Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2015

LAXintl · Tue Mar 31, 2015 4:17 pm

Back by request, here is the Spring 2015 update on commercial aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

As before, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also based on oldest to newest airframes for some common models.

A319 – $7.5 - 37.0M, $120-320,000
A320 – $3.5 - 44.0M, $60-390,000
A321 – $8.5 - 52.0M, $100-440,000
A330-200 – $19.0 - 93.5M, $225-820,000
A330-300 - $16.0 - 105.0M, $200-920,000
A340-300 – $5.0 -24.0M, $110-300,000
A340-600 - $18.0 - $42.0M, $225-360,000
A380-800 - $124.0 - 225.0M, $1,150-2,000,000
B737-300 – $1.0 – 3.0M, $40-75,000
B737-700 - $11.0 - 37.0M, $140-330,000
B737-800 - $13.8 - 48.3M, $195-410,000
B747-400 – $7.5 – 27.0M, $170-350,000
B757-200 – $3.5 – 15.0M, $80-200,000
B767-300ER – $5.5 – 65.0M, $150-480,000
B777-200ER – $23.0 – 99.0M, $360-800,000
B777-300ER – $74.0 – 167.0M, $700-1,550,000
B787-8 - $93.0 - 120.0M, $800-1,100,000
MD-11F - $3.7 – 13.9M , $75-155,000
MD-82 - $0.4 - 1.1M, $20-50,000
CRJ200 – $1.0 - 3.8M, $35-55,000
CRJ700 – $7.0 – 20.0M, $80-185,000
CRJ900 - $9.8 – 25.0M, $100-225,000
Q400 – $7.5 – 21.5M, $90-185,000
ERJ145 – $2.0 – 6.5M, $45-70,000
EMB170 – $10.5 – 26.0M, $115-215,000
EMB190 – $16.0 – 33.0M, $165-290,000
ATR-72 – $6.5 – 21.0M, $80-185,000

The information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuations and is current as of February 2015.

The long time bargain still remains the MD-80 series, which you can lease for the price of a new car though others like the 737-300 are getting close as well.
Pricing on some narrowbodies such as A320 and 738 ticked up slightly, while models like the A340, B744, MD11 and CR2s continue their descend.

Sources: IBA/Ascend

bjorn14 · Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:37 pm

I was just thinkking about this thread and wondering the value of a 734. It seems a popular NCAA charter plane. Thanks again LAXintl.

lightsaber · Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:59 am

A CR2 is worth more than a 733?!?
You sure its not April 1st where you are posting?

Lightsaber

PS, I look forward to these threads.

LAXintl · Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:24 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 1):
and wondering the value of a 734

B737-400 – $1.4 – 4.5M, $50-100,000

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 2):
A CR2 is worth more than a 733?!?

Thats what it says.

[Edited 2015-04-01 07:24:54]

STT757 · Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:39 pm

What about the 757-300?

LAXintl · Wed Apr 01, 2015 4:26 pm

There is not much of a secondary market for the 753, with no recent transaction history to go on.

Planesmart · Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:59 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5):
There is not much of a secondary market for the 753, with no recent transaction history to go on.

Not much of a secondary market for the A380 yet, but hasn't stopped someone coming up with numbers. On that basis 748 should be there too.

As planes get older, accentuated by size, there are so many below the line sweeteners, such numbers are extremely hypothetical. Cashbacks, fit out credits, lease holidays, condition credits..............

LAXintl · Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:36 pm

Quoting planesmart (Reply 6):
Not much of a secondary market for the A380 yet, but hasn't stopped someone coming up with numbers.

There actually has been many secondary market transactions on the A380. Carriers have done sale-lease backs, and there are leasing firms actively market frames for example.

roseflyer · Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:37 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Pricing on some narrowbodies such as A320 and 738 ticked up slightly,

That doesn't surprise me. The used market is quite strong right now with low oil prices and a strong north american economy. Many airlines are shopping for used airplanes.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
A319 – $7.5 - 37.0M, $120-320,000
A320 – $3.5 - 44.0M, $60-390,000

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
B737-700 - $11.0 - 37.0M, $140-330,000
B737-800 - $13.8 - 48.3M, $195-410,000

It looks like the 737NGs are maintaining the small 5% or so price premium over A319s and A320s of equal vintage. I guess this is why we are seeing Allegiant and some used airlines purchase the Airbus planes.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Q400 – $7.5 – 21.5M, $90-185,000

Yikes, that is expensive. Personally I'd prefer a used 757 over a Q400 for my own personal fleet, but freight airlines like FedEx are buying everyone that shows up on the used market.

LAXintl · Wed Apr 01, 2015 10:59 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 8):
Personally I'd prefer a used 757 over a Q400 for my own personal fleet, but freight airlines like FedEx are buying everyone that shows up on the used market.

Go ahead and get your 757. FX is done. They stopped reserving conversion spots and stated they will end at about 120 frames once they exhaust the UA feedstock.

SEPilot · Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:32 am

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 8):
It looks like the 737NGs are maintaining the small 5% or so price premium over A319s and A320s of equal vintage. I guess this is why we are seeing Allegiant and some used airlines purchase the Airbus planes.

I have noticed that this seems to be pretty consistent. What is the reason? From what I have seen, there have been more airlines switching from the 737 to the A320 than the other way, which would indicate to me that the A320 should be the one with the premium. Any insights?

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 8):

Yikes, that is expensive. Personally I'd prefer a used 757 over a Q400 for my own personal fleet, but freight airlines like FedEx are buying everyone that shows up on the used market.

Or you could get one with winglets; FX does not want those. But it will cost a lot more for the care and feeding of a 757 than a Q400.

UsAir737 · Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:45 am

I'm surprised the 757 doesn't have a higher price given it seems to be the only A/C capable of carrying fish

UA444 · Thu Apr 02, 2015 3:14 am

There are more A320s out there than 737NG and more older ones due to EIS being 10 years prior so of course the prices would be lower. The NEO is also much closer to EIS which drives the price lower.

LAXintl · Thu Apr 02, 2015 3:20 am

I know in case of A320 vs B738 one factor historically has been is greater revenue potential of the Boeing model since it can seat more.

lightsaber · Thu Apr 02, 2015 4:13 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
The long time bargain still remains the MD-80 series, which you can lease for the price of a new car though others like the 737-300 are getting close as well.

I'm still amazed at how much 733 prices have fallen. That shows what happens when the major buyers turn into sellers.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 8):
The used market is quite strong right now with low oil prices and a strong north american economy. Many airlines are shopping for used airplanes.

With all the turbulent news, that is actually a very good indicator the economy is doing well. It also shows the aircraft dropping rapidly in price just do not have a niche anymore. Some due to age. Some as they're losing their relative 'economy of scale' due to declining active fleet sizes.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 9):
Go ahead and get your 757. FX is done. They stopped reserving conversion spots and stated they will end at about 120 frames once they exhaust the UA feedstock.

I'm sad to hear that. Partially as that means FX isn't going to expand much. I thought perhaps growth in China would allow more 757 conversions. Cest la vie. If FX isn't buying anymore, that will soften 757 prices. In particular once A321NEOs arrive in quantity.

Lightsaber

seahawk · Thu Apr 02, 2015 5:43 am

A well maintained 737-300/400 seems like a bargain.

SEPilot · Thu Apr 02, 2015 9:08 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 12):
There are more A320s out there than 737NG and more older ones due to EIS being 10 years prior so of course the prices would be lower. The NEO is also much closer to EIS which drives the price lower.

The key part of the quote is "of comparable vintage." The top price for the 737NG's is also higher than the top price for the A320. And this has been true for as long as I have seen the figures, which is since before the NEO was announced; it goes back since about 2006. I have never seen a similar chart where the prices and lease rates for the A320 went higher than the ones for the 737NG at the top, and the comparable 737's were all higher.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13):
I know in case of A320 vs B738 one factor historically has been is greater revenue potential of the Boeing model since it can seat more.

This is consistent with the current chart, because the A319 and 73G are just about even. So maybe that is what I have been seeing.

roseflyer · Thu Apr 02, 2015 12:59 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 8):
It looks like the 737NGs are maintaining the small 5% or so price premium over A319s and A320s of equal vintage. I guess this is why we are seeing Allegiant and some used airlines purchase the Airbus planes.

I have noticed that this seems to be pretty consistent. What is the reason? From what I have seen, there have been more airlines switching from the 737 to the A320 than the other way, which would indicate to me that the A320 should be the one with the premium. Any insights?

I think that the 737NG has almost always had a higher sales price than the A320. In fuel burn per seat, depending on configuration and vintage, 737-800s are usually have about 1-5% lower fuel burn. Boeing and Airbus play cat and mouse with who has the lowest maintenance costs and reliability numbers, but the 737 usually has a bit of an edge there when the airplane gets older. I think these are some of the top reasons why 737s maintain higher value.

Quoting UA444 (Reply 12):
There are more A320s out there than 737NG and more older ones due to EIS being 10 years prior so of course the prices would be lower. The NEO is also much closer to EIS which drives the price lower.

For an airplane with the same number of flight hours and flight cycles, the 737-800 has a higher leasing/purchase price. This has been consistent in the numbers for as long as I have seen them.

Stitch · Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:42 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 8):
It looks like the 737NGs are maintaining the small 5% or so price premium over A319s and A320s of equal vintage.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 10):
I have noticed that this seems to be pretty consistent. What is the reason?

IMO, it's a mix of the historically higher production rate of the A320 (so more airframes delivered each year) and the historically more aggressive discounting Airbus does to support that higher production rate (offset by the lower production costs of that rate, so margins should be generally unaffected). So you have a larger installed base and the Average Sales Price of that installed base is lower.

runningonempty · Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:44 pm

I love these threads: Thanks for posting!

Do you per chance have info on the Dash 8 smaller variants?

Thanks again!

DiamondFlyer · Thu Apr 02, 2015 3:01 pm

Out of curiosity, is there any info on the DC-9, or are the transactions so limited there is nothing on it.

-DiamondFlyer

LAXintl · Thu Apr 02, 2015 5:41 pm

Quoting runningonempty (Reply 19):
Do you per chance have info on the Dash 8 smaller variants?

Q200 – $5.0 – 8.0M, $60-85,000
Q300 – $6.5 – 9.5M, $75-100,000

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 20):
Out of curiosity, is there any info on the DC-9, or are the transactions so limited there is nothing on it.

Sorry nothing on any DC-9s. Scrap value basically.

UA444 · Thu Apr 02, 2015 6:16 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 21):

Anything on DC-10 or same story as DC-9?

rojo · Thu Apr 02, 2015 6:22 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13):
I know in case of A320 vs B738 one factor historically has been is greater revenue potential of the Boeing model since it can seat more.

It can seat 3 more now (186 seats on A320 vs 189 seats on 738). Will the 3 extra seats make it a huge revenue potential to make the Boeing more expensive than the Airbus?

http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...featuring-the-airbus-space-flex-c/

Spacepope · Thu Apr 02, 2015 6:54 pm

Quoting UA444 (Reply 22):
Anything on DC-10 or same story as DC-9?

I'd assume so. Even less transactional activity than the -9

Strangely Aeronaves TSM looks to be taking both of the long-stored ex-Evergreen DC-9-15Fs (one already delivered) and a Convair 640 (a pretty rare bird nowadays). Pretty rare transactions that should just be viewed as one-offs, just like the CV-340s that have been pushed into service in Florida. Nice breakup of monotony though.

Stitch · Thu Apr 02, 2015 6:57 pm

Quoting rojo (Reply 23):
It can seat 3 more now (186 seats on A320 vs 189 seats on 738). Will the 3 extra seats make it a huge revenue potential to make the Boeing more expensive than the Airbus?

It should be noted that the Space-Flex option is relatively new. The difference over the history of the two types has been more in the neighborhood of a dozen or more seats (depending on the configuration).

mercure1 · Thu Apr 02, 2015 7:42 pm

Quoting rojo (Reply 23):
It can seat 3 more now (186 seats on A320 vs 189 seats on 738). Will the 3 extra seats make it a huge revenue potential to make the Boeing more expensive than the Airbus?

Really does nothing for all the thousand of aircraft on the market today. It cost money to modify, while 738 comes ready out of the box.

Also don't forget Boeing has its own option, the 737MAX-200 which is a MAX-8 but seats 200.

So Airbus is again at disadvantage.

LAXintl · Fri Apr 03, 2015 2:47 pm

Quoting UA444 (Reply 22):
Anything on DC-10 or same story as DC-9?

No nothing on the DC-10. Essentially scrap value.

zeke · Fri Apr 03, 2015 2:54 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):

I don't think it's got anything to do with that, the A320 flew 6-7 years before the 737NG. Some of those A319/A320 are older than 733/734s and those aircraft are commanding less.

DiamondFlyer · Fri Apr 03, 2015 3:32 pm

Quoting spacepope (Reply 24):
Strangely Aeronaves TSM looks to be taking both of the long-stored ex-Evergreen DC-9-15Fs (one already delivered) and a Convair 640 (a pretty rare bird nowadays).

It's really not that strange. They do quite a bit of on-demand flying in the US for automotive cargo, plus whatever all they do down in Mexico. The -15RC's are common to that market.

-DiamondFlyer

76er · Fri Apr 03, 2015 3:47 pm

Any word on the 744F, ERF, BCF and BDSF?

canadianpylon · Sun Apr 05, 2015 12:08 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

Q400 – $7.5 – 21.5M, $90-185,000
ATR-72 – $6.5 – 21.0M, $80-185,000

I always thought the ATRs were significantly cheaper to acquire than the Q400s, in addition to being cheaper to operate. Seems like the acquisition costs are the same.

LAXintl · Sun Apr 05, 2015 12:37 am

Quoting 76er (Reply 30):
Any word on the 744F, ERF, BCF and BDSF?

B747-400F - $23.2 - 54.7M, $255-435,000
B747-400ERF - $36.5 - 57.8M, $375-445,000

I dont have anything on the BCF/BDSF but consider most of that converted fleet has been grounded I doubt it holds much value at the moment.

Quoting canadianpylon (Reply 31):
I always thought the ATRs were significantly cheaper to acquire than the Q400s, in addition to being cheaper to operate. Seems like the acquisition costs are the same.

Remember the top end ATR72 cost is for the brand new -600 series with all its tech and cabin bells and whistles such as IFE which has only been delivering for a short period. You can still get the slightly more basic -500 for lower pricing.

ATR72-500 - $4.2 – 17.5M, $60-155,000

Operating cost, yes the Q400 is more costly to operate per block hour.

Independence76 · Sun Apr 05, 2015 1:49 am

What do the lease prices on Airbus A318s look like?

astuteman · Sun Apr 05, 2015 5:20 am

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 17):
I think these are some of the top reasons why 737s maintain higher value.

5% is roughly commensurate with the slight difference in capacity I would have thought.

Rgds

AirlineCritic · Sun Apr 05, 2015 11:44 am

Quoting UsAir737 (Reply 11):

I'm surprised the 757 doesn't have a higher price

Interesting. The A321 price range is multiple times the price range of a 757. Even with some likely age differences in the comparison, that speaks volumes. We should remember this in the next "bring back the 757" thread

OldAeroGuy · Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:00 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
A340-600 - $18.0 - $42.0M, $225-360,000

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
B777-300ER – $74.0 – 167.0M, $700-1,550,000

And the 773ER is worth about 4 times more than the A346.

Pelle · Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:28 am

Why the relatively huge price increase from the 737 classic to the newer generations? An NG costs roughly 10 times that of a classic - surely the difference in fuel economy is not that big as to justify this discount for the classic?

Stitch · Mon Apr 06, 2015 1:17 pm

Quoting Pelle (Reply 37):
Why the relatively huge price increase from the 737 classic to the newer generations? An NG costs roughly 10 times that of a classic - surely the difference in fuel economy is not that big as to justify this discount for the classic?

The 737 Next Generation brings a lot more to the table than just lower fuel burn compared to the 737 Classic. Lower maintenance costs. Better performance. Newer system technologies. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Devilfish · Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:30 pm

Made glaring by their absence in the OP list are the Airbus A345 and ATR42. Couldn't the few A345 conversions to VIP aircraft be considered as legitimate sales and therefore valid as price reference basis for the remaining A345s yet unsold, or are most already spoken for and to be parted out?

Also, recent years saw a decline in new orders for the smaller ATR42 which could indicate operators are holding on to their current fleet...or that those are being parked in favor of the bigger ATR72 and just waiting for better offers. Otherwise, there must currently be active secondary trades of ATR42s from which transaction prices could be derived.

enilria · Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:59 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
A319 – $7.5 - 37.0M, $120-320,000
A320 – $3.5 - 44.0M, $60-390,000

Seems surprising to me that the A319 could be worth more than the A320 given the demand for the A319 seems to be waning and moving toward larger aircraft. I can only assume this is aberrant in that perhaps the oldest A320s are older and in worse shape which makes an unweighted comparison difficult.

Stitch · Mon Apr 06, 2015 5:02 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 40):
Seems surprising to me that the A319 could be worth more than the A320 given the demand for the A319 seems to be waning and moving toward larger aircraft. I can only assume this is aberrant in that perhaps the oldest A320s are older and in worse shape which makes an unweighted comparison difficult.

In addition to (likely) having more hours and cycles, the earliest A320-200s have lower operating weights and systems and that impacts their value.

LAXintl · Mon Apr 06, 2015 5:59 pm

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 39):
Made glaring by their absence in the OP list are the Airbus A345 and ATR42.

Not glaring at all.

I have info on many dozen models, I just don't list them all for sake of brevity.

ATR42 - $4.2 – 16.0M, $60-140,000

A340-500 - $16.0 - 30.0M, $200-325,000

Devilfish · Mon Apr 06, 2015 6:15 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 42):

Thanks for that...

LAXintl · Tue Apr 07, 2015 2:41 pm

Quoting Pelle (Reply 37):
Why the relatively huge price increase from the 737 classic to the newer generations? An NG costs roughly 10 times that of a classic - surely the difference in fuel economy is not that big as to justify this discount for the classic?

You realize the age factor also right?

The last classic (-400) was delivered 15-years ago. The average age of the classic fleet is 23 with hundreds of them in the desert.
The US3 airlines have retired their entire fleets of the model.

The 737 classic is a fast dying breed, not far behind the MD-80 series.

DiamondFlyer · Tue Apr 07, 2015 2:47 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 44):
The 737 classic is a fast dying breed, not far behind the MD-80 series.

Yet both the classics and MD80 have found limited roles as freighters. I would expect to see a few more of each made into freighters down the road as well.

-DiamondFlyer

LAXintl · Tue Apr 07, 2015 5:45 pm

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 45):
Yet both the classics and MD80 have found limited roles as freighters. I would expect to see a few more of each made into freighters down the road as well.

Thats a small niche.

Of 1988 classic's built, how many more freighters will there be - 50, 75, 100?

Still a very small fraction with remainder of type becoming recycled material.

SXI899 · Wed Apr 08, 2015 10:14 am

I'd be interested to see whether there is data available for the other smaller props (ie. Fokker 50, Saab 340).
For the these type I expect that the market is fairly small, so there might not be any info.

bobdino · Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:04 am

Thanks; I always enjoy this thread.

Is there data on the 737-900 and 737-900ER ?

KFlyer · Wed Apr 08, 2015 3:16 pm

Thanks a lot LAXIntl for this very important information. Any info on A300F and 332 freighter variants?

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