:49 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 110):
Well, it was identified to the aircraft, which consists of the AES ID... and the logon data also consists of several other identifiers, unique to 9M-MRO....The USIM and other components of the SDU CM are not known to many within MH in order for them to forge it. The other place where they can obtain those information from are Inmarsat, and the service distribution partner. Once we go to this level of conspiracy, it becomes a bit too much...

Would this login information be transmitted using encryption or is it transmitted in the clear or with the some easily breakable encryption? (A lot of old encryption methods were pretty rudimentary and ineffective, e.g. mobile phones, wifi etc...) (I realize the transmission is directional, but there are probably many places like on the ground at airports where the transmissions from the A/C could be intercepted, after all the satellites being in geosynchronous orbit are always in the same place.) However, if the comms are properly encrypted (does "AES" in the context referred to relate to the encryption used), then that would make it much less likely to be replicated by another A/C or device.

However, the point I was making about these pings is that at the end of the day they are just a few lines in a database, and could be uploaded by a single authorized person in a few seconds, if the company was ordered to do so by its controlling Government. For example, based on a dataset from a previous flight, but of course adjusting the date and timings using the MH370 ID. The engineers who later might investigate might not know anything about the authenticity of the data.


Quoting sipadan (Reply 111):
I see where you are heading with all of this, and I don't think it's a completely unreasonable line of inquiry. I put less stock into the BFO stuff (and not only because I don't fully understand it) than some, and I don't think a beeline south is the only possibility here (though i still think it to be most likely).

a part of me admittedly has a problem with this aspect of the 'captain did it' theory, but I can think of no other scenario, that with the passage of time (like landing somewhere...a hostage situation), that makes ANY sense. And his martyrdom fetish is enough to point me back squarely to him.

I have sort of been lead to these line of inquiry, since there seems to be a problem with most other scenarios.

I see now you have gone through a similar process and reached your own conclusion. However for me, until the black boxes are retrieved and analyzed, I would find it hard to be certain about what happened, so I prefer to just have a set of scenarios with various probabilities.

My method is to slice up each event and look from different perspectives, to see if evidence or lack of it seems to fit one scenario or tends to disprove another. Each scenario seems to have something that doesn't exactly fit. Initially, I thought scenarios like fire/smoke/electrical problem or hypoxia were the most likely, but some evidence points towards some sort of hijacking. I also have doubts about the "captain did it" scenario, so that leaves hijack by a third party.

Some people offer reasons why a third party hijack scenario could not have happened, but often the objections are easily overcome [but that doesn't mean it is the most likely].

Quoting sipadan (Reply 111):
It seems you may have failed to take into account that NO, zero, nada information pointing to anyone even remotely suspicious has been uncovered after 4 months, in which ALL the intelligence agencies the world over have had access to the pax manifest.

I agree that it is unlikely to be any of the pax whose backgrounds have been checked. I explained earlier why the pax manifest check may not be definitive. For example the hijacker could "replace" a legitimate pax and use their passport before the flight. So all the checking of pax on the manifest would be of no help. If the hijacker was in the forward cargo bay then of course they won't be on the pax list. It only requires one person either in the cargo bay or traveling as a pax to carry out the hijack, if everyone else is asleep.

The are a range of possible hijack scenarios, some of the more complicated scenarios could probably only be carried out by a nation state, other scenarios with lower chances of achieving their aims might be carried out by some sort of terrorist group.

1. Fire/Smoke/Electrical Malfunction -
Against: Very selective electrical problems, No comms for all that time, did not land ASAP, no ELT signal from cockpit or cabin, or on ditching, and yet A/C flew on, seemingly making multiple turns, tracked with primary radar but no attempts by ATC to contact the A/C while it transited Malaysian airspace, ACARS login 1825Z, Satphone calls not answered, No hydrophone data soon after 0019Z implies controlled ditching [i.e. conscious with A/C under control]
For: simple, some slightly similar past events, could result in control problems [A/C not flyable], could result in hypoxia, partially explaining flight path, consistent with two visual sightings of A/C with fire

2. Hypoxia -
Against: constant response time to ATC (expect increasing response time), timing of loss of comms, all comms disabled in short time, No known attempts by ATC to contact the A/C while transiting Malaysian airspace, ACARS login at 1825Z, apparent turn south according to ping data, no hydrophone evidence of impact soon after flame out and last partial logon at 0019Z,
For: simple, most events occurring soon after reaching top of climb, two non standard radio calls, response time to ATC (quite long), mumbling, erratic flight path

3. Hijack by Crew (Captain?) -
Against: Don't see a strong motivation, no purpose, why the meandering path, why the ACARS logon 1825Z, why did last words to ATC change after the first reports, why fly across Malaysia [i.e. why not turn east]
For: Simple explanation for loss of comms & flight path, access

4. Hijack by someone else -
Against: how was access gained, no known purpose, reasonably complicated scenario, how were comms stopped so quickly (requires jamming), what happened to the A/C, no one claimed responsibility, no demands (that we know of)
For: could explain flight path [pilots acting under duress], non standard ATC calls [could be signal], mumbling radio call, controlled ditching so no hydrophone data, some terrorists operating in Maylasia

5. Hijack by a nation state, gone wrong / or not -
Against: no known purpose, complicated scenario, what happened to the A/C, no demands (that we know of), only advanced nation state, politically very risky
For: comms stopped so quickly (jamming?), mumbling radio call (jamming?), no debris found, no one claimed responsibility [as you would expect], might have been sold as safe but something went wrong

6. Shootdown -
Against: Debris would most likely be found, A/C would most likely go down quickly, leak likely, why would Malaysia want to cover this up [unless they were responsible]
For: somewhat consistent with two visual sightings of A/C with fire, reason why no attempt by ATC to contact A/C after loss, strangeness of public communications out of Malaysia after disappearance, strangeness about changing search areas after they tracked A/C

7. Heist -
Against: No known valuable cargo, complicated scenario, lowish chance of success, loss of comms very quick and specific
For: No one claims responsibility, might explain flight path [i.e. close to land], might explain visual sighting of fire, might explain why A/C kept flying perhaps towards the SIO

List of Facts That Don't Seem to Fit Together
Loss of very specific comms in short time
Two eyewitnesses regarding A/C on fire
Why did last transmission as reported by Malaysia change
No ATC attempt to communicate with A/C while A/C was reportedly tracked transiting Malaysian airspace
Why did Malaysia search in GOT if they tracked A/C going west on primary radar
Why or what would cause ACARS logon 1825Z
There is absolutely no independent evidence to corroborate the ACARS pings after the unusual 1825Z login
There is no hydrophone event consistent with flame out and partial login soon after 0019Z
No debris found

I realize the jamming scenarios and hijack scenarios are more complex, and therefore less likely, but most of the objections to them are easily overcome. Also debate about third party hijack has been drowned out by discussion centered around ping analysis, smoke/fire/electrical analysis and "Captain did it" scenarios, but there are problems with all these preferred scenarios.

[Edited 2014-07-14 20:54:17]

[Edited 2014-07-14 21:08:40]

[Edited 2014-07-14 21:15:23]

[Edited 2014-07-14 21:21:37]
 
mandala499
Posts: 6591
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2001 8:47 pm

RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:39 am

Quoting tailskid (Reply 110):
All military radars that I know of have on site backup power, I can't imagine the Indonesians spending a million bucks on a radar and then leaving it vulnerable to someone cutting a power line 20 miles away.

It all sounds nice, but hey, until last year, the airport at Medan had an SSR and PSR, which don't work when there's a power cutout... which was often...

Quoting tailskid (Reply 110):
Modern diesel generators are quiet, environmentally friendly, very dependable and are cheap. Assuming no graft involved in the purchase, a 50kw generator system would cost less than $20.000 usd.

In Indonesia, "assuming no graft", assumes a lot...    I don't know whether that applies to this case or not, but you know what I mean...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:55 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 113):
the airport at Medan had an SSR and PSR, which don't work when there's a power cutout... which was often...

Those are civil aviation radars, not military radars.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7321
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:07 pm

Quoting tailskid (Reply 114):
Those are civil aviation radars, not military radars.

You have a very optimistic view on radar installation operations. Wish that is true, but not. Port Blair has 450 km SSR and ~60 km PSR. Its a dual purpose station. Probably works banker hours. India has a Super Green Pine facing Bay of Bengal with 1200 km range which it uses for missile/anti-missile test program. Apparently they switch it on only when there is a test.

When you are on a remote island every gallon of diesel counts. Indian Coast Guard couldn't get additional radar installation approvals from environment agencies because of some endangered birds. Just because you can get generator for $20K doesn't mean polluting a pristine archipelago.

Only exception is when a given country has an heightened defense posture, none of the countries involved have at the time MH370 disappeared.
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:53 pm

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 115):
You have a very optimistic view on radar installation operations. Wish that is true, but not. Port Blair has 450 km SSR and ~60 km PSR.

The SSR would be an ATC radar and the PSR no doubt is the tower radar. Again, these are not military radars which was the subject we were discussing above.

Quoting dtw2hyd (Reply 115):
When you are on a remote island every gallon of diesel counts. Indian Coast Guard couldn't get additional radar installation approvals from environment agencies because of some endangered birds. Just because you can get generator for $20K doesn't mean polluting a pristine archipelago.

If a nation decides that radar coverage over a given area is in the national strategic interests, there will be radar coverage. Indonesia has apparently decided that radar coverage over its littoral and inter island waters is in its national interests.

http://www.lockheedmartin.co.uk/us/n...i-complete-radar-production-r.html

In any event, the discussion above was about military installations northern Sumatra, not out on the islands.
 
Thenoflyzone
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:58 pm

Quoting tailskid (Reply 116):
The SSR would be an ATC radar and the PSR no doubt is the tower radar.

Suggest you read up on SSR and PSR radars.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_traffic_control_radar_beacon_system
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:13 am

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 117):
Suggest you read up on SSR and PSR radars.

If you have anything to say, be sure and let us know.
 
Thenoflyzone
Posts: 2873
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:28 am

Quoting tailskid (Reply 118):
If you have anything to say, be sure and let us know.

Since PSR and SSR antennas are usually mounted one on top of each other, both feeds are received by any ATC agency that requires it, be it en route, terminal or tower control.

Just had a look on google earth and found pictures of the radar antenna at Medan, and indeed both PSR and SSR radars are mounted one on top of each other.

Thenoflyzone

[Edited 2014-07-15 17:31:53]
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:33 am

Again, you do understand that the above discussion is about military radar, not ATC or tower radar, don't you?
 
Thenoflyzone
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:39 am

Quoting tailskid (Reply 120):
Again, you do understand that the above discussion is about military radar, not ATC or tower radar, don't you?

yes i do. I was simply correcting a statement you made about SSR/PSR radars and who utilizes the signals.
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:05 am

Quoting sipadan (Reply 104):
The article was published 16 months before 9M-MRO and states that CMI is ready to 'begin in country manufacturing' and begin 'the assembly of radar row receivers'.

If this were to begin immediately, or a month or two from the time of the article publication, that would give between 13-16 months to be up and running. Is this a reasonable amount of time for such an installation and production?

Whatever they had in place before the FPS-117 version arrived would have been very capable as well; the Malacca Strait has always been of prime interest.
 
ACT
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:46 am

Since releasing an earlier statement of 17 June 2014, the Independent MH370 Investigation Team (Duncan Steel et al) continued to collect information, study the data, and refine models, in order to better estimate the final location of MH370. One issue the Team is now exploring:

"Analysis A (p. 25) of the ATSB report begins the path computation at the 19:41, which is approximately the point of closest approach of the aircraft to the satellite. However, a complete solution of the flight path needs to account for the path of the aircraft between the last primary radar location at 18:22 and the start of the computation at 19:41.

"To better understand the ATSB results, we have computed a similar path starting at 19:41 that approximately satisfies the BTO and BFO data and terminates in the “priority” search area from the report. This leads to a location at 19:41 which is only about 195 miles from the location at 18:28, indicating a direct path speed of only 160 mph. Possible explanations are the aircraft path was a circling pattern or some other more complex path or scenario. Can the ATSB please provide further clarification of the possible flight paths during this critical time interval?"

Reference to Diagrams and Interim Report: Link: http://www.duncansteel.com/

According to Ben Sandilands this may imply "that the jet, with 239 people on board, flew in a circular or complex path for 52 minutes off the northern tip of Sumatra before then flying an apparently straight course southwards for more than four hours before running out of fuel off the Indian Ocean coast of Western Australia."

Sandiland also suggests the possibility that systems were tampered with via the unsecured equipment bay readily accessed from a floor panel immediately behind the secured cockpit doors to 777s.

Reference to Diagrams and Sandiland's Article Link: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalk...s-tampering-strengthened-by-study/

I am interested to hear from aviation specialists your thoughts about the possibility that MH370 "flew in a circular or complex path for 52 minutes off the northern tip of Sumatra" before then flying south for more than four hours. What might cause this? What does it mean?
"Who is wise? One who learns from every man."
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:05 am

At this stage almost anything is possible and almost everybody with some kind of interest in anything relevant will occasionally say their 2 cents about MH370... As the mystery of flight MH370 has been going on for over four months now nothing will surprise me except for maybe finding the plane...
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tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 5:33 am

Quoting act (Reply 123):
I am interested to hear from aviation specialists your thoughts about the possibility that MH370 "flew in a circular or complex path for 52 minutes off the northern tip of Sumatra" before then flying south for more than four hours. What might cause this? What does it mean?

I see this as hogwash. It appears to be an invention of a media oriented person or group of people.

You give a link to the Duncan Steel site; what I would like to see is a link to the argument supporting such a theory. I've never even seen an attempt to logically make that case. I have encountered at least one very misinformed person in private exchanges who believes in such a thing, I have explained his error to him but I haven't heard back from him.

His error came after he realized that the distance between the 18:28 ring and the 19:41 ring is only about 135 nm and then made the faulty assumption that the plane flew directly to the closest 19:41 ring position and in so doing wanted to know where the plane traveling almost 500mph spent its time before arriving at the 19:41 ring.

What he failed to understand is that the plane turned south about 18:28 - 18:30 or so and very possibly flew a course on or very close to the ring for a half an hour or so and it was only at 19:41 that Inmarsat logged the BTO burst that defined the ring.

I have chosen to examine a path which would have brought 9M-MRO from a not closely defined point on the 18:28 ring on a route through IGEBO and POVUS; from POVUS it headed more or less straight south on an unknown GS course to the final resting spot.

So my "hinge" is POVUS, not the 19:41 location.

The 19:41 location is determined by speed from POVUS (with the distance from the 19:28 ring to POVUS via IGEBO being known (63nm). At 410 kts it would touch the ring at 1°20'42.39"S 93°34'59.78"E (a point 444nm south of POVUS. At 490 kts, the location would be 2°46'51.36"S 93°25'18.84"E, about 530 nm from POVUS.

For those who use Google Earth I have a KML file which shows the speeds vs locations for 20 kt intervals from 390 to 490 kts.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/u2hv0hfugbxvj4q/MH370.kmz

The reason for examining this path is that it is the shortest possible route from the Strait to the Southern Ocean. Other routings also work out with the known facts.

[Edited 2014-07-15 22:55:03]

[Edited 2014-07-15 22:57:17]
 
mandala499
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:18 am

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 119):
Just had a look on google earth and found pictures of the radar antenna at Medan, and indeed both PSR and SSR radars are mounted one on top of each other.

This one?

That's the civilian PSR/SSR at Polonia.
The military one at Medan is a different one was located off the airport, and was deactivated or moved elsewhere as far as I know.

Off topic, the PSR/SSR at Polonia has now been replaced with the SSR at Kualanamu.
http://m.ak.fbcdn.net/sphotos-e.ak/hphotos-ak-ash4/385168_4108089295479_431456369_n.jpg

Quoting tailskid (Reply 114):
Those are civil aviation radars, not military radars.

This one at Polonia, is covered under regulations and laws requiring backup power etc, with ample budget for the maintenance of the backup diesel generators, etc... and still, useless when there's a power outage as the budget for the generator maintenance was... "not fully utilized correctly". The military ones, isn't guaranteed to not have undergone the same treatment.

I use military equipment from time to time to assist in my flight operations, and seriously, throw out your idealism of "I can't imagine the Indonesians spending a million bucks on a radar and then leaving it vulnerable to someone cutting a power line 20 miles away." We as a country have spent a heck of a lot more on that and left stuff to waste.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:26 am

Quoting ltc8k6 (Reply 131):
The distance between the 6th and 7th arc is ~100km, iirc.


However, that's a deceptive figure.

The actual distance 9M-MRO traveled between these two rings is a function of speed.
With the time known, the distances would be as follows:

9 minutes @ 400 = 60 nm
9 minutes @ 410 = 62 nm
9 minutes @ 430 = 65 nm
9 minutes @ 450 = 68 nm
9 minutes @ 470 = 71 nm
9 minutes @ 490 = 73 nm
 
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gennadius
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:01 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 133):
The last two appear to show pings at 00.11 and 00.19 - but the map shows that they were the same distance apart as the previous hourly pings (that is, some hundreds of miles)?

One more time, in a simple, straight-forward fashion.

The arrows don't mean anything, other than indicating which ring is representative of which time.

So, the distance between the rings that are at 00:11 and 00:19 are most definitely NOT the same distance apart as the previous hourly pings. In fact, the distance between the previous rings all varies...
Per ardua, ad astra
 
Unflug
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:19 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 27):
Moderators, you would do well to heed this. I think it's shameful that you have allowed this to go on for so long. Have you ever considered that, if the families of the pax and crew read this, Captian Shah's family might well be justified in filing a lawsuit for defamation and slander against a.net? If he were my father, I would be talking to a lawyer. Right now. But the real reason to stop this is because it is indecent and shameful. And it would be the right thing to do.

I do not think there is a need to stop these threads. There is a lot of garbage, but that garbage tells more about the respective posters than about anything or anybody else, including captain Shah. Nobody would file a lawsuit based on the “analytical efforts” found in the posts you are referring to.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 134):
If you can understand the above, then there is absolutely no reason for you to ask if there's a better diagram on the ping rings... If you don't understand the above, then there's really not much else we can do to assist. However, if you understand (or claim that you do), and still ask for a better diagram because the ones made don't make sense, then you are simply trolling.
So, do you, or don't you understand the above concept?

Thank you for your patience! Hope your explanation works, holding my breath...
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:49 am

Quoting Unflug (Reply 136):

Holy cow, where have you been? That was posted 10 days ago.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
Unflug
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:59 am

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 137):
Holy cow, where have you been?

Right here  
Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 137):
That was posted 10 days ago.

Did I miss a deadline?
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:37 am

Quoting Unflug (Reply 138):
Did I miss a deadline?

Actually, yes.

You're fired.  wink 

[Edited 2014-07-16 02:43:33]
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:49 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 133):
The last two appear to show pings at 00.11 and 00.19 - but the map shows that they were the same distance apart as the previous hourly pings (that is, some hundreds of miles)?

I think you need to think about scale and the size of the map/drawing.

Now, I didn't make that globe pic, but I would guess that if you drew the last 2 arcs so that they were actually 100km apart on the globe, it would look like one line, so in the interest of clarity and to reflect the fact that there was some spacing, they were drawn with some space between them, when really, they would be almost the same line on that scale.

The small globe pic is not a good way to represent the ping rings, imo.

We can see from this pic, that the arcs are about 100km apart.

http://www.jacc.gov.au//media/releases/2014/april/mr_012-1.jpg

We can also roughly calculate it from other official maps if we really want to.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:53 am

Quoting tailskid (Reply 132):

However, that's a deceptive figure.

The actual distance 9M-MRO traveled between these two rings is a function of speed.
With the time known, the distances would be as follows:

9 minutes @ 400 = 60 nm
9 minutes @ 410 = 62 nm
9 minutes @ 430 = 65 nm
9 minutes @ 450 = 68 nm
9 minutes @ 470 = 71 nm
9 minutes @ 490 = 73 nm

It's a simple figure to work with.

Yes, and none of those are "hundreds of miles".  
 
NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:49 pm

Quoting ltc8k6 (Reply 132):
We can see from this pic, that the arcs are about 100km apart.

In fairness, ltc8k6, those 'pings' were detected (and investigated by ships) some weeks ago - and it was determined (because, I believe, they moved) that they probably came from undersea creatures, and can be discarded. The previous search was a long way south of those indications - and the next search area (starting in about three weeks) will be a long way south of THOSE. Pretty well due west of Perth..........

[Edited 2014-07-16 07:29:40]
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:35 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 134):
In fairness, ltc8k6, those 'pings' were detected (and investigated by ships) some weeks ago - and it was determined (because, I believe, that they moved) that they probably came from undersea creatures, and can be discarded. The previous search was a long way south of those indications - and the next search area (starting in about three weeks) will be a long way south of THOSE. Pretty well due west of Perth..........

The distance between the ULB ping detections gives us a rough scale of the map. That's all. The 600km figure is what we want.

http://www.jacc.gov.au//media/releases/2014/april/mr_012-1.jpg

From that scale we can tell roughly how far apart the 6th and 7th Sat ping arcs are, since they are also plotted on the map.

The 6th and 7th arcs are roughly about 100kms apart, not "hundreds of miles".

While the map is not perfect, it is good enough to rule out "hundreds of miles", and get a better estimate, which is 100kms.
 
NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:39 pm

Quoting ltc8k6 (Reply 135):
While the map is not perfect, it is good enough to rule out "hundreds of miles"

Sorry to 'go on,' mate - but how can you square that with Inmarsat only recording positions once an hour?
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:00 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 136):

Sorry to 'go on,' mate - but how can you square that with Inmarsat only recording positions once an hour?

I don't need to "square" it. I have read the excellent official report that came out a little while ago.

Since I have read the report, I know that two of the pings, #1 and #7, were initiated by the airplane, most likely during power interruptions, and thus wouldn't be on the satellite's hourly "schedule".

I also know that certain events will reset the timer, meaning that the "schedule" is not going to be consistent. I know there were two calls to 9M-MRO via the SAT phone, both of which reset the timer.

I also know that the 7th ping, was only a partial handshake.
 
mandala499
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:15 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 136):
Sorry to 'go on,' mate - but how can you square that with Inmarsat only recording positions once an hour?

I've said it before and I'll say it again...
1. If there are no traffic sent through the satcom, the ground pings the aircraft at once an hour.
2. If there are traffic or calls made/attempted to the aircraft between the pings, this resets the hourly interval.
3. If the satcom loses power and regains power, it will log on back to the network. If the loss of power is temporary, a ping will be commenced from the aircraft. This also resets the hourly interval.

The Inmarsat logs does contain information when the pings were made.
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
weizenjaeger
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:28 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 136):
Sorry to 'go on,' mate - but how can you square that with Inmarsat only recording positions once an hour?

Inmarsat never recorded positions.

They recorded "distances from the satellite".

The plot of a single "distance from the satellite" creates a circle on the Earth's surface. By knowing when MH370 must run out of fuel allows them to erase much of the circle, leaving an arc.

Getting the direction is the trick. Knowing distance and direction gives you position, just as it did 'back in your day'.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:35 am

Quoting weizenjaeger (Reply 139):
Quoting NAV30 (Reply 136):
Sorry to 'go on,' mate - but how can you square that with Inmarsat only recording positions once an hour?

Inmarsat never recorded positions.

They recorded "distances from the satellite".

The plot of a single "distance from the satellite" creates a circle on the Earth's surface. By knowing when MH370 must run out of fuel allows them to erase much of the circle, leaving an arc.

Getting the direction is the trick. Knowing distance and direction gives you position, just as it did 'back in your day'.

Good explanation.

I think that is as simple as it can be explained, NAV30. In fact, that is pretty much how it was explained when the arc was first released, so nothing new?

I am wondering if such handshakes will now or in the future include the location of the aircraft given what has happened to MH370 and just how useful such info would be in regards to solving this mystery or preventing another aircraft from going missing for so long...
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NAV30
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:37 am

Thanks for the info, guys.

I find this nothing short of astonishing:-

"Investigators say what little evidence they have to work with, including the loss of communications, suggests the Boeing 777 was deliberately diverted thousands of kilometres from its scheduled route.

"The area being mapped is largely uncharted. Mr Luijnenburg said the area's remoteness and depth at 6,000 metres placed it beyond the reach of the oil industry, which is still pushing down to depths approaching 3,000 metres."


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-2...to-previously-scoured-area/5537546

Earlier articles have said that the cost so far (mainly borne by Australia; Malaysia isn't 'pulling its weight,' not sure about China) is already close to $100M.. Just the preparatory work for the next phase is estimated to cost another $60M. There were only six Aussies on the aeroplane. Room for some pretty hollow laughs if the aeroplane eventually turns out to have crashed further north - which remains entirely possible..........

Another possible problem is that it may not be feasible to recover any parts of the aeroplane (or the occupants) at a depth of 6,000 metres - which is near enough to 20,000 feet in the 'old money.'
 
LTC8K6
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:19 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 141):
Another possible problem is that it may not be feasible to recover any parts of the aeroplane (or the occupants) at a depth of 6,000 metres - which is near enough to 20,000 feet in the 'old money.'
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=38144

"REMUS 6000
Deep Ocean, Large Area Search/Survey

The REMUS 6000 is an innovative, versatile research tool designed to operate in depths ranging from 25 meters (82 feet) to 6,000 meters (19,685 feet or 3.73 miles), allowing for a wide range of autonomous operations."

First we have to find it.

As far as recovery, the CVR from SAA flight 295 was recovered from 4,900 meters after a year, and it still had some useable recordings. That was in 1989. I would bet that we have the capability to get much deeper today.

[Edited 2014-07-17 04:46:03]
 
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777Jet
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:47 pm

Another loss of a 777 for MH  
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747megatop
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:13 pm

I think this is unprecedented in MH history? Loss of 2 777s in 1 year?

- http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/17/world/...irlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
 
LH707330
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:39 pm

Quoting 747megatop (Reply 144):
I think this is unprecedented in MH history? Loss of 2 777s in 1 year?

Yes, it's also unprecedented for any year to have 2 777 crashes, let alone two at the same carrier.

Until we know what happened to MH17, however, we should try to stay on topic here.
 
tailskid
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:11 pm

Up until March of this year it was unprecedented to have any loss of life accident with a 777.

The town of Torez ( 48° 1'0.00"N 38°37'60.00"E) where the crash is reported to be lies 119 nm south of a GC route between Amsterdam and Kuala Lumpur. It is about 35 nm east of Donetsk.
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:13 pm

Quoting sipadan (Reply 147):
US intel CONFIRMS MH17 was shot down.

Yes, apparently by a BUK (SA-11) missile system.

Quoting tailskid (Reply 146):
Up until March of this year it was unprecedented to have any loss of life accident with a 777.

Now 2 have been lost by the same carrier in under 5 months. I wonder how MA will recover from this? 2 A/C, search cost, 2 flight crew, incredible loss of pax life.

Any thoughts on how MH17 might affect the search for MH170?
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
Viscount724
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:32 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 145):
Quoting 747megatop (Reply 144):
I think this is unprecedented in MH history? Loss of 2 777s in 1 year?

Yes, it's also unprecedented for any year to have 2 777 crashes, let alone two at the same carrier.

Three 777 losses in only very slightly over one year, counting Asiana at SFO July 6, 2013.
 
sipadan
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RE: Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 69

Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:37 pm

Quoting LovesCoffee (Reply 148):
Any thoughts on how MH17 might affect the search for MH170?

Great question. I wouldn't think it to be helpful what with MAS now in a state of paralysis (or frenzy, take your pick). However, there is always that nebulous law of unforeseen consequences.

They (MAS) must be devastated by this, both professionally and personally. They lost ANOTHER family (crew) in a span of 4 months. I truly can't imagine.

H20 (Hishammuddin) is probably smirking quietly in his luxury cabana, now that he is no longer the transportation minister.

My karma reference was solely directed towards him, just to be clear.

How do you think it will affect it?

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